Search found 4723 matches

by grayfox
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

The problem with Nominal measurements is that they are made with a yardstick that grow and shrinks. Suppose you measure the length of a football field one year and it measures 100.0 yards. One year later you measure the field again and it measures 105.0 yards. The Nominal length of the field grew by...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 17
Views: 1512

Re: GMO forecast

It's at least interesting to browse through GMO's successive forecasts (from Google image search "GMO 7 year asset class forecast). Even in 2010, when this bull market was still a calf, they gave US large cap a 4,7% expected real return. For the S&P 500 (US large cap), in the 7 years that followed ...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

It's the other way around: real is equal to nominal plus CPI changes. The real values are calculated from the nominal values plus CPI changes. But that's only because the nominal values are what is measured. The independent variables are the 1) real amounts, e.g. 100 widgets, and 2) the price chang...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

However, I'm not sure that I buy the real return argument, even though CAPE has had stronger correlations with real returns than nominal. I'm not aware of anyone who has identified how CAPE should have anything to do with inflation, and a real return is merely a nominal one less inflation. There is...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Even Shiller doesn't claim that CAPE is historically accurate for forecasting returns much beyond ten years. Kitces found that whether valuations were historically low or high only impacted the next 30 years of returns by +/- 1%, hardly worth considering. P/E10 has the best predictive accuracy at 2...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Present Value of an Annuity or Social Security Stream
Replies: 9
Views: 782

Re: Present Value of an Annuity or Social Security Stream

You have to know what discount rate to use. Assuming that it is guaranteed by the U.S. government , you can use Treasury Rates. I looked up Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates . 1. As a first cut, I tried using one discount rate for all years. I picked 2.90% which is the 10-year rate. Discount Rate = 2...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

It sounds like Bitcoin needs the Lightning Network to become a useful payment system.

But does the Lightning Network need Bitcoin?
by grayfox
Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Satoshi's original paper: Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System What about bitcoin as a payment system? This article shows what happened to that idea: Bitcoin: Big in investing, but still lousy for buying a sandwich Two sales using bitcoin in 4 years. Bitcoin failed as a payment system.
by grayfox
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

I've done some further thinking about forecasting stock returns. My prediction is for a 16% nominal return from S&P 500 in the very very long term.
by grayfox
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Here is a cool visualization:

Bitcoin Cash vs. Bitcoin Core Live Transaction Visualizer

This is very clever.
by grayfox
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6534

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

I look at this a few years ago. Using a simple model, I have found that I can quite accurately forecast 10-year return of S&P 500. Here is what my simple model forecasts for current valuation: PE10.2028 24.10 32.67 41.24 G.E10.10 -2.63% -3.8 -1.1 1.0 -0.50% -1.7 1.0 3.2 1.63% 0.4 3.2 5.4 3.76% 2.5 5...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12912

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

If war did increase real economic output, why wait around for a war? We could reinstitute the draft, build new weapons factories and ship yards, and bomb the desert in Nevada, or maybe the ocean, into submission. We could even build entire cities to destroy if bombing the desert doesn't raise outpu...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3209

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

Bingo! People have a lot invested in their worldview. They finally come to terms with ideas like EMH, failure of market timing, stock picking, etc. and implement their plan. Everything is settled once and for all. Then someone throws a wrench in the works. People get angry and just want the thread l...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3209

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

Thanks for the link to the prior thread. I find it interesting and sad how many people react to different ideas with the idea of "debunking" them right from the start. It goes to show that prejudice is very real in the financial world. I see it here all the time. Subsequent work done by Clare et al...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?
Replies: 57
Views: 3209

Re: Does Shiller PE imply negative returns?

Are there any good studies, preferably peer-reviewed, backtesting or running simulations to compare different CAPE based strategies (for asset allocation stocks vs. say bank CDs or Intermediate or short Treasuries) against buy and hold all stocks? Yes, this one is a peer-reviewed paper that examine...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water Leak from shower stall - how to detect
Replies: 16
Views: 1219

Re: Water Leak from shower stall - how to detect

Hello Friends, We have a master bathroom with a shower stall directly over our family room. The bathroom / stall is tiled. We see spots on the ceiling in the room below but when we touch the ceiling, it is not wet. My suspicion is there is a slow leak that is causing the problem. What is the best w...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility as a cause of volatility?
Replies: 18
Views: 1144

Re: Volatility as a cause of volatility?

I don't know what the current volatility is, or where to look it up. But there is something called the CBOE Volatility Index VIX which is expected volatility over the next 30 days. What is the 'VIX - CBOE Volatility Index' VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volati...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

2/1/2018 16:55 UTC

BTC is sinking further. I just checked on Coin Market Cap $9,110.08

On Trading view 8852.53

On GDAX BTC/USD 8,871

Prices are changing swiftly.
by grayfox
Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Bitcoin in Freefall! :D https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD Bitcoin started the day at 11176. It was under $10,000 a little while ago. Right now at $10,040. There is a lot of discussion lately about Tether being created out of thin air and that it was used to push up the pric...
by grayfox
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1272

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

Lots of people are freaking out about the current high value of CAPE - 34.75 last I saw. We all know that you can't time the market using CAPE because CAPE doesn't predict short term market moves -- or does it? Here's what I'm wondering. Let's say that you are a disciple of market timing using movi...
by grayfox
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY do wireless routers need periodic reboots?
Replies: 117
Views: 8693

Re: WHY do wireless routers need periodic reboots?

So this morning my tablet wouldn't connect to my Wifi, and I rebooted the router, and fixed it. It's in the folkways, it's accepted, it's not a big deal... but "everybody knows" that wireless routers need to be rebooted "every few weeks." Why? I don't get it. It's firmware. It's not constantly load...
by grayfox
Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12912

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

I'm not worried. The opposite. I'm cheering on the Fed to raise rates. Rates have been too low for too long. Effective Federal Funds Rate For Dec-2017, it shows Fed Funds Rate = 1.30%. Right now Vanguard Prime MMF is yielding 1.45%. I would like to see Prime MMF get up to 3+% yield. Here is the FOMC...
by grayfox
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

According to https://coinmarketcap.com/ Tether is the 24th largest cryptocurrency and there is $1.6 billion worth of Tether. 24 Tether $1,621,019,567 $1.00 $2,995,480,000 1,618,090,823 USDT * If you believe them, then someone has 1.6 billion USD on deposit in a bank someone to back this up. But they...
by grayfox
Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 Tax Act signed - multiple threads allowed
Replies: 2
Views: 3464

Re: 2018 Tax Act signed - multiple threads allowed

I will have to look into the new tax laws. Which are introductory threads?

I'm going to start with this article on Motley Fool:

Your Complete Guide to the 2018 Tax Changes
by grayfox
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 62346

Re: Valuations Matter

I've posted multiple times that valuations do not matter, because they are not actionable. Trying to make moves on valuations is a dangerous game. So grayfox, did you take any action back in 2014? You know back when Now right now, U.S. stocks are about at all time highs. My portfolio is at an all t...
by grayfox
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I'm shocked. Shocked! :shock: Shocked to learn that there is Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem Abstract We identify and analyze the impact of suspicious trading activity (STA) on the Mt. Gox Bitcoin currency exchange between February and November 2013. We discuss two distinct STA periods i...
by grayfox
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exit strategy for bitcoin
Replies: 72
Views: 5177

Re: Exit strategy for bitcoin

I bought about 0,3% of my liquid worth in bitcoin some time ago (it was because of FOMO really, and I was aware that it was just a gamble, but I was also encouraged by seeing that people like Ben Carlson, Joshua Brown etc had also bought some bitcoin to 'experiment' as Brown put it). I remember Jas...
by grayfox
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I'm seeing the old Bitcoin BTC trading at less than $10,000 :shock:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symb ... P%3ABTCUSD
by grayfox
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So you are saying that in addition to everything else, cryptocurrency users need to consider at least the possibility of a DOS attack intentionally directed at a particular currency? Grand. Now, who might want to do a thing like that? All cryptocurrencies are susceptible to spam attacks. It goes wi...
by grayfox
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

** Update on Bitcoin Cash spam attack. ** https://fork.lol/tx/txs See the BCH increase on transactions over past two days from about 250 transactions per block to over 100 per block? (See blue line) That was not the result of a sudden mass adoption by new users. The network was flooded with 1 sat/B ...
by grayfox
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 183
Views: 22300

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

And, meanwhile... before someone says "Well, Bitcoin isn't really supposed to be for buying things, you should use Bitcoin Cash for that..." Bitcoin Cash: Big blocks fail to improve user experience According to Verret and others, however, the format is already failing, as Bitcoin’s smaller blocks a...
by grayfox
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6599

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Bengen 2017 Here is a reddit Ask Me Anything with Bill Bengen from 2017: https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/6vazih/im_bill_bengen_and_i_first_proposed_the_4_safe/ Question: What is the current stock allocation your research is based on? Whole-US? world? does it track any partic...
by grayfox
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6599

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Bergen 1994 BTW, here are a couple of a bullet points from the 1994 Bengen article: Assuming a minimum requirement of 30 years of portfolio longevity, a first-year withdrawal of 4 percent, followed by inflation-adjusted withdrawals in subsequent years, should be safe. OK It is appropriate to advise...
by grayfox
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6599

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

I feel very fortunate having found Bogleheads. When I started studying investing. My 1st question was what kind of portfolio do I want? My 2nd question was how do I get the money out? My 3rd question was can I live off of the portfolio someday? With the help of the Bogleheads & research (reading th...
by grayfox
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 17765

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

That's basically the story of how to invest in Silver and Gold, the physical metal not the paper ETFs. One other thing worth mentioning is Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio. If you recall, this has 1/4 in Stocks, Gold, long-term Treasuries and Cash. If you want to go with the Permanent Portfolio an...
by grayfox
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6599

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Back in 1999, I was especially interested in the subject of how to take withdrawals. I had given my notice the week after Christmas/New Years 1998 holiday. So how do you start withdrawing? Now every investing book tells you how to invest for retirement. E.g. Random Walk Down Wall street said S&P 500...
by grayfox
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6599

Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

There is another thread that talks someone retiring in 2000 and using a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate. How about someone retiring in 1999 using an 8% withdrawal rate? This thread was posted on the Motley Fool message board Retire Early CampFIRE on December 7, 1999. An 8% withdrawal rate??? P...
by grayfox
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34905

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I'm reading through the thread and only part way so this may have already been answered. In the late 90's I was reading the old Motley Fool forum started by intercst (one of the elder statesman of the "modern" early retirement "movement"). That was probably the central FIRE forum at the time before...
by grayfox
Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34905

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I'm reading through the thread and only part way so this may have already been answered. In the late 90's I was reading the old Motley Fool forum started by intercst (one of the elder statesman of the "modern" early retirement "movement"). That was probably the central FIRE forum at the time before...
by grayfox
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 17765

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

With all the preliminary stuff out of the way its time to get down to brass tacks. Suppose you want to have 10% of your portfolio in Precious Metals. 5% in Silver and 5% in Gold. What would you have to buy? Here are some ideas for portfolios from $1,000 to $100 million. Portfolio 5% Silver Gold $1,0...
by grayfox
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 1620

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

http://i59.tinypic.com/2eyf9cp.jpg https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2038625#p2038625 Look at the bottom chart. This shows the "optimal stock allocation" if you knew all the returns in advance. Notice that it is 100% stocks for many of the years. Then the gray line in the upper chart...
by grayfox
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 17765

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

There are dozens, if not hundreds, of Precious Metal products for sale at the bullion dealers. Which ones would you buy? Here's one list of silver and gold products you can use for investing in Precisious Metals. They go from lowest to highest priced. I got the prices from APMEX. The prices were cur...
by grayfox
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 1620

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

Bogleheads.....The recent (and currently running) willthrill81 thread made me wonder if something like this exists. Is there any data anywhere that shows a rolling maximum withdrawal percentage for the last century or so? We know a 4% is 'safe' - you survive pretty much any down period. We get that...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34905

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Again you can use any of the variations that we have been talking about and been fine. OP just happened to use a common portfolio (and I don't know about you but I was investing internationally in 1997. It was pretty common knowledge the diversifying was a good idea. Granted it was an active fund) ...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34905

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I bet a lot of retirees had most/all of their money in Wellington, so I don’t think it’s worth calling 60/40 hindsight bias. In fact, I bet Wellington did better than 60/40 TSM/TBM. Maybe some people had Wellesley or Wellington. But I don't recall the SWR folks recommending them. That's why these q...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34905

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

60/40 is a pretty standard retirement portfolio that is used in all the studies. 30-50% of stocks in international is also pretty standard. Those were assumptions that people were making in the 90s. Hindsight bias would be saying go 30% SV, 30% REIT, and 15% gold for your equity allocation like in ...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34905

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

A 50/50 split between U.S. and international isn't hindsight bias; that's about the global cap weight. An all U.S. portfolio would be subject to home country bias. And I've already demonstrated that an all U.S. portfolio outperformed the 50/50 split anyway. Radar's analysis was not the same as mine...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34905

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

First, let's assume that they used a 60/40 portfolio, where half of their equities were in VTSMX (U.S. stocks) and half in VGTSX (international equities), and the bonds were in VBMFX (total U.S. bond market). Let's also assume that their starting portfolio was $1M. Their withdrawals occur at year e...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 17765

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Some people find that safe desposit boxes are not quite so safe: Anything can happen. There can be fires, floods, bank heists, clerical errors, insider theft, etc. Some people recommend dividing your golden hoard (horde?) into three parts and storing each in a different place. Maybe have one box in...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 17765

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

prudent wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:10 am
Just to add a little info re:SDBs, the bank has no liability for the contents. People need to carry their own insurance.
Where do you get insurance for a Safe Deposit Box? Would that be something that you add onto homeowner's insurance or renters insurance?