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by Rick Ferri
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Day 2018
Replies: 73
Views: 7116

Re: Amazon Prime Day 2018

Psyayeayeduck wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:27 am
I just want to remind everyone that just because something is on "sale" doesn't mean you are obligated to buy if you never needed it in the first place. Carry on.
My wife says this doesn’t apply to shoes.

Rick Ferri
by Rick Ferri
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Day 2018
Replies: 73
Views: 7116

Re: Amazon Prime Day 2018

I broke down and bought an Alexa Echo. Now I’ll know what time it is and the temperature outside 🙄. Can’t believe I’m paying to have more Amazon in my life.
by Rick Ferri
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients
Replies: 24
Views: 1533

Re: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients

This seems to be a helpful writeup on the subject: https://www.stockbrokers.com/guides/order-execution Good article. Thanks for sharing. There is information on which brokers take payments and which do not. Using mutual funds instead of ETFs bypasses all of this. You buy and sell at NAV at the end ...
by Rick Ferri
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients
Replies: 24
Views: 1533

Re: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients

I agree it’s not a lot of money for a buy and hold investor, but is is disconcerting nonetheless. This stuff has remained hidden for years. What else don’t we know?

I’m not familiar with a Fidelity’s trading process and can’t comment.
by Rick Ferri
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients
Replies: 24
Views: 1533

Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients

If you’re a ETF investor and want to read a book that will make your blood boil, read Flash Boys by Michael Lewis. It’s all about how HFT (high-frequency trading) is skimming money off your trades. Here is how it works. Brokerage firms sell order flow to hedge funds and proprietary trading desks who...
by Rick Ferri
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?
Replies: 45
Views: 1991

Re: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?

Should you order vanilla ice cream with chocolate topping or chocolate chip? Should you buy a name brand bottle water or store brand? Should you purchase an LG TV or Vizio TV? Should you keep VTI and VXUS or switched to VT? There is no right answer to any of these questions. They are preferences. Re...
by Rick Ferri
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Babbling Bogleheads There’s a lot of truth in that. Here’s the unofficial leader at this point “Bogleheads on Investing” We are the Bogleheads and the show is about investing. Although I could shorten that to “Bogleheads Investing” because I do like how this sounds: Welcome to the “Bogleheads Inves...
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

I hope the power players heed this advice.
Got it! :wink:
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we sell our business?
Replies: 58
Views: 4367

Re: Should we sell our business?

The current value according to the bean counting investment bankers is $900k. This calculation didn't include revenue from our new locations in other parts of the US....I priced in expansion and additional locations when the valuation didn't include those (yet). Unless the bean counters are working...
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we sell our business?
Replies: 58
Views: 4367

Re: Should we sell our business?

I am confused. You said the current value of the business is $900k, but could be worth much more if and when the revenues increase. Then you said you’d offer to sell the business to an employee today for $2 mm, as if the growth has already occurred. Why would you expect an employee to pay you more t...
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

LadyGeek, Here is my thinking on the difference between “Invest Like a Boglehead” and “Investing With the Bogleheads” The first highlights “how” to invest, the second highlights “who” are a guests on the program and their thoughts about investing. If I were to choose between the two as the host, I’m...
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

How about

“Investing with the Bogleheads”

After all, the show is mainly about investing, and the guests are either admitted Bogleheads, closet Bogleheads, or friends of the Bogleheads.

Yes? No?
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Here are names that will not win:

Any name with Bitcoin or cybercurrency in it
Any name longer than 5 words
Any name that doesn’t include Bogleheads
Any name with my name in it
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

The emphasis will follow this site:

Investing - theory and general
Personal Finance (not investing)

No consumer issues unless they happen to come up in conversation.
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

The shortest, most descriptive title would be:

Boglehead Investing
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

How about something with the word Money in it?

Money Talk with the Bogleheads
Bogleheads Talk Money
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Adjusted SPIVA Scorecard
Replies: 1
Views: 234

Re: Risk Adjusted SPIVA Scorecard

Until the most recent report, S&P did not adjust active fund returns for any type of risk measurement in their bi-annual SPIVA Scorecard and active funds were having a hard enough time keeping up. The numbers are even worse with the introduction of a Sharpe Ratio. S&P is working on a more advanced v...
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

This series puts the word “invest” first for the benefit of search engine:

Invest With the Bogleheads
Invest Like a Boglehead
Invest Bogleheads Style

Another idea:

Meet the Bogleheads
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Can I get some comments on these simple ideas:

- The Bogleheads Show

- The Bogleheads Podcast

- Boglehead Talk
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Caligal wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:06 pm
Boglehead Blasts
Sounds like a party!
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Several people like

“Talking Bogleheads” with the byline “Investment Advice Inspired by John Bogle”

Keep the ideas flowing.
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

“Talking Bogleheads”

has a nice ring to it.
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Maybe

Boglehead Radio

Or

Boglehead Investing Show
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

I don't have suggestions for a title. interviewing a number of people from the world of finance and investing would be great. But I would love to hear a good amount of Rick's thoughts on investing, without the need to accommodate someone else in the podcast. We all get a lot out of Rick's posts, an...
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Let’s shoot for brevity.

Titles such as “The Bogleheads Podcast for Better Investment Returns” are too long.

Three words or less would be ideal.
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

What do you think about calling the podcast “Bogle’s Folly” Comments? Now Rick, the rules were the name must include the word "Bogleheads" in it. Seeing you're the host, I guess we could make an exception. Right Mel? :wink: Bogleheads' Folly :beer Looking forward to this podcast. We’ve all been had...
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

The best Podcast name is the ones people remember. Often something with a bite, an edge.

We’re also looking across demographics to expand our reach.
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10231

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

What do you think about calling the podcast “Bogle’s Folly”

Comments?
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice: Preparing for military retirement
Replies: 10
Views: 1189

Re: Career Advice: Preparing for military retirement

You need professional advice. Seek out the very best military career transition experts you can find and ask them for help. Find out exactly what recruiters are looking for. Pay whatever fee for this advice is necessary.

Rick Ferri
USMC retired
by Rick Ferri
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8773

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

With the exception of a US zero-coupon Treasury return, which we know, every forecast has a probably distribution around the expected return, and some distributions are wider than others.
by Rick Ferri
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18013

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

S&P forecast earnings growth out to 2020+ are already priced into stocks. That’s why the S&P 500 is trading at a 25+ current earnings multiple. The probability of a lower long-term stock return increases as more people believe a robust scenerio for earnings growth in the short-term and push prices h...
by Rick Ferri
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?
Replies: 31
Views: 2229

Re: Should I move all my investments to Vanguard?

I have consolidated all of my accounts at Vanguard. Although their technology is arguably not the best, the simplicity and convenience of having one custodian outweighs the disadvantages. The security question of having on one custodian (Vanguard or Schwab or Fidelity) is not a concern and should no...
by Rick Ferri
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12040

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

The New York Fed doesn’t believe the equity risk premium is a near-constant (narrow band around 3%) that can be applied to a treasury yield. The paper you cited is looking at a "one-year-ahead ERP" and I am talking about a 10-30 year ERP. Slight difference. When the Fed pushes rates low, it adds si...
by Rick Ferri
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12040

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

The EXPECTATION of an equity risk premium is known and measurable. There is an expected PREMIUM because there is RISK in the number. If the actual future return of equities was known like it is for zero-coupon bonds, then there would be no expectation of a premium.
by Rick Ferri
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12040

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

A statement constantly made on this forum is that future returns cannot be known in advance. That is false. We know with certainty what a US zero-coupon STRIP will return out to 30 years. That’s the starting place for predicting returns on all other asset classes. Risk premiums can be tracked back h...
by Rick Ferri
Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12040

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

I can say with 100% certainty that if you invest in U.S. zero-coupon STRIPS and hold until maturity you will earn the following returns:

WSJ US zero-coupon STRIPS as of 3 PM on Friday July 6, 2018.
by Rick Ferri
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8773

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

Using broad market ultra-low cost index funds, I would use the following nominal expected 30 year returns for planning: 2.0% inflation 2.5% cash and cash-like 4.0% intermediate-term bonds 7.0% global equities 5.5% balanced 60/40 with some cash Rick Ferri To clarify, intermediate-term bonds includes...
by Rick Ferri
Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8773

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

Using broad market ultra-low cost index funds, I would use the following nominal expected 30 year returns for planning: 2.0% inflation 2.5% cash and cash-like 4.0% intermediate-term bonds 7.0% global equities 5.5% balanced 60/40 with some cash Rick Ferri Just making sure.....global equities include...
by Rick Ferri
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8773

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

Using broad market ultra-low cost index funds, I would use the following nominal expected 30 year returns for planning:

2.0% inflation
2.5% cash and cash-like
4.0% intermediate-term bonds
7.0% global equities
5.5% balanced 60/40 with some cash

Rick Ferri
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18013

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I agree with Cliff Asness. Eventually valuations matter, and will add, eventually interest rates matter, eventually inflation matters, eventually tax policy matters, and eventually GDP growth matters. All economics matter to the level of stock prices, eventually. But as pointed out by the "Philosop...
by Rick Ferri
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18013

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I agree with Cliff Asness. Eventually valuations matter, and will add, eventually interest rates matter, eventually inflation matters, eventually tax policy matters, and eventually GDP growth matters.

All economics matter to the level of stock prices, eventually.
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to invest in bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 4773

Re: Is it ok to invest in bonds?

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:34 pm
tennisplyr wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:28 am
...
I would be interested in which would likely provide a better return over time.
As I wrote in my first response that is precisely the question we cannot answer. It's unknown and unknowable.

PJW
Ahh! You want the high return of the riskier asset without the risk. Got it!
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to invest in bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 4773

Re: Is it ok to invest in bonds?

Here is a simple way to think about investment grade bond funds. There are three elements: 1) Duration 2) Yield-to-maturity (YTM) 3) Fees Let’s take the first two, duration and YTM. If you by a bond fund that has a 4% YTM and a duration of 6 years, reinvest all dividends over the 6 years, your total...
by Rick Ferri
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5417

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

I have a question. Suppose you and Client X came to the conclusion that the appropriate stock/bond ratio is 70/30 .. In the midst of the 08-09 crash after the market had crashed 25 percent or so he gets a hold of you and demands to go all bonds or at least 10/90 and despite your counsel he insists ...
by Rick Ferri
Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a high-fee financial advisor really offers as a value proposition
Replies: 17
Views: 1706

Re: What a high-fee financial advisor really offers as a value proposition

My brand will be low-cost, simplicity, and complete transparency. Not much different from the old brand! The major difference will be more simplicity. I’ll be advocating fewer accounts if possible, and certainly fewer funds in those accounts. Lot’s of free model portfolios on Core-4.com (not yet lau...
by Rick Ferri
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a high-fee financial advisor really offers as a value proposition
Replies: 17
Views: 1706

Re: What a high-fee financial advisor really offers as a value proposition

I think your conversation is being repeated more and more as investors become increasingly informed by companies like Vanguard, Betterment and forums like Bogleheads. I keep telling advisers they should stop trying to convince people that they have superior knowledge or access to superior investment...
by Rick Ferri
Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12040

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

Nothing wrong with your plan. A CD yielding 4.2% for 5-years FDIC insured is a good rate.
by Rick Ferri
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12040

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

“cutehumor” wrote:I want to retire by 55 I was born at the wrong time!! :oops:
Every generation has their bear market and bull market. Your time will come.
by Rick Ferri
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12040

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

Tariffs on imports replace the cut in corporate tax rates, but not 1 for 1. So, rising deficit. Nonetheless, in the GDP equation, “investment” after tax cuts increases while “imports” decrease. Both are positive. Also, energy exports increase as investment in pipelines and terminals begin to pay off...