Search found 268 matches

by hagridshut
Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Robinhood "videogame"
Replies: 35
Views: 2977

Re: The Robinhood "videogame"

This is just more "old man yells at cloud" fear mongering. The old guard doesn't like up and comers like Robinhood and want to shut Robinhood down and start charging commissions again. Robinhood has had a recent history of serious problems, which cost traders substantial amounts of money:...
by hagridshut
Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 251
Views: 13721

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]

I succumbed to the FOMO and finally purchased one share of TSLA today. Just felt like I'm the only guy left not getting rich off of it. So I guess it will start going down now. I remember feeling like I was the only person not getting rich on AAPL in 2012. AAPL has quadrupled since then, but I knew...
by hagridshut
Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1258% YTD
Replies: 78
Views: 8071

Re: 1258% YTD

However, lately I been getting too many temptations looking at individual stocks ..nonstop. I can't help myself but look at these crazy returns of 2020 for Nio Tesla Moderna Xpeng Overstock etc 1258% YTD on single stock is extraordinary and makes me think of what I could be doing with all that :mon...
by hagridshut
Sat Nov 28, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you define "asset", "investment", and "speculation"?
Replies: 62
Views: 3038

Re: How do you define "asset", "investment", and "speculation"?

How do you define "asset", "investment", and "speculation"? And why do you use those definitions? Asking because these terms seem to mean different things to different people. Thanks. Asset: anything that can be exchanged for money. Investment: buying an asset because ...
by hagridshut
Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silliest Investment Mistakes?
Replies: 165
Views: 12193

Re: Silliest Investment Mistakes?

Buying a small amount of individual stocks about 20 years ago, hoping that they would double in value within 2-3 years, which would fund the purchase of an expensive replacement notebook computer. I ended up losing half the $ when it came time to cash out, and buying a much less expensive computer t...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 251
Views: 13721

Re: Need reassurance - having FOMO

The difference between "mental pressure" from a crashing stock and a crashing market is pretty big. There is a real risk with an individual stock that it will go down, and stay down, or even go bankrupt. Individual companies don't win forever. A new competitor shows up, and your chosen st...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 251
Views: 13721

Re: Need reassurance - having FOMO

Much of the focus on Bogleheads is about the $ returns, but there's not much discussion about the collateral costs of those returns. NVDA is a good example: I invested all my money into NVIDIA because I believed in this company, long term. It has far outpaced the SP500 returning 100%. NVDA has had i...
by hagridshut
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share proof that no one knows nothing
Replies: 68
Views: 7096

Re: Share proof that no one knows nothing

The disturbing conclusion I've reached is that: if the generally intelligent and well-educated members of Bogleheads couldn't draw the correct conclusion on BTC and TSLA, the average investor is almost totally hopeless trying to fend for themselves. The transition away from Defined Benefit Pension ...
by hagridshut
Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash
Replies: 86
Views: 7751

Re: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash

Adequate liquidity to ride out turbulent periods (such as late 2008 and early 2020) is a critical aspect of asset allocation. Ray Dalio and his company are managing funds for institutions. They are focused on growth, so of course bonds and cash are not going to be a big part of their strategy. He do...
by hagridshut
Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share proof that no one knows nothing
Replies: 68
Views: 7096

Re: Share proof that no one knows nothing

Here are some classic ones: 2011 thread about bitcoin 2018 thread about Tesla Ironically, I researched both of these topics in depth because I'd lurked around this forum for many years. BTC and TSLA each generated an unusual amount of interest and conflict in this forum. Understanding Bitcoin was d...
by hagridshut
Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed up With Flagship
Replies: 291
Views: 19464

Re: Fed up With Flagship

What are the benefits of Flaship? I am capable of investing my money so why do I want a flagship? About 10-15 years ago, I think Flagship status came with a lot of free perks, like (1) access to a designated personal advisor at Vanguard and (2) free stock trading. With many people just investing in...
by hagridshut
Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

I really don´t think fully autonomous cars will ever will be able to drive safer than the average human on the roads we have today. I can imagine it being possible on roads that are equipped and maintained specifically for the purpose of autonomous driving. Maybe these roads will even have specific...
by hagridshut
Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

As for regulatory roadblock, I believe there are only 6 states in the US that currently allow truly autonomous (no driver) vehicles. But the real concern is what happens in our regulatory happy society when there is a high profile accident. It's inevitable. And we have many state and local governme...
by hagridshut
Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]
Replies: 242
Views: 23536

Re: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]

Do you buy Tesla even with the run up? Do you look for a Tesla dip? Do you get into an S&P 500 index or leveraged etf? It's like all the facts are there but I'm still not really entirely sure how I should react (except kicking myself for not betting the farm on Tesla about 6-10x now in the past...
by hagridshut
Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Another part that troubles me about Tesla's valuation is that every time the topic of competition comes up, everyone waves their hand and says, more or less, "the competition is behind and will never catch up." Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I have never been satisfied with plans that are b...
by hagridshut
Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Unfortunately, upmarket is where they're likely to be hit hardest. That's where Rivian and Lucid start hitting them next year and if you think Tesla has a big innovation lead over them, you need to do some homework. And VW Group includes Audi and Porsche. Your comment about Tesla expanding their le...
by hagridshut
Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

This is probably not accurate: 1. There are some unrealistic production capacity assumptions baked in. For example, 840k deliveries in 2021. 2021 production capacity for the 2 currently operating factories (Fremont and Shanghai) is about 775k. Fremont is not yet at 500k but will be soon, and Shangha...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you respond to this? [Conversation about buying individual stocks]
Replies: 51
Views: 3670

Re: How would you respond to this?

In a (non finance) professional forum I'm a member of the owner of the forum was talking about wanting to buy a shipping companies stock. When someone replied to "never buy individual company stock" the conversation was as follows: __________ Why the hell not? Since 2004 my entire IRA por...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]
Replies: 242
Views: 23536

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

IMO Tesla's inclusion is an argument for preferring VTI to VOO, or avoiding cap weighted altogether and holding Min Vol. At least with VTI one would have owned this garbage from the beginning. 1% of one's portfolio could go up in smoke and the presence of Tesla is due to a committee. I believe that...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: About the financial news media...
Replies: 27
Views: 2036

Re: About the financial news media...

I have a very negative view of Mainstream Media financial news, for several reasons. The vast majority of it seems to be clickbait that is deliberately designed to maximize advertising revenue rather than provide useful information. This has the effect of pushing people to trade based on emotion, ra...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]
Replies: 242
Views: 23536

Re: Tesla IS getting added to the S&P

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] It seems (a bit to my own consternation :annoyed ) that the S&P announced Tesla is to be added to the S&P 500 in the December quarterly rebalance. There was a bit of hubbub earlier this year when they were not added even after having me...
by hagridshut
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share proof that no one knows nothing
Replies: 68
Views: 7096

Re: Share proof that no one knows nothing

Bitcoin (BTC) Check out this thread that started in 2011: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=76868 So much skepticism, and even hostility. I even count myself among those who were skeptical of BTC and did not invest. I knew nothing. BTC has been the best performing asset over ...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

The FSD beta did start to roll out around October 21st, 2020 : Tesla's long-promised Full Self-Driving mode reached its first customers in beta form a week and a half ago and we've already received a look at how the system operates on local roads, thanks to people on social media. Some report flawle...
by hagridshut
Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold/Silver Bullion
Replies: 28
Views: 2019

Re: Gold/Silver Bullion

A problem is transaction costs. If one wants to exchange gold or silver for fiat currency, there's going to be a price for conversion at a precious metals dealer. I always told our kids if something catastrophic were to happen, they would need guns, ammunition, food, water & gasoline. Sorry Tesl...
by hagridshut
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837193

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Seems the market doesn't know what to do. Less than two months ago, all-time highs well above February highs. Now, a roughly 8% drop in those two months. Par for the course and should be expected when investing in equities. I think because everyone is clueless about how the Coronavirus and 2020 U.S...
by hagridshut
Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where would you be if you had invested like a Boglehead from the beginning?
Replies: 107
Views: 7926

Re: Where would you be if you had invested like a Boglehead from the beginning?

I started as a total Boglehead in the late 90's. That was the correct move. I knew little about investing and the markets, and I wouldn't have been able to easily diversify because I lacked capital. Buying the S&P 500 Index was the logical way to start. Edit: Ironically, it was the website fool....
by hagridshut
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837193

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

If you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get. Charlie Munger My observation, based on the past 20+ years, is that most people can't toler...
by hagridshut
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

I haven't viewed Tesla as a car company for awhile now. It is true that the company currently derives most of its current revenue from automobiles, but the overall strategic vision is much broader: https://www.tesla.com/about Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable ene...
by hagridshut
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Did anyone see the FSD beta videos on youtube? It is pretty underwhelming. There are a lot of short clips of the FSD beta in specific situations, which unfortunately doesn't give overall context to how well the system currently performs. This 39 minute video along a commute route may give better in...
by hagridshut
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum
Replies: 107
Views: 9033

Re: Vanguard Abandoning Ship, Developing ‘New Brand Image’ has removed its ship logo from corporate docum

A more modern ship might be cool. I use the current HMS Vanguard (S28) as my user photo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Vanguard_(S28) The eleventh HMS Vanguard of the Royal Navy is the lead boat of her class of Trident ballistic missile-armed submarines.[1][2] The submarine is based at Faslane,...
by hagridshut
Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

I find it fascinating how strongly the general public has latched onto this "highly specialized solution" talking point on the basis of a single jealous Elon tweet. I've been seeing that rhetoric everywhere the past week. If you can map one city, you can pretty easily map another with a b...
by hagridshut
Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

GM Cruise and Waymo are also not General Purpose Self Driving Systems. Waymo is geofenced to Phoenix, AZ. Cruise is limited to San Francisco, CA. The cars and their systems won't take drivers out of the geofenced area. Tesla's solution is different because it is designed to operate everywhere , not...
by hagridshut
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Who created this chart, what is their expertise in the field The chart is from research report of Navigant Research / Guidehouse Insights - from Q1 2020. Who We Are Guidehouse Insights is a market intelligence team that provides emerging technology research, data, and benchmarking services for toda...
by hagridshut
Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

(2) I believe that the market currently values FSD at 0. Tesla first outlined its full FSD strategy at its autonomy day event on April 22, 2019 . The stock price was flat for many months afterward, as I noted in my post earlier in this thread . Tesla's stock price only began to march steadily upwar...
by hagridshut
Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Q3 TSLA GAAP income: $331M Regulatory credits: $397M Again, the actual business loses money. (1) It is mathematically incorrect to dismiss regulatory credits as non-money. That is real income paid by customers (other automakers), who would otherwise have to pay government fines that are much higher...
by hagridshut
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?
Replies: 91
Views: 5061

Re: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?

we would be talking about investing $50-100K in a risky basket of stocks, hoping to get a 10X multiplier over the coming decade in high-risk, high-potential companies that haven't already broken out completely (think: things that have recently IPO'd such as Palantir). I know this is a very common t...
by hagridshut
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7907

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

It seems too many people are so conditioned to failure so the only question asked is what if the return is lower than the index. What about what if the return is higher than the index? Isn't that a potentiality? Has anyone done this before to definitively say it doesn't work? Some selective stock p...
by hagridshut
Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7907

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

It seems too many people are so conditioned to failure so the only question asked is what if the return is lower than the index. What about what if the return is higher than the index? Isn't that a potentiality? Has anyone done this before to definitively say it doesn't work? Some selective stock p...
by hagridshut
Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now the time to think about active investing??
Replies: 32
Views: 3176

Re: Is now the time to think about active investing??

Should we be doing less passive index investing?? I don't think there's a blanket answer to this question. I believe that successful stock picking requires an investor to have 2 attributes: (1) Specialized skills and knowledge to spot opportunities that the broader market has missed, AND (2) The me...
by hagridshut
Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla battery day.
Replies: 69
Views: 5897

Re: Tesla battery day.

TSLA is proof that Jack Bogle was right. Generally speaking, "nobody knows nothing". Many people here have been shouting for years that TSLA is a terrible investment. Anyone who bought TSLA on IPO day and held those shares until the present is up over 10,500% in the past decade. By compari...
by hagridshut
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 12999

Re: Myth's of international investing - Fidelity

Both Vanguard and Fidelity recommend international asset allocations, up to 50%. So who are you going to believe, them or some anonymous US only posters in this forum? Neither :mrgreen: My perspective is that allocations need to be tailored towards each individual investor's risk tolerance. Some pe...
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A simpler car.
Replies: 233
Views: 16639

Re: A simpler car.

We have enough to buy whatever we want but I don't feel compelled spend $20-30k on a car... am I crazy? You may be able to get a car that is simple, inexpensive, and relatively new. I recommend something with a manual transmission and a naturally aspirated motor. A 2016-2017 Honda Civic with 6-spee...
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Replies: 87
Views: 12965

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

I believe that 100x moonshots are possible, but generally only for people who (1) have the expertise to spot an opportunity far earlier than others, and (2) are willing to tolerate long periods of underperformance and stress related to the stock holding. TSLA is an example that comes to mind. IPO wa...
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 5978

Re: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks

epicahab wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:25 pm Strange times, what do you all think?
FOMO.

A lot of people got rich on FAANG stocks, nVidia, and Cryptocurrency speculation.

The moment news broke that Warren Buffett was in on the Snowflake IPO, the event became a mad rush to get shares, almost without regard to cost.
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 160
Views: 12012

Re: Modern Indexing SP500

I started with S&P 500 Index funds in the 90's, and I don't think there has been a compelling reason to own one for years, unless they are the only option in a defined contribution plan for a diverse U.S. stock fund. Ditched them in the 2000's for Total Market Index funds. Total Market offers be...
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

He is bold, visionary and very smart. (so was Elizabeth Holmes) This is a poorly reasoned analogy. Elizabeth Holmes' company, Theranos, was never able to bring a working microscopic blood test product to market. Elon Musk's companies, on the other hand, have delivered. SpaceX is now a leading provi...
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Constantly promising technology will be delivered years early to jack up your stock price I see a lot of criticism that Tesla's self-driving is allegedly keeping the share price up. I do not believe this is justified. Tesla's "Autonomy Day" presentation was Monday, April 22nd, 2019: https...
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Constantly promising technology will be delivered years early to jack up your stock price and keep your company alive seems more like fraud than optimism. The guy is a top-class BS artist. Jacking up the stock price doesn't keep a company alive. Cash flow does. Tesla's products aren't "BS"...
by hagridshut
Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22752

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Tesla's factory in Shanghai has been undergoing a massive expansion that should triple or quadruple production capacity. The expansion is expected to begin production of the Model Y crossover for Asia markets late this year. Enthusiasts have been posting drone video footage of the factory expansion ...
by hagridshut
Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 160
Views: 12012

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

Yet another example here that Tesla is running a con game, with mostly willing players, of course. Everyone loves to be in on the grift until it falls apart. https://twitter.com/DougKass/status/1303325486815285248 Doug Kass is speculating without evidence. That is not an example of anything. He wri...