Search found 992 matches

by z3r0c00l
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing in a Bear Market
Replies: 7
Views: 584

Re: Rebalancing in a Bear Market

Not sure there is any single answer to this, as it depends on your own personal situation as well as various concerns from taxation to psychology. I personally prefer to use new contributions to simply keep the balance, but in extreme times or as one ages and has more invested, that won't work. I li...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected return of US vs International, basic question
Replies: 26
Views: 1374

Re: Expected return of US vs International, basic question

Expectations are meaningless to me. Why own stocks, then? Sorry, I can elaborate further. The expectations of other people are meaningless to me. My expectations are okay because they are based on 130 years of data and make no claim to predict the near future for a recursively fractal system. If on...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected return of US vs International, basic question
Replies: 26
Views: 1374

Re: Expected return of US vs International, basic question

Expectations are meaningless to me. I agree that is a reasonable guess from a starting point where US stocks "cost more" e.g. have higher P/E ratios. But it is only a guess. And also, investing in stocks doesn't really allow one to safely alter their stock holdings at such a frequent rate. We can't ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a MLM? American Inst of Cert Tax Planners
Replies: 8
Views: 848

Re: Is this a MLM? American Inst of Cert Tax Planners

It sounds less like an MLM and more like a fake seminar/school scam, like Trump University et al. Now students are out big bucks from a worthless training and no one wants to hire them. The victim is the person calling you desperately trying to get work because they dropped who knows how many thousa...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds — Appreciate Some Advice
Replies: 9
Views: 908

Re: Bonds — Appreciate Some Advice

Hammered? The first step is to gain a sense of perspective here. The worst FEW DECADES for bonds were about equal to the worst YEAR for stocks. And the worst year for bonds didn't even come close to the worst day for stocks. The temporary decline in bond funds was extremely minor, measured as a few ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get child's skin in the game for college?
Replies: 135
Views: 6456

Re: How to get child's skin in the game for college?

Understand the biological onset of adulthood really starts around the mid/late 20's. 18-22 they are still essentially teenagers, albeit learning to become adults. In light of that, I would much rather pay the full tuition and make sure they are successful in school, take advantage of summer internsh...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I claim chapter 7 bankruptcy? debt 110k
Replies: 64
Views: 6452

Re: Should I claim chapter 7 bankruptcy? debt 110k

Absolutely wipe out the debt now if you can. The odds of paying off 110K are slim with no income. Bankruptcy today, find a job tomorrow, avoid stocks forever. Really, just work harder than you normally would have and save your money in a 5 year CD ladder.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors
Replies: 15
Views: 2830

Re: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors

This was indeed my brief experience with a Chase bank FA. He sold me an overpriced mutual fund with (A|B) that did okay for a while. As I learned about Vanguard and other things, and returned to him, he was shocked to see that one fund could have $50 billion in assets. He had never heard of I-bonds ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 6975

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

CDs are great, but bond funds are more liquid and still yield more in most cases. Remember that if rates are going up, your CD may not lose value but you will be stuck with a lower paying CD while better ones are available. Brokered 5 year CDs, which are quite illiquid, pay about the same as VBTLX d...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6611

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

visualguy wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:19 am
It's hard to imagine interest rates going anywhere but up considering current government policies and the economy, but who knows for sure.
This was often said in 2014 too, and rates went back down without a recession. When the next recession hits, a drop in rates is likely.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 70
Views: 4109

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

Also, think back to November last year. Were things so miserable then? No harm in revisiting that time, financially. Revising 2009 on the other hand... :twisted:
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 70
Views: 4109

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

For me, it is confidence in my ability to earn money, in good times and bad, and live frugally while saving for the future. Build up your potential as a worker and exercise your cheapness muscle from time to time. No one would willingly give up their net worth, but knowing that you could survive wit...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?
Replies: 50
Views: 4100

Re: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?

The worst few decades for bonds didn't even eclipse the worst year for stocks. The worst year for bonds wasn't as bad as the worst day for stocks.

Don't really need to know more than that in making my choice of which is for safety and which for risk/return.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing the next bubble?
Replies: 24
Views: 2756

Re: Indexing the next bubble?

(1)-Why do you think Vanguard "will increasingly become an activist investor?" If they do, what special expertise does a mutual fund enterprise bring to corporate governance? (2)-"The volatility in stocks will decrease." How does index investing decrease volatility? VinhoVerde https://www.google.co...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing the next bubble?
Replies: 24
Views: 2756

Re: Indexing the next bubble?

No merit to it. The nightmarish world where almost everyone invests for the long term, passively through indexes, rather than speculating and day-trading, where the distraction of the stock market is downplayed in favor of long-term return from profitable companies, is a future I welcome. Vanguard w...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16646

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Bitcoin should find support around the 7 AOL-floppy-disk level.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 4678

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

Shelter in a storm, performed as expected.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day
Replies: 278
Views: 46445

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

We made two records today for DOW. a) Largest intraday point drops (1,597.08). b) Largest daily point losses (1,175.21). Very interesting time to live! List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Indu...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2909

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

You lose interest when locking into a 5 year CD if interest rates go up. Maybe you bail on the CD, half way to term, paying some penalty, probably the bank will let you, though they don't have to. But how do you decide when to bail on a CD and go for a new one? When rates go up to 3? 3.5? Easier sa...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2909

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

Not sure what strategy results in a win with bond funds when compared to CD ladders when interest rates are rising. You don't lose principal with CDs in the ladder (keeping till maturity), and you keep refreshing them with higher-paying CDs as they mature. You lose interest when locking into a 5 ye...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 Index still seen at 3000+ by year-end?
Replies: 19
Views: 1566

Re: S&P 500 Index still seen at 3000+ by year-end?

Less than 9% for the year? I would be a bit disappointed with that to be honest. Would love to see another 30%.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2909

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

You have to compare to MMM rate, if you get 1.40%,why bother to take the risk with bonds. It’s total return, not just yield. Who says anything about catastrophe? 1.4% vs 2.8%, you get double the yield for a modest increase in risk. Many of us prefer this for a safe investment. Remember inflation, t...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 2909

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

You are correct, they are wrong about bond funds. Total Bond and similar funds are doing just fine for the YTD. Yes the NAV is dropping, but the interest rates are up. Thus far, the NAV has not even dropped enough to cancel out a year's worth of dividends YTD. Down 5% in the past two years to date i...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond curves -- flattening? Steepening. Asset Allocation?
Replies: 6
Views: 580

Re: Bond curves -- flattening? Steepening. Asset Allocation?

Down .28% = a bloodbath? A true bond bloodbath is a real return of -40% over two decades. I think the zig/zag nature of stocks and bonds has been overstated. Sure it works sometimes, but the real benefit of bond funds is that they smooth out changes in the portfolio in both directions by virtue of b...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD coming due, need advice
Replies: 6
Views: 1061

Re: CD coming due, need advice

It is a better time to buy bonds now than in the fall, since the price has dropped and the interest rates have gone up. In fact this is probably the best time to buy a bond fund since 2014, as I understand it. Is it as good as buying the bonds in 1982? Probably not.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market
Replies: 26
Views: 3168

Re: Total Bond Market

You are taking far greater term risk with 10yr treasury over 6yr total bond market. There is some credit risk in total bond market, but not enough to make up for the difference in term risk. Thanks. However, 10Y at 2.78% does not seem logical at all. Several 5 year CDs are offering 2.5% now with vi...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I BONDS Maturing in 2030
Replies: 42
Views: 2732

Re: I BONDS Maturing in 2030

Pat, I’m in an identical situation, having bought the maximum in those same years. I’ve always been well aware of that huge slug of interest that will be taxable beginning in 2030. However that’s 12 years away and I’m not going to pay income tax before I have to. Furthermore, I could be dead or in ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12650

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

The only thing starting to feel like the 1990s is the ICO (initial coin offering) thing going on for the past year. ICOs are almost identical in appearance to the stock frenzy of 1720. I can't wait for one to sell an ICO for "a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody t...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12650

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

http://i67.tinypic.com/2zfmoeh.png It feels like either 1996 or 1998 to me. That is a very disturbing graph to say the least, it looks like an unsustainable melt-up. But check it out in Log: http://i67.tinypic.com/288xeo7.png Now I only see one bubble, in 1999, surrounded by a rather steady trend. ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?
Replies: 33
Views: 2477

Re: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?

$400 million in crypto currency reported mysteriously missing today at a Japanese exchange. This isn't quite like a fraud by design, but it surely is the most vulnerable to fraud of any currency out there. Despite the overhyped potential of blockchain, it seems cryptos are designed primarily to fund...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?
Replies: 33
Views: 2477

Re: Bitcoin bubble ending with a flat top rather than a sharp drop?

If it ends with a flat top, it may not be much of a bubble. Of course this does look like a bubble so I predict it will end with a flat bottom, namely zero.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have you ever acted on an instinct like this?
Replies: 30
Views: 3316

Re: Have you ever acted on an instinct like this?

I don't doubt the FOMO stage is upon us, suddenly everyone is talking stocks and bitcoin even in computer game chat. But FOMO can bring another 100% easily and I will happily continue to hold.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?
Replies: 40
Views: 3654

Re: Is Anybody Else Freaked Out By the Rapidly Escalating Stock Market?

Here is something that everyone seems to believe, but not realize: stocks generally go up. We all believe it because we are buying stocks as investments. If you earnestly did think that they must come down, you wouldn't really buy them except as some kind of speculation on a bubble. Stocks are suppo...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected earning in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 1129

Re: Expected earning in next 10 years

When predicting future returns is this impossible, speculation isn't even that fun anymore.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ready to give up on bond fund, Lost 2.25% past 6 months
Replies: 85
Views: 10682

Re: Ready to give up on bond fund, Lost 2.25% past 6 months

It is really too late now, you held through the (minor) loss and want to sell before reaping the benefits of the highers yield?! You will then lock in those losses without any compensation. Remember that a normal bad day in stocks you might lose 2.25%. That the bond fund did this over 6 months shows...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Home Depot?
Replies: 51
Views: 4062

Re: Sell Home Depot?

How would you feel if Home Depot went bankrupt in the next week and you lost your entire investment? This has happened before, to companies that have appeared very strong. The OP has owned HD since 2000 - meaning this is the 18th year of the OP owning the shares. The company is not going bankrupt n...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MEC's instead of Bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 838

Re: MEC's instead of Bonds?

MECs, annuities, and other products aggressively sold by insurance companies are usually highly complex, opaque, and costly. An MEC is not an annuity product. There are no purchase fees visible to the purchaser. MEC charges 1.5% per year but it also guarantees 2.5% for a net fee of 1%. That is why ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Little lost with the New York City Deferred Compensation Plan
Replies: 7
Views: 721

Re: Little lost with the New York City Deferred Compensation Plan

My guess is to go with equity, international equity, and the bond fund. I personally would select age-10 in bonds and 50/50 with the stocks for whatever is left. I'm not sure I'd recommend a 50/50 split of U.S. stocks with international stocks. I prefer 70% U.S. stocks and 30% international stocks ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MEC's instead of Bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 838

Re: MEC's instead of Bonds?

MECs, annuities, and other products aggressively sold by insurance companies are usually highly complex, opaque, and costly. "One Modified Endowment Contract (MEC) that I am looking at is a completely liquid instrument that can grow a maximum of 9% in a year if the S&P gains 10.5% or more and can on...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Home Depot?
Replies: 51
Views: 4062

Re: Sell Home Depot?

KPG wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:42 pm
probably won't split
Stock splits are meaningless to the investor. It is a neutral manipulation in the price per share that only has psychological value, not real.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2416

Re: Bond Market

401Ks and other retirement accounts often have stable value funds, complex and expensive funds that offer modest return without much apparent risk of principal loss. I find them really worrying due to the complex and opaque structure, and the fact that instead of lowering the NAV, they might just lo...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Little lost with the New York City Deferred Compensation Plan
Replies: 7
Views: 721

Re: Little lost with the New York City Deferred Compensation Plan

Your age, desire to take risk, and the expense ratios of these funds would all be needed for full advice. However generally speaking, you should either select a target date fund that matches when you plan to retire, or select a mix of stocks and bonds that you desire at this time. The first choice m...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 30,000 S&P 3000, Nasdaq 10,000
Replies: 39
Views: 4682

Re: Dow 30,000 S&P 3000, Nasdaq 10,000

These numbers are not in proportion to each other though, one talks about a mere 16% increase, the other a 38% increase. The Dow will be much higher, most likely, if Nasdaq hits 10,000. I could reasonably see Dow 30,000 coming this year followed by the next bear market in 2019. That would be a good ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 30390

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I don't understand buying stocks for the long run but then being shocked or even nervous when they go up. Why did people buy stocks in the first place? They are supposed to go up most of the time. This bull run has nothing on 1982 - 2000 and is coming after a prolonged period of near zero returns. I...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tobacco Stocks
Replies: 10
Views: 1147

Re: Tobacco Stocks

Extremely high risk to put a significant amount of money in any one stock. It could be GM, GE, IBM, Kodak, it doesn't matter. And I would argue that any company primarily making deadly products is even more risky. What if Indonesia finally realizes how deadly smoking is and decides to do something? ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 8107

Re: Heading for a top?

We are up what, 150% in 10 years since the last high in 2007? That doesn't exactly strike me as unsustainable returns. Worth holding for the next 100% even if we have to take 10 years to get there. Companies are making bank right now, the whole point in owning stocks it to share in those profits.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My 2017 Budget
Replies: 35
Views: 4080

Re: My 2017 Budget

Also in NYC. Interesting see your budget compared to mine. We are quite similar in food/transport. But my rent is so much higher than yours for a 1 bedroom. Are you in a rent stabilized unit or are you sacrificing commute time or safety? Have been in the same place for 8 years, started out at $1075...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My 2017 Budget
Replies: 35
Views: 4080

Re: My 2017 Budget

Very proud to be frugal yet happy on a modest budget in a high COLA. My company pays for phone and most of medical, that helps quite a bit. In 2018 I have cancelled my natural gas account: it was running about $25 a month for something I rarely used. ($15 bowls of pasta at that rate!) In exchange fo...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One More Invest now or later in IBond question
Replies: 3
Views: 436

Re: One More Invest now or later in IBond question

At this time and for the foreseeable future, I would look at I-bonds as matching inflation, no more. With that in mind, the sooner you get in the better. The only reason to wait is if you don't have the need to by more or the money. I personally always buy in November because that is when the last $...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Funds Have Best Year Since 2013
Replies: 6
Views: 472

Re: Hedge Funds Have Best Year Since 2013

S&P 500 index fund up about 20% on the year with near zero fees. I would say 9% is pretty shabby in light of that!