Search found 4275 matches

by siamond
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help finding chart concerning diversification and Japanese stock market crash
Replies: 4
Views: 270

Re: Help finding chart concerning diversification and Japanese stock market crash

I guess longinvest figured out the right answer (well done!), but the OP might also be interested in this modest write-up of mine about the Japanese crisis and the value of Int'l diversification, which triggered some lively discussion on the forum. Click on the link below. A short study of the recen...
by siamond
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing
Replies: 92
Views: 4193

Re: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/686-ignored-risks-of-factor-investing.html Thanks for sharing, this was a fairly well balanced article in its conclusions. I think they should have done much more to do justice to the topic, but the exploration of drawdowns as expected ...
by siamond
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 371
Views: 85835

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Roll call for the next meeting (Dec 15th, 10am, Lincoln Public Library). If you're planning to come (tentative or committed), please let me know (posting here, private message, e-mail, whatever) and please indicate how many seats you'll need at our (optional!) social lunch. Committed siamond Norton7...
by siamond
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 371
Views: 85835

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

JFlo86 wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:40 pm
Hi I am a new member to the group. I would not be able to attend the 15 December meet up but I would like to be notified of future meetings!
Welcome. Please check your private messages.
by siamond
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5108

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

I'm not sure what "compensates for the arithmetic/geometric issue" means , but arithmetic geometric mean inequality is a theorem, it's an absolute mathematical truth. Yes, of course, but one could change some of the input parameters... Think to the sustained over-performance of Small-Cap Value comp...
by siamond
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5108

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

I believe the OP's artificial game is an incorrect analogy and doesn't truly explain why most active managers under perform even if you backed out all costs. The stock market is not a random game with an arithmetic/geometric mean issue and volatility decay. The stock market is a reflection of the e...
by siamond
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5108

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

The active investors more concentrated bets are like the coin flip examples, where the average (arithmetic mean) of their holdings always exactly tied with the passive investors, but the geometric mean (and median) is increasingly lower as time goes on, and the distribution of the active investors'...
by siamond
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accumulating Developed Markets Ex-U.S. ETF or second best solution
Replies: 5
Views: 433

Re: Accumulating Developed Markets Ex-U.S. ETF or second best solution

VWRD is distributing so it's off the table. Perhaps I should think about IWDA. It's +60% US, which sounds a bit too high for me, although I'll admit my reasons for keeping more of my money "closer to home" are very unscientific. You should definitely have AsiaPac exposure or you're not properly div...
by siamond
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met
Replies: 14
Views: 3452

Re: Daniel Kahneman: Your Intuition Is Wrong, Unless These 3 Conditions Are Met

As a general rule, System 1's heuristics have evolved in the ancestral environments as adaptions to natural threats. When you encounter natural threats in the modern life, heuristics and corresponding actions are still appropriate. For example, you jump away from snakes, don't pick up unfamiliar mu...
by siamond
Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 371
Views: 85835

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Roll call for the next meeting (Dec 15th, 10am, Lincoln Public Library). If you're planning to come (tentative or committed), please let me know (posting here, private message, e-mail, whatever) and please indicate how many seats you'll need at our (optional!) social lunch. Committed siamond Norton7...
by siamond
Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Indeed, same for me. And even if you focus on funds as opposed to fund managers, then they get acquired or they merge or they close doors for other reasons having nothing to do with performance, etc. Or the index funds change their index, merge or otherwise disappear for some reason. Sith happens. ...
by siamond
Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

What percent of Managers beat the market before they charge their Fees? According to S&P research, about 20% of U.S. domestic equity funds beat the market before fees. It drops to 12% after fees. https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-spiva-institutional-scorecard-how-much-do-fees-aff...
by siamond
Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

However, I can tell who is a good accountant and a bad accountant. Its not a stretch that this applies to investors as well. Based on all the available evidence, it IS in fact a huge stretch. Yes, exactly. This is probably the only industry I know where smarts & talent & hard work do NOT seem to ma...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Yes, it does seem that we don't understand what the other is saying. It is the "accounting for survivorship bias" that skews the results to show indexing beating more and more active funds over longer periods of time. If you only looked at a single year, it is close to 50%, but over time more and m...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98484

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

samsdad wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:57 pm
Why? Why is the typical market portfolio “in these exercises” “just U.S. common stocks”?
Because there is not enough historical data outside the US - or at least, it was not available by the time those studies were performed.
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

The report states that after one year there was 96.76% survivorship (All Domestic Funds) At three years it goes to 83.27% survivorship That's not a "negligble" minority, and over longer periods the survivorship goes way down. It's not the winning the funds that are being shutdown. But again, the st...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Over a single one year period, the returns are closer to 50%, but the losers wind up not being able to continue. Over multiple year periods more losers wind up out of the the game and have no hope of recovery, or returning to a positive side of the distribution, which skews towards the Pareto distr...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

... HUH? This doesn't seem to make much sense. The answer should be around 50%. What am I missing? Probably some extra fees that the S&P Global report didn't account for? Maybe there are a few active participants consistently eating the lunch of many active participants with lesser skills/informati...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98484

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

this is what im trying to tease out. i know what a stock is, and a bond, and a commodity, and a painting. i get it. what i do not accept, is the premise that taking a passive market cap weighted indexing approach to stock investments somehow necessitates, or is otherwise philosophically inconsisten...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

This particular statistic isn't asset-weighted (the question was what percent of managers beat the market). An asset-weighted average would undoubtedly be more favorable to active managers: the asset-weighted average fund performance was 50bps to 100bps closer to the benchmark for this period, depe...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Example, there are ten managers in the large cap space, large cap returns returns 10% for a given amount of time. Eight managers return 9%, one manger returns 13% and one more returns 15%. 80% or 8 out of 10 underperform. Yeah, ok, sure, an average isn't a median, but the law of large numbers shoul...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5902

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

What percent of Managers beat the market before they charge their Fees? According to S&P research, about 20% of U.S. domestic equity funds beat the market before fees. It drops to 12% after fees. https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-spiva-institutional-scorecard-how-much-do-fees-aff...
by siamond
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My kid's retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 3375

Re: My kid's retirement

Just put the money in a 529 education plan, it will grow tax-free... The kid will need college way before needing retirement.
by siamond
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?
Replies: 40
Views: 3832

Re: What is the lowest 'safe' emergency fund we should have?

If you have a large taxable account with all equities but have some bonds in tax advantaged accounts and the market tanks as you need money, sell stocks in your taxable account and exchange bonds for stocks in tax advantaged. Your stock allocation in total remains whole and you likely get a nice ca...
by siamond
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1766

Re: DUH - Mistake on My Part

I made a small but very important mistake in my original posting. I transposed the stock/bond allocation, it should read 75% bonds 25% stock. Thank you for all you comments, no surprise that my ask would have been perplexing! Any different views now that I've corrected it? My current AA is 58% and ...
by siamond
Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Nullify Sequence of Returns Risk by Borrowing?
Replies: 31
Views: 1927

Re: Nullify Sequence of Returns Risk by Borrowing?

This has gotten pretty far off from my original (crazy idea) question. I appreciate everyone's advice and suggestions but the bottom line is that I need to cut expenses and create some additional income. Theres just no way around it. That is indeed the bottomline. I entered your numbers (or at leas...
by siamond
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1766

Re: The BIG question - Asset allocation in retirement

It is a little hard to understand a plan of going from 58/42 to 40/60 to 75/25... Notably without much context. OP, maybe could you elaborate on your line of reasoning? Maybe start by telling us more about your primary financial goals and primary financial fears? Then explain how you go from such go...
by siamond
Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads blog and Bogleheads Facebook page
Replies: 2
Views: 512

Bogleheads blog and Bogleheads Facebook page

I just read this blog article about the Bogleheads Facebook page. https://finpage.blog/2018/12/01/interview-with-kathleen-ryan-bogleheads-org-facebook-page/ Er... I had no idea the group had such a page on Facebook. Since 2008! With nearly 10,000 followers! That's cool. Well done. https://www.facebo...
by siamond
Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2203

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?

I guess I will go for the hedged version of the bond ETF. However since I don't know what my "home currency" will be between EURO and USD, would it be wise to invest 50% in the hedged Euro (AGGH) and 50% in the hedged USD (AGGU) ? You are making it WAY too complicated. How will you evaluate how you...
by siamond
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98484

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Yeah, depending on how you count (consumer spending vs GDP etc) the US is only about 25-30% of the world economy. source: https://www.ubs.com/content/dam/WealthManagementAmericas/documents/thinking-strategically-about-emerging-markets.pdf This seems like a very informative report, thanks for sharin...
by siamond
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2203

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:57 am
Also it is probably cheaper to move 20k EUR at one go and exchange it, than to do that 2k x 10 ?
That is a very good point! As somebody who had to do multiple piecemeal currency exchanges in the past year (due to an inheritance), I totally agree...
by siamond
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2203

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?

But what is the best between: - converting the 20k euro at one go to USD, and invest in AGGG or AGGU - converting the 20K euro to USD a bit every month, let's say 1 or 2K, and invest in AGGG or AGGU - keeping everything in Euro not to play with the FX, and investing in AGGH straight. However during...
by siamond
Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2203

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?

Currency hedging makes sense for people who accumulate in a large stable country and implicitly assume that they will retire in the same country. Like all the US-located posters on this thread. The OP is different. He's French, he's 28, he's an adventurous expatriate in a small and dynamic country i...
by siamond
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635338

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Here are two example of the new chart. The point is to analyze the distribution of returns for a given portfolio during a given time interval and compare to a benchmark portfolio. The first example shows the distribution of one-year nominal returns between 1970 and 2017. You can see that the first p...
by siamond
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635338

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

A new update to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet is now available, click here to download it. Feedback welcome. Rev17e: 1. Added new distribution of returns chart in Analyze_Portfolio 2. Fixed bug in Perpetual Withdrawal Rate cycles formula in Lazy_Portfolios (row 125, percentile cell was improperl...
by siamond
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 204
Views: 45917

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

A cool write-up from Tyler about the "baseline return": https://portfoliocharts.com/2018/11/24/averages-beverages-and-the-benefits-of-baseline-returns/#more-25297 The technical definition of the baseline return is that it’s the 15th percentile inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) fo...
by siamond
Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3357

Re: Am I too risk averse?

I’m a bit confused with the difference between VUSXX (my current choice), VFIRX and VSBSX . They all look very similar to me. What are your preferences? VUSXX is a money market fund, the equivalent of a savings account. You really shouldn't have money in there for more than a few weeks. Both VFIRX ...
by siamond
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Greatest Hits
Replies: 27
Views: 3637

Re: Bogleheads Greatest Hits

The moderators greatest hit: "this thread has run its course".

Nedsaid, may I point out that this thread is non actionable? :D :wink: :twisted:
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to ratchet up equity allocation?
Replies: 22
Views: 1319

Re: How to ratchet up equity allocation?

So, I disagree with your argument that OP is 35 years old and he should be 75/25. I wasn't expecting you to change your mind... And you will not change my assessment either... And I am not going to explain why, because none of that matters. Both of us are trying to help, while speaking out of the f...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2203

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: AGGG, AGGU or AGGH?

ICH wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:22 am
I see no point in currency hedging in your situation. I would leave it unhedged.
Yup, agreed.
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to ratchet up equity allocation?
Replies: 22
Views: 1319

Re: How to ratchet up equity allocation?

It does seems a little silly for a 35 yrs old with your personal circumstances to use a 65/35 allocation, at least from a non-behavioral standpoint. From a purely numerical perspective, there is no question that you'd be better off with a 75/25 allocation (that is, based on the historical record, US...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel To Cuba - Tips
Replies: 17
Views: 1866

Re: Travel To Cuba - Tips

protagonist wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:13 pm
I have been to Cuba about 5-6 times between 2009 and 2016. [...]
What an impressive post. Thanks a lot for sharing. Been playing with the idea of traveling out there for a while...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 73
Views: 11162

Re: Worst investing year ever....

Here is another short-write on the same topic, quoting the same actual source, a Wall St Journal article which is hidden behind their usual firewall. But... this short write-up includes a significantly larger extract from the WSJ... For whatever it's worth... https://www.dollarcollapse.com/short-eve...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3357

Re: Am I too risk averse?

michaeljmroger wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:09 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:03 pm
Do you have any other income?
I do. My annual gross salary is about $300k.
Missed that. So... do you plan to retire soon or not?

If you do not, then sorry, I misunderstood your plan, and I should have recommended munis for bonds in taxable...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3357

Re: Am I too risk averse?

Definitely not short-term. Either Intermediate-term or total-bonds. You're in for the long run, you need those bonds to return something... Personally, I like VBILX as a balanced fund between treasuries and investment grade corporates (this maps well to Jack Bogle's recommendation, which makes comp...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3357

Re: Am I too risk averse?

A very simple portfolio could be 40% stocks (total-world), 30% total-bonds (and/or CDs), 30% TIPS. This would hedge your bets much more efficiently than the portfolio you described to begin with. Risk is multi-faceted... How would you allocate the bonds? Would you go with something like VFIRX or wo...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3357

Re: Am I too risk averse?

Thank you! Just to make sure, you’re recommending 30% of my entire portfolio in TIPS, not 30% of the bonds, right? Yes, indeed. A very simple portfolio could be 40% stocks (total-world), 30% total-bonds (and/or CDs), 30% TIPS. This would hedge your bets much more efficiently than the portfolio you ...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3357

Re: Am I too risk averse?

OP, you're not "too risk averse". On the contrary, you're taking an insane amount of concentrated risk. A sustained reoccurrence of inflation would totally devastate your portfolio (and your emotions too). Consider that post WW-II, treasury bonds lost some 40% in real value for decades, nearly reco...
by siamond
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3357

Re: Am I too risk averse?

OP, you're not "too risk averse". On the contrary, you're taking an insane amount of concentrated risk. A sustained reoccurrence of inflation would totally devastate your portfolio (and your emotions too). Consider that post WW-II, treasury bonds lost some 40% in real value for decades, nearly recov...
by siamond
Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 371
Views: 85835

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

citywriter wrote:
Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:30 pm
I'm new to this forum and would appreciate notices on these meetings. Thanks!
Da5id wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:09 am
Please add me as well.
Guys, please check your private messages (see upper right corner of the forum's display, right by your user name).