Search found 488 matches

by Elbowman
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pacifica Hybrid? Alternative? Now or Later?
Replies: 6
Views: 605

Re: Pacifica Hybrid? Alternative? Now or Later?

Thanks everyone for your feedback! I will look at what options appear closer to the deadline (pre-owned or new plug-in options) and read more carefully about the Clean Vehicle Rebate.
by Elbowman
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pacifica Hybrid? Alternative? Now or Later?
Replies: 6
Views: 605

Pacifica Hybrid? Alternative? Now or Later?

Hey Bogleheads, I'd like to draw upon your nuanced understanding of cars and car purchasing. I used to think that I should always purchase cars that are a couple years old to avoid the new car premium, but after reading a few threads I found (at least some of you believe) that is not a universal tru...
by Elbowman
Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $40,000 in debt, bankruptcy seems to be the best option right now
Replies: 258
Views: 20248

Re: $40,000 in debt, bankruptcy seems to be the best option right now

I know this is a bigger change than you are looking for, but the elephant in the room is your housing cost relative to income. Right now you are at 2000/4300 = 46.5% of income towards housing. Why 30%? That’s the percentage that the government has used since 1981 to decide who qualified for public h...
by Elbowman
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this budget lean enough?
Replies: 31
Views: 2074

Re: Is this budget lean enough?

Hard to say without income to compare to. If you make 3x what you are spending then you are probably over saving. If you make 80% of what you are spending then you are overspending...
by Elbowman
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For a long term buy and hold portfolio, should I just go with BND for my bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 601

Re: For a long term buy and hold portfolio, should I just go with BND for my bonds?

Lots of previous posts on this, use the search function or just check out https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=134743 to start. The short answers is yes, you could just go with BND if 1) all your bonds are in tax advantaged accounts, and 2) your bond allocation isn't too high (say < 50%)...
by Elbowman
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks in Traditional IRA...
Replies: 2
Views: 438

Re: Individual stocks in Traditional IRA...

I believe all taxes will be the same whether it is individual stocks or mutual funds. if one is smart enough If you're smart enough you can do just about anything. In this case, people who beat the market by enough to discount luck are so rare they become famous. You need to have an honest conversat...
by Elbowman
Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: high tax bracket - muni bonds in taxable
Replies: 8
Views: 1236

Re: high tax bracket - muni bonds in taxable

White Coat Investor did an article on this: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/asset ... n-taxable/ . It seems fine to do.
by Elbowman
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17666

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

Experts/experienced investors: "Please, please believe us when we say that the psychological effect of significant losses in an environment of panic affects many people, and consequently their behavior, in ways they to not anticipate." Young, 100% stockers: "Haha, not me! Broad psychological trends ...
by Elbowman
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mini-rebalance with new contributions?
Replies: 2
Views: 248

Re: Mini-rebalance with new contributions?

I do the mini-rebalance. Probably doesn't make a huge difference.
by Elbowman
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money
Replies: 5
Views: 1062

Re: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money

if the gov't found out you were trying to do a backdoor Roth, then you will face heavy penalties. I'm not sure if there were ever heavy penalties, but it was true that in previous years it was legally ambiguous (met the letter of the law, but perhaps not the spirit). However, this year congress off...
by Elbowman
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP
Replies: 21
Views: 1317

Re: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP

I'm most of the way through Devil Take the Hindmost, and at this point I am pretty confident that #1) is false. But that is missing the point. The argument is not that no one can beat the market. The argument is that you (and I) are not going to beat the market. You're not as clever and steel-willed...
by Elbowman
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money
Replies: 5
Views: 1062

Re: Tax Efficient Way to Invest Money

Have you looked into Backdoor Roth?
by Elbowman
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired Dilemma - dividends vs accumulating
Replies: 10
Views: 1605

Re: Retired Dilemma - dividends vs accumulating

The best plan is probably the simplest one. Cap weighted global stocks and a bond fund. If $300k includes taxes you should easily be able to maintain 2% withdrawal and still have a ton of money for heirs.
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6721

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

It looks like you are comparing nominal (after inflation) stock returns with absolute (before inflation) returns from bonds. Assuming an efficient market, bonds would not offer expected returns higher than stocks. "Real return" is after inflation, "nominal" is before. Jebediah, I agree there is mer...
by Elbowman
Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)
Replies: 45
Views: 2757

Re: Military career/college options (engineering - nukes?)

I don't have time to read the entire thread (so other people may have mentioned this) but if he is interested in engineering, and your are concerned about job prospects... EE/CS is one obvious choice for a high demand, high pay, reasonably interesting career.
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I thinking about this right? Life Insurance IPS
Replies: 2
Views: 229

Re: Am I thinking about this right? Life Insurance IPS

It's hard to make suggestions with only part of the picture. If we knew the relative size (and asset allocation) of "Other retirement/brokerage accounts (non-taxable and taxable)" that would help. That being said, I'd go with LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, since higher stock %s are beneficial for...
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60/40 vs 100% with Trailing Stop Loss
Replies: 36
Views: 2383

Re: 60/40 vs 100% with Trailing Stop Loss

Fantastic wealth, truely mind-boggling wealth, is there for the taking by anyone who can run a fund which achieves most of the market's return while avoiding most of it's risk over long periods of time. Yet it is so rare to find anyone who does this that those who are successful become legends in th...
by Elbowman
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Workers on Corporate Boards - Principal-Agent Problem
Replies: 17
Views: 1353

Re: Workers on Corporate Boards - Principal-Agent Problem

Why would that fact not be priced in to stocks in countries with dual mandates?
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Backdoor Roth Thread
Replies: 5
Views: 461

Re: Another Backdoor Roth Thread

I believe there is no tax on the amount originally contributed, but the gains are taxed as income.
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 9147

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

So the "less alarming" picture is 3-5% nominal? Considering you can get 4% nominal from intermediate corporates, is anyone considering a 15-20% reduction in their stock allocation?
by Elbowman
Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Germany: Index Funds vs ETFs from Vanguard and iShares
Replies: 5
Views: 770

Re: Index Funds vs ETFs from Vanguard and iShares

So first off, the terminology you're looking for is Mutual Fund vs. ETF, both of which track an index.

Usually Vanguard has "Admiral Shares" versions of their mutual funds with expense ratios equal to the corresponding ETF: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/veusx
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Husband's job finally has a 401k offering with unusual funds
Replies: 29
Views: 2269

Re: Husband's job finally has a 401k offering with unusual funds

So, recognizing these funds have pretty high ERs, would you recommend NOT maxing it out? While it is not ideal, from what I've read it needs to be really bad (2%+) before it's no longer worth the tax break. Just prioritize it last when it comes to to your tax advantaged accounts. If you want to dig...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need help selecting funds in new 403B
Replies: 7
Views: 641

Re: I need help selecting funds in new 403B

1. FID 500 INDEX IPR - For domestic stock FID INTL INDEX PR - For international stock VANG TOT BD MKT INST - For bonds 2. Yes, your new options are much lower cost than 0.36% 3. Yes, if you are rolling to the 403b. No reason not to that I can see. You are right that rolling into an IRA would stop yo...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Setting up 300k Ira. ..
Replies: 13
Views: 723

Re: Setting up 300k Ira. ..

So far the suggestions have been.... stocks with dividends Meh. variable annnuity Definitely not. So, other people have said you should take time to educate yourself, and yes, that's true. Also, we really do need the whole picture (this format) to give the best advice. But at the end of the day, th...
by Elbowman
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 67
Views: 10768

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

I loved this one:
There are over 2,000 books picking apart how Warren Buffett built his fortune. But none are called “This Guy Has Been Investing Consistently for Three-Quarters of a Century.”
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2394

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 5:08 pm
Only the OP can answer your question.

His/Her money, His/Her portfolio, His/Her decision.
He/she is asking advice, and there is a lot of evidence that people are actually NOT good at this kind of prediction.
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2394

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 5:01 pm
Only if he can smile when Miss Market is having a bad hair day.
And how does OP know if this is the case for him?
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2394

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

Goodness, we really are quite deep into a bull market, aren't we? For my retirement account I consider my future earnings potential my bond portion. Are your future earnings guaranteed by a government contact? If so, that is a good comparison. If not, then they really aren't similar to investment gr...
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2394

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 4:27 pm
Bottom line, you are doing fine, keep it going, and please don't try to "fix it."
... OP is 30. Am I reading you correctly that you are saying, "if you've been able to handle a 100% stock portfolio in a bull market, don't try and fix it"?
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2394

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

Most experts I've read recommended at least 20% bonds. I decided that I would be demonstrating a little too much hubris to believe, despite never having had a lot invested during a crash, that panicking is something which happens to other people but not me. Or that prolonged un/under-employment duri...
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Recommendation
Replies: 18
Views: 1963

Re: Bond Recommendation

VPALX would be fine.
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 3060

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

I think you need to plot those two bond funds on the same chart as TSM and then see if the difference is big enough to care. I did that but the bond funds/ETFs were so overwhelmed by the TSM line that they were basically indistinguishable. :D yes, that was my point. There is value in knowing what's...
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 3060

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

I think you need to plot those two bond funds on the same chart as TSM and then see if the difference is big enough to care.
by Elbowman
Tue May 22, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking 401k advice
Replies: 8
Views: 696

Re: Seeking 401k advice

I have been in a 2045 target date fund and paying an expense ratio of 0.74% (which I understand is not bad but I can do better). I can leave it where it is in the target date, change my selections in my old 401k plan, or I can switch to my new employer and pay 0.12% for a different 2045 target fund...
by Elbowman
Wed May 02, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Investing, looking for advice on new portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 864

Re: New to Investing, looking for advice on new portfolio

For the US stock split, what is a more reasonable recommendation? I chose 50/50 because I honestly did not know one was more weighted than the other. Is 80/20 a fair split? Yes, 80/20 is fair. So, for the 75:25 stock:bond, 70:30 US:international portfolio your proposed, you could do: 42% Vanguard I...
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can you "spend more" if you buy SPIA?
Replies: 12
Views: 1354

Re: Why can you "spend more" if you buy SPIA?

Annuities allow you to spend all of your money, in expectation. Otherwise you have to die with some money in the bank to avoid the risk of outliving your money.
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Funding 529 Account
Replies: 14
Views: 1418

Re: Funding 529 Account

My back-of-the-envelope calculation was that I needed to save $15k/year from birth to pay for four years of Stanford/Harvard. I think I was using The NYT college cost calculator. Obviously using averages in your prediction will leave you with way too much or way too little depending on how the marke...
by Elbowman
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does my investment plan look?
Replies: 4
Views: 889

Re: How does my investment plan look?

US tax rate: I don’t usually pay US taxes on my income What are the taxes you will be paying? The reason I ask: REIT: 15% --Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX) --About 33% of this is in my Roth IRA account. For someone in the US I would not recommend any reit in a taxable account. The tax drag is just...
by Elbowman
Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401 k with limited choices-Help selecting lazy portfolio find
Replies: 6
Views: 583

Re: 401 k with limited choices-Help selecting lazy portfolio find

ruralavalon and BL have given good advice. In the 401k you will be fine with just VINIX - VANGUARD INST INDEX and CMCZ2 STATE STREET US BOND INDX. I like international but I would not pay the 0.64% for DODFX. If you want international enough for the added complexity you should follow BL's advice and...
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?
Replies: 36
Views: 2829

Re: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?

If you guys don't think this is the way to go, would you suggest an alternative. I do think if my wife was advised by a financial professional that she saw as qualified she would follow their advice. How about booking one session with a fee only advisor whose advice you agree with? Also, building u...
by Elbowman
Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1025

Re: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?

There is also historical data suggesting untested investors overestimate their ability to stay the course in a crash. Being 100% invested in extremely volatile funds seems like it would make that tendency worse.
by Elbowman
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 33
Views: 3558

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

Don't get me wrong, I don't hold any cryptocurrency, and I am looking forward to the schadenfreude of a serious Bitcoin crash. However, there are cryptocurrency models where the transaction fees are distributed among the token holders rather than the miners. This would make those cryptocurrencies ge...
by Elbowman
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to 401K
Replies: 14
Views: 1232

Re: Alternatives to 401K

It is important to know 1) what your marginal tax rate is, and 2) how bad the PERA funds are. If you are close you retirement you could get the tax break of the 401k, only pay the PERA fees for a few years, and then retire and roll the 401k into better IRA funds.
by Elbowman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2133

Re: Luxury Index Funds

Where do you draw the line about paying more? I thought I was proposing an analysis that could help one make that decision... it would be an interesting analysis to take different behavioral mistakes (selling low, not rebalancing, etc.) and see how much you need to reduce that probability to make 0...
by Elbowman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2133

Re: Luxury Index Funds

Doing the wrong thing is far more expensive than the fees, and a lot of people I don't expect would do the right thing without using these funds. I agree. Too many people, on this forum even, treat the possibility of a future behavioral mistake as some true or false value that they need to guess ah...
by Elbowman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do telecom stocks have a future?
Replies: 64
Views: 4506

Re: Do telecom stocks have a future?

Why are people discussing industry performance and prospects? One of the biggest reasons stock picking is hard is that it doesn't matter how well a company does in absolute terms, only relative to expectations. It doesn't sound like there are tax consequences. Total Stock Market will give you more e...
by Elbowman
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 1057

Re: Bond diversification

As lack_ey has already said, you can possibly do better with CDs, since FDIC insurance offers a bit of a free lunch. Besides that, risk and return cannot be separated. If you reduce your term risk, you will get a lower expected return as well.
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Divorce money - How to invest it?
Replies: 9
Views: 2252

Re: Divorce money - How to invest it?

If all of your retirement money is in tax-advantaged accounts (Trad IRA, Roth IRA, 401k, etc.), Target Retirement funds are great options. They are a diversified mix of stocks and bonds, which is important. The other important factor is cost , which you want to keep low. To this point, Fidelity offe...
by Elbowman
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overextended in Bay Area housing?
Replies: 37
Views: 4745

Re: Overextended in Bay Area housing?

Take home after taxes is 11,700. So 11,700-8,800 is 2,900 left over each month to save and for emergencies. You want to save at least 15-20% of your income, which it seems like you can do. Ideally you'd set up automatic deductions for your savings (do you have 401k/403b options?) and then as long a...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Pay Grad School Loans
Replies: 8
Views: 1351

Re: How to Pay Grad School Loans

Option A: Take full $40k loan (20K each semester), pay for school with 20K, take additional 20K @ 7% interest, invest in 50/50 international and S&P500 index Funds and gamble on making more then 7% return. I thought you were keeping a safety net, not gambling on a higher return. If you do take the ...