Search found 1387 matches

by Tycoon
Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 177
Views: 10026

Re: Market timers thread

CraigTester wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:02 pm
However, for whatever reason, despite all the glaring evidence to the contrary, the self appointed guardians of this forum, immediately slap down anyone daring to point out that the earth is round.
From my point of view you are arguing that the earth is flat.
by Tycoon
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?
Replies: 178
Views: 13650

Re: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?

Tycoon wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:23 am
I'm scared to look.
I looked. Over $275 per week.

We spend more on Kiwifruit than some of you spend on food all month. I knew I shouldn't have looked.
by Tycoon
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 177
Views: 10026

Re: Market timers thread

Raising children taught me that sometimes it is best to just sit back and watch. The mistakes they made on their own taught them faster than the advice I was giving them. When they were young I would measure possible outcomes and if an emergency room wasn't one of them I would watch them learn the h...
by Tycoon
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020
Replies: 69
Views: 3484

Re: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020

My Win 7 will continue to be used after 2020 offline as a media server, photo and video editing and other non internet connected services. It's too stable to move/upgrade and I'm not a fan of Win10. So, I've just gone to Linux Mint Cinnamon in a dual boot mode. Its very much like WIN7 and even with...
by Tycoon
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund Performance Update
Replies: 2
Views: 408

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund Performance Update

Most figure this out eventually. Typically after they lose money.
by Tycoon
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I’m a Loser Stuck in a Dead End Job
Replies: 63
Views: 7767

Re: I’m a Loser Stuck in a Dead End Job

You are no loser, and you aren't stuck in a dead-end in job. Make finding the job you want a full time job. Focus on where you want to be.
by Tycoon
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your hobby and how did it come to be your hobby?
Replies: 88
Views: 6338

Re: What is your hobby and how did it come to be your hobby?

My main hobby is investing. The prospect of living off investments appealed to me so I took on the challenge.
by Tycoon
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:37 pm
Tycoon wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:28 pm
KlangFool, you aren't missing anything. Your plan is sound and you'll do fine.
Why? Because valuations don’t matter?
For the same reason you'll be fine. Diversification.
by Tycoon
Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

KlangFool, you aren't missing anything. Your plan is sound and you'll do fine.
by Tycoon
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Minor received 1099-MISC for Internship
Replies: 27
Views: 1545

Re: Minor received 1099-MISC for Internship

Been there and done that. It's earned income. Save yourself, and your niece, the grief and pay the SE tax.
by Tycoon
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable fixed-income options for investing a windfall
Replies: 11
Views: 1017

Re: Taxable fixed-income options for investing a windfall

Alternately, we have no mortgage and the only credit accounts we have are cards. Both of our credit scores are in the 812 to 820 range.
by Tycoon
Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?
Replies: 51
Views: 3883

Re: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?

Over the years I learned that news just cluttered my thoughts. I never acted on any of it, and it took time and energy away from useful stuff. I tuned out many years ago. I've found that I'm much happier thinking for myself as opposed to having others think for me. I'd be dishonest if I didn't give ...
by Tycoon
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity valuation and not caring
Replies: 50
Views: 3015

Re: Equity valuation and not caring

I've never paid attention to equity valuation.
by Tycoon
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 117
Views: 8015

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

Extremely.
by Tycoon
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 657
Views: 74790

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Admiral wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:51 am
What's today's theory-of-the-moment on today's open? Just curious.
I am buying.
by Tycoon
Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11156

Re: International under-performance

I'm gonna have to agree with visualguy here. I immigrated to the US from the world's 2nd largest economy 10+ yrs ago. i grew up in upper-middle class with family connections to the business and political elites back in the motherland. I attended private New England boarding school and top 5 ranked ...
by Tycoon
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7974

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Of course not. That would be silly.
by Tycoon
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11156

Re: International under-performance

staythecourse wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:19 am
Personally, I have NO issues with folks being 100% U.S. equity, but have a problem with them lying to themselves WHY they are doing it.
That's a bit presumptuous.
by Tycoon
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3729
Views: 1074134

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Art of Invisibility by Kevin Mitnick
by Tycoon
Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: "Has the yield curve predicted the next US downturn?"
Replies: 8
Views: 903

Re: FT: "Has the yield curve predicted the next US downturn?"

For example, in April of 2014, Bloomberg surveyed 68 economists on their forecasts of the 10-year Treasury rate over the next six months. 68 out of 68 said it would rise. It fell. The unanimous judgement of 68 smart people was not even close to accurate. It is telling to note that many still follow...
by Tycoon
Wed Apr 03, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is $650 for a Roof Inspection Too Much?
Replies: 37
Views: 2640

Re: Is $650 for a Roof Inspection Too Much?

It shouldn't cost you anything. Just 20 minutes ago a random roofing salesman approached me while I was working in the yard. He wanted to inspect my roof.
by Tycoon
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IF we enter a financial crisis in the future, how are you going to adjust?
Replies: 57
Views: 3625

Re: IF we enter a financial crisis in the future, how are you going to adjust?

...humans are hard wired to respond to immediate threats and to discount long term threats. Some humans posting on this forum focus on nothing but long-term threats. Their imaginations run wild with inevitable possibilities. It's as if I've been teleported back to the 70's and I'm watching Day of t...
by Tycoon
Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 19260

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:45 pm
Watching CNBC today...
Ah-ha! Now I understand.
by Tycoon
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Your opinion on debt?
Replies: 111
Views: 6365

Re: Your opinion on debt?

Debt? We paid off our 5.625% debt many years ago and invested the money we would have paid the mortgage company. The investments have returned a good bit more than 10%. That's what I think about debt.
by Tycoon
Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to change the expected real returns in my model
Replies: 47
Views: 1733

Re: Good idea to change the expected real returns in my model

What does it matter? You'll never retire. :beer
by Tycoon
Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 259
Views: 21525

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

South Dakota? I don't think I've ever heard, or read, of anyone retiring to South Dakota. Maybe it's the hidden gem I've been searching for.
by Tycoon
Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: "Was the Stock-Market Boom Predictable?"
Replies: 65
Views: 4082

Re: Robert Shiller: "Was the Stock-Market Boom Predictable?"

Robert Shiller asks. "While the conventional wisdom holds that it is never possible to "time the market," it might seem that major shifts – like the quadrupling of the US stock market over the last decade – should be at least partly foreseeable. Why aren't they?" I am confused. Now, he things the b...
by Tycoon
Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: "Was the Stock-Market Boom Predictable?"
Replies: 65
Views: 4082

Re: Robert Shiller: "Was the Stock-Market Boom Predictable?"

Robert Shiller asks. "While the conventional wisdom holds that it is never possible to "time the market," it might seem that major shifts – like the quadrupling of the US stock market over the last decade – should be at least partly foreseeable. Why aren't they?" The quadrupling in the S&P 500 pric...
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tattoos and Bogleheads
Replies: 180
Views: 8444

Re: Tattoos and Bogleheads

Dumb question as no one in my family has tattoos. What happens when you get older and your skin start to wrinkle and you start loosing skin elasticity, does it change what the tattoo looks like? https://mymodernmet.com/tattooed-seniors-photographs/ Crap!!!! I'll never unring that bell. I knew bette...
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water Heater Anode Replacement
Replies: 24
Views: 1657

Re: Water Heater Anode Replacement

I would have changed the two in our tank if it were not for the fact that I couldn't get the old ones out. Not even with a five foot cheater bar :annoyed .
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Can Low income ppl become millionaire? [Hong Kong]
Replies: 38
Views: 2582

Re: Can Low income ppl become millionaire? [Hong Kong]

Yes, it is possible with aggressive savings and discipline.
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10391
Views: 1843629

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bastiat wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:55 am
For all the noise on here, people "going to cash", and the consternation in the last quarter last year, it's worth pointing out that we are getting ready to close the best quarter since Q3 2009, and the best Q1 since 1998.
Exactly. So many smart people making emotional decisions. Oh well.
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are used cars now so expensive?
Replies: 63
Views: 5166

Re: Why are used cars now so expensive?

Because consumers are willing to pay the price used car dealers are asking.
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you check your net worth?
Replies: 257
Views: 13995

Re: How often do you check your net worth?

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:05 pm
I'm a Quicken junkie so I see it every day. I don't actively seek it out, but it's just there on my screen. Can't help noticing it. And any up/down movement has no impact on my life.
Given you're 100% cash there shouldn't be very much up and down movement except for income and spending.
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 78
Views: 7183

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

I'm watching the unemployment rate. That seems to do a good job of signaling a recession, especially when it hits 4% and starts rising. Fun times! https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/images/uploads/2018/ES1816Fig2_rev_20180601094851.jpg Interestingly, I've made very good money in times of ...
by Tycoon
Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Half of American retirees have no savings
Replies: 49
Views: 1987

Re: The Retirement Crisis

There are 7.7 billion people in the world. I might argue that a very small fraction of them have a retirement plan. Crisis? I think not. Retirement plans are a recent development.
by Tycoon
Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads, do you have (unwise financially) friends? And how do you deal with them?
Replies: 76
Views: 3844

Re: Bogleheads, do you have (unwise financially) friends? And how do you deal with them?

I do have unwise friends. I am also aware of many unwise Bogleheads. My take is that people believe they are smarter than they actually are and generally don't want advice even though they may ask for it.
by Tycoon
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

"I assure you, that if the valuations aren't ridiculous, as they are now..." Were they not as "ridiculous" in December when you got back in? What was up with that? No, they weren't. Go back and read that thread if you want to get into the details. I will not rehash them all here. No thanks. I know ...
by Tycoon
Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 91
Views: 7506

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:25 am
No, living a balanced life has let me enjoy the years I have had so far and probably made me more appreciative of my job(s) along the way as I was seeing an immediate benefit from them.
Wait a minute. Are posting an answer to a question you asked in the orignal post?
by Tycoon
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64081

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Sure, you can. Just pick the S&P for stocks, and VBTLX or a predecessor prior to its existence. I'll bet that off-the-cuff rule of thumb you just gave outperforms the market over any 20 year time frame. Even if it didn't, I'll bet it gives up very little to the market in the worst performing 20-yr ...
by Tycoon
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 177
Views: 10026

Re: Market timers thread

The best way to improve your understanding is to discuss your ideas with smart people who disagree with you. Seems reasonable but I don’t think that improvement happens when OP creates “... this thread specifically for people who are trying to time the markets” Dissenting views are forbidden by the...
by Tycoon
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quiz: Worst asset class drawdowns since 1926 (real dollars)
Replies: 21
Views: 1343

Re: Quiz: Worst asset class drawdowns since 1926 (real dollars)

Thesaints wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:53 am
All financial vehicles are in the middle of a very long term, and very extreme, drawdown. Eventually, everything will be worth zero.
That's one bold prediction. Everything will be worth zero. I won't even be able to sell a kidney.
by Tycoon
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Prime Money Market and Ultra Short Term Bond Fund behaving this way?
Replies: 13
Views: 2719

Re: Why is Prime Money Market and Ultra Short Term Bond Fund behaving this way?

I don't know, but VMMXX has 52% Yankee/Foreign holdings and only 33% T-bills.
by Tycoon
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Sentiment A Negative Predictor?
Replies: 4
Views: 288

Re: Larry Swedroe: Sentiment A Negative Predictor?

livesoft wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:56 am
Whew! I was afraid he was going to reveal the bogleheads.org sentiment factor which is almost always accurately predictive.
I find this board to be a contrarian indicator.
by Tycoon
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 74
Views: 10669

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

Everyone sees the world as they think it should be. The world doesn't care what people think it should be. Predicting the future is pointless.
by Tycoon
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4635

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

Maybe, maybe not. I have been a US investor for 50 years, and a US ETF investor for about 30 years. We are so far ahead of the guys who did it "right" and diversified in international for that time period that I can weather a few years of possible US underperformance and still laugh all the way to ...