Search found 3476 matches

by siamond
Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 83
Views: 2522

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

A long-short portfolio that is long on large value stocks and short on large growth stocks does not give you the base return of large-cap stocks, because it's been subtracted out. It gives you the only the difference, the amount by which the return of large-cap value stocks exceeded that of large-c...
by siamond
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 83
Views: 2522

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

PS. I wouldn't mix Fama-French data with SBBI data. They define 'size' in a very different manner. I get essentially the same results, as I stated earlier, if I use the Fama French Benchmark Portfolio B/M series instead of the SBBI Large Stocks series. In this specific case, you're fine, but if you...
by siamond
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 83
Views: 2522

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

I posted this once before and didn't think I got a satisfactory reply, so I'll try again. Very likely I have done something wrong, but I don't know what it is. Er, the factor as you defined it (HmL) is a difference (a premium if you wish), not an absolute return. Hence your problem. If large stocks...
by siamond
Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 83
Views: 2522

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

I'm puzzled by this sentence: Almost all investors are knowingly or unknowingly exposed to factors such as size, value, yield, momentum, and risk. Two questions. First, what on earth is meant by "risk?" Is risk, itself, a factor? Is that a mistake, and did they mean to say "the market factor?" Or h...
by siamond
Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2000

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

As much as I understand where you're coming from, siamond, the OP post is answering a different question, taken from a previous Forum thread: How much of the price gains of the S&P 500 in recent years are attributable to earnings growth and how much are attributable to P/E expansion? That's it — a ...
by siamond
Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2000

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

The story of this thread so far, in a nutshell: OP: This is a picture of a chicken. Any thoughts? First Responder: But that bird doesn't have webbed feet. How can it be a duck? OP: If you look closer, you'll see that it's actually a chicken. Second Responder: But why didn't you offer a picture of a...
by siamond
Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gap Year, Sabbatical, Leave of Absence - Questioning My Sanity
Replies: 29
Views: 3189

Re: Gap Year, Sabbatical, Leave of Absence - Questioning My Sanity

I took 3 months of sabbatical in my early 40s, and this was one of the best times of my life, and definitely changed my perspective on the rest of my trajectory (now early retired). I was able to come back to work in the same company, having negotiated ahead of it. I would not have been able to do s...
by siamond
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2000

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

The chart posted in the OP doesn't include dividends, correct? Then it is not representative of fundamental returns nor total-returns, I'm afraid. Correct. In the interest of simplification, the OP exercise just focuses on price changes to the S&P 500, breaking out the annual changes to earnings an...
by siamond
Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2000

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

The chart posted in the OP doesn't include dividends, correct? Then it is not representative of fundamental returns nor total-returns, I'm afraid.
by siamond
Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 296
Views: 58225

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

The date for our next meeting has been finalized, mark your calendars! Saturday March 31st, 1pm to 4pm, Lincoln Public Library (MA). Agenda will be shared by e-mail a couple of weeks before the meeting. If you're not on my roster, please send me a private message. PS. I may have communicated in the ...
by siamond
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I’ve made huge errors and hope it’s not too late
Replies: 33
Views: 3851

Re: I’ve made huge errors and hope it’s not too late

If you search a bit this forum, you'll find a few threads about past financial mistakes, and realize that many of us did much worse than you did by the way we were 40... Interestingly, making such severe mistakes (and understanding their impact) might be the best way to learn... So stop beating your...
by siamond
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1048
Views: 583327

Re: Simple boostrap: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet

I thought I'd share a spreadsheet to allow folks to do a dirty 40 year 3-year moving bootstrap of the whole simba dataset with some simple results such as cagr, sustained withdrawal rate. You need to download to excel for it to work. Note this is a very primitive spreadsheet, just to get folks thin...
by siamond
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1048
Views: 583327

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

Fair enough, though I was speaking more of the average of the best rates, not the very best rate. jmk, I'd be happy to add a couple of CD series, but as was discussed a couple of pages of posts ago, it isn't too clear to me how to exactly proceed to keep it meaningful and reasonably simple. I know ...
by siamond
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3079

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

However, the actual risk of stocks is likely higher. You can now buy 10-year TIPS which are guaranteed to outperform inflation (by about 0.50%), and the risk of disasters affecting the stock market is probably greater but has not happened in the US. I don't know if the actual risk of stocks is 'lik...
by siamond
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?
Replies: 53
Views: 2953

Re: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:25 am
Do you have a guilty pleasure investment, if so what's yours?
There is only one possible answer to your question, the aptly named USA Mutuals Vice Fund (VICEX). Unfortunately, I am a boring Boglehead, and I plead not guilty. :wink:

Image
by siamond
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3079

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

I gave it a quick run with the Simba spreadsheet , where we can easily assemble rolling returns charts in real or nominal terms, for a given portfolio. Click (once or twice) to see a larger version of the charts. https://i.imgur.com/KEWQ2h6l.jpg https://i.imgur.com/y7gxbBGl.jpg I played a bit with t...
by siamond
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 92
Views: 6490

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

I was wondering what was the peak so far. According to this link , it is $19,697 on a well-known (?!) US exchange. Thursday was a frantic one for the bitcoin markets, as traders once again grappled with outages at some of the world’s largest exchanges. Altogether, the global average bitcoin price re...
by siamond
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do people still use AAA?
Replies: 181
Views: 10804

Re: Do people still use AAA?

I had AAA for the longest time, for road service. They got me out of troubles many times. Every time I start questioning their utility (which is NOT often), I soon have an issue (battery or else) where their service proves once again quick, efficient, and oh-so-helpful. And now that I am retired and...
by siamond
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9146

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

Basically, company paid dividends "are less likely to inflict regret" because they do not create responsibility for personal choices and self control that selling shares do to raise money. Didn't notice this thread until now. That is a very convincing explanation. Thanks for sharing. A bunch of fan...
by siamond
Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spending Taxable to Zero during Retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 5067

Re: Spending Taxable to Zero during Retirement

I early retired a couple of years ago. My wife still works, but doesn't make much, so the bulk of our spending comes from our investment accounts. The current plan is indeed to use the taxable account until we're forced to do otherwise. While going through a Roth conversion process every year. More ...
by siamond
Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 27
Views: 2550

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

It is unfortunate that the author mentions LifeCycle funds (a fund of funds with a fixed allocation for life) [...] I think you may be confusing the author’s use of the term “lifecycle” with a specific—and slightly different—product, namely Vanguard’s LifeStrategy family of funds. The LifeStrategy ...
by siamond
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 27
Views: 2550

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

It is unfortunate that the author mentions LifeCycle funds (a fund of funds with a fixed allocation for life) in the very first sentence of the article, and then NEVER discusses them in the rest of the article. This provides the same "one fund does it all" property, while actually performing much, m...
by siamond
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 296
Views: 58225

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Updated roll call for our coming meeting (Dec 9th, 10am, Lincoln library): Committed: siamond (lunch) Norton750 (lunch) LookingtogetFIRE'd (+ guest, lunch tentative) indecisive (+ guest) (no lunch) sotpatro (lunch?) loserski (lunch) dkg2707 (lunch?) historikerstreit (lunch) kamikazekid (no lunch) re...
by siamond
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 12004

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

I wanted to look at this longer term, but obviously this fund didn't exist much before this. As a proxy I found this data on 10 year T bonds, which I would assume would be a bit more volatile than your typical bond market with higher duration, but nonetheless serves as a rough proxy. http://pages.s...
by siamond
Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mint.com or PersonalCapital.com
Replies: 11
Views: 1015

Re: Mint.com or PersonalCapital.com

I use Mint to track my spending, complemented by a spreadsheet of mine where I export the classified transactions. I've heard good things about Personal Capital, but... I'd rather not break what works well for me. I would *never* use an online tool for tracking my investment accounts. The credential...
by siamond
Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a good financial planning math reference
Replies: 8
Views: 429

Re: Looking for a good financial planning math reference

OP, since you seem proficient with spreadsheets, let me suggest you take a good look at the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, described in this wiki page . There is a LOT of historical information in there that you can easily conjure in one simple Excel formula, or just playing around with the existing...
by siamond
Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think
Replies: 137
Views: 12004

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than People Think

Bonds have been pretty good for short-term risks like volatility and drawdowns. Which are mostly perceived emotionally, in nominal terms. Bonds have been god awful for mid/long-term risks like loss of purchasing power (due to low cumulative returns and/or inflation). Which are felt in one's wallet i...
by siamond
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 296
Views: 58225

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Bump. If you didn't tell me yet and you plan to attend on Dec 9th, please do tell (post here, or private message, or e-mail).

Also, I need to make a group reservation for the restaurant, so I really need to know *soon* if you plan to come to the social lunch or not. Thanks!
by siamond
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4793

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Wall Street Journal front page today: "Bitcoin Mania: Even Grandma is In".

We do seem to be well into Phase 3. :wink:
by siamond
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4793

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Todd, I thought it was a typo, but you seem to view bitcoin as an asset class. Seems to me it looks much more like an individual stock. Even if you were to generalize to crypto-currencies, I don't see that as an asset class, or even a sector, just a handful of individual stocks. As such, extreme beh...
by siamond
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4793

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

True. But when a financial asset gains more than 900% in one year (as Bitcoin has done so far in 2017), then its price gains are getting into the territory of extraordinary and unprecedented. Putting aside the question of whether Bitcoin is currently in a classic bubble, can anyone identify another...
by siamond
Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio
Replies: 11
Views: 696

Re: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio

Well... looks like they changed the webpage... and now my spreadsheet isn't working again. The original webpage link "works" and does take one to the general information page. It's weird, though, if one clicks the tabs on that page to shift between "Overview", "Price & Performance" and "Portfolio &...
by siamond
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The annoying insistence on frivolous credit checks/pulls
Replies: 35
Views: 3215

Re: The annoying insistence on frivolous credit checks/pulls

OP, thanks a lot for sharing your experience. So far, I didn't have issues with my frozen reports (it's all very recent and my financial situation is quite stable), but I'm sure that this will get annoying at one point or another... There is just no good answer here, I'm afraid. If there are a coupl...
by siamond
Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: To Avatar or Not - Get One? How did you choose?
Replies: 128
Views: 6681

Re: To Avatar or Not - Get One? How did you choose?

For example, here's an Icon-only search link for "Ladygeek"; just change the search field to whatever you want (I'm not sure which is really her): https://www.google.com/search?q=ladygeek&newwindow=1&safe=off&hl=en&tbs=isz:i,imgo:1&tbm=isch&source=lnt&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjdvdbuh9vXAhUpleAKHe4CBT4QpwUIH...
by siamond
Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?
Replies: 51
Views: 6910

Re: Any BLACK FRIDAY deals for Bogleheads?

Splurged with a Neato Botvac Connected robot vacuum cleaner... With full approval from the government (dear wife!)... At $450, this seemed like a pretty good deal. Never used such a thing, we'll see how it performs.
by siamond
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 148
Views: 13480

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

As mentioned much earlier in this thread, I find the error charts to be much more informative, so I encourage you to produce those and share them as well. Well, this is essentially what the RMSE metric summarizes in one number (it's similar to std-deviation, it's the square root of the average of t...
by siamond
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 104
Views: 16447

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

A quibble is that in financial conversations volatility is equated with risk because that is a customary definition or perhaps a term of the art. Such an equating does not mean that people doing it are ignorant of all the considerations. [...] I agree with Buffett on this and I believe it is an ext...
by siamond
Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Public or Montessori Private School
Replies: 60
Views: 4229

Re: Public or Montessori Private School

When we moved to the US some 20 years ago, we made the mistake of putting our two young children to a local Montessori school, in the rush of the 10,000 things to adjust to when moving to a new country. We paid a good chunk of money, and they did absolutely nothing to help the transition of our kids...
by siamond
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 148
Views: 13480

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

And to finish, a simple treasury fund, plus a high-yield fund just for fun: - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFITX) - Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (VWEHX) https://i.imgur.com/Z63eNQmh.jpg Unsurprisingly, the HY fund has a life of its own, while I woul...
by siamond
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 148
Views: 13480

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Let's keep going by using two more tax-exempts funds: - Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VWSTX) - Vanguard Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VWLTX) https://i.imgur.com/a9EFwS6h.jpg I was expecting more accuracy on the short-term fund, and less accuracy on the long-term f...
by siamond
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 148
Views: 13480

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Kevin pointed to this 2015 thread in a more recent discussion, I posted one of my graphs below out there, then thought that I should add to Kevin's thread for future references, and run a few more tests. The primary value-added of my tests is that I started at the end of 1990, instead of 1993/94 for...
by siamond
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?
Replies: 140
Views: 10556

Re: What are the things you want to do between 55 and 65?

I'm right there, early retired, 55... Primary things ongoing or in sight: - exercise regularly (after a life of not doing much), and significantly improve my health while I still can - play tennis and do kayaking again (I did as a teenager) - big road/fishing trips (e.g. one month long) - fishing in...
by siamond
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 104
Views: 16447

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

There is risk in any asset, some much greater than others. One major risk of a 100% TIPS LMP is that you cannot accurately estimate what your necessary living costs are going to be in real terms 20 or 30 years from now. The future often has a way of surprising us with things like Alzheimer's diseas...
by siamond
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 14008

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

The confusion stems from conflating high correlation with high predictive accuracy. I've demonstrated this for several Vanguard bond funds; in this post, I show the analysis for VBMFX: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 10yr returns:VBMFX . As I said in that post, From this it looks that it's more li...
by siamond
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 14008

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Here's a question for the thread: excluding inflation, what could trigger a 10% drop in a total bond fund like VBMFX? From what I've read, I don't believe a total bond fund like this has ever had that large of a drop. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but it would be the first time, I'd think? It depen...
by siamond
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 13214

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

In short, it is irrelevant whether you can invest in the safest asset or not in finding the PV of the liability. If the liability is meant to be met with high probability then the return of the low risk asset is the proper discount rate. The expected returns of the portfolio is a separate issue. We...
by siamond
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 14008

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

WHY is it that some people can get in such denial about bond crashes? They happened, and they were extremely painful, plain and simple. And they can happen again. Yes, but they were caused by inflation, not by rising interest rates. So the fact that it's "obvious that interest rates are going to ri...
by siamond
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 13214

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Whether it is difficult for you to accept or not, it's true that big swings in stock valuations, if your portfolio is heavily weighted in stocks and you are within 15 years or less to your retirement date, will have a big effect on retirement readiness. I actually strongly disagree. I think our dis...
by siamond
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 13214

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

sandramjet wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:22 pm
siamond wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:04 pm
Now, if we come to a core definition like I did in my post, then things become mathematically consistent.
What post is that? The link seems to go to just a reply form...
Oops, sorry, my bad. I fixed the faulty post. Here is the right link.