Search found 788 matches

by Day9
Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12035
Views: 2047450

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Long term forecasts are just the mean of a wide distribution of potential returns. One should consider his need, ability, and willingness to take risk. I do not know how judge your need to take risk without an estimate of long term future returns. Similarly to how you can't judge ability or willingn...
by Day9
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Beating” the market with i bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1521

Re: “Beating” the market with i bonds

Yes I believe everyone can improve their portfolios by buying the 0.5% real I-Bonds right now and adjusting the rest of their bond portfolio such that it retains the same credit & duration risk levels. For example, you can buy $10k of these attractive I-Bonds, and increase the duration of the rest o...
by Day9
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 239
Views: 13491

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Just look at Jack's passive inventions for this topic, VUG/VIGAX (Vanguard Growth Index Fund) and VTV (Vanguard Value Index Fund). They are arguably the oldest available factor index funds. The history of those two funds largely bear out the long-term equal returns argument. Rick Ferri in fact aske...
by Day9
Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 239
Views: 13491

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

My goodness, I really don't blame Larry for leaving this forum. He's already demonstrated way more patience than the average person would, and yet people still come back with knuckle headed stubbornness. ... Earlier in this thread I praised the TSM crowd for their civility and restraint. Trust me, ...
by Day9
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 252
Views: 25494

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

KyleAAA wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:57 pm
Are us tilters rich yet? A good 10 years of out-performance would be great.
Outperformance may come on the way down, if SV goes down less than Large Growth, so in that case we would not be rich, just less poor :D
by Day9
Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should I rebalance?
Replies: 21
Views: 2202

Re: When should I rebalance?

Twice a year. Once in January after you max out your Roth IRA for the year, and again around July 4 or so. Always rebalance with new contributions, adding new money to the investment that is underweight.
by Day9
Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 102
Views: 7176

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

According to immediate annuities dot com, a 40-year old man can buy a 4.4% yearly payout SPIA today. A 65-year old man can get 6.5%. I do not know if this website has been updated in the last few months where long term rates have plummeted. But if all these experts, monte carlo simulations, and high...
by Day9
Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking the role of bonds in AA
Replies: 28
Views: 3320

Re: Rethinking the role of bonds in AA

Can anyone point to an actively managed bond fund with a high ER such that its SEC yield is negative, and there is a Vanguard Bond Fund with similar duration & credit risk levels, except the Vanguard fund has a positive SEC yield? I don't think yields are low enough for that situation to arrive yet,...
by Day9
Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 239
Views: 13491

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Thank you very much Larry for that helpful post. We learn a lot from you.

And thank you to the 3-fund Bogleheads for their civility. They could be spiking the football much harder than they have been and I appreciate their restraint.
by Day9
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 239
Views: 13491

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

At the final conclusion of the paper the 2 most likely scenarios they give for Value coming back are (1) If Financial stocks come back or (2) if there is a tech crash similar to 2000. They claim both scenarios are unlikely. I agree they are unlikely and that is part of the reason valuations are the ...
by Day9
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Multi-generational trust
Replies: 26
Views: 1647

Re: Multi-generational trust

What are the goals of the trust? The fund will stop distributing money for years after a market crash, which may be precisely the time they might need it (e.g. they lost their job in the recession) The goals are 1 and 2 above. If the trust cannot "afford" to make a distribution, well that's unfortu...
by Day9
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Multi-generational trust
Replies: 26
Views: 1647

Re: Multi-generational trust

What are the goals of the trust? The fund will stop distributing money for years after a market crash, which may be precisely the time they might need it (e.g. they lost their job in the recession)
by Day9
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking the role of bonds in AA
Replies: 28
Views: 3320

Re: Rethinking the role of bonds in AA

A lot of Bogleheads criticized gold and commodities for producing literally 0 real return. Now bonds have 0 and sometimes negative real return. Bogle called an allocation to bonds an "anchor to windward". Now they are just an "anchor". I still believe bonds are the best diversifier to stocks.
by Day9
Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 54
Views: 11982

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

Yabba Dabba Don't try to time the bond market
by Day9
Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Vanguards momentum fund (VFMO)?
Replies: 6
Views: 1131

Re: Thoughts on Vanguards momentum fund (VFMO)?

Any thoughts on using this in a SCV tilted portfolio to get momentum target to zero? Seems like this could be better than MTUM for its size loading. IJS iShares S&P 600 Value ETF, and VBR Vanguard Small Cap Value both appear to have nearly 0 loading on momentum already. Using fama french research f...
by Day9
Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factors" and language misuse
Replies: 71
Views: 3618

Re: "Factors" and language misuse

Can't see the point of SCB & LCV in the Merriman plan... just go megacap US, megacap foreign, SCV US, SCV foreign,... I agree. That was the topic of this legendary thread from 2009 "Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4". Though that thread suggests international large value and international small...
by Day9
Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig in Today's WSJ Discusses Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 54
Views: 6521

Re: Jason Zweig in Today's WSJ Discusses Target Retirement Funds

The fact that analysts were surprised at how target date fund investors did not panic sell is a good sign because it means more Americans will have a successful retirement, which we all wish for. On the other hand, for the aggressive folk who have an extremely high stock allocation and/or tilt deepl...
by Day9
Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 115
Views: 10316

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Is the yield curve inversion story more about the discrepancy of US rates vs rest of the world, than recession fears? That is my gut feeling. I was just thinking the same thing. Maybe the fact that the 2 year yield is greater than the 10 year yield indicates that the market predicts some point betw...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Why Broad, Cap-weighted Index Funds Can't Move Markets
Replies: 30
Views: 1945

Re: Chart: Why Cap-weighted Index Funds Can't Move Markets

... • The holdings of active managers, in aggregate, must be in proportion to market-cap weights. ... ...it's hard to understand why William Sharpe's "equivalency principle" between broad market index investors and active managers in aggregate is not more widely accepted. It must be due to that fam...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now still a good time to buy VTSAX?
Replies: 45
Views: 3431

Re: Is now still a good time to buy VTSAX?

You’re saying you know you shouldn’t time the market but are asking whether you should do just that? :confused I'm saying that it's easier said than done to ignore all of the noise. As for market conditions, I'm talking about a decade plus bull market and a P/E ratio that is fairly high. Do you sto...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now still a good time to buy VTSAX?
Replies: 45
Views: 3431

Re: Is now still a good time to buy VTSAX?

You’re saying you know you shouldn’t time the market but are asking whether you should do just that? :confused I'm saying that it's easier said than done to ignore all of the noise. As for market conditions, I'm talking about a decade plus bull market and a P/E ratio that is fairly high. Do you sto...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Again, citing Larry to prove your argument is circular logic. It's circular when someone says "Larry believes in the value premium. To back it up, Larry says the value premium exists". But it is not circular when we say "Larry believes in the value premium. To back up his own belief he put out the ...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: Why Broad, Cap-weighted Index Funds Can't Move Markets
Replies: 30
Views: 1945

Re: Chart: Why Cap-weighted Index Funds Can't Move Markets

... • The holdings of active managers, in aggregate, must be in proportion to market-cap weights. ... ...it's hard to understand why William Sharpe's "equivalency principle" between broad market index investors and active managers in aggregate is not more widely accepted. It must be due to that fam...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Reading the abstracts has been fascinating. However, the more I read about the value premium, the more I'm beginning to wonder if it is indeed able to be arbitraged away now that it's been "outed". There’s an easy way to be completely sure it has not been arbitraged away. Want to guess what that is...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Young people with good earnings and still want to work do 100 equities
Replies: 44
Views: 4498

Re: Young people with good earnings and still want to work do 100 equities

90/10 gets you in the habit of rebalancing, has psychological benefits, and will do much better than 100/0 under huge crashes (like 90% market crash), and only has a little less expected return. It won't take long for your portfolio's daily fluctuations to be higher than your daily earnings. And wit...
by Day9
Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Factorheads, Please turn to Chapter 8 of Larry's Factor book "Does Publication Reduce the Size of Premiums?" "...while premiums do not disappear, they do experience a decay in magnitude of about one-third... Thus you should not automatically assume that future premiums will be as large as the histor...
by Day9
Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FIRE Drawdown Plan
Replies: 57
Views: 4385

Re: FIRE Drawdown Plan

Like the above poster said, you are leaving out too much information for us to reasonably respond. Please see this guideline post for how to format your posts and edit yours to match it: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212
by Day9
Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does Vanguard call my 30-year treasury a "note"?
Replies: 5
Views: 795

Why does Vanguard call my 30-year treasury a "note"?

This is just a minor curiosity but I am wondering why my 30 year Treasury is called a "Note" in my Vanguard account, when my others are called "Bond". I thought there are 30-year treasury bonds, 10-year Treasury notes, and 1-year Treasury bills. When I search for the CUSIP number every other result ...
by Day9
Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on VIG
Replies: 7
Views: 521

Re: Thoughts on VIG

According to portfolio visualizer AQR factor regression, VIG has higher loading of the Quality factor than Vanguard Quality Factor ETF! And with half the expense ratio. Though the Quality Factor ETF is quite new and that might be the reason we see this. https://i.imgur.com/QfmFKrw.png VIG is a low c...
by Day9
Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasonable and Rational Information on Precious Metals
Replies: 30
Views: 1495

Re: Reasonable and Rational Information on Precious Metals

sophie1 wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:25 am
..."Golden Butterfly" (20% gold)... The other options include the Pinwheel (10%), Desert (10%), and Permanent Portfolio (25%).
One thing is for sure, Goldbugs sure do come up with better portfolio names than the rest of us. "Three fund portfolio" just don't have the same pizzazz as these!
by Day9
Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Series EE savings bonds attractive now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1093

Re: Series EE savings bonds attractive now?

On one hand, yes they are absolutely attractive compared to a similar duration treasury you will hold to maturity. On the other hand, if I am forced to not cash out for 20 years, wouldn't stocks be the better investment? Almost surely stocks will return more than 3.5% nominal over 20 years, no? I wo...
by Day9
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

I am a tilter but I am actually impressed by the humility of the TSM-only crowd. I believe proponents of other strategies would be spiking the football much harder in a period where their strategy had recent strong performance. Sure some members of the TSM-only crowd are doing this a little bit by a...
by Day9
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"
Replies: 126
Views: 10291

Re: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"

I do not recommend any retirement investor hold a portfolio of 70% long term treasuries.
by Day9
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 116
Views: 11553

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

What is your timeline, just out of curiosity? 5-8 years. Does this mean you are 80 to 85 years old, or that you are 5-8 years from retirement? Sorry for not being clear. I will be 82 years old tomorrow, and I have health issues. Interesting point, Munir. I hadn't thought about this, but it's an int...
by Day9
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"
Replies: 126
Views: 10291

Re: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"

Another approach would to reduce the volatility of the large cap holdings using using some sort of low beta or dividend yield fund. Something like a utilities sector fund or VYM would probably work just fine. I've been using Portfolio Visualizer to see if I could find a combination of asset weights...
by Day9
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swensen Endowment Portfolio Book
Replies: 17
Views: 1053

Re: Swensen Endowment Portfolio Book

2. It occurred to me that about 95% of university endowments could benefit from becoming Bogleheads. On the contrary. Unsuccessful University endowments invest too much like retail investors. Something like 60% stocks, 40% bonds. Once Swensen took over Yale's, he drastically decreased the percentag...
by Day9
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leave BAM for Vanguard or Fidelity?
Replies: 61
Views: 4421

Re: Leave BAM for Vanguard or Fidelity?

Many posters in this thread are assuming all BAM clients have a highly tilted "Larry Portfolio". That is not the case. Larry has said most of his clients have a moderate 0.3 tilt to small and value and only a small minority of his clients have a substantial 0.6 tilt to small and value, and they woul...
by Day9
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swensen Endowment Portfolio Book
Replies: 17
Views: 1053

Re: Swensen Endowment Portfolio Book

David Althaus wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:45 am
...
2. It occurred to me that about 95% of university endowments could benefit from becoming Bogleheads.
...
I get the same sense yet they are supposed to be the "smart money / institutional investor" and we are supposed to be the "dumb money / retail investors" :|
by Day9
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is medium/long term planning (>5 yrs) useless?
Replies: 20
Views: 1052

Re: Is medium/long term planning (>5 yrs) useless?

You are right that in the long term the universe of possible outcomes expands greatly and there is no way to predict the future with any level of precision. But be careful not to make the other mistake like: "You can be hit by a car and killed so there is no reason to eat healthy and exercise" It re...
by Day9
Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

...Controlling for investment and profitability seems to bring size back to life as well... Cliff Asness discusses this in his paper "Size Matters If You Control Your Junk". The crude title means the size factor exists if you filter out low quality companies. [deleted off-topic comment -mighty72]
by Day9
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway
Replies: 144
Views: 12308

Re: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway

The Boglehead investment philosophy has 10 points. The first point is "Develop a workable plan". "The Bogleheads approach to developing a workable financial plan is to establishing [sic] a sound financial lifestyle."


https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy
by Day9
Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

... I am a newbie, am learning a lot from this forum. Many of you have worked so hard to make this an excellent place to learn and get help. When some of these informative posts end up so long with many unnecessary back and forth it becomes very difficult to follow. (i guess some of it can move to ...
by Day9
Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"
Replies: 126
Views: 10291

Re: "The Best Diversifiers For Your Equity Portfolio"

Perhaps this thought is stale, but I recall that the volatility/expected returns tradeoff was not particularly appealing for LT bonds compared to shorter duration bonds. Perhaps at current very low rates, that relationship has disapated since we now are at a permanently low plateau of interest rate...
by Day9
Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Say we have 2 stocks , one is small cap and the other is large. They both have the same beta. How can one perform different than the other if they both move equally with the market? Today is analogy day for me, apparently. Imagine a pair of identical people: same height, same strength, etc. These t...
by Day9
Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Factorheads define market beta premium as the return of the market minus the return of the risk free rate, for example by subtracting the return of VTSAX Vanguard total stock by the return of 1-month T-bills. When Larry points out three different 13 year periods where the market underperformed 1-mon...
by Day9
Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Factorheads, Please turn to page 186 of Larry's Factor book and see table 9.1 for the historical correlations of the factors. The Umbrella stand analogy is good for demonstrating the basics but it kind of implies the "hot weather" and "cold weather" factors are perfectly negatively correlated. In La...
by Day9
Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]
Replies: 58
Views: 220678

Re: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... y-2018.pdf Interesting reading. Their summary comments on factor investing: We report on the profitability of following strategies based on market capitalization, value versus growth, dividend yield, s...
by Day9
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factor Investing Works (Despite What Some May Say)

I agree with one poster who said he should not invest in what he does not understand. That poster joined this forum relatively recently, and the old salts of this forum have been discussing factor investing (or tilting, or slice & dice) for many years, and no longer bother to explain their jargon. O...
by Day9
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factor Investing Works (Despite What Some May Say)

I have access to DFA funds in two different 401k plans (from 2 different employers). I do not have a financial advisor. I hear this is not uncommon. Value has underperformed for 10 years. In Larry's factor book he argues that there is a 15% chance for Value to underperform in a 10 year period (and a...
by Day9
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factor Investing Works (Despite What Some May Say)

whodidntante wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:32 pm
I've noticed that sometimes people don't bother reading the article or even the OP. Maybe this meme will help.
...
I love this. Can I join you?
Image