Search found 4817 matches

by grayfox
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Final conclusion: CPI, etc measure price level for some market basket. There are many market baskets.
12 month change is the change in price level of market basket.

:arrow: Change in price level is not the same as the inflation rate.
by grayfox
Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Total Cost of Car Ownership over 10 years
Replies: 32
Views: 2044

Re: Total Cost of Car Ownership over 10 years

In 1998, I bought brand new 1998 Jeep Cherokee for $20,000 + tax and fees. Paid cash. Drove it until 2008. Had 180,120 miles on odometer. In 2008, Carmax bought it for $1500 cash. I kept track of all car expenses: gasoline, insurance, licensing and registration, maintenance, repair, parking, tickets...
by grayfox
Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Perks of Owning Certain Individual Stocks
Replies: 26
Views: 2319

Re: Perks of Owning Certain Individual Stocks

I went to my first shareholders meeting when I was about 13 or 14. I didn't own any shares, but my friend did and I went with him. The company was a real-estate developer/builder. They built skyscrapers, etc. When we got there, there was only a half dozen executives in a conference room and they wer...
by grayfox
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 17
Views: 1049

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

From "Uncloaking Campbell and Shiller’s CAPE: A Comprehensive Guide to its Construction and Use". I looked up that paper . Thanks. I did not realize that how complex is the subject of CAPE. I've never seen equations 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 before. I always thought expected return was just 1/CAPE, but t...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Then and Now: 1980 vs 2018
Replies: 12
Views: 1564

Re: Then and Now: 1980 vs 2018

Back in 1980, an average working stiff just 2-1/2 years out of school could buy a house for 2x his annual salary. This was not the exception, but the rule. Everyone I worked with did the same. Two or three years out of school, people were buying their first house. Even with interest rates of 12-3/8%...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Then and Now: 1980 vs 2018
Replies: 12
Views: 1564

Re: Then and Now: 1980 vs 2018

Where are the housing prices from? Location can skew the data greatly. It seems 'off' to me to say that a median 'rural' house is $318k. $200-250k seems more accurate to me, but maybe my numbers are off. I also question the truck pricing. The 1980 truck is bare bones, no options. A 2018 F150 is far...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Then and Now: 1980 vs 2018
Replies: 12
Views: 1564

Then and Now: 1980 vs 2018

Comparing 2018 wages and prices with 1980. This is just anecdotal information, but it was similar for many back then. Man graduated from university in 1977. In 1980, he made $23,000 per year. In January 1980, he bought a house for 47,500, 2x annual income. 25% down payment. Mortgage interest rate wa...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

There sure are a lot of measures of inflation. Two more: 1. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 12-month PCE Inflation = 1.8% for Feb-2018 (CPI-U showed 2.2%) 2. Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding Food and Energy (chain-type price index) Personal consumption ...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

delamer wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:20 pm

That is exactly what the CPI measures — changes in prices. The CPI is not a “level.” It is an index that, by definition, measures the rate of change between two time periods.
Do you recall Distance = Rate x Time problems?

CPI-U Index is the Distance and Inflation is the Rate.
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

I don’t understand what you are trying to say here:”Sure you can sample prices and get the current prices. But prices are changing all the time.” The example I gave. The supermarket changes the price of strawberries every Wednesday. If you sample the price on Tuesday at 9PM, $2.50 On Wednesday morn...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Just to clarify, I am asking how accurate or precise we know the rate of change in CPI-U. e.g. 21jul2010, BLS reported 12-month change +1.05%. How close is that to true inflation? At the same time BPP reported +2.83%, +1.78% higher than BLS. What do I conclude? That the uncertainty for 12-month chan...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

If you disagree with the BLS's weightings, data, or methodology, all that's fine and it's published. If you live, for example, in Juneau AK, the price of wild-caught Pacific salmon might be, I'm making up unrealistic examples, $1.00 per pound. If in Atlanta GA it costs $2.00 per pound, what are con...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:32 pm

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its weightings, its data, and its methodology. Anybody who wants to can read, calculate, and criticize them.

What do you expect CPI to measure?

PJW
Consumer Prices. Your response seems like a non-sequitor.
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

I think that measuring inflation is not so simple. You have prices and CPI-U which are levels. We want to know inflation which is a rate of change over time. It means taking differences, a.k.a derivatives, which are noisy. Sure you can sample prices and get the current prices. But prices are changin...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Which of the different inflation rates you mention would you use for i to calculate the real return RR? Should everyone use the same i or a different i? Your personal inflation rate is the only one that matters for your personal income and expenditures. Imagine your only expenditure is food and you...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Money has no intrinsic value, it is worth what you can trade it for. When people put inflation in the context of the changing value of money, they are really talking about the average change in monetary value of the goods and services that you could buy with your money. There are different inflatio...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

How accurately can we define "inflation"? On the Origin and Evolution of the Word Inflation Ron Wow! That opens up a can of worms! I think that the ideas in that article can explain why all these price indexes show different values for inflation. It's because they are just showing the price changes...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

adam1712 wrote: "We all spend dollars so we all have the same inflation rate." Bravo! I am going to take that as an axiom: Axiom 1. For any currency, e.g. dollars, Euros, there is only one inflation rate. All the differences have to do with a one's habits, spending choices, timing of purchases, loca...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

I'm of the opinion we all spend dollars so we all have the same inflation rate. Where you choose to live and what you choose to spend your money on are spending choices. But this all comes down to semantics. I would propose your year to year change in spending depends on three factors: Change in an...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

https://i.imgur.com/UlLErLs.jpg Source: FRED That FRED graph looks wrong. Click through for the original chart and data. It shows CPI-U Change from year ago was 5.745% in March 2018. ?!? BLS reports showed only 2.4%. Did FRED made an error? Somebody explain how they are showing 5.745% change from y...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

However, calculating one's personal rate of inflation is not so easy, as I have come to discover. Alas, I am probably overthinking it. :oops: It is not easy. I have accurate records of my spending for every year. I save all my receipts and enter everything into gnucash and libreoffice. I know how m...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

BHs are often interested in "Real" returns. Take the nominal return and adjust for inflation. OK, which measure of inflation? It's always the 12-month change in CPI-U. Is that really the best choice to adjust for inflation? Everyone using the exact same inflation adjustment? Based on some made-up ba...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 86
Views: 9475

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Much of Yale's holdings are in illiquid assets that rarely trade. The valuation must involve a good deal of estimation. I wonder how reliable their reported returns and performance actually are. That's what I've been saying for years. If there is no market price, then you use a model price. With th...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Here is another inflation measure The Billion Prices Project Looking at the bottom chart, US Online Annual Inflation Rate. Some of the biggest differences I see Date.............Pricestats (blue) ...... BLS (red) ..... Pricestats-BLS 21jul2010....... 2.83 ................ 1.05 ................ +1.78...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

A big issue is how to measure changes in quality. Compare a car from the 1970s to one today. Today's car is more expensive. Part of that is from inflation. Part of that is that today's car are larger, safer, more fuel-efficient, have more features (like GPS), are more durable, etc. From year to yea...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

More inflation measures from BLS: CPI-W. This used to annually adjust social security benefits. CPI-Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (Current Series) U.S. All Items +2.433% Northeast Region +2.043% Midwest Region +1.947% South Region +2.328% West Region +3.336% NY +1.874% DC +1.834% CHI +1.69...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Consumer Price Index Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 14. Is the CPI the best measure of inflation? Various indexes have been devised to measure different aspects of inflation. Inflation has been defined as a process of continuously rising prices or, equivalently, of a continuously falling value of...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

OK, I see below Table 7. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, March 2018, 12-month analysis table Footnote 2 A statistic’s margin of error is often expressed as its point estimate plus or minus two standard errors. For example, if a CPI ca...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Since this is the BHs board, we can neither add not subtract the politics. What I recall from math class, when a number is given to 1 decimal place, without any error bars, that implies some precision. 2.4 would imply that the number lies in the range 2.35 to 2.45. No? My question is: How accurately...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 83
Views: 3092

How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

Looking at the latest (Apr 13, 2018) inflation report at the Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation report: Consumer Price Index rose 2.4 percent over the year ending March 2018 They show a chart with 12-month percentage change in Consumer Price Index, not seasonally adjusted. All ...
by grayfox
Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 9676

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

^^^Someone messed up the quotes in the previous post^^^ I disagree. Any command issued by a person or entity to which YOU ascribe authority -- such as your boss, your spouse -- is fiat. The government is simply the most obvious entity that issues decrees. In the case of Bitcoin, the authority is the...
by grayfox
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 9676

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

I don't think Bitcoin can be called a fiat currency. According to vocabulary.com : From the Latin for "let it be done," the word fiat is a binding edict issued by a person in command. It can gain an almost Biblical aura of authority, like a movie Pharaoh saying, "So let it be written, so let it be d...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total return vs dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: Total return vs dividends

I understand that in theory, focusing on total return and selling shares to generate cash is just as good as or perhaps better than relying on dividends for cash flow in retirement. However, I’m having a mental block on what this means in practice. Spending only the dividend vs. spending total retu...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 1992

Re: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?

Would you believe that I just got selected to head the CalSTRS, with $225 billion in assets? Well, not really, but if you were in charge, would you fire all the investment advisors and just use a three-fund portfolio? Does is make a difference if other people's financial well-being is on the line? ...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 62
Views: 4819

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

I am with nisiprius. It seems people here don't know what the term "technical analysis" means. One guy linked to an article about quants. That's not technical analysis. And Larry is not a technical analyst. If you don't know what "technical analysis" and "fundamental analysis" is, you should read A ...
by grayfox
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 330
Views: 21608

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

Here's something hilarious: Mark Zuckerberg Called People Who Handed Over Their Data "Dumb F****" This was reported way back in 2010 by BusinessInsider.com: Well, These New Zuckerberg IMs Won't Help Facebook's Privacy Problems That's about the time I signed with Facebook... and handed over all my da...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns
Replies: 178
Views: 11842

Re: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns

I only have anecdotal information. For example, Auto plants in Ohio that employed tens of thousands closed when factory was moved overseas. I could drive you by former Ford factories with empty parking lots, with chain and padlock on gate that have been rusting for 15 years. All those assembly line ...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns
Replies: 178
Views: 11842

Re: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns

Interesting. The visual below helps put your point in perspective. Pretty impressive, to me. Are there other explanations besides 2008? The RE crash seems the obvious suspect. https://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1948_2018_all_period_M02_data.gif Angst, I have no...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

That may be the case, given the 2009/2010 timeframe of the increases. But then, even 2017 is reported to have Buybacks of 519.4 Billion (2.28%) while dividend paid out were 418.9 Billion (1.84%). See Figures 1 and 2 in Stock Market Indicators S&P 500 Yields: Earnings, Dividends, & Buybacks . Yet the...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

I'm thinking that the 100s of billions in Buybacks must be Gross Buybacks and not Not Buybacks. Found: Boglehead thread on Buybacks: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=224182 This article linked in the thread implies that the numbers reported do not account for New Shares Issued: Are B...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

According to Deutsche Bank About 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth comes from buybacks on average since 2012 So of the 3.7% earnings growth, .9% is due to buybacks and 2.8% is due to earnings growth. Going back to the original decomposition it means: Of the 8% annualised returns 2.8% due to "real" earnings...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 25, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

BTW, the reason I started this thread is because I am seeing posts about how the predictions from Bernstein or Bogle was completely off. "Bernstein predicted 3% return and we got 8.29% return. He was off by 2.5x!" First of all Bernstein predicted a real return and the 8.29% was nominal return. Adjus...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

CAPE can go down without necessarily being a drag on returns, e.g. by 2022 the extreme earnings depression of 2008-2009 will not be in the numbers anymore. I think CAPE is often presented as an objective tool when in fact it is highly sensitive to earnings swings that may be atypical going forward....
by grayfox
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

This is not that complicated.

If CAPE expands by 3% per year to 43, it will add about +3% per year to total return.
If CAPE stays the same at 32, it will add nothing to total return.
If CAPE contracts by 3% per year back to 24, it will subtract -3% per year from total return.
by grayfox
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Re: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWR1Mfx2mkvw/v0/-1x-1.png Total yield on the S&P 500 is around 5% a year. Throw in your ~3% for earning expansion and you've accounted for the entirety of the ~8% annualised return without any need to talk about "P/E expansion" like it is motivated b...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?
Replies: 15
Views: 2119

Whence S&P500 Return past 10 years?

I did a quick calculation to find the source of S&P500 return over the 10 years from 12/31/2007 to 12/31/2017. From PortfolioVisualizer I see $10,000 grew to $22,185 for VFINX. That would be TR = 121.85% or 8.29% annualized. (nominal) Decompose TR = CAPITAL RETURN + INCOME RETURN I got these numbers...
by grayfox
Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 13448

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

BTW much of impact of age discrimination is not in the "getting laid off" part, it is in the "finding a new job" part. Most jobs which are posted are for 3 - 5 years or 5 - 10 years experience (especially for individual contributors). If you have more experience you run the risk of being deemed "ov...
by grayfox
Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 13448

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

Folks, Please adjust my numbers accordingly dependent on your own circumstances. 1) Do not assume that you will be fully-employed continuously until retirement age. Make a reasonable assumption and save a fixed percentage of your gross income. I have no job security. I save 30+%. You should decide ...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 330
Views: 21608

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

I also deleted all my pictures and posts about 2 years ago. I tried to delete the account, but couldn't figure out how. I don't think there is a link on the site to the delete button. So I changed my Facebook user name to a fake name. Here's the funny thing: Somehow, my iPhone also changed my name t...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 103
Views: 14403

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

I've happily watched interest rates on cash come back to life. My "high yield" savings has been with Discover for a long time and is currently at 1.5%. I keep watching Vanguard's Prime Money Market fund VMMXX and its yield seems like it has become the first to move up, in comparison to the FDIC sav...