Search found 290 matches

by Admiral Fun
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?
Replies: 25
Views: 2069

Re: HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?

3) Having a paid off house reduces our sequence of risk since we do not have to pay rent or a mortgage payment each month. Here is a very simplistic example of that which I have posted before. You may want to play with your actual numbers looking at it this way. This effect can be eliminated by viewing the mortgage as a negative bond, and offsetting it with a bond portfolio. For a perfect offset, you could take out a mortgage and buy a bond ladder that pays exactly enough each year to make that year's mortgage payments. You would have the same amount to spend on non-mortgage expenses with both the bonds and the mortgage as you would with neither. And this also gives a guide for whether you should pay cash or take out a mortgage. If the aft...
by Admiral Fun
Sat Mar 23, 2024 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?
Replies: 25
Views: 2069

Re: HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?

delamer wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:42 pm
I haven’t given any thought to whether asset allocation should vary for renters vs. homeowners. You mentioned possibly more bonds if you are renting. What’s your thought there?
My thought is that bonds and a mortgage are the opposite - one is debt and the other is a loan. They cancel each other out.
by Admiral Fun
Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?
Replies: 25
Views: 2069

Re: HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?

Super helpful thoughts everyone. I guess it is not surprising that there is no clearcut answer.

I'm surprised that more people are not in the "retired people should own" camp.

Any views about the asset allocation question -- should it differ depending on the amount of debt, amount locked up in home equity, etc.?
by Admiral Fun
Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?
Replies: 25
Views: 2069

HCOL in retirement - mortgage vs. paid off vs. rent?

In 5 years (age: upper 50s) we may semi-retire and move close to family who live in a HCOL area. Lots of people advocate a paid off house in retirement, but the equity in our current house (LCOL area) is a tiny fraction of the cost of a house where we would like to move. Option 1: Buy house. Use $400k home equity as down payment, take out mortgage for $1 million. Remaining portfolio will be $5 million, which is 25x expenses including the mortgage payment of $7000/month. Option 2: Buy house. Pay $1.4 million in cash. Remaining portfolio will be ~$3.9 million after taxes, which covers 31x expenses including monthly RE taxes of $1000. Option 3: Rent a house. Portfolio will be $5.4 million which covers 31x expenses including rent of $5000/month...
by Admiral Fun
Wed Mar 06, 2024 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice
Replies: 43
Views: 8732

Re: Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice

Mattman25 wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:21 pm
3) The individual must be okay with international exposure. In the case of this paper, 50% of their portfolio in developed ex-US countries. This helps diversify some country-specific risk and relies less on the excellent performance the U.S. Stock Market has seen going forward into the future where that outperformance may not be as certain.
In the paper, I think international diversification mostly helped people in ex-US countries (i.e. their ‘international’ is a large slug of USA).

There’s much more country specific risk in small countries with undiversified stock markets.
by Admiral Fun
Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023
Replies: 14
Views: 2319

Re: TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023

livesoft wrote: Fri Sep 29, 2023 4:01 pm 5+% money market fund? Then you can market-time buying bond funds later.
What’s your signal to get back in? :twisted:
by Admiral Fun
Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Find it confusing to leverage AOTC - 529
Replies: 26
Views: 2619

Re: Find it confusing to leverage AOTC - 529

I’m doing exactly this for both of my kids. I only paid $2,000 OOP for each of them towards their tuition. Turbo Tax is recommending that a portion of the 529 withdrawal I took for the remainder of their tuition (max of $4000 for each) be treated as a non-qualified withdrawal instead. The small amount of additional tax I’m paying on the unqualified portion of the 529 gain (along with no penalty) is far less than the full credit amount of $2,500 each. If I recall, the additional tax was around $90 vs $1,000 (total for both) additional credit. TT has been programmed to help you optimize this. Just be sure to fill out all the appropriate sections related to education expenses. I need to pay tax on the $4000 529 withdrawal (w/o 10% penalty) so...
by Admiral Fun
Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Traditional rates (historical view)
Replies: 37
Views: 4111

Re: TIAA Traditional rates (historical view)

The new rates on old vintages are quite interesting.

I'm curious if anyone re-evaluates ownership of TIAA Trad (liquid version) based on the March 1st revisions.

For example, keep liquid TIAA Trad if average crediting rate > 7 day SEC yield of Total Bond Market, otherwise swap.

Does anyone have any rules they use for this?
by Admiral Fun
Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity
Replies: 149
Views: 20248

Re: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity

I was just re-visiting this interesting thread from 2019-2020, which focuses on Illiquid TIAA Trad. This research paper that says TIAA Trad is 'safer' in short run but over a 8-9 year duration, matching credit and quality, may perform slightly worse than easily constructed ETF alternatives: https://content.csbs.utah.edu/~lozada/Research/MTIAA_4_UU.pdf Anyone who eschewed Trad to invest in the ETF alternatives suggested in that paper would have been sorely disappointed. This TIAA research paper from 2022 says that TIAA Trad crediting rates are on average about 1.7% better than 10 year treasury yields: https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/t/tiaa-traditional-white-paper.pdf The realized premium of Trad over 10 year treasuries have been much larger ...
by Admiral Fun
Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Find it confusing to leverage AOTC - 529
Replies: 26
Views: 2619

Re: Find it confusing to leverage AOTC - 529

realclemsongrad wrote: Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:47 pm Thank you everyone. I am so glad I asked, you all sent me a direction I never thought of which is to claim full AOTC. I was not looking at the big picture on how to claim full AOTC and pay tax on portion of 529 distributions.
Realclemsongrad - if you figure out how to do this in TurboTax, you would be doing a great service to post the step-by-step instructions on this thread!
by Admiral Fun
Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your 'reverse glidepath' stories!
Replies: 26
Views: 4706

Re: Share your 'reverse glidepath' stories!

I suppose that those like myself who are more comfortable with a "time segmentation" approach to organizing one's portfolio are really in a sense using a bond tent or rising glide path approach. - For money needed over the first 0-6 years our money is in money markets, CDs, Treasury Bonds or MYGAs. - 7-10 years out, a mix of 30% equity/70% fixed income. - For expenses > 10 years, depending on whether they are "essential" or "discretionary" they are invested in 40% - 60% equity / 60% - 40% fixed income. I am thinking about this in a similar way, except the expenses >10 years would be 100% stock. The result is roughly 10 years in safe-ish assets. Over time that would give me a reverse glidepath presuming stocks ...
by Admiral Fun
Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your 'reverse glidepath' stories!
Replies: 26
Views: 4706

Re: Share your 'reverse glidepath' stories!

nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:39 am I think it is valid to observe that (as far as I know) there is not one single target date retirement fund that has adopted this approach. That suggests that the merits are not all that compelling. That's not a reason to do it, but it's a reason to stop and think.
My guess it is less about merit and more that the bond tent approach is outside of standard advice and a little bit difficult to explain. The target date crowd may want to be “with the herd”.

I wonder if many older retirees have a rising glidepath once they are in the clear financially and saving for charities or their heirs. This seems a little different from the bond tent idea.
by Admiral Fun
Mon Feb 19, 2024 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your 'reverse glidepath' stories!
Replies: 26
Views: 4706

Share your 'reverse glidepath' stories!

Big ERN ( https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/ ) and Michael Kitces ( https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/ ) have made the case that rising equity allocations in retirement can mitigate sequence of returns risk and improve long term returns compared to flat or decreasing glidepaths. A reverse glidepath sure sounds scary to a retiree, and I'm sure many are quite happy with their fixed or declining allocation to equities. However, I have a suspicion that rising equity in retirement it is more common than we think, if only because at some point people stop rebalancing, start saving fo...
by Admiral Fun
Sat Feb 17, 2024 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?
Replies: 6
Views: 685

Re: HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?

Just to make sure I am going about this is the right way: Can I retroactively report the rollover by amending my tax returns with a revised form 8889?

I would just update line 14b "Distributions included on line 14a that you rolled over to another HSA"

It won't change form 1040 or the taxes I owe.

Does this sound right?
by Admiral Fun
Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?
Replies: 6
Views: 685

Re: HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?

volstagg wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:14 pm So, for the last several years you've been ignoring the 1099-SA being issued to you annually by Optum Bank? Do you do your taxes by hand or use a tax program? Every year I've done my taxes with a program (TurboTax, TaxFreeUSA, etc) I've been asked "Do you have an HSA? If yes, did you withdraw any funds from that HSA? If yes, enter the numbers from your 1099-SA."
I didn't think that a withdrawl was the same as a rollover so I likely entered no to the question of "did you withdraw any funds from that HSA?"

How do I fix this? What are the consequences? I have 3 years of unreported rollovers and I use TurboTax.
by Admiral Fun
Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?
Replies: 6
Views: 685

Re: HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?

HomeStretch wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:41 am Is the HSA $ transfer by a direct trustee-to-trustee transfer (not subject to the one-per-year rule and not reported on Form 8889) or by issuing a check made payable to you that you are depositing into the receiving HSA as a rollover?
To avoid fees, I used the 60 day rollover, not direct trustee-to-trustee.
HomeStretch wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:41 am See the sections in the Form 8889 instructions on “rollovers” and for reporting rollovers on Line 14b.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i8889.pdf
I have been doing these rollovers for several years, but have never reported it. How much of a problem is this? Should I amend old returns?
by Admiral Fun
Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?
Replies: 6
Views: 685

HSA 60 day rollover rules - 'reportable event'?

For several years, I've been rolling over funds from Optum Bank to my Fidelity HSA every 12 months plus a day. I just read on the interwebs that 60 day rollovers are a 'reportable event'

"If you'd like to transfer the funds as a 60-day rollover, this is a reportable event and can only be done once per 12 rolling months, per IRS rules."
https://www.reddit.com/r/fidelityinvest ... lover_hsa/

I've never reported anything on my tax returns. Am I doing something wrong? How should I report?

Admiral Fun
by Admiral Fun
Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Lessons learned

Two and a half months after the rollover forms were submitted, the rollovers have finally been processed! Wow did Valic make it painful. I spent untold hours on the phone on behalf of my FIL and likely 30 phone calls to the three separate divisions of valic that service the various accounts. A few suggestions to others... 1. Make sure every minute detail of the form is filled out fully and correctly. Valic is searching for a pretext to declare the paperwork 'out of order'. We had two forms identically filled out - one went through and one did not because of a stray checkmark that bothered one of the underwriters. 2. Make sure the forms are sent to the right address (proper address may not be well advertised - not listed on the forms or on t...
by Admiral Fun
Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: RMD experts: help resolve this pickle
Replies: 5
Views: 998

Re: RMD experts: help resolve this pickle

Alan S. wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:40 pm He took the RMD. Regardless of whether the rollover was a direct rollover or a 60 day rollover, the distribution must be applied to the IRA RMD to the extent the 2024 IRA RMDs for all owned IRAs had not been completed.
Thanks for this information. I just learned that FIL has another IRA account with enough assets to cover the RMD. I presume that if he takes the distribution from that account, everything is covered. No need for extra paperwork. Is that correct?
by Admiral Fun
Mon Jan 29, 2024 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: RMD experts: help resolve this pickle
Replies: 5
Views: 998

RMD experts: help resolve this pickle

Bogleheads,

Two weeks ago (mid-Jan 2024), FIL rolled over an IRA Account to a 403b account. (I know this is not typical, but he wanted TIAA and the options were better in the 403b than IRA).

No RMDs were taken out of the IRA before the money rolled over to the 403b.

I just learned that RMDs for IRA accounts can't be taken from 403b accounts.

So how does he take RMDs on the formerly-IRA money??

-Admiral Fun
by Admiral Fun
Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Re: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?

Here are a few things that have gone wrong so far. Hopefully this will help Bogleheads navigate the hellish purgatory that is Valic/Corebridge: 1. Annuity services rollover forms were sent to wrong address and disappeared into the ether (the address on statements is not the correct one for rollovers; the correct address seems to be a protected secret that you can only get by calling customer service. Better get the right customer service group, there are at least 3). 2. Valic insists that they are missing a form ("New York State Replacement Form") that according to TIAA is not required. 3. Valic says that their rollover form has expired because they mailed it out more than 60 days ago. The form clearly says that it is valid 60 da...
by Admiral Fun
Thu Jan 04, 2024 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS
Replies: 51
Views: 9891

Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

Admiral Fun wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:39 pm Premium to NAV is now -1.6. Another month like last may trigger a buy signal for TREA!
As of Jan 2024, premium to Nav is +6. It is almost time to buy back in. Momentum is strong in TREA/QREARX, so I will wait for a few months with positive returns.
by Admiral Fun
Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?
Replies: 21
Views: 2273

Re: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?

ChrisC wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 4:42 pm LTCi will work well with those CCRCs that are either on a per diem and pay-as-you-go basis for long term care and thus offer contracts other than exclusively Type A contracts.
This is exactly the type of helpful insight I was hoping to get by posting here. Thank you ChrisC.
by Admiral Fun
Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?
Replies: 21
Views: 2273

Re: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?

Thanks everyone for the quick assessment of the policy. Parents were planning on keeping the policy unless I dug up something unexpected. Glad to hear that it seems to be good coverage for the premiums.

Still curious about this: "How do LTC policies like this work if parents eventually enter a continuing care retirement community with lifecare?"

It's my understanding (and I could be wrong) that CCRC facilities effectively include long term care insurance in their monthly fees. Does existing LTC insurance it sit on top of the CCRC coverage? Do people who enter such facilities drop LTC insurance? Can existing LTC coverage be used to lower CCRC fees?
by Admiral Fun
Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?
Replies: 21
Views: 2273

Re: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?

cashmoney wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:30 am Consider whether there is a restoration of benefits,premium waiver when on claims and whether it is eligible for Partnership Program if your state has that.find out if the agent that sold the policy is still active because if he is he is still being paid renewals to service policyholders and has a vested interested in keeping his clients happy.
More great questions.

Premium waiver - yes
Restoration of benefits - will find out
Parnership program - MA does not participate. Not sure of the implications. What happens to coverage if they move out of state?
by Admiral Fun
Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?
Replies: 21
Views: 2273

Re: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?

smitcat wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:06 am "3. Is there anything else I should find out about this policy to fully evaluate it?"
- are the policy premuims currently fixed for life?
- do they cover in home care? If yes what are the daily limits?
- what are the reasons for the 4 year limit? If they utilize less than the $500 per day does the yearly limit increase?
Great questions, thanks!

Yes, home health care is covered up $500/day. If they utilize less than $500/day, the coverage will go beyond 4 years.

The premiums have increased over the years. Not sure if there is some sort of cap.
by Admiral Fun
Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?
Replies: 21
Views: 2273

Long term care policy from 2004: good, bad, ugly?

My parents (healthy, 80 years old, MA residents, liquid net worth ~4 million) have held John Hancock Long Term Care policies since 2004. They asked me to help evaluate the policy, and knowing nothing about insurance, I hope the bogleheads can shine a light. Here are the basics of the policies: - Annual premium for the 2 policies: $5500 - Benefit period: 4 years - Elimination period: 90 days - Inflation coverage: 5% compound - Benefit amount per day $500 (per person) - Policy limit: $740,000 (per person) Questions: 1. Does this seem like reasonable coverage for the premiums? 2. How do LTC policies like this work if parents eventually enter a continuing care retirement community with lifecare? 3. Is there anything else I should find out about...
by Admiral Fun
Sun Dec 24, 2023 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replace Bonds With International Stocks?
Replies: 210
Views: 26031

Re: Replace Bonds With International Stocks?

Something to note here is, assuming that we are talking about a very recent (October, 2023) paper--Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, and Michael S. Doherty, "Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice"--is the source of data they used for "international stocks." They are not using familiar sources like Dimson & al. or the MSCI EAFE index. They are using the results of their own research: ...the panel of asset class returns in developed countries compiled by Anarkulova, Cederburg, and O’Doherty (2023). And the cited reference for that panel is Anarkulova, Aizhan, Scott Cederburg, and Michael S. O’Doherty, 2023, "Long-horizon losses in stocks, bonds, and bills," Working pap...
by Admiral Fun
Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Re: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?

Here are a few things that have gone wrong so far. Hopefully this will help Bogleheads navigate the hellish purgatory that is Valic/Corebridge: 1. Annuity services rollover forms were sent to wrong address and disappeared into the ether (the address on statements is not the correct one for rollovers; the correct address seems to be a protected secret that you can only get by calling customer service. Better get the right customer service group, there are at least 3). 2. Valic insists that they are missing a form ("New York State Replacement Form") that according to TIAA is not required. 3. Valic says that their rollover form has expired because they mailed it out more than 60 days ago. The form clearly says that it is valid 60 day...
by Admiral Fun
Fri Dec 15, 2023 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Re: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?

toddthebod wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:24 pm Are these workplace plans? If not, why not ACATS?
It’s pre-tax money, 401k and trad IRA. The issue is getting Valic to actually process the forms sent via the receiving brokerage.

I don’t know if they use ACATS.
by Admiral Fun
Fri Dec 15, 2023 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Re: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?

IDpilot wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 5:26 pm VALIC is difficult to work with. I've helped several folks move their assets from VALIC to other financial institutions and every time it was painful. VALIC does everything they possibly can to delay the actual transfer and in my experience never inform their customer when the transfer process has been stopped for one of their many reasons. It will require extreme attention to detail on all the paperwork they ask for, willingness to push back on BS requests from them, persistence on your part along with commitment of time from you and your FIL. Good luck!
Wow, this sounds grim. We have not even gotten to the "BS requests" stage - it's just radio silence. How long did it take from start to finish?
by Admiral Fun
Fri Dec 15, 2023 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Rollover in limbo - how to move it along?

On my urging, father in law agreed to consolidate his multiple Valic accounts (high fee AUM advisor) into his TIAA account.

The paperwork was sent in around Thanksgiving. Three weeks later the application seems to be stuck in limbo. I have confirmed that Valic has received the paperwork, but they have not yet processed it. The phone reps have no explanation as to what is taking so long or how long it will take.

It's important that the rollover happens before the end of the year (for one he will lock in a favorable rate in TIAA Trad, which will surely come down in January). What are the magic words that will get this thing moving? Does FIL have any recourse if they don't comply in a timely manner?
by Admiral Fun
Fri Dec 15, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ibonds to tips and back again?
Replies: 6
Views: 822

Re: ibonds to tips and back again?

jeffyscott wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 8:11 am
Tom_T wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:12 am Why would you swap 2.5% real for 1.3% real?
It'd be swapping 1.7% for 1.3%, since TIPS are marketable the current yield is what you earn by continuing to hold from now to maturity. But still, why trade 1.7% for 1.3%?
Two reasons…
1. I can defer paying taxes on the gain until I have a low income year (likely FIRE in next 5-10 years).

2. No reinvestment risk.
by Admiral Fun
Fri Dec 15, 2023 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ibonds to tips and back again?
Replies: 6
Views: 822

ibonds to tips and back again?

I cashed out ibonds yielding 0% to buy 5 year TIPS yielding 2.5%. Now that 5 year yields have collapsed to 1.7% I’m thinking about selling the TIPS and hopping back to ibonds at 1.3% real. Would this be advised for someone in the 22% tax bracket?

All $ is in taxable and actual date I would need the money is unknown, but let’s say 5+ years.
by Admiral Fun
Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS
Replies: 51
Views: 9891

Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

TIAA Real Estate Account (QREARX) today had a price change of -1.27% . I don't think this magnitude change for a single day has happened in a long long time, if ever. The Green Street Premium to NAV was -15.8 last month. I’m sure that will come up this month as REITs have risen, but still indicates that TREA may have farther to fall. That's quite interesting to me since the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VGSLX) was up +12.0% in the past month. I'm thinking that maybe one of TREA's properties finally got an updated appraisal and got marked to market. The Elves behind whatever price is struck fo TREA had been on an optimistic glide path to doom, but too optimistic apparently. Premium to NAV is now -1.6. Another month like last may trigger ...
by Admiral Fun
Tue Dec 05, 2023 5:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else having sync issues with Empower?
Replies: 37
Views: 9273

Re: Anyone else having sync issues with Empower?

We have two Fidelity logins (mine and spouse). I can get either one to work with the new system but not both at the same time (dreaded dot is always next to one of them). Anyone else having this issue?
by Admiral Fun
Sun Dec 03, 2023 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Capital: You Index vs Performance
Replies: 14
Views: 3187

Re: Personal Capital: You Index vs Performance

LrngToFly wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 9:29 am Does anyone know if the “You Index” % performance measurement includes dividends? I know portfoliovisualizer does. I suppose at the end of the year I can compare both to find out. Thanks!
I would be very interested to know if it includes dividends. Do report back!
by Admiral Fun
Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS
Replies: 51
Views: 9891

Re: It's not market timing if it's in your IPS

livesoft wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:15 pm TIAA Real Estate Account (QREARX) today had a price change of -1.27%. I don't think this magnitude change for a single day has happened in a long long time, if ever.
The Green Street Premium to NAV was -15.8 last month. I’m sure that will come up this month as REITs have risen, but still indicates that TREA may have farther to fall.
by Admiral Fun
Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did your kid apply Early Decision? Did they get any merit aid?
Replies: 36
Views: 4876

Re: Did your kid apply Early Decision? Did they get any merit aid?

Context: We won't qualify for need-based aid Kid isn't applying to Ivys, but rather "moderately selective" schools (think 20-60% acceptance rates across reaches and targets) We could afford full pay, but it's a bit steep to pay $80K * 4 = $320K for an undergraduate degree IMO Question: Did your kid apply ED? If so, did they receive any merit aid if accepted? I'm trying to determine if it's worth our kid taking a flyer on an ED application for a reach school that they would be really excited about, or if that's just a recipe for paying full price. Yes, our kid got significant merit aid ED. The institution guaranteed a minimum amount of aid for ED applicants who are accepted. You lose the ability to negotiate but typically institut...
by Admiral Fun
Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying with skis and gear, need tips.
Replies: 8
Views: 795

Re: Flying with skis and gear, need tips.

I use a padded soft ski bag. Works great, and I see no reason to shift to an overbuilt hard shell ski case.

A few options:

1. If you fly southwest, you can check a ski bag and separate boot bag for free. This is on top of your 2 regular checked bags.

2. If you have a large enough duffel you could pack ski boots in there (not carry on).

3. Depending on the length of your trip and the bag fees it may be cheaper to rent skis, especially off mountain. Some people rent skis but bring their own boots.
by Admiral Fun
Wed Nov 08, 2023 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought TIPS in taxable to join the cool kids. Mistake?
Replies: 19
Views: 2474

Bought TIPS in taxable to join the cool kids. Mistake?

I wanted to join the bogleheads TIPS mania so I bought $30k at the recent 5 year auction. Taxable was the only option.

Then I realized I could have bought an intermediate tips fund in my 403b and blended it with cash to get the desired duration. The 30k would go to stocks in this case. More tax efficient.

After the 5 year period is up, how much extra will I have paid due to the tax inefficient placement? (I’m in the 22% federal, 3% state tax bracket). Worth switching?
by Admiral Fun
Sun Oct 29, 2023 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small caps are cheap
Replies: 33
Views: 6279

Small caps are cheap

At the start of this thread, on May 13th 2022, the forward looking PEs were...

S&P 500 Large cap: 17.1
S&P 400 Mid cap: 12.5
S&P 600 Small cap: 11.9

On October 27 2023, they were (drum roll)...

S&P 500 Large cap: 17
S&P 400 Mid cap: 12.1
S&P 600 Small cap: 11.2

Pretty much identical. So, small caps are still cheap (for a reason?)
by Admiral Fun
Wed Oct 18, 2023 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: with 5.5% CDs are Ibonds worth it?
Replies: 50
Views: 7707

Re: with 5.5% CDs are Ibonds worth it?

coachd50 wrote: Wed Oct 18, 2023 5:55 am With Wrenches being on sale at 50% off, are screwdrivers worth it?
More like: with 6 liter Dutch ovens 50% off are 6 liter stockpots worth it?
by Admiral Fun
Fri Oct 13, 2023 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What returns on ibonds and nominals would lure you from TIPS
Replies: 25
Views: 3180

Re: What returns on ibonds and nominals would lure you from TIPS

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 6:15 pm I may be wrong but 10 year nominals could not draw me away from 10 year TIPS because I assume the market basically keeps them in equilibrium. So if I favored TIPS I would go with TIPS, if I favored nominals I would go with nominals.
Perhaps if the market’s inflation assumptions differed from your own?
by Admiral Fun
Fri Oct 13, 2023 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What returns on ibonds and nominals would lure you from TIPS
Replies: 25
Views: 3180

What returns on ibonds and nominals would lure you from TIPS

Thinking as an economist: When 10 year TIPS are returning 2.3 real, what returns on ibonds or nominal 10 year treasuries would make you consider those investments instead?

Maybe 1.8 fixed rate ibonds and 5% nominal treasuries?

Curious what people think would be the threshold where they would be lured away from tips.

Admiral Fun
by Admiral Fun
Fri Oct 06, 2023 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer TIAA holdings from old to new contracts?
Replies: 18
Views: 2382

Re: Transfer TIAA holdings from old to new contracts?

crefwatch wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2023 1:58 pm I have to ask because I stopped working fifteen years ago, and have never been offered RC/RCP.
Father in law has an existing 403b TIAA account and wants to roll over additional funds to TIAA. Is it possible to open a RCP account long after retiring from an employer?
by Admiral Fun
Sun Oct 01, 2023 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023
Replies: 14
Views: 2319

Re: TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023

crefwatch wrote: Sun Oct 01, 2023 6:49 am There is plenty of peer-reviewed research showing that individual investors are supremely poor at market-timing equities. I don't see why we would be any better with fixed-income.
Generally I think you are right, but TIAA Trad has a floor and is not marked to market. That opens up some timing possibilities, eg, in mid-2020 3% guaranteed was a much better bet than near 0% yield.
by Admiral Fun
Sat Sep 30, 2023 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023
Replies: 14
Views: 2319

Re: TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023

Does anyone have data on long term returns of TIAA Trad? I can only find 10 year returns.

I’d love to see a telltale chart of Trad vs bonds going back 30+ years.
by Admiral Fun
Fri Sep 29, 2023 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023
Replies: 14
Views: 2319

TIAA Trad vs bonds in 2023

The past few years, TIAA trad has just killed intermediate bond funds.

It returned 3% when bonds were yielding close to zero, held value as bonds dropped 20%, and now is offering 5.75-6.5 for new money depending on contract.

On the flip side, I’m guessing that bonds would do better if rates decline.

Putting liquidity restrictions aside for the moment, where would you put new contributions to your fixed income in 2023: intermediate bond funds or TIAA trad?
by Admiral Fun
Fri Sep 29, 2023 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)
Replies: 857
Views: 158040

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)

tj wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:05 am
muffins14 wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:02 am
Admiral Fun wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 7:08 am Is anyone waiting for the yield curve to normalize before buying this fund?
More than zero people are doing that. The problem is that by waiting you would then miss out on the price appreciation. It is difficult to time the bond market, in my opinion, but people are smarter than me
The futures that NTSX hold benefit from interest rate reductions in the same way that normal bonds do?
Good question… yes, my understanding is that they benefit in the same way. The complexity is that the financing costs are also affected. If intermediate term rates decline more than short term borrowing becomes more expensive.