Search found 921 matches

by madsinger
Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)
Replies: 11
Views: 871

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)

Hot Hands? I have sorted the Vanguard stock funds by 2018 return, and have found only three funds with positive returns...one "specialty fund" and two diversified funds. I will be choosing the highest returning diversified fund for 2018 as the Hot Hands fund that I will track for 2019. Whether or no...
by madsinger
Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)
Replies: 11
Views: 871

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)

Very short term rebalancing bonus! I looked the annual returns for my stock, bond, and gold holdings in the PP. As noted above, sales of stocks three times throughout the year resulted in having "rate of return" of -3.87% while the Vanguard S&P 500 fund returned -4.43%. Similarly, the Vanguard Long ...
by madsinger
Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)
Replies: 11
Views: 871

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)

Well...here are the numbers for December and the year ending 2018. Unless you were hiding for the whole month (or perhaps you went into hiding after December 24th), these numbers are not surprising. US stocks down -9% to -11% for the month. Internationals fell "only" around -5% for the month. Bonds ...
by madsinger
Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2018)
Replies: 11
Views: 871

madsinger monthly report (December 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios,...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:30 pm
December might be fun.
Yes...and that is why I wanted to make sure I had "good" November numbers!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger needs a data point...
Replies: 1
Views: 316

Re: madsinger needs a data point...

Thanks to someone who sent the numbers to me, the monthly portfolio charts for November are up to date (just in time...)

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)

Finally updated with the November newsletter returns.
by madsinger
Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger needs a data point...
Replies: 1
Views: 316

madsinger needs a data point...

Normally, each month, the Newsletter website posts the YTD returns for the four portfolios they create. This month, the public charts were not updated for the November returns. If anyone has access to this information (YTD and monthly returns for the four portfolios) and would be willing to either r...
by madsinger
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)

November had a lot of bouncing around, but in the end, it was basically an up month. International stocks are down -10% for more for the year, long bonds are negative, and US stocks (as of November 30) are up near 5% YTD for large caps, but hovering around flat for small caps. The beginning of Decem...
by madsinger
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2018)
Replies: 7
Views: 809

madsinger monthly report (November 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...
by madsinger
Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 581

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2018)

Lots of negative signs on the chart this month. Not a lot of places to hide this month.... S&P 500 down almost -7%, small caps down around -10%, international down -8%, REITs down -3%, total bond fund down almost -1%, long bonds closer to -3%. Gold had its first positive month since last March, up a...
by madsinger
Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 581

madsinger monthly report (October 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)
Replies: 5
Views: 830

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

US stocks are now up over +10% YTD. Value stocks a bit less. International stocks are down for the year with emerging markets downs almost -9%. The portfolios that are US stock heavy are doing very well. Any tilt towards bonds and International lowers the returns. Gold continues a long streak of mon...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2018)
Replies: 5
Views: 830

madsinger monthly report (September 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20,...
by madsinger
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exchanging investments in 401K
Replies: 6
Views: 568

Re: Exchanging investments in 401K

The operating expenses of the funds are taken out of the holdings of the fund on an ongoing basis. If you have $20K in a fund with a 0.04% expense ratio, that means $8 per year will be taken out of your account to pay for expenses. This does not happen at any one time, but rather your account value ...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2018)
Replies: 1
Views: 500

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2018)

US Stocks continue their steady rise up in August, S&P 500 fund up 3.25%. Internationals fell a bit down -2.2% --- over 13% difference YTD between US and International. Gold fell another -2%, but the Vanguard PM fund fell almost -12% for the month! Gold itself down for the fifth straight month. The ...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2018)
Replies: 1
Views: 500

madsinger monthly report (August 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 916

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

As ResearchMed pointed out, I do not subscribe, so I have gone by either what I "thought" the HH fund would be, or someone who has subscribed has privately told me. Because the "official" fund is described in the Newsletter, I do not feel comfortable "publishing" it publicly. That said, RM did tell ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 916

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

Great to see Wellesley making some ground back (was down nearly 3% in April). Madsinger position in gold may start to perform well here imo. Looks like it wants to move higher :beer To be honest, I'm not really "rooting" for a rise in Gold prices. It's more like, if the price of gold rises, I hope ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 916

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

And a personal tribute to Neal Hudson, username: investor, who was always a supporter of these posts and who I had the opportunity to message with off and on over the past few years. statsguy announced his passing recently. It's a good reminder to me that these cold charts and anonymous postings on ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 916

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

July was a strong, positive month for stocks. US stocks up over 3%, but ranging from 1.8% for small caps, to 4.7% for US Value index. International up 2% to 3% as well. Total bonds were flat, with short gaining, and longs losing. Gold down for the fourth straight month. As a note, the Sheltered Sam ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 916

madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: RIP investor
Replies: 22
Views: 4518

Re: RIP investor

We had private messaged a few times, but I never knew his name. He was always kind to me, and to everyone else here. My thoughts are with his family and friends.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2018)
Replies: 5
Views: 1005

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2018)

US stocks up less than 1%, Internationals down -2%, bonds pretty flat. REITs were up over +4%. On the Permanent portfolio front, three up mildly, gold down about -3.5%. At the half way point of the year, and the PP is down almost -1%. Each of the three volatile asset classes has had relatively large...
by madsinger
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2018)
Replies: 5
Views: 1005

madsinger monthly report (June 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2018)
Replies: 3
Views: 861

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2018)

A spray of returns in May. US stocks up over +2%, US small caps up +4% to +5%. Bonds were positive as rates backed off a little from their long march upward, internationals down -1% to -3% hurt by the rising dollar. Stock heavy portfolios predictably did better than bond heavy portfolios. The perman...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2018)
Replies: 3
Views: 861

madsinger monthly report (May 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Thu May 24, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand zero coupon bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1028

Re: Help me understand zero coupon bonds

Just a question on a treasury bill. If I buy a 6 month bill in Oct 2018 is the tax due in 2018 or 2019 when in matures? The income from a treasury bill is considered "paid" at the maturity date. In the case of a six month bill purchased in October 2018, the "taxable event" (assuming you hold to mat...
by madsinger
Wed May 02, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 808

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2018)

By the end of the month, portfolios were all within about 0.5% of where they started. Stocks were generally slightly positive, total bond was down -0.8%, and the portfolios basically tracked these numbers. In the PP world, long bonds dropped about -2% for the month and gold down a bit. STOCK LONG BO...
by madsinger
Wed May 02, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 808

madsinger monthly report (April 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 458

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2018)

...and, March has followed in the footsteps of February. Lots of volatility, negative returns for stocks, and most of the portfolios. There were some positive returns for the month...small caps were up about 1% and REITs (after a rough couple of months to start the year) up 3.83%. Bonds were positiv...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 458

madsinger monthly report (March 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 711

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2018)

I had to find the "negative sign" on my keyboard for the first time in a while! Obviously, all of the portfolios took losses in February, although all ended the month much higher than the lows they hit on February 8! (up some 4% since then). This correction may have tested some of our tolerance to p...
by madsinger
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 711

madsinger monthly report (February 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...
by madsinger
Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3708

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

When putting the February 2018 data into my spreadsheet, I realized that I had made a mistake in my January 2018 spreadsheet (pointed to the wrong cell). This affected the 3,5,10,19 year returns for the portfolios that are made up of more than one fund. I have updated this spreadsheet (at the beginn...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7791

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

I just do not understand Modes. To me it is a version of the major scale with different starting points. This might be one of those concepts which is beyond my basic training. It also might be that I havent broken out of the major/minor scale rule. Most "western music" falls into "major" or "minor"...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
Replies: 27
Views: 4012

Re: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

The bets were first invested in a ten-year zero-coupon Treasury bond, then changed in 2012 (with both parties agreeing) to Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares (BRK.B). "Warren Buffett has won his $1 million bet against the hedge fund industry" - Business Insider Thanks for the information. So, their ...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
Replies: 27
Views: 4012

Re: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

I read it. Great story. But...let's see....each investor put up $320,000, expecting that to become $1,000,000 by the end of 10 years. Assuming that they meant $640,000 growing to $1M over 10 years, that would be a gain of 56%, or about 4.5% annualized return. Instead, it grew to $2.2M, an annualized...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7791

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Great discussion. I took a short class in music theory years ago...just enough to know a little bit. Let say a song has a key signature of 1 sharp.... G major. But, if it is started in Em, is it still technically in the key of E minor or is it G major key? Same with C and Aminor. Which key is it an...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7791

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

A separate note about the minor vs major. I would have thought "Rapture" by iio/Nadia Ali was minor based on the vocals. The underlying music may explain why it's major instead. This song is basically a three chord piece in e-minor: https://www.songsterr.com/a/wsa/nadia-ali-rapture-chords-s228978 T...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7791

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

* the famous exception would be Ravel's Bolero, which he described as "an exercise in monotony." And even that jumps briefly into G major at the end. Actually, it jumps from C Major to E Major, which is a big jump for the ear (major third), and an even bigger jump harmonically (4 more sharps!) -Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7791

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Anyway, I too find that for me different keys have distinctive "feels" to them regardless of instrumentation. It could be interactions with the instrument ranges, associations with instruments or particular pieces (even culturally inherited through composers influencing composers over generations),...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7791

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

One final thing -- "mean-tuned" is not to be confused with "meantone", a tuning scheme which is not at all equal in temperament. Thank you for your correction! As le_sacre (Stravinsky fan?) pointed out, strings are often in "sharps" and wind instruments in "flats". For this reason, many orchestral ...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7791

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Allow me to digress a little, as I have a question I've asked many "experts" for years without a satisfactory answer. Seems we have a few more experts here, too: It's often said that in the older days of classical music, the Key was chosen by the composer to reflect the mood he was aiming for. Bach...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3708

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

I love these monthly reports, thanks Madsinger! I am curious about something. Do you know the story behind those newsletters? I have to admit to being curious at their apparent outperformance of some very respectable funds and approaches. That may be due to slightly different Eq/Bond splits, but I'...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3708

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

When I first started doing these charts, smart phones did not exist, and I tried to format the charts to look good on a computer monitor. I still work at a computer all day, and rarely access the Boglehead site from a phone. However, I tried to look at these charts on my phone a while back, and real...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3708

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

It's been a busy month (out of town, getting caught up at work, etc.) so the report is late this month. Thinking way back to January (!) the stock market was up BIG. Bonds dropped some. REITs fell over -4%. The madsinger Permanent Portfolio behaved as it should have, with diverse asset classes going...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3708

madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1933

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Here are the returns for these three funds for 2016 and 2017: 2016 2017 Tax Managed small 25.73% 13.05% Small Value Adm 24.78% 11.80% Small Value Inv 24.65% 11.67% I have chosen to keep my charts using the investor class shares to keep them consistent over the years, and to allow them to be "realist...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1933

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

A word about "Hot Hands". Last year, I sorted the Vanguard "investor class" funds for returns, and the highest returning fund for 2016 was the Small Value Index fund. That is the fund I chose for HH 2017. I had been informed by a couple of people privately, that the fund from the newsletter was a di...