Search found 5549 matches
- Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:17 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
- Replies: 315
- Views: 34161
- Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:00 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
- Replies: 112
- Views: 15096
Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
FYI: Update on Mebane Faber's 10-month SMA. At the end of each month there is a signal that tells you IN or OUT.
For July-2020, the 10-month SMA is showing IN for the S&P500: Moving Averages June Update: Market Up 1.8%. Total Stock Market (VTI) is showing IN. Europe (VEU) and U.S. REITS (VNQ) are showing OUT.
I don't actually follow this timing system, but I am also IN for U.S. stocks, so at this time I am aligned with it.
More information:
Faber's 10-month Moving Average
Paper: A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
For July-2020, the 10-month SMA is showing IN for the S&P500: Moving Averages June Update: Market Up 1.8%. Total Stock Market (VTI) is showing IN. Europe (VEU) and U.S. REITS (VNQ) are showing OUT.
I don't actually follow this timing system, but I am also IN for U.S. stocks, so at this time I am aligned with it.
More information:
Faber's 10-month Moving Average
Paper: A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
- Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
- Replies: 370
- Views: 32542
Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
nevermind
- Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:08 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
- Replies: 747
- Views: 54126
- Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
- Replies: 747
- Views: 54126
- Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:07 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
- Replies: 747
- Views: 54126
Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
I'm running portfoliovisualizer from Jan-2007, just before the Great Recession of 2008/2009, to Dec-2019, just before the pandemic of 2020. I think you have a timeframe issue with your analysis. 2007 was a very peculiar year for international. Compare VGTSX (Total International Stock) to VBMFX (Total Bond) from 1996 to the present using Morningstar 's interactive chart feature, and you'll see a high peak in international in 2007, your chosen start date for your timeframe. In fact, for several years up to 2007, international was even significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The earliest start date for VGTSX is May-1996. VBMFX-VGTSX-5/1996-12/2019 What I see is that VGTSX was below VBMFX for most of the 24 years. The only good long run V...
- Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:10 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International Dividends Got Crushed in Q2 2020
- Replies: 27
- Views: 4214
- Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:59 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
- Replies: 747
- Views: 54126
Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
I'm running portfoliovisualizer from Jan-2007, just before the Great Recession of 2008/2009, to Dec-2019, just before the pandemic of 2020. The benchmark I'm using is Vanguard Total Bond Market (VBMFX). I looked at Vanguard International Total Stock Market (VGTSX) and all the regions, Europe (VEURX), Pacific (VPACX), Emerging (VEIEX). Eg. VBMFX-VGTSX-VEURX :arrow: Shocking Result: The whole Ex-US world and no region was able to beat Total Bond Market TBM over the 13-year period. I also looked at some individual countries. The following countries failed to beat TBM: Mexico Canada UK France Germany Sweden Spain Italy Belgium Austria Japan Malasia Brazil South Africa Only these fine countries beat the TBM: Switzerland Netherlands Australia Hon...
- Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:51 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International Dividends Got Crushed in Q2 2020
- Replies: 27
- Views: 4214
- Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
- Replies: 747
- Views: 54126
Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
As I write this post, Vanguard's total-market ex-US fund VTIAX/VXUS is trading below its price of 9.5 years ago . In the same timeframe, Vanguard's total US market VTSAX/VTI nearly tripled in price, even after the recent hit of COVID-19. Ex-US returns have been simply abysmal for the past decade. Vanguard officially recommends allocating 40% of your stock holdings to ex-US. That is, Vanguard recommends you hold VTIAX almost on par with VTSAX. How does this recommendation make sense if ex-US investments simply fail to perform? Perhaps there are long-standing factors that simply prevent ex-US from rewarding investors on par with US equities? For example, perhaps investor protections in the US are better than foreign? One cannot help but thin...
- Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP
- Replies: 96
- Views: 8315
- Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:35 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: International Dividends Got Crushed in Q2 2020
- Replies: 27
- Views: 4214
- Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:51 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: 60 World Stock Markets
nevermind
- Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:05 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: 60 World Stock Markets
nevermind
- Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:10 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pac
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1362
Re: Pacific Stock Funds
nevermind
- Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:46 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pac
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1362
Re: Pacific Stock Funds
nevermind
- Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:06 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:38 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:50 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:45 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
Here's an idea I had.
I have been comparing the foreign stock markets to the U.S. stock market, which is kind of the gold standard of stock markets. That is like comparing all sprinters to Usain Bolt. That is a very high bar. Of course they will all fall short. How about lowering the bar and comparing all the stock markets against bonds. See if you got more cash back from the countries stock market than from a bond fund or Treasuries.
Or set a really low hurdle like CPI. Did the country ETF keep up with CPI inflation? Did the stock dividend grow fast than CPI inflation?
I think I will look at that.
I have been comparing the foreign stock markets to the U.S. stock market, which is kind of the gold standard of stock markets. That is like comparing all sprinters to Usain Bolt. That is a very high bar. Of course they will all fall short. How about lowering the bar and comparing all the stock markets against bonds. See if you got more cash back from the countries stock market than from a bond fund or Treasuries.
Or set a really low hurdle like CPI. Did the country ETF keep up with CPI inflation? Did the stock dividend grow fast than CPI inflation?
I think I will look at that.
- Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:09 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Em
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1244
Re: Emerging Stock Markets
nevermind
- Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:56 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Em
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1244
Re: Emerging Stock Markets
nevermind
- Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Em
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1244
Re: Emerging Stock Markets
nevermind
- Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:02 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Em
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1244
Em
deleted
- Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:09 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Eur
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1107
Eur
deleted
- Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pac
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1362
Re: Pacific Stock Funds
nevermind
- Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:16 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:40 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:31 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pac
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1362
Re: Pacific Stock Funds
nevermind
- Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:39 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pac
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1362
Re: Pacific Stock Funds
nevermind
- Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:16 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pac
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1362
Re: Pacific Stock Funds
nevermind
- Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:04 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Re: North American Stock Markets
nevermind
- Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:56 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nor
- Replies: 19
- Views: 2170
Nor
deleted
- Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:41 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Pac
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1362
Pac
deleted
- Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
- Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:27 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind
- Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:21 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
- Replies: 315
- Views: 34161
- Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind
- Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
- Replies: 315
- Views: 34161
- Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:51 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind
- Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:36 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind
- Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:38 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind
- Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:32 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
- Replies: 112
- Views: 15096
Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
If you are going to market time, don't fly by the seat of your pants, i.e. don't I get in or out on gut instinct. Follow a simple set of rules. Use some kind of mechanical system to follow so that you can "stay the course". But easier said than done. One simple system is Mebane Faber's 10-month SMA. The way it works is at the end of each month you get a signal that tells you IN or OUT. For June-2020, the 10-month SMA is showing IN for the S&P500: Moving Averages May Update: Market Up 4.5% . Total World (VTI) and Europe (VEU) are showing OUT. I don't use this system myself. I don't believe in selling when the market is down 10-15+%. So I stayed in during the bear market and, in fact, was moving from bonds to stocks all the way ...
- Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:19 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind
- Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Vanguard GNMA for emergency fund?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1150
- Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind
- Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60
- Replies: 152
- Views: 15297
Re: Investing in International Stocks
nevermind