Search found 4473 matches

by grayfox
Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?
Replies: 71
Views: 6593

Re: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?

Just wondering... with Jack Bogle predicting a 4% stock market return over the next decade, I was just wondering what bogleheads were doing with their portfolios to increase their returns. Are people investing a little more in more riskier assets like small caps and emerging markets? What else can ...
by grayfox
Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 14955

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I know lots of people who are under 50 and say they are retired. Maybe a dozen of them? All of them openly tell people they are retired and have never mentioned any problems from that openness. How does the resentfulness of a random stranger one meets while travelling the world in early retirement ...
by grayfox
Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 14955

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

One other piece of advice from that guy I knew who retired at 44: Don't say you are retired until after age 60. Before 60, say you are self-employed. So when traveling around he world for months at a time, and people wonder how you could afford to do that without working, well, he was self employed,...
by grayfox
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 14955

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

Divided and Conquer. 0. Divided the problem in two parts: Year 1-30 ( Early Retirement Period ) and Year 30-End ( Normal Retirement Period ). 1. Solve the first part with 30-year TIPS ladder. Using TIPS ladder spreadsheet with real interest rate from 1/1/2017 this would cost $8,134,780. The actual c...
by grayfox
Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 14955

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

I would appreciate some advice on my current situation: I recently sold my company and now have $11.4M in investable assets - $300k in Roth IRA and $11.1M in taxable accounts (mostly money market at the moment). I have now early retired at 37, probably will get married next year, and then have 2-3 ...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not enough US market listings?
Replies: 14
Views: 1522

Re: Not enough US market listings?

Interesting article in the Economist this week about the decline in the number of US listings. In particular since 1997 or so the number of publicly listed companies has declined by half or so - from about 10000 to 5000. Multiple factors are in play - delistings of companies taken private, mergers ...
by grayfox
Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”
Replies: 21
Views: 2428

Re: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”

I personally agree that value matters, and personally invest that way, but time horizon does matter when looking at this stuff. The longer your horizon, the less of an effect initial value has on returns. Yes. I've looked into this and came to the same conclusion. And it makes sense logically. Imag...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3473

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

OK, I found some of the data I was looking for. On page 57 Change in endowment net assets for fiscal year ended June 30 (thousands of dollars) 1 Net Assets, beginning of year 25,571,590 100.00 2 Investment Income 542,272 2.12 3 Net Appreciation 210,958 0.82 4 Total Investment Return 753,230 2.95 5 C...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3473

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

There is more detail on Contributions on page 25 ($ in thousands) 2016 2015 Operating Contributions 180,796 263,019 Non-Operating Contributions 254,380 138,521 It looks too complicated for me to figure out the dollar amount of expenses that were paid. Maybe an accountant can figure it out, and tell ...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3473

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

The closest answers you might get would be in the University's annual report, which contains CPA audited financial statements and notes. I've found it for you here . A quick look at the notes don't tell me exactly what the fees were, but one may be able to figure it out if you cross reference their...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 3473

Re: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

I'm looking at page 2 Endowment Highlights. It shows 2016 2015 Market Value $25,408.6 $25,572.1 Return 3.4% 11.5% Spending $1,152.8 1082.5 Operating Budget Revenues $3,472.4 $3,297.7 Endowment Percentage 33.2% 32.8% I read that there are 70,000 Yale alumni who are solicited for donations every year....
by grayfox
Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I suppose by 2010, emergency cash funds had been depleted and 401k funds are being used to fund living expenses. 2015 was a difficult Market year and Retiring Boomers are withdrawing from the job market, stopping 401k contributions, and taking distributions. IMO.Further, Millennial's investing inco...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Here's another piece of the puzzle: https://s29.postimg.org/3vzemo8tj/Captura_de_pantalla_2016_12_15_a_las_5_22_55_PM.png 1980: 4.6 million U.S. Households own mutual funds 2000: 48.6 million U.S. Households own mutual funds. :arrow: The number of Households that own mutual funds was multiplied by 1...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Taking-In $2 Billion a Day in New Cash
Replies: 30
Views: 5181

Re: Vanguard Taking-In $2 Billion a Day in New Cash

I have been looking at Mutual Fund cashflows. The dollar amount of Inflow and Outflow to Mutual Funds is enormous. From the ICI 2016 Factbook, Tables 18, 19, 20: (pages 189, 190, 191) Net New Cashflow for 2015 Type Inflow Outflow Net Percent (billions of dollars) Equity 2,009.5 2,086.3 -76.9 -3.75% ...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4256

Re: Why cheaper index funds translate into lower future returns

There might be some truth in there but he doesn't show the alternative neither. It seems to me that all he is saying is that there are too many buyers in the market, and expensive investing would have preventing a flood of individual investor. Isn't most of the money on the market institutional any...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

The previous chart shows Net New Cashflow for Equity, Hybrid and Bond Funds combined. I thought that I'd drill down into the cashflow for Equity Mutual Funds. This is from Table 18 from ICI 2016 Factbook page 189. Inflow is New Sales + Exchange Sales. Outflow is Regular Redemptions + Exchange Redemp...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Ok, my model is a steady $30 billlion per month net inflow to mutual funds from working investors. That works out to +$360 billion per year. What were the actual cash flow numbers? I'm looking at ICI 2016 Facebook page 30 Developments in Mutual Fund Flows . Figure 2.3 Net New Cash Flow to Mutual Fun...
by grayfox
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

So here is my model of what happens: Contributions Working-investor collects a paycheck every two weeks or bimonthly. I'll just assume he gets paid once per month. 401(k) contribution is automatically deducted from each paycheck and sent to mutual fund company. The rest of paycheck is direct deposit...
by grayfox
Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: advice on where to put money at age 55 to secure savings in the event of market crash
Replies: 35
Views: 3898

Re: advice on where to put money at age 55 to secure savings in the event of market crash

I am a 51 year old attorney. My goal is to retire from the practice at age 59 1/2. I am a conservative investor but have saved a lot over the years. I am happy with a lower return and have based my future on socking away my earnings. ... Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks. Floor + Upside = Lia...
by grayfox
Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I am identifying 2 groups in the U.S.: 1. Non-Investing Class. Those who, for whatever reason, don't invest in stocks and bonds. Reasons could be 1. No income 2. Do not have a good job with benefits and a retirement plan. Or just too low-paying to be able to save and invest. 3. Simply choose not to ...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Yeah, and you aren't going to determine that in any meaningful way by cobbling together unrelated data points and making assertions that don't fit the actual data. If you had followed the source of that chart you would learn that 91 million individuals owned mutual funds - so it bears no connection...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I found this source of retirement market data: ICI Fact Book . They have Investment Company Fact books for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016. The 2016 Book has 2015 Facts on the page 2: 54.9 million households own funds 93.1 million individuals own funds 44.1% of households own funds Median mutual fund assets ...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I mean you asserted that one third of this country is living hand to mouth in low wage jobs - I think that requires a little more justification. Living hand-to-mouth means that you spend all your income and have nothing left for savings. I should not be too hard to find some statistics that shows h...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Even if it is true, the magnitude of the buyers and sellers is more important to market dynamics than the number of individuals involved so what would this tell you about anything? Government statisticians collect data, summarize and report. To some, it is pure white noise. Others believe that ther...
by grayfox
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Re: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

Interesting, thanks for posting it. Here is the generation breakdown. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/ Paul Here's the headline from the article you linked: Millennials overtake Baby Boomers as America’s largest generation It is quite amazing that B...
by grayfox
Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns
Replies: 32
Views: 3432

Population Pyramids and Investing Patterns

I found this population pyramid for the United States of America 2017. 2017 Population: 326,474,013 http://static.btlas.com/pp/840-2017.png Source Simplifying assumptions: 0-24 is in school, are not employed, and are dependents on working-age parents. 25-64 is working age, could be employed, contrib...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?
Replies: 44
Views: 3068

Re: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?

I seem to recall reading that there was the opposite effect during the Great Depression. Investors back then could have been asking, "Why are valuations so low today? For decades P/E10 was 15-20 and even up to 30. Now it is only about 10. Are investors now demanding higher expected return? Fore...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?
Replies: 44
Views: 3068

Re: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?

Here's more evidence of all the new money chasing stocks and bonds. I found a chart showing Vanguard's AUM from Dec-75 to Dec-16. https://about.vanguard.com/img_files/who-we-are/remarkable-history/WWA_VAUM.png Dec-95 about $200B ? Dec-2005 about $1T ? There is small down period around 2008/2009 when...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 30, 2017 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?
Replies: 44
Views: 3068

Re: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?

This is far too simplistic a view, IMO. Certainly, some (many) people do what you suggest, but that doesn't mean they set the price for stocks. Moreover, look at the market for fixed income which (IIRC) is far larger than the market for equities. Individual bond prices move all over, reflecting fut...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?
Replies: 44
Views: 3068

Re: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?

:idea: Demand for new stocks from accumulators would be somewhat offset by the Bogleheads who are decumulating, selling stock each year. Let's say that average BH in retirement needs $50K per year, and gets $30K from SS. That leaves $20K per year from stocks and bonds. Again, if 60/40, he would sell...
by grayfox
Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?
Replies: 44
Views: 3068

Re: Doubting Shiller -- what is the "correct" P/E?

I think a related and fundamental question is what is the mechanism that underlies the pricing of the stock market. Are prices truly being set by people doing some sort of DCF on the individual stocks and/or the market as a whole (which involves some sort of risk premium in deciding what discount r...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 25, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: claim: stock/bond allocation should be independent of investment horizon
Replies: 58
Views: 5144

Re: claim: stock/bond allocation should be independent of investment horizon

Look at this chart and let me know if it looks like stocks were more risky or less risky over longer holding periods. Every 40-year Returns Curve from the S&P index since 1870, superimposed: http://i.imgur.com/ExlQ5VD.png source To me, it looks like stocks were less risky the longer you held the...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trouble with Macroeconomics by Paul Romer
Replies: 6
Views: 763

Re: Trouble with Macroeconomics by Paul Romer

I'm reading this paper https://paulromer.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/WP-Trouble.pdf by Paul Romer (Chief Economist and Vice President of the World Bank). I just wanted to share it with you and read your comments on it. Cheers Thanks for bringing this subject to our attention. Despite what some m...
by grayfox
Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 9045

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

PE10 is hovering around 30. The only times these levels were reached before were the late 1920s and late 1990s. I realize feeling is subjective, but I recall the 2000 and 2008 and things just don't really "feel" like those times. I don't see similar warning articles by the usual permabear...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debate with friends on market timing, annuity, etc, thoughts?
Replies: 34
Views: 1976

Re: Debate with friends on market timing, annuity, etc, thoughts?

I knew a guy at work that sometimes invested that way. Normally he just invested in S&P500-like funds. But if a blue-chip company had problems, he would put a little money into them. Like back in the 1980s, many big NY banks like Chase Manhattan and Chemical Bank had lent too much money to South...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
Replies: 71
Views: 7613

Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.

I am new to this forum, and not a savvy investor. I am about to retire (1 month) and my strategy is to take the lump sum (~$2M) to invest and live off the interest, while preserving the principal to pass onto my heirs. I'm 61.5 years old. Any advice as to how I can get this accomplished, without pa...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WSJ:Are Taxes Lurking in Your Tax-Free Retirement Account?
Replies: 5
Views: 1573

Re: WSJ:Are Taxes Lurking in Your Tax-Free Retirement Account?

I recall that it was already known that Master Limited Partnerships MLPs were a tax problem in IRAs. Seem to recall that there was more than one class of Kinder Morgan with different symbols. I think the MLP was KMP and the other was KMI? The KMP went in your taxable account and KMI in IRA. Somethin...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

I like this green chart because it shows, in a condensed way, what happened with money invested at any time in the U.S. stocks market. You put money in, it went up and down, and there was a wide range of final outcome. But they were all good, as long as you stuck with it long enough. After 40 years,...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Finer details add information about how the market behaves at shorter timer periods, they do not add information about longer time scales. Good point. That sounds like a basic principle to keep in mind when dealing with market data. We can get more detail about in-between points, but it adds nothin...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

That is where you are engaging in a complete fallacy ignoring that overlapping periods don't contain nearly the information you want them to. Aside from the problem of not including enough major disruptions, there is also the problem that things just change over time and we have no good estimate of...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Not even close. No civil war, no lost major war, not even a real invasion, no colonization by a foreign power, no black death, not much potato blight, no Yellowstone eruption, insignificant climate change, no Chicxulub event, no singularity, no vacuum decay, and above all the axiom of choice has no...
by grayfox
Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

OK, no one wants to answer my question, so I will give my answer. 1. How many complete 40-year periods are shown in this chart? That is probably plotted using monthly data available from Yale Professor Robert Shiller. The first month is January 1871, so not until January 1911 is the first 40-year (4...
by grayfox
Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Three questions:

1. How many complete 40-year periods are shown in this chart?
2. How many i.i.d. 40-year random samples are there? **
3. What, if anything, does this chart of past history have to say about future U.S. stock returns.

** i.i.d. = independent and identically distributed
by grayfox
Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Rule No. 1. Never lose money. Rule No. 2. Never forget Rule No. 1 Well, with stocks, you can never say never. But let's say 99% chance that you will not lose money. That looks like at about 2 decades on the green feather chart. At about 3 decades, 99% chance of at least doubling your money. At about...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

There are all sorts of problems with drawing conclusions from this of course. Probably most importantly, everyone, eventually, has their final 10 year period, and their final 20 year period. Unless you have a huge safety margin, you could be toast in spite of lifelong diligence. Assuming you believ...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 08, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4275

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

Brilliant! One can base their investing plan on that one chart. The worst return improved with longer periods. Notice that the worst return was at about 3 years, when you were down -75%. At 5 years, it was not uncommon to be down -50%. Even at 10 years, you were often down -25%. Only by 20 years cou...
by grayfox
Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's 2017 Economic and Market Outlook
Replies: 12
Views: 2332

Re: Vanguard's 2017 Economic and Market Outlook

On page 24, Figure II-5 compares Shiller’s CAPE multiple (for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index) with Vanguard’s proprietary fair-value CAPE estimate, which is based on the fundamental drivers of equity-market earnings yields, namely, interest rates and inflation expectations. Their chart shows CA...
by grayfox
Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 21
Views: 1684

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

OK, here are my conclusions: If you have 90 years of annual data and calculate returns over 80 10-year periods, there are 80 samples. Period. If you calculate the sample statistics, these are 100% valid summary statistics of what happened during that time. If you have higher sample-rate data, e.g. m...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 04, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 21
Views: 1684

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

In any case, as for how many 10-year returns there are, I don't think we even have 8. Isn't the definition something like: If the values in one sample affect the values in the other sample, then the samples are dependent. If "P/E at any given time is a fairly good predictor of what the market ...
by grayfox
Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 21
Views: 1684

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

A few years ago, I took a course in Econometrics where we calculated all manner of statistics about stock returns. There was one test for serial correlation that used the Autocorrelation Function**. The ACF finds the correlation of a time series with lagged versions of itself. The correlation values...

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