Search found 4912 matches

by grayfox
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it LMP/RP, is it Buckets, is it rising equity AA, is it mental accounting, or is it just MLA? (Myopic loss aversion)?
Replies: 17
Views: 1249

Re: Is it LMP/RP, is it Buckets, is it rising equity AA, is it mental accounting, or is it just MLA? (Myopic loss aversi

Dear Bogleheads, I am a long-time reader (back to M* days), but post infrequently. Thanks to you all, and some good fortune, I am approaching an early retirement in a couple of years at age ~57. I am trying to position myself for a secure future, and wanted to bounce some thoughts off of you. I am ...
by grayfox
Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to help teenager fix silly mistakes in math?
Replies: 50
Views: 3187

Re: How to help teenager fix silly mistakes in math?

The best way to expose errors is to find a solution two different ways. They should agree. If not, there is something wrong with one or both. A variation on this is to make a rough calculation as a sanity check. For example, what the sign should be? What order of magnitude are you expecting? Also, d...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10372

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

The ongoing comments about the article promoting market timing are just completely off the mark. For those who are really interested in understanding what Vanguard is talking about, you really should read the full report I linked to earlier--here it is again: Vanguard's economic and market outlook ...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Previous 10 year returns predicitions
Replies: 6
Views: 983

Re: Previous 10 year returns predicitions

First, what was the actual return for S&P 500 for the past 10 years? Say from Jul-2008 to Jul-2018. Assume you invested in Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares ( VFINX ). From portfoliovisualizer , CAGR = 10.35%. That is nominal return. What about inflation-adjusted return? From BLS CPI Inflation...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82302

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Oh, and by the way, That “Five Monkeys Experiment” Never Happened What! no way! lol. Whether the experiment were real or not, didn't the fact it's widespread already proved its point? Cheers :sharebeer There are actual scientific observations about monkeys that we can learn from. There was one stor...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1051
Views: 82302

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I would like to de-construct the return for U.S. and International into dividend + growth of warnings + valuation change. I can do this for U.S. using ONLINE DATA ROBERT SHILLER . I don't know where to get all the price, earnings and dividend for International stocks. Then we can see where the retur...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Here's a good one: Geiger Counter Measuring Vintage Radioactive Red Fiestaware Dinner Plate 27,500 counts per minute. :D Well, that was from the 1930s to 1950s. But now we know better, right? My IPad is Radioactive!!! Did Not Expect That... :oops: ---------- More fun with Geiger Counters: Radioactiv...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

So basically the pooled studies, American and European, have not found enough evidence to say that low-level radon exposure (100 Bq/m^3) causes lung cancer. Apparently not enough evidence to even say that it is correlated. The only conclusion they can draw is that low-level radon exposure (100 Bq/m^...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

There is direct evidence that low levels (100 Bq/m3 or 2.7 pCi/L) of radon lead to lung cancer: https://www.epa.gov/radon/health-risk-radon#iowa https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-08/documents/euro_rn_pooling.pdf Caoimhin Connell and others seem to ignore the direct evidence. Connell s...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Holy cow! This guy has a Geiger Counter and shows that his air filters are radioactive.

Radioactive Material in My Air?

I was watching another video where he testa the rainwater after a rainstorm, and guess what? The rain is also radioactive!
by grayfox
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

We are renting a home and about say 50 yards from us is another home with a radon mitigation system- basically a PVC pipe that is about 16 to 20 feet above and venting out radon. Is this safe for us? Its a bit unnerving because the pipe opening is facing us but obviously its closest to them. What c...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Here are some data points for variability, using my Airthings Wave. We live on a hill side, and the lower end of our basement is a 2 car garage. At the garage door side, readings have varied from about 1 to 3. At the far end of the garage, readings have range from 1 to 4.5. It hit 4.5 twice. Intere...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

One of the biggest scams any homeowner can ever experience. Like others said...radon is everywhere. When you invite someone into your home to test for radon levels...how many times do you think they tell you its ok? Ive never heard of any. They will always tell you to install a vent system. Its not...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

One time, when I was buying a condo, I hired a home inspector for $300. The next day after the inspection, he called and said that he could do a radon test for an additional $90. He would place canisters in the home for 48 hours. This was a 3rd floor condo and it was still occupied by the seller and...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3438

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

OK, for U.S. Investors with 70/30 asset allocation, for 30 year withdrawal period: Average max withdrawal rate was 6.6% and half were greater than 6.3%. 75% were in the range 5.0% to 7.9% (mistake. actually 50% in range. 75% above 5.0%) 90% were in the range 4.3% to 9.4% They never showed these gra...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Canada has lowered its limit to 200. I did not check all those limits. Note that some countries have lower limits for new construction. WHO recommends a limit of 100. According to this, What is a safe and acceptable level of radon gas? , 200 and 100 are not safe. "A safe level of radon gas is no ra...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Sola dosis fact venenum. The Dose makes the Poison. This basic principle of toxicology is credited to Paracelsus. "All things are poison and nothing is without poison; only the dose makes a thing not a poison." So what dose makes radon a poison and at what level is it safe? Here's a table Table 8.4 ...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Set of 4 videos from this guy who is an industrial hygienist and deals with human health hazards. Radon 1 of 4: https://youtu.be/TYZglUjLE0Y What is a Curie? 37x10^9 disintegrations per second. (initial decay rate of 1 gram of Radium) What is a picoCurie (pCi)? pico is 10^-12, so 1 pC = 0.037 disint...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

A basic look at what Radon is: Radon - Periodic Table of Videos: https://youtu.be/mTuC_LrEfbU Radon (Rn 86) is given off as a gas from the radioactive decay of Radium (Ra 88). Radium-226 -> Radon-222 + α α particle is Helium nucleus He.2+ Radon is also radioactive and decays. Half life is 3.8 days. ...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

Here's a video where a scientist with a Geiger counter tests various things you have around the house. A Geiger counter measures ionizing radiation. Brazil nuts from Brazil are radioactive, but Brazil nuts not from Brazil only 1-2 counts per second on the Geiger counter. Low sodium salt contains K-4...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3438

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

OK, for U.S. Investors with 70/30 asset allocation, for 30 year withdrawal period: Average max withdrawal rate was 6.6% and half were greater than 6.3%. 75% were in the range 5.0% to 7.9% 90% were in the range 4.3% to 9.4% They never showed these graphs and statistics in the Trinity Study and simila...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4107

Re: radon mitigation exposure concern, are we at risk?

What about other sources of radiation? According to this article, 8 Foods You Didn't Know Are Radioactive Bananas have 3,520 pCi/kg Potatoes 4,500 pCi/kg Carrots 6,800 pCi/kg Lima Beans 4,630 pCi/kg Red Meat 3,000 pCi/kg Low-Sodium Salt 3,000 pCi/kg Beer 390 pCi/kg Brazil Nuts 6,600 pCi/kg These num...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3438

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Would it be too much trouble to ask for some additional statistics. LOL, you are asking a LOT of questions... Let's see... Yearly or Monthly Data? => this is based on annual data, this is all we have that far back in time. => also remember that for the UK, we had to emulate IT bonds with 50% bills ...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3438

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Thanks for posting this info. I, for one, would like to see the whole graph for 40 years. I'm curious about how the SWR varied over time, and am interested in the average and max, not just the minimum. Here are the two main graphs. I really have to insist though on how crucial it is for early retir...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does it matter, considering scatter? Part 1 of many: Introduction
Replies: 38
Views: 4650

Re: How much does it matter, considering scatter? Part 1 of many: Introduction

To the risk of side-tracking the thread... I made another representation of the very exact same data. I find it much more informative than a scatter chart, to be honest. I think I'm going to add something like that to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, allowing to parameterize the initial portfolio...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3438

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Thanks for the quick response! http://i.imgur.com/R3hwCfcl.jpg http://i.imgur.com/SqEsjI9l.jpg US varied from about 3 to 10 UK varied from about 2 to 11 The variation for starting withdrawal rate is so wide, you can't just set it at year 0 and follow the withdrawal formula used in the standard analy...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3438

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Interesting post, what happens if you look at 40-year SWRs? Unless you have a specific request, maybe I'll skip posting the whole set of charts, but here is the synthesis table for 30 and 40 years retirement cycles. See more explanations here . http://i.imgur.com/M9DCsVOl.jpg http://i.imgur.com/Tc3...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7527

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

It seems to me that the overall trend is for small firms to merge into larger firms and larger firms to take over smaller firms. If no new companies were started, over time the number of companies would shrink and eventually there would be a mere handful of mega-mega-corporations that are responsibl...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 17
Views: 2322

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

Fed leaves rates unchanged but upgrades view of the US economy to 'strong' The Federal Open Market Committee votes unanimously to keep the target range for its benchmark rate at 1.75 percent to 2 percent. The Yield curve is still not inverted. Date 1 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Y...
by grayfox
Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8880

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

From multpl.com CAPE (P/E10) was about 15 in 2009 which is about the long term average CAPE. 1/CAPE = E10/P = 0.0667 so CAPE was predicting about 6.67% expected real return. Their chart shows -15 !?! Makes no sense. The chart is *trailing* 10-year rolling, they are comparing actual realised returns...
by grayfox
Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8880

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

Vanguard has an article on their website summarizing their recent paper, Improving U.S. Stock Return Forecasts: A "Fair-Value" CAPE Approach , published in the Winter 2018 issue of The Journal of Portfolio Management. Look at the chart 1970 through 2016. There is something wrong with that chart. Th...
by grayfox
Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 17
Views: 2322

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

I think that the two quarters of negative GDP is just a rule-of-thumb used by some, but not necessarily by NBER. From The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research January 7, 2008 The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the ...
by grayfox
Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 17
Views: 2322

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

This may be a useful resource: Paper and Data on Yield Curve from the Fed: The Federal Reserve Board The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve: 1961 to the Present Refet S. Gurkaynak, Brian Sack, and Jonathan H. Wright 2006-28 https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2006/200628/200628abs.html Added: Trying to ...
by grayfox
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 2033

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

Fascinating. Page 34: It is therefore no accident that the "heyday of American communism" (Klehr 1984) also saw violent swings in share prices; similar forces were operative in countries where the establishment had reasons to worry about the ability to beat back revolutionary movements that tried to...
by grayfox
Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin
Replies: 47
Views: 4452

Re: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin

Just to clarify my understanding, the 10.5 error bar for EM means that there could have been an annual return over the 7 year period of anywhere from -2.9% to 18.1% and this would have been counted as a correct prediction? Right. GMOs assertion was that, at the end of the 7 year period, the actual ...
by grayfox
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin
Replies: 47
Views: 4452

Re: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin

https://pensionpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/gmo4.png - ref: https://pensionpartners.com/the-next-7-years/ They basically got 3 forecasts (emerging bond, us bonds and tips) out of 11. :shock: Now I better understand Bogle's words about forecasters like Rob Arnott. When they asked him "How...
by grayfox
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 17
Views: 2322

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

A common measure of the yield curve is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield. We can chart that directly using FRED, and see how it relates to recessions: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=kl9V That measure also shows not inverted at this time. And there is a long lag in each cas...
by grayfox
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 17
Views: 2322

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

OK, what about today? I did the same with the Treasury Daily Yield Curve for 2017-2018 Date 1M–FFR 3M-1M 6M-3M 1Y-6M 2Y-1Y 3Y-2Y 5Y-3Y 7Y-5Y 10Y-7Y 20Y-10Y 30Y-20Y 01/03/17 -13 1 12 24 33 28 44 32 19 33 26 01/04/17 -16 4 10 24 37 26 44 32 20 32 27 01/05/17 -14 1 10 21 34 26 43 32 19 32 27 01/06/17 -...
by grayfox
Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 17
Views: 2322

In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

I'm seeing posts about inverted yield curves. There are some theories that they can predict that a recession is imminent. So I decided to looked at the yield curve prior to the last recession, a.k.a The Great Recession. According to NBER , the last recession started in Dec-2007 and ended Jun-2009. T...
by grayfox
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation Rate, isn't it personal?
Replies: 49
Views: 3868

Re: Inflation Rate, isn't it personal?

I showed this on another thread, which I can't find at this time.

2001 100.0
2002 84.70
2003 56.70
2004 56.17
2005 57.22
2006 48.41
2007 36.67
2008 40.83
2009 29.30
2010 29.92
2011 35.80
2012 35.71
2013 33.54
2014 29.25
2015 33.31
2016 45.40
2017 63.54

What's my personal inflation rate?
by grayfox
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flatting Yield Curve - buckle up for the storm?
Replies: 27
Views: 2616

Re: Flatting Yield Curve - buckle up for the storm?

Here is what I see today: Date 1 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 07/18/18 1.90 2.00 2.17 2.43 2.60 2.69 2.77 2.84 2.88 2.93 2.99 Diff (bps) 10 17 26 17 9 8 7 4 5 6 https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield The slo...
by grayfox
Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flatting Yield Curve - buckle up for the storm?
Replies: 27
Views: 2616

Re: Flatting Yield Curve - buckle up for the storm?

Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) with SEC Yield = 2.05% looks pretty good. Average maturity = 49 days.

As Fed Funds Rate rises, VMMXX stays a little above it.We might be getting 2.5% by the end of 2018! :beer
by grayfox
Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flatting Yield Curve - buckle up for the storm?
Replies: 27
Views: 2616

Re: Flatting Yield Curve - buckle up for the storm?

To invert the yield curve, just keep raising the Fed Funds Rate like in 2004 - 2006. By Jul-2006 FEDFUNDS was 5.25% and stayed there until Jun-2007 when they started lowering. The Great Recession officially started about Dec-2007. From when the rate hit 5.25% until G.R. was 17 months. https://fred.s...
by grayfox
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1654

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

The first part, about the Fed not affecting long-term rates, is well-known and accepted. Even the Federal Reserve writes papers about it. See for instance the paper from the St Louis Federal Reserve "The Greenspan Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields": This paper shows that th...
by grayfox
Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1654

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

Agree with which part? Damodaran talked about a few different things. The first part, about the Fed not affecting long-term rates, is well-known and accepted. Even the Federal Reserve writes papers about it. See for instance the paper from the St Louis Federal Reserve "The Greenspan Conundrum and t...
by grayfox
Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1654

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

The Federal Reserve doesn't have any power to affect the interest rates on any of the bonds in your portfolio. The interest rates on your bonds did not go up. Here's some reading that might help: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-fed-interest-rates-and-stock-prices.html or if you pref...
by grayfox
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2210

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Bad rental. Your rental analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xuBPDESeR5VGq56-TFjVIlAOpjSX61TTvEGNfS3-1dk/edit?usp=sharing Banks will require at least 25% down because it's an investment property. You'll net -3.28% per year and that's bare bones accounting for expenses. Excellent detail...
by grayfox
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2210

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Thanks for all the responses. It sounds unanimous that it is a bad deal. I recall that radio host Bruce Williams had a rule of thumb: monthly rent should be 1% of purchase price. So $1,000 per month rent would imply $100,000 price or lower. So at $159,000 this property would not pass Bruce Williams....
by grayfox
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2210

Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Any Real Estate investors out there? Is a good real estate investment for income? 2BR, 1BA Condo Square Feet: 953 Year Built: 2006 Asking: $159,000 Monthly Rent: $1,000 HOA: $251 per month Property Tax: $2,432 per year Insurance: 800 per year?? Maintenance: ?? Gas Heat: $400 per year (paid by tenant...
by grayfox
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4873

Re: yield curve inversion

Looking at this chart, it seems like almost every recession since 1954 was proceeded by the Fed Funds Rate increasing. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=kmLO FRED: Effective Federal Funds Rate Recession of: 1957-58: Tight monetary policy 1960-61: Another monetary recession 1969-70: F...