Search found 3562 matches

by siamond
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: [New forum request] International investing and US non-resident section
Replies: 27
Views: 2281

Re: [New forum request] International investing and US non-resident section

Can you please create section for non-resident issues and general international investing? There are quite a few threads, so it'd be nice to have a section to have them all together and in general to be a bit more inviting forum towards the international investor community. This seems like a great ...
by siamond
Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 109
Views: 8375

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

You are basically arguing for a deductive approach rather than an inductive one. I agree that the deductive approach as you've laid it out is more convincing, but the inductive approach is perfectly plausible as well IF the pattern can be replicated with other data. With CAPE, this has indeed been ...
by siamond
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I doubt that many of the extremely early retirement crowd are factoring in that much cushion into their spending, but many of them could reenter the workforce if needed to supplement their spending needs as well. Yes, many possibilities for an early retiree. Even if not 'extreme' (I early-retired a...
by siamond
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

But if you're planning for a 40 year retirement, 4% might not be overly conservative. I keep hearing this from folks, and I can't figure out why the "SWR" for 40 years has to be significantly lower than for 30 years. There's lot of feeling out there, but no real hard data. 30 year retirements at 4%...
by siamond
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: why emergency savings?
Replies: 42
Views: 3629

Re: why emergency savings?

Dedicated emergency funds are for young people with little savings and limited credit, that's it. I never saw the point of a dedicated EF, otherwise. Letting months of living expenses take dust in a savings account or a money market account runs contrary to everything I do as a careful investor. In ...
by siamond
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Perhaps I missed it, but with all the talk of using 4-5% of yearly portfolio balance, is there any backtesting on this approach? How well did it hold up? I understand that the portfolio balance can never go to zero with this method, but how did the annual payouts hold up over time? How did the port...
by siamond
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6454

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

AThe point of all of this is... I have yet to se anything in a paper, plan or article that address the spending curve associated with an active while you can retirement. Actuarially based VPW doesn't do it [...] You bring up a very real problem with several of the withdrawal strategies, including t...
by siamond
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6454

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

As I mentioned in another post, Bengen seems completely oblivious to international returns. It is not obvious to me that adding international stocks will offer a better sequence of returns going forward. I think the first time I invested in international was about 1990 and still do. But I'd not exp...
by siamond
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6454

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Also, it is not clear to me what kind of stocks he used in 1994. The paper just says common stocks. And he uses date from Ibbotson Associates, "Stock, Bonds, Bills and Inflation: 1992 Yearbook" (Chicago: Ibbotson Associates, 1993). . I'm pretty sure SBBI in 1992 was U.S. stocks. Yes, it was. As I m...
by siamond
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

While looking for something else, I stumbled upon an article from W. Bengen that discusses very exactly the topic of the OP (the 2000 cohort). Here it is: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/is-4-5---still-safe-27153.html Unfortunately, the author is now in a frame of mind of looking at an AA involving a go...
by siamond
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

So then the question is who believes in this enough to retire with a 5.5% SWR?:) That being said I am not sure I follow what they are doing with the Monte Carlo simulation as I haven't read the paper but it seems like a scheme that is likely to give worse results than historical ones. Not me. This ...
by siamond
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6454

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

[...]Then sometime later in 1999, I stumbled on the Retire Early Home Page . This page talked Retirement Withdrawals and the Trinity Study, which was published in 1998. It's the first place I heard about the 4% Rule. And he had studies that showed that 10, 8, 7 even 5 percent didn't always work. Ho...
by siamond
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 105
Views: 17516

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

I reiterate...there is no sound basis to predict anything about the economy of 2067 based on our paltry 100 or so years of decent data. This, I agree. Although the broad trend would seem to be a restoration of 1700-- that China and India would be 2 of the world's largest powers, if not the largest ...
by siamond
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 300
Views: 59682

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Hi siamond, I'm wondering if you can add me to the email list for the meetup on March 31. I'm a long-time lurker but newly registered and can't PM you yet. Thanks! Another lurker/new registrant here. Could I please get added to the email list for receiving information for the 3/31/18 Metro Boston m...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 34
Views: 4030

Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

SimpleGift wrote:
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:34 pm
One useful pattern, in my view, is to align each year on the S&P 500 return [...]
That's a cool idea, SimpleGift. It would be interesting to have a tool allowing to generate a similar chart with an arbitrary portfolio of reference (kind of generalizing your idea of using S&P 500 as an anchor).
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Questions about the "SWR" computation in the "Analyze_Portfolio" sheet of 'Backtest...rev17a' (chart starting in Line 235) 1) Are the annual withdrawals assumed to be increased by the rate of inflation each year? For instance, if rate calculated for 1970 was 4.5% and one took $45,000 from a $1 mill...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

SAFEMAX can only be known retrospectively, once all 30 years have passed. I would love to know where I could get a running SAFEMAX percentage for a 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, and 80/20 portfolio. Here are two possible ways: 1. If you're spreadsheet-inclined, use the latest update to the Simba spreadsheet...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

The official Simba spreadsheet v17a update is now available. You can download it by clicking on this link . Feedback welcome. Rev17a : 1. Spreadsheet updated for 2017 returns and latest Expense Ratios (ER) 2. Inflation and some historical returns 2017 are only an educated guess for now, waiting for ...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I seem to recall that for a global, cap-weighted 60/40 portfolio (I don't recall the historic period investigated), the SWR was around 3.5%. Based on the data you've provided, it seems that the weighted average would probably be around there. You can find more geographically diversified scenarios i...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Of course, investors in some of those situations would undoubtedly have resorted to back-up solutions, e.g. annuities, TIPS ladder, shrink withdrawals, part-time work, eat cat food, etc. I am actually far from being convinced that Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' will have actually made it by...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Bill Bengen wrote this in 1994 well before 2000. http://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf I am well aware. But read his article carefully, Bill Bengen didn't specifically study a 60/40 portfolio, nor did he establish it as common wisdom like Peter Bernstein did in 2002, which stayed drilled in...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Has anybody ever done a SWR analysis for Japanese investors? Yup. Here is a chart I assembled for a 3-part blog article I wrote a while ago. Here is the link to Part 2 , where this chart was included. This is for a 70/30 Asset Allocation, entirely domestic, over the 1970-2016 time period, no ancien...
by siamond
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Bill Bengen wrote this in 1994 well before 2000. http://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf I am well aware. But read his article carefully, Bill Bengen didn't specifically study a 60/40 portfolio, nor did he establish it as common wisdom like Peter Bernstein did in 2002, which stayed drilled in...
by siamond
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 333
Views: 30163

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

First, let's assume that they used a 60/40 portfolio, where half of their equities were in VTSMX (U.S. stocks) and half in VGTSX (international equities), and the bonds were in VBMFX (total U.S. bond market). Let's also assume that their starting portfolio was $1M. Their withdrawals occur at year e...
by siamond
Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2623

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

For those contemplating a early retirement, such as in their 40's, ERN (Early Retirement Now) is a must read. Not that you have to agree with his conclusions, but you should at least be aware of how different allocations have fared in the past. It's also useful reading for others looking at their r...
by siamond
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2623

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

I don't like a glidepath because I depend on Firecalc which assumes a more constant asset allocation at all times. So 60/40 forever (or close to it) seems better to me from start to finish. If you use a glidepath/target fund, it seems to me like you are violating the Firecalc/Trinity Study assumpti...
by siamond
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2623

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

Rather than doing the "glidepath shuffle", perhaps one should consider the "two-step tango" portfolio strategy, or something like that. Thinking of the glidepath as a strategy for systematically reducing portfolio risk over time seems to be an illusion to me. As other posters indicated, the glidepa...
by siamond
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?
Replies: 94
Views: 3955

Re: Are Password Managers Really Necessary?

Yes. Absolutely. I have used password managers for over ten years. Absolutely cannot imagine not using one. How do you keep track of dozens (or in my case, > hundred) of credentials (username, password, answers to secret questions, account numbers) in a secure way? I'll answer your question with a ...
by siamond
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

The ability to tailor inflation is intriguing. I could see that being useful not only for the chained-cpi issue but also because (so I've heard) many bogleheads report personal inflation much lower than cpi-u. So the more frugal folks could subtract out an adjuster to get a more realistic report of...
by siamond
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Arumph, while running some consistency tests, I just noticed that Morningstar changed their mind about the NAV at the end of 2017 for two Vanguard funds (VTIBX and VDAIX). Not by much, but they did change the data between Jan 3rd and Jan 5th... I now remember that I had a similar issue last year. I...
by siamond
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Wonder if spreadsheet should switch from cpi-u going forward? Under the previous tax law, inflation is measured by the consumer price index for all urban consumers, also known as the CPI-U, which essentially tracks the cost of goods and services that affect the typical household. The new law adopts...
by siamond
Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Arumph, while running some consistency tests, I just noticed that Morningstar changed their mind about the NAV at the end of 2017 for two Vanguard funds (VTIBX and VDAIX). Not by much, but they did change the data between Jan 3rd and Jan 5th... I now remember that I had a similar issue last year. I'...
by siamond
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.
Replies: 22
Views: 2600

Re: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.

Hi vitaflo, could you please try to also figure out tab1a? Meaning this kind of display: here . Thanks! Found the answer to my own question. This is actually the same Web page as the regular performance page. It's just that the corresponding data isn't displayed by the browser when the page is quer...
by siamond
Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.
Replies: 22
Views: 2600

Re: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.

After some digging, it looks like Vanguard is loading those tabs with straight HTML. So I watched the page load in the Dev Inspector Tools and found the corresponding url for each tab that you can use for an ImportXML call. Here they are: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/JSP/Funds/VGITab/VGIFundOve...
by siamond
Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Relative Tax Efficiency
Replies: 53
Views: 12486

Re: 2016 Relative Tax Efficiency

Cool. I'm looking forward to the updates. PS. if you want to play around, you can try to scrape the Vanguard and iShares Web pages to automate the whole thing... This thread was quite seminal for me to get the hang of it. See notably the posts from Kevin M. The trouble is those techniques do not sca...
by siamond
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Relative Tax Efficiency
Replies: 53
Views: 12486

Re: 2016 Relative Tax Efficiency

Just discovered this. Great work, Triceratop. May I suggest a couple of basic things: 1. update the numbers for (end of) 2017 :wink: 2. color code the cells to better distinguish what are user-customizable cells and what should be left as is 3. add a separate tab with explanations and instructions, ...
by siamond
Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Effects of extreme cold weather
Replies: 107
Views: 9619

Re: Effects of extreme cold weather

AAA wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:42 pm
What new or unexpected things are happening to you?
The stock market went up and up in the past couple of days! I've never been that wealthy! :greedy
by siamond
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Here is a solid draft of the Simba v17a update to come, including the 2017 returns for all regular funds being tracked. It also includes a few minor fixes, and a couple of new metrics and charts. Some numbers (e.g. inflation) are not final. If some of the regular users could give it a quick go, and ...
by siamond
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Looking for Boston MA Financial Planner]
Replies: 4
Views: 578

Re: [Looking for Boston MA Financial Planner]

Hi folks, I’m seeking metro Boston recommendation for a financial planner. I am a new Metro Boston member in a somewhat analogous situation. [...] Please note that I can't give this service, or the planners he recommended, the "Siskel and Ebert" two thumbs up, as I am only in the middle of the proc...
by siamond
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Studying the VDVIX/VTMGX matter a little more, I actually found out that there is a simpler way to proceed. Although VDVIX's inception date is listed by Vanguard as 12/19/2013, the corresponding data series on Morningstar starts on 08/17/1999, which is the inception date of VTMGX. Here is a chart co...
by siamond
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Let's come back to the VTMGX/VDVIX topic, as I had planned to address it for the first Simba update of 2018. First, here is the full context, and the proposal that was made when we discussed the topic a few months ago. After looking more into this spreadsheet, I have a couple of questions/observatio...
by siamond
Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backtesting is scary!
Replies: 10
Views: 1158

Re: Backtesting is scary!

Assuming all your savings are in tax-sheltered accounts, so you can modify your investments at will without tax implications... Let me suggest you simplify your life, and use the Vanguard LifeStrategy Income Fund (VASIX) . This is a 20/80 (20% equities, 80% bonds) fund of funds, with automatic rebal...
by siamond
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 285
Views: 32762

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Just finished binge watching Longmire. While the ending is satisfying, I am sad it is over. Yes, good ending. I like it when a series ends with clarity instead of leaving it open to interpretation (think Sopranos). My wife and I hated the ending... Most of it made no sense to us, didn't match our p...
by siamond
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Little riddle about the new year (2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 385

Little riddle about the new year (2018)

Easy question for you math geeks... Why will 2018 be not once, but twice a prime time? :sharebeer
by siamond
Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 222
Views: 37328

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

I am curious, since I started this thread, if thoughts and perspectives have evolved or changed regarding International Bonds as an asset class and the strategy as recommended by Vanguard investment experts (i.e. 30% of fixed income allocation). Actually, yes. Originally, I just couldn't see the po...
by siamond
Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I preserve parents’ risky portfolio? Or “disobey” them?
Replies: 74
Views: 4894

Re: Should I preserve parents’ risky portfolio? Or “disobey” them?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:44 pm
There are plenty of good reasons to change their portfolio. But "Boglehead forum posters are afraid of volatility" isn't a good one.
Now THAT is a pitch perfect quote. Exactly right.
by siamond
Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I preserve parents’ risky portfolio? Or “disobey” them?
Replies: 74
Views: 4894

Re: Should I preserve parents’ risky portfolio? Or “disobey” them?

Power of attorney? If my kids changed my AA from 100% stocks to 30%, I'd be pretty upset. I would be quite apoplectic too... Although it isn't quite clear if the current portfolio composition does match the desires of the owners. The discussion about risks (notably volatility) is silly, with such a...
by siamond
Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 589285

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Folks, I'll do the 2018 update soon - probably 1st week of January. In my working version, I added full SWR (and PWR) computation, having found a way to compute those metrics in a very concise manner. Which lead me to add a new chart in Analyze_Portfolio, with various metrics (nominal CAGR, real CAG...
by siamond
Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?
Replies: 45
Views: 3728

Re: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?

I didn't tinker with my high-level principles (e.g. stocks vs. bonds, domestic vs. International). Yeah, ok, a bit about stocks vs. bonds, but not that much. I did tinker with the smaller stuff (e.g. tilts). I don't think I was driven by current market conditions (although emotions do have a sneaky ...
by siamond
Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chained CPI - how does it work?
Replies: 30
Views: 2098

Re: Chained CPI - how does it work?

Hm. I have this intuition that the geometric mean is helpful because of the commutative properties of multiplication, hence better capturing the impact of substitution, notably when some data isn't readily available (e.g. latest market shares), but... I have troubles to put that in numbers. Last cal...