Search found 547 matches

by ge1
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 13150

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

We left NYC for NC 10 years ago (Raleigh Durham area). Best thing we ever did.
by ge1
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Voting One's Shares
Replies: 9
Views: 508

Re: Voting One's Shares

I think proxy material typically need to be sent out at least 30 days before the meeting. At least that‘s what I‘m seeing in my holdings. You could go to your company‘s website and check the SEC filings, you would find the proxy there. I like the process with Fidelity much better, with Fidelity i ca...
by ge1
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share your experience if you timed the market
Replies: 38
Views: 2454

Re: Share your experience if you timed the market

I had a low allocation in stocks going into this (around 40%) and increased to a high of 70% in March. I since sold all of it and I‘m back to 40% as I don‘t think this rally can continue. Nothing earth shattering, added approx 3% to my annual return. So round 1 has worked out well, but who knows how...
by ge1
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What opportunities are there to take advantage of the coronavirus situation?
Replies: 26
Views: 3789

Re: What opportunities are there to take advantage of the coronavirus situation?

I think this - as dramatic as it is for many people - could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to truly change certain habits for the better. What I discovered for myself so far: - I had this huge pile of books I amassed over the years which I never had the time or rather patience to read. And I'm ...
by ge1
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32872

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

I think stock valuations became disconnected from EPS and economic reality long before the pandemic. It's all about the speculative return now. This. Spot on. I don’t think the rally will last, but have been wrong many times before. In the meantime, I’m doing probably something similar to Livesoft ...
by ge1
Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?
Replies: 180
Views: 11012

Re: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?

Just adding to my earlier post (our expenses are down 25%): This has been eyeopening really to see how much less money we can spend. It made me realize that if we really had to we could basically retire now (age 48) with our current portfolio. Not to mention the fact that I feel like I'm spending mo...
by ge1
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19406

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Can't thank you enough for this. There is probably some easy way to get this, but I could not figure it out. Every once in a while I get a gem info wise from Bogleheads and this is one of those. FYI in case you're interested.... I was lucky enough to have made some moves early during this whole thi...
by ge1
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19406

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I find it exceptional that the S&P is where it is right now. As reference, the 2008/09 bear market bottomed at 8x peak earnings, that would take the S&P to 1100-1150. I fully expect the S&P go down to 1500, probably lower. That multiple on peak earnings is what I am looking closely at. Do you happe...
by ge1
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?
Replies: 180
Views: 11012

Re: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?

Down significantly, probably 25-30%. Our biggest expense is travel, which is not happening now. Received 6k back from airlines for flights / hotels no longer possible. Shopping less as well, DW can’t do her hair appointments / massages :happy
by ge1
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19406

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I find it exceptional that the S&P is where it is right now. As reference, the 2008/09 bear market bottomed at 8x peak earnings, that would take the S&P to 1100-1150. I fully expect the S&P go down to 1500, probably lower. That multiple on peak earnings is what I am looking closely at. Do you happe...
by ge1
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19406

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

... One difference between 2008 and now is that in 2008 it was a systemic problem, for which there might not be a solution except for a complete unraveling of the system. This time, there is no real problem except for a temporary virus which will eventually go away, or having the virus around might...
by ge1
Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19406

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The S&P 500 is currently at early-2019 levels. That doesn't seem that disastrous, for one of the biggest crises in U.S. history. So is the coming pain really priced in at current levels? The coming pain will be: even more massive debts than before, small businesses defaulting on loans and shutting ...
by ge1
Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9497

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

This week: Goldman sees 2021 S&P 500 EPS rising back to $170. With a 15 PE multiple, that puts the S&P 500 at 2,550. Which makes current prices not a bargain or firesale. Just kind of 'meh'. Don't take this the wrong way, but never ceases to amaze me how people play games with earnings and P/E rati...
by ge1
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9497

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

But the S&P will not be 2,600 a few weeks / months from now, it will be much lower. Maybe true, but long-term investors shouldn't be thinking about the prospects for stocks in the next few weeks or months. It's the outlook for U.S. stocks over the next 10, 20 or 30 years that should matter most to ...
by ge1
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9497

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

I totally agree with the OP, S&P @ 2,600 makes absolutely no sense. Q2 GDP is going to decrease by 30%... 30%, just think about that for a second. I can‘t even imagine what earnings will look like. Anybody who thinks economic activity and earnings will just bounce back to prior levels is smoking som...
by ge1
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Replies: 103
Views: 7180

Re: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis

I realized in 2008/09 that we had too much in equities, so over the years i decreased our allocation to stocks to 40% due to low need to take risk and valuation concerns. That low allocation to stocks allowed me to buy stocks opportunistically in the last 2 weeks (and in most cases sell them again a...
by ge1
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any high bracket investors dumping munis?
Replies: 127
Views: 9600

Re: Any high bracket investors dumping munis?

I had approx 300k in muni funds (VWLTX and VWITX) and sold them all a few weeks ago for the reasons you mentioned. I learned in the 2008/2009 crisis that muni prices can decrease a lot in times like these.
by ge1
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you realized that you had too much in equities, sell now
Replies: 19
Views: 2471

Re: If you realized that you had too much in equities, sell now

I would say it's ok to lower your allocation if you are not comfortable. Yes you lock in losses but take the possibility of bigger losses off the table if things really get bad. My thoughts precisely. That‘s exactly my point. Reading some posts I hear people say „I realized I have too much in equit...
by ge1
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?
Replies: 92
Views: 6966

Re: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?

The answer is yes. Purely from an investing perspective, recessions and bear markets can be amazing opportunities to build wealth. Even now, I went into this downturn with a high cash balance and used the last 2 weeks to trade in and out of equities and generated extra returns otherwise not availabl...
by ge1
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64591

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Now assume that what you saw turns out to be temporary - like the tourist town in the off season, or shutting down to go on vacation together for a few weeks. Would that change your view at all? I'm playing Devil's advocate here, but I'm still unable to reconcile 'shutting down for a while' with '2...
by ge1
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now
Replies: 77
Views: 9518

Re: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now

The worst thing you could do is immediately invest all the money in stocks again... And then maybe the markets tanks another 20% and you will panic again... I would suggest you invest some of the money back in the market tomorrow, maybe 30%? That way you are back in the market and participate in any...
by ge1
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you realized that you had too much in equities, sell now
Replies: 19
Views: 2471

If you realized that you had too much in equities, sell now

This is a post for those who were terrified a few days ago and realized that they had too much in equities: The market has just given you a 20% present (S&P increase from the low). Sell now down to the level where you are comfortable with your allocation to stocks. Don't get greedy and tell yourself...
by ge1
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64591

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

S&P 500 reported earnings in 2019 were $140, so the P/E ratio at current levels is over 17. And that's before earnings will decrease significantly in 2020 due to the virus, it's anybody's guess how low they will fall. Does not sound like a bear market bottom to me. As reference in the 2008/2009 rece...
by ge1
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9691

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

I was 40/60 stocks/bonds due to low need to take risk and my impression that US markets were overvalued. Age 48. I increased that to 70/30 in recent weeks due to some very attractive valuations, primarily in INTL and US Large Cap. As prices recover I will decrease allocations to stocks again. Neutra...
by ge1
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What have you learned from this situation that you will take action on?
Replies: 158
Views: 14916

Re: What have you learned from this situation that you will take action on?

I didn't learn anything financially. My allocation to stocks was low going into this due to low need to take risk & belief that US markets were overvalued. I have increased my allocation to stock significantly over the last few weeks (from 40% to 70%) and will decrease that again should markets boun...
by ge1
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?
Replies: 30
Views: 2383

Re: For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?

I have been steadily buying over the last 2 weeks. I don't try to time the market bottom (which is impossible), however simple math tells me that when broad index funds are down 30%-40% in a few weeks, I probably have a strong chance of locking in strong returns going forward. It always amazes me th...
by ge1
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 358
Views: 34970

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Thanks WCI, couldn‘t agree more. There is probably something „wrong“ with my personality, but big sell offs like these don‘t phase me at all, I‘m actually excited about the fact that I can invest at levels 30-40% lower than 1 month ago. Don‘t get me wrong, I‘m not excited that people are losing thei...
by ge1
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are you supporting your community?
Replies: 60
Views: 3306

Re: How are you supporting your community?

Lots of good ideas everybody, keep them coming!

Very impressed by the generosity of the people on this forum - but then again I‘m not surprised.

Keep it up, there are a lot of people / businesses out there who need our support.
by ge1
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are you supporting your community?
Replies: 60
Views: 3306

How are you supporting your community?

Rather than talking about the market turmoil, I was curious in what ways bogleheads are supporting their community in this difficult time? We are still getting take outs from our local restaurants and I started to tip generously. To my surprise my hair dresser was still open today and I tipped her g...
by ge1
Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?
Replies: 15
Views: 1759

Re: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?

Buying opportunity.
by ge1
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13136

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

@onourway Check out the performance of BND on the Vanguard website, it‘s including dividends. And the recent drop in prices is not at all explained by duration risk. I sold my remaining holdings in BND around 86.50 and the ETF now trades at 80.80. That‘s a decrease over 6%. And it happened in a peri...
by ge1
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13136

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

Thanks for all the good responses. My main point is that on my bond side of the portfolio, I really don’t want any credit risk. I agree that the Vanguard Total Bond fund is only down 3.2% YTD - but that is likely going to increase and frankly I don’t want to lose any money in my bond holdings. The V...
by ge1
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6450

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

August 2026.
by ge1
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13136

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

Huygens wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:00 am Or you can consider owning bond funds constituted of various US Treasuries. Vanguard has at least three that I can think of.
Agree, good point.
by ge1
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13136

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

My Treasury bond funds (long nominal, short TIPS) are doing what I expected them to do. So I wouldn't say bond funds don't work in a crisis. Certain kinds of bonds don't do well in a crisis, but that's true whether they're in bond funds or not. Agree, fair point. Should have said bond funds with cr...
by ge1
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13136

Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

I learned this lesson in the Financial Crisis and it's interesting to see that it is happening again: In a true crisis, you want your safe investments either in a money market account or US treasuries. Or own bonds outright. Diversified bond funds (such as VBMFX / ETF BND) or diversified Muni Bond F...
by ge1
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 55361

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

Worked remotely full time before the crisis, so no change. It‘s actually a welcome change, as I don‘t need to travel. I realize I‘m in a very lucky position.
by ge1
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9691

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

Age 48. was 40/60 stocks / bonds before the crisis due to low need to take risk and the view that US equities were overvalued.

Moved in the last week to 60/40, may increase that to 70/30 if stocks drop further.
by ge1
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 349
Views: 29960

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Down over 600k, from approx $4m to 3.4m.

Using the correction to increase allocation to stocks from 40% to 60% after buying more today. Willing to go up to 70% should the selling continue.
by ge1
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is continuing to buy as planned?
Replies: 119
Views: 8398

Re: Who is continuing to buy as planned?

I'm increasing my buying.

We had a low allocation to stocks (40%) going into this, I plan to increase this to 60% over the next few months. Bought 4-5% on Thursday (also to rebalance), will buy for another 2-3% today. I expect this will go on for a while though, so I'm taking my time.
by ge1
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 26763

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

The Financial Crisis was a great teacher. I had too much stocks going into that one and realized being down 40% on your overall portfolio is no fun. Have since lowered my allocation to stocks to only about 40% due to low need to take risk. Even so we are probably down 400k. The human component aside...
by ge1
Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4012
Views: 309503

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Wow, fellas. This is the bogleheads forum, no? Long term investing according to one’s willingness, ability and need to take risk? Sticking with AA through thick & thin? I get that sensational headlines are everywhere, but let’s just all chill out and realize that risks (of all sorts) are part of the...
by ge1
Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to Move to Switzerland and Still be a Boglehead
Replies: 18
Views: 2886

Re: How to Move to Switzerland and Still be a Boglehead

One additional point: If you end up contributing to your companies‘ Swiss pension system (2. pillar), it‘s actually not a big deal to have it paid out when you leave the country. It will simply be taxed and you can then invest as after-tax money.
by ge1
Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to Move to Switzerland and Still be a Boglehead
Replies: 18
Views: 2886

Re: How to Move to Switzerland and Still be a Boglehead

We spent a year in Switzerland on a work assignment some time back. Following feedback: - At the time we kept our house in the US, which we rented to a friend, so I kept all my US accounts and didn’t even change the address. I don’t even know if Vanguard would have an issue if you changed your addre...
by ge1
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $2-2.5M House?
Replies: 77
Views: 7846

Re: $2-2.5M House?

Hi BHs, I need some perspective from the collective group on my current situation. The short of it is this: My wife and I (both in mid-30s) have a collective W2 income of $750,000. This income has grown over the last five years, but we've earned more than $500,000 together since 2015. We both inten...
by ge1
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Stop Watching the Market (I know it's just that simple. But is it?)
Replies: 33
Views: 2109

Re: How to Stop Watching the Market (I know it's just that simple. But is it?)

You can look just don't act on it. ^^^This^^^ I read the highlights of the market, and check my accounts every day. I update a spreadsheet to track monthly balances. I'm OCD like that, and I neither can nor want to fight it because it's who I am. I just don't lose my discipline and make rash decisi...
by ge1
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point is this a bubble?
Replies: 157
Views: 14347

Re: At what point is this a bubble?

I agree that certain part of the markets most definitely seem to be in a bubble (Tesla with a market cap of almost 150bn for example), primarily US Tech. Other part of the markets seem fine (international, energy for example). The difficult part is what to do with it. In my portfolio I overweigh US ...
by ge1
Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 968
Views: 133850

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Mid 40s, 2 kids in school. We have 4m now excluding house, should be close to 5m later in the year due to a large payout.

I actually enjoy working, so retirement isn’t really something I consider, but would want at least 7m to retire at this age. Obviously we could retire with less.
by ge1
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: James Montier (Emerging Markets vs US)
Replies: 35
Views: 1928

Re: James Montier (Emerging Markets vs US)

Short answer: No. I followed GMO closely for many years. As others said, their newsletters are well written and very informative. Their multi year asset class forecast however have been spectacularly wrong for many years, especially when it comes to Emerging Markets. Over many, many years following...