Search found 74 matches

by notsobright
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusing Correlation
Replies: 5
Views: 440

Re: Confusing Correlation

thanks everyone for pointing out how mistaken I was. I made an edit to my OP
by notsobright
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusing Correlation
Replies: 5
Views: 440

Confusing Correlation

Hello just something I notice a lot reading through all the threads at this crazy time People often confuse correlations of -1 vs 0 especially now with our bond allocations also falling when 2 assets are completely uncorrelated they move together as well as oppositely about the same this is a correl...
by notsobright
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: log in problems - Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 522

Re: log in problems - Vanguard

same here, mobile app is working though. But the mobile app interface is so absolutely terribe
by notsobright
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 8694

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

25-35 was age in bonds - 10

at 36 i won the game and have been 50/50 since

I'm 40 now
by notsobright
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reality Check - Don't assume prices will go up
Replies: 44
Views: 3977

Reality Check - Don't assume prices will go up

Remember, that the price of the market as it stands at any moment is a reflection of everything we know in the past and all things we assume about the future. People are making decisions with the assumption that things will ABSOLUTELY recover, but this is not an absolute. I'll say this one more time...
by notsobright
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DCA vs LS for Life Changing Windfall?
Replies: 25
Views: 1514

Re: DCA vs LS for Life Changing Windfall?

Hi, Same situation as you. late 30's, family of 5, Massive Massive windfall I'll keep it short and sweet You've won the game, more money does not give you anymore happiness at this point. Preserve. 50/50 (Stocks go up you're happy, stocks go down, you're still happy) start off 20/80 and DCA towards ...
by notsobright
Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intl Bonds, Large Taxable Account
Replies: 21
Views: 997

Re: Intl Bonds, Large Taxable Account

I believe having all my bonds from one issuer, the U.S. government, is a risk. I would prefer 30% foreign as well but have never gotten past the tax hurdle. U.S. Treasuries (Swensen eg) are as far as I’ve gotten beyond munis, and my current evaluation is whether I could justify the state taxation. ...
by notsobright
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intl Bonds, Large Taxable Account
Replies: 21
Views: 997

Intl Bonds, Large Taxable Account

Was on Vanguard and noticed that they said I should consider getting International Bonds. I used portfolio visualizer's website and looked up the historical correlation between US Bonds and Int Bonds and found it indeed is nicely diversified (.6 to .75 correlation). Was a few clicks away from going ...
by notsobright
Mon May 20, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 20173

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

TheDDC wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 1:40 pm
I'd stick with the public school.

BTW are you high net worth, ultra high net worth, or ultra super high net worth?

-TheDDC
~10M.. so between high and ultra... very?
by notsobright
Sat May 18, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 20173

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 12:01 pm
OP, I could probably have found it on your links, but what % of kids board at the private? FWIW, that’s not something we would have considered doing.
1400 students from k-12, 100 students in the UPPER level that board. I couldn't find out the exact number of upper level students though.
by notsobright
Sat May 18, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 20173

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

Bacchus01 wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 11:56 am

Top of their class in 1st and 3rs grade?

That’s not even a thing.
They have the highest test scores in their respective grades ? Not sure how else to put it.
by notsobright
Sat May 18, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 20173

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

Lots of people asking what our reservations are. The schools have recently been rezoned, going from 10% free lunch to 50% free lunch. As you can imagine, this has a direct correlation with the school's test scores. We also spent a day observing the kids and noticed some disruptive children with beha...
by notsobright
Sat May 18, 2019 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 20173

Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public

Hello, my kids will be going into 4th 2nd and K this coming school year. The 2 oldest are doing well but my DW and I have growing reservations about the nearby public school system. Currently the elementary /middle / and high schools are all “B” rated schools (6/10 great school rankings). We have th...
by notsobright
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ready to FIRE (But Vultures Be Circling)
Replies: 80
Views: 11417

Re: Ready to FIRE (But Vultures Be Circling)

Hi. I'm am/was in the same situation as you Under 40, 8 digit business sale. Married with kids. I manage everything myself through Vanguard with a mix of Total Market, Total International, and Intermediate Term Municipal Bonds Started off with a conservative 70/30 (bonds/stocks).. and over the cours...
by notsobright
Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What time do you start your day?
Replies: 69
Views: 3852

Re: What time do you start your day?

SW Engineer.

Up @ 8:30 home @ 6
by notsobright
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Step by step guide to life
Replies: 5
Views: 1311

Re: Step by step guide to life

Wiggums wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:34 am
Do you have a question?
Gah, wrong forum. Meant to post in General
by notsobright
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Step by step guide to life
Replies: 5
Views: 1311

Step by step guide to life

1. Be born 2. Learn to do something to make money 3. Make money a start investing / saving for retirement 4. Gauge and adjust risk tolerance as markets go up and go down 5. Extrapolate date of retirement given current income trajectory and risk adjusted expected rate of return on investments 6. If h...
by notsobright
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for early retirement vs late retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 804

Asset allocation for early retirement vs late retirement

Could someone point me in the direction of some literature on how typically bogleheads might adjust (If at all) asset allocations post retirement? Would also be very helpful if there could be some discussion on if there are differences between early retirement vs normal retirement. Should there a st...
by notsobright
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Most NON obvious thing for new investors
Replies: 58
Views: 8298

Most NON obvious thing for new investors

So after 10+ years of lurking and managing my own finances, I am still always a bit shocked at how non obvious it is when looking at returns or graphs of ones bond allocation in a portfolio that it does not include dividends. I was confused for the longest time thinking that bond returns seemed to a...
by notsobright
Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MMORPG games
Replies: 63
Views: 6217

Re: MMORPG games

Pre-Internet BBS's. Tradewars, LORD, Muds, Doom II Then RTS wc2, wc3, sc, sc2 Then WoW 40 main raids -> 20 main raids quit after about 5 years Recently I played a lot of overwatch, but put that to rest about a year ago. Now I make video games and these days I either watch or try to play anything tha...
by notsobright
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:35 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: My Christmas Present To You
Replies: 108
Views: 13010

Re: My Christmas Present To You

Wow I had no idea. Thanks Taylor, for a lifetime of service.

Merry Christmas
by notsobright
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your best investment in 2018?
Replies: 127
Views: 8442

Re: What was your best investment in 2018?

Portfolio wise:
Vanguard Intermediate tax-exempt Muni fund

Life Wise:
Landscape lighting
Shure SM7B microphone
Ping pong table
Lots of board games to play with the kids
Small travel sized nylon string guitar
by notsobright
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Extravagant Thing You Do
Replies: 411
Views: 61823

What NON frugal thing did you do today?

[Thread merged into here, see below (next page) --admin LadyGeek]

Inspired by the other mega frugal thread :)

What NON frugal thing did you do today?


Guess i'll start:
payed an extra $25 in shipping on a $20 item to get here in time for Christmas
by notsobright
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any retired boglehead doctors out there?
Replies: 78
Views: 12274

Re: Any retired boglehead doctors out there?

looking to find out what retirement looks like for retired/retiring doctors today. Currently 53 and looking at options for the immediate and distant future. Locum tenen stories, early retirement, part time, consulting. Any stories appreciated. At 34 I sold my critical care staffing business and too...
by notsobright
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 6111

Re: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

Thanks for the input everyone.

Basically the answer I got was a big Nope,

Bitcoin is a commodity and Boglehead investing does not directly include commodities.
by notsobright
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 6111

Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

With bitcoin / cryptocurrencies reaching a 65B market cap and the World Market cap being 210 Trillion, Would it be considered "Wise" / "Bogleheaded" to go ahead and allocate .3% of ones portfolio to crypto since they are not represented in the total market index? No more no less. This isn't some arb...
by notsobright
Mon Dec 12, 2016 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The risk tolerance, market timing, Catch-22
Replies: 1
Views: 369

The risk tolerance, market timing, Catch-22

One does not know their risk tolerance until the market swings, but should not re-adjust their holdings to match what their perceived risk tolerance is because that is essentially the same as market timing. Feels like you can sort of mentally "cheat" being a market timer by simply telling yourself t...
by notsobright
Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feeling discouraged
Replies: 60
Views: 8205

Re: Feeling discouraged

your post reminds me of exactly the sentiment I'm referring to with this old post of mine.

viewtopic.php?t=187814
by notsobright
Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 178
Views: 30507

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

twice as much bonds as equities

twice as much US as INTL
by notsobright
Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accounting or Computer Science
Replies: 67
Views: 10642

Re: Accounting or Computer Science

Program a game of tetris.

If you enjoyed the process of figuring out how, and then actually doing it, then voila, problem solved.
by notsobright
Sun May 22, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we believe in the market?
Replies: 59
Views: 7625

Why do we believe in the market?

why are we all so confident that the market will do us right over the long term? What if long term is not on the time span of decades, but of centuries.. What if the next 100 years is a bear market which is then followed by 200 years of bull. In the end, aren't we all just gambling since we don't kn...
by notsobright
Fri Apr 29, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me name this AA
Replies: 5
Views: 720

Help me name this AA

Found a really helpful very well done website that lets you play with various portfolios and the charts actually show total returns from re-invested dividends! https://hellomoney.co/ So I wanted a simple 3 fund AA of 40/60 that was easy to balance but the asset allocation percentages were never nice...
by notsobright
Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3.5M taxable bonds
Replies: 39
Views: 5085

Re: 3.5M taxable bonds

Hi notsobright, I wanted to pass on to you that Vanguard's website does have a risk questionnaire that may assist and provide recommendations regarding asset allocation. In addition, you could always contact a Vanguard representative to get additional support. Asset allocation is the most important...
by notsobright
Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do bond funds REALLY work?
Replies: 16
Views: 2782

How do bond funds REALLY work?

It appears that a lot of people are somewhat hesitant to purchase some bond asset classes since they are suppose to go down as the US government raises interest rates, which a lot of people assume will be in the near future. So my question is this, how do bond funds actually work? If everyone assume...
by notsobright
Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3.5M taxable bonds
Replies: 39
Views: 5085

Re: 3.5M taxable bonds

Without knowing what your goals are, or your time horizon, it's hard to define "safe". Do yourself a favor and read "Deep Risk" - http://amzn.to/1VAFRiE You'll see that stocks can be safer than bonds over long time horizons. I'm in my mid thirties, and I love my job, so I think I can assume that my...
by notsobright
Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3.5M taxable bonds
Replies: 39
Views: 5085

Re: 3.5M taxable bonds

I think diversity will in fact help me sleep better at night.

When in doubt, go 50/50!!

So, 50/50 between intermediate tax exempt and total bond market.
by notsobright
Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3.5M taxable bonds
Replies: 39
Views: 5085

3.5M taxable bonds

Hello! Some context: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=187454 Essentially, i have 3.5M that i need to allocate in my taxable account towards "safe" investments. I'm in the 28% tax bracket, in Maryland. **Edit (By safe, I mean NOT equities) Currently I have all 3.5M in VWIUX (Inter...
by notsobright
Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 19 year old looking for guidance and advice
Replies: 28
Views: 2815

Re: 19 year old looking for guidance and advice

My advice is to invest in yourself. Get whatever you need to study and grow effectively. Once you're mostly satisfied with your career path, then start thinking about investing in other places.
by notsobright
Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier?
Replies: 23
Views: 5002

Re: Efficient frontier?

I think it helps to see a graph. http://www.spreadsheetml.com/finance/images/EfficientFrontier.png Efficient frontier usually compares 2 investments going from 0% to 100%. It plots average return vs volatility at all the various asset allocation mixes 0/100 , 10/90, 50/50...90/10... 100/0 Then theor...
by notsobright
Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's all about saving, not investing really.
Replies: 84
Views: 10594

Re: It's all about saving, not investing really.

So I've come to the conclusion that investing money properly is only a small part of the equation to early retirement. I read so many posts by people wanting to retire early so they go 70%->100% on equities thinking that's the major component to building a nest egg. Correct me if I'm wrong, but eve...
by notsobright
Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's all about saving, not investing really.
Replies: 84
Views: 10594

Re: It's all about saving, not investing really.

Yes, to a point. But if you invest in tech stocks "all in" in 2000 and then panic sell in 2002, then you start flipping houses in 2006 and declark BK in 2010, no amount of savings will save you. The essence of the Boglehead philosophy is a moderate risk plan that one can keep on course, for many de...
by notsobright
Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's all about saving, not investing really.
Replies: 84
Views: 10594

It's all about saving, not investing really.

So I've come to the conclusion that investing money properly is only a small part of the equation to early retirement. I read so many posts by people wanting to retire early so they go 70%->100% on equities thinking that's the major component to building a nest egg. Correct me if I'm wrong, but even...
by notsobright
Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What I did with a 5M windfall
Replies: 4
Views: 1949

What I did with a 5M windfall

Hello, This is a followup to my original thread here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=186646 some background info: 36Male, 3 kids, 28% tax bracket 5M to invest in taxable account (Tax-advantaged accounts are full) Allocation: 70% bonds, 30% equity $3.5M in Intermediate tax-exempt bon...
by notsobright
Tue Mar 22, 2016 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused by Tax loss Harvesting (TLH)
Replies: 9
Views: 950

Confused by Tax loss Harvesting (TLH)

Ok so.. I've done quite a bit of reading trying to understand how TLH actually works, can someone help me? I apologize in advance for my naivete in the matter :) example I have $1M invested in VTI Next day VTI Drops $500k and is worth only $500k I exchange VTI for VWO and harvest 500k worth of losse...
by notsobright
Fri Mar 11, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fee-only vs Fee-Based , Outright lieing?
Replies: 18
Views: 2852

Fee-only vs Fee-Based , Outright lieing?

*Edit Appears that what I need to be looking for is hourly fee financial planners Not Fee-Only. Sorry for the confusion ********************** Hi. I've started researching fee-only financial planners and have come across some groups who advertise as Fee-Only but appear to actually be fee-based? For ...
by notsobright
Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 5M Windfall, all in VTMFX? [Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund]
Replies: 40
Views: 13744

Re: 5M Windfall, all in VTMFX?

To answer some questions:

-5M is after all capital gains, state and federal taxes for maryland.

-married with 3 kids

-I intend to continue working for atleast 15 more years. ( ~170k/yr salary)

Sounds like I need to find me a really good fee based financial planner :)
by notsobright
Fri Mar 11, 2016 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 5M Windfall, all in VTMFX? [Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund]
Replies: 40
Views: 13744

Re: 5M Windfall, all in VTMFX?

1. I live in maryland 2. Doesn't tax loss harvesting cap out at only 3k? I don't think I would bother myself moving around assets to try to capture an extra 3k per year given my total future net worth. Not really. Two things come to mind immediately: 1. What state do you live in? 2. You will probabl...
by notsobright
Fri Mar 11, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 5M Windfall, all in VTMFX? [Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund]
Replies: 40
Views: 13744

5M Windfall, all in VTMFX? [Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund]

Hi. I'm going to be getting a 5M windfall after taxes from the sale of my company. All of my tax deferred accounts are maxed and so I intend on putting the entire 5M lump sum into a taxable account. If I intend on maintaining a 50/50 asset allocation for the rest of my life, is it prudent for me to ...
by notsobright
Sun Apr 26, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are betterment fees in addition to fund fees?
Replies: 5
Views: 1488

Re: Are betterment fees in addition to fund fees?

That's what I thought. But the reason I ask is because of this (Taken from their website) Your money is invested in a fully diversified index-fund portfolio made up of 12 exchange traded funds or ETFs. Each of these ETFs has an expense ratio (they range from .09%-.17% depending on your allocation - ...
by notsobright
Sun Apr 26, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are betterment fees in addition to fund fees?
Replies: 5
Views: 1488

Are betterment fees in addition to fund fees?

When using betterment, or any robo advisor, do the fees they charge exist in addition to the fees already part of the funds they use? For instance, VTI has an expense ratio of .05% By using betterment, are you in effect compounding expenses? You pay betterment .15% for returns on an investment which...