Search found 3945 matches

by siamond
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 9
Views: 1469

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rate

Here is a chart of the perpetual withdrawal rates that would have kept a portfolio unchanged, in real terms, after a retirement period of 30 years. This compares a US-only 60/40 allocation to a 40/60 allocation. The years on the X axis are the starting years of periods of 30 years. This accounts for...
by siamond
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7347

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

As to currency risk, don't forget it goes both ways... By definition any risk can go both ways. A "risk" that could not cut both ways is called a liability, not a risk. You are absolutely right. And this was PRECISELY the point I was trying to make. Currency risk is not a liability. Sometimes it go...
by siamond
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8474

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Has this couple 'won the game'? It depends on your perspective, but I'd say that most Bogleheads wouldn't be too pleased with this position. [...] My point is that if one is truly confident that they have indeed 'won the game', there's usually little reason to 'quit playing'. Yes, of course, you're...
by siamond
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2371

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

One thought would be to chart the forward returns from a certain date for given allocation. So, for the particular month you would calculate the returns of a given weight portfolio for the next n years. Do that for each allocation and for values of n ={10, 20, 30, and 40}. That would likely be inte...
by siamond
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2371

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

Maybe post the data in an excel spreadsheet? Good suggestion! An Excel spreadsheet with the complete data set can be downloaded here: U.S. Monthly Stock and Bond Returns, 1871-2016 Thanks, but... I think AlphaLess meant the spreadsheet with the computations for the data used in the OP's graph, nota...
by siamond
Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: massive Roth conversion
Replies: 39
Views: 3085

Re: massive Roth conversion

Wondering if there is any magic bullet anyone knows about regarding converting a $1M+ Tira to Roth's and not get gutted by the IRS? Well, there is a magic bullet of sorts, but either you have it or you don't... If you happen to have a sizable taxable account in addition to your tIRA, then you can e...
by siamond
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2371

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

Todd, I don’t understand the graph. What is the y axis? Are portfolio rebalanced on a specific schedule? The Y-axis is monthly portfolio returns (inflation-adjusted with dividends reinvested). In the chart, these monthly returns are 36-month rolling averages, to smooth the data and make it comprehe...
by siamond
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: massive Roth conversion
Replies: 39
Views: 3085

Re: massive Roth conversion

Wondering if there is any magic bullet anyone knows about regarding converting a $1M+ Tira to Roth's and not get gutted by the IRS? Well, there is a magic bullet of sorts, but either you have it or you don't... If you happen to have a sizable taxable account in addition to your tIRA, then you can e...
by siamond
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7347

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Are the Vanguard numbers per cent of total portfolio or just of equities? 30 per cent of 60 per cent equities would be 18 per cent of total portfolio. If the 40 per cent is in US bonds then overall currency risk would probably be bearable. Vanguard's advice is 20% to 40% of equities . As to currenc...
by siamond
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10282

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

One quick comment. Trying to fit a broad search term in the title (I mean, besides Bogleheads) seems futile to me. I just did a quick search on 'investing' and found " About 895,000,000 results "... IMHO, better find a fairly memorable title, something simple and fun that people will remember, and l...
by siamond
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10282

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

The Bogleheads Echo Chamber
by siamond
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7347

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

I think the inclusion of emerging markets is a distraction. [...] it would have been such a microscopic fraction of global market cap that adding it to a developed markets index fund--had such a thing existed, which it didn't--would have made essentially zero difference in performance. I disagree a...
by siamond
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7347

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Somebody asked me for a per-decade illustration of US (Total-Market, aka TSM) vs. the rest of the world (developed, aka EAFED). I added Emerging Markets (EM) for good measure. Data comes from a mix of Dimson and al. and what we have in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet . http://i.imgur.com/PAn9bsOl....
by siamond
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7347

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

How is this to be reconciled with Dimson & al's findings that for 1900-2015, total real return (CAGR) was: 6.4% for the U.S. 5.0% for the world 4.3% for the world ex-US? That link takes me to a Credit Suisse marketing brochure. I can’t find a peer-reviewed paper by those authors on this topic. This...
by siamond
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7347

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Over 1921 to 1996, the compound capital return on U.S. equities was 6.95 percent . . . . the return on the global comprehensive index was 7.25 percent. How is this to be reconciled with Dimson & al's findings that for 1900-2015, total real return (CAGR) was: 6.4% for the U.S. 5.0% for the world 4.3...
by siamond
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7347

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

To my mind, the dissection of past returns in this case has only limited information value about possible futures. About all we can say is that international and domestic stocks behaved differently in the past. Future returns are unknown. Instead of the "past returns" argument, I'd like to highligh...
by siamond
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - A fool's game?
Replies: 28
Views: 2140

Re: Market Timing - A fool's game?

cj2018 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:58 pm
PS: i found this on Jim Collin's site and thought this is pretty funny and rather accurate portray of most people's mindset, probably.
Love it! I am posting on this thread *just* to be able to easily find this drawing again! :happy
by siamond
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Improving the Bogleheads forum
Replies: 112
Views: 13663

Re: Improving the Bogleheads forum

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:11 pm
Update: I just saw siamond's post. "Board index" is the name used by the forum software.
No way to customize it? If not, then the home page should probably say 'board index'...
by siamond
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Improving the Bogleheads forum
Replies: 112
Views: 13663

Re: Improving the Bogleheads forum

This may sound unbelievable but I can't even figure out how to find the Forum Index Page without your link and I've been here for over 2.5 years. I don't land there when I browse to bogleheads.org. I'm sure its easy to do but at least for me its not intuitive. Er, click on "Board Index" from any pa...
by siamond
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8474

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

What stands out to me is how severe the Oil and Inflation Shocks of the 1970s were for both UK and US stocks and bonds — and probably for all the other developed nations that relied so heavily on imported oil (including Canada, Australia, Japan and Western Europe). It's easy to forget these countri...
by siamond
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8474

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I quickly cobbled together a somewhat similar analysis for the UK, using inflation-adjusted annual returns. Data sources were shared with me by SimpleGift, so I will let him elaborate if needs be. The bonds side of the equation is 50% bills and 50% long-term bonds, because... this is what we have to...
by siamond
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8474

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Many thanks to the OP for following up on this 'portfolio disasters' series. The risks associated with regular bonds are often underestimated. It's not only inflation, or government defaults (they did happen, no question), it's also low real returns which is a full-blown risk on its own given that e...
by siamond
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]
Replies: 13
Views: 2380

Re: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]

looks like the wiki is out of date as it fails to mention the funds' international bond holdings I am not quite sure why you say that. The International bonds holdings are made clear in the Funds Allocation section, under the '2015 changes' heading. Their introduction in 2013 is also well documente...
by siamond
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]
Replies: 13
Views: 2380

Re: I did not know about the Lifestyle funds. [Vanguard LifeStrategy]

looks like the wiki is out of date as it fails to mention the funds' international bond holdings I am not quite sure why you say that. The International bonds holdings are made clear in the Funds Allocation section, under the '2015 changes' heading. Their introduction in 2013 is also well documente...
by siamond
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5535

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

I guess we took away very different messages from Roth's book. When I read it, I came away with the understanding that Roth was completely convinced that the stock market would absolutely recover -- and in a relatively short period of time. He had no doubts on the matter at all. Nearly every page i...
by siamond
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8824

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

Can someone post what returns are needed to support 4% and 5% + inflation adjustment yearly withdrawals? Thanks Unfortunately, this is more complicated. Returns (as captured by the CAGR metric) are independent from sequence of returns issues. Safe Withdrawal Rates are highly dependent on sequence o...
by siamond
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5535

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Logically, I can see a strong case being made for splitting one's fixed income between TIPS and short-term Treasuries. The former provides protection from unexpected inflation, while the latter provides stability and liquidity. Does anyone know how much of the inflation was "unexpected" and therefo...
by siamond
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5535

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Another point (AlohaJoe hinted at it). If one's portfolio grows by 20% in a few months, then drops 50%, does it REALLY feel like a 50% drop? Or less than that? Yes, we're all subject to anchoring bias, but to which extent? If the portfolio grew 20% at some point, then stayed stable for a couple of y...
by siamond
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5535

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Those charts are essentially cherry-picking, I am afraid. Not only do they start in the year where two of the worst stock crises started (1929, 1973, 2000), but they even start at the very exact right month to make a stock-heavy portfolio look as bad as possible, totally ignoring the big ramp-up th...
by siamond
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5535

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

But, i fear that looking at the data starting just before the meltdown periods may lead to the wrong conclusions. Not sure about the oil/stagflation shock of the 70s, but both the great depression and the tech bubble were proceeded by huge run up in equities. The plots show each of the asset alloca...
by siamond
Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer CapOne360 to Vanguard, or easier to wait until it's E-Trade?
Replies: 9
Views: 1057

Re: Transfer CapOne360 to Vanguard, or easier to wait until it's E-Trade?

I did a transfer E*Trade to Vanguard for two Roth IRA accounts a while ago, this was very easy. Can't remember if it was 100% online though. One tip for you. If you call Vanguard (the recipient) to help you with the transfer, they will happily oblige and make your life very easy, and help you cut th...
by siamond
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data
Replies: 7
Views: 1697

Re: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data

I am looking for data on the yearly distribution history of the Vanguard Wellesley Income fund (VWINX) since 1970. The phenomenally great SIMBA backtest workbook provides total return percentages by year but I am looking for detail underneath those numbers. I want to obtain the actual, dollar distr...
by siamond
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2054

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

SimpleGift wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:03 pm
As I've posted on this topic before, I already had S&P 500 net buyback yields in a spreadsheet for 1980-2012.
Ok, got it. Could you please remind me where you found the 1980-2012 S&P 500 net buyback yields, then?
by siamond
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2054

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

But with all this new attention on total payouts, it's puzzling why it's still so difficult to obtain net share buyback data on today's market indexes. Several sources, including S&P , regularly publish gross buyback yields — but these are meaningless unless adjusted for new share issuance, to prod...
by siamond
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data
Replies: 7
Views: 1697

Re: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data

I am looking for data on the yearly distribution history of the Vanguard Wellesley Income fund (VWINX) since 1970. The phenomenally great SIMBA backtest workbook provides total return percentages by year but I am looking for detail underneath those numbers. I want to obtain the actual, dollar distr...
by siamond
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1115
Views: 617620

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

What a better way to celebrate July 4th than a new version of the Simba spreadsheet? :wink: Here is the link to download: Backtest-Portfolio-returns-rev17c.xlsx Rev17c: 1. Updated Expense Ratios (ERs) with latest known values, e.g. latest reductions Vanguard announced in Apr-18 and more => Changed E...
by siamond
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7121

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Did anyone else notice that VWO (Emerging Market ETF) is down almost 20% from its peak? I am not sure how much further it has to fall, but I have to say that so far I have been pleasantly surprised with my willingness to stay the course. I will be rebalancing with new money next month so hopefully ...
by siamond
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 24
Views: 2248

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

It seems we've now come to the end of what can be wrung out these long-term, historical data series, I believe — unless Forum members have any specific suggestions for further analysis from them. Actually, if you wouldn't mind sharing (e.g. by PM) the data series (i.e. annual return numbers) you've...
by siamond
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What % of your equity is int’l?
Replies: 141
Views: 7637

Re: What % of your equity is int’l?

In our case, we decided to put our equities in three equal piles: 1/3 US total market, 1/3 US small cap, 1/3 international. The most important feature of this choice is it's sheer simplicity. [...] Spread your bets in a way that won't encourage you to fiddle with the numbers later. That is VERY sou...
by siamond
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What % of your equity is int’l?
Replies: 141
Views: 7637

Re: What % of your equity is int’l?

Simple: 50% domestic, 50% international. Hedging my bets, and maximally diversifying.
by siamond
Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 17
Views: 2726

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

The data don't seem to indicate that valuations are not 'reliably' mean-reverting; it seems that they could just as easily go up as down over the next decade. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar CAPE in a decade to what we have now. So if CAPE doesn't change and dividends and earnings growth c...
by siamond
Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 2015

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

Where does Total Return come from? Bogle's Formula: TR = Dividend Yield + Earnings Growth + Change in Valuation Oh, silly me. And yes, it doesn't take much algebra to get to E/P from there. I actually did exactly that in a blog article a while ago. Sorry for being slow, I was thinking empirical, yo...
by siamond
Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 2015

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

If there is average earnings growth over the next 10 years, and no change valuation, 1/CAPE10 is a quite accurate predictor of future returns. The big wild card is future valuations. Hm, where did you get this idea? The typical research (which I reproduced myself multiple times) is that 1/CAPE10 is...
by siamond
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5712

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

As Warren Buffet says “The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.” That is a wonderful quote I didn't know. Some people really have a way with words. So true! See my signature!! :sharebeer :sharebeer :sharebeer :sharebeer
by siamond
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 2015

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

There is another recent thread about Larry's article describing how CAPE predicts a probability of a range of returns. That's how I use it, to the extent I use it at all. Here is the thread . The part about Buckingham’s expected returns vs. reality is really a joke, but the core point is of course ...
by siamond
Fri Jun 29, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 2015

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

That actually is my point. It's a tool that provides a reasonable estimate under most conditions. But most conditions does not mean always -- which implies that at some point, you need to consider the tool less appropriate. I'm simply proposing that the extreme values may generate less appropriate ...
by siamond
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 2015

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

In over 85% of the historic 10 year periods, returns for the S&P 500 were positive. Which means that 1/CAPE is unable to predict 15% of the cases... Not true. Again, 1/CAPE is NOT exact predictive science. This is what trips a lot of CAPE critics on this board. An expected returns model is statisti...
by siamond
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 2015

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

The limited information I've seen on international CAPE is that some countries went well beyond 40 -- and the corresponding returns were actually negative. There is no value of 1/CAPE that would mimic that result, since even 1/infinity is still positive. I think you're alluding at Japan here. I agr...
by siamond
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 23
Views: 2015

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

1/CAPE is a reasonable model for expected (total, inflation-adjusted) returns over the long-term (10 to 20 years). Expected returns has to be understood in the statistical sense, the epicenter of a wide cloud of possibilities. If you try to use it as a specific forecast, you will be very disappointe...
by siamond
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep calm and Boglehead on!
Replies: 60
Views: 5712

Re: Keep calm and Boglehead on!

grok87 wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:46 am
As Warren Buffet says “The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.”
That is a wonderful quote I didn't know. Some people really have a way with words. So true!