Search found 4131 matches

by siamond
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1506

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

Sorry, didn't listen to the podcast, but IIRC the argument from the AQR camp is that stocks have historically not been priced as if they are real assets (prices don't respond to changes in inflation or inflation expectations that would follow if they were real assets, unlike some other assets). So ...
by siamond
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you really have something to retire to?
Replies: 113
Views: 8551

Re: Did you really have something to retire to?

I was clearly running AWAY from (burning out at) work, I didn't have much of a plan. My old hobbies (fishing) and new hobbies (financial research and related volunteering) kept me busy enough, combined with a good dose of traveling and exercising. Time passed quickly for a few years, but nowadays, I...
by siamond
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

hdas wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:56 pm
You guys should consider moving away from excel and learning python, pandas....it's excellent for financial data manipulation. H
I'm planning to start playing with 'R', actually. Winter project.
by siamond
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Just for kicks, I entered the monthly historical data for total (US) bonds, using the corresponding Barclays index. Here it is. Unsurprisingly, much more compact outcomes, but also significantly lower portfolio balances at the end. Note that the standard-deviation remains quite high, but remember th...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 350
Views: 80346

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting is scheduled on Saturday Sep 22nd: 1pm to 4pm. Details (agenda & location) have been shared by e-mail. If you guys & gals could let me know if you're planning to come (committed or tentative) by posting on this thread, or sending me a private message, or sending me an e...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

PS. for the sake of healthy skepticism, I'll run all 30 years cycles of MITTX (a very old fund which started in 1925), and see how the distribution works out. I got back to this. No Monte-Carlo here, only historical cycles, starting at every possible month since the fund's inception, faithfully inv...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

To more easily compare with the next charts I am going to post, here is another Monte-Carlo run, but this time, I used real (inflation-adjusted) monthly returns for VTSMX, and a fixed $100 extra monthly investment. Note that this MC run displayed a 'fatter' tail towards the left side, it happened fa...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Since I remain intrigued by the OP's approach, I decided to learn how to create such a simulation myself. For reference before I get to the next posts, here is the updated chart for VTSMX, using the Monte-Carlo-like simulation approach described by the OP, with a more adequate logarithmic scale for...
by siamond
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 77
Views: 8846

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

But if the new incarnation works as advertised---counter to equities, and really up when equities are down---that would be nice (a miracle?). So guess I'll hold it a little longer to see what happens. My small rIRA is my play money account, so might as well play. The historical numbers seem to indi...
by siamond
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 202
Views: 44392

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

My main focus was updating the primary Portfolios experience, but I can see the benefits of the other tools as well. Maybe I am biased by the memories of how it worked, but I find the navigation unintuitive: - I just couldn't find where the primary tools were (I clicked on portfolios, scrolled down...
by siamond
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 202
Views: 44392

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

May I suggest one small thing? Instead of having to customize the portfolio for each individual calculator, couldn't we have a single page with all calculators (like the lazy portfolios display), and enter the portfolio once? Would be much appreciated! I found this request all the way back on page ...
by siamond
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 350
Views: 80346

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Last reminder for our meeting on Saturday Sep 22nd: 1pm to 4pm. Details (agenda & location) have been shared by e-mail.
by siamond
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I'm not using PV's calculations of growth. I'm using my own. They do not adjust for inflation. They probably should and that's something I'll probably get around to. Yes, same here. I'll add it as an option to my computations. It does make more sense that way. A really serious question that I don't...
by siamond
Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

A pending question from the discussion we had in the OP's first scatter/matter post. So far, I did not adjust the $100 for (monthly) inflation in my own models, and this isn't consistent with the way PV does it - yeah, I should fix that. Please clarify how you do it first? [*]The performance is not ...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Lognormal. That's the word I was searching for. We expect the distribution to be lognormal, not normal. And it isn't unrealistic, real-world distributions of financial outcomes are lognormal, not normal. I think I heard that somewhere, anyway. It isn't randomizing just the order, it is randomizing ...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Siamond, although this is tangential to your comments, and may not interest you, I've been thinking that rather than display the end state as a scatter cloud, it might be better to display the entire swath of time courses for the simulations PortfolioCharts.com has something like that, I think, see...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Since I remain intrigued by the OP's approach, I decided to learn how to create such a simulation myself. With a heavy use of the RAND() function, and a big copy & paste of 500 simulations, this turned out to be reasonably easy to do. Besides learning, I was curious about the shape of the distributi...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 77
Views: 8846

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Ok, I thought more about it. So far, in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet , we have a VGPMX data series from 1985 till now, as a proxy for the precious metals and mining (PME) industry sector. The main point of tracking it is that this allows analytical people to develop an opinion about the divers...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is requiring cell phone security codes - problem for international travel (UPDATE)
Replies: 65
Views: 3751

Re: Vanguard is requiring cell phone security codes - problem for international travel

Let me suggest you go all the way for better security, and use a Yubikey to secure access to your Vanguard account. I've been doing that for a while, and I find it very convenient. And this would work fine if you travel anywhere without a cell phone, as long as you keep your Yubikey on a keys ring ...
by siamond
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is requiring cell phone security codes - problem for international travel (UPDATE)
Replies: 65
Views: 3751

Re: Vanguard is requiring cell phone security codes - problem for international travel

Let me suggest you go all the way for better security, and use a Yubikey to secure access to your Vanguard account. I've been doing that for a while, and I find it very convenient. And this would work fine if you travel anywhere without a cell phone, as long as you keep your Yubikey on a keys ring o...
by siamond
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

The whole point is to put something that would do the job of an error bar, or a box-and-whiskers plot. Well, the only answer I can think of is to vary the start-date while using historical data, and when possible, get out-of-sample (e.g. in another country). PortfolioCharts.com did a wonderful job ...
by siamond
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1620

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Thanks for documenting the methodology, Nisiprius. I don't have much to add, we already had a good discussion in Part1, and I documented in this post the issues I see with such approach. To summarize, I just don't see that the scatter clouds are adding much value to the points (big cross) on which t...
by siamond
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 111
Views: 7338

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

I have my own big tax planning spreadsheet, which I initially developed to analyze the Roth conversion process, following my early retirement. Doing the math post-tax (*including* state taxes) and in net-present-value, the gains of postponing SSA seemed rather elusive, although in our case, this sti...
by siamond
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does IRS life expectancy table change?
Replies: 13
Views: 2002

Re: Does IRS life expectancy table change?

Spirit Rider wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:54 am
Note: You resurrected a one year old zombie thread and must have missed this recent thread Possible Change to RMDs? [Executive order]
I did miss it. Thanks for the pointer.
by siamond
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does IRS life expectancy table change?
Replies: 13
Views: 2002

Re: Does IRS life expectancy table change?

I was pondering about those RMD tables, and yes, they seem somewhat outdated (the longevity numbers, that is). As a side note, one could wonder how the distribution percentages are computed by the IRS, based on the lifetime expectancy for a given age. I read the answer in an article from Wade Pfau a...
by siamond
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF
Replies: 48
Views: 5373

Re: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF

Will ponder about switching to it by the end of the year, as my IPS dictates. This is very tempting. Plain and simple, no need to fiddle with multiple bond funds, sounds all good to me. As usual with diversification, my approach is always to maximize diversification by default, hence to ask "is ther...
by siamond
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ready to buy iPhone 8 now, but..
Replies: 39
Views: 3298

Re: Ready to buy iPhone 8 now, but..

I am also planning to buy an iPhone 8 (actually two, as both my son and myself are in need of a new phone). I am in no rush, I'll wait until early November, until the dust will have settled on the new announcements and their consequences... Check T-Mobile if it works where you need it, especially if...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bored
Replies: 56
Views: 9378

Re: Bored

OP, if you're not already doing that, then start using a tool to track & archive your household's expenses on a monthly basis (e.g. Mint, Personal Capital, Quicken, whatever). After setting them up, those tools are very automated, and don't require much more than one hour of attention every month. L...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 20
Views: 3100

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

I think the non-US bonds are currency hedged, but Vanguard badly wrote the description for BNWD so that the hedging is not immediately obvious. You have an eagle eye, I totally missed that. Yes, you're correct, the press release actually makes it more clear: Vanguard Total World Bond ETF is subject...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 20
Views: 3100

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

If the bonds are currency hedged (I have not checked) then you should expect returns to be similar to USD risk free bonds - the process of currency hedging more or less assures that. Any additional return you get will largely come from increased credit risk over US Treasury bonds. (There's another ...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1119
Views: 627521

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Another update to plan for the first 2019 Simba revision. The Global Bonds data series was anchored on the Pimco Global Bond Fund (unhedged) Class D (PGBDX). This was never terribly satisfying, as this is a rather active fund with a very high ER (0.95). Or I should say "it was", as the fund now disa...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 20
Views: 3100

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

I don't care much about having such option in the annuity, but if this is an indication of Vanguard preparing for a regular low cost index fund centered on Global Bonds, that I would be interested for my regular investments. It appears that it was an indication after all....Vanguard is now launchin...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 350
Views: 80346

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting is scheduled on Saturday Sep 22nd: 1pm to 4pm. Details (agenda & location) have been shared by e-mail. If you guys & gals could let me know if you're planning to come (committed or tentative) by posting on this thread, or sending me a private message, or sending me an e...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Posting spreadsheets?
Replies: 5
Views: 834

Re: Posting spreadsheets?

LOL, I've been a spreadsheet-obsessed Bogleheads for quite a while, I never hesitated to share, I started to maintain a couple of those on behalf of the community, and the mods have still to expel me! :D OP, this is perfectly fine. This is a number-oriented community. By all means, spreadsheet shari...
by siamond
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16584

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

I don't know... Maybe the old lady is a bit wiser than her son is giving her credit for... Quite clearly, she's been primarily investing for him and his time horizon ("You’re going to get it all anyway, so you do what’s best.”). Quite clearly, she's been following his advice for a long time (same qu...
by siamond
Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Nits picked. The page is now "live", see: Callan periodic table of investment returns . I updated the Google Sheets for the dispersion graph and stats table, adding the missing HY Bonds, updating some out-of-sync numbers, focusing on the past 20 years (i.e. the most recent Callan's table), and addi...
by siamond
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Sold. We now have a draft page for review: User:LadyGeek/Callan periodic table of investment returns I thought "coefficient of variation" should be part of the new section. I also added a sentence explaining that the "Agg Bond" asset class had the best risk vs. return tradeoff. Looks great, nice wo...
by siamond
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 77
Views: 8846

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

I also remember, as others have, something Bill Bernstein wrote about PMM. He seemed to indicate that if you are going to commit to this fund then you would need to commit for a very very long time in order to reap the benefits. That approach has now been foreclosed on. While doing the research abo...
by siamond
Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

PS. hm, the stats table isn't full up to date. Only 9 columns in there, not 10. The High Yield bonds are missing. Another thing to fix.
by siamond
Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Adding 'asset class' verbiage: yes, good point. Keeping note 4: I am not very attached to the CV metric per se, but showing the full table of stats is indeed useful. I would also suggest that note 3 is misplaced, it doesn't illustrate the sentence to which it is currently associated. Both notes (the...
by siamond
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

^^^^^^^^^^ (the Ladygeek trademarked quotation style!) Slowly converging... :wink: I am fine with the simpler top statement. Agreed. Pointing to the Bogleheads philosophy page, ok, why not. I'd argue that if the market timing page isn't clear, it should be improved, but ok, one thing at a time. Agre...
by siamond
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1119
Views: 627521

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

As discussed in this thread , the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX) will radically change its strategy in Sep-18 and no longer properly represent the precious metals and mining (PME) sector. We have such a PME data series in Simba, so we have to decide what to do from 2018 onward. Sta...
by siamond
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 77
Views: 8846

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Ok, I thought more about it. So far, in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet , we have a VGPMX data series from 1985 till now, as a proxy for the precious metals and mining (PME) industry sector. The main point of tracking it is that this allows analytical people to develop an opinion about the diversi...
by siamond
Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

I think it boils down to the time horizon. The Callan charts span 10 years, while the other analyses (Bogle, etc.) go much longer. One of the most important considerations for deciding on your investments is your time horizon. My concern is that investors will see "futility of short-term forecastin...
by siamond
Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Ladygeek, thank you for listening to my side of the argument. Reversion to the mean - I do see a vague trend towards reversion to the mean. Not to beat a dead horse, but let me just add one more thing about return-to-the-mean (after sleeping on it!). Take the example of Small-Cap Value (SCV). When l...
by siamond
Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

About the wiki page... It starts by the following statement that Taylor issued back in 2012: The Callan Table is the best visual information showing the importance of diversification, reversion-to-the-mean, and the impossibility of forecasting asset-class returns. It is a primary reason Bogleheads ...
by siamond
Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

The URL you've provided is a direct download. Can you supply a link which allows one to view the spreadsheet from Google Drive? This will allow the spreadsheet to be viewed directly in the wiki (if it's added later...). I could, but I'd rather not. I do the same with the Simba links. First, this sa...
by siamond
Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 77
Views: 8846

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Have you considered the Franklin Gold & Precious Metals fund (FKRCX)? [...] It goes back to 1969. Didn't know this one, thank you, this a good pointer. Its (loose) benchmark is FTSE Gold Mines index, which goes back to 1998. I'd rather stick to a fund from one of the largest companies though. Any m...
by siamond
Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 81957

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

columbia wrote:
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:09 pm
Increasingly on sale (especially EM); sometimes sale items are defects, mind you. ;)
And sometimes they are bargains! :wink:
by siamond
Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 6613

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Based on the last few posts, I issued a new revision of the spreadsheet. Rev1c 1. Settled on 'periodic table' terminology when referring to this type of table; renamed spreadsheet file accordingly 2. Added a dispersion graph in Define_Portfolios Same download link: https://drive.google.com/uc?id=1-E...