Search found 904 matches

by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 738

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

As ResearchMed pointed out, I do not subscribe, so I have gone by either what I "thought" the HH fund would be, or someone who has subscribed has privately told me. Because the "official" fund is described in the Newsletter, I do not feel comfortable "publishing" it publicly. That said, RM did tell ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 738

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

Great to see Wellesley making some ground back (was down nearly 3% in April). Madsinger position in gold may start to perform well here imo. Looks like it wants to move higher :beer To be honest, I'm not really "rooting" for a rise in Gold prices. It's more like, if the price of gold rises, I hope ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 738

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

And a personal tribute to Neal Hudson, username: investor, who was always a supporter of these posts and who I had the opportunity to message with off and on over the past few years. statsguy announced his passing recently. It's a good reminder to me that these cold charts and anonymous postings on ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 738

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

July was a strong, positive month for stocks. US stocks up over 3%, but ranging from 1.8% for small caps, to 4.7% for US Value index. International up 2% to 3% as well. Total bonds were flat, with short gaining, and longs losing. Gold down for the fourth straight month. As a note, the Sheltered Sam ...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2018)
Replies: 9
Views: 738

madsinger monthly report (July 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: RIP investor
Replies: 22
Views: 4058

Re: RIP investor

We had private messaged a few times, but I never knew his name. He was always kind to me, and to everyone else here. My thoughts are with his family and friends.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2018)
Replies: 5
Views: 953

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2018)

US stocks up less than 1%, Internationals down -2%, bonds pretty flat. REITs were up over +4%. On the Permanent portfolio front, three up mildly, gold down about -3.5%. At the half way point of the year, and the PP is down almost -1%. Each of the three volatile asset classes has had relatively large...
by madsinger
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2018)
Replies: 5
Views: 953

madsinger monthly report (June 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2018)
Replies: 3
Views: 770

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2018)

A spray of returns in May. US stocks up over +2%, US small caps up +4% to +5%. Bonds were positive as rates backed off a little from their long march upward, internationals down -1% to -3% hurt by the rising dollar. Stock heavy portfolios predictably did better than bond heavy portfolios. The perman...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2018)
Replies: 3
Views: 770

madsinger monthly report (May 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Thu May 24, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand zero coupon bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 897

Re: Help me understand zero coupon bonds

Just a question on a treasury bill. If I buy a 6 month bill in Oct 2018 is the tax due in 2018 or 2019 when in matures? The income from a treasury bill is considered "paid" at the maturity date. In the case of a six month bill purchased in October 2018, the "taxable event" (assuming you hold to mat...
by madsinger
Wed May 02, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 715

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2018)

By the end of the month, portfolios were all within about 0.5% of where they started. Stocks were generally slightly positive, total bond was down -0.8%, and the portfolios basically tracked these numbers. In the PP world, long bonds dropped about -2% for the month and gold down a bit. STOCK LONG BO...
by madsinger
Wed May 02, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2018)
Replies: 4
Views: 715

madsinger monthly report (April 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 406

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2018)

...and, March has followed in the footsteps of February. Lots of volatility, negative returns for stocks, and most of the portfolios. There were some positive returns for the month...small caps were up about 1% and REITs (after a rough couple of months to start the year) up 3.83%. Bonds were positiv...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 406

madsinger monthly report (March 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 650

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2018)

I had to find the "negative sign" on my keyboard for the first time in a while! Obviously, all of the portfolios took losses in February, although all ended the month much higher than the lows they hit on February 8! (up some 4% since then). This correction may have tested some of our tolerance to p...
by madsinger
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2018)
Replies: 2
Views: 650

madsinger monthly report (February 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...
by madsinger
Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3384

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

When putting the February 2018 data into my spreadsheet, I realized that I had made a mistake in my January 2018 spreadsheet (pointed to the wrong cell). This affected the 3,5,10,19 year returns for the portfolios that are made up of more than one fund. I have updated this spreadsheet (at the beginn...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7056

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

I just do not understand Modes. To me it is a version of the major scale with different starting points. This might be one of those concepts which is beyond my basic training. It also might be that I havent broken out of the major/minor scale rule. Most "western music" falls into "major" or "minor"...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
Replies: 27
Views: 3746

Re: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

The bets were first invested in a ten-year zero-coupon Treasury bond, then changed in 2012 (with both parties agreeing) to Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares (BRK.B). "Warren Buffett has won his $1 million bet against the hedge fund industry" - Business Insider Thanks for the information. So, their ...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
Replies: 27
Views: 3746

Re: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

I read it. Great story. But...let's see....each investor put up $320,000, expecting that to become $1,000,000 by the end of 10 years. Assuming that they meant $640,000 growing to $1M over 10 years, that would be a gain of 56%, or about 4.5% annualized return. Instead, it grew to $2.2M, an annualized...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7056

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Great discussion. I took a short class in music theory years ago...just enough to know a little bit. Let say a song has a key signature of 1 sharp.... G major. But, if it is started in Em, is it still technically in the key of E minor or is it G major key? Same with C and Aminor. Which key is it an...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7056

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

A separate note about the minor vs major. I would have thought "Rapture" by iio/Nadia Ali was minor based on the vocals. The underlying music may explain why it's major instead. This song is basically a three chord piece in e-minor: https://www.songsterr.com/a/wsa/nadia-ali-rapture-chords-s228978 T...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7056

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

* the famous exception would be Ravel's Bolero, which he described as "an exercise in monotony." And even that jumps briefly into G major at the end. Actually, it jumps from C Major to E Major, which is a big jump for the ear (major third), and an even bigger jump harmonically (4 more sharps!) -Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7056

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Anyway, I too find that for me different keys have distinctive "feels" to them regardless of instrumentation. It could be interactions with the instrument ranges, associations with instruments or particular pieces (even culturally inherited through composers influencing composers over generations),...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7056

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

One final thing -- "mean-tuned" is not to be confused with "meantone", a tuning scheme which is not at all equal in temperament. Thank you for your correction! As le_sacre (Stravinsky fan?) pointed out, strings are often in "sharps" and wind instruments in "flats". For this reason, many orchestral ...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 102
Views: 7056

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Allow me to digress a little, as I have a question I've asked many "experts" for years without a satisfactory answer. Seems we have a few more experts here, too: It's often said that in the older days of classical music, the Key was chosen by the composer to reflect the mood he was aiming for. Bach...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3384

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

I love these monthly reports, thanks Madsinger! I am curious about something. Do you know the story behind those newsletters? I have to admit to being curious at their apparent outperformance of some very respectable funds and approaches. That may be due to slightly different Eq/Bond splits, but I'...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3384

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

When I first started doing these charts, smart phones did not exist, and I tried to format the charts to look good on a computer monitor. I still work at a computer all day, and rarely access the Boglehead site from a phone. However, I tried to look at these charts on my phone a while back, and real...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3384

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

It's been a busy month (out of town, getting caught up at work, etc.) so the report is late this month. Thinking way back to January (!) the stock market was up BIG. Bonds dropped some. REITs fell over -4%. The madsinger Permanent Portfolio behaved as it should have, with diverse asset classes going...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3384

madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Here are the returns for these three funds for 2016 and 2017: 2016 2017 Tax Managed small 25.73% 13.05% Small Value Adm 24.78% 11.80% Small Value Inv 24.65% 11.67% I have chosen to keep my charts using the investor class shares to keep them consistent over the years, and to allow them to be "realist...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

A word about "Hot Hands". Last year, I sorted the Vanguard "investor class" funds for returns, and the highest returning fund for 2016 was the Small Value Index fund. That is the fund I chose for HH 2017. I had been informed by a couple of people privately, that the fund from the newsletter was a di...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Portfolios all positive for 2017 --- not just positive, but double-digit positive! Ranging from 10% - 22%. The S&P 500 was positive every single month in 2017 (as shown in the chart below). The permanent portfolio was up over 10%, which is really not an expected result. All four asset classes postin...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly reports from Madsinger
Replies: 2
Views: 337

Re: Monthly reports from Madsinger

Sorry about that! I was busy earlier this month, and then...well...forgot about it!

Here's the link:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=238119&p=3722527
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1766

madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013, and 2015 (19 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios,...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2017)
Replies: 2
Views: 748

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2017)

US stocks up over 3% for the month. Everything else was rather tame by comparison. S&P 500 is up every single month (so far) this year. I read somewhere on the internet (so it must be true!) that if it is positive for December, it will be the first year this has happened since the 1950's. Permanent ...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2017)
Replies: 2
Views: 748

madsinger monthly report (November 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...
by madsinger
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1878

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Data looks great. But I wish the actual fund names were listed that correspond to those ticker symbols :confused VFINX: 500 Index Fund VIVAX: Value Index NAESX: Small-Cap Index VISVX: Small-Cap Value Index VGSIX: REIT Index VGTSX: Total International Stock Index VINEX: International Explorer VBMFX:...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1878

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Another positive month for US stocks. Every month this year has had positive returns for the S&P 500. All four components of the permanent portfolio are positive for the year and two with double digit returns. Enjoy the returns in your portfolio, but don't forget to rebalance and confirm that your p...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1878

madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)
Replies: 5
Views: 1230

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)

Long Bonds and Gold took a hit in September, while stocks rose to records again. The S&P 500 index has not only had a good year, it has been positive every month of the year! That kind of "steadiness" is very nice, but I hope does not lead investors into a false sense of security! STOCK LONG BOND CA...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)
Replies: 5
Views: 1230

madsinger monthly report (September 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20,...
by madsinger
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping question....Applebees
Replies: 87
Views: 8507

Re: Tipping question....Applebees

My wife and I went to a pizza place for dinner last weekend. We ordered a small pizza to split. They brought out complimentary rolls and olive oil for dipping. We drink water with our meals. We had a nice meal, nice ambiance, and a chance to talk without distraction for an hour. Our bill was $11.99 ...
by madsinger
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment
Replies: 24
Views: 2261

Re: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment

From March 31, 2000 to September 20, 2007 (7-1/2 years), $10,000 in S&P 500 went up to $11,500 (up +2% per year) and the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth fund had $10,000 drop to $8,610 (down -2% per year). Total up 15% versus down 14%. Pretty bad underperformance over seven years. Yes, of course I cherry ...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2799

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Thanks! I'm too scared to go all the way back to center, but maybe your bands are tight enough that I could do that. For instance, you said ST bonds were 10% below target, if target was 8%, then falling to 7.2% is "tight" and still 10% below target, so rebalancing back to 8% would be easy for me to...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2799

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

We also hit a high trigger point based on Monday's closing prices and rebalanced, but bought some small-cap value. Did you rebalance back to the center point of your rebalancing bands or to just under the trigger point? I go back to the AA target...basically the center of the band. Usually when som...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2799

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Rebalanced yesterday. Sold a chunk of US stock and a bigger chunk of International stock to buy short term bonds. The records being set in the stock indexes finally pushed them over my (tight) rebalancing band. The laggard this year has been cash and short term bonds, as long bonds, gold and stocks ...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2799

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Question : Are the costs of the newsletters accounted for in the returns? Do you know what the newsletters do cost? The cost of the newsletter is not included in the returns. I am not a subscriber, so I don't have a first hand account. My understanding is the cost is about $100 per year. On a $100,...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2799

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

updated chart with newsletter results.

-Brad.