Search found 75 matches

by stipeman
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 9343
Views: 653482

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Let us know if you're seeing delays on funding. Seems like some anecdotes in the thread indicate another few weeks from close to funding, which can be frustrating. Yes they are delaying funding still. My loan funded today 22 days after signing. I asked many many times and all they would say is &quo...
by stipeman
Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 9343
Views: 653482

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I know it only applies to CA residents, but I am closing on a refi with Interactive Mortgage this Saturday. Was able to get a 30 year 2.375%, completely no cost and only had to pay prepaid interest. Total loan amount of $354,000.00. Let us know if you're seeing delays on funding. Seems like some an...
by stipeman
Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 9343
Views: 653482

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I know it only applies to CA residents, but I am closing on a refi with Interactive Mortgage this Saturday. Was able to get a 30 year 2.375%, completely no cost and only had to pay prepaid interest. Total loan amount of $354,000.00. Let us know if you're seeing delays on funding. Seems like some an...
by stipeman
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323848

Re: Coronavirus and the market

For CFR, the Diamond Princess seems to be an ideal sample because EVERYONE on the ship was tested. Demographics are a bit older than the general population but I think that can be adjusted for. So far 7 people (1%) have died. 36 more are in serious or critical condition. In about a month we should ...
by stipeman
Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: selling box spread in anticipation of a bonus
Replies: 24
Views: 1635

Re: selling box spread in anticipation of a bonus

Follow-on question:
With a margin loan the IRS does not allow you to buy muni bonds.
How about with the proceeds from a box spread?
by stipeman
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323848

Re: Coronavirus and the market

To quote one of the most respected experts: "I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can't give a good number" Prof. Marc Lipsitch Prof. of E...
by stipeman
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323848

Re: Coronavirus and the market

To quote one of the most respected experts: "I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can't give a good number" Prof. Marc Lipsitch Prof. of Ep...
by stipeman
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323848

Re: Coronavirus and the market

For CFR, the Diamond Princess seems to be an ideal sample because EVERYONE on the ship was tested. Demographics are a bit older than the general population but I think that can be adjusted for. So far 7 people (1%) have died. 36 more are in serious or critical condition. In about a month we should k...
by stipeman
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Minimum for PSLDX in IRA is $0 at TD Ameritrade and Etrade. $25K at Vanguard. $100K at Schwab. Increased from $100K to $1M at Fidelity last year.

Fidelity is not being honest if they say it is PIMCO's fault.
by stipeman
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)
Replies: 41
Views: 5861

Re: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)

If you open the application is says you need to be a current shareholder in POAGX.
by stipeman
Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)
Replies: 41
Views: 5861

Re: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)

I did this a couple of years ago. But people should be aware than TN no longer subsidizes the ER. They made the change a few months ago. You now pay more than a retail investor (assuming you got in before it closed). I recently changed my 529 from 100% POAGX to 50/50 with DSEEX (another good fund in...
by stipeman
Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It is worth noting that my midcap allocation is only 34% so its contribution to my overall volatility is not as awful as if I was doing the larger equity allocations on this thread. How long have you been in this portfolio? A couple of years now in this exact setup. Although longer in other similar...
by stipeman
Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

You are calculating drag using -200 CASHX, is that not making the drag inclusive of borrowing costs? For drag I'm assuming the borrowing rate is equal to treasury + the expense of the underlying index funds. For example the expense of VOO + IEF is 0.2%. Historically LIBOR has been treasury + 10-20b...
by stipeman
Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Rerun your %s using nominal figures and you end up with 1.6x the S&P CAGR, within my range. 1.5 * 10% + 1.5 * 3% - 3.5% = 16% It’s important to remember that higher nominal percentages compound faster than inflation rates- the delta between the two is an important driver of real return. I would...
by stipeman
Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Thinking more about it, the rebalancing bonus should be 3 x 0.5% = 1.5% because this is a 3x leveraged portfolio and 0.5% has been the bonus over the last 50 years for a 50/50 SP/LTT portfolio. So one more time. Optimistic case: Borrowing rate = 1.5% S&P = 10% LTT = 2.5% Total return = 1.5% + 1....
by stipeman
Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What do you expect the yield of 20 year bonds to be in just under 20 years, when you hope to cash out your $10M? Unless your answer is well below 0% I don’t understand how you expect 2x S&P500 CAGR. Assume: Inflation=2% SP=8% real (optimistic) LTT=1% real (optimistic) Expected return = 2% + 1.5...
by stipeman
Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Apologies for the basic question- I've used my tiny brain and scoured both threads. Assuming that the S&P 500 produces an expected, future, long-term, average, nominal CAGR of approximately 10%: What similar long-term, forward-looking average value might you use for a Buy and Hold Portfolio con...
by stipeman
Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Last one was a typo: PSLDX (-0.7% drag) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjuste...
by stipeman
Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Apologies for the basic question- I've used my tiny brain and scoured both threads. Assuming that the S&P 500 produces an expected, future, long-term, average, nominal CAGR of approximately 10%: What similar long-term, forward-looking average value might you use for a Buy and Hold Portfolio con...
by stipeman
Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerages for Futures Trading in IRA?
Replies: 32
Views: 3312

Re: Brokerages for Futures Trading in IRA?

I recently looked into Tradestation. For many people they should be the lowest cost option for an IRA with futures (i.e. risk-parity type strategy). Pros: 100% margin in IRA (same as non-IRA) Can post t-bills as collateral so no cash slip (big deal, especially if interest rates ever go up) Lots of f...
by stipeman
Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options
Replies: 121
Views: 31848

Re: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options

I can confirm that money market sweep (PTTXX etc.) is no longer available to new PCS accounts. I was told by my local rep that I would get it when I started moving money over in July but unknown to him they had already discontinued it in June. I got nice transfer bonuses but talk about bait and swit...
by stipeman
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Everyone seems to be focused on the optimal UPRO / TMF split, but I don't see as much discussion on the optimal % of one's portfolio to commit to this strategy, unless I missed it in MoneyMarathon's really good explanation of the Kelly Criterion. I've seen two disclaimers. One pertaining to the ons...
by stipeman
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7248
Views: 708705

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Everyone seems to be focused on the optimal UPRO / TMF split, but I don't see as much discussion on the optimal % of one's portfolio to commit to this strategy, unless I missed it in MoneyMarathon's really good explanation of the Kelly Criterion. I've seen two disclaimers. One pertaining to the ons...
by stipeman
Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

That makes a lot of sense. Mega back-door Roth can help create a lot of IRA space if you/spouse have the right kind of 401k. But I guess that's another thread ...
by stipeman
Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

It's a shame PIMCO chose the obviously inferior small cap index, I guess they are a bond shop after all. Agreed....but don't think they have an option.... believe you can only buy futures on the Russell. So blame CME for not giving us a better product :D Just found it odd that the bonds bosted retu...
by stipeman
Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I was comparing it to the Russell...since that's what it tracks. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2011&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustm...
by stipeman
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Has anyone looked at the Small Cap Stocks Plus fund (PSCSX). It's crushed the straight Russell index....why would their bond strategy do so much better than the SP500 index funds, like the original Stocks Plus? PSCSX's outperformance was all in the early years. Since mid-2010 it has basically match...
by stipeman
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hydromod,

Yes but the SP500 returned 13%/yr from Jan 2012 to now and you are seriously leveraging up the S&P. I think a better expectation would be around 5%.
by stipeman
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hi Hedgefundie, Your comparison basically assumes that interest rates will continue to drop over the next 12 years. When comparing different implementations of the same basic strategy you need to make sure the equity and interest rate exposures are in a similar ratio. For example you can look at th...
by stipeman
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hi Hedgefundie, Your comparison basically assumes that interest rates will continue to drop over the next 12 years. When comparing different implementations of the same basic strategy you need to make sure the equity and interest rate exposures are in a similar ratio. For example you can look at the...
by stipeman
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Hi Hedgefundie, If 12 years ago you had placed a bet that long term rates would drop over the next 12 years, you would have won your bet. There is no additional information content in your statement above. Looking at this thread there are many instances of irrational thinking: 1) mental accounting 2...
by stipeman
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

The institutional PIMCO "Plus" funds are available to anyone with a Vanguard Brokerage account for $25k minimum. I've held them in my Roth for the last 10 years with good results. In my opinion they have expected Sharp ratios higher than the strategy advocated in this thread, primarily due...
by stipeman
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

This strategy was interesting enough to analyze. But having done that it reminds of that old SNL movie review skit.

Interested ....... Interested ........ And then, quite suddenly, I lost interest.
by stipeman
Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If you want to understand the effect of daily leverage reset (for example TMF) vs. the effective quarterly reset in the synthetic backtest of Hedgefundie, take a look this article: https://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/avellane/LETFRISKPROF.pdf The second major problem with this thread is the assumption ...
by stipeman
Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

There is something subtle happening here that is important to understand. The leveraged ETFs reset leverage daily. The synthetic (and fictional) leveraged vanguard portfolios reset period is chosen by you when you choose monthly, quarterly, or yearly rebalance. That means the relationship between th...
by stipeman
Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Here are two estimates of expected returns: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=02%2F21%2F2019&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAd...
by stipeman
Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 484734

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

This is a very interesting thread (which I have to admit I haven't read all the way through). But I think the recent posts by pezblanco are moving in a more sober and rigorous direction. I think you can come to similar conclusions in a very different way. It's important to know the difference in usi...
by stipeman
Sat Nov 15, 2008 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529s and gift tax
Replies: 28
Views: 5699

So if I write a check for 12k and sometime later in the year my wife signs a check for 12k, do we still need to file 709? Does the answer change if the checks come from a joint checking account?
by stipeman
Wed Oct 01, 2008 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard bond muni funds just keep going down, HELP!
Replies: 26
Views: 9949

Re: Vanguard bond muni funds just keep going down, HELP!

I own 3 Vanguard bond muni funds with six figures in each one. VMLUX VWLUX VWIUX All three of these funds have dropped every single day except one day since Sept 11. I have read up up the credit crunch, money moving out of these funds to Treasuries etc... Yes, the yields are going up slightly but n...
by stipeman
Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard bond muni funds just keep going down, HELP!
Replies: 26
Views: 9949

Re: Vanguard bond muni funds just keep going down, HELP!

I own 3 Vanguard bond muni funds with six figures in each one. VMLUX VWLUX VWIUX All three of these funds have dropped every single day except one day since Sept 11. I have read up up the credit crunch, money moving out of these funds to Treasuries etc... Yes, the yields are going up slightly but n...
by stipeman
Tue Jun 10, 2008 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Personal Choice Retirement Account - Any Experience?
Replies: 15
Views: 7720

PCRA is definitely the best choice in my JPMorgan 401k. At JPMorgan they like to offer expensive asset allocation funds. I let money build in the only index fund choice within the plan and then move it once or twice a year to PCRA at Schwab. ETFs are a great choice within the PCRA - only $12.95. ETF...
by stipeman
Thu May 29, 2008 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single-Premium Immediate Annuities (SPIAs) as an Asset Class
Replies: 70
Views: 11340

A fixed immediate annuity does have default risk - if the insurance company goes belly up, you are only protected up to a certain amount depending on your state (typically $100k). A variable immediate annuity has reduced default risk because the assets are real and held by a separate entity (not ass...
by stipeman
Sun Apr 20, 2008 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fundamental Index: A Better Way to Invest new book
Replies: 159
Views: 30395

This might be the simplest proof that the marketing pitch for fundamental indexing is bunk: Say you have a large cap fundamental index that includes some "mid caps". These mid caps, according to Arnott, would be "undervalued". Now say you have a smaller cap fundamental index that...
by stipeman
Tue Apr 08, 2008 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax 401(k) - no 8606 needed?
Replies: 9
Views: 2126

Many companies will let you rollover after-tax 401(k) money into an IRA without leaving the company, retiring, or being over 59.5 yrs old. This makes a great way to put a lot of money away until 2010 when the income restrictions are removed for the Roth (unless the law changes by then). You can save...
by stipeman
Tue Apr 08, 2008 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax 401(k) - no 8606 needed?
Replies: 9
Views: 2126

OK thank-you.

I'll worry about it in 2010.
by stipeman
Tue Apr 08, 2008 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax 401(k) - no 8606 needed?
Replies: 9
Views: 2126

After-tax 401(k) - no 8606 needed?

Of coarse, for a non-deductible IRA you need to do the 8606 form but what about after-tax 401(k) contributions? Any record keeping or tax forms? Or do you report the basis to the IRS only later when you do a rollover?
by stipeman
Wed Dec 12, 2007 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Borrow against the house to invest in stocks?
Replies: 38
Views: 7810

Clearly the cost of borrowing will be higher than the riskless rate. This may not be true for all. For example if you live in California and pay AMT, your marginal tax rate can be as high as 45% (best way to check is to change your income by $1000 in tax software and see the result). I recently saw...
by stipeman
Fri Nov 30, 2007 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time in the Market: The Long-Horizon Risk of Stocks & Bo
Replies: 61
Views: 22997

Thanks very much James. I think I'll put this on my Christmas list.
by stipeman
Thu Nov 29, 2007 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time in the Market: The Long-Horizon Risk of Stocks & Bo
Replies: 61
Views: 22997

What we need is the following in a proof: 1) finite utility at zero wealth 2) log-normal returns for stocks and bonds with realistic expected returns and variances. 3) maximum utility with a mixture of stocks and bonds that does not change with investment horizon. I suspect this cannot be done. If i...
by stipeman
Thu Nov 29, 2007 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time in the Market: The Long-Horizon Risk of Stocks & Bo
Replies: 61
Views: 22997

Norstad's argument from Black Scholes omits the alternative analysis: while the cost of buying a put option on a basket of equity increases the farther you go into the future, so would the cost of buying a similar call option. After factoring in the upward bias of the markets, the price of the call...