Search found 5480 matches

by grayfox
Fri May 29, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

That completes my survey of the world. Which countries would I consider investing in? I came up with 28 countries: The anglophone countries, most of northern Europe, some of the former communist countries that lean toward the west, the prosperous countries on the Pacific rim, Israel in the middle ea...
by grayfox
Fri May 29, 2020 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1491
Views: 707612

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

... To get comfortable with the ups and downs, for planning purposes, I have started to focus on the dividend payout rather than the asset value. That's not to say I'm reaching for yield, but rather view the 3-4% yield on my ETFs (mostly value and international) as a sustainable withdrawal rate and...
by grayfox
Thu May 28, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

But only four stock exchanges: For the sake of accuracy, Kenya has a stock exchange too.... https://www.nse.co.ke/ Thanks. It looks like Kenya has a population if 51.39 million, 10x the population of South Carolina. The official languages are English and Bantu Swahili (called Kiswahili). Kenya is a...
by grayfox
Thu May 28, 2020 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3567

Re: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds

I've been mulling over Warren Buffett's statement that stocks are cheap vs. bonds. His thesis is essentially that if you take the earnings yield (i.e. earnings of all companies in the s&p 500 divided by the market cap) and then subtract the yield of the 10 year treasury you come up with a "risk pre...
by grayfox
Thu May 28, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

South America. Pop. 428 million. 5.4% of the world population. 12 countries in South America: Brazil Brasília 202,241,714 Colombia Bogotá 46,920,257 Argentina Buenos Aires 40,482,489 Venezuela Caracas 31,768,930 Peru Lima 29,132,013 Chile Santiago 16,928,873 Ecuador Quito 14,573,101 Bolivia La Paz a...
by grayfox
Tue May 26, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Africa. Pop. 1,290 million. 16.3% of the world population. About 55 countries in Africa (exact number is disputed): Algeria – Algiers Angola – Luanda Benin – Porto-Novo Botswana – Gaborone Burkina Faso – Ouagadougou Burundi – Bujumbura Cameroon – Yaounde The Republic of Cabo Verde – Praia The Centra...
by grayfox
Tue May 26, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Here's a chart showing the Anglosphere. I would consider all as potential investment opportunities. https://i.postimg.cc/cgTbFZyM/58-D700-BF-1788-4-FAA-A05-F-C186-E79-AED29.png This map leaves out Belize and Liberia, both have English as their official languages. Languages of Liberia says that "Lib...
by grayfox
Tue May 26, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

There is a slippery slope there: there is nothng magic about the division between emerging and developed. Pretty soon you will be selecting a fund to invest in only the least risky single country, then individual stocks to invest in only the least risky single stock in that single country. I think ...
by grayfox
Tue May 26, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

The correlation between developed markets and emerging markets, as represented by VTMGX and VEIEX, typing them into PortfolioVisualizer's correlation tool and accepting all defaults, has been 0.88 . So in a total international index, you're talking about a roughly 20% allocation to something that h...
by grayfox
Tue May 26, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Grayfox, one can limit a lot of concerns through a developed markets fund, although you get Singapore and Hong Kong. (Not advocating - I wouldn’t do it myself - just pointing it out.) Yes, I will consider a developed markets fund. iShares MSCI EAFE Index ( EFA ). That has all the developed countrie...
by grayfox
Tue May 26, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Middle East. Only 2.03% of the world market cap. Rank Country Language Family Exchange Founded Value Percent (billions $) 1 Saudi Arabia Semitic – Arabic Saudi Stock Exchange 2007 442 33.97% 2 Israel Semitic – Hebrew Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange 1953 237 18.22% 3 Turkey Turkic - Turkish Borsa Istanbul 18...
by grayfox
Mon May 25, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

All of the World’s Stock Exchanges by Size . Rank Country Exchanges Value Percent (billions $) 1 North America 5 28059 40.45% 2 Asia 17 23048 33.23% 3 Europe 17 13589 19.59% 4 Middle East 9 1410 2.03% 5 Australia/NZ 2 1207 1.74% 6 Africa 5 1122 1.62% 7 South America 5 933 1.35% World 60 69368 100.0...
by grayfox
Sun May 24, 2020 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Why not to keep it simple and buy an ex US index ETF like VXUS? In any year any country can come out ahead of another one. So holding onto Canada doesn’t in addition to US is not much diversification. That's a good suggestion. For the U.S. stock market, index funds work very well. Instead of pickin...
by grayfox
Sat May 23, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Moving on to Europe. This is a region I know quite a bit about. I have spent much time there, mostly in central and eastern Europe--the old German, Austro-Hugarian, and Russian empires that ended in 1918. And I have visited most European countries. Many European countries, like UK and Germany, are m...
by grayfox
Fri May 22, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

After Canada, maybe the next place to look would be Australia and New Zealand. They call that region of the world Oceania. Population: 41 million. Tiny population. According to Wikipedia Oceania includes includes Australasia, Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. Much of Oceania, including Australia ...
by grayfox
Thu May 21, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Re: Investing in International Stocks

I had seen that site from link in another discussion, but didn't read some of the excellent analysis before, such as: Northern Dominance From a geographical perspective, it is the Northern Hemisphere that is dominant. North America and Europe both hold 40.6% and 19.5% respectively of the world’s ma...
by grayfox
Thu May 21, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ecobee3 lite - smart choice?
Replies: 10
Views: 792

Re: Ecobee3 lite - smart choice?

I just ordered and Ecobee 3 lite. My gas company had a Smart Thermostat Earth day promotion where you could get it for $14. Regular $169.

The other $14 option was Nest E. But I picked the Ecobee Lite without doing any research. I figured for $14 you can't go wrong.
by grayfox
Thu May 21, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 44
Views: 3513

Investing in International Stocks

It appears that International stocks have lower valuations than U.S. stocks. E.g. lower P/E and P/B, higher dividend yield. Therefore I'm looking at investing in International stocks. We are all familiar with the U.S. stocks markets. U.S. stocks trade on the NYSE or NASDAQ exchanges. These are well...
by grayfox
Wed May 20, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

Five Eyes . Never heard that before. Here are the Five Eye CAPE Ratio : Australia 17.74 Canada 19.64 New Zealand ?? United Kingdom 14.03 US 27.30 :shock: OK, so I am looking at UK because it is much cheaper than US. CAPE 14 vs 27. And it's modern, developed country similar to U.S., etc. The ETF is ...
by grayfox
Tue May 19, 2020 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

If I decide to add non-US to my investments, I would likely to put 20% of equity allocation with iShares ETFs equally weighted (5% each): iShares MSCI Australia Index ETF Fund: EWA iShares MSCI New Zealand ETF: ENZL iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF: EWU iShares MSCI Canada ETF: EWC This way I will a...
by grayfox
Tue May 19, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15556

Re: What does Market know, that we did not know?

The key variable is R0 - transmissibility. We also don't yet have a clear picture on the Infection Fatality Rate, I don't think, although most assumptions are around 1.0%. According to this study from the Netherlands, chance of death is much lower than near 1%. And It depends on age. See table from...
by grayfox
Mon May 18, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

The best option for someone very resistant going international would be to select nations most similar to US in terms of legal system, low corruption, transparency rule of law, open economy, etc. It looks like Five Eyes countries fit that definition. Actually their combined historical performance i...
by grayfox
Mon May 18, 2020 5:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

This website provides a head-head-to-head comparison of any two ETFs: ETF Comparison Tool VTI vs VXUS It compares cost, performance, portfolio, factors, etc. Look at costs. For VXUS, average spread is double and E.R. is more than double. There you go. Costs matter. Getting error "Webpage not found"...
by grayfox
Mon May 18, 2020 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

You can find and compare historic CAPE ratio by country for 26 countries, including BRICS and US, (and export the data) here: https://indices.barclays/IM/33/en/indices/static/historic-cape.app It's something, anyway. Oh, and you have to click on the "Retail Investor" button first to get to the data...
by grayfox
Sun May 17, 2020 6:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

This website provides a head-head-to-head comparison of any two ETFs: ETF Comparison Tool VTI vs VXUS

It compares cost, performance, portfolio, factors, etc. Look at costs. For VXUS, average spread is double and E.R. is more than double. There you go. Costs matter.
by grayfox
Thu May 14, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

I think this pandemic is going to make permanent changes to the world economy; it's accelerating trends that were in place beforehand. Moreover, I think the low/negative interest rate environment overseas is coming to the US. The former trend favors tech/biotech companies, growth companies, and lar...
by grayfox
Thu May 14, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

Thanks, asif408. That does help clarify the effect of rebalancing. But when I run the models with the US Market and the Global ex-US Market as assets rather than the comparable Vanguard index funds, I consistently get substantially lower returns on portfolios with ex-US allocations with multiple ti...
by grayfox
Thu May 14, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

Any additional thoughts/critiques on the data being used? From MSCI: The MSCI EAFE Index was launched on Mar 31, 1986. Data prior to the launch date is back-tested data (i.e. calculations of how the index might have performed over that time period had the index existed). There are frequently materi...
by grayfox
Thu May 14, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

Here's a good starting point for foreign stock markets: All of the World’s Stock Exchanges by Size There are 60 major stock exchanges in the world. 16 have market cap over $1 trillion. The rest are pretty small. Asia has 17 exchanges. Australia/NZ 2 Europe 17 Middle East 9 Africa 5 North America 5 S...
by grayfox
Thu May 14, 2020 5:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

At the time of his tweet, the past 70 years was 1949-2019. What happened just before 1949? Much of Europe and Asia were bombed to rubble. Look at Japan Nikkei 225 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/Nikkei_225.png/1024px-Nikkei_225.png Japan had tremendous growth during the 19...
by grayfox
Wed May 13, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

So help me think this out, please: Let's say you start investing 15 years ago. If you look at 15 year trailing returns for VGTSX (3.83%) and VTSAX (8.55%), your inclination is to see an allocation to ex-US as a fail and you left a lot of money on the table. But as arcticpineapplecorp pointed out ea...
by grayfox
Wed May 13, 2020 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 252
Views: 16631

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

What spread were you guys paying a couple of years ago for a gold eagle/buffalo over the spot price? I've never paid attention before. In the USA it seems to be about 5% now and in the UK 10%. I can't see a good way to shift money out of gold ETFs without getting killed on the spread. Obviously it ...
by grayfox
Wed May 13, 2020 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

Any strong thoughts about recovery of or long-term effects on international markets vs. US after this event-driven bear market? Prior to this year, there seemed to be a growing consensus (including by Vanguard) that investors should hold >40% international in their equity allocation. I think prevai...
by grayfox
Wed May 13, 2020 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

:?: Here is another question: Where can one find historical data on international stocks? Like historical earnings and dividends. For U.S. stocks, we can get free data online from Robert Shiller going back to 1871. That data includes Price, Earnings, Dividends, CPI and 10-Year rate. We can calculate...
by grayfox
Tue May 12, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

asif408 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 am
....
So I don't really see the evidence you speak of.
:?: You didn't provide an answer to the question my post was about: Why do international stocks have such lower valuation than U.S. Stocks?
by grayfox
Tue May 12, 2020 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

International stocks are a MUCH better value than US stocks. For an apples-to-apples comparison, I'll give you examples of US and international stock ETFs from the same issuer with the same style. VanEck Vectors has funds that specialize in companies with economic moats. MOTI is the international v...
by grayfox
Mon May 11, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

:arrow: I'm thinking that somehow, the fact that the U.S. has this infinite well of money it can dip into gets reflected in the U.S. stock market, resulting in higher valuation for U.S. Stocks. No other country has that advantage. Alright, I'll bite and ask the question: how is this actionable? Doe...
by grayfox
Mon May 11, 2020 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Here's an idea to explain the higher valuation of U.S. stock market relative to foreign stocks. Maybe someone has thought of this already. The U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the World. From wikipedia, A reserve currency (or anchor currency) is a foreign currency that is held in significant q...
by grayfox
Sun May 10, 2020 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

US-only investors are like the anti-vaxxers of Bogleheads. They just repeat the same 5 tired points that have been thoroughly debunked as red herrings used to backwardly justify their performance chasing. Then when too many of the pro-world-market-cap people find the thread and start dismantling al...
by grayfox
Sun May 10, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

If the US did outperform INTL for the next decade, as it did last decade, what global market cap would US be by 2030? I’ve not done this for the last and next 10 years, but I’ll share a comment from another thread a few months back.. Since the start of 1986, US has outperformed Ex-US by 2950% to 10...
by grayfox
Sat May 09, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Doesn't that fly in the face of market efficiency? Surely, if we are exceptional, this is widely known and already priced into our stocks. Efficient Markets is why I wonder about international stocks. Here is my thinking regarding valuations. First of all, I think the market is efficient and valuat...
by grayfox
Sat May 09, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

If international underperforms the way it has, people holding US & international will be just fine, if the US exceptionalism expires and runs into a catastrophic 30 year japan like scenario, people holding all US are in trouble, I’ll play it safe and buy insurance through international. That's the ...
by grayfox
Thu May 07, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Don’t see them as one market. I think, seeing it from the US, it’s easy to look at it as US vs International. Maybe it’s best to compare US vs France vs Germany vs Switzerland vs Australia vs China vs Japan vs Brazil etc I am not sure there is much meaning in a blanket P/E or P/B which lumps the di...
by grayfox
Thu May 07, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16073

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

I am looking for an in-depth analysis of the P/E, PEG P/B ratio's of the Total US Stock Market VS International VS Emerging Markets over the past 50 years. Do you guys know where I can find such an analysis? I completely agree with the thesis that the US Stock Market is overvalued when directly com...
by grayfox
Wed May 06, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Last 20 Years
Replies: 42
Views: 4069

Re: Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Last 20 Years

From New York times Over the long run, stocks are supposed to beat bonds. But they haven’t managed to do that uniformly since 2000, a sign of how difficult things have gotten for ordinary investors. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/business/bonds-beat-stocks-over-20-years.html?smid=em-share Back ...
by grayfox
Sun May 03, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

Corruption, threat of nationalization. Look at Venezuela. It was relatively rich oil exporter until it was not. Russian Yukos oil giant was nationalized, etc. Chinese companies are semi-government entities. Since 1820 Argentina defaulted 8 times, Ecuador and Venezuela 10, Mexico and Turkey 8, Chile...
by grayfox
Sat May 02, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

Allocation Region Fund ROE E growth P/B P/E Return 10Y 23.20% Emerging Markets VEMAX 16.3% 13.7% 1.6x 11.4 1.19% 40.10% Europe VEUSX 13.7% 9.3% 1.4x 14.0 3.66% 29.20% Pacific VPADX 11.3% 9.7% 1.0x 12.3 3.88% 0.40% Middle East 6.30% North America 0.80% Other TISM VTIAX 12.9% 10.6% 1.3x 12.6 3.07% (b...
by grayfox
Fri May 01, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

Here is the percent in each region and each country in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares ( VTIAX ) Region Allocation 23.20% Emerging Markets 40.10% Europe 29.20% Pacific 0.40% Middle East 6.30% North America 0.80% Other by Country Japan 18.2% China 10.3% United Kingdom 10....
by grayfox
Fri May 01, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

According to Vanguard: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares ( VTSAX ) has ROE = 17.1% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares ( VTIAX ) has ROE = 12.9% :?: Why do International stocks have a much lower ROE than U.S. stocks? I dont know. I don't know how those a...
by grayfox
Fri May 01, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40790

Re: Why international?

... In the long run, and I think 10 years is long enoughish, stock returns will generally track their return on equity, a little less. Either US stocks have a ROE of more than double International (which I doubt), or they found ways to boost earnings growth in other ways... hmmm. ... According to V...