Search found 885 matches

by madsinger
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
Replies: 10
Views: 1627

Re: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

The bets were first invested in a ten-year zero-coupon Treasury bond, then changed in 2012 (with both parties agreeing) to Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares (BRK.B). "Warren Buffett has won his $1 million bet against the hedge fund industry" - Business Insider Thanks for the information. So, their ...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet
Replies: 10
Views: 1627

Re: How Warren Buffett Won His Multi-Million Dollar Long Bet

I read it. Great story. But...let's see....each investor put up $320,000, expecting that to become $1,000,000 by the end of 10 years. Assuming that they meant $640,000 growing to $1M over 10 years, that would be a gain of 56%, or about 4.5% annualized return. Instead, it grew to $2.2M, an annualized...
by madsinger
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 91
Views: 4849

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Great discussion. I took a short class in music theory years ago...just enough to know a little bit. Let say a song has a key signature of 1 sharp.... G major. But, if it is started in Em, is it still technically in the key of E minor or is it G major key? Same with C and Aminor. Which key is it an...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 91
Views: 4849

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

A separate note about the minor vs major. I would have thought "Rapture" by iio/Nadia Ali was minor based on the vocals. The underlying music may explain why it's major instead. This song is basically a three chord piece in e-minor: https://www.songsterr.com/a/wsa/nadia-ali-rapture-chords-s228978 T...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 91
Views: 4849

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

* the famous exception would be Ravel's Bolero, which he described as "an exercise in monotony." And even that jumps briefly into G major at the end. Actually, it jumps from C Major to E Major, which is a big jump for the ear (major third), and an even bigger jump harmonically (4 more sharps!) -Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 91
Views: 4849

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Anyway, I too find that for me different keys have distinctive "feels" to them regardless of instrumentation. It could be interactions with the instrument ranges, associations with instruments or particular pieces (even culturally inherited through composers influencing composers over generations),...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 91
Views: 4849

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

One final thing -- "mean-tuned" is not to be confused with "meantone", a tuning scheme which is not at all equal in temperament. Thank you for your correction! As le_sacre (Stravinsky fan?) pointed out, strings are often in "sharps" and wind instruments in "flats". For this reason, many orchestral ...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for music experts about musical keys
Replies: 91
Views: 4849

Re: Question for music experts about musical keys

Allow me to digress a little, as I have a question I've asked many "experts" for years without a satisfactory answer. Seems we have a few more experts here, too: It's often said that in the older days of classical music, the Key was chosen by the composer to reflect the mood he was aiming for. Bach...
by madsinger
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 19
Views: 1523

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

I love these monthly reports, thanks Madsinger! I am curious about something. Do you know the story behind those newsletters? I have to admit to being curious at their apparent outperformance of some very respectable funds and approaches. That may be due to slightly different Eq/Bond splits, but I'...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 19
Views: 1523

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

When I first started doing these charts, smart phones did not exist, and I tried to format the charts to look good on a computer monitor. I still work at a computer all day, and rarely access the Boglehead site from a phone. However, I tried to look at these charts on my phone a while back, and real...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 19
Views: 1523

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

It's been a busy month (out of town, getting caught up at work, etc.) so the report is late this month. Thinking way back to January (!) the stock market was up BIG. Bonds dropped some. REITs fell over -4%. The madsinger Permanent Portfolio behaved as it should have, with diverse asset classes going...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 19
Views: 1523

madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1527

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Here are the returns for these three funds for 2016 and 2017: 2016 2017 Tax Managed small 25.73% 13.05% Small Value Adm 24.78% 11.80% Small Value Inv 24.65% 11.67% I have chosen to keep my charts using the investor class shares to keep them consistent over the years, and to allow them to be "realist...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1527

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

A word about "Hot Hands". Last year, I sorted the Vanguard "investor class" funds for returns, and the highest returning fund for 2016 was the Small Value Index fund. That is the fund I chose for HH 2017. I had been informed by a couple of people privately, that the fund from the newsletter was a di...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1527

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Portfolios all positive for 2017 --- not just positive, but double-digit positive! Ranging from 10% - 22%. The S&P 500 was positive every single month in 2017 (as shown in the chart below). The permanent portfolio was up over 10%, which is really not an expected result. All four asset classes postin...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly reports from Madsinger
Replies: 2
Views: 310

Re: Monthly reports from Madsinger

Sorry about that! I was busy earlier this month, and then...well...forgot about it!

Here's the link:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=238119&p=3722527
by madsinger
Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1527

madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013, and 2015 (19 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios,...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2017)
Replies: 2
Views: 687

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2017)

US stocks up over 3% for the month. Everything else was rather tame by comparison. S&P 500 is up every single month (so far) this year. I read somewhere on the internet (so it must be true!) that if it is positive for December, it will be the first year this has happened since the 1950's. Permanent ...
by madsinger
Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2017)
Replies: 2
Views: 687

madsinger monthly report (November 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...
by madsinger
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1712

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Data looks great. But I wish the actual fund names were listed that correspond to those ticker symbols :confused VFINX: 500 Index Fund VIVAX: Value Index NAESX: Small-Cap Index VISVX: Small-Cap Value Index VGSIX: REIT Index VGTSX: Total International Stock Index VINEX: International Explorer VBMFX:...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1712

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Another positive month for US stocks. Every month this year has had positive returns for the S&P 500. All four components of the permanent portfolio are positive for the year and two with double digit returns. Enjoy the returns in your portfolio, but don't forget to rebalance and confirm that your p...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2017)
Replies: 9
Views: 1712

madsinger monthly report (October 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)
Replies: 5
Views: 1106

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)

Long Bonds and Gold took a hit in September, while stocks rose to records again. The S&P 500 index has not only had a good year, it has been positive every month of the year! That kind of "steadiness" is very nice, but I hope does not lead investors into a false sense of security! STOCK LONG BOND CA...
by madsinger
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2017)
Replies: 5
Views: 1106

madsinger monthly report (September 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20,...
by madsinger
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping question....Applebees
Replies: 87
Views: 7446

Re: Tipping question....Applebees

My wife and I went to a pizza place for dinner last weekend. We ordered a small pizza to split. They brought out complimentary rolls and olive oil for dipping. We drink water with our meals. We had a nice meal, nice ambiance, and a chance to talk without distraction for an hour. Our bill was $11.99 ...
by madsinger
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment
Replies: 24
Views: 1488

Re: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment

From March 31, 2000 to September 20, 2007 (7-1/2 years), $10,000 in S&P 500 went up to $11,500 (up +2% per year) and the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth fund had $10,000 drop to $8,610 (down -2% per year). Total up 15% versus down 14%. Pretty bad underperformance over seven years. Yes, of course I cherry ...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2546

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Thanks! I'm too scared to go all the way back to center, but maybe your bands are tight enough that I could do that. For instance, you said ST bonds were 10% below target, if target was 8%, then falling to 7.2% is "tight" and still 10% below target, so rebalancing back to 8% would be easy for me to...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2546

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

We also hit a high trigger point based on Monday's closing prices and rebalanced, but bought some small-cap value. Did you rebalance back to the center point of your rebalancing bands or to just under the trigger point? I go back to the AA target...basically the center of the band. Usually when som...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2546

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Rebalanced yesterday. Sold a chunk of US stock and a bigger chunk of International stock to buy short term bonds. The records being set in the stock indexes finally pushed them over my (tight) rebalancing band. The laggard this year has been cash and short term bonds, as long bonds, gold and stocks ...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2546

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Question : Are the costs of the newsletters accounted for in the returns? Do you know what the newsletters do cost? The cost of the newsletter is not included in the returns. I am not a subscriber, so I don't have a first hand account. My understanding is the cost is about $100 per year. On a $100,...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2546

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

updated chart with newsletter results.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2546

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Stocks ended the month on a strong note, bringing most of the portfolios positive for the month. The trend of large beating small and growth beating value continued this month. So, any portfolios tilting towards "small" and "value" underperformed their total stock returns again. For the year, total ...
by madsinger
Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2017)
Replies: 14
Views: 2546

madsinger monthly report (August 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Intl Index Fund:ADMRL vs INVESTOR
Replies: 8
Views: 1425

Re: Vanguard Total Intl Index Fund:ADMRL vs INVESTOR

Related question: With the expense ratio, over time, won't there be a price-per-share drift over a long enough timeline? That half-gallon container might be more like a 3/8 gallon container after a decade. It could...except probably not. The expense ratio tends to be taken out of the dividends. As ...
by madsinger
Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1226

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Some boffo numbers for the first seven months of 2017. Many portfolios sporting double digit returns year to date. There is quite a bit of spread in the asset classes this year: US Large (S&P 500) up +11.5%, small cap and large value around 6-7%, and tilt darling small value just 3.3% YTD (SV was th...
by madsinger
Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1226

madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 993

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2017)

The first half of 2017 has been quite good to investors. Stock heavy portfolios up near 10%, and even conservative portfolios with 50% or less stock are up around 5%. Portfolios whose US stocks tilt toward small and value have not kept up with "total stock" portfolios this year (Total Stock up about...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 993

madsinger monthly report (June 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1397

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)

Permanent Portfolio had a good month, helped again (to my surprise) by Long Bonds, up +1.74% for the month. Such an odd comment to make from a boglehead. Do you have any data to support being able to predict with any accuracy short term movement of Long term treasuries? You are absolutely right. Of...
by madsinger
Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1397

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)

US stocks moved less in sync in May than they have in a long time. US Large: +1.39%, YTD: 8.6% US Large Value: +0.11%, YTD: 3.3% US Small: -1.15%, YTD: 3.4% US Small Value: -2.36%, YTD: -0.05% So, any tilt towards "value" or "small" away from Total Stock Market has resulted in lower returns for the ...
by madsinger
Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2017)
Replies: 6
Views: 1397

madsinger monthly report (May 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Tue May 09, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1571

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

investor wrote:Brad: here are the newsletter data:
fund, month, ytd

Growth 1.5%, 8.1%
Con Gw 1.3%, 7.5%
Income 1.4%, 6.8%
Growth Idx 1.3%, 7.2%

Thanks for your time and postings.

investor
Thank you, investor. I have updated the charts with this data.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon May 08, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1571

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

Did coffeehouse really not go up as much as LS MG (VSMGX)? The differences between these two portfolios all "favored" the Life Strategy funds this past month. Total International fund was up +2.2% for the month (the largest return of the component classes this month), and the LS fund is 24% Total I...
by madsinger
Mon May 08, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1571

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

A little late this month. Nothing too out of the ordinary for a generally positive month. Europe, and thus international stocks, had a good month. Positive returns for the four segments of the permanent portfolio this past month and year to date numbers are pretty gawdy after four months. We all kno...
by madsinger
Mon May 08, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2017)
Replies: 8
Views: 1571

madsinger monthly report (April 2017)

Busy week last week --- just getting this out now. Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four cat...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foolish question about VT [Vanguard Total World Stock]
Replies: 10
Views: 1380

Re: Foolish question about VT

I thought you were going to ask a foolish question about Vermont. Perhaps you should revise your question so you won't attract readers like me. Me too! Without looking at the question, I was coming up with possible answers! "yes, we drink maple sap from the trees" "yes, public nudity is allowed in ...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 923

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2017)

A fairly mild month of returns. International stocks had a strong month. Permanent portfolio numbers: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January 1.85% 0.65% 0.08% 5.32% 1.93% February 3.92% 1.57% 0.08% 3.17% 2.16% March 0.07% -0.58% 0.09% -0.25% -0.16% YTD 5.75% 2.59% 0.25% 8.94% 4.28%
by madsinger
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2017)
Replies: 4
Views: 923

madsinger monthly report (March 2017)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a beginner opening a ROTH at Vanguard
Replies: 16
Views: 1832

Re: Help for a beginner opening a ROTH at Vanguard

Congratulations on deciding to start a Roth IRA at 29! To start a Roth IRA at Vanguard, I believe the minimum investment amount is $1000. If you have that to get started, great! If not, just continue to save (in a bank account?) until you do. Vanguard's Target Retirement funds have a $1000 minimum i...
by madsinger
Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 2188

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2017)

Rebalance update: For those following the madsinger portfolio to see how a real-world portfolio behaves, I wanted to let you know that yesterday I rebalanced by selling some Total Internaional Stock fund and buying my Short Term bond fund. And to update my last rebalance effort, against my gut and i...