Search found 514 matches

by steve r
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Minor regret with a 15-year mortgage
Replies: 26
Views: 3030

Re: Minor regret with a 15-year mortgage

My thought is "how old are your kids" as I see you have a 529 plan. If it is possible to have house paid for when kids start college, that would be a sweet place to be. There are two college fin aid forms, and one does not consider equity in home. If yes, you might consider that a safe way to go. Ba...
by steve r
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility fund this week
Replies: 54
Views: 3463

Re: Minimum volatility fund this week

My expectation of the fund is to reduce volatility by perhaps 10-20%, so -40% drawdown vs -50% in a bad bear market. It is a stock fund and will get hammered when equities are being hammered, just a little less so. I hope (but don't expect) higher risk-adjusted return than VOO. +1 ... but my expect...
by steve r
Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility fund this week
Replies: 54
Views: 3463

Re: Minimum volatility fund this week

Unless the fund is taking less than 80% as much risk, there is no advantage to a fund like this you could not get by adjusting your AA. So the question would seem to be whether the risk-adjusted return of this fund is superior. Fair point. But any strategy will have a one week period of under perfo...
by steve r
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility fund this week
Replies: 54
Views: 3463

Re: Minimum volatility fund this week

I have been in this fund since inception (and ACWV before that), so yeah I had some expectations on performance. I believe I once posted that it is like having 25 percent corporate bonds / equity portfolio. So by that measure, yeah, it under performed my personal expectations, but only by a little. ...
by steve r
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leave my beneficiary 100/75/50/25 or 0% of my pension?
Replies: 57
Views: 3571

Re: Leave my beneficiary 100/75/50/25 or 0% of my pension?

My two cents. Lets say you BOTH live to 80 32 years (wife) X $68,000 = $2,176,000 > $78,000 = 22 years (you) X $78,000 = $1,716,000 You can make more things more complex. What if you saved the $10,000 difference for 22 years and invested it. You would need a fairly decent return to generate an annui...
by steve r
Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Backtesting Relevant at All?
Replies: 45
Views: 2750

Re: Is Backtesting Relevant at All?

My 2c Backtesting for future predictions does not work for... Future expected returns Trading strategies Market timing Please add more... Backtesting for future predictions works usefully for... Macro correlations (e.g. equities vs bonds, gold vs cash) Relative volatility (e.g. equities more volati...
by steve r
Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA receipts
Replies: 6
Views: 656

HSA receipts

I just started an HSA last month. It makes sense for me to maximize contributions and use the account for retirement health expenses. As a backup for withdrawal purposes, I would like to keep receipts of current expenses. I am 52 and max out retirement savings (though I do not always do a backdoor R...
by steve r
Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic multifactor shifting from lowvol+quality to momentum+size+value
Replies: 6
Views: 901

Re: Dynamic multifactor shifting from lowvol+quality to momentum+size+value

As a low vol investor for many years now ... the reason for the change in the article is NOT a change in data but investors demanding higher return is the very reason why I believe the low vol strategy works ... people effectively wanting lottery tickets.
by steve r
Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA
Replies: 18
Views: 1678

Re: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA

Think about this for a moment. A) You pay 5K after-tax cash for your medical expense. B) You spend 5K from HSA and put that 5K cash plus tax savings into 401K. Which one saves you more taxes? If you know how to calculate, you can decide for yourself what makes sense for you. KlangFool My understand...
by steve r
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 61907

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

My biggest lesson from Jack (and this board) it how little effort it take to do things the right way ... after much learning and thinking and studying and doing things the wrong way. I am forever grateful. RIP
by steve r
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Wellesley
Replies: 9
Views: 2219

Re: Vanguard Global Wellesley

In addition to consider what percent of foreign equity, one must consider what percent foreign bond. The fund has over 25 percent foreign bonds that earn little. The main play here is more currency related (currency risk). In contrast, Wellesley is half that in foreign bonds. You must also consider ...
by steve r
Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Wellesley
Replies: 9
Views: 2219

Re: Vanguard Global Wellesley

I am in it ... Global Wellesley I had been watching (non-global) Wellesley for some time (years), with plan to move into it at a time when I needed to go small, conservative due to age. I was overdue, but earlier this year I got spooked and moved half my Roth money which was 100% equities. (VMNVX). ...
by steve r
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 191
Views: 24279

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

OkieIndexer wrote: Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:52 pm ... previous bubbles:

December 1999: "What is a nuzduck, or nazdick, or whatever it's called (Nasdaq)?"
January 2006: "What is house flipping?"
Now: "What is a bitcoin?"
+1
My two teenagers know what happened to the price this week, and it did not come from me.
by steve r
Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out
Replies: 94
Views: 9207

Re: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out

I regretted that I was 100% stock when I starting out. Very big mistake! KlangFool +1 100 percent equities looks good on paper and in theory, but ....... a lot can go wrong. For some it is tech stocks or employer stocks. For me, it was a complete inability to stay the course. I could have been a ca...
by steve r
Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luck with DirectTV Now?
Replies: 37
Views: 7050

Re: Luck with DirectTV Now?

I also have DTVN and it is horrible and it has now been almost a month. Need to decide soon if I am keeping. I only did one month with Fire Stick. The only reason I would keep is the lock price, but am not convinced the company promise is that solid. I mean, the same company that just released a cra...
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Quitting] Target Date fund
Replies: 18
Views: 3805

Re: [Quiting] Target Date fund

The thing you MAY be missing is human psychology. In theory, your plan may work but my personal attempts to do so did not work. I would constantly second guess, rework, reconfigure etc. It is hard for me to create a plan at one age and stick with it 3 years out let alone 30 years. I suspect my exper...
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 9474

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Why are low volatility stocks more subject to term risk? ... The easiest answer that that low volatility indexes load up very heavily on utility stocks. This actually raises another interesting question .... how will low vol do compared to min var. (which limits holdings in utilities) in an upward ...
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 9474

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

larryswedroe wrote:So what low vol predicts is low vol .....

Larry
+1
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 9474

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

STLUTZ (study on past decades)

I saw one (I think by Haugen) by decade.

I couldn't find it quickly.

This is interesting

http://www.robeco.com/images/low-volati ... ective.pdf

A bit simplistic in approach -- but I believe telling.
by steve r
Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 9474

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

I would definitely read the article posted by Larry above. Out of interest, I compared the returns of ACWI versus ACWV since the election. ACWI is up 3.2 percent ACWV is down 1.0 percent (I also looked at VMNVX which is up 2.4 percent) Two thoughts come to mind 1. Term risk just discussed. 2. The lo...
by steve r
Sat Nov 12, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience selling car to Carmax?
Replies: 110
Views: 240614

Re: Experience selling car to Carmax?

You will get about a dealer trade in value on KBB. You will have a week (maybe five days) to decide. If the car had been in an accident, it would (should) hurt the cars value. My second time I had my car ready to sell ... got it priced at CarMax, then listed it quickly for $1,200 more on AutoTrader....
by steve r
Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Least expensive iPhone
Replies: 65
Views: 8226

Re: Least expensive iPhone

5S on Consumer Cellular is $160 NEW with one year Apple warranty. That is the least expensive NEW iPhone.

https://www.consumercellular.com/cart/p ... ions/1/519
by steve r
Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?
Replies: 4
Views: 872

Re: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?

Thanks. For me, (I suspect but do not know) it was not so much TIAA as it was my employer dial back on some expenses.
by steve r
Mon Jul 11, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 403b FEE changes - do I have options?
Replies: 4
Views: 872

403b FEE changes - do I have options?

I HAD a great thing in my 403b ... Vanguard Index funds. So great that when my employer decided to reduce the number of plan sponsors (TIAA and FIDELITY) to just one I decided to move my Fidelity money to TIAA. Fast forward a bit, and TIAA/my employer have a new deal, I still have index funds but no...
by steve r
Mon May 16, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage
Replies: 123
Views: 35922

Re: 15 vs 30 yr mortgage

I am assuming 100,000 loan. 30 years at 3.25 percent, monthly payment is 435.21. After 15 years you owe $61,939 15 year mortgage at 2.75 percent your payments are $678.62 If the differences of $243.41 is saved EVERY MONTH, what rate would you need to earn to have $61,939 in 15 years? (Bankrate, savi...
by steve r
Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 3103

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

Hi Sam, Any thoughts on whether or not these four should be on the short-list for investigation for people interested in Minimum Volatility? (Vanguard's is not an ETF of course) VMNVX, Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility, expense 0.21%, roughly 50/50 US/non-US USMV, iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatili...
by steve r
Sun Apr 10, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 3103

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

Also, don't forget that many minimum volatility strategies have some duration risk. All other things equal, they tend to do well when interest rates fall and suffer when interest rates rise. If you want bond exposure in a taxable account, minimum volatility funds can be a reasonable choice. Good po...
by steve r
Sun Apr 10, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's
Replies: 20
Views: 3103

Re: Minimum Volatilaty ETF's

I certainly wouldn't be looking to use these ETF's with anything other than a buy and hold strategy. David, I am in this space as a buy and hold strategy for many years now. (first ACWV, then VMNVX when it came out) I suggest that you do your homework. A good start is: https://www.bogleheads.org/wi...
by steve r
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 20th Century Stereo in a 21st Century World
Replies: 71
Views: 9261

Re: 20th Century Stereo in a 21st Century World

I have not read ALL the other comments Go to eBay and find a Bluetooth device with either RCA jacks or whatever plugs you used. Then, put all your music on your phone or other Bluetooth device. Bluetooth sounds scary - it isn't. Don't have one, get an old iPod or old phone. You can keep all you new ...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 9474

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

steve R Just check the p/e ratios of the low vol funds and compare them to value funds of say DFA. They used to be quite similar, no more, at last I checked Larry If you run a backtest on low-vol you will notice its outperformance really kicks in once the ETFs came out; and the overall performance ...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 9474

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

I have been a converter since early 2015 after I read all the research I could find. Thus, I have invested exclusively in low volatility equity ETFs. My global equity diversification is: 45% USMV (instead of SPY), 45% EFAV (instead of EFA), 10% EEMV (instead of EEM). And now during the current mark...
by steve r
Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 9474

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

For 85 years, low volatility investing has lead to reduced risk and higher risk adjusted returns. Period. This fact has been written about now since the 1970s and the pattern continues. Moreover, I suspect that it is hard for this space to get crowded, as crowds increase volatility -- thus changing ...
by steve r
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 17613

Re: Rebalancing, another study

...And so on. Personally I found http://www.vanguard.com/pdf/icrpr.pdf to be a lot more straightforward while looking at very similiar schemes. Not thrilled about the ~90 year time period in one chart (or only the 1989+ in the others) but it is the best paper I have seen. I saw this paper a while b...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 17613

Re: Rebalancing, another study

Part of the discussion (on page 3 of this thread) is that the new study compares to income placement (not annual -- which is viewed as the usual in the literature). The study has two justifications for doing so. First, the second figure shows that annual (or quarterly or monthly ) rebalancing under...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 17613

Re: Rebalancing, another study

The idea of regularly scheduled rebalancing based on a calendar makes little sense to be ... except for the advantage of eliminating (bad) behavioral issues. Many investors have behavioral issues, when it comes to rebalancing. I think that it would be a mistake to ignore this aspect. As any claimed...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 17613

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... I recreated Daranyani's portfolio (not using the same exact sources per asset class though), then simulated his time period of choice (1992-2004), and his 10-yrs rolling periods. This is indeed a peculiar time, where the no-rebalancing technique is systematically inferior to the various rebalan...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 17613

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... I recreated Daranyani's portfolio (not using the same exact sources per asset class though), then simulated his time period of choice (1992-2004), and his 10-yrs rolling periods. This is indeed a peculiar time, where the no-rebalancing technique is systematically inferior to the various rebalan...
by steve r
Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing, another study
Replies: 130
Views: 17613

Re: Rebalancing, another study

... a) I was surprised how closely rebalancing using only dividends kept one to their target allocations over time. ... b) I think the study is also consistent with the overall concept that there is shorter term momentum and longer-term mean reversion in returns ... I'd still stick with the view th...
by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 11733

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 Having discussions on how unfair the system is pointless. We aren't going to change it. Heck I don't think 1 is even right. Last time I checked Harvard claimed the cost to educate 1 student was about 70k. Hence all undergrads were subsidized and it is just a question...
by steve r
Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)
Replies: 104
Views: 11733

Re: Am I hurting myself by saving too much? (re: college funding)

the OP has a valid question. +1 I do not see how this is in any way different than minimizing taxes or getting the best deal you can on a home or auto. Imagine going to an auto dealer and having the price you negotiate depend on income and lifetime savings. I would feel 100 percent differently if :...
by steve r
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase
Replies: 5
Views: 584

Re: Asymmetric Rebalance Bands in Accumulation Phase

I am having a similar struggle lately. I like my asset allocation -- have been sticking with it for years and fully believe I can stick with it for years to come. Intellectually, I can come up with a compelling case for my AA and why I use only low cost funds and mostly index funds. As such, I can s...
by steve r
Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?
Replies: 7
Views: 2154

Re: Paying off mortgage did *what* to my portfolio risk?

I am doing something similar. Conservative by lowering debt. Aggressive on asset allocation. That said, I think 15 percent bonds is already very aggressive based on standard formulas like age in bonds or age - 10 in bonds. I would NOT suggest being MORE aggressive. The standard formula likely assume...
by steve r
Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low beta, low volatility
Replies: 28
Views: 3548

Re: Low beta, low volatility

Beliavsky .... The right conclusion IMO is that you will get less risk, and IMO likely less return. Now with high beta I think you can conclude you'll get high risk and likely poor returns. Larry IMO this is the right conclusion (I am in this space). Couple questions -- and opinions are fine 1) Wha...
by steve r
Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is a car warranty package worth it?
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: Is a car warranty package worth it?

My thought is this ... even if you use $2,000 in repairs ... Subaru and the dealer probably STILL profit off you. That is to say what cost you $2,000 for repairs probably costs them a fraction of that. Should you cancel? Probably. Is the case to cancel a slam dunk? Hard to say. If you prefer getting...
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1924

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Continuing my previous post (playing with data on high yields).

High yields have fat tails and a high kurtosis. High than totals stock market, S&P500, and quite a few other indexes. Not sure what I expected prior to doing the calculations, but I would guess this is about as expected.

Steve
by steve r
Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1924

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I love your summary .... Steve I can't find the data, but my intuition says junk bonds have negative skew. Consider that they are both callable (limited upside) and carry the potential to default (high downside). You are right based on back tested annual (Simba) dated 1985 to 2014. My i...
by steve r
Wed Oct 14, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1924

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

Great post. I would say it is a must read for anyone invested in the low vol. space. Tentatively, I would say it offers a partial explanation of why major asset classes with greater measured risk offer greater returns, but not always assets within such asset classes. .... penny stocks (positive) vs ...
by steve r
Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?
Replies: 15
Views: 729

Re: Does timing of IRA transfer from Traditional to Roth matter?

January.
If the market goes down during the year, you can have a redo ... (reverse the re characterization) and try again next January.
by steve r
Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 2415

Re: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

Curious if any Bogleheads see any value in Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMNVX). If the following claim is true, it would be useful for conservative investors seeking global diversification: "It is reasonable for investors to expect, on average, for a minimum volatility fund to outperf...
by steve r
Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 2182

Re: Shouldn't riskier stocks have better returns?

I looked at the time period that goes as far back for all 4 funds, which is approximately 9 years. I found the following: #1 performer - PKW - Buyback index ETF - concentrating on companies that are partaking in large amounts of share buybacks - Total return 96.78% #2 performer - FLVCX - Fidelity L...