Search found 982 matches

by madsinger
Thu Sep 21, 2023 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard - locked out [Resolved]
Replies: 20
Views: 3402

Re: Vanguard - locked out

JBTX wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2023 10:20 am Resolution!!!!

Moral of the story - never ever lose your security questions at vanguard or you may be in for a world of hurt.
Thank you for this tip. I just logged into Vanguard and went to the "Security Questions" page. I wasn't sure I knew those answers, so I updated the questions and answers and WROTE THEM DOWN!

Although I hadn't been worried about this, your posts alerted me. Thanks for sharing your story.

Brad.
by madsinger
Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2020)
Replies: 1
Views: 2668

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2020)

November was the best monthly return in the US stock markets in over 30 years. Returns ranging from +11% to +18% in US large and small, Internationals up 13%. Bonds were also up. The permanent portfolio had a big range of returns in the asset classes... +11% in S&P 500, good (albeit, not eye-popping) bond returns, and gold was down over -5% for the month. I did a rebalance out of stocks and into bonds and gold during the month. Gold promptly fell over 5% between Nov 17 (the day I rebalanced) and the end of the month! Alas, the plight of the band-driven rebalancer. For the year, PP is up almost 14% with strong YTD returns in the three "non-cash" assets, and a healthy 3+% return in short bonds. -Brad. STOCK LONG BOND SHORT BOND ...
by madsinger
Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2020)
Replies: 1
Views: 2668

madsinger monthly report (November 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFI...
by madsinger
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2020)
Replies: 1
Views: 521

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2020)

US stocks started October with gains, but ended with a thump in the final week. For the year, fair modest gains in the broad indexes. This year, tilting towards "small" and/or "value" have hurt returns compared the the Total Market. Tilting towards international have hurt returns as well. As the chart shows, the portfolios tilting this way have dramatically underperformed the market. The big winner this year is US Large Growth (and the Hot Hands shows this). A second month of negative returns in the permanent portfolio. For the year, Long Bond and Gold have returned over 20% and has the PP up about 12% for the year. November seems to be off to a strong start, but as we know too well, things can change in a hurry. -Brad. ...
by madsinger
Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2020)
Replies: 1
Views: 521

madsinger monthly report (October 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIA...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)
Replies: 9
Views: 2164

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

As I was getting my stuff ready to make the September report, I went back and realized that I had never submitted my August report. Sorry for the delay. August was a strong month for the portfolios (although that is quite "dated" information here on the last day of September). The portfolios that tilt towards small and value are doing much worse than total markets, or most obviously, against "portfolios" that lean towards large and growth (notably, the "Hot Hands" fund this year). In August, the madsinger permanent portfolio assets went in all directions. Stocks up big, long bonds down big, short bonds and gold close to even. This made for a rather flat month for the PP (see below). I expect the have the Septem...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)
Replies: 9
Views: 2164

madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25...
by madsinger
Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2020)
Replies: 11
Views: 2496

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2020)

Here's an explanation of the "Hot Hand" portfolio. The newsletter writer has observed that a Vanguard fund that did well one year often did well the next. The "Hot Hand" "portfolio" is not really a "portfolio" at all, but rather a single fund. The method for selecting the fund has been described as looking at all Vanguard "diversified" stock funds, and selecting the fund that had the highest return for one year, and holding it for the next year. At the end of each year, a new "Hot hand" fund is selected and held. For example, in 2017, the #1 performing diversified Vanguard Stock fund was "International Growth Fund". So, for 2018, the the "Hot Hand" portfolio con...
by madsinger
Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2020)
Replies: 11
Views: 2496

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2020)

Another strong month for the portfolios. The portfolios that use a "small cap" or "value" tilt are trailing the Total Stock portfolios by quite a bit this year. The largest 5 US stocks, by market capitalization (and thus, top 5 Total Stock and S&P 500 stocks) are up over 30% YTD, and the rest of the market is basically flat. US Large Value stocks are down over -12% through July, and Small Value is down almost -19% YTD. By contrast, Large US Growth is up over +20% YTD. The four permanent portfolio asset classes are now all positive for 2020. Long Bonds and Gold up almost +30% YTD. Gold was up over +11% for the month of July. The falling dollar against other major currencies (down -5% in July) was about half of gold's ...
by madsinger
Sat Aug 08, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2020)
Replies: 11
Views: 2496

madsinger monthly report (July 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% ...
by madsinger
Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)
Replies: 4
Views: 1009

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

tj wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:11 pm Does the newsletter actually produce some sort of secret sauce? Or just continuous dumb luck?
I don't know what these portfolios hold (I know they're made up of Vanguard funds, but I don't know which ones).

I do know that during a stretch from 2000 to 2010, these portfolios were marketed as a reliable way to beat the S&P 500. There was a running tab of showing how much the growth portfolio was ahead of the S&P 500 fund.

You can see that since 2010, the S&P 500 fund has bested all portfolios by a significant amount.

Secret sauce in the S&P 500?

Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)
Replies: 4
Views: 1009

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

A mostly positive month of June for the asset classes. The only "down" performer in the funds held by the portfolios was US Large value. For the first half of the year, growth stocks soundly outpaced value stocks. The "Hot Hands" fund is a growth stock fund, and is up over +11% for the year. Most of the "slicing and dicing" portfolios overweight funds holding value stocks, and these are lagging the total stock holdings. All four asset classes in the Permanent Portfolio were up for June (with Gold leading the way). The PP is up 9.66% for the first half of the year, which is well above historical averages. The (what is now) minor loss in the S&P 500 fund was more than offset by the large returns in Long Bonds...
by madsinger
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)
Replies: 4
Views: 1009

madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% ...
by madsinger
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2020)
Replies: 14
Views: 1836

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2020)

Is the Hot Hands portfolio the strategy the Dan Wiener uses (or used to employ) in his newsletter: sticking with the current best performing Vanguard fund until that fund is outperformed by another and then switching to that one on an annual basis and so on and so on……..? If so, it’s interesting and an impressive period of outperformance, lending credence to the momentum factor concept. It appears that this has been mostly answered! But, yes, this is what this "report" is tracking. The past year and 5 months has been a good stretch for the strategy. However, it is certainly a bumpy ride. You can see from this report for December 2018: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=268481 the Hot Hands had a 5-year annualized re...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2020)
Replies: 14
Views: 1836

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2020)

Another strong month for the portfolios in May. Stocks continue strong rebound off of March lows. Bonds (short and intermediate) held up well.

Only Long Bonds were negative in the Permanent Portfolio. Crazy high returns in long bonds and gold for the year have pushed the PP return to almost 8% at the end of may.

Code: Select all

           STOCK   LONG BOND  SHORT BOND   GOLD     PORTFOLIO 
January   -0.04%     7.34%      0.95%      4.62%      3.19%
February  -8.23%     6.37%      0.69%     -0.66%     -0.42%
March    -11.48%     6.64%     -4.37%      0.68%     -2.19%
April     12.76%     1.73%      2.44%      6.90%      5.74%
May        4.69%    -1.72%      1.20%      2.61%      1.67%
   
YTD       -3.49%    23.43%      1.03%     14.06%      7.95%
by madsinger
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2020)
Replies: 14
Views: 1836

madsinger monthly report (May 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25%...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2020)
Replies: 5
Views: 1304

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2020)

One of the worst months in stock market history (March) followed by one of the best months in stock market history (April). US Stocks up 10% to 15%. International stocks up 7% to 9%. Bonds ranged from +1% to +3%. Gold up almost 7%. Stocks are still down quite a bit for the year to date, and small caps quite a bit below large caps. The four asset classes of the Permanent Portfolio were up in April, and the portfolio is up a strong 6.18% for the first four months of the year. After many rebalance steps in late February and March, no moves made in April (which is more typical of how this works!) STOCK LONG BOND SHORT BOND GOLD PORTFOLIO January -0.04% 7.34% 0.95% 4.62% 3.19% February -8.23% 6.37% 0.69% -0.66% -0.42% March -11.48% 6.64% -4.37% ...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2020)
Replies: 5
Views: 1304

madsinger monthly report (April 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25%...
by madsinger
Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2020)
Replies: 2
Views: 774

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2020)

No real surprises in this report, but some hard numbers. US large stocks down -12% to -13% for the month, and -20% to -21% for the past three months. Large value down a bit more -15% for the month, -25% for the year. Small caps down -22% for the month, -30% for the year to date, and small value down -25% for the month, -35% year to date. Foreign stocks down about -25% for the year. REITs down about -24% YTD. Total bonds were down about -0.5% for the month, but lots of variation. Long Treasuries were up sharply, +6% for the month, about 22% for the year. Short treasuries up +1.2% for the month, short corporate bonds down over -4%. Gold was basically flat for the month. The permanent portfolio was down -2% for the month, but is still positive...
by madsinger
Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2020)
Replies: 2
Views: 774

madsinger monthly report (March 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25%...
by madsinger
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2020)
Replies: 3
Views: 984

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2020)

For the second time in 8 trading days, I have sold long bonds and bought US stocks to rebalance my portfolio. This is the fastest re-re-balance I can remember. In the past 8 days, long bonds are up over 12%, and US stocks are down over -8%. This "20%" deviation has caused another rebalancing band to be crossed. Of course, hindsight tells me that I should not have sold bonds and bought stocks last month, but my approach does not make predictions on the market, only tries to keep my allocation within my desired range, and I have done that.

Now, let's see what the next two weeks will bring...

-Brad.
by madsinger
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2020)
Replies: 3
Views: 984

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2020)

Well...that was interesting. After being up for the first 21 day of the month, and setting records, the stocks fell more than 10% in the final week. As such, the portfolios were all down for the month, and all down for the year. Well, almost all! The continued drop in long term interest rates (below 1% on the 10-year treasury) has shot the prices of long bonds up and up. At the end of February, long bonds were up over 14%. The -3% drop in gold on the last trading day of the month brought gold returns down for the month and brought the Permanent Portfolio down to a -0.42% drop for the month. But, the PP is still up +2.76% YTD, which is just the kind of reduced volatility one hopes for with four low-correlation asset classes making up the por...
by madsinger
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2020)
Replies: 3
Views: 984

madsinger monthly report (February 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their fEBRUARY 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, ...
by madsinger
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2020)
Replies: 2
Views: 1872

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2020)

Happy 2020 all! A little rough sailing in the stock market right at the end of January pulled portfolios down for the month. US Large growth did quite well, while value and small caps were down -2 to -3%. International stocks down -3% to -5% for emerging markets. Bonds were up, +2% for total Bond, and Long Bonds up over 7%! Gold was also up sharply (over +4.5%). The first few days of February have reversed these trends, and we'll wait and see what the rest of the month holds.

The Permanent Portfolio was up over +3% for the month, thanks to strong returns in Long Bonds and Gold.

Code: Select all

          STOCK   LONG BOND  SHORT BOND    GOLD    PORTFOLIO 
January   -0.04%    7.34%       0.95%      4.62%     3.19%
by madsinger
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2020)
Replies: 2
Views: 1872

madsinger monthly report (January 2020)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% V...
by madsinger
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)
Replies: 10
Views: 2112

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)

ram wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:49 am I always read your report. Keep them coming.
Thanks for the note, ram! I'll do just that!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)
Replies: 10
Views: 2112

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)

Trader Joe wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:31 pmI do wonder though, whatever happened to the Paul Merriman Ultimate By and Hold Portfolio. Is this the same portfolio as the Slide and Dice (S&D) listed in your Monthly Report?
I think Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold is a bit closer to the "Sheltered Sam" portfolio, with US holdings in Large, Large Value, Small, Small Value, REIT, and internationals L, LV, S, SV, EM. This portfolio is 50% international which has not fared as well as US in the past decade, so I suspect it may look a bit lower than most of the others on this chart. The ideas are very similar to Sheltered Sam, and to the Coffeehouse "stock" part of the portfolio.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)
Replies: 10
Views: 2112

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2019) and iceport Annual Report :)

iceport wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:20 am My target portfolio allocations, now fixed indefinitely, look like this:

30% US Equity
4% US REIT
4% ex-US Real Estate
18% ex-US Equity
44% Fixed Income

Interestingly, the iceport returns are quite similar to the madsinger returns. 8-)
Yes, iceport, our returns are very similar...due to our very similar allocations! My asset allocation is basically:

33.33% (1/3) US Equity
16.67% (1/6) ex-US Equity
5.56% (1/18) US REIT
33.33% (1/3) Bonds (divided Long, Int., and short, 1/9, 1/9, 1/9)
11.11% (1/9) Gold (IAU)

If I traded my IAU for Bonds, we'd basically be the same.

Thank you for posting your results. It is interesting and helpful to see other's real life returns.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)
Replies: 10
Views: 2112

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)

While I am not a fan of the "Hot Hands" approach to fund picking, the 2019 "Hot Hands" fund, the U. S. Growth fund, performed very well with a 33.41% return. It was the third highest returning Vanguard fund for the year. I have sorted the Vanguard funds by their 2019 returns and selected "my" Hot Hands for the 2020. It's a similar style to the 2019 fund, so we'll see if this style persists as a winner in 2020. The 10 year return for this strategy was about 10%, underperforming the S&P 500 by over 3% annually. The highest performing "portfolio" in the past 3, 5, and 10 years has been the plain old Vanguard S&P 500 fund. The "tens" decade 2010-2019 was a strong decade for US stock fund...
by madsinger
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)
Replies: 10
Views: 2112

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)

2019 was a well above average year for the portfolio returns. Virtually all asset classes represented in these portfolios returning above their long term averages. Stock heavy portfolios all returning in the 20% to 30% range. Even "conservative" portfolios with 50% or less stock returned in the upper teens. The "Permanent Portfolio" with only 25% stock (and 25% cash/short bonds) returned over 16% for the year. A few comments on the "PP" part of my portfolio. This portfolio of four asset classes with low correlation has been doing just what it should. Only one down month for the year ( -1% in September ) and due to the double digit returns of three of the asset classes, higher than expected returns for the year....
by madsinger
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2019)
Replies: 10
Views: 2112

madsinger monthly report (December 2019)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% ...
by madsinger
Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madginger monthly report (November 2019)
Replies: 1
Views: 621

Re: madginger monthly report (November 2019)

I did not realize that I did not post my November report last month. So, this report is one month "late". The December report will be coming out soon! Way back in November, stocks did well, bonds were flat, and gold dropped, making the Permanent Portfolio return pretty flat. As has been pretty much the case all year, "more stock" meant "higher returns" for the portfolios. STOCK LONG BOND CASH / SB GOLD PORTFOLIO January 7.97% 0.42% 0.13% 2.85% 2.71% February 3.21% -1.21% 0.16% -0.47% 0.40% March 1.91% 5.44% 0.14% -1.59% 1.40% April 4.02% -1.89% 0.14% -0.73% 0.37% May -6.36% 6.66% 0.18% 1.79% 0.56% June 7.00% 1.02% 0.14% 8.15% 4.01% July 1.40% 0.29% 0.15% 0.15% 0.49% August -1.42% 11.30% 1.06% 7.69% 4.55% Septem...
by madsinger
Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madginger monthly report (November 2019)
Replies: 1
Views: 621

madginger monthly report (November 2019)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFI...
by madsinger
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2019)
Replies: 5
Views: 1245

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2019)

jimmieg wrote: Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:16 pm Madsinger,

Will you be publishing more of your monthlies going forward, or have circumstances of time caught up?

They are very informative!
d'oh! Thank you, jimmieg, for pointing this out! I did not realize that I did not post the November report! (I collected all of the data, but didn't follow through with the post). I'll get that out next, and I do plan to keep posting these!

Thanks for noticing and letting me know!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2019)
Replies: 5
Views: 1245

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2019)

October was a pretty comfortable month for the markets. US stocks up about 2%, International stocks up 3-4%, over bonds up slightly, although Long Bonds were down about -1%. For the permanent portfolio, US stocks and gold up over +2%, long bonds down -1%, and "short bond" (my cash substitute) up about 0.5%. November has started well for stocks, and not so well for gold and bonds. We'll see how it all turns out! -Brad. STOCK LONG BOND CASH/SB GOLD PORTFOLIO January 7.97% 0.42% 0.13% 2.85% 2.71% February 3.21% -1.21% 0.16% -0.47% 0.40% March 1.91% 5.44% 0.14% -1.59% 1.40% April 4.02% -1.89% 0.14% -0.73% 0.37% May -6.36% 6.66% 0.18% 1.79% 0.56% June 7.00% 1.02% 0.14% 8.15% 4.01% July 1.40% 0.29% 0.15% 0.15% 0.49% August -1.42% 11.30%...
by madsinger
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2019)
Replies: 5
Views: 1245

madsinger monthly report (October 2019)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIA...
by madsinger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2019)
Replies: 1
Views: 379

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2019)

Asset returns went in the opposite direction in September from August. Stocks were up, internationals over +2.5%, US growth stocks up 1-2%, US value stocks up 3-4%. Bonds went back a bit after August's strong gains. The permanent portfolio had its first "down" month of the year, due to rather large drops in long bonds and gold, but that is after their outsized positive returns in August. All in all, a somewhat calmer month in September than August. I think this indicates that October should be a very boring month. (OR NOT!) -Brad. STOCK LONG BOND CASH/SB GOLD PORTFOLIO January 7.97% 0.42% 0.13% 2.85% 2.71% February 3.21% -1.21% 0.16% -0.47% 0.40% March 1.91% 5.44% 0.14% -1.59% 1.40% April 4.02% -1.89% 0.14% -0.73% 0.37% May -6.36%...
by madsinger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2019)
Replies: 1
Views: 379

madsinger monthly report (September 2019)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX,...
by madsinger
Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1560

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Thanks to a private message, and that the Advisor website finally updated their numbers, the August charts are now complete.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1560

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

I should say that because of the big run up in long bonds, I rebalanced in the middle of the month (sold bonds, bought stock), so my bond return 11.30% (internal rate of return) is higher than the posted mutual fund return 10.68% for the month. The act of rebalancing is pretty much a "buy low/sell high" activity. Also, my "S&P 500" return for the month was -1.42%, compared with the -1.58% for the mutual fund. The "buy" in August 15 was a relative low point.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1560

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Late report this month because Vanguard did not update their "cumulative return" through August until this weekend. August had very wide spread in asset class returns --- possibly the highest in all of my time keeping records. By the end of the month, US Large was only down about -1.5%, but small caps were down -4% to -5%. Internationals were down -2% to -4%. Total Bond market as up +2.8% (a huge jump for bonds). As for the permanent portfolio...the US Long Bonds were up over +11%, just for the month! Gold was up +7.7%. So, the PP was up almost +4.5% for the month, and now over +15% for the YTD. Also, I caught a lucky break on the month I switched from "cash" to "short bonds" in my PP. Just for the month, short...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1560

madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1614

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Someone has sent me the Newsletter return information for July. Thanks! I have updated the chart.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1614

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

newstreetnj wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:24 pm What happened to the data on the "newsletter" funds?
As bilperk surmised, I do not have the data from the newsletter. I get it right from the newsletter's website, but they have not updated the results for July. If anyone has the "YTD returns" for the four portfolios, if you PM me the numbers, I will post them in the chart.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1614

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

August has been quite the opposite of July in terms of volatility. As of today, Long Bonds and Gold are both ahead (by a tiny amount) of the S&P 500 returns. For those who have any interest in my madsinger Permanent Portfolio, as of August 1, I'm going to be using "short bonds" instead of "cash". My company's 401-k plan changed the Stable Value fund they were using, and I no longer feel comfortable holding that fund. So, there is no "cash" in my portfolio anymore, and the 1/3 allocation of bonds in my total portfolio is now "US Long Treasury", "Intermediate corporate" and "short corporate", and the short corporate has replaced the "cash'" (stable value fund) in my PP.
by madsinger
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1614

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Late report for July. The past couple of weeks have been busy here. The lack of volatility in July is such a distant memory! US stocks were positive with gains in the range of +0.5% to +1.5%. Internationals fell with losses around -2%. Bonds were slightly positive. The permanent portfolio had gains of +1.6% in US Large, and the other components with slightly positive. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January 7.97% 0.42% 0.13% 2.85% 2.71% February 3.21% -1.21% 0.16% -0.47% 0.40% March 1.91% 5.44% 0.14% -1.59% 1.40% April 4.02% -1.89% 0.14% -0.73% 0.37% May -6.36% 6.66% 0.18% 1.79% 0.56% June 7.00% 1.02% 0.14% 8.15% 4.01% July 1.40% 0.29% 0.15% 0.15% 0.49% YTD 20.15% 10.93% 1.04% 10.27% 10.33%
by madsinger
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)
Replies: 6
Views: 1614

madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% ...
by madsinger
Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2019)
Replies: 1
Views: 745

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2019)

June is busting out all over! US stocks up about +7%, international stocks up +5% to +6%, Bonds up about +1%, Gold up almost +8%. For the first six months of the year, US stocks up +15% to +19%, international stocks up +10% to +15%, long bonds up over +10%, gold up about +10%. It's hard to find any of the major asset classes doing poorly now. Just make sure your portfolio is set up well for you if things start heading down! Permanent portfolio up almost 10% for a half year, which is kinda crazy for this portfolio. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January 7.97% 0.42% 0.13% 2.85% 2.71% February 3.21% -1.21% 0.16% -0.47% 0.40% March 1.91% 5.44% 0.14% -1.59% 1.40% April 4.02% -1.89% 0.14% -0.73% 0.37% May -6.36% 6.66% 0.18% 1.79% 0.56% June ...
by madsinger
Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2019)
Replies: 1
Views: 745

madsinger monthly report (June 2019)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% ...
by madsinger
Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2019)
Replies: 2
Views: 875

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2019)

In May, everything changed directions (at least for one month). US stocks down -6% to -8%. Internationals -5% to -6%. Total Bond market up about 2%, but long term US bonds up over 6.5%. Gold went up at the end of the month (and even more on the first day of June). REITs were flat for the month, and still up over +17% for the year. Portfolio returns for the month were in line with the stock/bond allocation (when is it not?), with stock heavy portfolios down -4% to -6%, and portfolios with more bonds, not as much. The permanent portfolio was up for the month --- the drop associated with its 25% allocation to stocks, was more than offset by the bonds, and gold and cash contributed positively. As a result, the non-correlated assets produced the...