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by cflannagan
Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

hillclimber wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:42 pm HFEA was designed the way it was because hedgefundie assumed 1970's style inflation was off the table. Gold, commodities, and tips can be used if you disagree with him.
He did? I thought that was more of saying callable treasuries, which largely ended in 1982, were off the table.

I seem to recall Hedgefundie admitting that a major risk to HFEA is if stocks and bonds dive downwards together, similar to 70's inflation. I could be misremembering though.
by cflannagan
Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'd like to raise the possibility of temporarily holding cash instead of TMF this year while we are going to go thru the rate increases. I think's market showed the taste of what is going to be happening for a while until the fed is done with rate increases (they are going to do three). I'm not sure it's a good idea to execute HFEA with two falling assets. Thoughts? My thoughts? You're making a huge mistake. IMHO, I feel like you should be more worried about the damage UPRO could do to your numbers if you are not hedged (or go cash instead of using a real hedge). If the TMF position in HFEA seems too volatile for you - the asset that's there to smooth out the rollercoaster and make things lesser volatile, then I don't think you can stomach...
by cflannagan
Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

60/40 in order to maintain the current ratio. This maximizes performance according to backtests , ensuring rebalance only occurs quarterly. I'm not aware of any such backtests, can you point me out to those so I can see for myself? Yes, quarterly rebalancing frequency have been backtested, I'm referring to the part where you say it've been backtested to show it's better to make new contributions at current allocations (60/40 for example) than to add money into underperforming asset to bring it back to the target allocation, then add the rest of the new money according to target %'s. If done correctly, making new contributions to the portfolio makes no difference in the performance (in terms of %) of it, so you can simply backtest as if you...
by cflannagan
Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

AlinMC wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:19 am
60/40 in order to maintain the current ratio. This maximizes performance according to backtests, ensuring rebalance only occurs quarterly.
I'm not aware of any such backtests, can you point me out to those so I can see for myself? Yes, quarterly rebalancing frequency have been backtested, I'm referring to the part where you say it've been backtested to show it's better to make new contributions at current allocations (60/40 for example) than to add money into underperforming asset to bring it back to the target allocation, then add the rest of the new money according to target %'s.
by cflannagan
Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

viajero wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:50 am What's the recommendation for bi-weekly contributions? Allocate them according to target allocation, or rebalance the portfolio to target? I.e. buy 50/10/40 UPRO/TQQQ/TMF (my target allocation) just with the new money, or make the whole portfolio rebalance to that?
I would put money into the underperforming asset first, until target allocations are reached. And then if there's still money left, allocate them according to targets.

In other words, do what M1 Finance would do if you added new money with autoinvest on, into a HFEA pie.
by cflannagan
Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Why would you use VIX-based ETFs tho? Way I see it, those ones are beneficial only if markets are constantly crashing. But that's not the case. And when markets is relatively stable, those ETFs are just a drag on your portfolio overall. You'd actually perform better over long term if you swap out those VIX-based ETFs for cash. Even though using cash for hedging is bad too. Switching 10% VXZ for 10% CASHX seems to provide the same return, though the drawdown is greater. So VXZ is slightly better than CASHX since 2004. But I see your point. https://i.imgur.com/HoDDCtj.png If the hedge can be done less expensively via VXX call options, I would love to know the details of this. I just have no way of knowing or testing the percentage of portfol...
by cflannagan
Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm a bit haunted by some very early comments in this thread that this strategy would never have gotten traction if HedgeFundie had included 1950-1980 backtests in the initial thread. The key criticism was that this strategy only looks good because of the bull run in bonds since the 80's, which many consider is unrepeatable - and this was a strong view in mid-2019, well before rates going to 0. Treasuries were callable pre-1982. So yes, my FUD about TMF has returned (.....it might have had something to do with TMF's -7.5% drop yesterday). I don't think that's even a big drop, I believe I've seen bigger drops in the short time I've been in HFEA since July. Last December I ended my UPRO/TMF/VXX experiment after seeing its performance since 2...
by cflannagan
Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

viajero wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:33 am
DarkMatter731 wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:33 am
Not trying to be rude here but have you read the previous threads and this one?
No offence taken :) and yes, I have spent a few hours to read thru the thread, and that's why I am trying to really understand various possibilities. If you look at the charts, TQQQ and TMF correlation is not really obvious - on some time periods they sort of correlate (before 2020 crash) then they started reverse correlating. And if rates start going up even a little, both should correlate down. That's why I got an idea about cash instead of TMF, but I don't know how to back test it.
Backtest. If you want to see the results using TQQQ instead, you can do the input yourself in the link I provided.
by cflannagan
Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Can someone please explain me why balancing UPRO with TMF is better than with cash? There is no correlation (or reverse correlation) between the two. If the fed rates go up, TMF will most probably go down significantly, but TQQQ will probably correct as well. Am I missing some logic here? 1) TMF, like other similar bond funds (TLT, IEF, etc), has positive expected returns. 2) IMHO, people seem to be too worried about interest rates going up and affecting TMF when they should be more worried about the amount of volatility they would see by going with a bad hedge choice like cash, or god forbid, something like SQQQ, SPXS, or one of those VTI-based ETFs. Yes, I've seen people actually suggest the latter (SQQQ, SPXS, etc) not here but mostly i...
by cflannagan
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does anyone know if HF actually made it through the Covid drop? Was that update on March 18th the last time he posted? I hope he didn't panic sell. Edit: Ok nevermind, the last time HF posted in HFEA was late May 2020 and he was active on BH as recently as July 2020. For a second there I put 2 and 2 together and thought the worst. In my mind the guy is somewhat of an urban legend, kinda like Satoshi Nakamoto. Yeah. Compared to others here, Hedgefundie would probably be among one of the very last person I figured would panic-sell on his own strategy. I am sure Hedgefundie fully knew what would happen with the HFEA portfolio if markets went south hard. Not only that, he did it with a portion of his NW where he was (mostly) perfectly fine if ...
by cflannagan
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If only HF hadn't left us hanging on one of the most volatile days of the last decade :annoyed UPRO traded between $19.70 and $25.13. If he took that screenshot at midday when he was down bad and you're calculating from EOD then there's going to be a huge divergence. TMF even worse, low of $25.54 and high of $35.60 according to the NASDAQ. Literally a 40% difference. Great point, I hadn't thought about that amount of volatility during the day. Although I suspect Hedgefundie is the type of person who probably wouldn't just update chart when the trading day is still midway. I see it says the last edit to the post was at 6:52pm. Last edited by HEDGEFUNDIE on Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:52 pm, edited 4 times in total. Thanks for making these calculatio...
by cflannagan
Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Afrofreak wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:55 pm If only HF hadn't left us hanging on one of the most volatile days of the last decade :annoyed UPRO traded between $19.70 and $25.13. If he took that screenshot at midday when he was down bad and you're calculating from EOD then there's going to be a huge divergence. TMF even worse, low of $25.54 and high of $35.60 according to the NASDAQ. Literally a 40% difference.
Great point, I hadn't thought about that amount of volatility during the day.

Although I suspect Hedgefundie is the type of person who probably wouldn't just update chart when the trading day is still midway.

I see it says the last edit to the post was at 6:52pm.
Last edited by HEDGEFUNDIE on Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:52 pm, edited 4 times in total.
by cflannagan
Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer 2021 inflation 6.7%
Replies: 9
Views: 1118

Re: Portfolio Visualizer 2021 inflation 6.7%

Just in case it works (I was surprised it did), I googled "inflation 6.71%", got some hits, including this one. Hope that helps!
by cflannagan
Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Quartery check-in time, let's see where HEDGEFUNDIE'S portfolio would be at today The methodology I used in Portfolio Visualizer is as follows: Start date: Feb 2019, i.e., when the original thread was created Initial Allocation: 40% UPRO/60% TMF through July 2019 Updated Allocation: 55% UPRO/45% TMF beginning Aug 2019, i.e., when HFEA Part 2 was established Results Initial Balance: $100,000 Current Balance: $359,948 CAGR: 47.32% (since 55/45 update) My calculations shows Hedgefundie's HFEA positions would have been closer to $298,091.60. My methodology: Taking the last known accurate balance update on March 18, 2020 of $99,007.44: https://i.imgur.com/2UdF79T.png Using composer.trade, setting UPRO to 55%, TMF to 45%, with quarterly rebalanc...
by cflannagan
Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

spiyer99 wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:16 pm Apparently there are now 5x leveraged etfs... What does everyone think of these?
I don't. And that'd be my advice to others too. Don't even think about it.
by cflannagan
Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Why does TLT/TMF go up in price when there is a lot of talks that the fed will taper? Because markets aren't that simple. What makes you think the markets hasn't priced in that expectation already? There are times when the market expectation clearly changes though. Like Powell's recent testimony before Congress which was somewhat surprising and caused some significant market moves. Short term rates increased while longer rates decreased. A surprisingly fast taper / hawkish FED in the short term is good for TMF because it reduces long-term inflation and growth. Well, that means the expectations has changed though. So markets react accordingly right? I'm just trying to explain to the other person that it isn't really that surprising that we ...
by cflannagan
Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure
Replies: 370
Views: 99542

Re: Riding HEDGEFUNDIE’s excellent adventure

bgf wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:07 pm I don't know the answer to your question, but I do appreciate you referencing a discussion of narrow rebalancing bands. That sounds like it hits on exactly my question. Now I just have to find it in that monster thread!
Don't know if this helped but I picked very narrow rebalancing bands (1% lol), the CAGR is worse than quarterly rebalancing. I keep raising in multiples of 5%. 10%, 15%, 20%, all the way up to 50%, etc, couldn't beat the CAGR we get from quarterly rebalancing.

Play with the numbers for yourself
by cflannagan
Fri Dec 03, 2021 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

kbourgu wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:31 pm Why does TLT/TMF go up in price when there is a lot of talks that the fed will taper?
Because markets aren't that simple.

What makes you think the markets hasn't priced in that expectation already?
by cflannagan
Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA after FSA
Replies: 8
Views: 846

Re: HSA after FSA

Got new job that stared Monday 11/29. Had PPO with FSA to which I contributed January through my last paycheck today. Now want to enroll in new HSA and HDHP. New company website saying I’m not eligible if had FSA but I don’t think that’s right since they are non-overlapping months. Furthermore I want to max it out using the last month rule. Is this allowed or am I out of luck? "Last paycheck" - meaning you're now terminated from the employer? Or do you just mean last paycheck for the year? Nvm, I re-read, it sounds like OP has new employer. If you're still employed by the same employer, your FSA is still considered "active" for the year, so you can't have HSA in same year as long as FSA is active. There are some excepti...
by cflannagan
Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth Swings
Replies: 35
Views: 4056

Re: Net Worth Swings

JoeRetire wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:39 pm I don't personally care about the ERN series. Nor do I can about the "simulation" tool in question.

I was just reporting on what the tool says, not that it actually makes any sense.
Gotcha. No, the tool doesn't make one bit of sense. IDK what's up with that, lawl.
by cflannagan
Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth Swings
Replies: 35
Views: 4056

Re: Net Worth Swings

JoeRetire wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:23 pm
100% equities?
Really.
Uh.. yes.. really. Particularly for 50-year horizons. Unless we want to tell ERN series on SWR their findings were incorrect all along?

Image

Also: at $3mil, $60k annual expense, 50 years, 100% bonds has same success rate as 100% equities (give or take 1%). lawl.
by cflannagan
Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth Swings
Replies: 35
Views: 4056

Re: Net Worth Swings

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:56 pm
pokebowl wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:02 pm
anon_investor wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:25 am
I agree with this, but is 30x the new 25x?
33x definitely is for those of us looking to FIRE outside the traditional 30 year windows. :beer
Retirement Nest Egg Calculator is my trusty go-to on this matter. link Okay, I don't actually know how trusty it is, but it's fun to play with.
I know Vanguard has a reputation for being conservative, but I played with that calculator. I had 60x the annual expense, 50 years, 100% equities ($3 million portfolio, for $50k annual expense). Still couldn't even get 100% success rate. Really?
by cflannagan
Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If 30 years treasuries went to 10% would you put all your money in them? If not tell me why?
Replies: 44
Views: 4363

Re: If 30 years treasuries went to 10% would you put all your money in them? If not tell me why?

As others mentioned, I cannot find myself putting 100% of my NW into one asset. That'd be putting all eggs in one basket.
by cflannagan
Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth Swings
Replies: 35
Views: 4056

Re: Net Worth Swings

Currently, if my liquid assets appreciates 11.3% annualized (0.94% gains monthly), that'll be enough to cover my gross (pre-tax) salary. So yeah, I like the spot I'm in currently. But nowhere near liking it enough to be confident my liquid assets will fund my retirement if I retire today. Still some ways to go.
by cflannagan
Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over 80% of step up inflation is due to pandemic-associated disruptions
Replies: 22
Views: 2751

Re: Over 80% of step up inflation is due to pandemic-associated disruptions

So does this (assuming this is true) lend into the credence that inflation we're seeing now is probably mostly transitory?
by cflannagan
Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.75M nest egg, 84K expenses: Can we take a break/slow down?
Replies: 44
Views: 9013

Re: 2.75M nest egg, 84K expenses: Can we take a break/slow down?

If you want your AA to last you 50 years at least, your AA of 50/25/25 is probably too conservative. Especially with your annual expense increasing as your kids grow up. Against historical returns (meaning not guaranteed for future), if you retire now, 25% of the time your portfolio would run out of money . 25% is way too high. I'd take a serious look at your AA. If you change your AA to 60/40, which is still pretty conservative, CFireSim reports 100% success rate against historical data . But as I said, your expenses will increase. If you want your portfolio to last, with annual expenses bumped up to say, $100k a year, with 100/0 equities/bond mix, your success rate would be 94% against historical data . Note that above simulations doesn't...
by cflannagan
Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)
Replies: 857
Views: 158069

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)

Curious if there has been any research done on something like using NTSX to mitigate SORR (sequence of return risk).

60/40 would mitigate away most of the SORR issue compared to 100/0. But with a 90/60 exposure to equities/bonds for the price of just 100, would we get most of the upside potential (90% of it), while having a hefty ability to mitigate SORR at the same time?
by cflannagan
Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar released their new report on SWR. [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 255
Views: 23825

Re: WSJ Article on 4% Rule

My viewpoint on SWR rates (4%, 3.33%, etc) is that there's no such thing as an one-size-fits-all SWR, period. 4% (Trinity study) would work well for a 30-year retirement period, with success meaning still having at least a penny at the end of the period. ERN series on SWR rates looked at the question in a much more comprehensive approach. 30-year, 40-year, 50-year, various AA's (100% equities, 60/40 mix, etc), capital depletion vs capital preservation, glidepaths, etc. I wrote down my SWR goal (it's a bit lower than 4%) because my goals were capital preservation (leaving my kids legacy), 50-year (rather than 30-year), and glidepathed AA. Really, bottom line is, we have to be flexible with our spending. To my understanding SWR is purely an a...
by cflannagan
Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years [Sell bonds?]
Replies: 307
Views: 49438

Re: Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

So with all the talks of "Financial repression", what do we think this means for bonds from a "flight to safety" role viewpoint?

As in some investors might not necessarily rely on bonds for returns (and in fact might be okay with slightly negative returns over long period of time), but are relying on bonds as a form of crash insurance. If we see another major crash like dotcom, housing, or COVID-19 crash.. how do we think bond funds would tend to react here, in times of "financial repression" that the govt is doing? Will this role become weaker, or will that role still be there? Will the positions in bond cushion the investor from downward movement (-50% becomes -30% or -20%) like they did before?
by cflannagan
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX Owner > Anyone thinking of moving to cash for a bit?
Replies: 60
Views: 9223

Re: VTSAX Owner > Anyone thinking of moving to cash for a bit?

financialfreedom87 wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:04 am VTSAX Owner > Anyone thinking of moving to cash for a bit?
Yeah, just a bit of my VTSAX holdings. To pay some of my expenses in retirement.

Not a moment before.
by cflannagan
Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hfearless wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:33 pm
darkcam wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:33 pm Wouldn't the margin interest exceed the fees that LETF's have? I'm trying to understand why achieving leverage through futures would be advantageous.
Portfolio size: $120k
Desired allocation: 100% SPX, 200% ITT

Implementation 1: 33% UPRO, 66% TYD
Annual cost: 1% of $120k

Implementation 2: 100% VOO, 2 /ZF
Annual cost: 0.03% of $120k + 1.5% of $2k
If my calculations was correct, 2 /ZF costs $80k? As in 1 /ZF costs $40k?

Would $60k be roughly the minimum for one to be able to do Implementation #2 (with 1 ZF instead of 2?)
by cflannagan
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax TY2021
Replies: 265
Views: 40597

Re: TurboTax TY2021

FreeTaxUSA.com +1 to this. Haven't paid a penny for filing taxes for the last 2 tax years. Well, I live in a state where I don't have to file income taxes for (Florida), so that helps too. This is surely a naive question, but can someone enlighten me as to how this company is able to undercut TurboTax by such a huge amount while ostensibly still covering "all tax situations"? Is Intuit just massively ripping us off? What's going on here? :confused Funnily, FreeTaxUSA has the answer to that question on top of page as soon as you click "Free Edition": "We make money from our state tax return and other optional services. You receive excellent value for every dollar spent." Thinking about this some more, I have no...
by cflannagan
Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What prices have noticeably changed for you? (Coffee inflation)
Replies: 89
Views: 6744

Re: What prices have noticeably changed for you? (Coffee inflation)

shunkman wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:58 pm Next will be another round of shrinking package sizes. This bothers me more than increasing the shelf price.
NEW! Lay's Potato Chips, now with 5% more air!
by cflannagan
Sun Nov 21, 2021 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14360
Views: 1989795

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Afrofreak wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 2:28 pm

Paging @skierincolorado
Anyone know how to send them a notification from a post like on reddit?
Don't know if a direct way to notify someone on Bogleheads forum at present time, but a workaround could be to do a quote with his name in it. If he has it in settings to be notified whenever someone quotes him, that should send out a notification? Although if he has it in settings to not be notified whenever someone quotes him, that method won't work.
by cflannagan
Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can one buy TLT on margin to offset 100% Equities?
Replies: 9
Views: 1188

Re: Can one buy TLT on margin to offset 100% Equities?

Booogle wrote: Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:32 pm Yes, but what about people who invested years before NTSX existed?

They can't sell off unless they want to pay huge taxes.
True. Ok, so you're trying to add some bonds to your AA, with nearly all of your NW being in taxable space?
by cflannagan
Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can one buy TLT on margin to offset 100% Equities?
Replies: 9
Views: 1188

Re: Can one buy TLT on margin to offset 100% Equities?

Also, have you checked out NTSX?

NTSX gives you 90% equities unlevered, and 60% bonds exposure with the remaining 10% of cash used to purchase treasury futures to obtain 6x leverage. And you don't have to pay anything for borrowing on margin. NTSX has low expense ratio, is good for taxable space as well. Not sure what it is you're trying to achieve with 100% equities & 20% TLT, but depending on your goal, maybe NTSX is right up your alley?
by cflannagan
Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can one buy TLT on margin to offset 100% Equities?
Replies: 9
Views: 1188

Re: Can one buy TLT on margin to offset 100% Equities?

Booogle wrote: Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:12 pm
livesoft wrote: Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:45 am Sure, if you have a so-called margin account with enough collateral in it.

It seems your PV run did not take into account the interest that you would pay for borrowing money to buy TLT on margin, but maybe I missed that.
Well if there is a way to add margin interest into the backtest, I will.
You can add a % for "debt interest" but that's only available through "Leverage ratio", which means you'd have to remove CASHX positions.

I'm not sure why PV couldn't just add a field to put in debt interest, and allow us to be able to do that without having to do it through "leverage ratio" option.
by cflannagan
Sat Nov 20, 2021 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)
Replies: 857
Views: 158069

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)

LincolnTunnel wrote: Sat Nov 20, 2021 2:29 pm I just discovered that there is now an international equivalent (NTSI) to NTSX. I'm going to be rebalancing soon and I anticipate that I will need to add international exposure. What are people's thoughts on NTSI vs, say Fidelity Total Interntional Index Fund (FTIHX)?
Be aware that there has been discussions about liquidity concerns with NTSI and NTSE, because of low AUM. NTSX does not have the same issue.

Hopefully things will improve with NTSI and NTSE to the point where liquidity is no longer an issue.

Some more recent discussions on NTSI and NTSE here if you are interested
by cflannagan
Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how much do you need to retire?
Replies: 63
Views: 10838

Re: how much do you need to retire?

Wiggums wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:28 am Subtract your sources of retirement income and subtract from your annual retirement expenses (including taxes)

That gives you the annual amount that will come from your portfolio

Multiple the annual amount withdrawal from your portfolio and multiply by the number of years in retirement

That gives you a retirement savings portfolio size goal
That's not how it works. This doesn't factor in the portfolio growing thru the years.

For example, someone retiring at age of 20 with about $65k annual expenses, no debt, and $2 million liquid assets, can probably retire right away, with initial year WR being 3.33%. Does not need to have like $4 million (if we're assuming life expectancy is until age 80)
by cflannagan
Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)
Replies: 857
Views: 158069

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)

muffins14 wrote: Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:54 am Has there ever been a 16.6% single-day drop in an intermediate treasury bond?
I wouldn't know. I wonder if it's the type of thing that's as silly as worrying about the possibility of an extinction-level asteroid hitting Earth today.

But when we're considering NTSX, we should know about what risks are real, what aren't.

Also, to my understanding, NTSX doesn't just do futures on one maturity, they trade on all parts of the yield curve. Have _any_ part of the yield curve ever moved 16.67% in one day?

Also, doesn't NTSX reset quarterly with 5% rebalancing bands? (not daily reset)? I don't know whether that helps or make things worse for this question.
by cflannagan
Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)
Replies: 857
Views: 158069

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)

Bonds are leveraged to 6x for NTSX - Would a 16.67% downward movement on any part of the yield curve wipe out the futures being traded on that part of the curve in the NTSX's bond holdings?
by cflannagan
Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Epic bear market on the way?
Replies: 113
Views: 19444

Re: Epic bear market on the way?

Necro-bump for fun.... Did this OP call the GFC a few weeks before all hell broke loose? Why does Burry get all the credit when BH had one. also? :D Even though the article was right, I still see it as "broken clock is right twice a day" deal. There's so much noise going on on the market news that if we had a major crash tomorrow, at least a small subset of those articles would seem to "correctly" predict the crash before it happened. But nobody can do that reliably on a constant basis at all. I remember dotcom crash well. We were sounding alarms, everything's way overvalued, etc. But the market continued to appreciate for few YEARS more. Before it finally came all crashing down. Anyone who sat out those few years misse...
by cflannagan
Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 195
Views: 30229

Re: I won the game but kept playing

I don’t understand how you could have lost, even with 100% stock allocation, if you had stayed invested. My guess is you got out of the market, and waited too long to get back in. I stayed 100% in stocks in 2020 and 2021, and my total returns were 47% and 36%, respectively. This thread was created right around COVID-19 crash in March 2020. Someone earlier decided to necro-comment into this thread for some reason. Not like we need a "this one didn't age well!" glib for every single thread created around the times of extreme stress. I just feel like there's bad taste in doing that. I think most people anticipate getting good news along the lines of staying the course for a while then re-evaluating AA after the rebound. I know that ...
by cflannagan
Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 195
Views: 30229

Re: I won the game but kept playing

I don’t understand how you could have lost, even with 100% stock allocation, if you had stayed invested. My guess is you got out of the market, and waited too long to get back in. I stayed 100% in stocks in 2020 and 2021, and my total returns were 47% and 36%, respectively. This thread was created right around COVID-19 crash in March 2020. Someone earlier decided to necro-comment into this thread for some reason. Not like we need a "this one didn't age well!" glib for every single thread created around the times of extreme stress. I just feel like there's bad taste in doing that. I think most people anticipate getting good news along the lines of staying the course for a while then re-evaluating AA after the rebound. I know that ...
by cflannagan
Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 195
Views: 30229

Re: I won the game but kept playing

Activesloth wrote: Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:53 pm I don’t understand how you could have lost, even with 100% stock allocation, if you had stayed invested. My guess is you got out of the market, and waited too long to get back in. I stayed 100% in stocks in 2020 and 2021, and my total returns were 47% and 36%, respectively.
This thread was created right around COVID-19 crash in March 2020.

Someone earlier decided to necro-comment into this thread for some reason. Not like we need a "this one didn't age well!" glib for every single thread created around the times of extreme stress. I just feel like there's bad taste in doing that.
by cflannagan
Mon Nov 15, 2021 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experian Credit Freeze
Replies: 21
Views: 2426

Re: Experian Credit Freeze

I finally got around to freezing my credit. It was easy to freeze Transunion and Equifax using their website; however, when I attempted to freeze Experian via their website, I received a message directing me to mail in my request - they couldn't process with the information provided. Have I been flagged for suspected identity theft? Anyone else have this problem? Thanks. Experian is <expletive removed by myself> stupid when it comes to UX (user experience) with adding freezing. I complained about it here as well. I feel like Experian is opening themselves up for yet another class action lawsuit because they aren't making it easy to place freeze - if it's relatively easy with Transunion and Equifax, there's no reason why Experian can't do i...
by cflannagan
Sun Nov 14, 2021 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Refrigerator: repair or replace?
Replies: 56
Views: 4135

Re: Refrigerator: repair or replace?

We had a GE Profile fridge bought around the same time as yours. It was very unreliable and noisy. Multiple repairs when it was new and that continued as we owned it. I was not unhappy when it died last year. I will never buy another GE appliance. When it was new, the Google Maps street view of our house showed the GE service truck in our drive. :shock: Mine has otherwise been good to me, but I would definitely choose another brand next time. If I do buy one, how is Samsung? Probably the least reliable brand you can buy. Yeah. Never ever again will we buy a Samsung brand fridge. Never. There is an active class action lawsuit against Samsung related to defective icemakers in their french-door fridge line. Constant issue with moving motor pa...
by cflannagan
Sun Nov 14, 2021 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Refrigerator: repair or replace?
Replies: 56
Views: 4135

Re: Refrigerator: repair or replace?

pizzy wrote: Sun Nov 14, 2021 1:27 pm
D. C. Pline wrote: Sun Nov 14, 2021 1:24 pm 16.5 years old
Replace
Yeah, I would as well. I wonder what kind of energy usage efficiencies jump one would see buying a new fridge 16.5 years later.