Search found 194 matches

by athrone
Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Explain a Bond Crash
Replies: 20
Views: 2802

Re: Explain a Bond Crash

Stocks are shares in a company. If the company goes bankrupt, your maximum loss is 100%. Bonds are shares of debt in a company/government. If the company/government defaults on that debt, your maximum loss is 100%. Stocks provide a variable rate of return. The return can vary wildly, e.g. -90% to +9...
by athrone
Mon Mar 04, 2013 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Unfortunate Truths About Investing
Replies: 27
Views: 5012

Re: 50 Unfortunate Truths About Investing

I have to disagree with this one though: "The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered." If I believe the above, I would never sleep at night - because if I am too comfy with my investments, I should be preparing for ruin... Point of bogleheads appro...
by athrone
Mon Mar 04, 2013 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with $20k
Replies: 23
Views: 3227

Re: What to do with $20k

Am I the only one who thinks it's strange for parents to give an 18 year old $20,000 and fail to give any instructions as to what he should do with it? OP, I would suggest you get through college without taking out any loans or getting into debt if you can. $20,000 sounds like a lot of money at your...
by athrone
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

My portfolio is 20% gold at the moment so I'd hardly call that sitting on the sidelines. I was responding to you, but not necessarily directing the comments to you. It's more of a Boglehead generalization. But let's be realistic, I doubt you are 20% gold at the moment, maybe 20% GLD. Not trying to ...
by athrone
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

I disagree with that assessment. [...] I think the main disagreement is whether gold is worth owning given it's characteristics, and if it is how much and under what conditions. You can disagree if you want, but look at your last line there. You are still trying to debate whether Gold is "wort...
by athrone
Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

What are stocks and why do people invest in them? That issue was settled long ago on this forum, so people can actually have some kind of meaningful discussion about investing in the stock market. Put it this way, the posters on this forum can't even advance the Gold argument past the problem defini...
by athrone
Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

As an engineer, he may be looking for a more solid reason that gold will be a store of value, inflation hedge, whatever in the future than merely, "it always has been." If there's such a solid reason, I don't recall seeing it in this discussion (or any of the others here). The problem is ...
by athrone
Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

1. I am an engineer. If you are an engineer, you should realize that you can't just walk up to a complex problem and expect to come up with a good solution without sufficient knowledge or experience. Anyone reading this thread with sufficient knowledge can see how elementary the level of understand...
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

A solution to the problem of world debt? Fritz Haber, Nobel Prize, Chem 1918 •Proposed paying Germany’s war reparations by extracting gold from ocean water •Gold in ocean is 6 parts per trillion or 6 kg for 1 km3 •Oceans = 1.37 billion km3 •Gold in oceans = 8.22 million metric tons •Value = $423 tr...
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

So either you: 1) Figure it's too unattractive/risky/not enough data and leave it out of your portfolio altogether. (Standard portfolio) 2) Figure you'll just take the pain in return for the insurance value. (Permanent Portfolio) 3) Figure on rotating in and out of gold based on real interest rates...
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

grayfox wrote:Isn't that 3rd category... Speculation?


I'd actually put Gold in a 4th category: Something Bogleheads don't understand :P
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 3663

Re: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years

Examples of our personal, 2 retired persons, spending in select years and categories: Category .......... 2000 ..... 2004 ..... 2008 ..... 2012 Groceries........$4024...$4418....$5299...$5341 Restaurant........2410....2418.....2297.....4305 Gasoline..........1281....1088.....1797.....1935 Utilities...
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 3663

Re: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years

bottlecap is hitting the nail on the head. Why do you insist on calling it "Personal Inflation" instead of "Personal Expenses"? OK, I'll call it personal expenses. Are you happy now ? Yes, I think it makes a big difference. I don't think anyone is surprised that one person can m...
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 3663

Re: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years

It appears that your basket of goods has changed, not that inflation hasn't occurred. JT Yes, I change my basket of goods so that my Personal Inflation is lower than CPI. But that means you are comparing apples to oranges. It's not a statement about inflation. JT bottlecap is hitting the nail on th...
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 3663

Re: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years

Cut-Throat wrote:Can you calculate his inflation on Gasoline?


Yes, because all of the other products, goods, and services he purchases or depends upon use Gasoline, including all of the components that were shipped from around the world to build his Chevy Volt. :oops:
by athrone
Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 3663

Re: Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years

Cut-Throat wrote:Inflation.....I have not seen much in 10 years


Has your eyesight changed much in the last 10 years? :P
by athrone
Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Gold Rally Over
Replies: 160
Views: 11378

Re: Is the Gold Rally Over

If we invoke the law of forums, that the number of positive posts about something means we are approaching a bubble, I wonder what it means that there are currently zero Gold discussions aside from one titled "Is the Gold Rally Over"
by athrone
Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund
Replies: 187
Views: 35412

Re: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond F

What is the point of holding an international bond fund that is hedged to remove the diversification benefit of international bonds? I'm going to go ahead and call it that 10 years from know, some of these threads about the Boglehead approach to "currency risk" will be featured on a top te...
by athrone
Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 2809

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

Harry Browne specifically recommends a large allocation to gold to protect against inflation. I'm sure craigr can chime in here, but I'm almost positive this is false. Can you point to the quote or passage in his books/podcasts where he says this? Even if he did say that, why are you staking your f...
by athrone
Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 2809

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world in 2012 and they were a net seller of gold. Germany is the 5th largest economy in the world and, despite moving some gold back home from the US and France over the next 6 years of so, was a net seller of gold last year. We've already established that th...
by athrone
Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 2809

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

Ok, I will be more direct. The title of this thread is a strange question. Strange enough IMHO and as respectively as possible, it indicates a fundamental misunderstanding of Gold by the OP. To use an example, it would be like asking "Are Equities the best inflation-fighting asset?" and th...
by athrone
Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 2809

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

The Fed knows that it is a central bank. I refuse to even consider that I could also be a central bank, and therefore feel no need to imitate a central bank's investment policy. Are you suggesting that what Gold is to Central Banks is different from what it is to private investors? Or are you not f...
by athrone
Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 2809

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

You're a student of gold history - when was the last time the US government bought gold if it's so valuable to them? With what funds do you purchase Gold when you run a perpetual trade deficit as a result of being the world's reserve currency? Can you name a super-producing country that is currentl...
by athrone
Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 2809

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

The reason for the thick walls is because you'd guard anything worth $10 TT. It doesn't, however, answer whether gold is an inflation hedge. It just answers that gold does in fact have value. The USG only has 8,000 tonnes out of the 170,000 in existence. It's only "worth" about $500 billi...
by athrone
Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 2809

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

Why would central banks hold 30,000 tonnes of Gold as an "inflation-fighting asset" when they "control" inflation? Why is there $10,000,000,000,000 in worldwide wealth allocated to Gold? Why is the U.S. gold guarded 24/7 and stored behind a 21" thick vault door weighing 25 t...
by athrone
Wed Feb 06, 2013 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $101,000 to 'play' with...what would you do?
Replies: 36
Views: 3329

Re: $101,000 to 'play' with...what would you do?

Would you take out a $176,000 personal loan at 5.1% in order to invest in the stock market? No? So why are you trying to do the same thing with your student loan?

Pay off the debt.
by athrone
Wed Feb 06, 2013 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iShares Emerging Markets Value ETF on Death Watch. Need Help
Replies: 21
Views: 3194

Re: iShares Emerging Markets Value ETF on Death Watch. Need

Is it really necessary to have 2-3% portfolio allocations?
by athrone
Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the market nearing a new high?
Replies: 58
Views: 7117

Re: Is the market nearing a new high?

What happens when you include taxes on dividends and capital gains?
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

I'm trying to picture what the responses would look like if someone created a new thread claiming the price of AAPL depends only on new shares issued each year, because everyone currently holding the 882 million outstanding shares has no intention to sell if the price rises.
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

I do not know of any indication that the US Government is prepared to speculate in gold. Do you? By the way, I was just adding my opinion that the supply demand equation for gold is less predictable than for other commodities. Why that is a subject for intense discussion, I do not know. Keith This ...
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

Because I don't think Uncle Sam is about to set up a flea market at Fort Knox. Keith First, Central Banks only hold 31,000 tonnes. So what about the other 140,000 tonnes? Second, why don't you think Uncle Sam would set up a flea market at Fort Knox? Is it really that their supply is not "avail...
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

And, most of the "supply" is held and not available? Keith What makes you think the 171,000 tonnes of "held" supply is "not available?" Possibly I misunderstand the definition or the amount of "supply". I just imagine that many who hold the supposed supply wo...
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

umfundi wrote:And, most of the "supply" is held and not available?
Keith


What makes you think the 171,000 tonnes of "held" supply is "not available?"
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

Why would annual mine supply of < 4000 tonnes impact the Gold price, when there is already 171,000 tonnes of supply available?
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford this House?
Replies: 57
Views: 4193

Re: Can I Afford this House?

With $750,000 in assets you can raise your stand of living above what you would normally have with a $68,000 income, no question about that. So the question is a personal one, which raises your standard of living more: upgrading from a $120,000 to $355,000 house, gaining the financial independence t...
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford this House?
Replies: 57
Views: 4193

Re: Can I Afford this House?

Another way to think about this question is to ask: I lucked out and have $750,000 in assets in my mid-20s, how should I best invest for my future? If you choose a modest house (which would better mesh with your per-inheritance lifestyle I would think), and simply stay on the same track you've been...
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford this House?
Replies: 57
Views: 4193

Re: Can I Afford this House?

Another way to think about this question is to ask: I lucked out and have $750,000 in assets in my mid-20s, how should I best invest for my future? If you choose a modest house (which would better mesh with your per-inheritance lifestyle I would think), and simply stay on the same track you've been ...
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford this House?
Replies: 57
Views: 4193

Re: Can I Afford this House?

You aren't just buying a $355,000 house, you are buying the lifestyle that comes along with it. At $68,000 single income with wife and soon to be kids, the math just doesn't add up IMHO.
by athrone
Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to help my husband switch companies/careers
Replies: 7
Views: 1698

Re: Moderator: please delete this post

Just put in a link to a Gold article, it should be deleted in a few seconds.
by athrone
Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If market drops 50% in a week will you rebalance?
Replies: 118
Views: 7572

Re: If market drops 50% in a week will you rebalance?

athrone wrote: What do you do if it drops another 50% on the second week? That is only a 75% total drop, and one that has occurred many times in the past, as recently as 2008 in some sectors. If you are 60/40 stocks/bonds, you would have lost 65% of your wealth in two weeks -- barely better than if...
by athrone
Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If market drops 50% in a week will you rebalance?
Replies: 118
Views: 7572

Re: If market drops 50% in a week will you rebalance?

If the market dropped 50% in a week. I'd go to 100% stock allocation. Depending on the cause, i would probably end up using my margin loan and going up to a 120% allocation. What do you do if it drops another 50% on the second week? That is only a 75% total drop, and one that has occurred many time...
by athrone
Mon Jan 21, 2013 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is bond diversification as important as stock diversificatio
Replies: 104
Views: 9136

Re: Is bond diversification as important as stock diversific

Do you live in a country where the Bonds are free of interest rate, inflation, or default risk? If so, then diversification is not necessary.
by athrone
Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing vs Investing in Berkshire Hathaway
Replies: 47
Views: 5388

Re: Indexing vs Investing in Berkshire Hathaway

I have made a lot of money simply by buying when others are fearful. I bough BP a while ago and made an almost 100% ROI, I bough gold and silver right before the recession and made over a 100% ROI, I bought HPQ recently which is up 45%. I plan to buy more of HPQ because I think it is under-valued l...
by athrone
Thu Jan 17, 2013 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k) loan interest double taxed myth?
Replies: 60
Views: 7753

Re: 401(k) loan interest double taxed myth?

401(k) loan interest is double taxed in the following sense: 1) You earn money, and it's taxed 2) After-tax dollars go into the 401(k) account as loan repayment 3) When you withdraw, you pay income tax again In your 1-2-3 step above, where did the un-taxed 401k loan money go? It is clear to see tha...
by athrone
Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany Repatriating Gold, 'In Case Of A Currency Crisis'
Replies: 3
Views: 675

Re: Germany Repatriating Gold, 'In Case Of A Currency Crisis

Athrone: What Germany does with its gold will have absolutely no effect on what I do with our portfolio. Stay the course. Best wishes Taylor I agree that picking an Asset Allocation and Staying the Course is the best strategy for investing. However, do you find there are ever any world events that ...
by athrone
Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Germany Repatriating Gold, 'In Case Of A Currency Crisis'
Replies: 3
Views: 675

Germany Repatriating Gold, 'In Case Of A Currency Crisis'

Excerpt: "Germany’s central bank announced Wednesday it will repatriate gold reserves held at the New York Fed and the Banque de France in order to have “the ability to exchange gold for foreign currency […] within a short space of time.” Officials at the Bundesbank indicated they have no inten...
by athrone
Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

So, From the OP's link which started this thread: m Where it is asserted of Gold that: "it's not a good hedge of currency risk." If it is not a good hedge of currency risk, then what on earth are national banks, such as the Bundesbank, thinking when the Bundesbank spokesman comments on the...
by athrone
Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

Why would Germany ask to move 700 tonnes of "useless" metal, if not for trust issues? Either the trust by the German leaders or the German public. Already the news states it will take seven years to deliver 300 tonnes, which is only $16.2 billion at today's prices. Why even bother to put i...
by athrone
Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

larryswedroe wrote:athrone
Whether we hold Germany's gold or they hold it why should it matter?
Larry


Because financial/credit markets operate on trust. Doesn't it matter whether I trust a bank to hold my money, or I hold it at home?
by athrone
Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8410

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

Larry,

How do events like this factor into your analysis of the Gold market?

Germany Wants Its Gold Back—Should You Worry?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100382718

-athrone