Search found 3796 matches

by siamond
Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need to download historical stock prices from URL
Replies: 6
Views: 757

Re: I need to download historical stock prices from URL

How could I obtain a list of Morningstar SecId + Ticker? Thanks in advance. Well, there is no such (public) list, unfortunately. The way I proceed is to start typing keywords in the Morningstar search box. For example, type "S&P 500", and you'll see a list of various indices matching those keywords...
by siamond
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

AlohaJoe wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:13 pm
It would better if the IFCI index were rebased to end-88 IFCG (index of end-88 MSCI World) but just from eye balling it, it appears the IFCI and IFCG have mostly the same big drops and drops.
Oh yes, the two series are highly correlated, this is clear from the graph.
by siamond
Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

I would actually vote against it. [..] I am a little hesitant too, this is why I wanted to have such open discussion. Your points basically elaborate on the list of 'cons' I listed. But you view them as conveying more weight than the other posters so far. I can understand. This being said, one coul...
by siamond
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we save for our son's college?
Replies: 96
Views: 8058

Re: Should we save for our son's college?

Checkout your state-specific 529, and also Utah's . Just curious, why Utah of all places? We're based in NY so I think we have to take their plan to take the state deduction. Strangely enough, you can use the 529 of any state, irrespective of where you live. The 529 plans from UT and NY are the bes...
by siamond
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

Thanks for the feedback. Will proceed with the next Simba update. There are a couple of additional ideas floating in the air, stay tuned.
by siamond
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

So...I got three positive answers by private message and e-mails... And zero feedback via posts on this thread... Did I frighten everybody with the arcane historical stuff? :wink:
by siamond
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 52
Views: 3765

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

About population, the old association between population and GDP growth seems fatally flawed to me. Imagine a country (say China) with 10 Billion people? Would that go well? I think not. Also, imagine a country leapfrogging everybody else on AI and various forms of automation? Even if this country h...
by siamond
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 417
Views: 78903

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I think it is extraordinarily difficult to come up with a robust way to engineer retirement investment and financial management that is a breakthrough compared to any variety of alternatives including down to seat of the pants. There are just too many uncontrollable and unpredictable factors that i...
by siamond
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5061

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

I never bothered to run such numbers myself, shaking my head at the dubious premise underlying those 'alternatives', and quickly moving on to topics I deem more interesting. I didn't expect the outcome to be that scathing though. Thanks, Nisi, for bringing such hard facts to the table. The more I lo...
by siamond
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 417
Views: 78903

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I am curious if anyone has had the time to review and think about the the subject book. Have you adjusted your retirement planning based on the information provided in this book. I was actually the OP initiating this thread, and expressed a lot of interest for this book, which is well researched, p...
by siamond
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 1478

Re: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?

Our global bond funds (UK/ Europe) of course do more or less what you say. I am not aware of one (passive) that includes EM bonds. My own experience of the 1990s and the Mexico Crash, then the Asia Crash & Russian default, was that EM bonds really are a separate asset class with their own unique ri...
by siamond
Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

In the Simba backtesting spreadsheet , the current data series for emerging markets (EM) is based on: - MSCI World ex USA index 1985-1987 (Developed Only) - a very crude mapping - MSCI Emerging Markets index 1988-1994 - Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEIEX) 1995+ Quite obviously, this ...
by siamond
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 1478

Re: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:15 am
VG USA now offers such a fund?
I don't believe so. Or am I missing something? I was speaking of a GLOBAL fund (all countries including the US), not an International ex-US fund. Something equivalent to Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWSX) for bonds?
by siamond
Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 1478

Re: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?

Curious if anybody is splitting up their bond portion of portfolio with these. If you are, how much is in your portfolio and what is your reasoning behind your decision? OP, you might be interested by this small research project on the Bogleheads blog: https://finpage.blog/2017/09/11/portfolio-dive...
by siamond
Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Improving Local Boglehead Chapter Meetings
Replies: 19
Views: 1769

Re: Improving Local Boglehead Chapter Meetings

Attendance at meetings has increased over time but growth has been slow. Attrition is an ongoing concern, as siamond alluded to in his post. Too many come just once or twice... to a person, they say how much they enjoyed the experience but I always wonder if we could be doing something different. Y...
by siamond
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Improving Local Boglehead Chapter Meetings
Replies: 19
Views: 1769

Re: Improving Local Boglehead Chapter Meetings

[…] As the coordinator, I work hard on maintaining a large e-mail distribution list and communicating before and after the meeting. There is clearly a number of people who seem happy with receiving the presentation material without attending. I share this sense of frustration but unfortunately can ...
by siamond
Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

I had gathered bits and pieces, but I finally stumbled upon a paper from S&P that provides full details about the history of IFCG and IFCI (careful readers should check Appendix A). The methodology used for IFCG was somewhat experimental, and refined over time. https://us.spindices.com/documents/res...
by siamond
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1106
Views: 605388

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

For reference, here is a new discussion on how to extend the Emerging Markets data series back in time:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=246941
by siamond
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

As a side note, for the record, I found S&P/IFCI on Morningstar, Sec ID FOUSA06EUI, starting in 1989:

S&P/IFCI Composite TR USD

Not that it really matters since we have MSCI EM numbers since 1988, but well, this is another data point.
by siamond
Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3683

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

SimpleGift wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:33 pm
It'd be interesting to compare the Shiller annual data vs. the Wilson-Jones data to see how large these differences are.
Check this thread... :wink:
by siamond
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

If you're going to extract data from a graph I'd also take a look at the DMS "emerging markets index". I think it was in the 2014 Credit Suisse book. It was 1900-present, so it covers a lot of ground. I seem to recall they made some questionable (but defensible) choices. Emerging markets was any co...
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

For the purpose of the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, using a public index, or something directly derived from an index, works well. And even if such data is imperfect (some non-investable components, most recent research not factored in, etc), it is clearly better than no data, or than a terribly c...
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2590

Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

In the Simba backtesting spreadsheet , the current data series for emerging markets (EM) is based on: - MSCI World ex USA index 1985-1987 (Developed Only) - a very crude mapping - MSCI Emerging Markets index 1988-1994 - Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEIEX) 1995+ Quite obviously, this i...
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3683

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

May I suggest something... There are a lot of fascinating historical nuggets which have been posted in this thread.

It would be great if the most interesting facts could be captured in a historical section of the S&P 500 index wiki page. Just saying.
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3683

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

Second, with regard to human nature and "the market is the market," it depends on what exact uses you want to make of the data. It may tell you something about dynamics or fractal behavior or market psychology. I think it's ludicrous to treat it as quantitative , the mean is thus-and-such, the stan...
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3683

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

Bottom Line: It's hard to see how U.S. stock index data before 1900 can have much relevance for modern markets. Thoughts? For me, the primary relevance is that human nature doesn't really change. As such, speculative crises like the Tulip Mania and others, are very meaningful, even if they occurred...
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New faster DNS - 1.1.1.1 by CloudFlare
Replies: 95
Views: 6880

Re: New faster DNS - 1.1.1.1 by CloudFlare

Thanks, Moshe. Good to know.
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4639

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

Anyhoo, those slides are provided as an open Powerpoint file as an attempt to help the Bogleheads community. People are of course free to pick and choose whatever they want, and assemble derivative presentations as they see fit. Perhaps keep the mechanics portion of the slideset on the BH Wiki, but...
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4639

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

The fact that TIPS recommendations from professional advisors and TIPS composition in professionally designed portfolios is all over the map will be unresolveable issues that will loom over any attempt to generate a clear recommendation. I'll admit that my post was a little bit tongue in cheek... T...
by siamond
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4639

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

My Fidelity bond expert suggests a 5%-10% max total portfolio allocation to TIPS. The above statement is unambiguously a recommendation. Not from the author of the presentation... And if you read the slide in context, the point was to consider TIPS vs. diversification, not about asserting what peop...
by siamond
Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4639

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

My Fidelity bond expert suggests a 5%-10% max total portfolio allocation to TIPS. Perhaps the bond "expert" at Fidelity should confer with the guys at DFA who put about 75% of their TDF fund portfolios into TIPS funds once the investors are in their late 60s or older. Personally, I find both approa...
by siamond
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driver's permit before 18 - Any financial incentive
Replies: 52
Views: 1697

Re: Driver's permit before 18 - Any financial incentive

As others have said, make no mistake it will cost more. You'll have to decide if the benefits are worth the costs. One way to minimize those costs as much as possible is to make sure you have fewer cars than you do drivers. Then the teen can be added to your policy as an "occasional driver". Which ...
by siamond
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 323
Views: 65974

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Just joined the forum. (Hi everyone.) Please add me to the Metro-Boston distribution list. Greetings. Long time Vanguard investor but just joined the forum. Would like to participate in the Great Boston Chapter group. Please add me to the email list. Thank you. Folks, please check your private mess...
by siamond
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 3076

Re: Emerging markets tilt

My equities are split 50/50 between US and International. My international equities include a 25% position in Emerging Markets. Hence a bit of a tilt, at least for now. It was a more aggressive tilt when I started, actually. It is getting less aggressive as I get older, which isn't a bad thing. This...
by siamond
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1106
Views: 605388

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Hm, actually, I use Chrome on MacOS and I have no problem. I see more than 400 clicks on the stats, seems to work pretty well overall.

jlhod1, if you continue to have an issue, please contact me via private message, and I'll try to help you.
by siamond
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driver's permit before 18 - Any financial incentive
Replies: 52
Views: 1697

Re: Driver's permit before 18 - Any financial incentive

Every state is different. In New Hampshire, any 15 year old can drive with no training, no license, no permit by driving with their parent. I didn't realize this was dependent on the state. Yeah, makes sense now that you mention it. So let me qualify, this is for Massachusetts . In an area where no...
by siamond
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driver's permit before 18 - Any financial incentive
Replies: 52
Views: 1697

Driver's permit before 18 - Any financial incentive

I am pondering to get a permit for my younger kid to start driving with me before he's 18. I'll be clear, I have some qualms about putting a minor on the road, I am not fully convinced this is wise. When I was young (been a while! in another country!), nobody would put a kid on the road before they ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Improving Local Boglehead Chapter Meetings
Replies: 19
Views: 1769

Re: Improving Local Boglehead Chapter Meetings

RetiredMarine, congratulation for your efforts, this seems to pay off. Our experience for Metro-Boston (with attendees from New England at large) is that we stabilized around 20 to 25 attendees. There is a core of 8 to 10 people who come most of the time. Maybe a dozen people who come every now and ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4639

Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

Here is a presentation that was assembled for our Bogleheads chapter (Metro-Boston) by a local volunteer (thank you, thank you). It provides a great introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), discussing mechanics, pros, cons, etc. Format is Powerpoint, but you can see the conten...
by siamond
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help create a Financial Presentation: Calling all Bogleheads
Replies: 124
Views: 19789

Re: Help create a Financial Presentation: Calling all Bogleheads

Here is a presentation that was assembled for our local chapter (Metro-Boston). It provides a great introduction about Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Audience is 'General'. Format is Powerpoint. https://goo.gl/iTrE9U PS. the wiki was updated accordingly, see the "Member supplied mat...
by siamond
Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time [Not quite so quick anymore]
Replies: 13
Views: 1354

Re: Quick plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time

I think what we want is expected inflation but that doesn't really come out of actual CPI figures. There are papers and methods on estimating expected inflation from other figures, I suppose, but that's a bit of a deep dive and still probably inexact. I will be more blunt. When we took a deep dive ...
by siamond
Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century
Replies: 16
Views: 1043

Re: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century

[...] So the ending date (and possibly also the starting date, as 1921-1928 wasn't a bad time for the US stock market) does seem to have made a difference. Thanks for tracking this down. It's amazing to see that over a period of nearly a century, start and end dates can have such effect, and skew o...
by siamond
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time [Not quite so quick anymore]
Replies: 13
Views: 1354

Re: Quick plots of stock market and Treasury bond relationship over time

Results are unsurprising, but the methodology is pretty cool. Thanks for sharing.
by siamond
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century
Replies: 16
Views: 1043

Re: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century

I enjoyed this article: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century Some of the numbers that were quoted seem quite strange... Why? Some findings are not consistent with more recent research that I am familiar with. For example, the US, although an excellent performer, was definitely not the best...
by siamond
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century
Replies: 16
Views: 1043

Re: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century

I enjoyed this article: Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century Some of the numbers that were quoted seem quite strange... This article is copyrighted 1999. It's nearly 20 years old. Much better research on International Returns occurred since then, notably the annual Credit Suisse investment...
by siamond
Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016
Replies: 17
Views: 1647

Re: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016

I appreciate the intent of this thread, I really do. It would be really great to be able to perform such analysis over a much longer period of time. Trouble is the historical data (e.g. corruption index) isn't available. So we're limited to 20 years of data, two consecutive decades. And I am afraid ...
by siamond
Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Calculator
Replies: 20
Views: 1646

Re: Bond Index Calculator

The spreadsheet itself is now dead simple and in my experience the results are impressively accurate for a DIY data series. It is indeed impressively simple! Very cool. Now this begs the question... In layman's terms, what are the main differences between this new simulator and Longinvest's origina...
by siamond
Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Reconstruct Stock Indices From Scratch
Replies: 11
Views: 1515

Re: How to Reconstruct Stock Indices From Scratch

Just that you guys now, Tyler did quite some work recently on his stock index calculator, notably shifting to a monthly model. Check it out...

https://portfoliocharts.com/2018/04/03/ ... new-tools/

https://portfoliocharts.com/stock-index-calculator/
by siamond
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Calculator
Replies: 20
Views: 1646

Re: Bond Index Calculator

Very cool, Tyler. Thanks a lot for such effort (spreadsheet and commentary) and for openly sharing such useful tool. Now only can this help going back in US history, this will also help a lot to model past international bonds returns. It would indeed be terrific to have some thorough peer review fro...
by siamond
Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018
Replies: 37
Views: 3325

Re: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018

Finally, I started to think that we may read too much from those sorted charts with monthly observations. It just takes a couple of years to provide 20+ data points on such a chart and create an inflection point. Let's simply come back to a basic side-to-side comparison between the trajectory of Shi...