Search found 48 matches

by hagridshut
Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 12851

Re: Feeling Good.

But Taylor's posts this year have been like death by a thousand cuts. Every time I turn to this website I am reminded just how bad SCV is, contributing to my self doubt. It's with mixed emotion that I won't be returning here. As someone who started out 10 years ago with about 20% of their 401(k) st...
by hagridshut
Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Importance of Simplicity"
Replies: 24
Views: 2345

Re: "The Importance of Simplicity"

From a practical standpoint, simplicity helps people conserve brainpower. My main 3-fund index portfolio requires little oversight other than a weekly check (to make sure the account hasn't had any unauthorized activity), and a yearly rebalance. If I had to make decisions about allocations to 10 or ...
by hagridshut
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 12463

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

In general, I am a "good enough" investor, at least where my retirement accounts (100% index funds) are concerned. However, I do invest some discretionary funds outside my 401(k) and IRAs, into individual "Moonshot" stocks that I believe, based on my industry expertise, have a chance of growing an o...
by hagridshut
Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10533

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

I started investing right before the .com bubble burst. Saw my meagre S&P 500 fund holdings crushed in 2001, which took years to recover. Kept investing and built up a modest sum by 2008, which again lost about 50% of its value in the panic of the GFC. Through both crashes, I held my shares and adde...
by hagridshut
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055540

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I just looked at my portfolio from yesterday, I had the biggest one day, at closing, money drop ever. I have more money in there then I ever had so that is the problem; more money, more problems. :? What happened to never checking your portfolio? Don't count the money when you're still sitting at t...
by hagridshut
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12071
Views: 2055540

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I agree that the news media is generally incentivized to sow fear in order to get clicks.

Uncertainty is part of the game. People who can develop and maintain resistance to fear of uncertainty in the financial markets will have an advantage over those who sell out of panic.
by hagridshut
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3034

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:00 pm
1% returns is ridiculous. Equity return over the next 10 years will be solidly negative.
runner3081 wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:11 pm
These discussions crack me up. No one knows. Anyone who thinks they knows is full of themselves :)
:shock:
by hagridshut
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 115
Views: 10490

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

HawkeyePierce wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:47 am
gotta say, I don’t think anything good comes from watching CNBC. :wink:
My friends in the financial industry almost all consider CNBC to be a joke: either "Jerry Springer"-like entertainment for people in the know, or a tool to manipulate rubes.
by hagridshut
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 92
Views: 10283

Re: this time it's different

I disagree that Secular Stagnation (aka long-term lack of growth) is inevitable. From the article, proponents of Secular Stagnation operate under the assumption that everything has been invented and built, and that there's not much left to be done: This Upside Down economy was the product, Hansen sa...
by hagridshut
Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements, HumbleDollar, viewing Vanguard with unease: "Whither Vanguard?"
Replies: 54
Views: 7483

Re: Clements, HumbleDollar, viewing Vanguard with unease: "Whither Vanguard?"

Yesterday I decided to log on to my Vanguard account. I noticed on the main web page that they were heavily promoting their active funds. Large banner ads all over the front page about their "flying under the radar" actively managed funds. Another banner about how all of their original funds were a...
by hagridshut
Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront now offers 2.51% APY
Replies: 83
Views: 9692

Re: Wealthfront now offers 2.51% APY

How long will these relatively high rates last, especially if the Federal Reserve sets a lower target rate this week? Evidently, 3 days. :o Wealthfront reduced their rate to 2.32% Thanks for posting the update. This shows that it's not worth going to too much trouble to chase the current highest ra...
by hagridshut
Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Complacency
Replies: 77
Views: 6199

Re: Boglehead Complacency

>> many threads where people are looking to increase risk, rather than make preparations for the eventual drop Right now we are overdue for a correction in the concentration of tech stocks in the S&P 500. We are also overdue for massive growth in International Stocks. I am not of the opinion that s...
by hagridshut
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17646

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

Vanguard's own forecast projects higher returns over the next decade for International stocks vs. U.S. stocks. Changing asset allocation based on forecasts is performance chasing. I believe that the only people who can claim they are not performance chasing, are those who are going global weight in...
by hagridshut
Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17646

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

As far as I can tell, the arguments for higher international allocations for U.S. investors seems to be performance chasing (based on various forecasts of future returns), a believe that they can find an optimal mix with some uncorrelated "diversification benefit" (despite no way of knowing what wi...
by hagridshut
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17646

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

Whatever you do regarding International, don't spend hours reading about it. If that's you, you probably need to be at the 20% level and just forget it and stick to it and rebalance every year or so. I realized this was me several years ago and chose 25% as I wanted to be right down the middle betw...
by hagridshut
Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront now offers 2.51% APY
Replies: 83
Views: 9692

Re: Wealthfront now offers 2.51% APY

How long will these relatively high rates last, especially if the Federal Reserve sets a lower target rate this week? If someone moved cash from Citibank at 2.36% APY to Wealthfront at 2.51% APY, the gain would be 0.0015, or $15 per year for each $10,000 on deposit. I can see that moving cash makes ...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2595
Views: 1652125

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Given the lackluster performance of VTIAX do you still feel it should still be a component of the 3 fund portfolio? In the decade prior to the Great Recession, I believe that International stocks actually outperformed U.S. stocks. While the U.S. markets have outperformed since 2009, largely due to ...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17646

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

This is one subject where I respectfully disagree with Mr. Bogle. More than a decade ago, my 401(k)'s stock allocation was roughly 80/20 U.S./International. I have gradually moved that allocation over the course of years to 60/40 U.S./International, where it will stay. U.S. stocks have had a fantast...
by hagridshut
Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 241
Views: 21697

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Stocks: 60% U.S., 40% International. Bonds: 100% U.S. I started at 80% U.S. stocks and 20% International stocks. Gradually moved to current "approximate global weight" in stocks over the course of years. My 401(k) plan does not provide access to International bonds. After some reading, I reached th...
by hagridshut
Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 241
Views: 21697

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Stocks: 60% U.S., 40% International. Bonds: 100% U.S. I started at 80% U.S. stocks and 20% International stocks. Gradually moved to current "approximate global weight" in stocks over the course of years. My 401(k) plan does not provide access to International bonds. After some reading, I reached the...
by hagridshut
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: To Avatar or Not - Get One? How did you choose?
Replies: 147
Views: 13027

Re: To Avatar or Not - Get One? How did you choose?

HMS Vanguard (S28), Vanguard-class submarine
by hagridshut
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: which money market - banks or funds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1283

Re: which money market - banks or funds?

I use all 3 as well. 1. Local bank for easy of accessibility and other potentially useful services (like safe deposit box) 2. Online banks for higher interest rates w' FDIC insurance. I used to churn these accounts but stopped because it became annoying to manage. Still keep a few around because I l...
by hagridshut
Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have no problem managing my $5M portfolio - scared of my Dad's $120k
Replies: 45
Views: 3492

Re: Have no problem managing my $5M portfolio - scared of my Dad's $120k

My father is 69 years old and has never been a net saver. He had money problems based largely in an inability to limit his spending on material items throughout his 30-60s. He currently earns approximately $80k a year and will most likely have to work another 5+ years. The great news is that he wor...
by hagridshut
Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner Retirement Portfolio Questions
Replies: 12
Views: 1147

Re: Beginner Retirement Portfolio Questions

2. How do I transfer my retirement account to Vanguard or another company after I leave my current employer? And what fees/taxes/ etc should I be aware of when doing this. It's been a few years since my last rollover. From what I recall, after leaving my previous employer, I contacted the 401(k) pl...
by hagridshut
Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner Retirement Portfolio Questions
Replies: 12
Views: 1147

Re: Beginner Retirement Portfolio Questions

I want my desired allocation to be 90% stocks 10% bonds 1. I want to be able to have a simple three or four index fund portfolio with very low expenses and fees. I don't know how to narrow down my already big portfolio. Please help! A Three-Fund portfolio should have: (1) U.S. Stocks (2) Internatio...
by hagridshut
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: where to put cash holdings
Replies: 7
Views: 1435

Re: where to put cash holdings

Vanguard money market funds are great places to keep cash holdings. If you open an account, it comes with a Federal Money Market fund for a settlement fund. The current SEC yield is 2.27%. Once the account is open, you can set up transfers to and from your bank checking account. I agree with this. ...
by hagridshut
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2595
Views: 1652125

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

If you choose not to include international, your three fund can easily become a two fund. Total US Stock Market and Total US Bond Market and done. There is a 2-fund way to include international. Use (1) Total World Stock Index and (2) Total US Bond Market. This will global weight one’s equity holdi...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Bond Fund - yes or no?
Replies: 61
Views: 4982

Re: International Bond Fund - yes or no?

The reasons to avoid a modest small cap value tilt have been argued ad nauseum on this website, but this thread illustrates what I feel is the true hypocrisy of the 3-Fund Portfolio crowd. We constantly are told, "own the market, buy the haystack, don't make any active decisions in your portfolio c...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One bad decision - examples?
Replies: 67
Views: 6866

Re: One bad decision - examples?

I've seen way too many of these "one bad decision" disasters. Borrowing (margin) to Gamble: During the Dot Com bubble, I knew someone who took out a lot of margin to speculate on Internet stocks just as the market was reaching its peak. I am sure that many others tried this. When the bubble collapse...
by hagridshut
Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2595
Views: 1652125

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

My current primary investment account for the past few years is a company 401(k) plan with the majority of choices being lousy, active, high-ER funds. By some miracle however there are a small number of low-cost index funds, including: S&P500, International Index, and U.S. Bond Index. I just use the...
by hagridshut
Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why NO International Bond Index ??
Replies: 37
Views: 4796

Re: Why NO International Bond Index ??

I've been reading a lot of threads on the debate over whether to add/include International Bond Index funds to one's portfolio. One thing I have seen written here a few times is that International Bonds that are "hedged" to one's local currency do not provide diversification away from local currency...
by hagridshut
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?
Replies: 46
Views: 4500

Re: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?

Vanguard keeps sending emails encouraging conversion of funds to ETFs and it is splashed all over the web page upon login. I am feeling pressured by this and it is making me upset. I feel like they are trying to take some advantage over me through this. Why keep pushing and pushing? I never felt thi...
by hagridshut
Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconsider conventional 3- fund portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 1064

Re: Reconsider conventional 3- fund portfolio?

I've been an investor of the three fund portfolio for about 10 years now and have been happy with the simplicity and low expenses. My question is, with more and more companies choosing to not list publicly and changes to the political and economic landscape, should we be considering changing our in...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Million Dollar Car
Replies: 25
Views: 2763

Re: The Three Million Dollar Car

I’ve always thought that a slower but fun car was a much better choice than a fast and fun car. A new Honda Civic or Mazda3 can be wrung out without being dangerous or illegal much of the time. Both cars have decent suspensions, manual transmission availability, and the practicality of sedan or hatc...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​
Replies: 42
Views: 4627

Re: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​

The haystack is the global market. 1. Why? Because the global market encompasses all stocks, regardless of winners and losers. All stocks worldwide = total haystack of all stocks available. 2. Which global market? There are global markets for stocks, bonds, precious metals, electricity, commodities...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Vanguard Target Retirement and LifeStrategy hold "Investor" rather than "Admiral" shares?
Replies: 7
Views: 1004

Why do Vanguard Target Retirement and LifeStrategy hold "Investor" rather than "Admiral" shares?

Vanguard's Target Retirement funds are a fund of these funds: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund Investor Shares* Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund Vanguard Short-Ter...
by hagridshut
Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​
Replies: 42
Views: 4627

Re: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​

I'll go against the consensus and recommend 0% international. International has been a horrible investment. International has been crushed by the S&P 500. I wouldn't touch international with a 10 foot pole. I'll also go against the consensus and recommend 0% S&P 500. The S&P has been a horrible inv...
by hagridshut
Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 15223

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

The only thing I can add to this thread is my personal experience leading up to the 2008 crash. I was looking to purchase my first home starting around 2005. The real estate market was so hot that if you were a buyer there was an incredible sense of urgency to buy something you liked as soon as pos...
by hagridshut
Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Jitters
Replies: 25
Views: 2299

Re: Asset Allocation Jitters

Everything I read tells me that we "should" have an asset allocation of 80/20 stocks to bonds (not counting short term reserves) considering our age and when my husband plans to retire. We are at 60/40 and I can't seem to pull the trigger to change our allocation. I'm too nervous about carrying mor...
by hagridshut
Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling Your Money
Replies: 47
Views: 11757

Re: Doubling Your Money

What is a reasonable expectation or rule of thumb for doubling (in real terms) your stock market holdings, assuming you reinvest dividends? For a balanced portfolio that roughly mirrors the Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (80% stocks and 20% bonds, both diversified globally), my expectation is 5-...
by hagridshut
Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Converting Vanguard Mutual Funds To ETFs"
Replies: 29
Views: 3610

Re: "Converting Vanguard Mutual Funds To ETFs"

This is going to have to be the next topic I add to my “don’t read these threads” list along with International. I actually find the numerous ETF threads to be kind of funny from a psychological perspective. Too numerous or unnecessary choices tend to confuse people. My personal view on ETFs is tha...
by hagridshut
Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Freedom Index Funds Increase International Exposure
Replies: 15
Views: 1820

Re: Fidelity Freedom Index Funds Increases International Exposure

So what do Fidelity (and Vanguard) believe that a high percentage of Bogleheads don't? Answer: Buy the entire haystack because nobody knows for sure which pieces of the haystack will grow! :o I know that many people here are wary of International allocation because Total International has underperf...
by hagridshut
Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks .. talk me out of it
Replies: 31
Views: 2104

Re: Individual Stocks .. talk me out of it

I believe that most investors should not own individual stocks. Stock prices can take wild swings very quickly. Look at NVDA (nVidia Corp., maker of computer graphics chips and AI processors, which have been used to mine cryptocurrency). NVDA reaches almost $290/share last October, and rapidly colla...
by hagridshut
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 9528

Re: Excluding International All Together?

Here we go again... Can one of the many other US v ex-US threads just be “pinned” to the top of the board? It's the cognitive dissonance in action. As a result the "100% US forever and ever" crowd needs constant reinforcement of their views. The world market cap folks essentially seem to participat...
by hagridshut
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Talk
Replies: 47
Views: 5037

Re: Bitcoin Talk

I have studied Bitcoin, and I decided not to invest any resources in it, or any other cryptocurrency. My reasons are as follows: (1) Practically useless as actual money. Bitcoin is supposed to be an alternative to fiat currency like USD or Euro. However, Bitcoin does not work well as an actual curre...
by hagridshut
Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to store money savings for vacation home?
Replies: 7
Views: 1138

Re: Where to store money savings for vacation home?

Some combination of stock/bond/money market funds is likely your best bet, maybe I-Bonds also. I have a small cottage on a lake as summer vacation home, no place I would rather be in the summer months. Any fund recommendations? I was looking at the LifeStrategy funds but they don't have any MMF com...
by hagridshut
Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: want to buy a small safe
Replies: 14
Views: 1802

Re: want to buy a small safe

*Something smallish and fireproof with a modest locking mechanism, to keep your items from wandering off if you have parties / cleaning staff / kids. Not expected to prevent anyone determined from stealing the contents or the entire device. This is what I want. I don't want a safety deposit box. I ...
by hagridshut
Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to store money savings for vacation home?
Replies: 7
Views: 1138

Where to store money savings for vacation home?

Hello. I want to buy a vacation home, so I have started saving up for one. My time horizon right now is 10 years. I have a small sum to park/invest now, and I will add to this on a monthly basis. Where should I park the money? Right now bank accounts are not offering much interest. I think I can get...