Search found 4533 matches

by grayfox
Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

I took the gamble because I can afford to lose. 75% bitcoin, 20% etherium, 5% litecoin for about .4% of portfolio that is 3 funder. I have invested for 10yrs using disciplined boglehead principles. Bitcoin could be worthless garbage but maybe not, especially the idea behind it. I recall sitting in ...
by grayfox
Sat Sep 23, 2017 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

A positive real return for bitcoin due to the supply being limited to 21 million sounds kind of iffy to me. For one thing, the limit is only imposed at about year 2140 A.D. So for the next 120 years, the supply of bitcoin will increase. From https://coinmarketcap.com/ Circulating Supply is now 16,58...
by grayfox
Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

One theoretical source of return though is this (I had forgotten about it). There is a hard limit of 21 Million coins. There are 2 deflationary pressures: Bitcoin market growth and loss of currency (lost keys). This means that if the markets that utilize it continue to grow (which they normally sho...
by grayfox
Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

You can earn interest on bitcoins. At least that is what google searches indicate. So there is apparently a form of return that is not what we normally refer to as speculation. That sounds more like a loan, i.e. a promissory note, bond or something like that, only instead of lending dollars, the lo...
by grayfox
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

Speaking of the value of bitcoin, this blogger presents some ideas about How to Value Bitcoin . One way to value Bitcoin is to think about what markets it might affect the most and what share it could take in each of those markets. He thinks that bitcoin could be applied in four markets: remittance,...
by grayfox
Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

You did stock source analysis. Now we can extend that to ETFs and options and it gets cloudier. Then futures, futures options and finally short vix futures, and vix options. We are deep into weird multi-order derivative territory now but vix options do have value. Bitcoin is a pretty deep derivativ...
by grayfox
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

:?: Where is the source of Bitcoin's Return? Looking at the numbers, there has been a positive return if you held bitcoin. Using the numbers from coinmarketcap.com: Apr 28, 2013 $134.21 Sep 16, 2017 $3,625.04 the value of 1 Bitcoin in USD has increased 27x in 4-1/3 years. And, except for a few downd...
by grayfox
Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

30sep16 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:37 am
You can get price history back to July 2010 here:
https://www.coindesk.com/price/
Thanks. I will try to take a look at their data.
by grayfox
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

Here are summary statistics for daily and 30-day return Stat Daily Return 30-Day Return MIN -23.37% -48.43% MEAN 0.30% 12.26% MEDIAN 0.19% 4.30% MAX 42.97% 466.07% SD 4.31% 46.99% Back in 2/2014, I calculated the Monthly Total Return for S&P500 from Shiller Data. For comparison, Bitcoin 30-Day Retu...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 2954

Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

If you go to https://coinmarketcap.com/ and then click on Bitcoin, and then click on Historical Data, and then choose All-Time, you can see the daily bitcoin prices for everyday going back to April 28, 2013. Bitcoin actually started in January 2009 when Satoshi Nakamoto released the open-source code...
by grayfox
Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 23
Views: 2902

Re: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies

More FUD about bitcoin diving down the price: Will China Ban Exchanges? - Some quick analysis

After recovering from the last sell off, all crypto coins down sharply on Sept 8th.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts
by grayfox
Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I started another thread China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies . I would invite posters to discuss that subject, its effect on market prices, etc., on that thread, and stick to the theme of this thread which is What Is Bitcoin , where we are discussing the underlying technologies behind blockch...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 23
Views: 2902

Re: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies

All down double digits. See CoinMarketCap.com . Right now (4.9.2017 17:13 UTC) the 10 biggest cryptos: Bitcoin -7% Etheruem -16% Bitcoin Cash -15% Ripple -12% Litecoin -17% NEM -12% Dash -12% IOTA -21% Monroe -14% 7% is a single digit. Victoria That only shows the past 24 hours. From bitcoin's rece...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 23
Views: 2902

Re: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies

Here is a short summary on YouTube (runtime: 13:35) of what is going on with the Chinese ICO ban: Daily: China's Official ICO ban and what it means This guy is worth listening to because he is bilingual and can read the Chinese new stories, and he understands the culture and government in China. He ...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 23
Views: 2902

Re: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies

Here is the list of the 60 banned ICO's.
by grayfox
Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 23
Views: 2902

Re: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies

A handful of the 1,101 cryptos are actually up over the past 24 hours. Tether +1.91% Bitcoin Dark +0.45% Rise +33.61% FairCoin +8,82% MonaCoin + 3.38% MoonCoin + 11.63% Bankcoin +12.68 bitCNY +6.25% OKCash + 61.04% E-Dinar Coin + 29.69% ATC Coin +33.77% DaxxCoin +49.70 EmberCoin + 4.36% and some oth...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 23
Views: 2902

China drops the Hammer on Cryptocurrencies

China made a big move against cryptocurrencies by making ICOs illegal: China bans companies from raising money through ICOs, asks local regulators to inspect 60 major platforms This has resulted in sharp drops in the market cap for all the cryptocurrencies. All down double digits. See CoinMarketCap....
by grayfox
Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Why is bitcoin topical for this forum? asks the poster with 8 out of 12 posts about bitcoin, all negative, while spreading FUD. Very curious.

Then I see that China just made a huge move against cryptocurrencies

Very curious.
by grayfox
Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Here's a chart of Blockchain Size . As of 2017/09/01 17:00, Blockchain Size = 131,085 MB which is about 131 GB. That is since Jan 2009, the beginning of bitcoin time. That's big, but not too big for the anyone to store, given 1 TB drives are about $100. Maybe a bit too big to store on your iPhone. A...
by grayfox
Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Wow, that Lightning Network is very complicated. I hope that the engineers developing it are a lot smarter than me because it is beyond my ability to comprehend it. When designing things, I always believed in K.I.S.S. For non-engineers, that means Keep It Simple, Stupid. Design things as complicated...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Here is something interesting called TenX . Not sure what it is, but it sounds like some kind of off-blockchain transaction system. Right now it supports Bitcoin, Etherium and Dash. TenX – Blockchain Payment Platform & Comit Network Token Sale? Is this trying to do the same thing as Lightning Networ...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Did everyone watch the Poon & Dryja presentation on Lightning Network? Does anyone understand how it works? I have to say that they lost me when they got to 3-Party Payments, Hash-Locked Contracts, and then Hashed Time-Lock Contract. Apparently a time element is needed for LN to work. Also, if I und...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bitcoin] question
Replies: 125
Views: 8415

Re: Bit Coin question

Hi, is it ok I ask a little bit about cryto currency? I know bitcoin a bit more, its about $4500 right now per coin. But I see so many other currencies coming out. ~I was wondering, how do these currencies get created? i.e. how many bitcoins are there and who created it and why cant he created a mi...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Chart: Average Block Size, in MB vs Time The issue of block size was raised sometime around late 2012/early 2013. Some early bitcoin developers started warning that with continued growth, the 1 MB block size limit would be reached in a few years. In 2012, average block size was only about 0.1 MB an...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 28, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

This Bitcoin saga is just too involved for me to keep up with. For people interested catching up on the Bitcoin fork, I'm going to direct them this VLOG series by Ryan X. Charles. The First Bitcoin Hard Fork/Split of 2017 - Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash . He put out a short (15-20 minute) VLOG starting a...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Anyone that is thinking of investing in bitcoin currency (I would call it speculating) should become familiar with the complex issues that are causing huge upheavals in bitcoin. Starting back a few years ago, Bitcoin seemed to be becoming more and more accepted by merchants and consumers. You can fi...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

It turns out that the biggest Bitcoin mining pools are in China: China’s Bitmain dominates bitcoin mining. Now it wants to cash in on artificial intelligence . A guy named Jihan Wu is in charge of Bitmain, which controls mining pools Antpool and BTC.com. They have 28.9% of the total Hash Power in th...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 26, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I get it from the miners perspective, but seems like this is a huge hindrance to widespread use? So if bitcoin cash becomes major currency, will bitcoin become near worthless? Seems to me that one of the major risks to investors of bitcoin is the potential of a more practical user friendly coin to ...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Are they working on a solution to this? Also, what happens when we reach the next fork, as far as potential of bitcoin itself? The crazy thing is that many developers in the Bitcoin Core group believe that high fees are a feature, not a bug. The folks that wanted larger block size and lower fees al...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The world of Bitcoin is in massive turmoil right now. Since the split to Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash there has been crazy stuff going on. And there is probably going to be another hard fork with Segwit2x. Then there is this issue with "replay attack" which comes about with the hard forks. It complicate...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

My questions are about cryptocurrency market share and market dominance (chart below). How will Bitcoin investors be impacted by the loss of market share? Can all the various cryptocurrencies co-exist in the future — or are we seeing a competition today for the dominance of a single currency? Is it...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The world of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is getting more insane every day. Bitcoin Cash split off from from regular bitcoin on August 1, 2017. The split was over the block size debate. Bitcoin Cash has an 8 MB block. This seems to have caused a major upheaval. Miners are having to decide whether to...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

So how is bitcoin supposed to take over the world when it only has a capacity of 3 transactions per second (tps)? Maybe could take over Vermont (pop. 624,594) or Wyoming (pop 585, 501). From Scalability , Paypal averaged 115 tps in 2014. The VISA network averages about 2,000 tps, with a daily peak o...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin dust! That's a new one. It looks like anything smaller than 5460 satoshi is considered dust. A satoshi is 1/100,000,000 BTC. At current price 1 BTC = $4,271.42, dust is anything worth less than about 23 cents. What are Bitcoin Mining Fees and Dust? It seems that the further you go down the b...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

As I dig into the details of bitcoin, I'm learning that it has problems. There are a lot of issues, but there is one huge problem. It has a capacity problem. What is the Current Capacity? The level of difficult is adjusted to create, on average, 1 block every 10 minutes. Block Size is capped at 1 Me...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

What can one "purchase" with bitcoin? And, by extrapolation, what is the current dollar value of that same object? Can you buy groceries or a car with bitcoin? Can you get a mortgage denominated in bitcoin? ... I look at where and to whom I pay money to every month and year: Rent, Electric Bill, He...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Antminer S7 ~4.73TH/s @ .25W/GH 28nm ASIC Bitcoin Miner on Amazon Hash Rate: 4.73 TH/s ±5% Power Consumption: 1293W ±10% Power Efficiency: 0.25 W/GH ±10% Requires 10x 6 pin pci-e connectors Power Supply required and sold separately (So you will have to buy more stuff like over supplies and motherbo...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Here is a Bitcoin Mining Profitable Calculator I entered: Difficulty factor = 923233068449 (default) Hash rate = 60 MH/s BTC Block Reward = 12.5 (default) Pool Fees % = blank (default) Power = 1100 Watts Power Cost = 0.21 USD/kWh (cost in California) Hardware Cost = 5000 USD Profit calculation Durat...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I gave an example of having 1 mining machine when the entire networks had some number of machines, like 100,000. Apparently the actual number of mining machines is unknown. But the total computing power of all the miners can be estimated and is measured in MH/s (Mega hashes per second) or GH/s (Giga...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I think there are ways to get around the miner fees, just start mining yourself. This is a cut/paste of a device to start your own mining: Eve - Best Selling Mining Device - 60 mh/s Availability: Many in stock Eve - Best Selling Mining Device - 60 mh/s Eve- Power Efficient Device $3,500.00 -$5,000....
by grayfox
Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

My (admittedly quite limited) understanding is that there may be more fees. In particular, fees to deposit/withdraw regular currencies to/from the exchanges. I think you are right. I was just watching a YouTube by a Canadian bitcoin miner was trying to sell 205.88 USD worth of BTC that he had mined...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The light has returned. Those paleolithic guys probably thought they dodged a bullet. Well it's becoming clear to me that bitcoin, in its present form, will not be replacing US Dollars, Euro or Yen anytime soon. With transactions fees of $4 to $24 to buy a bottle of pop, it's useless for day-to-day ...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

"Before the Great Ice came, I found this magic stone in the river when our hunting party was out in search of Wooly Mammoth. It was a gift from the River Spirit. I tied it out around my neck using a leather cord and wore it as a talisman to bring good luck. We brought down a large beast without no l...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The website bitcoinfees.21.co claims to track the average fee-per-byte needed to make it likely to have one's transaction confirmed in a given amount of time. The fees can and do fluctuate enormously; just a week ago the minimum fee was about $3 for a confirmation in 30 minutes or less for an avera...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The miner gets a 12,500 mBTC for completing a new block. But you also have to bribe the miner with a fee to include your transaction in the block. :annoyed The fee doesn't depend on the amount of the transaction, but the the size of the transaction record in bytes or kbytes. I picked a random block ...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

What is the intrinsic value of gold? Isn't it just a shiny metal? I think the characteristics of gold give it some kind intrinsic value. Even if there was no economy, no civilization, no trade no money. If I was paleolithic hunter/gatherer and saw a gold nugget lying on the ground, I'm sure that I ...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

There are also cryptocurrencies claiming to be backed by energy (renewable or otherwise), or by time...not sure how redemption works for the latter. I can imagine an old rich guy near death redeeming his vast wealth for a second lifetime. That would make a good Twilight Zone episode. If I am not mi...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Look at all the cryptocurrencies https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

1071 cryptocurrencies. Are they all competing with each other to become the one and only currency?
Or are they targeting different applications for transactions?
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

There are undoubtedly certain applications where a blockchain ledger has clear advantages that outweigh the disadvantages. Maybe some of those applications will change the world. Even if they do, that doesn't mean that any cryptocurrency will have any value, let alone that bitcoin will rule the wor...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23292

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I think the concepts behind bitcoin are more significant than bitcoin itself. Cryptocurrencies in general will provide some utility. Other applications of the Blockchain beyond digital currency may be more important still. I've seen them lecture about using the Blockchain for property records. Havin...