Search found 5373 matches

by siamond
Fri May 29, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Etrade vs Vanguard
Replies: 20
Views: 1395

Re: Etrade vs Vanguard

I've been using both for years. Vanguard for IRAs and Roth-IRAs, E*Trade for taxable account + checking/savings. All investments with Vanguard funds. I don't see any reason to change. I still have a small HSA at Fidelity, waiting for some significant medical expenses to get rid of it...
by siamond
Fri May 29, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I panicking or being prudent?
Replies: 55
Views: 4137

Re: Am I panicking or being prudent?

OP, yes, you panicked. It is entirely understandable after witnessing a 30% drop unfolding in just a few weeks. But you didn't act on your emotions, which is a great sign. Instead, you shared on this forum, which is another good sign. I'll be honest, after this crazy sudden drop, I was itchy as well...
by siamond
Thu May 28, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value
Replies: 37
Views: 6360

Re: Small Cap Blend vs Small Cap Value

Hi. Hope you don't mind me resurrecting this old post. Just doing some research on SCV funds/asking around for advice on the forum and I stumbled across this. I'm looking to add SCV to my portfolio (~10% of equity). I have a 457 through Fidelity which offers FID SMALL CAP VALUE (FCPVX) 0.66%. Howev...
by siamond
Thu May 21, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 127
Views: 11338

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

Honestly speaking, you don't have a case with BA as this is not BA's fee. [...] Your only strength is you found out that Ovago is retroactively applying T&C so you may have some standing with FTC/Chamber of Commerce/DoT etc. Ovago clearly changed their T&C after the fact and tried to use the new te...
by siamond
Thu May 21, 2020 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 127
Views: 11338

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

Come to think of it. Maybe you should dispute the full amount with BA under reason services not received. The reason for it is so that your card issuer will submit a chargeback to BA. BA sees this should be refunded due to cancellation and **hopefully** just agree to the chargeback and thereby bypa...
by siamond
Wed May 20, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 127
Views: 11338

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

Honestly speaking, you don't have a case with BA as this is not BA's fee. I would try to work it out with Ovago first. If no success, you can try calling BA to see if they are willing to take over the ticket and process the refund directly. Airlines generally will refer you back to OTA but there is...
by siamond
Wed May 20, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 127
Views: 11338

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

If this fee is listed in Ovago terms & conditions when you purchased, then this would be legal. Yes, I was thinking the same and guess what... 1. Ovago replied this afternoon by quoting their current terms and conditions where a 'force majeure' section appears to claim that they are entitled to the...
by siamond
Wed May 20, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 127
Views: 11338

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

If this fee is listed in Ovago terms & conditions when you purchased, then this would be legal. Yes, I was thinking the same and guess what... 1. Ovago replied this afternoon by quoting their current terms and conditions where a 'force majeure' section appears to claim that they are entitled to the...
by siamond
Wed May 20, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 127
Views: 11338

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

Travel agents are resellers. They are not just providing the service of contacting the airline on a consumer's behalf. What seller name appeared on the credit card statement, Ovago or Airline X? Darn it. I was somehow convinced that it was Ovago, but no, I just checked, it was British Airways. Whic...
by siamond
Wed May 20, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 127
Views: 11338

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

If you do not receive a FULL REFUND of airfare for flights that have been canceled during the outbreak of Covid-19, you can file a complaint at the DOT website: https://airconsumer.dot.gov/escomplaint/ConsumerForm.cfm It isn't clear to me this would help if the airline company isn't the problem (in...
by siamond
Sat May 16, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 148
Views: 14781

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Answering those posts about VPW in a more suitable thread... Have you considered market-based measures of future real returns on treasuries are deeply negative? The current rate on 10-year TIPS is -0.4%. What if markets don't eventually return to the mean, as you're tacitly assuming? In that case yo...
by siamond
Tue May 12, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 434
Views: 141106

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

And while I'm at it, I also pinned down the date for the fall meeting: Sep 12th, 10:15-12:30. Online or in person, to be determined...
by siamond
Sun May 10, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 434
Views: 141106

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Next meeting: June 20th, afternoon slot (1pm to 4pm). Probably online. Mark your calendars!
by siamond
Sun May 10, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Event-Driven Bear Markets in U.S. History, 1835-2020
Replies: 26
Views: 2645

Re: Event-Driven Bear Markets in U.S. History, 1835-2020

I guess this kind of makes sense, but then all stories made up in hindsight are shaped to make sense, and yet the future always has something new in store for us (current crisis being a striking example)... Remind me of a very insightful quote from Daniel Kahneman: The correct lesson to learn from s...
by siamond
Fri May 08, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads blog - April 2020 postings
Replies: 1
Views: 269

Bogleheads blog - April 2020 postings

https://i.imgur.com/0D1VYZIl.jpg Do you know that there is a Bogleheads blog ? We could use more readers (and also more writers!)... I plan to issue a post like this every month to remind forum readers about it, but it is easier for interested parties to get an e-mail notification by subscribing to...
by siamond
Fri May 08, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 434
Views: 141106

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Ping! See above!
by siamond
Thu May 07, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15575

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

This was the most insightful part of the article, I think... :shock:
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
by siamond
Thu May 07, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Replies: 224
Views: 13334

Re: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread

Booked a trip to Iceland thru Gate 1 Travel for 5/6. [...] 1) Anyone have luck getting a refund from Iceland Air for a cancelled flight? [...] Can't get anyone on the phone at Iceland Air, and past communication with them directed me back to the booking agent. It seems from reading EU DOT is requir...
by siamond
Thu May 07, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?
Replies: 14
Views: 953

Re: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?

Still didn't get ANY response from Aer Lingus, although I pinged them again a few days ago, if only to get a written confirmation of the flight cancelation. I am NOT impressed any more... Surprisingly enough, I am now kind of cautiously happy I went through the low-cost reseller (Ovago), at least, t...
by siamond
Mon May 04, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 5624

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

Quite some work done here. Will read more carefully later on.
by siamond
Sun May 03, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 3216

Re: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?

Nice charts, SimpleGift! Here's another way to look at it. [...] Tyler, if you're a little bored at home, it would be cool to reproduce SimpleGift's chart, but using CRSP breakpoints instead of those terribly skewed 2x3 fixed buckets which do not map to any kind of investible reality... Just a sugg...
by siamond
Sun May 03, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9002

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

As we know, the US displayed a very nice burst of small/mid value premium during the Internet crisis (early 2000s). Which was undoubtedly a time of low inflation in the US, and if you check the graph, inflation was mild as well for the other countries. Yes, but wasn't this a special situation creat...
by siamond
Sun May 03, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years
Replies: 7
Views: 658

Re: Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years

It would be valuable to compare to the remarks here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=313688 quoting a Bernstein hypothesis about value outperformance vs inflation rate. Can one see in these different microcosms whether the inflation rate in the different countries correlated s...
by siamond
Sun May 03, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9002

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

Well... Here is a plot of annual inflation in the 16 developed countries tracked by MSCI since 1970... http://i.imgur.com/03O1HZll.jpg Unsurprisingly, inflation was hectic everywhere in the late 70s (and the small/medium value factor surged by then) and then calmed down A LOT since 1995. As we know,...
by siamond
Sun May 03, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread - Providence, Rhode Island Bogleheads Chapter
Replies: 37
Views: 8708

Re: Master thread - Providence, Rhode Island Bogleheads Chapter

Our next Metro-Boston meeting will be on  Saturday May 9th, 10:15am to 12:30 . It will be an online meeting, based on Zoom. All details will be shared by e-mail. Participants from Rhode Island are welcome to join. The agenda will be the following: 1. A presentation about Investing Basics 2. An open ...
by siamond
Sun May 03, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 434
Views: 141106

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Our next meeting will be on  Saturday May 9th, 10:15am to 12:30 . It will be an online meeting, based on Zoom. All details were shared by e-mail. If you're located in New England and wish to be added to my distribution list, feel free to contact me by private message. The agenda will be the followin...
by siamond
Fri May 01, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years
Replies: 7
Views: 658

Re: Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years

It would be valuable to compare to the remarks here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=313688 quoting a Bernstein hypothesis about value outperformance vs inflation rate. Can one see in these different microcosms whether the inflation rate in the different countries correlated s...
by siamond
Fri May 01, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?
Replies: 14
Views: 953

Re: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?

On my side, I have yet to receive more than a case number from Aer Lingus, and it's been 4 days. Their Web site also proved to be very poorly designed to get a clear indication that a flight has been canceled. Fortunately, it was actually a British Airways flight operated by Aer Lingus and the BA We...
by siamond
Fri May 01, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years
Replies: 7
Views: 658

Re: Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years

It would be valuable to compare to the remarks here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=313688 quoting a Bernstein hypothesis about value outperformance vs inflation rate. Can one see in these different microcosms whether the inflation rate in the different countries correlated s...
by siamond
Fri May 01, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years
Replies: 7
Views: 658

Small and Value factors, 16 countries over 25 years

I *finally* completed a little research project I wanted to do for a long time... There are various models attempting to simulate the history of small/value factors for US investors, before corresponding funds and indices actually existed. Some of those models suffer from significant deficiencies (e...
by siamond
Fri May 01, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations
Replies: 106
Views: 6535

Re: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations

Why do you believe those inflation expectations are reasonable? With the amount of QE that is going on, it is unlikely to be true. See this analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the accuracy of Treasury breakeven inflation rates (TBI) to approximate actual inflation before and after the 200...
by siamond
Fri May 01, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College partial refunds and 529s
Replies: 25
Views: 2222

Re: College partial refunds and 529s

The real question is going to come next year when schools issue their 1098s what exactly will they be reporting... They will be following the Form 1098-T instructions. Box 1. Payments Received for Qualified Tuition and Related Expenses Enter the total amount of payments received for qualified tuiti...
by siamond
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College partial refunds and 529s
Replies: 25
Views: 2222

Re: College partial refunds and 529s

Most colleges and Universities would have billed back in November or December for spring semester so 60 days likely not enough for folks that didn't go on a payment plan (which most with 529s unlikely to do). I believe as long as money is used for fall semester folks are in the clear. That is also ...
by siamond
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488343

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Whatever I might do now, I wouldn't try to time the market now. It's drunk. When I saw that big pop in futures this morning, I thought the market's gone from whiskey to heroin this morning. That is the best characterization I've read in a while... Totally drunk indeed... :shock: I didn't expect suc...
by siamond
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488343

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

firebirdparts wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:00 am
Whatever I might do now, I wouldn't try to time the market now. It's drunk. When I saw that big pop in futures this morning, I thought the market's gone from whiskey to heroin this morning.
That is the best characterization I've read in a while... Totally drunk indeed... :shock:
by siamond
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?
Replies: 14
Views: 953

Re: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?

Good advice. Thanks. We had some Jetblue tickets as well to get in/out of Boston for the flight - they didn't cancel (offer a refund) those but we gladly took the waiver as we fly to Boston from where we live. Agreed that JetBlue was very easy to work with. Aer Lingus, not so much. They didn't comm...
by siamond
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?
Replies: 14
Views: 953

Re: Aer Lingus Cancellation - Waiver or Refund?

Refund if you can... Unless you're willing to do your part in subsidizing Aer Lingus (which could be a legitimate choice if you use them often and like them, but it has to be a conscious decision). Not only can Aer Lingus go out of business, but even if they don't, it seems extremely likely that fut...
by siamond
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 992
Views: 333788

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I see what you mean. I guess there are two interpretations of my question: whether one *should* do this, and whether one *could* do this. [...] Yes, but that is also the approach once suggested for bridging the gap until SS kicks in, but was abandoned in favor of leaving it in the portfolio and usi...
by siamond
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Replies: 224
Views: 13334

Re: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread

Second call to Expedia: I had to explain the point multiple times, they called Alaska no less than 3 times, and I finally got a supervisor to process the refund. I stayed more than an hour on the call... Finally got my refund processed. Might take 8 to 12 weeks to show on my bank account though... ...
by siamond
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

So...the tilt (or maybe overweight is a better word to use here?) of the overall domestic allocation grows/shrinks as domestic global cap falls/rises. Sorry for repeating this again but I think it could be an important point for people to realize, especially since it isn't necessarily apparent when...
by siamond
Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

Doesn't it change in percentage terms though? Bear with me as I attempt to illustrate this using some of the numbers that I presented... Yes, you're correct, I didn't word this right... I meant to say that the % in the 80/20 formula remain fixed (by design!). I didn't mean the % of US stocks overal...
by siamond
Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

I’ve been interested in Portfolio Chart’s Golden Butterfly for a bit now. I wonder if Tyler9000 has any thoughts after reading this about replacing the all domestic equity portions with some global equity? Tyler and myself often discuss by e-mail and we exchange ideas. He did an absolutely wonderfu...
by siamond
Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

Hello Siamond Thank for you and others who have worked on this post. This post has been very educational. I cannot claim to understand many nuances, in the post specially as it comes to bonds (and whether i should stay with TBM or pivot to treasuries), but nevertheless, posts like these help greatl...
by siamond
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

Has it been pointed out that the combined global/domestic approach results in the domestic tilt decreasing as the domestic % of global cap increases...and vice versa? For example, US is approximately 57% of the global equity market at the moment. So if someone is 80% global/20% US, that results in ...
by siamond
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

Siamond - thanks for this great write-up! I wonder if you considered how this data should steer an investor exposed to multiple home country risks? By way of example, I'm an American expat living in the UK with about 90% of my investments in USD-denominated accounts in the US, and about 10% in GBP-...
by siamond
Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

Great analysis. I'm trying to identify the "bottom line" for an equity portfolio that (in my case) basically follows the MSCI ACWI - which is split roughly 56% US, 35% International, and 9% EM. Sorry if I missed it, but if the takeaway is to tilt 20% higher towards domestic, what would the MSCI ACW...
by siamond
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get a dubious investment shop to be investigated
Replies: 8
Views: 944

Re: Get a dubious investment shop to be investigated

If the company has a place of business in the US (even though it's customers seem to outside the US) it would seem that it could be subject to prosecution for wire fraud/money laundering/RICO if it moves money between the US and other countries. [...] That's an interesting point, I didn't think abo...
by siamond
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get a dubious investment shop to be investigated
Replies: 8
Views: 944

Get a dubious investment shop to be investigated

A friend of mine asked me to attend a presentation on a 'superb' investment opportunity by the CEO of company X. My friend's sister was hired by company X to become a sales rep (she was welcome lavishly, professional pictures, various gifts, etc). She's paid only through sales commissions. The compa...
by siamond
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Years of Investing in the World
Replies: 45
Views: 4805

Re: 50 Years of Investing in the World

Wanted to drop a quick note that in Investing in the World part 1 when I click on the image of "Inflation vs Exchange Rate 1995-2019" it opens a new tab and shows an enlarged image but of the inflation vs exchange rate for 1970-1994 . Not exactly sure how this happened, but you're quite right. I ju...
by siamond
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Replies: 224
Views: 13334

Re: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread

Whoah. Black & white experience (cf. my previous post about Expedia/AlaskaAirlines). I had another flight on JetBlue mid-May. Expedia displayed that everything was fine. I used my TruBlue login on JetBlue and found out that the itinerary had been canceled. Again, no notification from Expedia which s...