Search found 1683 matches

by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a perfect time to pile into a 3% yield, net of fees, stable value fund?
Replies: 21
Views: 3020

Re: Is this a perfect time to pile into a 3% yield, net of fees, stable value fund?

If I had access to a fund like this it would be my only bond holding as long as the 3% lasts.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8932
Views: 709694

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

LiveSimple wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:53 am even if it is red / green, this will be a blimp years later
The Hindenburg or Airlander 10?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Costco worth the $120 membership?
Replies: 238
Views: 15026

Re: Is Costco worth the $120 membership?

Useful for a large family for sure, but in our case we don't buy in bulk more than a few times a year and mostly things other than food. So, in this case the major other benefit is buying big items like a TV, computer, etc. Got a nice watch too. Not for nothing, all things being equal, I like to sup...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guidance for breaking the news to our financial advisor
Replies: 60
Views: 4979

Re: Guidance for breaking the news to our financial advisor

I would deliberate a bit on the thousands of dollars he siphoned from your hard earned money which, arguably, did not offer thousands of dollars in value over Vanguard. Over 15 years I bet he got a few nice vacation's worth out of you. A few minutes of that thought would help me cut the cord, and di...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 50
Views: 4435

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

No other number makes sense in my mind. Even zero international isn't a special number, since you could potentially go below zero or above 100% domestic stock. Only market cap, in my mind, is defensible given the principles on investing around here. Anything else is claiming to know something about ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chris Hogan's Facebook Group restrictions
Replies: 52
Views: 3503

Re: Chris Hogan's Facebook Group restrictions

Out of curiosity, joined the group just now. There are many rules you must accept before joining including the first three below. At least they are upfront about it, they don't want advice contrary to what they teach. They don't specifically say no index funds, but they do oddly say no FIRE talk. (W...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG investing making a real impact?
Replies: 9
Views: 545

Re: ESG investing making a real impact?

Just by coincidence, this has been a good stretch of time to stay away from coal, oil, and casinos.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: With interest rates near zero whats advice on CD ?
Replies: 10
Views: 1476

Re: With interest rates near zero whats advice on CD ?

What kinds of fees exist for MYGAs and what happens if you want to sell it?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Positioning for retirement at 55
Replies: 15
Views: 2513

Re: Positioning for retirement at 55

We are in similar age groups and have similar goals for retirement; on the early side. In my case there is a strong workplace pension option starting as young as 55 (rule of 85). I plan to consider retirement at 55 due to pension, and have a healthy taxable to use between then and drawing from the 4...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, it's October again - time to take profits?
Replies: 46
Views: 4594

Re: Well, it's October again - time to take profits?

Take profits and then what? When do I get back in?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9212

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9212

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: problem with FLOT
Replies: 2
Views: 177

Re: problem with FLOT

Ouch, an 11 percent drop in a fund that didn't seem to move at all since 2011. Lots of bond funds lost money here, corporate bonds, mbs, municipal bonds, all of these are risky enough to lose money in really bad times. Still, you did better than you would have in stocks by about 3 times. I would say...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6459

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Took about 6 years last time, so I would guess some time in 2026. President Nick Nolte will get a boost in the polls as a result.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?
Replies: 68
Views: 8737

Re: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?

I think it may be one of the worst times to buy them in a lifetime, actually. They have done great since I was born in 1982 and have slowly declined in appeal since then.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you get $1k from the federal government stimulus, what will you do with it?
Replies: 9
Views: 755

Re: If you get $1k from the federal government stimulus, what will you do with it?

Invest it in stocks, not quite what they have in mind but better for the economy than putting it into a bank account.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?
Replies: 37
Views: 3265

Re: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?

Also $DRI - Darden Restaurants, people are going to eat food again.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent in the Time of Coronavirus
Replies: 78
Views: 3023

Re: Rent in the Time of Coronavirus

Always negotiate, negotiate a job offer, negotiate rent, negotiate a car purchase... I have never paid asking for an apartment and have consistently gotten 5-10% reductions in rent just by asking. A 10% reduction in rent over 10 years will save you a small fortune. This is an uncertain time and I kn...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?
Replies: 37
Views: 3265

Re: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?

Fujifilm Toyama Chemical! But seriously, oil and airlines are likely to get a bailout and if they do recover, these prices are a joke. However they could also get nationalized, have their original shareholders wiped out, etc.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762212

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Also it's been a straight line up since 2009 with hardly any downturns to scare people. The 2011 and 2018 drops did scare some people, each was almost 20%. This is shaping up to be the mother of all drops. It's too late for me to sell now so I'll keep grabbing for the falling knife until VOO goes t...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a point of holding bonds now?
Replies: 8
Views: 1040

Re: Is there a point of holding bonds now?

I am using i-bonds now, they are a special kind of bond but in my mind offer superior options at this current time. 6 months at 2.2%, .2% over inflation for 30 years, tax deferred, reduced taxes for NYC residents like me, and your balance can't drop no matter what interest rates do.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 55401

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

Science institution, we are closed down and most staff working from home. Only a few key people like lab stewardship and security are on site. Our real stress test comes 2-3 years down the road as donations, grants, and other sources of income dry up. That was the lag time for layoffs after the Grea...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last gasp of the bull
Replies: 118
Views: 18266

Re: Last gasp of the bull

He gambled and won. Can't take too much pride in a lucky lotto ticket. Gambling is putting entire money on the red ball. He did his due diligence and had optionality to cover the losses from 65:35 portfolio I've known countless gamblers, they always have a great system in place to explain the lucky...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last gasp of the bull
Replies: 118
Views: 18266

Re: Last gasp of the bull

He gambled and won. Can't take too much pride in a lucky lotto ticket. Gambling is putting entire money on the red ball. He did his due diligence and had optionality to cover the losses from 65:35 portfolio I've known countless gamblers, they always have a great system in place to explain the lucky...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last gasp of the bull
Replies: 118
Views: 18266

Re: Last gasp of the bull

He gambled and won. Can't take too much pride in a lucky lotto ticket.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else thing this crash has no merit?
Replies: 6
Views: 1029

Re: Does anyone else thing this crash has no merit?

As terrible as the deaths are, and they are terrible, this crash is about the clear and present economic impacts of shutting down entire countries for weeks or even months at a time. Many millions will lose their jobs, many business with fail, and if those without a job stop spending money, if those...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Treasury
Replies: 48
Views: 2531

Re: Long Term Treasury

If I could go back in time I would have been all in LTT. Unfortunately my reasons for not wanting them a year ago are 10x stronger now.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in VTSAX, probably not the smartest move I've made, seeking advice
Replies: 57
Views: 5128

Re: All in VTSAX, probably not the smartest move I've made, seeking advice

I'm debating on selling this and taking a loss now, or really riding this out through the unknown. I know none of us have a crystal ball, but I feel that some of yours may be less clouded than mine. Any advice on what to do? Absolutely not. Why would you buy high and sell low? Say that phrase out-l...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single Stock Thread - Oil Stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 437

Re: Single Stock Thread - Oil Stocks

My personal choice is to just buy more of a total stock mutual fund, as you will get not only depressed oil stocks but also depressed airlines, cruise ships, gaming/casinos, retail, tech, you name it. They are all down 20-30 percent at this point. However if you are asking if oil stocks are a good d...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A silver lining in all this (for some)
Replies: 4
Views: 1002

Re: A silver lining in all this (for some)

Not for all. My parents retired years ago but then as now, they retired to a fixed income from social security, pension, etc. I was chatting with them the other day and remarking how they are least impacted by a depression because their monthly checks are fixed as are their monthly costs. The people...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 349
Views: 29988

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Down about 27% in all stock holdings, cash holdings are slightly up of course. All told, I am about $10,000 above where I was on January 1st, 2019. Not horrible in the scheme of things.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I don't have a plan. What should I do?
Replies: 10
Views: 953

Re: I don't have a plan. What should I do?

I think your asset mix looks reasonable and if you work hard and save hard, your age 64 retirement could be reasonable. 12 years is plenty of time for the markets to recover. How much rebalancing do you have to do? It sounds like the 401K is a fixed asset ratio so it won't have to be rebalanced.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move to CD now after rate cut?
Replies: 23
Views: 2533

Re: Move to CD now after rate cut?

Alan S. wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:54 pm
"Financial repression" is back yet again. That term basically means that savers will be paying for debtors to borrow more at historically low rates. And of course the largest debtor is the US Govt.
Not sure how low these rates are if inflation is below zero.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21394

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

Maxing out 401K 100% equities. Can't touch it for 21 years minimum, I have every confidence stocks will be higher in 21 year than today.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house - should I get out of it now?
Replies: 40
Views: 3737

Re: Buying a house - should I get out of it now?

I would urge a more careful assessment of your job security. Why would finance and advertising be anything but vulnerable in a deep recession?
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Silver for apocalypse
Replies: 63
Views: 3366

Re: Buying Silver for apocalypse

Buy guns, ammo, medicine, machetes, shoes, other clothing, and alcohol, will be worth more than metal disks when the economy collapses.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762212

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I spoke to soon, 2nd worst decline in history, no? Only Black Monday was worse. (But it was way worse.)
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762212

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Looks like 3rd worst day on record for Dow. (Biggest point decline in history by far, of course.)
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 164
Views: 19506

Re: The Black Swan is Here

We've been talking about it forever on this forum but I think it's here. The stock market is crashing, public places are closed, stores ran out of stuff, people will soon lose their jobs, and no antidote for the plague yet. In time like this, this retired person is glad that I have 10 years of annu...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762212

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is just too good. Dipped a toe and will dip another one as we go down the stair steps. At this point I don't know when to buy anymore. When your blood is in the streets. Not even a double-digit day right now, amazing how quickly one's tolerance for big moves can increase. Forget toes, I'm in t...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is continuing to buy as planned?
Replies: 119
Views: 8403

Re: Who is continuing to buy as planned?

I am buying the maximum I can at this point, bi-weekly contributions to 401K. Wynn at a PE of 4, XOM at a PE of 8 with a 10% dividend yield... Of course these companies are going to take major hits this year, but most of them will recover in a few years especially if government helps them with loans...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?
Replies: 56
Views: 3853

Re: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?

Waited an extra month for a large batch of ID lanyards back when only China was severely impacted. The only real impacts I am seeing around here is the result of locals panic buying/hoarding things they can't possibly use in a year, i.e. the buy side is causing the disruption here not the supply.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9836

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

Everything impacts everything. Unemployment has a self-sustaining property that depresses economic activity and causes job loss. This is how the depression developed. If we are at 10% unemployment in 3 years, earnings will stay low for some time to come. People without jobs don't spend as much.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20761

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

Rates can go below zero, so future rate drops are the most obvious answer to this. A lot of stuff can’t happen is happening. We’re going to see negative rates. Note that I said "can" rather than "can't." However I don't think rates will go below zero in this country, there is a psychological barrie...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20761

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

Rates can go below zero, so future rate drops are the most obvious answer to this. A lot of stuff can’t happen is happening. We’re going to see negative rates. Note that I said "can" rather than "can't." However I don't think rates will go below zero in this country, there is a psychological barrie...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20761

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

With rates at zero now, I wonder what tools they have remaining if this doesn’t suffice? Rates can go below zero, so future rate drops are the most obvious answer to this, not that I expect it to happen. As to other 'nuclear' level options, the FED is probably out of options now that they committed...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Or Wait
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: Sell Or Wait

I would sell them all on my personal policy against stock picking, on my personal feelings about Uber, and on the fact that people are not trying to get places and sit in enclosed cars with strangers for the next month. I think losing $7 per share means getting off light this time around. And no, yo...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: student loan interest frozen- invest or pay off loans?
Replies: 19
Views: 911

Re: student loan interest frozen- invest or pay off loans?

Unless a job loss forced me to stop paying, I would continue paying back the money I borrowed on schedule. Being in debt 6 months longer doesn't appeal to me. In fact, maybe you are paying debt off faster now because a few extra percent can go against the principal.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Breaking the buck
Replies: 27
Views: 2488

Re: Breaking the buck

I never understood why breaking the buck is such a big deal. So what if a MM fund drops 1%? Your loss of income will quickly eclipse that as interest rates go to zero. Because cash equivalents aren't supposed to do that. Now that they have done it, cash equivalents "rarely" break the buck. The spos...