Search found 5549 matches

by grayfox
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 112
Views: 15096

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

FYI: Update on Mebane Faber's 10-month SMA. At the end of each month there is a signal that tells you IN or OUT.

For July-2020, the 10-month SMA is showing IN for the S&P500: Moving Averages June Update: Market Up 1.8%. Total Stock Market (VTI) is showing IN. Europe (VEU) and U.S. REITS (VNQ) are showing OUT.

I don't actually follow this timing system, but I am also IN for U.S. stocks, so at this time I am aligned with it.

More information:
Faber's 10-month Moving Average
Paper: A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
by grayfox
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 32542

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

nevermind
by grayfox
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 747
Views: 54126

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I'm running portfoliovisualizer from Jan-2007, just before the Great Recession of 2008/2009, to Dec-2019, just before the pandemic of 2020. I think you have a timeframe issue with your analysis. 2007 was a very peculiar year for international. Compare VGTSX (Total International Stock) to VBMFX (Total Bond) from 1996 to the present using Morningstar 's interactive chart feature, and you'll see a high peak in international in 2007, your chosen start date for your timeframe. In fact, for several years up to 2007, international was even significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The earliest start date for VGTSX is May-1996. VBMFX-VGTSX-5/1996-12/2019 What I see is that VGTSX was below VBMFX for most of the 24 years. The only good long run V...
by grayfox
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 747
Views: 54126

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I'm running portfoliovisualizer from Jan-2007, just before the Great Recession of 2008/2009, to Dec-2019, just before the pandemic of 2020. The benchmark I'm using is Vanguard Total Bond Market (VBMFX). I looked at Vanguard International Total Stock Market (VGTSX) and all the regions, Europe (VEURX), Pacific (VPACX), Emerging (VEIEX). Eg. VBMFX-VGTSX-VEURX :arrow: Shocking Result: The whole Ex-US world and no region was able to beat Total Bond Market TBM over the 13-year period. I also looked at some individual countries. The following countries failed to beat TBM: Mexico Canada UK France Germany Sweden Spain Italy Belgium Austria Japan Malasia Brazil South Africa Only these fine countries beat the TBM: Switzerland Netherlands Australia Hon...
by grayfox
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 747
Views: 54126

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

As I write this post, Vanguard's total-market ex-US fund VTIAX/VXUS is trading below its price of 9.5 years ago . In the same timeframe, Vanguard's total US market VTSAX/VTI nearly tripled in price, even after the recent hit of COVID-19. Ex-US returns have been simply abysmal for the past decade. Vanguard officially recommends allocating 40% of your stock holdings to ex-US. That is, Vanguard recommends you hold VTIAX almost on par with VTSAX. How does this recommendation make sense if ex-US investments simply fail to perform? Perhaps there are long-standing factors that simply prevent ex-US from rewarding investors on par with US equities? For example, perhaps investor protections in the US are better than foreign? One cannot help but thin...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP
Replies: 96
Views: 8315

deleted
by grayfox
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: 60 World Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: 60 World Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pac
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Pacific Stock Funds

nevermind
by grayfox
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pac
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Pacific Stock Funds

nevermind
by grayfox
Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

Here's an idea I had.

I have been comparing the foreign stock markets to the U.S. stock market, which is kind of the gold standard of stock markets. That is like comparing all sprinters to Usain Bolt. That is a very high bar. Of course they will all fall short. How about lowering the bar and comparing all the stock markets against bonds. See if you got more cash back from the countries stock market than from a bond fund or Treasuries.

Or set a really low hurdle like CPI. Did the country ETF keep up with CPI inflation? Did the stock dividend grow fast than CPI inflation?

I think I will look at that.
by grayfox
Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Em
Replies: 5
Views: 1244

Re: Emerging Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Em
Replies: 5
Views: 1244

Re: Emerging Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Em
Replies: 5
Views: 1244

Re: Emerging Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Em
Replies: 5
Views: 1244

Em

deleted
by grayfox
Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eur
Replies: 1
Views: 1107

Eur

deleted
by grayfox
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pac
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Pacific Stock Funds

nevermind
by grayfox
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pac
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Pacific Stock Funds

nevermind
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pac
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Pacific Stock Funds

nevermind
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pac
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Pacific Stock Funds

nevermind
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Re: North American Stock Markets

nevermind
by grayfox
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nor
Replies: 19
Views: 2170

Nor

deleted
by grayfox
Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pac
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Pac

deleted
by grayfox
Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

moved
by grayfox
Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind
by grayfox
Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 315
Views: 34161

deleted
by grayfox
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind
by grayfox
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 315
Views: 34161

deleted
by grayfox
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind
by grayfox
Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 112
Views: 15096

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

If you are going to market time, don't fly by the seat of your pants, i.e. don't I get in or out on gut instinct. Follow a simple set of rules. Use some kind of mechanical system to follow so that you can "stay the course". But easier said than done. One simple system is Mebane Faber's 10-month SMA. The way it works is at the end of each month you get a signal that tells you IN or OUT. For June-2020, the 10-month SMA is showing IN for the S&P500: Moving Averages May Update: Market Up 4.5% . Total World (VTI) and Europe (VEU) are showing OUT. I don't use this system myself. I don't believe in selling when the market is down 10-15+%. So I stayed in during the bear market and, in fact, was moving from bonds to stocks all the way ...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind
by grayfox
Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard GNMA for emergency fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 1150

deleted
by grayfox
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind
by grayfox
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 15297

Re: Investing in International Stocks

nevermind