Search found 1043 matches

by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 46
Views: 4797

Re: Unprecedented Event

Event like: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse The US EMP Commission published a rather depressing paper on the affect of a EMP event. I find the scary part is that there wouldn't be a need for mass use of nuclear weapons. And very little physical damage, other than our t...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 9631

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

By the way, I got the idea that compromise means what I said it means probably from learning the definition as a child. Gordon Gekko notwithstanding, the word has not substantially changed in meaning. Definition of compromise (Webster - emphasis mine) 1 a : settlement of differences by arbitration ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 9631

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

By the way, I got the idea that compromise means what I said it means probably from learning the definition as a child. Gordon Gekko notwithstanding, the word has not substantially changed in meaning. Definition of compromise (Webster - emphasis mine) 1 a : settlement of differences by arbitration ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 9631

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

It comes from evolutionary biology where social primates are finely attuned to fairness and compromise. A compromise is meeting about half-way, where each side gives about the same amount, meeting in the middle. There is something magical about that. All other options have one side sacrificing more...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 9631

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

I would have said "no thank you" when they came back with 85 and 15, they didn't signal a strong enough willingness to meet you half way. You had been offered much higher salaries to start and they kept dropping it. Who knows how the recruiter was playing both sides so I wouldn't assume the company...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spreading Bond Safety to Taxable [Portfolio help]
Replies: 12
Views: 904

Re: Spreading Bond Safety to Taxable [Portfolio help]

Depends on how conservative you want to be. In theory you could sell bonds in your 401K, exchanging them for stocks there, and then sell stocks in taxable, if you need the money promptly. Of course that "Kansas City Shuffle" doesn't help me sleep well at night so I keep some bonds in taxable too. Th...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 9631

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

"Two business days later I got the answer that they could do 85k and 15% bonus target. Again the base was not enough so I countered with 88k at 12.5% bonus." I would have said "no thank you" when they came back with 85 and 15, they didn't signal a strong enough willingness to meet you half way. You ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.
Replies: 62
Views: 8379

Re: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.

So is it the right time now to buy bonds since rates are high already and bond funds prices have gone down? The right time to buy bonds is when your investment plan calls for them. You are really asking: "Is it right to time bonds?" And the answer is no, you are not equipped to predict the future i...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?
Replies: 44
Views: 5421

Re: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?

Absolutely, $10,000 a year every November. Will continue to do it as long as needed. These bonds offer something that no bond fund or CD can in exchange for a minor 1 year lockout.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with gifted individual losers and gainers?
Replies: 14
Views: 841

Re: What to do with gifted individual losers and gainers?

I would sell them all, perhaps over two tax years if the tax bill is going to be overwhelming. The loss on a few stocks could help counteract the capital gains on others, however I bet you made a very good return over all.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5450

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

I am confused. I just logged into my account, and the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares - VBTLX is showing me the fund average annual returns for 1 year as 1.11%. The Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - VMMXX is showing the fund average annual returns for 1 year as 1.20%. What am ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12357

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

For instance, consider how growth/inflation has affected the point totals of a market swing: 750 points in the 70s would be a day for the history books, today it would make sense as a monthly or weekly occurrence at the same standard deviation. That's a big part of it in the media anyway, they keep...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?
Replies: 40
Views: 3718

Re: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?

5 year CD or I bonds, absolutely, they are competitive without the volatility. But Total Bond is offering ca. 2.95%! Going to cash will cost you after inflation, which is likely also to increase in the years to come.

You had me at set it and forget it!
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 128
Views: 18217

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

Easier to have short term cash linked directly to credit cards and direct deposit from work! If it was worth $50 per month or something, sure I'd do it. But this might earn me a dollar or two per month more.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often is the daily change in stock index due to just one or two stocks?
Replies: 2
Views: 263

Re: How often is the daily change in stock index due to just one or two stocks?

A big issue with such an index is that it can be highly skewed (and move out of lockstep with the broader market, represented well by the S&P 500 for example) if one giant stock makes a major move. It is also true that stocks are correlated in daily moves, usually moving up or down in unison. Theref...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy I-Bonds before May 1 or After?
Replies: 16
Views: 1780

Re: Buy I-Bonds before May 1 or After?

Made the choice years ago to buy in November each year. That continues because I don't want to put $10,000 in before the last year's $10,000 becomes liquid. The whole process is basically on auto-pilot, although I would be sad if the .1% fixed went back to zero.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Far is too Far, Commuting?
Replies: 211
Views: 11651

Re: Work Commute: How far is too far?

Mass transit vs driving is a big deal for me, since one can do work or sleep on the train. Here in NYC lots of us do 60 minutes each way, but that time is potentially useful. (And it is fairly cheap compared to driving and gas.) If I had to drive more than 45 minutes, I would start to consider eithe...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.
Replies: 62
Views: 8379

Re: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.

You probably lost thousands in stocks since the high point in January. Meanwhile, the bond fund monthly dividends are up ca. 15%. It cost you to get here, but the bonds are now paying more and will catch up in due time. A 2.95% yield isn't so bad.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?
Replies: 38
Views: 3000

Re: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?

As I say, apparently they really believe there are no limits, literally none . Try it sometime. Try to get an economist to agree that the earth cannot support a population of, say, 1 quadrillion. (0.5 square meters of earth's surface per person... seems do-able, yes?) (So, make that 1 quintillion)....
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12357

Re: Mr. Bogle on recent volatility

Strange, it just looks like a lot of vacillation between 2650 and 2550, a bunch of 1-3% daily changes. Seems fairly normal for stocks and much less severe than 2008/2009. If anything, it was the run from November 2016 - January 2018 that was strange and frankly unnerving.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 9733

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

Bitcoin mining is environmentally destructive .... Did the online articles that you regurgitated this opinion from enumerate the amount of energy and "environmentally destructive" behavior that goes into maintianing our current financial system? Hint: Those massive 24/7 air-conditioned data centers...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cryptos- "Bear" with me here
Replies: 31
Views: 2443

Re: Cryptos- "Bear" with me here

Could always trade that bitcoin for a Semper Agustus.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do I invest TODAY?
Replies: 10
Views: 1289

Re: Where do I invest TODAY?

10 years from retirement? I don't think $2000 matters that much at this stage. I would put it in stocks and then just put the next $2000 where needed to balance. In a pinch, you could split it up evenly among the three choices.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3327

Re: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?

They've done poorly over the time I've had them (since 2013), and the TD website is a pain; plus I'm trying to simplify my financial life, consolidating where I can. This is such a funny thing to say about I bonds. We always know what I bonds will do, and they will do it with great regularity. They...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard sends out erroneous "not enough money in settlement fund" notice]
Replies: 94
Views: 6138

Re: Vanguard "system issue" 3/27/18 [erroneous "not enough money in settlement fund" notice]

Sent 4 minutes ago: Important message about this morning's email Dear ________, You may have received an email from us this morning stating that "You don't have enough money to pay for a recent trade" in your Vanguard Brokerage Account. This email was sent to you in error. You don't need to take any...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can pension systems etc. stomach a possible coming decade of low returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 2242

Re: Can pension system etc. stomach the coming decade of low returns?

The pensions have been struggling even with good market returns! Their greatest problem is not market returns, but rather under-funding and lack of oversight, and unrealistic expectations. Although my company has been stable since the 1870's, and is probably going to be here another 100 years, I sti...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buying at a discount" ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1552

Re: "Buying at a discount" ?

I was buying then, but with only a few years of employment and plenty of road ahead, it was not a psychologically difficult time. I find it much harder to invest now that things are going well and I have much more on the line. Part of the solution to investing in any market is to have the 401K on au...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wrapping my head around bond funds
Replies: 56
Views: 4869

Re: Wrapping my head around bond funds

Bond funds are down a few percent on the year and everyone is panicking, was it just a huge mistake to buy them? In one day , global stocks declined about what a moderate term bond fund did in one year. Where are all the "I'm worried about stocks" posts? Bond funds are doing what they are supposed t...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe SP500 index fund
Replies: 32
Views: 3371

Re: Safe SP500 index fund

Is there a lottery ticket that you keep the money if you win but if you don't win, you get a refund on the ticket purchase? The next Madoff will have plenty of customers.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA
Replies: 64
Views: 6517

Re: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA

I wouldn't freak out about the $40 billion, it is down 6% or so. A bad day, possibly related to the fact that FB knew about the theft of user data for 2 years and did nothing. But a bad day does nothing more to refute this strategy than a good day does to support it. I would look to Kodak, Enron, Se...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Backpacking in Guatemala and El Salvador?
Replies: 23
Views: 2013

Re: Backpacking in Guatemala and El Salvador?

El Salvador has, by a fair margin, the highest murder rate of any country in the world. You would have to go to Syria to find more murders per capita. My blunt and honest advice? Go to Costa Rica instead. Did you plan the trip without first googling the country or reading the wikipedia? There are ar...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to bond funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 3717

Re: Alternative to bond funds?

After a significant drop during the stock market crash and "great recession" the 10 year did bounce all the way back to around 4%. It was neither disastrous for stocks or bonds. In fact, I bet most people here don't even remember it. I also don't think we will much remember this year's headwind for ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Ladder Discipline
Replies: 17
Views: 2437

Re: CD Ladder Discipline

...they will dynamically adjust to inflation... Can you explain? If you are not familiar with I-Bonds, it's worth doing a search on BH for previous threads about them. There is a fluctuating component to the interest rate that is adjusted twice a year, based to some extent, I believe, on inflation ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Ladder Discipline
Replies: 17
Views: 2437

Re: CD Ladder Discipline

...they will dynamically adjust to inflation... Can you explain? If you are not familiar with I-Bonds, it's worth doing a search on BH for previous threads about them. There is a fluctuating component to the interest rate that is adjusted twice a year, based to some extent, I believe, on inflation ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to bond funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 3717

Re: Alternative to bond funds?

The yield is 2.5% which is quite good considering current inflation. You may mean total return over a short period, such as 1 year, in which case it is basically flat. That is reasonable for this fund which has a risk rating of 1: "Conservative funds—Risk level 1 Risk level one Vanguard funds are cl...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Ladder Discipline
Replies: 17
Views: 2437

Re: CD Ladder Discipline

Went the I bond route and have never been happier, they will dynamically adjust to inflation and are mostly now 100% liquid penalty free paying almost as much as a 5 year CD. After tax it is probably even.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Amount saved by age
Replies: 58
Views: 8234

Re: Amount saved by age

Salary x years worked usually is about right after ten years or so. Wouldn't this imply you are either investing 100% of your salary or obtained extraordinary investment returns? If you make 100k per year and invest 50% of that you would need a 13% compound annual growth rate to achieve your metric...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumped My Advisor, Now What?
Replies: 77
Views: 5191

Re: Morningstar "Stars"

I must have been pretty lucky the 30 years then, other than getting screwed by my advisors, the dividend paying Utility funds we were in did rather well I thought, but think they have run their course now for a while. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] , I will take my chances with my gut feeli...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumped My Advisor, Now What?
Replies: 77
Views: 5191

Re: Morningstar "Stars"

I must have been pretty lucky the 30 years then, other than getting screwed by my advisors, the dividend paying Utility funds we were in did rather well I thought, but think they have run their course now for a while. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] , I will take my chances with my gut feeli...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumped My Advisor, Now What?
Replies: 77
Views: 5191

Re: Morningstar "Stars"

I must have been pretty lucky the 30 years then, other than getting screwed by my advisors, the dividend paying Utility funds we were in did rather well I thought, but think they have run their course now for a while. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] , I will take my chances with my gut feeli...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just out of college, new job w/ 401k
Replies: 18
Views: 1485

Re: Just out of college, new job w/ 401k

Based purely on my person system, a system based on personal comfort, I would do the following: Contribute about 10% now and try to bump that up after the raise. Be sure to get the company match no matter what. I would do 20% vanguard total bond, 40% total stock (international), and 40% Vanguard Ins...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AOBC, horrible decision [American Outdoor Brands]
Replies: 30
Views: 3799

Re: AOBC, horrible decision [American Outdoor Brands]

Was $2.50 not too long ago! It is a strange stock to hold, since its price seems dominated by presidential elections and the (simplistic) perception that one kind of president is out to confiscate all the guns and the other isn't. One of the few stocks that didn't benefit from the "Trump bump" of th...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TCEHY -- "google" of China ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1802

Re: TCEHY -- "google" of China ?

If one is planning to gamble on this stock, they first have to explain "why now?" The stock is up a few thousand percent since the recent IPO and almost 100% YTD.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need to file a complaint
Replies: 10
Views: 2176

Re: I need to file a complaint

Posting here is a good first step, then a letter to the CEO.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home appraisal gone wrong (split levels and livable space)
Replies: 39
Views: 3952

Re: Home appraisal gone wrong (split levels and livable space)

Are you sure even more debt with an adjustable rate HELOC is a good idea? Around here a lower appraisal is a good thing because it lowers your property tax.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Bonds in a Taxable Account
Replies: 5
Views: 657

Re: Advice on Bonds in a Taxable Account

Just as many on the other side lament that total bond has too much government debt in it making it too safe! I use total bond entirely (but not the ETF) in taxable and think it is perfectly fine for any horizon longer than 5 years. The tax brackets have changed so those of us on the lower end are ev...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reinvest dividends or sweep to settlement account
Replies: 38
Views: 4691

Re: Reinvest dividends or sweep to settlement account

Also use settlement account and only use the money to rebalance in lots of $500 or more. Just can't stand the monthly noise of automatic rebalancing. Although with all the sweep in sweep out records, it is actually more noisy in a way. But when it comes time to sell or pay taxes, it will be simpler.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...When Will the Tencent Bubble Burst?
Replies: 13
Views: 2017

Re: So...When Will the Tencent Bubble Burst?

To be completely honest, the fast-paced growth of these firms got me very excited, but then I took a look at the PE ratios. Tencent has a PE ratio of over 57 and Alibaba over 52!! P/E tells us little about the future performance of a stock, however I don't think these PE ratios are high at all for ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I ask for a larger raise at yearly review?
Replies: 37
Views: 2515

Re: Should I ask for a larger raise at yearly review?

I would put my effort into getting a better offer from the competition and then use that as leverage next time around. If you are unable to get a better offer, in this market, that is a telling comment on how good the current job is.