Search found 3881 matches

by siamond
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: E*Trade eliminates commissions on ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 294

Re: E*Trade eliminates commissions on ETFs

That's cool. Now I can withdraw retirement money from my taxable account without spending a dime. That is, before taxes hit, of course. Will not make much of a difference, but this is very satisfying. :happy
by siamond
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Risk and Reward
Replies: 10
Views: 611

Re: Revisiting Risk and Reward

Is it me or does he seem "on the fence a bit" between VWR and SWR (4%). . . ??? LOL, yes, I am much more in favor of 'VWR' as you call it... As I stated in the article, we have only one life, better take advantage of it. Terminology is treacherous. Some people define SWR as applying to a single ret...
by siamond
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Risk and Reward
Replies: 10
Views: 611

Re: Revisiting Risk and Reward

For those of you interested, I just published a follow-up to the first article, extending the investigation by taking the perspective of investors located in various developed countries (a form of ‘out of sample’ testing).

https://finpage.blog/2018/06/20/revisit ... rd-part-2/
by siamond
Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 150
Views: 10419

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simplicity 10 Stay the course I am in agreement with all of those. Where I might hav...
by siamond
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 335
Views: 70562

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting is scheduled on Saturday Jun 23rd 2018 : 10am to noon, followed by (optional) social lunch. If you guys & gals could let me know if you're planning to come (committed or tentative) by posting on this thread, or sending me a private message, or sending me an e-mail, this...
by siamond
Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Risk and Reward
Replies: 10
Views: 611

Re: Revisiting Risk and Reward

The one comment, really actually positive, but could be taken as negative and shouldn't, is that these results have been well evident for a long time to anyone that would look. The first comment that comes to mind in discussing risk is that retirement ruin is the one risk that does not behave the s...
by siamond
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3602

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

What I've done is assume there is an interaction between standard investment vehicles (stocks and bonds) and inflation such that sensible investing in stocks and bonds will, over time, keep pace with or beat inflation to produce a real return. A SAFE bet as in "S"WR would be to assume investing kee...
by siamond
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Risk and Reward
Replies: 10
Views: 611

Revisiting Risk and Reward

A topic that I have been chewing on for quite a while (risk and reward for retirees), then the dots finally connected... I ended up writing a couple of articles about it on the Bogleheads blog. Feedback welcome. https://finpage.blog/2018/06/17/revisiting-risk-and-reward/ https://finpage.blog/2018/06...
by siamond
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 335
Views: 70562

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Could you add me to the distribution list and chalk me up as "tentative" for Saturday? I'll most likely have family obligations, but if they fall through I might be able to check things out. If I am able to go, I doubt I'd be able to stay for the lunch afterwards. Geospatial, please check your priv...
by siamond
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3602

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

I do something similar, including the expected returns model, but: - I would be more conservative about life expectancy, the actuarial life expectancy is a probabilistic midpoint, and you don't want to expose yourself to longevity risk (notably if you're healthy and have parents or grandparents who...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% of international developed to small/mid?
Replies: 11
Views: 1038

Re: 100% of international developed to small/mid?

Does anyone do something similar? And is there some key issue I am missing that might come back to bite me? Certainly I could do something in between, say 50% in large developed, 50% in small, but again, I fail to see how large developed adds much to a portfolio. If you want some numbers, here are ...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3461

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

If we just stick to a simple definition of "small" consistent with CRSP indices, then I ran the numbers recently in this blog entry . Here is the corresponding Telltale chart (i.e. cumulative growth relative to Total-Market's cumulative growth). Click to see a bigger version. The case for (US) small...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3602

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

What we’re trying to do here is to calculate a safe withdrawal rate without reliance on historical market data. For those who do not believe past returns are predictive of future returns over a retirement period, your approach fails by definition. I find it more comforting to ask myself what is the...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3602

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

However, I will point out one fallacy of your proposed approach. You have deterministically set your retirement as a 30-year (or some other pre-specified period). No one knows how long they will live, therefore no one knows how long they will be retired. That is exactly right. Those so-called LMP a...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3602

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

I think Wade Pfau did SWR simulations using a portfolio that was 50% equities and 50% bonds, each split half-and-half between US and non-US assets. My memory of the findings is that the inflationary period of the 1970’s was more challenging for the all-US portfolio and the deflationary period of th...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3602

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

However, I will point out one fallacy of your proposed approach. You have deterministically set your retirement as a 30-year (or some other pre-specified period). No one knows how long they will live, therefore no one knows how long they will be retired. That is exactly right. Those so-called LMP a...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 3602

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

So a worked example Current balance: $1 million Portfolio: 60% world index, (E10/P)-[fund charges] = 3.5%, 40% bond fund guesstimated return 1% real. Expected real return: 60%*3.5%+40%*1% = 2.5% Anticipated real return: 50% * 2.5% = 1.25% Current actuarial life expectancy: 30 years This years incom...
by siamond
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 335
Views: 70562

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Amar9 wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:37 pm
Iam a new member and i would like to attend the meeting if possible. For some reason i couldnt PM you, may be because i just joined.
Amar, please check your private messages. And... welcome to the club! :wink:
by siamond
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 335
Views: 70562

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

A point of clarification. Meeting details (location, agenda, etc) are communicated via a private distribution list, e-mailed in blind copy. If a new member wishes to be added to such list, please contact me by PM.
by siamond
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 335
Views: 70562

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting is scheduled on Saturday Jun 23rd 2018 : 10am to noon, followed by (optional) social lunch. If you guys & gals could let me know if you're planning to come (committed or tentative) by posting on this thread, or sending me a private message, or sending me an e-mail, thi...
by siamond
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

I try to estimate a trend using a weighted average of the last 50 years and the post-2000 results. This year, that yields 4.55% for equity, 4.53% for IT bonds, and 0.38% for ST bonds. The hope is to get the overall trend -- but inform it with more recent results so that my forward look is closer to...
by siamond
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

If I am reading the graph right, it looks like we are about to level off for a long time at a very low rate of real return for bonds. That has some implications for retirement planning and bequest motives, no? In my personal financial planning, I'm resigned to low real bond yields for the foreseeab...
by siamond
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

On the actionability front, I am wondering if that 50/50 stock to bond guidance should be modified. I am looking at that equity and bond graph and wonder if it is really a good idea to have 50% bonds. My IPS has me on a glidepath to a 50/50 allocation (over the next 15 years). No, I don't plan on l...
by siamond
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

Steady GDP Growth --> Steady Corporate Earnings --> Steady Stock Returns Well. If everything is (was) steady, there is (was) return-to-the-mean, because this is the definition of steady. This is a circular argument, I am afraid. For real interest rates on the other hand, on the scale of centuries, ...
by siamond
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

When I made this statement, I had in mind the finer-grain trajectory of what happened in the past, in term of decades , not centuries. Where bonds had flat periods of time, upward periods of time, downwards period of time, with little rhyme or reason. And I defined consistency as return-to-the-mean...
by siamond
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

One could say that bonds displayed a form of short-term consistency (low volatility, at least in nominal value), and no long-term consistency. I dunno, seems like bond returns do have a fairly consistent long term pattern to me -- downward... Unfortunately, the trend is slow enough that I don't thi...
by siamond
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

https://i.imgur.com/rZTlZZk.jpg [...] Thoughts on this? This chart got really struck in my mind. It is compelling. It captures something that became clear to me after doing quite some backtesting. In the past, there was no such thing as return to the mean for the bonds market. It just went through ...
by siamond
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4938

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

SimpleGift wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:48 pm
Just for fun, a copy of the first stock certificate ever issued — a share in the Dutch East India Company in 1606 (known in Dutch as the Verenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie or VOC)
That is very cool! Thank you for sharing!
by siamond
Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 335
Views: 70562

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting is scheduled on Saturday Jun 23rd 2018 : 10am to noon, followed by (optional) social lunch. If you guys & gals could let me know if you're planning to come (committed or tentative) by posting on this thread, or sending me a private message, or sending me an e-mail, this...
by siamond
Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing when someone else gets all dividends
Replies: 80
Views: 4736

Re: Investing when someone else gets all dividends

Let's say our time horizon for the trust is 10-15 years. All three owners of the principal have at least 30 years until retirement. We want to make investment decisions that: Allows the principal in the account to grow without any dividend reinvestment. Creates a reasonable amount of dividend incom...
by siamond
Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Life in retirement - what did you do today?
Replies: 193
Views: 15834

Re: Life in retirement - what did you do today?

Been early retired for 4 years now -- geez, ALREADY? WHERE DID THE TIME GO??? This morning, I quietly read e-mails, BH forum and news while slowly eating breakfast. Then I went to the gym and worked out with a friend. She has a bit of an issue at home, I'll take time to think on how to help. We plan...
by siamond
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Global Market Portfolio, 1959-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1564

Re: The Global Market Portfolio, 1959-2015

Yet another great paper identified by SimpleGift. Thank you for sharing. One specific number intrigued me. In the paper, in table 2, they indicated that for the GBB category (Government Bonds Broad), real returns only suffered from a 17% max drawdown between 1960 and 2015. Well, in the US, as we kno...
by siamond
Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 335
Views: 70562

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting is scheduled on Saturday Jun 23rd 2018 : 10am to noon, followed by (optional) social lunch. If you guys & gals could let me know if you're planning to come (committed or tentative) by posting on this thread, or sending me a private message, or sending me an e-mail, this...
by siamond
Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VASGX with 25-30 year investment plan. Looking for advice. [Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth]
Replies: 31
Views: 2372

Re: VASGX with 25-30 year investment plan. Looking for advice. [Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth]

Thank you for your response. Can I ask why you feel I could skip international bonds compared to US bonds? I am not really for or against them. There was a large thread on international bonds and the consensus was the return was lower and they don't provide much diversification from what I remember...
by siamond
Sun Jun 03, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why have a savings account at all?
Replies: 153
Views: 10517

Re: Why have a savings account at all?

As I wrote in that same post "An emergency does not even mean decreasing the equities held ( sell equities in a taxable account, and replace them by exchanging fixed income to equities in tax-advantaged accounts ) ". So if the stock market had been down I could have kept the same amount in equities...
by siamond
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why have a savings account at all?
Replies: 153
Views: 10517

Re: Why have a savings account at all?

1. I don't mean not having a checking account. Just not a savings account. 2. My credit cards provide more than enough liquidity for the few days it could take to liquidate my investments. If I need a cash advance, this strategy could cost me but not much and it's rare so I'd still probably come ou...
by siamond
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VASGX with 25-30 year investment plan. Looking for advice. [Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth]
Replies: 31
Views: 2372

Re: VASGX with 25-30 year investment plan. Looking for advice. [Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth]

I came from the same camp as you but there are many studies that indicate lumpsum investing wins more than 70% of times than DCA. This topic is widely discussed here - search lumpsum vs DCA. Gist is do even though lumpsum is better, DCA feel more psychologically secure and better. Yes, this is exac...
by siamond
Tue May 29, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 12772

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

guyesmith wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 2:15 pm
Theory: The Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
[...]
Not looking for personal advice, just tossing out an idea to see what everyone thinks.
OP, you might be interested to take a look at this three-part study on this very topic. This was published on the Bogleheads blog.
by siamond
Fri May 25, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1112
Views: 614606

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

thank you for this fine work! I was reading a thread about merriman that included this link to published returns of his portfolio: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/UBH-FTYAA-Tables-50-50-0-2017-Returns-Update.pdf when I change the starting year to 1970 in the lazy portfolio tab, ...
by siamond
Wed May 23, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 14
Views: 2559

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

I don't care much about having such option in the annuity, but if this is an indication of Vanguard preparing for a regular low cost index fund centered on Global Bonds, that I would be interested for my regular investments. It appears that it was an indication after all....Vanguard is now launchin...
by siamond
Mon May 21, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 437
Views: 84953

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Personally, I think that PMT based schemes are "the best". They are transparent in their construction. They don't rely on historical fitting of data. They are easy to understand. They are flexible. They are easy to adjust for personal circumstances or tastes. (Maybe you need to plan a 45 year retir...
by siamond
Sun May 20, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20195

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

US Stocks right now have a forward earnings yield of around 6%. Add in around 2% in earnings growth (tagged to real GDP growth) and that is almost an 8% real return. That's not really that bad. I am afraid you are confusing earning yield and dividend yield. Expected (real) returns for the US stock ...
by siamond
Sun May 20, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 9184

Re: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation

Volatility smoothing is the only reason one should own bonds. The rebalancing bonus is a myth. If you actually do the math, the drag from the bonds outweighs any bonus you get from rebalancing into stocks “on sale”. In other words, bonds, for a young accumulator, are there to insure against behavio...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20195

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

So what should we invest in besides stocks? Direct real estate - rental properties. What about REITs - U.S. and International? US REITs were quite correlated in the past with small and mid size value stocks (SCV/MCV), while returning less premium. I see little reason for Int'l REITs to behave other...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20195

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

US Stocks right now have a forward earnings yield of around 6%. Add in around 2% in earnings growth (tagged to real GDP growth) and that is almost an 8% real return. That's not really that bad. I am afraid you are confusing earning yield and dividend yield. Expected (real) returns for the US stock ...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement
Replies: 37
Views: 2673

Re: Having trouble figuring out expected expenses in retirement

All your comments are helping me think this through, thank you. Any more tips from those close or retired? Many people already gave *THE* primary advice. Get in a habit of carefully tracking your expenses every month. Keep doing it until (and after) you retire. It's like brushing your teeth, it's a...
by siamond
Sat May 19, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story
Replies: 38
Views: 3689

Re: Bogle featured in Barrons cover story

For whatever reason, I keep receiving paper copies of Barron's although I never subscribed... Usually, it goes straight in the recycling can, but this time, I read an article from beginning to end (yes, the one about Bogle, of course). Jack's picture is on the cover, by the way, which made me smile ...
by siamond
Fri May 18, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Mechanics
Replies: 17
Views: 1474

Re: Asset Allocation Mechanics

BUT, like for you, retirement is coming into focus as a reality and not just some future "ideal". So, my present mind set is now more similar to yours (relating to not re-living 2008) as expressed. What i worry about a bit is that the basis for such thinking is really psychological and not necessar...
by siamond
Thu May 17, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Mechanics
Replies: 17
Views: 1474

Re: Asset Allocation Mechanics

We are out of balance asset allocation wise. [...] Some facts: [...] roughly 80/20 stock to bond If I understand well, you are currently at 80/20, this wasn't really planned, and you'd like to rebalance to... something else. Trouble is you didn't define what is this 'something else', so it is hard ...
by siamond
Thu May 17, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5918

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

1. From the first two plots, the risk-premium for equities seems to significantly shrink after around 1955. In other words, the CAGR seems to go from 1% average to ~0.5% average while the stddev differential remains very consistent (~2%). I'm not sure if this is an anomaly with the dataset being us...