Search found 3324 matches

by siamond
Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Tell Tale Chart
Replies: 12
Views: 2318

Re: The Tell Tale Chart

That is a problem but if you go back more than about 20 years you really compound the "history repeating itself" factor. What do you mean? I don't get it? Yes, history tends to repeat itself, and that's very useful information, isn't it? Regarding corporate bonds, I "touched" on that one with the "...
by siamond
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Tell Tale Chart
Replies: 12
Views: 2318

Re: The Tell Tale Chart

I ran out of interesting general questions to be addressed by this type of chart. Anybody got another one? Well, you could play with REITs, with Gold and with Mid-Cap-Value to address the classic questions. Maybe also corporate bonds. I don't know how meaningful that is though, because: a) the time...
by siamond
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 13
Views: 1230

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Nothing is set in stone, but see my note on consistency above. And it's also why I'm personally partial to portfolios that have done consistently well regardless of the home country, as I think it speaks to the robustness of the strategy in different economic conditions. The trouble I have is that ...
by siamond
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 13
Views: 1230

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

You can definitely still achieve a 4% withdrawal rate, but your portfolio may look a little different than the very specific US stock/bond split typically studied. Hm. Tyler, a little Nisiprius on your shoulder should have made you write: You could definitely still have achieved a 4% withdrawal rat...
by siamond
Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 13
Views: 1230

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

That is indeed a good question... Check the last part of thIs blog entry (this uses a 70/30 asset allocation): https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-2/ Personally, I reached a few conclusions a while ago: - just looking at the US history is indeed narrow thinking and probably m...
by siamond
Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International REIT
Replies: 34
Views: 3518

Re: International REIT

Here is a Bogleheads blog entry I wrote a little while ago that may provide some additional informaiton to folks interesting in domestic and international real estate funds. https://finpage.blog/2017/09/11/portfolio-diversification-reits-and-internationalemerging-bonds/ Have people decided to stick ...
by siamond
Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Tell Tale Chart
Replies: 12
Views: 2318

Re: The Tell Tale Chart

Aside: Poe's "The Tell Tale Heart" was published in January 1843 has nothing to do with Doc's "The Tell Tale Chart" posted in October 2017. Or does it? :D Well, actually, John Bogle used the same analogy with Edgar Allan Poe's work some 15 years ago, but he came up with a different type of chart th...
by siamond
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 31
Views: 3147

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Yes, I suspect all those guys are using MSCI, period. Now Barclays doesn't seem to get the same CAPE numbers as Star Capital, which is puzzling. Ah man, I was happy with solely using Vanguard as a simple and consistent data source that made sense, and now we have to go all over the place, sigh. I th...
by siamond
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 31
Views: 3147

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

Thanks for the reminder, lazyday. Note that one can use the Internet Wayback machine and track the history of the Star Capital Web page. This isn't perfect, between the irregular timing of the author's updates and the irregular timing of the snapshots, but still, this is informative. Also note that ...
by siamond
Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1032
Views: 573495

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Probably the last update for 2017, v16f is now available. You can download here . This mostly addresses the rolling returns topics agreed upon in previous posts (allowing to display premiums; time periods 1/3/5/10 years - see here ). Other changes are minor. All details in this post . If a couple of...
by siamond
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1032
Views: 573495

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Here is the full quote from the VTMGX 2016 Shareholder Report , which fully confirms the timeline I had derived from Barry's description on the wiki pages: The fund’s original Investor Shares were renamed Admiral Shares as of the close of business on May 13, 2011. The Investor Shares recommenced on ...
by siamond
Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1032
Views: 573495

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

We tagged this on the wiki tax history page for the former fund [...] Ah, thank you Barry, I vaguely remembered that there was more to it, but couldn't put my finger on it... VTMGX has history since its inception in 1999. Your note 3 on the VDVIX page would seem to invalidate my proposal. You seem ...
by siamond
Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1032
Views: 573495

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

1) For Int'l Developed EAFE, VTMGX Admiral is used. Why not the Investor version, which is used for all other Vanguard funds in the spreadsheet Yes, that's a good point. VTMGX (the admiral fund) has more history than VDVIX (the investor fund), the former was created in 1999 while the latter was onl...
by siamond
Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1032
Views: 573495

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

After looking more into this spreadsheet, I have a couple of questions/observations. 1) For Int'l Developed EAFE, VTMGX Admiral is used. Why not the Investor version, which is used for all other Vanguard funds in the spreadsheet Yes, that's a good point. VTMGX (the admiral fund) has more history th...
by siamond
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7012

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

TIPS are too expensive in the sense that the yield is too low and you have to invest too much for the income provided. Actually the point is arguable. If all your TIPS yield 0.00% real, then you get a withdrawal rate of 3.33%. At 1.00% real you get 3.8%. All this being a 30 year LMP. It is not nece...
by siamond
Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New investment account vs. credit freeze?
Replies: 7
Views: 810

New investment account vs. credit freeze?

Say somebody froze his/her credit reports with all the bureaus described in our Credit Freeze wiki page , the big 3, plus Innovis/Chex/Sage. Now say this individual would like to open a new individual investment account (e.g. brokerage, IRA, etc). Is there any snag here? Would a company like Vanguar...
by siamond
Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?
Replies: 68
Views: 25812

Re: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?

It's also interesting that my Chex report is very minimal with regards to it's contents relative to the accounts I have had. Makes me wonder if banks really use this. I was a bit surprised by the same thing, but then I noticed that a biz checking account I recently opened at a small local bank did ...
by siamond
Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7012

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

1) TIPS Market size: The size of tips markets is $1.7 Trillion =about 1/20th of the Aggregate Bond Market (i.e. Vanguard Bond Market index which does not include TIPs). See here for a reference- page 7. https://www.nuveen.com/Home/Documents/Default.aspx?fileId=56370 At $4 Trillion in assets Vanguar...
by siamond
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flagship Reps
Replies: 91
Views: 8818

Re: Flagship Reps

I can't remember speaking to a Vanguard rep after the day one of their customer reps (efficiently) helped me transition some old accounts towards them. I don't have $5M with them (I wish!), but if I had, this wouldn't change my needs one bit. Personally, I am happy that they are implementing cost-cu...
by siamond
Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7012

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

I got the impression from talking with a Vanguard Personal advisory rep awhile back that they are suggesting more corporate, intermediate, and total bond funds in an allocation appropriate for you and not to include TIPS, but to let your stock portfolio be the inflation hedge. That is exactly what ...
by siamond
Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?
Replies: 68
Views: 25812

Re: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?

Received PIN from Innovis on Wednesday, right at 2 weeks since I did the freeze. Still waiting for PIN from ChexSystems. Even though I applied for both freezes at the same time, it took about a week or so longer for me to get the PIN from Chexsystems Yup, same here. I actually received the report I...
by siamond
Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Health and Status Check of My Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 305

Re: Health and Status Check of My Portfolio

You don't have a 30 years time horizon, you have a 70 years time horizon. Life doesn't stop when you retire (thankfully). Agreed with the previous poster, any position under 5% should be merged with a bigger asset class. VFIAX will generate some dividends, but it's about the best you can do in a tax...
by siamond
Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?
Replies: 68
Views: 25812

Re: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?

For those that ordered their Innovis report online, how many days did it take to arrive? They say you can expect it within a "few" business days. Today was the third business day and I didn't get. I figure if I don't get it by Saturday, I'll call them on Monday. I would suggest you give it a week, ...
by siamond
Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?
Replies: 11
Views: 783

Re: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?

PS. you're welcome to ask clarification questions on this thread, but please use the 'Simba mega thread' for improvement suggestions.
by siamond
Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?
Replies: 11
Views: 783

Re: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?

I noticed that for SCV the Vanguard return data, when available, is for the Investor class. Maybe you should consider using the Admiral class? Yes, this is a historical thing, the Simba spreadsheet has always used Investor class funds (and ER). I am not fully enthused about that, but I am not too e...
by siamond
Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1032
Views: 573495

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Thanks, Ladygeek, Snarfanio's question was answered by Tyler and myself on the corresponding thread. About the previous posts, for the record, I ruled out changing the rolling charts methodology, I'd rather stay consistent with Morningstar and PortfolioCharts. Even if PortfolioVisualizer made anothe...
by siamond
Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?
Replies: 11
Views: 783

Re: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?

Tyler's answer is right on, I fully concur. I'll just add a couple of details: 1. to find the data sources used in the Simba spreadsheet, please go check the 'Data_Sources' tab. In the case of Small-Cap Value (SCV), you'll find the following succinct description, which matches the general approach d...
by siamond
Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budgets: how do you track irregular income and expenses
Replies: 35
Views: 2377

Re: Budgets: how do you track irregular income and expenses

I track every expense as they occur, whether they are regular or not. This is my 'raw' tracking, and sure enough, some months go much higher than others, if only due to property taxes. I budget on an annual basis, so the irregularity doesn't bother me. I also amortize large irregular expenses (a spe...
by siamond
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs as "pseudo diversification"
Replies: 44
Views: 3684

Re: REITs as "pseudo diversification"

i've heard the argument that because of the correlation between REITs and equities, it doesn't serve to provide actual diversification, as opposed to traditional real estate investing (this is a position i've heard argued by several people, including Dennis Bethel of NestEggRx). i'm not sure about ...
by siamond
Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 47241

Re: Equifax customer information leak

Wow, there are over 650 posts on this thread - way too long to read! Is there a "best practices" summary/conclusions somewhere? Let me suggest you read the Wiki page we created in the process... https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Credit_freeze Bottomline: would be safe to freeze your credit with all m...
by siamond
Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?
Replies: 69
Views: 5425

Re: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?

I had basically given up... I registered on 9/13, more than a week ago, and... amazing, the Equifax TrustID e-mail was waiting for me this morning... So I eagerly clicked, it asked for my date of birth and... sigh... System Unavailable We are unable to process your request at this time. Please try a...
by siamond
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 47241

Re: Equifax customer information leak

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:56 am
1) How long should I wait for the TrustedID sign up email?

2) I had registered on 9/12 for my wife and 9/13 for myself.

3) What will be sender's email address?
I just received mine, and I registered on 9/13, so... hopefully, you're close. The sender e-mail is "Trusted ID Customer Service".
by siamond
Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?
Replies: 68
Views: 25812

Re: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?

If, however, I wanted to take advantage of a higher rate sooner and do an early withdrawal to open up new CD accounts at the higher rate, then I think I would have to request a temporary lift of the freeze. So, to express it in simpler terms, buying a new CD would not be possible if one has a credi...
by siamond
Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article - Credit freeze
Replies: 49
Views: 6437

Re: Wiki article - Credit freeze

Hm, a credit freeze *might* have annoying consequences when buying new CDs, see this post:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=227301&p=3540447#p3540447

Let's wait & see for possible feedback, but it might be worth adding a note about that on the Wiki page if this is confirmed.
by siamond
Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Table in BH Guide to investing - Did I miss something?
Replies: 6
Views: 1054

Re: Table in BH Guide to investing - Did I miss something?

Since I started to play with those numbers... I was wondering what was the longest period of time where US Stocks (large-caps, e.g. S&P 90/500) stayed in the red. The answer is 14 years (this was during the great depression, the recent crises did recover a tad faster). In other words, no period of 1...
by siamond
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Table in BH Guide to investing - Did I miss something?
Replies: 6
Views: 1054

Re: Table in BH Guide to investing - Did I miss something?

I guess bonds will deliver better results, no? Well, depends on your perspective. In nominal (absolute) dollars, yes, the minimum annualized returns for bonds never got negative for 5 or 10 years periods, and only fell 2.7% for a one year period. Now, before you rejoice too much, in real (inflation...
by siamond
Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Table in BH Guide to investing - Did I miss something?
Replies: 6
Views: 1054

Re: Table in BH Guide to investing - Did I miss something?

As to the title of the chart indicates, those are annualized returns, so yes, per annum. What was maybe less clear is that those nominal returns. I just did a quick run with a data table added to the Simba spreadsheet . Those numbers are indeed correct, except that: 1. the title of the chart refers ...
by siamond
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?
Replies: 69
Views: 5425

Re: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?

I just read on the New York Times that the 200,000 people who ALSO got their credit card stolen at Equifax are the ones who used the Equifax id theft service and filed a dispute to fix something. Er, hm, I am suddenly wondering if I care that much about receiving the missing e-mail and proceeding to...
by siamond
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: math on determining rebalancing bands?
Replies: 6
Views: 460

Re: math on determining rebalancing bands?

The X% 'absolute' rule makes little mathematical sense. But fact is it works (worked) fine with a simple 3-fund AA like yours. And simple is beautiful. I tortured Excel by running multiple rebalancing models, read various studies from other people, and the outcome is almost always the same, the impa...
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?
Replies: 69
Views: 5425

Re: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?

I was able to sign up 9/12 and received the email today. Now it will apparently be several more days before the service starts working. At least it didn't ask me for a credit card number so far - not that they don't already have them all. At this stage (you got the e-mail, activated the monitoring ...
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article - Credit freeze
Replies: 49
Views: 6437

Re: Wiki article - Credit freeze

Mudpuppy wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:09 pm
In the "A credit freeze does not" section, I would recommending adding that a freeze does not affect your ability to use existing accounts like credit cards or loans. Some people think a freeze will shut down all their credit cards.
Good idea. Done with a quote from Krebs and minor reordering.
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article - Credit freeze
Replies: 49
Views: 6437

Re: Wiki article - Credit freeze

Ok, I removed ARS, and did a few cosmetic things. I think this is starting to look great. Many thanks to mrc for suggesting such new wiki page, very helpful.
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article - Credit freeze
Replies: 49
Views: 6437

Re: Wiki article - Credit freeze

Unless and until there is definitive proof that freezing just the big 3 (+ Innovis + ChexSystems) is sufficient to keep my information away from the nefarious, all the minor reporting entities matter. I share the feeling, but I am just trying to be practical here. We can't list them all on the Wiki...
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?
Replies: 68
Views: 25812

Re: Is a security freeze at Innovis really needed?

I was debating with myself about Innovis, Chex Systems and SageStream, and then discovered this morning that there are tens of micro credit bureaus... Where and how to draw the line is very unclear to me. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has a list of ALL the credit reporting agencies...
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?
Replies: 69
Views: 5425

Re: How long did it take for Equifax to email you a security sign up?

Signed up on the 14th, didn't get an answer yet. I put on hold the freezes due to this (and the likely craziness on corresponding Web sites), but I am getting a tad itchy... :shock:
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 47241

Re: Equifax customer information leak

Giving more exposure to a rather important piece of information (was posted on the wiki thread)... I had no idea that there were that many credit reporting companies... Do check the PDF file below. Now where to draw the line is very unclear to me. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has ...
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article - Credit freeze
Replies: 49
Views: 6437

Re: Wiki article - Credit freeze

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has a list of ALL the credit reporting agencies out there. I found this on Krebs on Security. http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201604_cfpb_list-of-consumer-reporting-companies.pdf This is current as of January 2016. Apologies, as I thought I had inc...
by siamond
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between USD strength and Tot. US stock MINUS Tot. intl. stock returns
Replies: 11
Views: 925

Re: Correlation between USD strength and Tot. US stock MINUS Tot. intl. stock returns

Wondering if you can share the annual numbers instead of the cumulative numbers. This will show some info that is not as easy to notice in the cumulative numbers. Here is the spreadsheet I used, this all came from public sources, this is actually pretty easy to do once you get the hang of it: https...
by siamond
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between USD strength and Tot. US stock MINUS Tot. intl. stock returns
Replies: 11
Views: 925

Re: Correlation between USD strength and Tot. US stock MINUS Tot. intl. stock returns

Here is another graph. Same principles as in this post , except that I used the MSCI "ex-USA" (aka RoW, Rest Of the World) annual returns in USD, and the exchange rates from FRED as AlohaJoe just described. For 1971/72, I forced the exchange rate at 1, by lack of data. Note that I didn't show 2017, ...