Search found 465 matches

by Elbowman
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Setting up 300k Ira. ..
Replies: 13
Views: 577

Re: Setting up 300k Ira. ..

So far the suggestions have been.... stocks with dividends Meh. variable annnuity Definitely not. So, other people have said you should take time to educate yourself, and yes, that's true. Also, we really do need the whole picture (this format) to give the best advice. But at the end of the day, th...
by Elbowman
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 66
Views: 8894

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

I loved this one:
There are over 2,000 books picking apart how Warren Buffett built his fortune. But none are called “This Guy Has Been Investing Consistently for Three-Quarters of a Century.”
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 1901

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 5:08 pm
Only the OP can answer your question.

His/Her money, His/Her portfolio, His/Her decision.
He/she is asking advice, and there is a lot of evidence that people are actually NOT good at this kind of prediction.
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 1901

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 5:01 pm
Only if he can smile when Miss Market is having a bad hair day.
And how does OP know if this is the case for him?
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 1901

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

Goodness, we really are quite deep into a bull market, aren't we? For my retirement account I consider my future earnings potential my bond portion. Are your future earnings guaranteed by a government contact? If so, that is a good comparison. If not, then they really aren't similar to investment gr...
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 1901

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

cfs wrote:
Mon May 28, 2018 4:27 pm
Bottom line, you are doing fine, keep it going, and please don't try to "fix it."
... OP is 30. Am I reading you correctly that you are saying, "if you've been able to handle a 100% stock portfolio in a bull market, don't try and fix it"?
by Elbowman
Mon May 28, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 1901

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

Most experts I've read recommended at least 20% bonds. I decided that I would be demonstrating a little too much hubris to believe, despite never having had a lot invested during a crash, that panicking is something which happens to other people but not me. Or that prolonged un/under-employment duri...
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Recommendation
Replies: 14
Views: 1404

Re: Bond Recommendation

VPALX would be fine.
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2737

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

I think you need to plot those two bond funds on the same chart as TSM and then see if the difference is big enough to care. I did that but the bond funds/ETFs were so overwhelmed by the TSM line that they were basically indistinguishable. :D yes, that was my point. There is value in knowing what's...
by Elbowman
Sat May 26, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2737

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

I think you need to plot those two bond funds on the same chart as TSM and then see if the difference is big enough to care.
by Elbowman
Tue May 22, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking 401k advice
Replies: 8
Views: 602

Re: Seeking 401k advice

I have been in a 2045 target date fund and paying an expense ratio of 0.74% (which I understand is not bad but I can do better). I can leave it where it is in the target date, change my selections in my old 401k plan, or I can switch to my new employer and pay 0.12% for a different 2045 target fund...
by Elbowman
Wed May 02, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Investing, looking for advice on new portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 565

Re: New to Investing, looking for advice on new portfolio

For the US stock split, what is a more reasonable recommendation? I chose 50/50 because I honestly did not know one was more weighted than the other. Is 80/20 a fair split? Yes, 80/20 is fair. So, for the 75:25 stock:bond, 70:30 US:international portfolio your proposed, you could do: 42% Vanguard I...
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can you "spend more" if you buy SPIA?
Replies: 12
Views: 1194

Re: Why can you "spend more" if you buy SPIA?

Annuities allow you to spend all of your money, in expectation. Otherwise you have to die with some money in the bank to avoid the risk of outliving your money.
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Funding 529 Account
Replies: 14
Views: 1120

Re: Funding 529 Account

My back-of-the-envelope calculation was that I needed to save $15k/year from birth to pay for four years of Stanford/Harvard. I think I was using The NYT college cost calculator. Obviously using averages in your prediction will leave you with way too much or way too little depending on how the marke...
by Elbowman
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does my investment plan look?
Replies: 4
Views: 792

Re: How does my investment plan look?

US tax rate: I don’t usually pay US taxes on my income What are the taxes you will be paying? The reason I ask: REIT: 15% --Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSLX) --About 33% of this is in my Roth IRA account. For someone in the US I would not recommend any reit in a taxable account. The tax drag is just...
by Elbowman
Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401 k with limited choices-Help selecting lazy portfolio find
Replies: 6
Views: 471

Re: 401 k with limited choices-Help selecting lazy portfolio find

ruralavalon and BL have given good advice. In the 401k you will be fine with just VINIX - VANGUARD INST INDEX and CMCZ2 STATE STREET US BOND INDX. I like international but I would not pay the 0.64% for DODFX. If you want international enough for the added complexity you should follow BL's advice and...
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?
Replies: 36
Views: 2507

Re: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?

If you guys don't think this is the way to go, would you suggest an alternative. I do think if my wife was advised by a financial professional that she saw as qualified she would follow their advice. How about booking one session with a fee only advisor whose advice you agree with? Also, building u...
by Elbowman
Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 876

Re: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?

There is also historical data suggesting untested investors overestimate their ability to stay the course in a crash. Being 100% invested in extremely volatile funds seems like it would make that tendency worse.
by Elbowman
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 33
Views: 3025

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

Don't get me wrong, I don't hold any cryptocurrency, and I am looking forward to the schadenfreude of a serious Bitcoin crash. However, there are cryptocurrency models where the transaction fees are distributed among the token holders rather than the miners. This would make those cryptocurrencies ge...
by Elbowman
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to 401K
Replies: 14
Views: 1089

Re: Alternatives to 401K

It is important to know 1) what your marginal tax rate is, and 2) how bad the PERA funds are. If you are close you retirement you could get the tax break of the 401k, only pay the PERA fees for a few years, and then retire and roll the 401k into better IRA funds.
by Elbowman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1982

Re: Luxury Index Funds

Where do you draw the line about paying more? I thought I was proposing an analysis that could help one make that decision... it would be an interesting analysis to take different behavioral mistakes (selling low, not rebalancing, etc.) and see how much you need to reduce that probability to make 0...
by Elbowman
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luxury Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1982

Re: Luxury Index Funds

Doing the wrong thing is far more expensive than the fees, and a lot of people I don't expect would do the right thing without using these funds. I agree. Too many people, on this forum even, treat the possibility of a future behavioral mistake as some true or false value that they need to guess ah...
by Elbowman
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do telecom stocks have a future?
Replies: 64
Views: 4088

Re: Do telecom stocks have a future?

Why are people discussing industry performance and prospects? One of the biggest reasons stock picking is hard is that it doesn't matter how well a company does in absolute terms, only relative to expectations. It doesn't sound like there are tax consequences. Total Stock Market will give you more e...
by Elbowman
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 971

Re: Bond diversification

As lack_ey has already said, you can possibly do better with CDs, since FDIC insurance offers a bit of a free lunch. Besides that, risk and return cannot be separated. If you reduce your term risk, you will get a lower expected return as well.
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Divorce money - How to invest it?
Replies: 9
Views: 2150

Re: Divorce money - How to invest it?

If all of your retirement money is in tax-advantaged accounts (Trad IRA, Roth IRA, 401k, etc.), Target Retirement funds are great options. They are a diversified mix of stocks and bonds, which is important. The other important factor is cost , which you want to keep low. To this point, Fidelity offe...
by Elbowman
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overextended in Bay Area housing?
Replies: 37
Views: 4504

Re: Overextended in Bay Area housing?

Take home after taxes is 11,700. So 11,700-8,800 is 2,900 left over each month to save and for emergencies. You want to save at least 15-20% of your income, which it seems like you can do. Ideally you'd set up automatic deductions for your savings (do you have 401k/403b options?) and then as long a...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Pay Grad School Loans
Replies: 8
Views: 1181

Re: How to Pay Grad School Loans

Option A: Take full $40k loan (20K each semester), pay for school with 20K, take additional 20K @ 7% interest, invest in 50/50 international and S&P500 index Funds and gamble on making more then 7% return. I thought you were keeping a safety net, not gambling on a higher return. If you do take the ...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about market timing the current market
Replies: 27
Views: 1971

Re: Question about market timing the current market

I am bound to purchase cheaper shares than if I just leave them all in there today at the peak of the market. Well, there's one error at least. How is he "bound" to purchase cheaper shares? It's completely possible that the market will steadily increase for the next decade, and will never again be ...
by Elbowman
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low income: using leverage to reach our goals [EU]
Replies: 10
Views: 1317

Re: Low income: using leverage to reach our goals [EU]

coccodrillo wrote:Both my need and willingness to take risk are very high.
Is retiring in 12 years a need or a want? Could you work a few more years and achieve your goals in a much safer fashion?
by Elbowman
Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1686

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

I sell my tech employer's stock ASAP. In my reading I've found that most experts implore you not to hold stock in your employer. Too much of your finances are already tied their success.
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty
Replies: 9
Views: 1583

Re: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty

Thanks for the replies everyone! There is not actually too much variance in my income. Last year I got married and filed jointly, and it turns out there were no withholdings from my wife's fellowship grants (for grad school), which will not happen this year. What you owe is the safe harbor: lower of...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty
Replies: 9
Views: 1583

Re: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty

Thank you flamesabers!
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty
Replies: 9
Views: 1583

Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty

TLDR; Is the Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty based off your total federal taxes due or the difference between your federal taxes due and your withholdings? Hi folks, I wanted to check my understanding of the Estimated Tax Underpayment Penalty, and would appreciate your help. Last year I had a big...
by Elbowman
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comments on Planned Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 900

Re: Comments on Planned Portfolio

3) 50% Total Stock Market (VTSAX) and 50% Long Term Treasury (VUSTX) The entire time period you tested over has been a bull market for bonds, which will make Long Term Treasuries look very good. To get a more complete picture you would need to start in the 1960's and check how this portfolio perfor...
by Elbowman
Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Move Away from 3-Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 36
Views: 5255

Re: Time to Move Away from 3-Fund Portfolio?

How about all of taxable in Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund , and all tax-advantaged in an appropriate Target Retirement Fund. You could probably get away with no portfolio changes, ever.
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to This--How does my Long-Term Plan/Portfolio Look?
Replies: 4
Views: 840

Re: New to This--How does my Long-Term Plan/Portfolio Look?

Regarding the 403(b), it is possible that you could do much better than the FID Freedom 2050. Are there any really low expense ratio options available (substantially less than the 0.77% you are paying for FFFHX)? Often you will find a handful of low cost index funds in plans like that. Sometimes it ...
by Elbowman
Tue May 16, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting vs simplicity -- and where to tilt?
Replies: 12
Views: 1851

Re: Tilting vs simplicity -- and where to tilt?

Rick Ferri seems to believe that you are right choosing real estate next. Perhaps I've spent too much time reading bogleheads debates, but personally I go with small cap value (and a low cost option, like VBR).
by Elbowman
Mon May 15, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?
Replies: 84
Views: 9188

Re: Anyone else agree with my logic on silicon valley housing?

Yes, I did not point this out but that is a key element of my plan, is to transfer my job to one of my companies other offices. Since I'll retain all of my unvested stock in doing so, I'll be pulling in $100k to $150k a year in stock without living in SV. That should put me way ahead. Are you at a ...
by Elbowman
Mon May 15, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New-ish Investor--Advice on strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 2778

Re: New-ish Investor--Advice on strategy

The Three Fund Portfolio page has a section which shows the best Fidelity funds to use for your portfolio. These funds:

32% T. Rowe Price Value (TRVLX) (.82% expense ratio)
26% Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) (.82% expense ratio)

are way too expensive.
by Elbowman
Fri May 12, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 found lazy portfolio - where to put bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 774

Re: 3 found lazy portfolio - where to put bonds

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares is a common choice for taxable bonds.

*EDIT* It looks like you are at Fidelity. Presumably they have something similar.
by Elbowman
Fri May 12, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 3907

Re: Rob Arnott

So I can't verify the numbers he is citing (I think it is PE10, 29 for US, 14-15 for developed international, 11-12 for emerging markets), but if they are accurate then I don't think it is unreasonable that by 2047 emerging markets will have outperformed the US. That doesn't mean it is a free lunch ...
by Elbowman
Mon May 01, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the purpose of bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1548

Re: What is the purpose of bonds?

For example, if you go to Vanguards "asset mix" it will say that a portfolio of 100% bonds has averaged a 5.4% return. How? Bonds will not be returning 5.4% any time soon. In the past the dividends were higher, which is how they returned 5.4% (plus the value of old bonds go up if the return of new ...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation help
Replies: 5
Views: 725

Re: Allocation help

-FYI bonds are less tax efficient in the Roth IRA. Might wanna swap these out for equities and switch into more bonds in your SIMPLE. Why is this the case? I have a feeling you are referring to the fact that equities will likely grow faster than bonds, so you will play less taxes with equities in t...
by Elbowman
Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation help
Replies: 5
Views: 725

Re: Allocation help

Looks pretty good! You can buy ETF versions of the funds if you don't have enough to get admiral shares.
by Elbowman
Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Offsetting Bad 403(b) Options with Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 996

Re: Help Offsetting Bad 403(b) Options with Index Funds

Wow, that's a tough one. The 0.59% difference between VMGIX and the target retirement is a big deal, but you would have to endure a lot of tracking error. Still, at 154 different companies VMGIX is reasonably diverse, I wouldn't be surprised if that was the right long term move. Duckie, would your o...
by Elbowman
Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing information to ask Portfolio questions
Replies: 4
Views: 347

Re: Preparing information to ask Portfolio questions

At the end of the day people are looking for what low cost (ER) options you have available. So if you have a low cost US stock fund available, no one will pay much attention to the high cost US stock funds. But figuring out the lowest cost option for each category might be more work than copy/pastin...
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US Small Value - Did i just luck out big time?!
Replies: 18
Views: 1400

Re: US Small Value - Did i just luck out big time?!

ZenInvestor wrote:Its a small cap value fund with an ER of 0.51%.
There are people here who would pay 0.51% for SV, but I'm not one of them.
by Elbowman
Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return
Replies: 16
Views: 2602

Re: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return

I saw an interview with John Bogle today, where he said he wasn't super bullish (my words) on stock returns since GDP is only 2%. This made me realize the relationship between stock returns and GDP was not at clear in my mind as I wanted it to be, so I dug up this old thread. Say we are ignoring the...
by Elbowman
Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gotchas for Backdoor Roth AFTER Transfer to Vanguard?
Replies: 2
Views: 528

Gotchas for Backdoor Roth AFTER Transfer to Vanguard?

Hi Bogleheads, I have two related questions: 1) I got married this year, and I'd like to transfer my wife's investments accounts from Capital One to Vanguard. I had planned on doing this after I did a backdoor conversion for this tax year (at Capital One), because it seemed like there would be fewer...
by Elbowman
Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MetLife Promise Whole Life Select 10
Replies: 16
Views: 1868

Re: MetLife Promise Whole Life Select 10

A bit more information: we've made a very large home purchase in NY (way too much) and my monthly mortgage payment will be around $8k/month (purchasing a $2,500,000 apartment, borrowing $1,800,000). Investing in 401K for both my wife and myself, cost of nanny, paying school - which i did not not fo...