Search found 1673 matches

by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: problem with FLOT
Replies: 2
Views: 166

Re: problem with FLOT

Ouch, an 11 percent drop in a fund that didn't seem to move at all since 2011. Lots of bond funds lost money here, corporate bonds, mbs, municipal bonds, all of these are risky enough to lose money in really bad times. Still, you did better than you would have in stocks by about 3 times. I would say...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6246

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Took about 6 years last time, so I would guess some time in 2026. President Nick Nolte will get a boost in the polls as a result.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?
Replies: 68
Views: 8445

Re: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?

I think it may be one of the worst times to buy them in a lifetime, actually. They have done great since I was born in 1982 and have slowly declined in appeal since then.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you get $1k from the federal government stimulus, what will you do with it?
Replies: 9
Views: 745

Re: If you get $1k from the federal government stimulus, what will you do with it?

Invest it in stocks, not quite what they have in mind but better for the economy than putting it into a bank account.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?
Replies: 37
Views: 3111

Re: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?

Also $DRI - Darden Restaurants, people are going to eat food again.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent in the Time of Coronavirus
Replies: 78
Views: 2971

Re: Rent in the Time of Coronavirus

Always negotiate, negotiate a job offer, negotiate rent, negotiate a car purchase... I have never paid asking for an apartment and have consistently gotten 5-10% reductions in rent just by asking. A 10% reduction in rent over 10 years will save you a small fortune. This is an uncertain time and I kn...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?
Replies: 37
Views: 3111

Re: For those that buy single stocks, what to watch?

Fujifilm Toyama Chemical! But seriously, oil and airlines are likely to get a bailout and if they do recover, these prices are a joke. However they could also get nationalized, have their original shareholders wiped out, etc.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626379

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Also it's been a straight line up since 2009 with hardly any downturns to scare people. The 2011 and 2018 drops did scare some people, each was almost 20%. This is shaping up to be the mother of all drops. It's too late for me to sell now so I'll keep grabbing for the falling knife until VOO goes t...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a point of holding bonds now?
Replies: 8
Views: 1034

Re: Is there a point of holding bonds now?

I am using i-bonds now, they are a special kind of bond but in my mind offer superior options at this current time. 6 months at 2.2%, .2% over inflation for 30 years, tax deferred, reduced taxes for NYC residents like me, and your balance can't drop no matter what interest rates do.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 503
Views: 50418

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

Science institution, we are closed down and most staff working from home. Only a few key people like lab stewardship and security are on site. Our real stress test comes 2-3 years down the road as donations, grants, and other sources of income dry up. That was the lag time for layoffs after the Grea...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last gasp of the bull
Replies: 118
Views: 18106

Re: Last gasp of the bull

He gambled and won. Can't take too much pride in a lucky lotto ticket. Gambling is putting entire money on the red ball. He did his due diligence and had optionality to cover the losses from 65:35 portfolio I've known countless gamblers, they always have a great system in place to explain the lucky...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last gasp of the bull
Replies: 118
Views: 18106

Re: Last gasp of the bull

He gambled and won. Can't take too much pride in a lucky lotto ticket. Gambling is putting entire money on the red ball. He did his due diligence and had optionality to cover the losses from 65:35 portfolio I've known countless gamblers, they always have a great system in place to explain the lucky...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last gasp of the bull
Replies: 118
Views: 18106

Re: Last gasp of the bull

He gambled and won. Can't take too much pride in a lucky lotto ticket.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone else thing this crash has no merit?
Replies: 6
Views: 1017

Re: Does anyone else thing this crash has no merit?

As terrible as the deaths are, and they are terrible, this crash is about the clear and present economic impacts of shutting down entire countries for weeks or even months at a time. Many millions will lose their jobs, many business with fail, and if those without a job stop spending money, if those...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Treasury
Replies: 48
Views: 2275

Re: Long Term Treasury

If I could go back in time I would have been all in LTT. Unfortunately my reasons for not wanting them a year ago are 10x stronger now.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in VTSAX, probably not the smartest move I've made, seeking advice
Replies: 57
Views: 4954

Re: All in VTSAX, probably not the smartest move I've made, seeking advice

I'm debating on selling this and taking a loss now, or really riding this out through the unknown. I know none of us have a crystal ball, but I feel that some of yours may be less clouded than mine. Any advice on what to do? Absolutely not. Why would you buy high and sell low? Say that phrase out-l...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single Stock Thread - Oil Stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 411

Re: Single Stock Thread - Oil Stocks

My personal choice is to just buy more of a total stock mutual fund, as you will get not only depressed oil stocks but also depressed airlines, cruise ships, gaming/casinos, retail, tech, you name it. They are all down 20-30 percent at this point. However if you are asking if oil stocks are a good d...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A silver lining in all this (for some)
Replies: 4
Views: 988

Re: A silver lining in all this (for some)

Not for all. My parents retired years ago but then as now, they retired to a fixed income from social security, pension, etc. I was chatting with them the other day and remarking how they are least impacted by a depression because their monthly checks are fixed as are their monthly costs. The people...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 320
Views: 25668

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Down about 27% in all stock holdings, cash holdings are slightly up of course. All told, I am about $10,000 above where I was on January 1st, 2019. Not horrible in the scheme of things.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I don't have a plan. What should I do?
Replies: 10
Views: 940

Re: I don't have a plan. What should I do?

I think your asset mix looks reasonable and if you work hard and save hard, your age 64 retirement could be reasonable. 12 years is plenty of time for the markets to recover. How much rebalancing do you have to do? It sounds like the 401K is a fixed asset ratio so it won't have to be rebalanced.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move to CD now after rate cut?
Replies: 23
Views: 2502

Re: Move to CD now after rate cut?

Alan S. wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:54 pm

"Financial repression" is back yet again. That term basically means that savers will be paying for debtors to borrow more at historically low rates. And of course the largest debtor is the US Govt.
Not sure how low these rates are if inflation is below zero.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20893

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

Maxing out 401K 100% equities. Can't touch it for 21 years minimum, I have every confidence stocks will be higher in 21 year than today.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house - should I get out of it now?
Replies: 40
Views: 3636

Re: Buying a house - should I get out of it now?

I would urge a more careful assessment of your job security. Why would finance and advertising be anything but vulnerable in a deep recession?
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Silver for apocalypse
Replies: 63
Views: 3255

Re: Buying Silver for apocalypse

Buy guns, ammo, medicine, machetes, shoes, other clothing, and alcohol, will be worth more than metal disks when the economy collapses.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626379

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I spoke to soon, 2nd worst decline in history, no? Only Black Monday was worse. (But it was way worse.)
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626379

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Looks like 3rd worst day on record for Dow. (Biggest point decline in history by far, of course.)
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 153
Views: 16448

Re: The Black Swan is Here

We've been talking about it forever on this forum but I think it's here. The stock market is crashing, public places are closed, stores ran out of stuff, people will soon lose their jobs, and no antidote for the plague yet. In time like this, this retired person is glad that I have 10 years of annu...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626379

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is just too good. Dipped a toe and will dip another one as we go down the stair steps. At this point I don't know when to buy anymore. When your blood is in the streets. Not even a double-digit day right now, amazing how quickly one's tolerance for big moves can increase. Forget toes, I'm in t...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is continuing to buy as planned?
Replies: 119
Views: 8145

Re: Who is continuing to buy as planned?

I am buying the maximum I can at this point, bi-weekly contributions to 401K. Wynn at a PE of 4, XOM at a PE of 8 with a 10% dividend yield... Of course these companies are going to take major hits this year, but most of them will recover in a few years especially if government helps them with loans...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?
Replies: 56
Views: 3743

Re: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?

Waited an extra month for a large batch of ID lanyards back when only China was severely impacted. The only real impacts I am seeing around here is the result of locals panic buying/hoarding things they can't possibly use in a year, i.e. the buy side is causing the disruption here not the supply.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9601

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

Everything impacts everything. Unemployment has a self-sustaining property that depresses economic activity and causes job loss. This is how the depression developed. If we are at 10% unemployment in 3 years, earnings will stay low for some time to come. People without jobs don't spend as much.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20325

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

Rates can go below zero, so future rate drops are the most obvious answer to this. A lot of stuff can’t happen is happening. We’re going to see negative rates. Note that I said "can" rather than "can't." However I don't think rates will go below zero in this country, there is a psychological barrie...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20325

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

Rates can go below zero, so future rate drops are the most obvious answer to this. A lot of stuff can’t happen is happening. We’re going to see negative rates. Note that I said "can" rather than "can't." However I don't think rates will go below zero in this country, there is a psychological barrie...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20325

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

With rates at zero now, I wonder what tools they have remaining if this doesn’t suffice? Rates can go below zero, so future rate drops are the most obvious answer to this, not that I expect it to happen. As to other 'nuclear' level options, the FED is probably out of options now that they committed...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell Or Wait
Replies: 5
Views: 535

Re: Sell Or Wait

I would sell them all on my personal policy against stock picking, on my personal feelings about Uber, and on the fact that people are not trying to get places and sit in enclosed cars with strangers for the next month. I think losing $7 per share means getting off light this time around. And no, yo...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: student loan interest frozen- invest or pay off loans?
Replies: 19
Views: 843

Re: student loan interest frozen- invest or pay off loans?

Unless a job loss forced me to stop paying, I would continue paying back the money I borrowed on schedule. Being in debt 6 months longer doesn't appeal to me. In fact, maybe you are paying debt off faster now because a few extra percent can go against the principal.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Breaking the buck
Replies: 27
Views: 2470

Re: Breaking the buck

I never understood why breaking the buck is such a big deal. So what if a MM fund drops 1%? Your loss of income will quickly eclipse that as interest rates go to zero. Because cash equivalents aren't supposed to do that. Now that they have done it, cash equivalents "rarely" break the buck. The spos...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Breaking the buck
Replies: 27
Views: 2470

Re: Breaking the buck

I never understood why breaking the buck is such a big deal. So what if a MM fund drops 1%? Your loss of income will quickly eclipse that as interest rates go to zero.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Sell my stock shares (procedure question)
Replies: 29
Views: 1121

Re: How to Sell my stock shares (procedure question)

Just before you pull the trigger, make sure you have a reason for holding this stock for 19 years only to sell it after a record-breaking drop. Why wasn't it much more temping to sell when it broke 100? If a bailout is announced tomorrow you could be back up $30,000 overnight. I would be tempted to ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS might extend deadline for paying taxes due for 201months.
Replies: 8
Views: 918

Re: IRS might extend deadline for paying taxes due for 201months.

Shocking, any idea if they will automatically delay? I already scheduled my payment for 4/15, wonder if there is a way to cancel that.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should people STOP investing in favor of boosting their emergency funds?
Replies: 83
Views: 5540

Re: Should people STOP investing in favor of boosting their emergency funds?

It's a bit too late to wait for an emergency to build an emergency fund. I like to keep a hefty amount like 12-16 months. 16 months was the median unemployment duration for my field of work during the depths of the great recession, essentially there was a 2 year window where institutions were rarely...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds and coronavirus.
Replies: 48
Views: 3601

Re: Bond funds and coronavirus.

Yes there was a rather sudden drop in bond funds, but they have still shown incredible performance since late 2018. (Incredible as bonds go, anyway.) Nothing to complain about at all.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22353

Re: International is in meltdown

Toyota now at a PE ratio of 7 with a div yield of 3.5 %. Yes of course these numbers are subject to change with an international slowdown but I am still happy buying stocks like this. Are you a stock picker? No but Toyota represents one of the thousands of stocks that I buy every 14 days in my inte...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22353

Re: International is in meltdown

Toyota now at a PE ratio of 7 with a div yield of 3.5 %. Yes of course these numbers are subject to change with an international slowdown but I am still happy buying stocks like this. Are you a stock picker? No but Toyota represents one of the thousands of stocks that I buy every 14 days in my inte...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22353

Re: International is in meltdown

Toyota now at a PE ratio of 7 with a div yield of 3.5 %. Yes of course these numbers are subject to change with an international slowdown but I am still happy buying stocks like this.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pandemic, economy and buying big ticket items
Replies: 29
Views: 2897

Re: Pandemic, economy and buying big ticket items

On the risk of a depression, I am not going to buy anything I don't really need. Sorry that isn't as fun : )
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296686

Re: What happens if the Fed cuts to zero, but the Coronavirus situation drastically IMPROVES starting next week?

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, it wasn't possible for the Fed to stimulate the economy "too much". That's why we still see little inflation alongside very low unemployment. I think one thing people may be overlooking is the supply side component - inflation is still a possibility if major produ...