Search found 4162 matches

by siamond
Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting rid of legacy annuity?
Replies: 3
Views: 443

Getting rid of legacy annuity?

For non-sensical historical reasons (don't ask!), I have a small variable annuity with Vanguard, worth roughly $80k. So far, I kept it because its value was below the corresponding cost basis of ~$90k (loaded history, sigh, don't ask), so it is currently growing tax-free. I am in my mid-50s, I have ...
by siamond
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US Large Value or Int'l Small for the long term
Replies: 8
Views: 614

Re: US Large Value or Int'l Small for the long term

The historical evidence for a premium of US Large Value (compared to US Total-Market) is tenuous at best - and I am being polite... See details in this blog post . The historical evidence for a premium of Int'l Small (compared to Total-Int'l) appears to be there, as you can discover by yourself (if ...
by siamond
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth filing FAFSA even if you know you'll get nothing?
Replies: 70
Views: 4885

Re: Is it worth filing FAFSA even if you know you'll get nothing?

Some schools make you fill it out even to be eligible for merit based scholarships. My son's college gave $1K in aid for filling out FAFSA. Yup. Same here. I was a high earner by then, and my son didn't get any other scholarship, so we paid in full, except for that $1k. Well, it was worth the few m...
by siamond
Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82737

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

tomcr wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:08 am
hello-I am a new member and request I be added to the e mail list. tomcr
Jellygrouch wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:51 am
Hello, I am a new member as well, please add me to this thread. I'm also interested in attending chapter meetings and events.
Guys, please check your private messages.
by siamond
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82737

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

moshe wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:19 pm
I would definitely be open to an evening discussion over dinner.
Actually, Moshe, if you're willing to coordinate such a dinner/discussion every now and then, feel free to proceed! This would nicely complement our Saturday's sessions.
by siamond
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Safe harbor / Withholding question
Replies: 7
Views: 765

Re: Safe harbor / Withholding question

Hm. Let me make sure I understand this, because I can interpret some of the answers in different ways... Let's solely focus on Federal taxes. The OP will receive monthly SS income. The OP will not set any tax withholding on such SS income. The OP plans to set up the RMD distribution in December of t...
by siamond
Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Now here comes the problem. Those tails are derived from knowing the results of the ENTIRE data set to now. The guy in late 1990's only had the data UP to his time period. He did not have the resulting fall out AFTER the late 1990's showing PE>30's was a disaster. Totally agreed, way too many CAPE ...
by siamond
Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of Investment Return versus Market Return 1900-2016
Replies: 8
Views: 1076

Re: History of Investment Return versus Market Return 1900-2016

I'm reading Mr Bogle's "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" and came across a chart on page 11 called "Exhibit 2.1 - Investment Return versus Market Return". It shows the growth of $1 from 1900 to 2016, comparing Investment Return (earnings growth plus yield) and Market Return (includes spec...
by siamond
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

I'd love to see a comparison between a 60/40 CAPE strategy and a 50/50 buy and hold, for an accumulator. It seems a little bit apple and orange to compare in such a way, but ok, I ran the numbers... I assumed a 30 years accumulation period, starting from a portfolio balance of $1000, and adding $10...
by siamond
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

I'd love to see a comparison between a 60/40 CAPE strategy and a 50/50 buy and hold, for an accumulator. It seems a little bit apple and orange to compare in such a way, but ok, I ran the numbers... I assumed a 30 years accumulation period, starting from a portfolio balance of $1000, and adding $10...
by siamond
Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

It is interesting, that in portfoliovisualizer, the Schiler PE market timing strategy looks better than the static 60/40, maybe it is due to the starting date, it goes back to 1985 Yes, if the Internet crisis is included (2002), then a CAPE strategy appears to have reduced volatility. Otherwise, no...
by siamond
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

You mention appropriately that the oil crisis, when CAPE was low, was not a valuation crisis. Would you disagree that 1929 and 1999, when CAPE was high, were valuation crises? Totally agreed, both crises were clearly due to speculative mania. The recent financial crisis is less clear, but clearly t...
by siamond
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

It suggests to me that the OP might mitigate the misery of fully participating in the next 50% drawdown - and still wind up with a similar final outcome. If that’s his real goal, he’s probably encouraged. Further, it also suggests with some tweaking, one might even stumble on a set of rules that pe...
by siamond
Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

I appreciate your work on this. I agree, as I hinted at upthread, that there is a weakness to the model and you have hit on it: namely, that it lowers stock exposure "too early" in cases of extremely high valuations, which then puts the investor behind the buy and hold strategy. That said, remember...
by siamond
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Using the historical data described in the previous post, I looked at various retirement cycles of 30 years starting from a given year with $1M, and withdrawing $40k at the beginning of each year, inflation-adjusted. A first strategy keeps the good old fixed 60/40 asset allocation. The second strate...
by siamond
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

A few posts ago, I promised to run a solid backtest of an algorithm somewhat close to what was proposed in the OP. Given the lack of International data, I solely focused on US history (monthly values), using data from Prof. Shiller for S&P 500 CAPE, for stocks and bonds returns until the early 1970s...
by siamond
Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

The problem with that is that the last 27 years of U.S. stock history fly in the face of it (since 1992, U.S. stocks crossed the historic CAPE average and essentially never looked back). PE10 (i.e. CAPE) has been higher than its historic average over virtually the entire period, yet real returns ov...
by siamond
Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 36
Views: 2488

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1071583721&serialid=J5yMXlRJvfnMRo%2F26sXGb92xh7MkFirw5X%2Bj3R5kq7g%3D p 15 "don't confuse inflation beating with inflation hedging" I came back to the 2017 credit suisse investment report i...
by siamond
Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 36
Views: 2488

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

[...] This being said, I am always skeptical about empirical evidence if this is all there is. But then, it seems really clear to me that the basic mechanics of pricing would make stock returns catch up with inflation in the absence of other factors (e.g. speculative mania and subsequent crash, etc...
by siamond
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 36
Views: 2488

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

A. Perhaps you're mistaking me for the guy who shot your dog? (Just kiddin') I am not aware of your hard fact, powerful or not, or the caveats you put around it. Tell us more. Well, those of us who think that history can teach us many lessons really enjoyed reading the "Triumph of the Optimists" bo...
by siamond
Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 36
Views: 2488

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

Well I feel more than a little put upon since it is usually not the nonbeliever who is required to provide the proof, but I will comply for the sake of the board [...] Ok, so you don't believe in learning lessons from history. Now I remember, you made that very clear in another thread. I do underst...
by siamond
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities as a hedge against inflation
Replies: 36
Views: 2488

Re: Equities as a hedge against inflation

Maybe you should explain WHY you "don't buy into" something... It would then be much easier to discuss the point.

And then let me suggest you check this thread, which is basically the same discussion:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=259538
by siamond
Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

I got a kick out of reading the thread and people wondering where the 60% stocks/40% bonds portfolio came from. The "Nedsaid version" first posted on February 8, 2015. [...] I don't really know the history of the 60/40 ratio, but knowing what I know about human nature, my "Nedsaid" version of histo...
by siamond
Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82737

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Here are the dates for our next meetings:
- December 15th, 2018, from 10am to noon (followed by social lunch)
- March 23rd, 2019, from 1pm to 4pm (no lunch)
by siamond
Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82737

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Anyone ever consider a weeknight meeting one of these days instead of a Saturday? Those weekends seem hard to commit to :) It would be difficult to find a free conference room (incl. video) where to meet in the evening. Plus some of our attendees have quite a drive, and it's much easier during week...
by siamond
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

To continue the discussion a bit, Siamond, you pointed out above that the choice of specific thresholds is basically data mining. I would suggest the same is true for CAPE10 itself [...] Oh yes, that is true. Still, this doesn't bother me as much as the thresholds. Because I ran the numbers with CA...
by siamond
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

About Swedroe's math, the pre-GAAP earnings allowed companies to unduly defer losses, not to permanently hide them. A permanent downward adjustment to CAPE is... weird. He also picked one varying factor in the middle of 10,000 other historical changes in corporate life, and assigned an arbitrary wei...
by siamond
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Siamond, did you read my comments about adjusting CAPE per Swedroe's comments re: GAAP changes? I'm no corporate accountant but I knock 15% off current measures to make an apples to apples comparison to historical values. So call it 28. I do think the second adjustment is more of a judgment call. M...
by siamond
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Of course using any arbitrary period is a bad idea. I rebalance only based on valuation, never year end or decade end. Well, same thing, this makes the AA adjustment become way too frequent, I believe, and defeats the long-term nature of CAPE's predictive value. Although to be fair, I never ran a b...
by siamond
Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Market timing based on CAPE10 would be more popular if effective. The shifting life strategy funds vanguard used to run are static allocation now. Even Schiller warns of using CAPE10 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-interprets-what-the-cape-ratio-says-about-the-market-today-102737135.h...
by siamond
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6151

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Just curious, did you backtest such an approach to see the benefits? Using a simplified 60/40 US-only allocation, so that you can use enough CAPE history to get something meaningful? I tried something like that in the past, and wasn't convinced, far from it... As a side note, not all stock crises ar...
by siamond
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 25
Views: 2164

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

Sorry, didn't listen to the podcast, but IIRC the argument from the AQR camp is that stocks have historically not been priced as if they are real assets (prices don't respond to changes in inflation or inflation expectations that would follow if they were real assets, unlike some other assets). So ...
by siamond
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you really have something to retire to?
Replies: 133
Views: 11656

Re: Did you really have something to retire to?

I was clearly running AWAY from (burning out at) work, I didn't have much of a plan. My old hobbies (fishing) and new hobbies (financial research and related volunteering) kept me busy enough, combined with a good dose of traveling and exercising. Time passed quickly for a few years, but nowadays, I...
by siamond
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

hdas wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:56 pm
You guys should consider moving away from excel and learning python, pandas....it's excellent for financial data manipulation. H
I'm planning to start playing with 'R', actually. Winter project.
by siamond
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Just for kicks, I entered the monthly historical data for total (US) bonds, using the corresponding Barclays index. Here it is. Unsurprisingly, much more compact outcomes, but also significantly lower portfolio balances at the end. Note that the standard-deviation remains quite high, but remember th...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82737

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting is scheduled on Saturday Sep 22nd: 1pm to 4pm. Details (agenda & location) have been shared by e-mail. If you guys & gals could let me know if you're planning to come (committed or tentative) by posting on this thread, or sending me a private message, or sending me an e...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

PS. for the sake of healthy skepticism, I'll run all 30 years cycles of MITTX (a very old fund which started in 1925), and see how the distribution works out. I got back to this. No Monte-Carlo here, only historical cycles, starting at every possible month since the fund's inception, faithfully inv...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

To more easily compare with the next charts I am going to post, here is another Monte-Carlo run, but this time, I used real (inflation-adjusted) monthly returns for VTSMX, and a fixed $100 extra monthly investment. Note that this MC run displayed a 'fatter' tail towards the left side, it happened fa...
by siamond
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Since I remain intrigued by the OP's approach, I decided to learn how to create such a simulation myself. For reference before I get to the next posts, here is the updated chart for VTSMX, using the Monte-Carlo-like simulation approach described by the OP, with a more adequate logarithmic scale for...
by siamond
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 83
Views: 10971

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

But if the new incarnation works as advertised---counter to equities, and really up when equities are down---that would be nice (a miracle?). So guess I'll hold it a little longer to see what happens. My small rIRA is my play money account, so might as well play. The historical numbers seem to indi...
by siamond
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 202
Views: 44919

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

My main focus was updating the primary Portfolios experience, but I can see the benefits of the other tools as well. Maybe I am biased by the memories of how it worked, but I find the navigation unintuitive: - I just couldn't find where the primary tools were (I clicked on portfolios, scrolled down...
by siamond
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 202
Views: 44919

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

May I suggest one small thing? Instead of having to customize the portfolio for each individual calculator, couldn't we have a single page with all calculators (like the lazy portfolios display), and enter the portfolio once? Would be much appreciated! I found this request all the way back on page ...
by siamond
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82737

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Last reminder for our meeting on Saturday Sep 22nd: 1pm to 4pm. Details (agenda & location) have been shared by e-mail.
by siamond
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

I'm not using PV's calculations of growth. I'm using my own. They do not adjust for inflation. They probably should and that's something I'll probably get around to. Yes, same here. I'll add it as an option to my computations. It does make more sense that way. A really serious question that I don't...
by siamond
Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

A pending question from the discussion we had in the OP's first scatter/matter post. So far, I did not adjust the $100 for (monthly) inflation in my own models, and this isn't consistent with the way PV does it - yeah, I should fix that. Please clarify how you do it first? [*]The performance is not ...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Lognormal. That's the word I was searching for. We expect the distribution to be lognormal, not normal. And it isn't unrealistic, real-world distributions of financial outcomes are lognormal, not normal. I think I heard that somewhere, anyway. It isn't randomizing just the order, it is randomizing ...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Siamond, although this is tangential to your comments, and may not interest you, I've been thinking that rather than display the end state as a scatter cloud, it might be better to display the entire swath of time courses for the simulations PortfolioCharts.com has something like that, I think, see...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology
Replies: 27
Views: 1740

Re: Matter/Scatter appendix: notes on methodology

Since I remain intrigued by the OP's approach, I decided to learn how to create such a simulation myself. With a heavy use of the RAND() function, and a big copy & paste of 500 simulations, this turned out to be reasonably easy to do. Besides learning, I was curious about the shape of the distributi...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 83
Views: 10971

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Ok, I thought more about it. So far, in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet , we have a VGPMX data series from 1985 till now, as a proxy for the precious metals and mining (PME) industry sector. The main point of tracking it is that this allows analytical people to develop an opinion about the divers...
by siamond
Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is requiring cell phone security codes - problem for international travel (UPDATE)
Replies: 65
Views: 3972

Re: Vanguard is requiring cell phone security codes - problem for international travel

Let me suggest you go all the way for better security, and use a Yubikey to secure access to your Vanguard account. I've been doing that for a while, and I find it very convenient. And this would work fine if you travel anywhere without a cell phone, as long as you keep your Yubikey on a keys ring ...