Search found 861 matches

by Day9
Tue May 26, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23051

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

KF, I have read your posts over the years and you have been perhaps the #1 voice in my life telling me the bald truth about long term job security in IT. I wish you the best and maybe with more free time I will happily see more of your posts on Bogleheads.
by Day9
Fri May 22, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51621

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Should non-Americans have the bulk of their bonds in LT treasuries? I wouldn't personally. Currency risk goes on the stock side of the portfolio for me. Long bonds are volatile enough without adding currency risk. I'm trying to imagine myself living in, say, Europe, and deciding to buy dismal 1%-yi...
by Day9
Wed May 20, 2020 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1475
Views: 119422

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

So I see many replacing SLYV with AVDV and DLS with AVUV. What about DGS allocations? Avantis offers an emerging market ETF "AVEM". I have not looked into it since I have a retirement plan with access to DFA Emerging Markets Value fund which I use for my emerging market allocation. Larry Swedroe tw...
by Day9
Tue May 19, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My idea for a 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 843

Re: My idea for a 3-fund portfolio

Let me get this straight. The entire portfolio is 1. Emerging Markets Small Cap Dividend, 2. Japan small cap dividend, 3. International small cap, fundamental or not 100% international stocks, no US stocks, no bonds of any kind. I think you need to read the basics of the Boglehead wiki on Asset Allo...
by Day9
Tue May 19, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession
Replies: 20
Views: 1965

Re: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession

Since the 2008-9 financial crisis, Boomer's retirement portfolios recovered, Gen X who walked away from underwater houses have had their credit score restored, but millenials' careers were stunted which caused them permanent damage. Something similar will happen to the class of '20 but unlike the la...
by Day9
Fri May 08, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1475
Views: 119422

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Latest from Cliff Asness. Tackling the question using 'academic style' (book value) and other value metrics. 'Is (Systematic) Value Investing Dead?' https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Is-Systematic-Value-Investing-Dead Commentary on this article by Larry Swedroe on twitter: https://twitter.c...
by Day9
Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1475
Views: 119422

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Larry Swedroe on the new Avantis ETFs on Twitter. Read the tweet and his short responses. Cheers fellow factorheads :beer

https://twitter.com/larryswedroe/status ... 2723604482
by Day9
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Bond Market's Expectation for Future Inflation?
Replies: 54
Views: 2973

Re: What's the Bond Market's Expectation for Future Inflation?

Larry Swedroe points out a couple complications to simply subtracting the TIPS yield from the nominal treasury yield. 1. Treasuries have a liquidity premium. They are the premier flight-to-safety asset. This means their yield is lower because they are sought after for this reason. 2. TIPS guarantee ...
by Day9
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?
Replies: 73
Views: 3701

Re: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?

I was Age-15 in bonds before the crisis, and I still intend to remain at Age-15 during and after it. I am considering more sophisticated glide paths but years ago I decided Age-15 reflected my need, ability, and willingness to take risk, and it still does. My consideration of more sophisticated glid...
by Day9
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?
Replies: 25
Views: 1598

Re: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?

I have $20k of the 0.5% real yielding I Bonds and I am happy I have them. I treat them as part of my bond allocation. I have a bond barbell and include I Bonds in the short end of the barbell, and long term treasury bonds in the long end of the barbell.
by Day9
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH - Concept
Replies: 7
Views: 310

Re: TLH - Concept

I would like to point out at Vanguard I was not able to figure out how to trade individual bonds with SpecID. I bought lots of a particular long term treasury bond on many different dates as rates rise and fell, and I wanted to sell specific lots, but I did not see the ability to do this. I called V...
by Day9
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should LT bonds be considered a separate asset class from stocks and bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1035

Re: Should LT bonds be considered a separate asset class from stocks and bonds?

"The purity of noncallable, long-term, default-free Treasury bonds provides the most powerful diversification to investor portfolios." -David Swenson, Unconventional Success
by Day9
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative interest rate has arrived
Replies: 37
Views: 4325

Re: Negative interest rate has arrived

Thankfully small time individual investors have better alternatives for low-duration, safe fixed income than negative yielding T-Bills. FDIC insured bank accounts yielding 0% are better than negative yielding T-Bills, not to mention other examples with more restrictions like I Bonds and Stable Value...
by Day9
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 8
Views: 814

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Thanks for posting. I think I'm realizing that at this point in my life I'm a bit too cowardly to maintain the Coward's Portfolio. Is the relative success of the Larry Portfolio in this short span almost all due to his 30:70 allocation, or did his choice of stock categories have a major impact in r...
by Day9
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VPU down?
Replies: 2
Views: 246

Re: VPU down?

VPU = Vanguard Utilities ETF

I would like to take this moment to remind everyone again that utility stocks are not a substitute for safe bonds in a portfolio.
by Day9
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 11714

Re: I won the game but kept playing

Larry Swedroe tells the story of an older man and wife who he was meeting for the first time. The husband invested the whole $12 million portfolio in high-flying tech stocks and after the tech crash it fell to $2 million. Larry asked the husband "If instead the $12 million had grown to $24 million, ...
by Day9
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?
Replies: 15
Views: 1655

Re: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?

This is another example why dividend paying stocks, even safe utilities, cannot replace the role of bonds in a portfolio. People see the low bond yields of today and sometimes make the mistake of reaching for yield with junk bonds and dividend stocks, or more exotic instruments like MLPs or covered ...
by Day9
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1475
Views: 119422

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

garlandwhizzer's observation about 27 year underperformance of live funds is concerning. Especially when you look at Larry Swedroe's Factor Book Page 190, table 9.3 "Odds of underperformance" That table says that in a 20-year period, Value has a 6% chance to underperform, size has a 14% chance to un...
by Day9
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 492
Views: 41718

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Dear Bogleheads, I am 30 years old. Have been investing for about 4 years, with the last 2 spent stalking this website but never posting. Today, I felt the urge to "do something" and decided to sign up! Just a few personal notes in response to this thread. 1.Thanks to Boglehead knowledge, I've been...
by Day9
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Solution
Replies: 20
Views: 1248

Re: My Solution

For every $24,000 you have in and index fund, you have one one-billionth of the market cap (Assuming $24 trillion US market cap, source here ). You can call this one nanomarket Calculate how many nanomarkets you have. Notice how your number of nanomarkets does not decrease when the market falls. If ...
by Day9
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18802
Views: 2628360

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The speed of this decline has been remarkable. I think this is the whole idea of a Black Swan and the problem with the "market has priced in this or that". The market prices in all of the conceivable info, but we do get hit with events that cannot be factored in too. I think people misunderstand th...
by Day9
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spec ID trading at Fidelity
Replies: 3
Views: 390

Re: Spec ID trading at Fidelity

A moment ago I encountered the same thing at Vanguard, but it was no big deal to sum the shares with a loss. In the next screen after I entered the sum I was shown a list of lots and checkboxes by them, like you want. I would ask your question to Fidelity customer support.
by Day9
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21563

I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4330526-i-bond-investors-time-to-buy I Bonds current real yield is 0.2%. TIPS have negative real yields, including the 30 year which is currently -0.2%. "The I Bond is clearly the best very safe inflation-protected investment in the world." This is one of the advant...
by Day9
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not exchange all total bond for total market today?
Replies: 35
Views: 2712

Re: Why not exchange all total bond for total market today?

You should have decided your rebalancing strategy well in advance. The Boglehead way is to develop a workable plan and stay the course. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy Two common rebalancing strategies are to rebalance once or twice a year (e.g. on your birthda...
by Day9
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10205

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Is this the kind of correction that will harm an accumulator's human capital? For example someone entering the job market shortly after the 2008 financial crisis may have had their whole career stunted, when corporations were firing and not thinking of hiring new grads. A certain kind of tech worker...
by Day9
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium
Replies: 87
Views: 4333

Re: The Advisor Fee

garland whizzer: DFSVX requires an advisor; VFINX does not. Did you add the advisor's cost of DFSVX into your comparison? Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: " A broker has to sell you something or he doesn't eat at the end of the day." It doesn't require an advisor if it is available...
by Day9
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)
Replies: 101
Views: 7428

Re: Preparation for ZIRP/NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy)

Definitely do NOT reach for yield by buying junk bonds, convertible notes, MLPs, or dividend stocks to replace your safe bonds. Low interest rates and high stock valuations means expected returns of a stock/bond portfolio is lower. The correct response to this environment is to save more, work longe...
by Day9
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Valuesburg Address" by Cliff Asness - humor for those hanging onto Value tilts
Replies: 10
Views: 1029

"The Valuesburg Address" by Cliff Asness - humor for those hanging onto Value tilts

https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/The-Valuesburg-Address Asness rewrites the famous speech by Abraham Lincoln. Instead of an homage to fallen soldiers, he writes an homage to fallen Value investors. Call it irreverent, but it is not the first controversial title by this author (think "Size ...
by Day9
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8299

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

Larry Swedroe on twitter: "Last 3 days shows why should have ONLY high quality bonds for FI. Others see correlations to stocks rise at wrong time while high quality bond correlation turns negative. And why dividend paying stocks not substitutes either & why should consider alts like LENDX/SRRIX/CCFL...
by Day9
Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?
Replies: 55
Views: 7433

Re: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?

I bonds are obviously an advantage small money investors have over big money, as they are just better than TIPS at the moment. I bought $20,000 of the 0.5% I-Bonds, treated them as short duration, and extended the duration of the rest of my bond portfolio so that it has an overall duration equal to ...
by Day9
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5109

Re: Anybody buying gold?

Someone once suggested spending your gold allocation of your portfolio on jewelry for your wife. That way you get your allocation to gold, and she gets to wear the jewelry. The problem with that is she might not be too happy when it comes time to rebalance and you raid her jewelry box :beer
by Day9
Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's all about accumulating shares?
Replies: 71
Views: 6594

Re: It's all about accumulating shares?

How many "nanomarkets" do you own? To calculate this, divide the share price of VTI by the market cap of the US stock market. Then use this information to determine how many "one billionth" shares of the market you own. That is your number of "nanomarkets". Watch that number grow! :beer
by Day9
Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds are you buying?
Replies: 71
Views: 4605

Re: What bonds are you buying?

Bond barbell with 0.5% real I-Bonds as the "low duration" end, and long term treasuries as the "high duration" end. I target an overall high duration so it is mostly long term treasuries. Stock bond 85/15 overall.
by Day9
Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tao te Ching or Tao de Bogle
Replies: 5
Views: 643

Re: Tao te Ching or Tao de Bogle

“Simplicity, patience, compassion.
These three are your greatest treasures.”
-Tao te Ching
by Day9
Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you holding bonds
Replies: 161
Views: 11667

Re: Why are you holding bonds

The answer to meager, perhaps negative real bond yields is not to abandon bonds. It is to save more, work longer, and if already in retirement, spend less. That is not the answer people want to hear but it is the most prudent answer.
by Day9
Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds are you buying?
Replies: 71
Views: 4605

Re: What bonds are you buying?

Jack Bogle used to say your bond allocation is an "anchor to windward". But with today's low, perhaps negative real yields they feel more like just an "anchor". But I will repeat, do not try to do something foolish like buy junk bonds, replace bonds with dividend stocks, buy MLPs, convertible notes,...
by Day9
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds are you buying?
Replies: 71
Views: 4605

Re: What bonds are you buying?

Do not reach for yield. Continue to buy your high quality bonds of choice (Total Bond Index, Treasuries, CDs, or similar), and just increase your savings rate or work longer. Unfortunately that is the best option.
by Day9
Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 222
Views: 15202

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

I'm surprised no one has suggested QSPIX AQR Style Premia Alternative: "The Fund invests long and short across five different asset groups (stocks & industries, equity indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities) and four investment styles (Value, Momentum, Carry and Defensive), and aims to be...
by Day9
Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swensen treasury bond composition in 2020?
Replies: 14
Views: 1555

Re: Swensen treasury bond composition in 2020?

I don't know why your bond portfolio maturities should exactly match the outstanding treasury market. I think you should customize this to your own situation. Consider your stock/bond mix, and your investment horizon. If you are young with a 90/10 mix then a higher duration bond portfolio makes more...
by Day9
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $3 million the new rule of thumb?
Replies: 653
Views: 50658

Re: $3 million the new rule of thumb?

I have a bad habit of clicking on financial clickbait. This one is worse than normal: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/retirement-dreams-dollar3-million-is-the-new-dollar1-million/ar-BBZnv6v Essentially, the financial planner quoted in the article says that retirees should expect to need $120K ...
by Day9
Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 445
Views: 69330

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."

1. Sorry to read that Larry left again. 2. Larry had zero compunction with getting up into other people’s grills, so it seems pretty silly for him to take his ball and go home. People would call Larry nasty names like "Shill", and worse, and accuse him of only posting here for his own financial gai...
by Day9
Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds vs. CDs
Replies: 9
Views: 911

Re: Bond funds vs. CDs

Our wiki is a good resource:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Certificate_of_deposit

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/CDs_vs_bonds

FDIC insured CDs are good fixed income investments, especially when they have higher yield than a treasury of equal maturity.
by Day9
Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock threads as a counter indicator
Replies: 42
Views: 3395

Re: 100% stock threads as a counter indicator

My guess would be that it would be better to survey the opinions of the big money market movers rather than Bogleheads. Though many Bogleheads are millionaires, they are small fish by comparison. Maybe if you see lots of interviews of big pension fund managers bragging about their high returns compa...
by Day9
Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?
Replies: 72
Views: 7603

Re: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?

I would like to contrast this idea to the "Bond Tent" where you hold a higher allocation to bonds in the years leading up to retirement, and shortly after retirement, to reduce sequence-of-returns risk when your portfolio value is highest. An important question is what will your allocation be the da...
by Day9
Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic v. International Megathread
Replies: 64
Views: 4206

Re: Domestic v. International Megathread

If you are a young accumulator whose future potential earnings (human capital) vastly outweigh portfolio size, overweigh international to diversify since your human capital probably correlates stronger with the US Market. Furthermore valuations indicate international developed & emerging are higher ...
by Day9
Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DLS. Appropriate choice for intl small value?
Replies: 23
Views: 3395

Re: DLS. Appropriate choice for intl small value?

Since Jan 2008 according to Portfolio Visualizer

DLS: 4.15% CAGR
Vanguard Total International Investor Shares: 1.54% CAGR
by Day9
Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Using Your Target-Date Fund Wrong?"
Replies: 15
Views: 2761

Re: "Are You Using Your Target-Date Fund Wrong?"

Thank you for sharing this link, Taylor. I doubt an experienced Boglehead would make this mistake but this is something we can look for if someone close to us asks us to check up on their 401k allocations. I wonder how many novice investors make a different blatant error and think the date in the ta...
by Day9
Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 15428

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

This makes me think I should browse the "Personal Finance (Not Investing)" and "Personal Consumer Issues" boards more than this "Investing - Theory, News & General" board.