Search found 942 matches

by z3r0c00l
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it 1996 yet?
Replies: 21
Views: 2498

Re: Is it 1996 yet?

I would guess it is later, perhaps 1998 looking at the Nasdaq! : ) Of course the two are not comparable but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see another 50% in US stocks before the next recession. I can tell you one thing, it takes discipline to hold stocks when they do well but it would be painful...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10691

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

A bubble for sure, but hard to call the top.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds: Why?
Replies: 29
Views: 2291

Re: Bonds: Why?

If you do a search of this forum on this topic, be prepared to spend about a week reading all of the almost identical posts where this is covered. It becomes a personal choice rather than a set rule. Many, like me, select bonds because they can be purchased or sold at any time in any increments one ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13815

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

UncleLongHair wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:10 pm
As Warren Buffett has said, "'A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.'" Lots of people in 2000 and 2007 thought that holding cash was foolish too.
With 20/20 hindsight, are you saying that going cash in 2000 at Dow 10,000 was smart?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13815

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Safe bonds are not dangerous, inflation may be however. A valid question is if safe bonds will beat inflation going forward.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?
Replies: 8
Views: 944

Re: Why is there talk of a bond bubble?

Investing talk is primarily driven by poorly informed articles calculated to be click bait. The most shocking language possible is the key there. It misunderstands both bonds and bubbles. If you want to look for a bubble, look at bitcoin over the next few years.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8969

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Some important details missing here, such as home ownership, life partner, family/dependents, health insurance and medical history, pensions, and actual value of investments at this time. Working part time as a librarian to me means no pension or insurance, which would require a hefty amount of cash...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3450

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

Market cap works on every other scale for diversification and ease of passive indexing, why anyone would want to stop at international is beyond me. The common answer, that international companies do business in the US and vice versa falls flat. As if one would eschew Nestle, Samsung, or Toyota beca...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Replacing 0% I-bond... or not?
Replies: 3
Views: 376

Re: Replacing 0% I-bond... or not?

I-bonds are at their best after the 5 years, I wouldn't drop it now.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014
Replies: 38
Views: 3533

Re: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:08 pm

Image
The most heartening thing about this graph is how many years are above zero compared to those below.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014
Replies: 38
Views: 3533

Re: History of World Stock Market Bubbles, 1900-2014

To get to the classic bubbles of old, like the South Sea scheme, one has to think about 5 - 10 fold increases in a few years followed by 70 - 90% declines. Perhaps stocks in the 1920's satisfied that, as did dot-coms from 1997, maybe even the Nikkei 225 between 1986 and 1993. But far better modern e...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or Sell?
Replies: 13
Views: 1020

Re: Keep or Sell?

Was a mistake to buy in the first place, so I would personally sell it. These stocks are volatile and, even though precious metals are useful, their value is highly fickle because value depends also on speculation, not just industrial use. Also consider the massive ecological damage the mining cause...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.
Replies: 51
Views: 5444

Re: Stocks go up, bonds fall. Stock fall, bonds also fall.

Stocks are up today and bonds (VBTLX) fall. Stocks were falling yesterday and bonds also fall. Has everyone holding bond funds simply made peace with the fact that bonds are practically useless until there is a 25%+ drop in the market? I can't convince myself to keep holding bonds. I love bonds and...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Multi-year investment results by Vanguard
Replies: 11
Views: 896

Re: Question: Multi-year investment results by Vanguard

I certainly would love to see more data, what is the harm in having the max for any given fund or stock? Google Finance also cuts things off rather early, as if loading a spreadsheet of data would take more than an hour or two for a summer intern.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 91, 01, 09. Then 19? [Year for next market crash]
Replies: 27
Views: 2624

Re: 91, 01, 09. Then 19? [Year for next market crash]

Of course numerology has no real utility here, but if we keep going until 2019 I would be pretty happy with that result. Maybe another 50% bump in that time, wouldn't be so bad. Then let's say a modest 30% decline and recession, would still have been a good recovery and the best stretch of market in...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing the Bond Market/Interet Rates
Replies: 10
Views: 1164

Re: Timing the Bond Market/Interet Rates

There are valid reasons to consider alternatives to bond funds, such as a ladder of 5 year CDs, but there is no way to time the bond market or interest rates effectively. Tens of trillions of dollars (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/mspd/2017/opds092017.pdf) are in play in bond market...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are various investments impacted by inflation?
Replies: 21
Views: 1606

Re: How sensitive are various instruments to inflation?

A good time to start thinking about inflation, it may not stay low forever. (But attempts to forecast changes in inflation are less than useless, they could actually confound proper investing.) If you want a sure thing in the face of inflation, I Bonds would be the word. Stocks are expected to do we...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD
Replies: 26
Views: 2740

Re: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD

I am at about 15% for my 401K for the year. 70/30 allocation explains much of that, but also consider that the money added during this year has not had full exposure to the gains of the year either, that is significant for those of us early on in the process of saving. Could have been 100% US equiti...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)
Replies: 70
Views: 6657

Re: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)

Stock markets have gone to zero and others have peaked and then never regained that high mark. They don't always go up and don't always recover. Now in the first example, going to zero, I doubt bonds would have done much good. But the more moderate examples, such as Japan, show the benefit of intern...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3903

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

I have been going back through some of the oldest threads on this forum, to fall 2007 to see what people were saying just before things turned south. My impression is that no one had any idea what was about to happen which is no shock. News came out about mortgage issues and the story broke before t...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increase buying 100%
Replies: 69
Views: 6732

Re: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increase buying 100%

I feel better at times like these because most of my stuck buying is in the 401K, money I can't touch for decades and anyway, half of those equities are international which are not so hot. But don't delude yourself into thinking this is some kind of strategy or system. If you go 50/50 you may never ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pulling some profits
Replies: 13
Views: 2026

Re: Pulling some profits

Now it isn't just the loss of 12% (thousands if you sold a significant fraction) but also the even more difficult position of wondering if you should get back in now before it is too late, or if your correction has only been delayed by a few months. This is why you have to either stick with stocks o...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds - now or wait? [November 2017 rate]
Replies: 40
Views: 5754

Re: IBonds - now or wait?

For simplicity sake, I would suggest buying $10k now so that you're done with I-Bonds for the year. Just a reminder to wait until the end of the month (or a few days before the end of the month to be safe) since you will get the full month's interest on the I-bond and can keep the money in a bank a...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBonds - now or wait? [November 2017 rate]
Replies: 40
Views: 5754

Re: IBonds - now or wait?

For simplicity sake, I would suggest buying $10k now so that you're done with I-Bonds for the year. Just a reminder to wait until the end of the month (or a few days before the end of the month to be safe) since you will get the full month's interest on the I-bond and can keep the money in a bank a...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parental life insurance: Surrender or sell?
Replies: 13
Views: 1629

Re: Parental life insurance: Surrender or sell?

Update: Coventry has come back with a low 5 figure offer that becomes a high 4 figure amount once they deduct the cost of putting the policy back in good standing. (It has entered some kind of probationary period and is using the lapse protection money now.) I am today going to review the 50 pages o...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate mystery
Replies: 24
Views: 2006

Re: I Bond fixed rate mystery

Barring that, their rates seem arbitrary from the outside and generally on the downward trend. The fixed rate has varied between 0.0% and 0.20% over the last five years. No downward trend there. What about 20 years? And in 3 more years, $10K of EE bonds will be worth $20K. However, it's likely that...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate mystery
Replies: 24
Views: 2006

Re: I Bond fixed rate mystery

Most helpful, thanks! I also love I-Bonds and continue to purchase the max every year in November, got on that cycle after fixed rate first hit zero and figured I might as well wait a bit to see if it goes up. There must be a person or a few people in a room somewhere figuring out the fixed rate, bu...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond fixed rate mystery
Replies: 24
Views: 2006

Re: I Bond fixed rate mystery

Would be interesting to find out specifically who sets this rate and interview them. Barring that, their rates seem arbitrary from the outside and generally on the downward trend. It wouldn't be shocking to see the fixed rate removed entirely some day or to see the entire program discontinued. I don...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4410

Re: Offensive Valuations

Can't revenue increase too?
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2319

Re: Very confused by Bonds

Not sure you can do much better than CDs in bonds that are safe, but you can certainly avoid the complexities of buying your own individual bonds from the government. I suggest a bond mutual fund which owns thousands of different bonds in various proportions to give you exposure to government and co...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3456

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

What would a “deflating” be like to those of us holding broad index funds including investment grade corporate bonds? The 7-year yield on 2/27/1987 was 7.00%, and on 9/30/1987 it was 9.50%: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=flfS. That would have resulted in a capital return of about -11.8% and a...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3456

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

A horrible year for bonds: -8% A horrible day for stocks: -20% I don't want to confuse volatility with risk since Bonds have had worse 20 year+ runs than stocks, 1940 - 1980 was pretty miserable, but this is why "bond bubble" sounds so funny. A bubble is a mania where prices are driven to extremes ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3456

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

A horrible year for bonds: -8% A horrible day for stocks: -20% I don't want to confuse volatility with risk since Bonds have had worse 20 year+ runs than stocks, 1940 - 1980 was pretty miserable, but this is why "bond bubble" sounds so funny. A bubble is a mania where prices are driven to extremes a...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield vs. 10 year gov't bond
Replies: 10
Views: 997

Re: Dividend yield vs. 10 year gov't bond

Be sure to subtract the .5 - 1.5% Janus ERs from those dividends. A company more interested in selling new products than speaking frankly to customers about total return.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are international bond yields so low? Or put another way, why are US bond yields so high?
Replies: 6
Views: 565

Re: Why are international bond yields so low? Or put another way, why are US bond yields so high?

Differences in inflation and currencies explain most of it. Looking at bond yields in isolation, without considering inflation, is almost meaningless.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Magazine
Replies: 20
Views: 2982

Re: REIT Magazine

Always got the impression seeking alpha was click bait. Maybe just the articles from them that wind up on Google Finance...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?
Replies: 47
Views: 4550

Re: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?

Including emergency fund, 50% iBonds and 50% Vanguard total bond and a similar in the 401K. Not super concerned about past performance, expect both to about break even after inflation rather than trying to tweak some profit out of them. These investments help make investing in stocks palatable.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Magazine
Replies: 20
Views: 2982

Re: REIT Magazine

Love the idea of REITs, no tax-free space for them : (
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5118

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

Stock dividends are another mystery. The company gives you more shares but the share prices drop in value. So again, why give the stock dividend? Nothing has changed. Its like a stock split. I am at once disappointed and vindicated that you said this. As I have maintained through the whole thread, ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5118

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

The dividends don't give you more money because they reduce the stock price on ex-dividend date by same amount of dividend. The chart you posted just shows the returns with or without dividends reinvested. If you don't reinvest the dividend, the return will be lower because the stock price dropped ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5118

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

That is also the purpose of share buybacks. If you want to extract capital from your investment you get to do it on your terms and timing - not the businesses. The emphasis on higher share price at all costs is a recipe for more Enrons. I would prefer a company set and stick to a policy of returnin...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5118

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I just don't understand the purpose of dividends. I can make my own dividend by selling shares. The purpose of dividends is to give a share of the profits to shareholders. That is also the purpose of share buybacks. If you want to extract capital from your investment you get to do it on your terms ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5118

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I just don't understand the purpose of dividends. I can make my own dividend by selling shares. The purpose of dividends is to give a share of the profits to shareholders. That is also the purpose of share buybacks. If you want to extract capital from your investment you get to do it on your terms ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5118

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I just don't understand the purpose of dividends. I can make my own dividend by selling shares. The purpose of dividends is to give a share of the profits to shareholders. If you buy 10% of a pizza place, do you want 10% of the profits each month or do you want your 10% share to swell in value and ...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5118

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

I don't even understand Dividends are real net payments to the shareholders by the company, but only looking at the end of the story prevents us from seeing this. When a dividend is given, the share price does drop by an equal amount meaning no net change on that day. But during the months before? ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US dollar fails, are stocks safe?
Replies: 44
Views: 5950

Re:

I've heard the 'population bomb' miscalculation argument many times before, but it is irrelevant. I'm glad some alarmist book got the time frame wrong, but since 1985, species continue to massively die off, human beings continue to replicate on an exponential path, we were a phone call away from ne...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925
Replies: 29
Views: 1816

Re: Stockcharts.com has an S&P 500 Daily chart going back to 1925

My goodness... bottoming out at 4.4 in the GD. Really puts the 82-2000 run in perspective too.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond return negative. CD or money market alternative.
Replies: 30
Views: 3405

Re: Bond return negative. CD or money market alternative.

Knowing how bonds have done this year is nearly meaningless when it comes to deciding what will happen next year. If interest rates simply hold steady, a diversified intermediate bond fund should match or beat CDs. If rates drop a bit over the next year, bonds could outperform significantly. If rate...