Search found 4499 matches

by grayfox
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

As I dig into the details of bitcoin, I'm learning that it has problems. There are a lot of issues, but there is one huge problem. It has a capacity problem. What is the Current Capacity? The level of difficult is adjusted to create, on average, 1 block every 10 minutes. Block Size is capped at 1 Me...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

What can one "purchase" with bitcoin? And, by extrapolation, what is the current dollar value of that same object? Can you buy groceries or a car with bitcoin? Can you get a mortgage denominated in bitcoin? ... I look at where and to whom I pay money to every month and year: Rent, Electric Bill, He...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Antminer S7 ~4.73TH/s @ .25W/GH 28nm ASIC Bitcoin Miner on Amazon Hash Rate: 4.73 TH/s ±5% Power Consumption: 1293W ±10% Power Efficiency: 0.25 W/GH ±10% Requires 10x 6 pin pci-e connectors Power Supply required and sold separately (So you will have to buy more stuff like over supplies and motherbo...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Here is a Bitcoin Mining Profitable Calculator I entered: Difficulty factor = 923233068449 (default) Hash rate = 60 MH/s BTC Block Reward = 12.5 (default) Pool Fees % = blank (default) Power = 1100 Watts Power Cost = 0.21 USD/kWh (cost in California) Hardware Cost = 5000 USD Profit calculation Durat...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I gave an example of having 1 mining machine when the entire networks had some number of machines, like 100,000. Apparently the actual number of mining machines is unknown. But the total computing power of all the miners can be estimated and is measured in MH/s (Mega hashes per second) or GH/s (Giga...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I think there are ways to get around the miner fees, just start mining yourself. This is a cut/paste of a device to start your own mining: Eve - Best Selling Mining Device - 60 mh/s Availability: Many in stock Eve - Best Selling Mining Device - 60 mh/s Eve- Power Efficient Device $3,500.00 -$5,000....
by grayfox
Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

My (admittedly quite limited) understanding is that there may be more fees. In particular, fees to deposit/withdraw regular currencies to/from the exchanges. I think you are right. I was just watching a YouTube by a Canadian bitcoin miner was trying to sell 205.88 USD worth of BTC that he had mined...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The light has returned. Those paleolithic guys probably thought they dodged a bullet. Well it's becoming clear to me that bitcoin, in its present form, will not be replacing US Dollars, Euro or Yen anytime soon. With transactions fees of $4 to $24 to buy a bottle of pop, it's useless for day-to-day ...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

"Before the Great Ice came, I found this magic stone in the river when our hunting party was out in search of Wooly Mammoth. It was a gift from the River Spirit. I tied it out around my neck using a leather cord and wore it as a talisman to bring good luck. We brought down a large beast without no l...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The website bitcoinfees.21.co claims to track the average fee-per-byte needed to make it likely to have one's transaction confirmed in a given amount of time. The fees can and do fluctuate enormously; just a week ago the minimum fee was about $3 for a confirmation in 30 minutes or less for an avera...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The miner gets a 12,500 mBTC for completing a new block. But you also have to bribe the miner with a fee to include your transaction in the block. :annoyed The fee doesn't depend on the amount of the transaction, but the the size of the transaction record in bytes or kbytes. I picked a random block ...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

What is the intrinsic value of gold? Isn't it just a shiny metal? I think the characteristics of gold give it some kind intrinsic value. Even if there was no economy, no civilization, no trade no money. If I was paleolithic hunter/gatherer and saw a gold nugget lying on the ground, I'm sure that I ...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

There are also cryptocurrencies claiming to be backed by energy (renewable or otherwise), or by time...not sure how redemption works for the latter. I can imagine an old rich guy near death redeeming his vast wealth for a second lifetime. That would make a good Twilight Zone episode. If I am not mi...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Look at all the cryptocurrencies https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

1071 cryptocurrencies. Are they all competing with each other to become the one and only currency?
Or are they targeting different applications for transactions?
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

There are undoubtedly certain applications where a blockchain ledger has clear advantages that outweigh the disadvantages. Maybe some of those applications will change the world. Even if they do, that doesn't mean that any cryptocurrency will have any value, let alone that bitcoin will rule the wor...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 20, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I think the concepts behind bitcoin are more significant than bitcoin itself. Cryptocurrencies in general will provide some utility. Other applications of the Blockchain beyond digital currency may be more important still. I've seen them lecture about using the Blockchain for property records. Havin...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 121
Views: 7356

Re: Bitcoin

What do you think about Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies? Investing or gambling? Cryptocurrency is the future of money. Our lives will be recorded as a series of transactions written in The Blockchain. The Blockchain is public and can be read by anyone. The Blockchain is permanent and will persist long...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

I guess I am asking, why does bitcoin have to be a ledger? Why can't it just be like a ticket that says IOU 5 BTC. Look at the concept of Double spending . Let's say you duplicate your 5 BTC IOU, and then you cash it in at one spot, then 1 hour later, you cash in the duplicate somewhere else. How d...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

:!: Did anyone else not know that is a Transaction Ledger. I did not know that. Did you also not know that those green pieces of paper in your wallet, the ones with the pictures of dead presidents on them, are part of a distributed transaction ledger? Ron What? I thought those were like IOU's. Like...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

So I learned that bitcoin is based on this thing called a Blockchain. Blockchain is just a way to make an Immutable Ledger , i.e. a ledger that no one can tamper with. Actually, if someone tampers with the Ledger by changing an earlier entry, it is easily detected because every block contains the ha...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Does Bitcoin pay dividends? If not, then why not? No. Because that's not how the code works. The code is the bare minimum to enable a decentralized record keeping system that cannot be easily tampered with - any other behavior would have to be added on after the fact. But there is no central author...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

So I'm finding out that Blockchain is a new powerful technology that can be used for lots of things beyond cryptocurrency. Blockchain is supposed to disrupt every area business and commerce. I never heard of this stuff before today. There are numerous Ted Talks on YouTube about Blockchain. Blockchai...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

So what is Bitcoin? Here is the surprising answer. Bitcoin is nothing more than a Transaction Ledger . For example, if you ever used an accounting program like gnucash, with a series of transactions, it's basically like that. Except that the transactions are signed with a digital signature for secur...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Ok, one last post about the value of 1 Bitcoin, then back to learning what it is and how it works. I can say for sure that the value of 1 BTC is 1000 milliBTC. Oh, we want the value in some other units like beers or USD or Euros? This page shows the current Market Price= $4106.43. (Plus the historic...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

Re: What is Bitcoin?

As investors, we want to answer this one too: Why does bitcoin have value? That's certainly an important question for anyone looking to buy or sell bitcoin. When those KhanAcademy lessons were uploaded in May 2013, 1 BTC = ~ $100 Today, four years later (August 2017) 1 BTC = over $4,000 Why it is $...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 113
Views: 7278

What is Bitcoin?

There has been a lot of buzz about this thing called Bitcoin. Lately the Market Price of 1 Bitcoin has topped $4,000. Apparently a lot of people have made millions by buying and holding bitcoin. So I decided it was time to see what Bitcoin is all about. Google searching "what is bitcoin" gives 115 m...
by grayfox
Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?
Replies: 71
Views: 7242

Re: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?

Just wondering... with Jack Bogle predicting a 4% stock market return over the next decade, I was just wondering what bogleheads were doing with their portfolios to increase their returns. Are people investing a little more in more riskier assets like small caps and emerging markets? What else can ...
by grayfox
Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 15788

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I know lots of people who are under 50 and say they are retired. Maybe a dozen of them? All of them openly tell people they are retired and have never mentioned any problems from that openness. How does the resentfulness of a random stranger one meets while travelling the world in early retirement ...
by grayfox
Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 15788

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

One other piece of advice from that guy I knew who retired at 44: Don't say you are retired until after age 60. Before 60, say you are self-employed. So when traveling around he world for months at a time, and people wonder how you could afford to do that without working, well, he was self employed,...
by grayfox
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 15788

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

Divided and Conquer. 0. Divided the problem in two parts: Year 1-30 ( Early Retirement Period ) and Year 30-End ( Normal Retirement Period ). 1. Solve the first part with 30-year TIPS ladder. Using TIPS ladder spreadsheet with real interest rate from 1/1/2017 this would cost $8,134,780. The actual c...
by grayfox
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 15788

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I would appreciate some advice on my current situation: I recently sold my company and now have $11.4M in investable assets - $300k in Roth IRA and $11.1M in taxable accounts (mostly money market at the moment). I have now early retired at 37, probably will get married next year, and then have 2-3 ...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not enough US market listings?
Replies: 14
Views: 1662

Re: Not enough US market listings?

Interesting article in the Economist this week about the decline in the number of US listings. In particular since 1997 or so the number of publicly listed companies has declined by half or so - from about 10000 to 5000. Multiple factors are in play - delistings of companies taken private, mergers ...
by grayfox
Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”
Replies: 21
Views: 2490

Re: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”

I personally agree that value matters, and personally invest that way, but time horizon does matter when looking at this stuff. The longer your horizon, the less of an effect initial value has on returns. Yes. I've looked into this and came to the same conclusion. And it makes sense logically. Imag...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3583

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

OK, I found some of the data I was looking for. On page 57 Change in endowment net assets for fiscal year ended June 30 (thousands of dollars) 1 Net Assets, beginning of year 25,571,590 100.00 2 Investment Income 542,272 2.12 3 Net Appreciation 210,958 0.82 4 Total Investment Return 753,230 2.95 5 C...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3583

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

There is more detail on Contributions on page 25 ($ in thousands) 2016 2015 Operating Contributions 180,796 263,019 Non-Operating Contributions 254,380 138,521 It looks too complicated for me to figure out the dollar amount of expenses that were paid. Maybe an accountant can figure it out, and tell ...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3583

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

The closest answers you might get would be in the University's annual report, which contains CPA audited financial statements and notes. I've found it for you here . A quick look at the notes don't tell me exactly what the fees were, but one may be able to figure it out if you cross reference their...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3583

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

I'm looking at page 2 Endowment Highlights. It shows 2016 2015 Market Value $25,408.6 $25,572.1 Return 3.4% 11.5% Spending $1,152.8 1082.5 Operating Budget Revenues $3,472.4 $3,297.7 Endowment Percentage 33.2% 32.8% I read that there are 70,000 Yale alumni who are solicited for donations every year....
by grayfox
Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I suppose by 2010, emergency cash funds had been depleted and 401k funds are being used to fund living expenses. 2015 was a difficult Market year and Retiring Boomers are withdrawing from the job market, stopping 401k contributions, and taking distributions. IMO.Further, Millennial's investing inco...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Here's another piece of the puzzle: https://s29.postimg.org/3vzemo8tj/Captura_de_pantalla_2016_12_15_a_las_5_22_55_PM.png 1980: 4.6 million U.S. Households own mutual funds 2000: 48.6 million U.S. Households own mutual funds. The number of Households that own mutual funds was multiplied by 10x over ...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Taking-In $2 Billion a Day in New Cash
Replies: 30
Views: 5438

Re: Vanguard Taking-In $2 Billion a Day in New Cash

I have been looking at Mutual Fund cashflows. The dollar amount of Inflow and Outflow to Mutual Funds is enormous. From the ICI 2016 Factbook, Tables 18, 19, 20: (pages 189, 190, 191) Net New Cashflow for 2015 Type Inflow Outflow Net Percent (billions of dollars) Equity 2,009.5 2,086.3 -76.9 -3.75% ...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4388

Re: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns

There might be some truth in there but he doesn't show the alternative neither. It seems to me that all he is saying is that there are too many buyers in the market, and expensive investing would have preventing a flood of individual investor. Isn't most of the money on the market institutional any...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

The previous chart shows Net New Cashflow for Equity, Hybrid and Bond Funds combined. I thought that I'd drill down into the cashflow for Equity Mutual Funds. This is from Table 18 from ICI 2016 Factbook page 189. Inflow is New Sales + Exchange Sales. Outflow is Regular Redemptions + Exchange Redemp...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Ok, my model is a steady $30 billlion per month net inflow to mutual funds from working investors. That works out to +$360 billion per year. What were the actual cash flow numbers? I'm looking at ICI 2016 Facebook page 30 Developments in Mutual Fund Flows . Figure 2.3 Net New Cash Flow to Mutual Fun...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

So here is my model of what happens: Contributions Working-investor collects a paycheck every two weeks or bimonthly. I'll just assume he gets paid once per month. 401(k) contribution is automatically deducted from each paycheck and sent to mutual fund company. The rest of paycheck is direct deposit...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: advice on where to put money at age 55 to secure savings in the event of market crash
Replies: 35
Views: 4119

Re: advice on where to put money at age 55 to secure savings in the event of market crash

I am a 51 year old attorney. My goal is to retire from the practice at age 59 1/2. I am a conservative investor but have saved a lot over the years. I am happy with a lower return and have based my future on socking away my earnings. ... Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks. Floor + Upside = Lia...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I am identifying 2 groups in the U.S.: 1. Non-Investing Class. Those who, for whatever reason, don't invest in stocks and bonds. Reasons could be 1. No income 2. Do not have a good job with benefits and a retirement plan. Or just too low-paying to be able to save and invest. 3. Simply choose not to ...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Yeah, and you aren't going to determine that in any meaningful way by cobbling together unrelated data points and making assertions that don't fit the actual data. If you had followed the source of that chart you would learn that 91 million individuals owned mutual funds - so it bears no connection...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I found this source of retirement market data: ICI Fact Book . They have Investment Company Fact books for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016. The 2016 Book has 2015 Facts on the page 2: 54.9 million households own funds 93.1 million individuals own funds 44.1% of households own funds Median mutual fund assets ...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I mean you asserted that one third of this country is living hand to mouth in low wage jobs - I think that requires a little more justification. Living hand-to-mouth means that you spend all your income and have nothing left for savings. I should not be too hard to find some statistics that shows h...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3697

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Even if it is true, the magnitude of the buyers and sellers is more important to market dynamics than the number of individuals involved so what would this tell you about anything? Government statisticians collect data, summarize and report. To some, it is pure white noise. Others believe that ther...