Search found 608 matches

by Prudence
Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting our House
Replies: 12
Views: 973

Re: Renting our House

Thank you for your very helpful responses. After considering the feedback, we will sell the house and, if we quit the CCRC, we will probably go to an apartment or condo instead of a house.
by Prudence
Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting our House
Replies: 12
Views: 973

Renting our House

Previously I posted that DW and I were considering moving to a continuing care retirement community. We did make the move on March 4th. We paid a substantial entrance fee that is 90% refundable at the time we exit the community and the apartment is occupied by new residents. Also, we pay a substanti...
by Prudence
Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP: Social Security, Inflation, and TIPS vs Nominals
Replies: 56
Views: 3561

Re: LMP: Social Security, Inflation, and TIPS vs Nominals

Ergo, an LMP based around TIPS (which use CPI) must be augmented by something to keep up with these costs, whether from additional returns from the RP or another mechanism. Not in all cases. "IF" the real rates on my 10 year TIPS return to +1.0%, than my TIPS portfolio as a whole will out...
by Prudence
Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP: Social Security, Inflation, and TIPS vs Nominals
Replies: 56
Views: 3561

Re: LMP: Social Security, Inflation, and TIPS vs Nominals

Ergo, an LMP based around TIPS (which use CPI) must be augmented by something to keep up with these costs, whether from additional returns from the RP or another mechanism. Not in all cases. "IF" the real rates on my 10 year TIPS return to +1.0%, than my TIPS portfolio as a whole will out...
by Prudence
Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary
Replies: 124
Views: 10147

Re: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary

It's a bubble. Barry Ritholtz's Masters in Business podcast interview of Bill Gurley was very interesting and made a very salient point about the strong effect of zero interest rates on corporate behavior, Wall Street and stock valuations. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL2ZlZWRzLmJsb29tYmV...
by Prudence
Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Upcoming 10 and 5 year Tips Auction
Replies: 7
Views: 951

Re: Upcoming 10 and 5 year Tips Auction

Disregarding market variables like changes in interest rates, inflation, negative economic data and forecasts etc. (which are impossible to predict with any accuracy), is there a reason to favor purchases at initial issue over re-openings?
by Prudence
Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yikes! Why did TIPS funds plummet?
Replies: 22
Views: 3293

Re: Yikes! Why did TIPS funds plummet?

Seasonal wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 9:30 am
Prudence wrote: Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:29 am
FIREchief wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:54 pm It’s the yield curve. Rates are going up. That’s great news for a guy with a ten year TIPS ladder LMP. 8-)
Why is it great news?
Higher rates mean higher future returns.
Sorry but I still don't understand. If he holds his TIPS to maturity, what would be the impact of rising rates?
by Prudence
Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yikes! Why did TIPS funds plummet?
Replies: 22
Views: 3293

Re: Yikes! Why did TIPS funds plummet?

FIREchief wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:54 pm It’s the yield curve. Rates are going up. That’s great news for a guy with a ten year TIPS ladder LMP. 8-)
Why is it great news?
by Prudence
Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury Mattress vs Firm w/Topper
Replies: 53
Views: 3493

Re: Luxury Mattress vs Firm w/Topper

We are not too picky about a mattress. I bought a new mattress last week. It is an Amazon Basics medium hybrid for less than $600.00. I also bought a foundation. It is very good for the price.
by Prudence
Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?
Replies: 51
Views: 3633

Re: Should umbrella insurance amount be based on assets?

So, if one has a $5 million umbrella policy, $2 million unprotected assets and $3 million in protected assets, and causes $10 million in damages, the plaintiff will get a maximum of $2 million from the unprotected assets and $5 million from the insurance company (total = $7 million). Is that correct?
by Prudence
Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When interest rates rise what happens with a TIPS bond at maturity
Replies: 21
Views: 1781

Re: When interest rates rise what happens with a TIPS bond at maturity

Suppose I buy a $1,000, 10 year Tip at the March re-auction. Over 10 years the inflation was zero percent or deflation and I held to duration. After 10 years I get $1,000 back? you do if you bought at par at auction. but if you paid a premium to par you don't get your money back in full in this sce...
by Prudence
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safety of TBM funds?
Replies: 62
Views: 6008

Re: Safety of TBM funds?

I am in the camp that discounts the relevance of historical bond returns because interest rates have been in a long term decline over decades. What if interest rates would gradually increase over the next 10 or 15 years? I would think investors would receive either negative or flat results. I like ...
by Prudence
Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safety of TBM funds?
Replies: 62
Views: 6008

Re: Safety of TBM funds?

here's some historical numbers for context showing inflation, bond, US equity and EAFE returns. complements of Taylor. https://i.postimg.cc/sxsg7tKS/inflation-and-bonds-and-stocks.jpg I am in the camp that discounts the relevance of historical bond returns because interest rates have been in a long...
by Prudence
Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction
Replies: 22
Views: 2247

Re: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction

I looked into the I bonds and ran into a little snag. I can purchase $10,000 this year, and that is fine. Yesterday, I filed my federal tax return electronically using H&R Block, asking that my total refund amount be deposited into my bank account. (I also mailed my state return yesterday). Toda...
by Prudence
Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction
Replies: 22
Views: 2247

Re: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction

I may build a rolling TIPS ladder in my tIRA, starting with the March 5 year note. Do you always enter noncompetitive bids? Yes. I'm not sure that retail investors are even able to make competitive bids. We do know that all noncompetitive bids will be filled at whatever level the auction determines...
by Prudence
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction
Replies: 22
Views: 2247

Re: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction

The auction today resulted in a real yield of -0.987%. That's slightly better than I was expecting and nice to be above that psychological (but meaningless) level of minus one percent. This gives me twelve new months to root for the fed to raise rates. 8-) The breakeven inflation rate seems to be h...
by Prudence
Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction
Replies: 22
Views: 2247

Re: January 2021 ten year TIPS auction

The auction today resulted in a real yield of -0.987%. That's slightly better than I was expecting and nice to be above that psychological (but meaningless) level of minus one percent. This gives me twelve new months to root for the fed to raise rates. 8-) The breakeven inflation rate seems to be h...
by Prudence
Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Benefit Estimate
Replies: 3
Views: 461

Re: Social Security Benefit Estimate

Yes Joe, we keyed in her payment history to the SSA online detailed calculator and her benefit increases about 11 bucks a month compared to what she is receiving currently.
by Prudence
Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Benefit Estimate
Replies: 3
Views: 461

Social Security Benefit Estimate

My DW turns 70 in July. This post is to confirm my general understanding of what we can expect from SSA. I delayed receiving my SS benefit until I reached age 70 in 2016. DW started receiving a spousal benefit (50% of mine) when she reached Full Retirement Age (FRA) in 2017. When DW applies to SSA f...
by Prudence
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recovery rebate credit
Replies: 6
Views: 499

Re: Recovery rebate credit

BTW, we file jointly using the H&R Block program. We received a stimulus check for $1,487 in April. According to the program, we are owed a recovery rebate credit of $2,113 (difference between $3,600 and $1,487) on our federal return. Sweet!
by Prudence
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should everyone have TIPS?
Replies: 134
Views: 12146

Re: Should everyone have TIPS?

I love the idea of TIPS bonds and they are the only long-duration bonds I’ve been willing to hold. I backed up the truck during the 2008 crisis and filled my 401k with them. I bought and continued to buy individual bonds. The problem now is that I’d have to buy them at explicit negative real yields...
by Prudence
Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 185
Views: 17032

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

I vote for using I Bonds for the "Poor Man's Liability Matching Portfolio" (PMLMP) which adds a real $10 k per year to social security. At retirement, you'd want to have 30 year's worth. I am 74 and retired. Would it make sense for me to start buying I Bonds now annually as part of the bo...
by Prudence
Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do TIPS funds behave vs Bond Funds
Replies: 23
Views: 1742

Re: How do TIPS funds behave vs Bond Funds

Yes, thanks dbr, your explanation helps a lot!
by Prudence
Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do TIPS funds behave vs Bond Funds
Replies: 23
Views: 1742

Re: How do TIPS funds behave vs Bond Funds

but I am not sure how much to put in each nor how TIPS funds behave. thanks.. That depends on how important it is to you to avoid inflation risk. It would seem to me that logically either one should want all TIPS or no TIPS. I think I should have all TIPS but I am not willing on principle to put th...
by Prudence
Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your favorite non fiction book?
Replies: 142
Views: 8497

Re: What is your favorite non fiction book?

Liberation Trilogy by Rick Atkinson, especially book I.
by Prudence
Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you keep the original of your will?
Replies: 69
Views: 5180

Re: Where do you keep the original of your will?

I live in Maryland. After reading all these posts, it seems to me that the best approach is to file the original with the Register of Wills. I assume that if I later sign another original but fail to replace the original with the Register of Wills, the more recent original would not be valid. Correc...
by Prudence
Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 786

Re: Taxable Funds

I was looking at Wellington today on Vanguard's website. Is there a way to generate a performance chart from inception date to the present? Even better would be a table of return % for each year from inception to now.
by Prudence
Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising inflation will hurt stocks and bonds
Replies: 53
Views: 4119

Re: Rising inflation will hurt stocks and bonds

If I were concerned about significant unexpected inflation, that might have occurred in the 70s for example, and I was close to retirement, I would put enough of my portfolio in TIPS bonds (not a fund), say 30% or more allocation depending on age, to insure safety. Full disclosure: I am a fan of Bil...
by Prudence
Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee Refund
Replies: 5
Views: 449

Re: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee Refund

I think it is recommended that any medical expense deduction be applied only to the refundable portion of the entrance fee. That should also help reduce any tax implications when the refund is actually received by the heirs.
by Prudence
Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee Refund
Replies: 5
Views: 449

Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee Refund

This is a question for anyone who has experience with an entrance fee refund that was triggered after you or a loved one exited a CCRC. I am looking at a refund which would be significant, several hundred grand. I assume the refund would not be taxable by the federal or state. Do you now how the CCR...
by Prudence
Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs Valuation
Replies: 4
Views: 515

Re: TIPs Valuation

I bought a new issue 5 year TIPS in April 2018 with a 0.5% coupon. The 5-year TIPS issued in April 2018 has a 0.625% coupon. The one with a 0.5% coupon wasn't issued until April 2019 . Does the current valuation also include an increase in the principal due to inflation? If so, I don't see that adj...
by Prudence
Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs Valuation
Replies: 4
Views: 515

TIPs Valuation

I bought a new issue 5 year TIPS in April 2019 with a 0.5% coupon. On my recent VG statement, the value has increased 11.37% since I bought it. I assume part of the increase is due to falling interest rates since I bought it. Does the current valuation also include an increase in the principal due t...
by Prudence
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on Filing for Social Security at Age 70
Replies: 44
Views: 4256

Re: Advice on Filing for Social Security at Age 70

I delayed my SS benefit until age 70 (in 2016). I worked full time up to that time and received a lump sum buyout from my employer. The SSA looked at my recent tax returns and determined that I was subject to an IRMAA adjustment (surcharge). It caught me by surprise. I got them to stop it after the ...
by Prudence
Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping Tax Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 2046

Re: Keeping Tax Returns

Regarding the scanner, do you have to feed two sided paper through two times for front and back? If you want to be able to scan double-sided documents without having to turn them over manually, look for a scanner with an automatic document feeder (ADF) AND duplex scanning. These will do the "f...
by Prudence
Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping Tax Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 2046

Re: Keeping Tax Returns

Regarding the scanner, do you have to feed two sided paper through two times for front and back? If you want to be able to scan double-sided documents without having to turn them over manually, look for a scanner with an automatic document feeder (ADF) AND duplex scanning. These will do the "f...
by Prudence
Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping Tax Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 2046

Re: Keeping Tax Returns

Regarding the scanner, do you have to feed two sided paper through two times for front and back?
by Prudence
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping Tax Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 2046

Keeping Tax Returns

From 1974 to 2019, I have copies of all our federal and state tax returns and all the supporting schedules, 1099s, relevant bank statements, documentation for claimed deductions etc. Per IRS instructions, at most, I need files for only the most recent seven years. We bought a house in 1976, and sold...
by Prudence
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Firecalc Projection
Replies: 13
Views: 1360

Re: Firecalc Projection

Probably in today's dollars, more or less. That's how I read this part of the explanation on the results page: "values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle". Although that would seem to imply that it's using the historical inflation rates...
by Prudence
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Firecalc Projection
Replies: 13
Views: 1360

Re: Firecalc Projection

Probably in today's dollars, more or less. That's how I read this part of the explanation on the results page: "values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle". Although that would seem to imply that it's using the historical inflation rates...
by Prudence
Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Firecalc Projection
Replies: 13
Views: 1360

Re: Firecalc Projection

Thank you.
by Prudence
Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Firecalc Projection
Replies: 13
Views: 1360

Firecalc Projection

Suppose that Firecalc calculates that at the end of 17 years (2038), the average value of my portfolio will be $4 million (assuming 3% annual inflation etc. etc.). Is that in today's (2021) dollars or 2038 dollars?
by Prudence
Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you use for inflation? [for retirement planning]
Replies: 54
Views: 4169

Re: What do you use for inflation?

In the past I just used real returns for everything. It's just as easy to say "I expect the real return of the stock market to be about the same as its historical average of 7%" as to say "I expect the stock market to return 10% and inflation to be 3%," and it's at least as robu...
by Prudence
Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reasonable alternative to equities?
Replies: 15
Views: 1048

Re: Reasonable alternative to equities?

I agree with illumination. In your bond allocation, you can keep 3 year's spending, if any is planned, in short term Treasuries, and the rest in intermediate term Treasuries or Total Bond Index, and rebalance once a year. Such a portfolio should do well over the long term.
by Prudence
Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee
Replies: 112
Views: 9015

Re: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee

Present value aside, I would be more concerned about the CCRC’s ability to refund the fee when the time comes. Review the contract closely to determine if the fee could be wiped out/reduced in a bankruptcy. Agree. Refundable entrance fees are refunded only when the unit is re-occupied by a new resi...
by Prudence
Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee
Replies: 112
Views: 9015

Re: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee

CCRCs are Ponzi schemes. New entry fees go to support existing residents. There is seldom any leeway if occupancy levels fall because of something like this virus. We are on list for well respected ccrc but even before the pandemic its largest asset was goodwill which has no $$value. So you are at ...
by Prudence
Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee
Replies: 112
Views: 9015

Re: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee

CCRCs are Ponzi schemes. New entry fees go to support existing residents. There is seldom any leeway if occupancy levels fall because of something like this virus. We are on list for well respected ccrc but even before the pandemic its largest asset was goodwill which has no $$value. So you are at ...
by Prudence
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee
Replies: 112
Views: 9015

Re: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee

I, too, have been looking into CCC's, and all of them have definite increases in monthly payments depending upon the level of care. For example, a non-refundable buy-in of $250,000 would get us a lovely 2-bedroom independent living apartment for $5,100 per month. If one of us needs assisted living,...
by Prudence
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee
Replies: 112
Views: 9015

Re: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee

We have a large CCRC about 30 miles from us. We currently live in a 55+ community, and we were impressed 4 or 5 years ago when the CEO of the CCRC came to visit us and made a presentation. A few years later some of his staff members came and did another presentation. The focused mainly on $$$ and r...
by Prudence
Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee
Replies: 112
Views: 9015

Re: Continuing Care Retirement Community Entrance Fee

Yes, I agree and we will try to make the in-home care work if not an unreasonable burden to family. Prudence - a perspective. For my Dad just last year, I looked at 24hr home care vs Assisted Living. Home care would have run 18-19K per month. A Calif MCOL area. As my Mom declined before she passed ...