Search found 4441 matches

by grayfox
Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trouble with Macroeconomics by Paul Romer
Replies: 6
Views: 658

Re: Trouble with Macroeconomics by Paul Romer

I'm reading this paper https://paulromer.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/WP-Trouble.pdf by Paul Romer (Chief Economist and Vice President of the World Bank). I just wanted to share it with you and read your comments on it. Cheers Thanks for bringing this subject to our attention. Despite what some m...
by grayfox
Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8335

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

PE10 is hovering around 30. The only times these levels were reached before were the late 1920s and late 1990s. I realize feeling is subjective, but I recall the 2000 and 2008 and things just don't really "feel" like those times. I don't see similar warning articles by the usual permabear...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debate with friends on market timing, annuity, etc, thoughts?
Replies: 34
Views: 1764

Re: Debate with friends on market timing, annuity, etc, thoughts?

I knew a guy at work that sometimes invested that way. Normally he just invested in S&P500-like funds. But if a blue-chip company had problems, he would put a little money into them. Like back in the 1980s, many big NY banks like Chase Manhattan and Chemical Bank had lent too much money to South...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
Replies: 71
Views: 7015

Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.

I am new to this forum, and not a savvy investor. I am about to retire (1 month) and my strategy is to take the lump sum (~$2M) to invest and live off the interest, while preserving the principal to pass onto my heirs. I'm 61.5 years old. Any advice as to how I can get this accomplished, without pa...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WSJ:Are Taxes Lurking in Your Tax-Free Retirement Account?
Replies: 5
Views: 1459

Re: WSJ:Are Taxes Lurking in Your Tax-Free Retirement Account?

I recall that it was already known that Master Limited Partnerships MLPs were a tax problem in IRAs. Seem to recall that there was more than one class of Kinder Morgan with different symbols. I think the MLP was KMP and the other was KMI? The KMP went in your taxable account and KMI in IRA. Somethin...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

I like this green chart because it shows, in a condensed way, what happened with money invested at any time in the U.S. stocks market. You put money in, it went up and down, and there was a wide range of final outcome. But they were all good, as long as you stuck with it long enough. After 40 years,...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Finer details add information about how the market behaves at shorter timer periods, they do not add information about longer time scales. Good point. That sounds like a basic principle to keep in mind when dealing with market data. We can get more detail about in-between points, but it adds nothin...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

That is where you are engaging in a complete fallacy ignoring that overlapping periods don't contain nearly the information you want them to. Aside from the problem of not including enough major disruptions, there is also the problem that things just change over time and we have no good estimate of...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Not even close. No civil war, no lost major war, not even a real invasion, no colonization by a foreign power, no black death, not much potato blight, no Yellowstone eruption, insignificant climate change, no Chicxulub event, no singularity, no vacuum decay, and above all the axiom of choice has no...
by grayfox
Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

OK, no one wants to answer my question, so I will give my answer. 1. How many complete 40-year periods are shown in this chart? That is probably plotted using monthly data available from Yale Professor Robert Shiller. The first month is January 1871, so not until January 1911 is the first 40-year (4...
by grayfox
Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Three questions:

1. How many complete 40-year periods are shown in this chart?
2. How many i.i.d. 40-year random samples are there? **
3. What, if anything, does this chart of past history have to say about future U.S. stock returns.

** i.i.d. = independent and identically distributed
by grayfox
Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Rule No. 1. Never lose money. Rule No. 2. Never forget Rule No. 1 Well, with stocks, you can never say never. But let's say 99% chance that you will not lose money. That looks like at about 2 decades on the green feather chart. At about 3 decades, 99% chance of at least doubling your money. At about...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

There are all sorts of problems with drawing conclusions from this of course. Probably most importantly, everyone, eventually, has their final 10 year period, and their final 20 year period. Unless you have a huge safety margin, you could be toast in spite of lifelong diligence. Assuming you believ...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 08, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Brilliant! One can base their investing plan on that one chart. The worst return improved with longer periods. Notice that the worst return was at about 3 years, when you were down -75%. At 5 years, it was not uncommon to be down -50%. Even at 10 years, you were often down -25%. Only by 20 years cou...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's 2017 Economic and Market Outlook
Replies: 12
Views: 2140

Re: Vanguard's 2017 Economic and Market Outlook

On page 24, Figure II-5 compares Shiller’s CAPE multiple (for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index) with Vanguard’s proprietary fair-value CAPE estimate, which is based on the fundamental drivers of equity-market earnings yields, namely, interest rates and inflation expectations. Their chart shows CA...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 19
Views: 1107

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

OK, here are my conclusions: If you have 90 years of annual data and calculate returns over 80 10-year periods, there are 80 samples. Period. If you calculate the sample statistics, these are 100% valid summary statistics of what happened during that time. If you have higher sample-rate data, e.g. m...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 04, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 19
Views: 1107

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

In any case, as for how many 10-year returns there are, I don't think we even have 8. Isn't the definition something like: If the values in one sample affect the values in the other sample, then the samples are dependent. If "P/E at any given time is a fairly good predictor of what the market ...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 19
Views: 1107

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

A few years ago, I took a course in Econometrics where we calculated all manner of statistics about stock returns. There was one test for serial correlation that used the Autocorrelation Function**. The ACF finds the correlation of a time series with lagged versions of itself. The correlation values...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 19
Views: 1107

How many 10-Year Samples are there?

The stock market in the U.S. dates back to May 17, 1792 when 24 brokers signed an agreement under a Buttonwood tree outside of 68 Wall Street. That was 225 years ago, so, in theory we could look at historical U.S. stock market data going back over two centuries. As a practical matter, the early reco...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I was kind of wondering about that statement too as it doesn't seem right in any way and that procedure (dropping half) doesn't even make any sense, so I interpreted that as being a point about taking 20-year intervals (keeping every year) spaced 2 years apart rather than spaced 1 year apart. If sp...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

How about throwing out the odd years for S&P500 total return and replace with average of even years. 2007 5.48 2008 -36.55 2009 25.94 Average of 2007 and 2009 = +15.71. So replace -36.55 loss with +15.71 gain. The stock market crash of 2008/2009 is erased. Now, this is just 1-year return, but wh...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 02, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

The problem with overlapping periods is that it is equivalent to just duplicating data you already have. Here's an example, you can take your CAPE10 and 20yr forward prediction on every year, or on every odd year. However, we agree that the even years will be very similar to the simple average of t...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

We go to war with the information we have, not the information we wish we had. --General Grayfox, ret. Here is an example: Suppose there is a security A that is guaranteed to pay exactly $1 per year, forever. You can buy this today, Wednesday March 1, 2017 for $25, but the price fluctuates. You wil...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

This type of analysis gets very delicate (I work in a hedge fund and I know people who still get analyses like this wrong). At a first glance, you should not use overlapping periods, so you have less than 5 20-year data points from 1926, and only 14 10-year data points. Not enough to say anything m...
by grayfox
Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

To summarize: Before 1996, CAPE averaged about 15 and range was from about 5 to 25. 2017: CAPE average is now about 25 and range is now what, from 15 to 35? What was the average is now the low end? 2027: If the uptrend continues, CAPE average will be 30 and range from 20 to 40? :?: So what do Bogleh...
by grayfox
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Is the hockey stick chart the smoking gun that shows mean valuation has been rising? https://s21.postimg.org/cdlkfxnxz/chart.png image hosting 10mb limit Since 1996, the 30-year Simple Moving Average has been rising at a rate of by +4.7 per decade. On 1/1/2017 SMA30 was 24.7. If the uptrend continue...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

What percent was within +/-4% of 6.3%? To compare it to E10/P I didn't save that case. I would have to dig out the code and run it. I did these calculation back in 2015. If I get time to play with again, I would update with the latest Shiller Data.. I also might start earlier, like 1928. I arbitrar...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

What is CER at 20 years? Me, I just plan around getting a percent or two less than historical return, and I've been pleasantly surprised. CER at 20 years: 97% of the months had real return within +/-6% of 6.3% The outliers were at around 1962 (low) and 1980 (high). 1962, 20 years later was 1982. Yo...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

But for 20-year forecasts, the error bands are only about 4% for a 97% confidence level. Citation needed. I know you calculated this once, but I find it hard to believe that such a high confidence level is not in literature somewhere. There is no citation. I calculated it myself using Shiller's dat...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

A problem is that it would be very helpful to know future returns in order to figure our need to take risk and therefore our asset allocations, but there isn't any method of estimating future returns that is sufficiently reliable. Even the methods that have been the most reliable, such as p/e or CA...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Just for some food for thought, here's something some might not be aware of. The mean CAPE, using Shiller's inferior GAAP data, from 1993 to 2017 was 26.4, 58% higher than the mean from 1920 to 2017. The current CAPE is 29.34, about 11% higher than the last 25 year average but 75% above the 98 year...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

:?: There must be other factors that determine the level of CAPE, i.e. stock valuations. What are they? Here are some possible other factors: - We’re using data going back to 1881. Should $1 of earnings generated by Facebook be worth as much as $1 generated by Standard Oil, or Edison General Electr...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

So my question is: What drives changes in Valuation, i.e. CAPE? (Or simply: why is CAPE at the level it is at?) I will give two things that I think do NOT drive changes in CAPE: 1. Real Interest Rates. From the data I posted above, it looks like when real interest rates fall, rather than the Expecte...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Compare 2017 vs. 2007, one decade earlier. Date PE10 E10/P 10-YR ERP 01/01/2017 28.20 3.55 0.47 3.08 01/01/2007 27.21 3.68 2.38 1.30 Stock valuations were almost the same in both years, and therefore, Expected Return of Stocks was almost the same. The big difference is that 10-Year TIPS Yields fell ...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I looked at CAPE and the 10-Year TIPS Yield. Unfortunately, TIPS data only goes back to 2003. I calculated E10/P which is the expected real return on S&P500, and the difference between the 10-Year Yield and E10/P, which is the Expected Return Premium of stocks over the 10-Year TIPS. Date PE10 E1...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

grayfox Hope your post was in jest. One can never tell. But for the sake of assuming it wasn't you would have to be kidding. That is exactly what market forecasters do and they fail miserably because they are unpredictable factors, unpredictable events cause things to change. Larry So I take it tha...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much SP500 might have dropped in 2000 crash if no 911?
Replies: 3
Views: 435

Re: How much SP500 might have dropped in 2000 crash if no 911?

As I recall, events of 9-11 had short-lived effect on stock prices. S&P 500 had peak price of 1527.46 on 3/24/2000 Price Index fell to 1085.78 by 9/7/2001 After 9/11, it fell further to a low of 965.80 by 9/21/2001 But after that, the S&P began to recover. S&P 500 rose to 1166.16 by 3/15...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

What is needed is a better forecasting model than simply 1/CAPE, i.e. E10/P. Consider a forecast for 10-Year real return over the next 10 years, from Feb-2017 to Feb-2027. The inverse of CAPE can provide a good forecast for 10-year real returns, except for two unknown variables: Earnings Growth Rate...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Do you have any idea whether returns are evenly distributed throughout that range? I suspect that they are not. You could investigate that by changing the interval and see the impact on 'success rates'. I would have to dig up the code for that. If valuations don't change over the holding period, th...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Was it a normal distribution? Was -4% just as likely as +4%? Did you annualize each month's returns? I find your results extraordinary. Why isn't anyone else publishing findings like these? Plenty of PhDs out there would kill to get such good results from such a simple equation. I didn't look at an...
by grayfox
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20058

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I wonder if there is a chart of CAPE-10 based forecasts of US stocks since the beginning of CAPE-10 vs actual returns (nominal or real) so that we can see how well CAPE-10 predictions have turned out so far. Boglesmind I made some charts like that a couple of years ago. I looked at how well the inv...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?
Replies: 42
Views: 4119

Re: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?

Thanks "grayfox" Okay. Light bulbs going on here. You have my attention. :shock: Why TIPS vs TIPS Funds? CD's as in ladder CD's? What is STRIPS? Is Short-Term investment grade funds (VFSUX) considered "floor income"? Is Intermediate Term Treasury Fund (VFIUX) considered "fl...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 20, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?
Replies: 42
Views: 4119

Re: Once having achieved 30X -- share your strategy?

What is your strategy now that you have "made your number, made the 30x, "won the game" (per swedroe, bernstein, etc)? 1 Levels vs. Flows. Number 1 is think in terms of income (flow) rather than balance (level). Level is an amount, like $1,000,000. Flow is a rate, like $6,000 per mon...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 18, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4061

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

As far as I understand, the purchases at the 30-year TIPS auction will settle on 2-28-2017. But according to Vanguard, I am already ahead on the TIPS purchase. They list the current value for one bond at $989.86. Does that mean that the 2047 TIPS is already trading on the secondary market? The total...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4061

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

I don't actually view TIPS as investing. It is simply to preserve the value of what you already have. As long as YTM is 0% or higher, It's like cash without inflation. If you have $10,000 and want to be able to buy $10,000 worth of stuff in 30 years, put it into TIPS. [OT comment removed by admin La...
by grayfox
Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using PE10 to limit withdrawal rate
Replies: 8
Views: 1023

Re: Using PE10 to limit withdrawal rate

I've been toying with the idea to use the retiree's current investment balance, the equities allocation percent, and also the current market's PE10 / CAPE, all to calculate a withdrawal rate. The idea is that if the market is in the "historically high" range, and you're heavy in equities,...
by grayfox
Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4061

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

We have had very low inflation for a while 2016 1.26% 2015 0.12% 2014 1.62% 2013 1.47% 2012 2.07% 2011 3.16% 2010 1.64% 2009 -0.34% 2008 3.85% 2007 2.85% 2006 3.24% 2005 3.39% 2004 2.68% 2003 2.27% 2002 1.59% 2001 2.83% 2000 3.38% But it sounds to me that people in the know are expecting higher infl...
by grayfox
Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation does not matter (may be)
Replies: 55
Views: 3920

Re: Valuation does not matter (may be)

I have to comment here because this looks like a huge misunderstanding. First he writes valuation changes : Over shorter time horizons, valuation changes start to dominate returns: Valuation Changes (40%) Dividends (25%) Inflation (21%) Earnings Growth (15%) So far so good. Then he pulls the old swi...
by grayfox
Sat Feb 04, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5573

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

What I find hilarious is how the option to buy an Inflation-Indexed SPIA just quietly disappeared. Did any retirement expert say if you were planning to buy one you better get it before they run out? There was no announcement by anyone that a deadline was coming up. Nope, just suddenly one day the q...
by grayfox
Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5573

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I don't get why anyone likes TIPS. They guarantee you a 0% real return. That's only slightly better than a savings account. Granted, it's a guarantee, but it's a guarantee to never get ahead. Beyond 2023, they offer higher yield than 0%. See WSJ TIPS Jan-2025 0.350% Apr-2032 0.638% Feb-2044 1.019% ...

Go to advanced search