Search found 842 matches

by jdilla1107
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?
Replies: 15
Views: 1654

Re: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?

A slow down in the economy would mean less demand for power/energy.
by jdilla1107
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 1401K Error or did I over contribute
Replies: 4
Views: 238

Re: H&R Block 1401K Error or did I over contribute

I saw this at one point too. However, the program let me enter 19,000. Then after an update a few weeks ago, the number was corrected in the text to 19,000. So, i believe the error was only limited to what was written in the instructions. (It's also currently fixed in my version, I belive)
by jdilla1107
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Curious if others— who buy savings bonds— have reconsidered between ee and i-bonds lately. The case between them is so different that I think it's hard to compare them objectively. Why not do some of both for diversification? I started buying EE bonds 10 years ago when "everyone knew that interest ...
by jdilla1107
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

If high inflation presents itself in the first 5-7 years, long term bonds will be crushed. For EE bonds you would just cash them in early, resulting in an opportunity cost loss of like 1% a year. (A small real loss and no nominal loss) My opportunity cost would be more like 6%, as I'd buy BAC-L/WFC...
by jdilla1107
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

If high inflation presents itself in the first 5-7 years, long term bonds will be crushed. For EE bonds you would just cash them in early, resulting in an opportunity cost loss of like 1% a year. (A small real loss and no nominal loss) My opportunity cost would be more like 6%, as I'd buy BAC-L/WFC...
by jdilla1107
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Other legitimate issues: maximum purchase ($10K doesn't move the needle), timing maturity (do I need/want the income then?). ... it is extremely hard to beat EE Bonds, provided you can be sure you do not need to touch those funds for that duration. How can anyone be sure of that? I don't want to ma...
by jdilla1107
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

You are not alone. I don't understand the case for EE bonds either. (Or their popularity in this forum). If you do not like long term treasuries, then you would not like EE bonds. If you do like long term treasuries, then EE bonds are better in (almost) every way. (except liquidity) Note that if yo...
by jdilla1107
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

They assume significant inflation risk that cannot be waved away because of today's estimate of inflation. Try to come up with an example that would result in large real losses with EE bonds. Since you can cash them in at any time for their face value, you always have the option of exiting early. -...
by jdilla1107
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7387

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

The myth - for clarification of this discussion - is that paper losses are not also REAL losses. I have no idea what a real loss means. We are now just making up words to try and twist around some idea. I propose that there is no one on this thread who thinks that a decrease in market valuation mea...
by jdilla1107
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I have been maxing my EE bond purchases for the last 10 years and advocating for them along the way. I wrote down that I should stop buying them 2 years ago, but haven't been able to stop due to how attractive they now look. - Much higher yield than a 20 year treasury (3.53% vs 1.60%) - Free put opt...
by jdilla1107
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of corporate stock buybacks??
Replies: 75
Views: 4474

Re: End of corporate stock buybacks??

Huh? I don't see the logic here. How are stock buybacks bad? How are they particularly favorable to execs, at the expense of others? How are buybacks different in these regards than, say, dividends? It’s all about appearances and public perception. Dividends - good. Buybacks - bad. Perception. I ag...
by jdilla1107
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7387

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

By my way of thinking, the very use of the phrase ' only a paper loss' implies that it is less real than a realized loss. "Real" isn't a helpful word to use. A paper loss is better than a realized loss for the following reasons: - The holder of a paper loss has not been forced into liquidation resu...
by jdilla1107
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7387

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

The myth - for clarification of this discussion - is that paper losses are not also REAL losses. I have no idea what a real loss means. We are now just making up words to try and twist around some idea. I propose that there is no one on this thread who thinks that a decrease in market valuation mea...
by jdilla1107
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7387

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

For all the posters who enjoy trying to twist the definitions of words: Does inflation result in a loss of money? (Please don't actually answer this question, I intend it to be illustrative.) The problem with this entire discussion is that the precise words matter. For example, the reason that the t...
by jdilla1107
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7387

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

Years ago I inherited a file folder full of stock certificates. They were worthless when I inherited them and they are worthless now. Though nothing was ever sold or realized, the losses are real. Period. Excellent example. I've used one very similar myself in trying to dispel the myth of 'paper lo...
by jdilla1107
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BIV fell 2.4% today. Why?
Replies: 9
Views: 859

Re: BIV fell 2.4% today. Why?

It's an ETF. When the going gets rough, ETF prices get flaky. This happens whenever there are sharp moves in the market and is one reason why I am willing to pay a few basis points more to be in a mutual fund. This is not the reason at all. Intermediate bonds were just down today. Also, mutual fund...
by jdilla1107
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BIV fell 2.4% today. Why?
Replies: 9
Views: 859

Re: BIV fell 2.4% today. Why?

It's an ETF. When the going gets rough, ETF prices get flaky. This happens whenever there are sharp moves in the market and is one reason why I am willing to pay a few basis points more to be in a mutual fund. This is not the reason at all. Intermediate bonds were just down today. Also, mutual fund...
by jdilla1107
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7387

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

Even if you're 100% certain you will recover your losses, you have technically lost money. Technically, you have not lost money. No money has left the account. It's more correct to say that the market valuation has decreased. I've grown to the point where I don't care what the daily market valuatio...
by jdilla1107
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why all these timing threads?
Replies: 67
Views: 3524

Re: Why all these timing threads?

They didn't have a plan they believed in. Now they run around full of emotion convincing themselves they can see the future. I invest in equities for the gains than come from 30-40 years of earnings growth. This is a blip to shake out the weak ones. If it goes to 50%, it will shake out more weak one...
by jdilla1107
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funny- the difference of 30 days
Replies: 6
Views: 1037

Re: Funny- the difference of 30 days

I am somewhat surprised by the reactions on these forums. So many posters that are usually all about "stay the course" seem to have gone from placid to panic in just a few days. We haven't even hit a 30% drop from the all time high of the S&P500 yet. It's different posters. The stay-the-course peop...
by jdilla1107
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying the dip: What will you (have you) pick(ed) up?
Replies: 32
Views: 2496

Re: Buying the dip: What will you (have you) pick(ed) up?

You should do whatever your plan said to do 6 months ago. Successful investing is not emotional or spontaneous.
by jdilla1107
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29389

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

Completely agree with the title. However, what is the advice for people who may have a pile of cash this is intended for emergencies but they refuse to call it an emergency fund? Can they invest that now? Semantics but the most senior person on here just stated in another thread that he doesn’t hav...
by jdilla1107
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20325

Re: Federal Reserve just cuts rates to zero. Do you think the worst is over?

Folks, If the interest rate goes down to negative, does that mean we have deflation? If that is true, won't CASH be earning a good return? KlangFool Deflation really has nothing to do with interest rates. Deflation means that prices in the economy and demand for products are decreasing. You can hav...
by jdilla1107
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29389

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

Completely agree with the title. However, what is the advice for people who may have a pile of cash this is intended for emergencies but they refuse to call it an emergency fund? Can they invest that now? Semantics but the most senior person on here just stated in another thread that he doesn’t hav...
by jdilla1107
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Windfall investment
Replies: 4
Views: 415

Re: Windfall investment

I would repost your question here: (in Personal Investments)

viewforum.php?f=1

following these guidelines:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212

Essentially, you need to provide a lot more information to get a recomendation.
by jdilla1107
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Windfall investment
Replies: 4
Views: 415

Re: Windfall investment

This is a big question with not a lot of detail. I would recommend to start reading the wiki here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page To answer part of your question, 10 years is a little on the short side for an aggressive equity portfolio. I would do something very balanced with bonds if I ...
by jdilla1107
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14303

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

A frequent refrain here is, “I have 20-30 years”. So I don’t care. Well, you just lost two of those years. Market is more or less back to start of 2018. You now have 18-28 years. Oh, wait, 2018 was a down year too.So subtract another year. This isn't how it works at all. Go look at an annual return...
by jdilla1107
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5672

Re: Why are bonds falling?

Look at this page, which shows historical treasury yields: (interest rates) https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield Do you see that interest rates have been both falling and rising at various times over the last 2 weeks? The bond marke...
by jdilla1107
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14303

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

I'm with you. My portfolio is down 500k+ and I could not care any less. Went up 180k today and it meant nothing to me. No emotion whatsoever. My perspective is for 20-30 years. What difference does it make if we go: down, down, up, up, up, down, down, up or up, down, up, up, up, down, up, up, down T...
by jdilla1107
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Qualified Dividends and Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 8
Views: 289

Re: Qualified Dividends and Tax Loss Harvesting

I'm not following what the problem is. Can't you just make sure you hold the new fund for 60 days? From Fidelity: All of the following requirements must be met: The fund must have held the security unhedged for at least 61 days out of the 121-day period that began 60 days before the security’s ex-d...
by jdilla1107
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Qualified Dividends and Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 8
Views: 289

Re: Qualified Dividends and Tax Loss Harvesting

I'm not following what the problem is. Can't you just make sure you hold the new fund for 60 days?
by jdilla1107
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not exchange all total bond for total market today?
Replies: 35
Views: 2712

Re: Why not exchange all total bond for total market today?

We are back to May of 2019 prices. In May of 2019 everyone here was saying how overvalued the market was. Did you think this in May of 2019?
by jdilla1107
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Form of market timing?
Replies: 8
Views: 369

Re: Form of market timing?

The best approach is to develop a plan and then follow it with no emotion whatsoever. Good luck with that. Most investors aren't like Data , able to turn off their emotions like a switch. No emotion and time in the market is the ONLY edge that an individual investor has. I have worked in trading fo...
by jdilla1107
Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: using short-term losses to offset long-term gains?
Replies: 3
Views: 274

Re: using short-term losses to offset long-term gains?

I would just keep the losses and take $3k a year income tax deduction. If you really need to take gains at a future date, then do that. But, there is no reason to realize gains just to offset losses. (The losses can be kept into the future.)
by jdilla1107
Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Form of market timing?
Replies: 8
Views: 369

Re: Form of market timing?

There are countless mental tricks similar to this to tell yourself. The best approach is to develop a plan and then follow it with no emotion whatsoever. Your approach seems to involve emotion, causing me not to like it. (Even if the emotion seems to be in the "right direction") My equity portfolio ...
by jdilla1107
Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people still try to time the market?
Replies: 72
Views: 5165

Re: Why do people still try to time the market?

What is your prediction going forward from here? My prediction is that the coronavirus "situation" will calm down. The effects on the stock market will then wither away. I think this is actionable so have changed my allocation from 50/50 to 60/40. I may not have made this change if it could not hav...
by jdilla1107
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people still try to time the market?
Replies: 72
Views: 5165

Re: Why do people still try to time the market?

wen ttiming works - hghly lucrative. sometimes it is predictable (coronavirus spread) Everything is predictable, especially in retrospect. What is your prediction going forward from here? If you perfectly timed this particular drop, you simply are even with someone who bought in Oct 2019. That does...
by jdilla1107
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article by the founder of Intuit and Personal Capital: Bitcoin is a scam
Replies: 23
Views: 2167

Re: Article by the founder of Intuit and Personal Capital: Bitcoin is a scam

Who is the market for buying Bitcoin? As far as I can tell it's just people who think they'll find another sucker willing to pay more for it. For every legitimate use it's suggested for, there's already a more effective, widely used, less risky alternative... and even the illegitimate uses seems li...
by jdilla1107
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covered Calls Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1220

Re: Covered Calls Portfolio

This has all of the downside of a stock position with none of the upside. If stocks go down, she takes a loss. If stocks go up, she misses the gain. (This trade off is offset by a payment.) I think all of these option positions are just dumb ways to over complicate things; which is exactly what advi...
by jdilla1107
Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Tax Credit ELI5?
Replies: 11
Views: 1026

Re: Foreign Tax Credit ELI5?

Your Fidelity 1099 will state how much foreign tax you paid through funds that you held. You put this number into tax software and you get a credit for that amount.
by jdilla1107
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Synthetic Roth via leverage?
Replies: 10
Views: 819

Re: Synthetic Roth via leverage?

Like many academic cases that involve leverage, this ignores two important points:

- The cost of leverage. (None with roth)
- Margin calls. (None with roth)
by jdilla1107
Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small Company 401k - Extremely High Fees
Replies: 6
Views: 568

Re: Small Company 401k - Extremely High Fees

One possible trick is to take a 401k loan and invest the money in taxable to avoid the fees. This allows you to reserve the space, but not pay the fees. You need to research the details of the plan though.
by jdilla1107
Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF to Hold for 50 Years
Replies: 118
Views: 10417

Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

The people that say "why would you need to think about a multi-decade hold period?", are clearly investing out of a tax shielded account. For taxable accounts where 20-30 years of capital gains is likely, this is a very valid question. I haven't been investing very long (12 years) and already have p...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 7798

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

There seem to be a lot of folks on this thread who think rates aren't going up any time soon. For those that feel that way, are you allocating to long bonds? If not, why not? 20% of Vanguard Total Bond Market is allocated to long term bonds. So, a large number of forum members are invested in long ...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 7798

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

My answer is that "it doesn't matter to my own plan". Trying to take positions based on guesses to macroeconomic questions is a fool's errand, in my opinion. For a passive investor, I think that makes sense. Trying to predict macro economic events is terrible for even an active investor. Successful...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 7798

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

My answer is that "it doesn't matter to my own plan". Trying to take positions based on guesses to macroeconomic questions is a fool's errand, in my opinion.
by jdilla1107
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Engineers - What are you making? ($$$)
Replies: 357
Views: 43493

Re: Engineers - What are you making? ($$$)

I have hired 100s of software engineers over my career. The ones who report "making 600k+" last year, usually break down something like this: - Salary of $180-220k - Exercised stock options last year from X years of stock appreciation for $400k It's a lot like CEOs "who made $30M last year" or sales...
by jdilla1107
Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets closed, but prices change
Replies: 7
Views: 541

Re: Markets closed, but prices change

The simple answer is that the supply/demand changes between closing and opening. But, also realize that stocks (and derivatives) are actually trading 24/7 on generally lower liquidity. Money never sleeps. Here is some info on after hours nasadq trading https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/quotes/e...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to choose a strike price on a protective put?
Replies: 5
Views: 407

Re: How to choose a strike price on a protective put?

Note that doing this violates many corporate employment agreements and stock plans. Especially if your finance is any sort of executive.
by jdilla1107
Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman -SCV- 1930-2019 Evidence - Patience Leads to Better Returns
Replies: 85
Views: 5997

Re: Paul Merriman -SCV- 1930-2019 Evidence - Patience Leads to Better Returns

Paul Merriman discusses asset class performance from 1930s to 2019 in his latest Sound Investing Podcast. Below are the link and accompanying material. Bogleheads: Mr. Merriman is very knowledgeable and very likeable. However, his portfolio recommendations are based almost entirely on " past perfor...