Search found 1126 matches

by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4257

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

Note that a person with a few million and a good job already isn't exactly wasting their life... you can live a very nice life while continuing to work. Balance!
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4257

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

If I already had 2 M at 40, I would certainly gamble for the bigger payout in a few years. If it went IPO you could be fabulously wealthy a few years later. That is worth it imho since you already have 2M safe and secure.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYC weekend house: your experiences?
Replies: 11
Views: 1526

Re: NYC weekend house: your experiences?

Most important part of my life as a child, the ability to spend time in the country while growing up in the city. If you can afford it, the only question is where to get the country home. Are you more a woods and lake type or a ocean type? : ) Long Island and NJ both good picks imho.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity: REIT funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1039

Re: Fidelity: REIT funds

REITs are real estate like gold mining stocks are gold. Correlated for sure, but not the same thing. I wouldn't consider it an investment in real estate, just a focus on a specific kind of stock.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do
Replies: 10
Views: 1464

Re: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do

Yes I personally prefer these to CDs as long as $10,000 a year is sufficient to meet your needs. It meets my needs for this kind of safe investment (3rd tier emergency fund) so I buy them each year to keep the right ratio with stocks. It resembles a 5 year, infinite raise-your-rate CD in my mind. .3...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5190

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

hulburt1 wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:02 pm
Why bonds. In the last 10 years what would you have made. I'm 5% mm and 95% in stocks In the last 10 years I'm up 15% per year.
Why would a 10 year bull market be a useful time frame for deciding why bonds? Bonds: because the market doesn't always go up for 10 years.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?
Replies: 22
Views: 1891

Re: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?

I don't count my emergency fund as part of the AA. It becomes relatively small compared to your total life savings in most cases.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 5397

Re: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?

My company (large but non-profit) got rid of our 401K match a few years back, in exchange for not weakening the pension terms. That was a strong push by the union, for obvious reasons, but was a real disappointment to people like me with the discipline to save. Clearly it would be much cheaper to dr...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Side Hustle Options/Suggestions.
Replies: 99
Views: 9813

Re: Side Hustle Options/Suggestions.

I buy items at yard sales and thrift stores and resell them online. It does require book keeping but it's enough money that it's changed our lives completely. How is that these days?? Still going strong? This was great money back in early 2000s. I stopped doing after a graduated college and started...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job burnout - Keep grinding or change?
Replies: 62
Views: 6314

Re: Job burnout - Keep grinding or change?

This is one of the best job hunting environments in a generation, so it would be a good time to search for another, perhaps better paying, perhaps more enjoyable position. I completely agree with finding a balance and being able to enjoy life before it is too late. I plan to retire or at least mostl...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4988

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

What if they are cheaper because they are bad investments and there is a surplus that is growing despite a roaring US economy and middling international recovery?
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16997

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

That kind of everyday euphoria was pretty apparent in bitcoin last year. Still have not seen it in stocks just yet.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: windfall
Replies: 22
Views: 1964

Re: windfall

A pay cut in a few years seems fine to me, I would max out that 401K at a minimum, and start contributing catch up funds once you can legally do so at 50. Agree that it is peculiar to make 220K a year and only have a few hundred K saved by now but hey, you have a home mostly paid off so that should ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Include Bonds in Portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 1951

Re: Include Bonds in Portfolio?

I’m 32 and used to be 90/10, but I got rid of my bonds last week. Here are my reasons: 1. Not much difference between 10% bonds and 0% bonds. If the next crash comes it’s gonna hurt either way. Might as well put that 10% to work. 2. If you are patient the market always comes back. 3. If bonds ever ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Union at Fed job
Replies: 20
Views: 1955

Re: Union at Fed job

Across several industries, and in my life as a customer and citizen, every single ongoing relationship I have had with unions and union employees have been poor. The employees are seemingly forced to greatly reduce their responsiveness and output by the union, or perhaps they always wanted to do tha...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1-2 year high growth mutual fund
Replies: 3
Views: 305

Re: 1-2 year high growth mutual fund

1-2 year CDs or a 2 year Treasury Note. Not much else out there.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5715

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Defining middle class as the average is a mistake in a country where the majority are poor or lower income. We could go with income, however this discussion is about net worth. Living paycheck-to-paycheck on $50,000 a year might put you in the middle class by income. But in a discussion of wealth, a...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5715

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Today's million is like having $475,000 in 1988. Not that I would ever look down on that amount, let alone a million in modern dollars. But it doesn't quite mean what it used to. In another few decades, anyone saving for the future should have a million accumulated pretty quickly. At some point bet...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5715

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Today's million is like having $475,000 in 1988. Not that I would ever look down on that amount, let alone a million in modern dollars. But it doesn't quite mean what it used to. In another few decades, anyone saving for the future should have a million accumulated pretty quickly. At some point betw...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?
Replies: 25
Views: 2274

Re: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?

Yes, thousands! Happy to do it, it is paying 3.15% now.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better investments than the stock market?
Replies: 13
Views: 2294

Re: Better investments than the stock market?

Yes without any snark you should know that earning money and saving money is more important, in most cases, than investing. Most of your efforts should be focused on earning more money and saving more of what you earn. Only after decades of savings will your annual investment returns occasionally ex...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 13729

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Age-10 works for me, as equally arbitrary as every other recommendation and tapering scheme. The value of any rule of thumb is simplicity and automatic IPS that a layperson can stick with. I doubt anything between 20% bonds for life and age in bonds will make that much of a difference in the long ru...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 3054

Re: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates

I honestly don't get it "at the Macro Level". When the Fed announces that we are finally raising rates (2016), is it not clear to everyone that we will most likely be in a 2-4 year window of increasing interest rates? I certainly wouldn't try to time individual hikes, but the business cycle is the ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home is *just* outside flood zone - how much flood insurance do I buy?
Replies: 50
Views: 3059

Re: Home is *just* outside flood zone - how much flood insurance do I buy?

The flood risk was drastically underestimated in Texas, especially new construction near drainage systems and reservoirs which exacerbated the flooding due to bad design. Can you share information about the kind of land this was built on and how new the construction is? There might be records with t...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 4638

Re: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?

Some of these companies have an absurd valuation, Amazon in particular. However others, like Apple and Alphabet, are highly profitable. I might argue that they have a giant market cap for legitimate reasons.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11178

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11178

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2352

Re: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates

Trying to outhink trillions of dollars of smart money in the bond universe is a losing proposition. Even they seem to get it wrong much of the time. That's not to say short term bond funds or CDs are not a good alternative, they are quite suitable actually. However don't fool yourself into thinking ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11178

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:49 am

Hmm as a casual user I’m shocked insta could be that much of the revenue generation.
It isn't yet, but with 1 billion monthly active users, and steady growth, it has potential.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation for 47 yo wanting to retire in 10 years
Replies: 19
Views: 2768

Re: Allocation for 47 yo wanting to retire in 10 years

I can't imagine living on $45,000 anywhere in the US in 2028, especially at an age where your medical costs will surely start going up. If inflation merely holds at 3% over that time, you are expecting to live on what is today in the low $30,000's. I would plan to work until early/mid 60's. You are ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11178

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

One out of every five humans uses Facebook each day.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11178

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Instagram was an incredible purchase at $1B and continues to thrive, It is now valued at $100 billion. Huh? The company Instagram was purchased by FB for 1 billion and they turned a 10,000% profit because it is currently valued at 100 billion. That explains a full 20% of the FB market cap. And thei...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11178

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Rick Rock wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:37 pm
Instagram was an incredible purchase at $1B and continues to thrive,
It is now valued at $100 billion.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11178

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Facebook just reported 42% revenue growth to 13.2 billion. I'm not a fan but it certainly doesn't look like the end of the world. Exactly, as a company it is doing quite well. Maybe less quite well than expected. Share price was up 550% since IPO, 460% even with this drop. The PE ratio is abnormall...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold one stock 25 years
Replies: 68
Views: 6347

Re: Hold one stock 25 years

BRK makes sense because it is already something like a mutual fund, reasonably well diversified across a range of companies. I would select a company that is focused on the business of making profits and returning them to shareholders, not on global domination at any cost like Amazon. So that would ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 3807

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

15% of 6% of 12% of my portfolio. And I suspect the drop is just temporary, the company will do what it was going to do all along, succeed or fail over the next few decades. Apple is the case against this fear, since no other company had such an outsize market cap with a corresponding cult of person...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 4697

Re: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement

I was already saving for the future at 16 so let's not say younger kids can't do the right thing. However it isn't that shocking to hear that wealthy kids, who were born in wealth like most wealthy Americans, are counting on inheriting that money later. They will mostly get an easy pathway to a pres...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Street Smart bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 890

Re: Street Smart bonds

"Notes are a non-deposit investment product. Not FDIC insured. No guarantee. May lose value. StreetShares authorizes bank accounts by using a third party vendor, Plaid." They give precious little information about the fees or how the investment works. It looks like a P2P loan platform that takes adv...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?
Replies: 49
Views: 3529

Re: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?

DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:52 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:54 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:44 pm
I took $70,000 and shorted TSLA stock
How’s that working out?
Good. Sold short at $355 and $365. TSLA closed at $308 yesterday.

On it's way to $0.
How quickly does it have to decline to counter the cost of borrowing shares?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?
Replies: 10
Views: 667

Re: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?

Absolutely the right thing to do, and the right time is as soon as possible. I increase my bond holding percentage every 5 years by 5%. Recently bumped up the 401K after turning 35. If buying bonds was okay 5 years ago, it is better today. They are a better investment now than they were recently, a...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?
Replies: 10
Views: 667

Re: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?

Absolutely the right thing to do, and the right time is as soon as possible. I increase my bond holding percentage every 5 years by 5%. Recently bumped up the 401K after turning 35. If buying bonds was okay 5 years ago, it is better today. They are a better investment now than they were recently, al...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13017

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

I would put a bet down on the range between -50 and +100%. Wouldn't trust a prediction more specific than that.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds or bond funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2461

Re: bonds or bond funds?

so my 401k contributions go into a stock fund. Since bond funds can lose money, I shy away from them. Just to be clear, you avoid bond funds because they sometimes lose a few percent per year and put all your money into stock funds which have lost 25% in one day on two occasions, and can easily dro...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumped my last stock
Replies: 11
Views: 2744

Re: Dumped my last stock

TSLA is great but this way, you can own all the car companies around the world. As long as the industry as a whole does well, you benefit. No need to pick horses since you are betting simply that some horses will make it to the finish line.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you own just 5% of anything?
Replies: 65
Views: 5094

Re: Do you own just 5% of anything?

Russell 2000 small cap, 5% of 401K which is less than 2.5% of total. Forced to combine a mix of market cap specific funds to approximate total US stock market and international. EM at 10% of 401K, for example.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3289

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

It is no coincidence that Madoff used the idea of a hedge fund for cover. Hedge funds are where the wealthy go to feel like they are beating the market and the unsophisticated little guy through access to something special. It would be more infuriating if they were not ripping off people who are alr...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 9157

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

... because the fund buys and sells bonds. If a bond falls in price, the fund might sell that bond, and buy a new bond with a higher coupon rate at par. The new bond will thus pay more dividends, but will not rise back in price unless rates fall. Do bond fund managers know that holding a bond to ma...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 9157

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

The slightly depressed NAV will not go back up unless interest rates drop again. The increase in income should overcome this drop in NAV in time. A good review of the process linked below.

viewtopic.php?t=235345
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 11635

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

The difference in performance is strong evidence in favor of holding international. If they did about the same, I would question the need for international. Keeping to global market cap is one of the few things keeping me okay with US stock valuations right now.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 9157

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Just a quick reminder, but the worst ever DAY for US stocks was almost 10 times worse than the worst YEAR for this kind of bond fund. The volatility and risk is almost insignificant compared to stocks. The only real concern I have is bonds losing to unexpected, high inflation. And short bonds or CD...