Search found 480 matches

by Elbowman
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mini-rebalance with new contributions?
Replies: 2
Views: 215

Re: Mini-rebalance with new contributions?

I do the mini-rebalance. Probably doesn't make a huge difference.
by Elbowman
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money
Replies: 5
Views: 997

Re: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money

if the gov't found out you were trying to do a backdoor Roth, then you will face heavy penalties. I'm not sure if there were ever heavy penalties, but it was true that in previous years it was legally ambiguous (met the letter of the law, but perhaps not the spirit). However, this year congress off...
by Elbowman
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP
Replies: 21
Views: 1207

Re: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP

I'm most of the way through Devil Take the Hindmost, and at this point I am pretty confident that #1) is false. But that is missing the point. The argument is not that no one can beat the market. The argument is that you (and I) are not going to beat the market. You're not as clever and steel-willed...
by Elbowman
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money
Replies: 5
Views: 997

Re: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money

Have you looked into Backdoor Roth?
by Elbowman
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired Dilemma - dividends vs accumulating
Replies: 10
Views: 1546

Re: Retired Dilemma - dividends vs accumulating

The best plan is probably the simplest one. Cap weighted global stocks and a bond fund. If $300k includes taxes you should easily be able to maintain 2% withdrawal and still have a ton of money for heirs.
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6531

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

It looks like you are comparing nominal (after inflation) stock returns with absolute (before inflation) returns from bonds. Assuming an efficient market, bonds would not offer expected returns higher than stocks. "Real return" is after inflation, "nominal" is before. Jebediah, I agree there is mer...
by Elbowman
Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)
Replies: 45
Views: 2694

Re: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)

I don't have time to read the entire thread (so other people may have mentioned this) but if he is interested in engineering, and your are concerned about job prospects... EE/CS is one obvious choice for a high demand, high pay, reasonably interesting career.
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I thinking about this right? Life Insurance IPS
Replies: 2
Views: 223

Re: Am I thinking about this right? Life Insurance IPS

It's hard to make suggestions with only part of the picture. If we knew the relative size (and asset allocation) of "Other retirement/brokerage accounts (non-taxable and taxable)" that would help. That being said, I'd go with LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, since higher stock %s are beneficial for...
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60/40 vs 100% with Trailing Stop Loss
Replies: 36
Views: 2319

Re: 60/40 vs 100% with Trailing Stop Loss

Fantastic wealth, truely mind-boggling wealth, is there for the taking by anyone who can run a fund which achieves most of the market's return while avoiding most of it's risk over long periods of time. Yet it is so rare to find anyone who does this that those who are successful become legends in th...
by Elbowman
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Workers on Corporate Boards - Principal-Agent Problem
Replies: 17
Views: 1323

Re: Workers on Corporate Boards - Principal-Agent Problem

Why would that fact not be priced in to stocks in countries with dual mandates?
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Backdoor Roth Thread
Replies: 5
Views: 442

Re: Another Backdoor Roth Thread

I believe there is no tax on the amount originally contributed, but the gains are taxed as income.
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8919

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

So the "less alarming" picture is 3-5% nominal? Considering you can get 4% nominal from intermediate corporates, is anyone considering a 15-20% reduction in their stock allocation?
by Elbowman
Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Germany: Index Funds vs ETFs from Vanguard and iShares
Replies: 5
Views: 715

Re: Index Funds vs ETFs from Vanguard and iShares

So first off, the terminology you're looking for is Mutual Fund vs. ETF, both of which track an index.

Usually Vanguard has "Admiral Shares" versions of their mutual funds with expense ratios equal to the corresponding ETF: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/veusx
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Husband's job finally has a 401k offering with unusual funds
Replies: 29
Views: 2215

Re: Husband's job finally has a 401k offering with unusual funds

So, recognizing these funds have pretty high ERs, would you recommend NOT maxing it out? While it is not ideal, from what I've read it needs to be really bad (2%+) before it's no longer worth the tax break. Just prioritize it last when it comes to to your tax advantaged accounts. If you want to dig...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need help selecting funds in new 403B
Replies: 7
Views: 609

Re: I need help selecting funds in new 403B

1. FID 500 INDEX IPR - For domestic stock FID INTL INDEX PR - For international stock VANG TOT BD MKT INST - For bonds 2. Yes, your new options are much lower cost than 0.36% 3. Yes, if you are rolling to the 403b. No reason not to that I can see. You are right that rolling into an IRA would stop yo...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Setting up 300k Ira. ..
Replies: 13
Views: 705

Re: Setting up 300k Ira. ..

So far the suggestions have been.... stocks with dividends Meh. variable annnuity Definitely not. So, other people have said you should take time to educate yourself, and yes, that's true. Also, we really do need the whole picture (this format) to give the best advice. But at the end of the day, th...
by Elbowman
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 67
Views: 10503

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

I loved this one:
There are over 2,000 books picking apart how Warren Buffett built his fortune. But none are called “This Guy Has Been Investing Consistently for Three-Quarters of a Century.”
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2207

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 5:08 pm
Only the OP can answer your question.

His/Her money, His/Her portfolio, His/Her decision.
He/she is asking advice, and there is a lot of evidence that people are actually NOT good at this kind of prediction.
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2207

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 5:01 pm
Only if he can smile when Miss Market is having a bad hair day.
And how does OP know if this is the case for him?
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2207

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

Goodness, we really are quite deep into a bull market, aren't we? For my retirement account I consider my future earnings potential my bond portion. Are your future earnings guaranteed by a government contact? If so, that is a good comparison. If not, then they really aren't similar to investment gr...
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2207

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 4:27 pm
Bottom line, you are doing fine, keep it going, and please don't try to "fix it."
... OP is 30. Am I reading you correctly that you are saying, "if you've been able to handle a 100% stock portfolio in a bull market, don't try and fix it"?
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2207

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

Most experts I've read recommended at least 20% bonds. I decided that I would be demonstrating a little too much hubris to believe, despite never having had a lot invested during a crash, that panicking is something which happens to other people but not me. Or that prolonged un/under-employment duri...
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Recommendation
Replies: 18
Views: 1909

Re: Bond Recommendation

VPALX would be fine.
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2954

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

I think you need to plot those two bond funds on the same chart as TSM and then see if the difference is big enough to care. I did that but the bond funds/ETFs were so overwhelmed by the TSM line that they were basically indistinguishable. :D yes, that was my point. There is value in knowing what's...
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2954

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

I think you need to plot those two bond funds on the same chart as TSM and then see if the difference is big enough to care.
by Elbowman
Tue May 22, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking 401k advice
Replies: 8
Views: 663

Re: Seeking 401k advice

I have been in a 2045 target date fund and paying an expense ratio of 0.74% (which I understand is not bad but I can do better). I can leave it where it is in the target date, change my selections in my old 401k plan, or I can switch to my new employer and pay 0.12% for a different 2045 target fund...
by Elbowman
Wed May 02, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Investing, looking for advice on new portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 829

Re: New to Investing, looking for advice on new portfolio

For the US stock split, what is a more reasonable recommendation? I chose 50/50 because I honestly did not know one was more weighted than the other. Is 80/20 a fair split? Yes, 80/20 is fair. So, for the 75:25 stock:bond, 70:30 US:international portfolio your proposed, you could do: 42% Vanguard I...
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can you "spend more" if you buy SPIA?
Replies: 12
Views: 1310

Re: Why can you "spend more" if you buy SPIA?

Annuities allow you to spend all of your money, in expectation. Otherwise you have to die with some money in the bank to avoid the risk of outliving your money.
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Funding 529 Account
Replies: 14
Views: 1411

Re: Funding 529 Account

My back-of-the-envelope calculation was that I needed to save $15k/year from birth to pay for four years of Stanford/Harvard. I think I was using The NYT college cost calculator. Obviously using averages in your prediction will leave you with way too much or way too little depending on how the marke...
by Elbowman
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does my investment plan look?
Replies: 4
Views: 861

Re: How does my investment plan look?

US tax rate: I don’t usually pay US taxes on my income What are the taxes you will be paying? The reason I ask: REIT: 15% --Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX) --About 33% of this is in my Roth IRA account. For someone in the US I would not recommend any reit in a taxable account. The tax drag is just...
by Elbowman
Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401 k with limited choices-Help selecting lazy portfolio find
Replies: 6
Views: 556

Re: 401 k with limited choices-Help selecting lazy portfolio find

ruralavalon and BL have given good advice. In the 401k you will be fine with just VINIX - VANGUARD INST INDEX and CMCZ2 STATE STREET US BOND INDX. I like international but I would not pay the 0.64% for DODFX. If you want international enough for the added complexity you should follow BL's advice and...
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?
Replies: 36
Views: 2698

Re: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?

If you guys don't think this is the way to go, would you suggest an alternative. I do think if my wife was advised by a financial professional that she saw as qualified she would follow their advice. How about booking one session with a fee only advisor whose advice you agree with? Also, building u...
by Elbowman
Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 991

Re: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?

There is also historical data suggesting untested investors overestimate their ability to stay the course in a crash. Being 100% invested in extremely volatile funds seems like it would make that tendency worse.
by Elbowman
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 33
Views: 3372

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

Don't get me wrong, I don't hold any cryptocurrency, and I am looking forward to the schadenfreude of a serious Bitcoin crash. However, there are cryptocurrency models where the transaction fees are distributed among the token holders rather than the miners. This would make those cryptocurrencies ge...
by Elbowman
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to 401K
Replies: 14
Views: 1193

Re: Alternatives to 401K

It is important to know 1) what your marginal tax rate is, and 2) how bad the PERA funds are. If you are close you retirement you could get the tax break of the 401k, only pay the PERA fees for a few years, and then retire and roll the 401k into better IRA funds.
by Elbowman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2087

Re: Luxury Index Funds

Where do you draw the line about paying more? I thought I was proposing an analysis that could help one make that decision... it would be an interesting analysis to take different behavioral mistakes (selling low, not rebalancing, etc.) and see how much you need to reduce that probability to make 0...
by Elbowman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2087

Re: Luxury Index Funds

Doing the wrong thing is far more expensive than the fees, and a lot of people I don't expect would do the right thing without using these funds. I agree. Too many people, on this forum even, treat the possibility of a future behavioral mistake as some true or false value that they need to guess ah...
by Elbowman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do telecom stocks have a future?
Replies: 64
Views: 4430

Re: Do telecom stocks have a future?

Why are people discussing industry performance and prospects? One of the biggest reasons stock picking is hard is that it doesn't matter how well a company does in absolute terms, only relative to expectations. It doesn't sound like there are tax consequences. Total Stock Market will give you more e...
by Elbowman
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 1029

Re: Bond diversification

As lack_ey has already said, you can possibly do better with CDs, since FDIC insurance offers a bit of a free lunch. Besides that, risk and return cannot be separated. If you reduce your term risk, you will get a lower expected return as well.
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Divorce money - How to invest it?
Replies: 9
Views: 2217

Re: Divorce money - How to invest it?

If all of your retirement money is in tax-advantaged accounts (Trad IRA, Roth IRA, 401k, etc.), Target Retirement funds are great options. They are a diversified mix of stocks and bonds, which is important. The other important factor is cost , which you want to keep low. To this point, Fidelity offe...
by Elbowman
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overextended in Bay Area housing?
Replies: 37
Views: 4686

Re: Overextended in Bay Area housing?

Take home after taxes is 11,700. So 11,700-8,800 is 2,900 left over each month to save and for emergencies. You want to save at least 15-20% of your income, which it seems like you can do. Ideally you'd set up automatic deductions for your savings (do you have 401k/403b options?) and then as long a...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Pay Grad School Loans
Replies: 8
Views: 1319

Re: How to Pay Grad School Loans

Option A: Take full $40k loan (20K each semester), pay for school with 20K, take additional 20K @ 7% interest, invest in 50/50 international and S&P500 index Funds and gamble on making more then 7% return. I thought you were keeping a safety net, not gambling on a higher return. If you do take the ...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about market timing the current market
Replies: 27
Views: 2078

Re: Question about market timing the current market

I am bound to purchase cheaper shares than if I just leave them all in there today at the peak of the market. Well, there's one error at least. How is he "bound" to purchase cheaper shares? It's completely possible that the market will steadily increase for the next decade, and will never again be ...
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low income: using leverage to reach our goals [EU]
Replies: 10
Views: 1361

Re: Low income: using leverage to reach our goals [EU]

coccodrillo wrote:Both my need and willingness to take risk are very high.
Is retiring in 12 years a need or a want? Could you work a few more years and achieve your goals in a much safer fashion?
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1845

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

I sell my tech employer's stock ASAP. In my reading I've found that most experts implore you not to hold stock in your employer. Too much of your finances are already tied their success.
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty
Replies: 9
Views: 1698

Re: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty

Thanks for the replies everyone! There is not actually too much variance in my income. Last year I got married and filed jointly, and it turns out there were no withholdings from my wife's fellowship grants (for grad school), which will not happen this year. What you owe is the safe harbor: lower of...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty
Replies: 9
Views: 1698

Re: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty

Thank you flamesabers!
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty
Replies: 9
Views: 1698

Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty

TLDR; Is the Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty based off your total federal taxes due or the difference between your federal taxes due and your withholdings? Hi folks, I wanted to check my understanding of the Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty, and would appreciate your help. Last year I had a big...
by Elbowman
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comments on Planned Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 983

Re: Comments on Planned Portfolio

3) 50% Total Stock Market (VTSAX) and 50% Long Term Treasury (VUSTX) The entire time period you tested over has been a bull market for bonds, which will make Long Term Treasuries look very good. To get a more complete picture you would need to start in the 1960's and check how this portfolio perfor...
by Elbowman
Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Move Away from 3-Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 36
Views: 5389

Re: Time to Move Away from 3-Fund Portfolio?

How about all of taxable in Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund , and all tax-advantaged in an appropriate Target Retirement Fund. You could probably get away with no portfolio changes, ever.