Search found 4404 matches

by siamond
Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA
Replies: 12
Views: 606

Re: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA

Now let's explore the natural gas side of things... Pretty significant for us, as we use natural gas for heating and New England winters can be COLD. My current supplier (and distributor) is National Grid. The current supply rate is 60.25c/therm. From what I understand, there is a winter rate and a ...
by siamond
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA
Replies: 12
Views: 606

Re: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA

I ended up giving a call to my current supplier, which is CleanChoice Energy, after checking their Web site. They were actually fairly gracious and explained that EverSource switched me to a variable plan with them two years ago following a very generic mailing that I answered to. If I recall correc...
by siamond
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 41
Views: 2527

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

[...] Anyway, there is now some costs that can be used if siamond decides to consider backtesting a portfolio with local-currency hedged global equities in place of or in combination with home equities. As you pointed out, those costs are likely to be quite different depending on one's locale. And ...
by siamond
Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA
Replies: 12
Views: 606

Re: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA

So here’s the deal. You are getting a good rate versus the Eversource winter fixed rate but the rates reset around April which will likely be lower and you will be locked in paying a winter rate year round. Your best bet is to lock in a rate in the spring or summer that covers next winter. The term...
by siamond
Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA
Replies: 12
Views: 606

Re: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA

You should be comparing Constellation's generation rate (12 cents) against your current supplier which should be on your latest bill. You can compare offers at http://www.energyswitchma.gov/# Yup, I already did all that. No question we'd have excellent savings. I'll wait a few more hours for more f...
by siamond
Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA
Replies: 12
Views: 606

Re: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA

Does the 12 cents include the fees and taxes and charges and taxes on fees and fees on the charges? I know I'm at 19 point something all in with eversource and that only half of that is for electricity. If all the same BS is applied to 12, I'd expect to see 24/kWHr all in. I don't see any extra fee...
by siamond
Tue Jan 22, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA
Replies: 12
Views: 606

Constellation offer (electricity and gas) in MA

I received an offer from Constellation for a fixed price contract at 12.09c/kWh for 36 months, with a gift card of $75. I currently use EverSource as distributor and somehow signed up a while ago for CleanChoice Energy as provider, without paying attention at its eye-popping rate (which I don't even...
by siamond
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 7465

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

From Ken French via portfolio visualizer, the thirty year period, Nov 1988 - Nov 2018 [...] As far as "Large-Value" goes, it's been negative for last 34 years MStar Chart Well, in truth, the (large) value premium was never really there... While the small-cap value and mid-cap value premiums were DE...
by siamond
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3183

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

I almost feel like I should sell some of my developed international at Vanguard to buy VTSAX to make my experiment a 3 horse race. Looking at my Fid account, FSKAX gained (0.78%) slightly more than FZROX (0.76%), pulling FSKAX slightly ahead of the zero fund yesterday. VTSAX actually returned a lit...
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...

Thank you, House Blend. Very useful inputs. Well, some of it, at least.
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...

[Response to OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] For example, some might find it interesting or useful to learn that you can get advanced notice of changes in ER for Vanguard funds by monitoring the Semi-Annual and Annual Reports. The ER experienced by the fund in the previous year, which is some...
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...

drk wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:39 pm
s/exchange/expense/

I would be concerned paying that much just to an exchange. :wink:
LOL. Just did the word exchange, editing the OP... :wink:
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Re: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...

stan1 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:43 pm
Three of these are investor shares that no longer exist for most Vanguard investors so they will get the even lower Admiral share expense ratios.
As far as I understand, these investor funds are closed to new investors, but they still exist. My prediction stands! :wink:
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...
Replies: 10
Views: 663

Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...

Just for fun, I am going to make a couple of predictions. Later this year, I predict that those international funds will get cheaper: - VEIEX expense ratio will change from 0.32 to 0.29 - VEURX expense ratio will change from 0.26 to 0.23 - VPACX expense ratio will change from 0.26 to 0.23 - VFSVX ex...
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 41
Views: 2527

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

Siamond: do you have an opinion whether hedging “works” (which I suppose in a different, unique argument, ie what does working really mean)? I have no clue... Andrew basically convinced me that I should look at it in details at some point, and try to form a more factual opinion than what my gut fee...
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 41
Views: 2527

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

hmm I don't think you would need it to be from an actual currency based fund. If you had the returns of a global fund, couldn't you just adjust it to the change in the currency of the country relative to .. hmm yea you would have to know the currency that country relative to the "worlds" currency (...
by siamond
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 41
Views: 2527

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

First of all, let me say how much I appreciate this forum and its participants. I only found it a few weeks ago, but in that time I've learned a great deal. Thank you all! [...] I think wise investors try to protect themselves from unknown unknowns. Welcome. You have a very cool user name, you made...
by siamond
Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

I would keep things simple. If you want to extend Treasury index fund historical returns with approximations back until 1871, I would go with the index fund returns when available, then use a close-enough active fund's returns for missing years, when available, and finally patch the rest with the i...
by siamond
Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

Could you please elaborate, taking the example of the three active (and long lived) Vanguard funds I identified in this post (which are being tracked in Simba)? Sure. For active Treasury funds, I would use their benchmark as guide [...] I skimmed through the discussion about those active funds in t...
by siamond
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5
Replies: 49
Views: 5586

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

It's just speculation on my part until we see all the new prospectuses roll out in 2019, but I'm guessing the opposite. I suspect that Admiral Shares will be asked to absorb a majority of the incremental expenses that used to be paid by Investor Shares. Yes, you're right, for transition reasons, it...
by siamond
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5
Replies: 49
Views: 5586

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

Will be lovely to see it happening. My elder son invests in Total-World and I invest in Int'l Small. The difference between ETF and MF/Admiral is puzzling. This is the same fund (cf. Vanguard's patent). Yes, investor shares are on their way out, but I thought this would be a great equalizer between ...
by siamond
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

Understood and agreed about the various treasury index funds. Thanks, this is exactly the kind of guidelines that I was aiming at. I share the feeling that Vanguard's approach to index IT/ST funds is a little weird, but it is what it is... 3- Treasury funds (not indexed): when necessary, because of ...
by siamond
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 45010

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

A member of the Metro-Boston Bogleheads chapter wanted to post the following words:
Jack and Fred Rogers are my heroes; Jack is in good company.
by siamond
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 45010

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

Jack joined this forum on Jan 07, 2008 and posted a total of 20 times. His posts can be found here: jack bogle I was checking this link, and here is an extract of one of his last posts (emphasis is mine). That brought tears to my eyes. Yes, Jack, we'll keep singing. I’m beginning to age a bit, and ...
by siamond
Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 45010

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

In my mind and in the minds of the millions of investors he helped, he is well alive. His legacy will live forever.
by siamond
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazone Prime Store card, discount and gift cards
Replies: 4
Views: 386

Re: Amazone Prime Store card, discount and gift cards

I have used this card for a long time...try this..log in and in the upper right corner is a label "Rewards and Offers (I think). Click on that tab and see the details of your purchases and current rewards. Maybe that will help. I did exactly that, but this does not display any details, just the sum...
by siamond
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazone Prime Store card, discount and gift cards
Replies: 4
Views: 386

Re: Amazone Prime Store card, discount and gift cards

Do you have the Chase Amazon card? If so - log on to Chase.com. On the right you'll see your rewards... click on "Earn More" under your reward amount. On the right you'll see "Your Activity" - on the bottom of that column, click "Review more activity." If you scroll down, you'll see your transactio...
by siamond
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazone Prime Store card, discount and gift cards
Replies: 4
Views: 386

Amazone Prime Store card, discount and gift cards

I occasionally buy Airbnb gift cards at Amazon, to benefit from the 5% credit that should (?!) come from the use of our Amazon Prime Store card (the one from Synchrony). I was blindly trusting the fact that it works, but... I never double-checked it. It is a little odd to get a discount on a gift ca...
by siamond
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread - Providence, Rhode Island Bogleheads Chapter
Replies: 22
Views: 4984

Re: Providence/RI Metro Group, and Meeting January 14th

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:36 pm
On an administrative note, should this thread be merged with the earlier one? Rhode Island Chapter Established

I didn't want to combine the threads if this is a different chapter.
Same chapter. Mel just posted on an old thread.
by siamond
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1133
Views: 641160

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Second, but related question, is whether Simba should switch over to the pure index funds instead of the managed ones I am starting to ponder if we should not leave the active treasury bond fund data series as is (if only because of the long history of corresponding Vanguard funds), while adding se...
by siamond
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

Longinvest has been steadily adding new bond fund models to the simulator. It seems to me that it would be a good time to develop some generic set of rules as well as specific recommendations when trying to best match a given real-life bond fund to a given model. Case in point, the main bond funds f...
by siamond
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread - Providence, Rhode Island Bogleheads Chapter
Replies: 22
Views: 4984

Re: Providence/RI Metro Group, and Meeting January 14th

32 attendees! I was VERY impressed. Quite a successful community outreach. By all means, let's try to leverage on this early success.
by siamond
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1133
Views: 641160

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

So, if Barclays 3-10 index only goes back to 2002, what did VFITX do before that? If it wasn't the Barclays 3-10 index, then I'd argue that there's already a splice. Actually, I got mixed up, apologies. Both VFITX and its Barclays index have been in existence since 1982. Confusingly enough: 1) Vang...
by siamond
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1133
Views: 641160

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

An interesting question which was asked on the bond fund model thread (click on the tiny arrows to check the context). Here is my initial feedback. More opinions welcome. Second, but related question, is whether Simba should switch over to the pure index funds instead of the managed ones Yes, this i...
by siamond
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

Well, yes, I could ask longinvest to add a 10-6 model which would match better the index followed by the Fidelity IT fund. But given that Fidelity only adds a few years of real-life record, it is really not worth the effort. It would be quite easy, actually, to add a 10-6 model. Want me to do it? F...
by siamond
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

So if the purpose is to just compare the methodology for generating price returns vs. reality, and if the Fido data goes back the farthrest, is the 10-4 model close enough, or should there be a modification to the spreadsheet to add something that better approximates the Barclays index that Fido us...
by siamond
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

Isn't the total return data from longinvest's spreadsheet originally calibrated (or at least compared) to the somewhat-active versions of Vanguard's bond funds, not their newer passive counterparts? Not sure how much difference trying to change that would make when trying to compare to either the V...
by siamond
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

After some detective work (using 'time machine' copies of Morningstar Web pages!), I was able to reconstruct the data series for the Fidelity index funds. I used: * FLBAX - Fidelity Spartan Long-Term Treasury Bond Index Fund * FIBAX - Fidelity Spartan Intermediate-Term Treasury Bond Index Fund Both ...
by siamond
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages
Replies: 18
Views: 1636

Re: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages

The "worst case" is the whole point of this particular analysis: on the assumption of "safety first" we know that at least once in history you wouldn't have had your butt covered. (Do remember that that "singularity" covers many decades, though, and gets compared to many other decades!) [...] I und...
by siamond
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

It's not much help, but Fido's series give you a couple of extra years as these go back to early Jan 2008. Interesting idea! I looked at treasury index funds from Fidelity (e.g. FUMBX, FUAMX, FNBGX), they were created in 2005 , so yes, we get more history. I started to check FUAMX (the IT fund), th...
by siamond
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet
Replies: 217
Views: 9767

Re: Disciplined with finances, but not so with diet

follow the bogleheads diet: 1 Develop a workable plan 2 exercise early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little pounds 4 Diversify your diet 5 Never try to time the grocery market 6 Use low carb foods when possible 7 Keep stress low 8 Minimize calories 9 cook with simplicity 10 Stay the course...
by siamond
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

I ran a few more tests and swapped a couple of messages with longinvest. The bottomline is that Vanguard treasury bonds which are NOT index funds (e.g. VUSTX, VFITX, VFISX) seem to be more active than I would have expected, and their price series have a life of their own... It seems that they end up...
by siamond
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

About VUSTX, the index of reference is Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Long. Here is a growth chart illustrating the match between total returns between the fund, its index and the bond fund 30-11 model ("/X" is the index; "/M" is the model). http://i.imgur.com/vlrvP9Zl.jpg Now let's do the same, but...
by siamond
Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 277
Views: 36727

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

I ran a few tests, comparing the total/capital returns of two Vanguard bond funds and their index against the corresponding numbers predicted by longinvest's latest bond fund model. I use VUSTX (LT treasuries) and VBMFX (total-bonds). I also wanted to try IT treasuries (VFITX) and ST treasuries (VFI...
by siamond
Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages
Replies: 18
Views: 1636

Re: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ I answered my own questions... :wink: I assembled a Simba derivative spreadsheet, with a data table running this kind of math. You need to customize the portfolios in the left panel of Compare_Portfolios, the first two are the ones displayed on the charts in Data_Table tab. Don't forg...
by siamond
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages
Replies: 18
Views: 1636

Re: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages

In their 2004 book Asset Dedication: How to Grow Wealthy with the Next Generation of Asset Allocation , Stephen Huxley and Brent Burns introduce an intriguing idea of the "equity yield curve". For the purpose of funding essential liabilities, the authors suggest that rather than comparing means bet...
by siamond
Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5808

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

Siamond, I recall reading some of your analysis of a high equity allocation over longer periods. I specifically remember a graph showing how when equities has outperformed, they have done so by a lot. When they have underperformed, they have done so by very little. If you could point me to the thre...
by siamond
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5808

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

heyyou wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:03 am
Is there a fixed percentage of portfolio method with bands to reduce the annual volatility?
You pretty much defined the core of the Guyton-Klinger method, an underappreciated and yet very reasonable approach to withdrawals.
by siamond
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5808

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

The data suggest, then, that bonds are better at protecting against shallow risk, but stocks are better at protecting against deep risk. Frankly, I'm not that concerned about shallow risk. Given enough money, enough time, and enough diversification, an investor can come through whatever a "normal" ...