Search found 4659 matches

by siamond
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yubikey
Replies: 11
Views: 772

Re: Yubikey

I also have been a Neanderthal for far too long... Then I finally bought a Yubikey, enabled Gmail, Vanguard and Dropbox 2FA with it, and then started to use LastPass as a password manager (EXCEPT for Vanguard and E*Trade, where my lifelong retirement accounts are, and there is no freaking way I'll s...
by siamond
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulating Returns of Leveraged ETFs
Replies: 183
Views: 10984

Re: Simulating Returns of Leveraged ETFs

Thanks, I know of MSCI. They offer only monthly return history for non-subscribers though. (They actually do have daily but only the last 5 years). Ah sorry, I wasn't aware of this limitation. Check your PMs... As for return type, we Europeans need Net, not Gross. Gross is for local (i.e. US) citiz...
by siamond
Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1606
Views: 99250

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thanks, I have daily data for Euro Stoxx 50 2x (and 3x) all the way back to 1992! I'm missing: [...] See my response in the simulation thread . Actually there is information for the x2 leverage index at MSCI.com from 29 December 2000 [...] Obviously as I will be using the index data and not the act...
by siamond
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1606
Views: 99250

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

celerity wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:51 pm
Thanks, I have daily data for Euro Stoxx 50 2x (and 3x) all the way back to 1992! I'm missing: [...]
See my response in the simulation thread.
by siamond
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulating Returns of Leveraged ETFs
Replies: 183
Views: 10984

Re: Simulating Returns of Leveraged ETFs

Quoting an interesting post from HedgeFundie's thread: Yes, you need intra-month daily volatility to do any proper modeling of leveraged funds, as was explained in this thread . Having daily (total) returns is obviously the easiest way to get to that. SPDR® EURO STOXX 50 ETF has daily data back to N...
by siamond
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1606
Views: 99250

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

For those wanting to apply a similar strategy in Europe, I have estimated an "albeit-similar" portfolio for us the Europeans. Some caveats: - There is currently no x3 leveraged ETF for stocks, nor for treasuries, in Europe that I could found - There is no leveraged MSCI World ETF, therefore I had t...
by siamond
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 117
Views: 8015

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

There has been multiple cases of countries where the '4% rule' failed quite miserably, either due to devastating wars or due to an unprecedented crisis. I think it would be foolish to rule out the fact that something like that could happen in the US. On the other hand, working and saving until you d...
by siamond
Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11156

Re: International under-performance

...And yet, just a few years later, here you are, drawing a fairly dramatically opposite conclusion from the same source and same type of representation... I said "I honestly don't know how to interpret it. I really don't." Originally, I'd added that I didn't expect people to believe me when I said...
by siamond
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11156

Re: International under-performance

Endpoints, endpoints, so much depends on choice of endpoints. I can't agree more... See below! :wink: It isn't just "recently" that the US has outperformed a global portfolio. It has also outperformed it since 2000, 2.9% versus 2.1% over the last fifty years, 1969-2018, 5.3% versus 4.7% since 1900,...
by siamond
Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Are you annually spending in Real or Nominal Terms?
Replies: 63
Views: 3744

Re: Retirees: Are you annually spending in Real or Nominal Terms?

Each year, we plan to spend 4% of whatever the portfolio balance was at previous year end, so no automatic inflation adjustment. I withdraw 3-4% a year, based on annual balance of portfolio and needs. I do not factor in inflation year to year. Well, both of you account for inflation, but in an indi...
by siamond
Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11156

Re: International under-performance

I'm wondering if you've calculated what the foreign tax is costing you on average? Estimates I've seen are always somewhat vague, but seem to be about 5 or 6 bps on average in taxable accounts (where you can claim the credit) up to maybe 15 or 20 bps in tax-advantaged account (where the foreign tax...
by siamond
Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11156

Re: International under-performance

Over the long term if international and US are expected to have the same, or even similar, returns (BEFORE fees) yet international is more costly to own, then it's pretty obvious which one will have higher returns AFTER fees. That's a bunch of "ifs", of course, but you don't have to look very hard ...
by siamond
Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 129
Views: 24528

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

The updated paper was finally published [...] Unfortunately, following the link to the underlying database, the dividends are still missing. I'll wait a few days and ping the authors... I just pinged one of the authors, who was kind enough to answer right away. The new data is available in Stata fo...
by siamond
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs vs. Actual Real Estate Returns, 1904-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1637

Re: REITs vs. Actual Real Estate Returns, 1904-2015

Todd, great topic, I've been asked this precise question a few days ago and wasn't too sure about the answer. I agree that the graphs in the OP seem fairly compelling, but sometimes things can appear to line up from a graphical standpoint, while not actually lining up from a numerical standpoint... ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Are you annually spending in Real or Nominal Terms?
Replies: 63
Views: 3744

Re: Retirees: Are you annually spending in Real or Nominal Terms?

How many retirees in the forum are actually keeping track and taking retirement income in “real” terms? That is, if In year 1 you are taking $10k, the following year you have a set plan and are taking $10k + an inflation factor? Or are you taking an amount and any sum not spent or used for consumpt...
by siamond
Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.
Replies: 31
Views: 4901

Re: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.

Any tips on honing in on the scripts that actually return data? Here are a couple of things I do: - ignore the .js/.css/.png/etc names - focus on names that seem to have a clear meaning - focus on entries where the waterfall area shows that the response took a bit longer than the rest of the stuff ...
by siamond
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11156

Re: International under-performance

On top of that, beyond the small explanation that comes from the costs, the 100+ year DImson Marsh data would make it very dificult for a 'return to the mean' explanation forecasting higher returns for ex-US. It isn't difficult at all. Ignore the 1st half of the 20th Century (i.e. skip WW-I and WW-...
by siamond
Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates

FWIW, I built an additional worksheet dedicated to modeling Roth Conversions, Withdrawals from IRA for Expenses, RMDs and QCDs. It pulls data from the main cashflow engine and allows me to easily focus, plan, and see the affects of the model. Do you do something similar? I have cash flows (and rela...
by siamond
Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates

I am slowly coming around to the idea of Matching AGI. Spent some time updating my model and now have a plan that averages the AGI from 60-70, with the AGI from 71-80. Definitely a worthwhile exercise and a very helpful conversation. Same here. Just added an AGI chart to my tax planning spreadsheet...
by siamond
Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 32
Views: 3304

Re: How many of you have some developed international and EM indexed bond funds in your portfolio?

VG USA now offers such a fund? I don't believe so. Or am I missing something? I was speaking of a GLOBAL fund (all countries including the US), not an International ex-US fund. Something equivalent to Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWSX) for bonds? See: https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Press-Relea...
by siamond
Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.
Replies: 31
Views: 4901

Re: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.

This is bad news because Vanguard (smartly) seems to have locked down their API to themselves only. While you can see the response in the Network dev tool, if you try to load up a Vanguard API URL on your own you're not going to get a response from it (you'll just get an error). That makes most of ...
by siamond
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.
Replies: 31
Views: 4901

Re: Help with XPath for ImportXML Google Sheets.

I'm sure Vitaflo will have more authoritative comments than me, but here is a quick example of why I think things changed a good deal on the Vanguard Web pages since this thread started. I took a new look at this individual fund page , I was looking for the expense ratio, I quickly noticed on the Ne...
by siamond
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility of spending
Replies: 27
Views: 1639

Re: Volatility of spending

Budgeting is one thing. Actual spending is another. I compute my (early retiree) budget for the year with the help of a variable withdrawal method. This doesn't mean that I am going to spend exactly that. One could view the budget as a rough upper cap, but then yes, what to do with sudden large expe...
by siamond
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]
Replies: 64
Views: 3918

Re: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]

Continuing with SWR as a risk & reward perspective, here is a Simba backtesting chart that I believe may capture the OP's idea in a more systematic manner. Click on it to see a larger version. Horizontal axis is a given starting year of a 30 years retirement cycle. Vertical axis is the corresponding...
by siamond
Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]
Replies: 64
Views: 3918

Re: Diversification Can Improve Retirement Outcomes (SWR) [Very Long Post]

I've always had an issue with volatility being equated with risk. If one is using past performance anyways, it seems like a better and more functional measure for risk would be related to SWR. Standard deviation is obviously much easier to calculate and work with, but it's correlation with true ris...
by siamond
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it bad to have nothing in taxable when you retire?
Replies: 62
Views: 6590

Re: Is it bad to have nothing in taxable when you retire?

The bottomline is that taxable accounts can be very handy for tax planning when you have them. But they are by no mean necessary, and shouldn’t be a goal in itself.
by siamond
Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates

What exactly is the worry, how will a big change in LTCG affect you? Due to my work trajectory, we have ~60% of our savings in taxable and ~40% in tax-advantaged (most in tIRA). We paid a good deal of taxes in the past while I was working (high tech job + my investment mistakes). Now that I early r...
by siamond
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates

I guess you have a very good crystal ball! I don't trust mine enough to "know" that the TCJA won't expire as scheduled. No crystal ball whatsoever, I have zero clue what will happen. I am just 99% sure the tax code will change again and again, that's all, so I don't want to make overly complex mode...
by siamond
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates

It seems to me the only way to assume of "no change to tax laws" is to assume that TCJA tax rates will end in 2025. Otherwise you would be counting on a new bill getting passed, right? For the sake of a sensitivity analysis, it could be useful to also run the numbers for a renewal of TCJA. I see yo...
by siamond
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates
Replies: 47
Views: 2525

Re: Roth Conversions - Estimating Future Tax Rates

My current strategy (pretty simplistic) is to simply use the latest tax rates (e.g. 2018 Fed and State Taxes) for all of my future year predicted income. I s there a better way? Options: 1. Revert back to the pre TCJA rates in 2026 and onwards? 2. Adjust Tax brackets for inflation? 3. Use current T...
by siamond
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I have enough insurance?
Replies: 26
Views: 842

Re: Do I have enough insurance?

I agree that auto liability needs to catch up with typical 300k practices. Frankly, this is the only type of insurance that makes sense, something protecting you against a totally unexpected huge expense that would throw your life in tatters. About disability, check with your work, you may very well...
by siamond
Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 129
Views: 24528

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

The updated paper was finally published, as discussed on this new thread:
viewtopic.php?f=22&t=277535

Unfortunately, following the link to the underlying database, the dividends are still missing. I'll wait a few days and ping the authors...
by siamond
Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 129
Views: 24528

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything

This new thread should probably be merged with this older one , which discussed the same study. Funny, I thought this was a new study since it says "March 2019" on the title page of the paper. :D As you can see on the other thread, I've been actually waiting for their update for quite a while!
by siamond
Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 129
Views: 24528

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything

This new thread should probably be merged with this older one, which discussed the same study.
by siamond
Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US Bank credit cards bonus categories
Replies: 16
Views: 1378

Re: US Bank credit cards bonus categories

I've been pondering about this US Bank credit card too. So far, I wasn't too inclined to have to do something proactive every quarter with my credit cards, but well, I do have time on my hands... It just has to be worth it. We tend to regularly spend a good chunk of money on Entertainment (e.g. conc...
by siamond
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 388
Views: 99020

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Here are the dates for the next two Metro-Boston meetings, please mark your calendars. - Saturday June 8th, 10:15am to 12:15 (agenda centered on social security) - Saturday September 7th, from 1pm to 4pm (agenda tbd) If you are not already on my (e-)mailing list, please contact me via a private mess...
by siamond
Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....
Replies: 85
Views: 6114

Re: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....

KyleAAA wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:58 am
For real though, the Outlook 365 cloud version is dramatically superior to the installed version if you actually need Office.
What is it that you find so 'dramatically superior'? Just trying to understand...
by siamond
Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to change the expected real returns in my model
Replies: 47
Views: 1733

Re: Good idea to change the expected real returns in my model

There is a fairly weak correlation between CAGR and SWR. There are some nice plots that Siamond did that gets reposted regularly that shows this pretty nicely. Does your model assume straight line growth? If so, I would suggest fixing that before agonizing too much over whether it is 3% or 2.5% ret...
by siamond
Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to change the expected real returns in my model
Replies: 47
Views: 1733

Re: Good idea to change the expected real returns in my model

Sounds like a terrible idea, overreacting to whatever gloomy thinking crossed your path recently... :twisted:

OP, you really didn't provide much context though... What's your AA? What's your time horizon? Why are you asking? Etc.
by siamond
Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....
Replies: 85
Views: 6114

Re: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....

Hosted software comes with a different cost profile; someone has to pay for operating and maintaining the servers. But in any case, a good marketer would actually price the subscription and perpetual license options as NPV equivalent (assuming the features are identical) for the customer. Pricing h...
by siamond
Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help create a Financial Presentation: Calling all Bogleheads
Replies: 129
Views: 24331

Re: Help create a Financial Presentation: Calling all Bogleheads

And an older one that I didn't share yet. Wiki updated.

This is a talk about "Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)". Format is Powerpoint: https://tinyurl.com/y9pvgeln.
by siamond
Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....
Replies: 85
Views: 6114

Re: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....

I suspect the security model of Office 365 is better. If you buy MS Office then you "lock" on a particular year and eventually they stop updates. And (hypothesis) the security updates will be less frequent or at least less quick. speculation The internet is all about security now - security and aut...
by siamond
Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....
Replies: 85
Views: 6114

Re: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....

I might end up buying Office 2019 (flat fee) in a year or two, just because it is glaringly obvious that this will probably be the last version without a recurring subscription... I am not in a rush though. If Microsoft supports its stand-alone versions for 10 years (see the discussion above about ...
by siamond
Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....
Replies: 85
Views: 6114

Re: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....

Are you suggesting that, architecturally speaking, real time document collaboration does not require centralized hosting? You can architect it the way you want (easier with a centralized component, although it doesn't have to be), this is a technical & architectural matter. The pricing scheme (recu...
by siamond
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....
Replies: 85
Views: 6114

Re: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....

Ok, I understand your specific situation. I still don't understand why so many posts supporting the subscription model. I mean, I've looked at software subscription models from the other side (as part of a strategy & planning team) a few years ago, and really, the only point was to improve the comp...
by siamond
Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help create a Financial Presentation: Calling all Bogleheads
Replies: 129
Views: 24331

Re: Help create a Financial Presentation: Calling all Bogleheads

Here is a terrific presentation that was assembled for our local Metro-Boston chapter, which can be useful for other chapters and various educational opportunities. This is an introduction to "2018 Individual Income Taxes" (i.e. Income Tax Basics, What Changed For 2018). Format is Powerpoint, slides...
by siamond
Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conversion Strategy and a market drop
Replies: 22
Views: 1211

Re: Conversion Strategy and a market drop

Just wanted to add that if anybody is postponing their conversion waiting for a drop, then I would strong advise to have a clear plan. Mine: 1. if I see a drop in price of more than 10% compared to my first round of conversion (early Feb), I'll rush to do my 2nd round of conversion 2. if nothing lik...
by siamond
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conversion Strategy and a market drop
Replies: 22
Views: 1211

Re: Conversion Strategy and a market drop

Anyone holding off on converting to ROTH in anticipation of the market dropping? What is your reasoning for or against? I am. I have a conversion target for the year, I did 60% of it and decided to hold off on the rest and see if something happens. Let me clear. This is dumb. I just got angry at my...
by siamond
Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1606
Views: 99250

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Not confusing rebalancing, just misunderstood the source of that data and figured the poster had just multiplied annual returns by 3x. Thank you for the correction. In that case, only the 2nd portion of my post is correct; the discrepancy between this drawdown and the one privatefarmer asked about ...
by siamond
Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....
Replies: 85
Views: 6114

Re: Best place to buy Microsoft Office 2019....

Actually I started my quest looking for a good price on Office 2019. However, after doing some research that I should have done BEFORE my quest, I discovered Office 2019 wouldn't work. Wife has two machines, running Windows 7 and Windows 10. My PC runs Windows 8.1. She has many applications she use...