Search found 285 matches

by adave
Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 498
Views: 38456

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

As mentioned above, these people are in the business of collecting assets under management. That’s their business and how they get paid. Taking big risk and bets that pay off in the short run makes them rich, even if the fund blows up or grossly underperforms in the long term. I recently listened to...
by adave
Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ARK investment
Replies: 189
Views: 16672

Re: ARK investment

I happen to have a lot of insight into the genomics field and don’t think their picks are particularly good choices, more like the most obvious ones. Could you expand on this ? Genomics is not an area I know much about, so I'm eager to get any insight. Essentially, their research is quite superfici...
by adave
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22114
Views: 2945143

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The one year anniversary of the COVID crash would only be relevant if people were buying near the bottom last year. How many people were doing that? Not many, most people were selling or sitting out. Nobody was predicting a quick rebound and mostly all you heard out there was doom and gloom. Thats ...
by adave
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ARK investment
Replies: 189
Views: 16672

Re: ARK investment

I happen to have a lot of insight into the genomics field and don’t think their picks are particularly good choices, more like the most obvious ones. Could you expand on this ? Genomics is not an area I know much about, so I'm eager to get any insight. Essentially, their research is quite superfici...
by adave
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22114
Views: 2945143

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The one year anniversary of the COVID crash would only be relevant if people were buying near the bottom last year. How many people were doing that? Not many, most people were selling or sitting out. Nobody was predicting a quick rebound and mostly all you heard out there was doom and gloom.
by adave
Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ARK investment
Replies: 189
Views: 16672

Re: ARK investment

ARK is toast. This story has happened many times in the past. I happen to have a lot of insight into the genomics field and don’t think their picks are particularly good choices, more like the most obvious ones. Then again,
I could be wrong totally and ARK will be the next Berkshire.
by adave
Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 498
Views: 38456

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

What about the fact that ETFs can’t close? What if ARKK becomes a $100B or $200B etf? I seriously don’t see any way to manage that much money given her strategy and keep such returns. I’m quite skeptical at $50B. I feel not being able to close the ETF is a major disadvantage.
by adave
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 498
Views: 38456

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

I don’t put QQQ and ARKK in the same boat. QQQ top holding are massive and incredibly profitable companies. Apple had $111B in revenue last quarter, truly amazing numbers . ARKK is extremely speculative on the other hand and it seems like a lot of their stock pickers have only college degrees and do...
by adave
Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 498
Views: 38456

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

I dip my toe in some tech ETFs like QQQ and XLK (VGT tlh partner). I would agree that Tech is not going anywhere and only increasing it’s presence in our lives. But chasing ARK right now is pure speculative performance chasing. Cathie Wood is fairy old and I don’t see anything in her background that...
by adave
Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuations? Somethings got to give
Replies: 269
Views: 18460

Re: Market valuations? Somethings got to give

It may have been short, but March 2020 was a bear market right? So we are just starting a new bull run as far as I can tell 🙌
by adave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ark Funds
Replies: 156
Views: 22817

Re: Ark Funds

Tesla- 800%

Teladoc- 980%

Square- 1300%

Roku- 1300%

Crispr- 500%

A few of her good calls. Who knows if she can keep it going with significant asset bloat. It’s worth a small position IMO just for kicks....
by adave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ark Funds
Replies: 156
Views: 22817

Re: Ark Funds

I have a small position in ARKK also, maybe 2% of total portfolio. It keeps my otherwise fairly vanilla vanguard ETF portfolio a little exciting.
by adave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeing Signs of Market Top?
Replies: 73
Views: 4629

Re: Seeing Signs of Market Top?

Impossible to say IMO. Pandemic response by the government has been unprecedented in human history basically. We are in uncharted territory that’s for sure. I just buy vanguard ETFs and let it ride. No sense losing any sleep over it.
by adave
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physician Retirement Savings
Replies: 400
Views: 88149

Re: Physician Retirement Savings

......
by adave
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physicians: Should I leave my job?
Replies: 207
Views: 16282

Re: Physicians: Should I leave my job?

Many doctors undertake "geographic arbitrage" strategies early in their career going to a rural location for high income. I believe a lot of this is due to deferred gratification over the years and wanting to get out and make real coin. Personally, I think this is a bad idea as where you l...
by adave
Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physician Retirement Savings
Replies: 400
Views: 88149

Re: Physician Retirement Savings

.....
by adave
Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8605

Re: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?

My guess is a lot of people missed the run-up from the end of March lows, or even worse sold out at the bottom, and thus are hoping and praying for it go down again.
by adave
Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SoftBank partially responsible for tech stock rally in recent weeks?
Replies: 52
Views: 6467

Re: SoftBank partially responsible for tech stock rally in recent weeks?

Seems unlikely any single private entity could control or significantly influence the $10 trillion NASDAQ. My guess is that the big tech stocks simply were too hot and due for some cooling off. It is an interesting story though. My guess is M. Son was just trying to make some quick money to offset t...
by adave
Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22114
Views: 2945143

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

After the events of this March, a day like today doesn’t seem all that bad.... stocks fluctuate
by adave
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Those 5 companies are money machines
by adave
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

With respect, what is the catalyst for a crash here? Technology is here to stay and keeps inflation in check. Everyday we get closer to the end of the pandemic and a vaccine. After all, the virus will be gone eventually. Sure, many industries have been hurt but the government has stepped in (rightly...
by adave
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012847

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I also believe that technology has a deflationary effect and currently we are in the midst of an economy led and being changed by technology. Thus, inflation is not going to show up for quite a while and the Fed will be able to keep rates low for a long time.... asset prices continue to melt up. Eve...
by adave
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012847

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yeah it is instructive to go back and read the doom and gloom posts from March.... you'd definitely question if this is the Boglehead forum or not!
by adave
Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ark Funds
Replies: 156
Views: 22817

Re: Ark Funds

$37 for ARKK on March 20th - would have been a great buy!
by adave
Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

One change from prior crashes is it seems the Fed is very quick to pounce now in the face of a crisis. It seems we have gone from: Great Depression: Fed fails to pounce at all and in fact makes it worse and longer by reducing liquidity. Corona crisis: Fed pounces massively and very quickly with unpr...
by adave
Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012847

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

While I agree the economy is fragile right now, interest rates are zero which makes sitting on cash a money loser and makes bonds unattractive. Fundamentally, until this changes and rates start to go up (which could be years) stocks will continue to melt up. Tough to be a bear right now and fight th...
by adave
Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Tesla is far, far ahead of any other car manufacturer when it comes to technology and in particular self-driving technology. It is truly something special to behold when you drive a Tesla and try out the various autonomous driving tech for the first time. They make a remarkable and potentially revol...
by adave
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Tesla makes a great car. When I first drove one I was convinced it was a special product. But, I believe people see tremendous additional opportunities for the company outside of cars, and it’s hard to argue that the opportunities are not there - decarbonization trends are the future. The real quest...
by adave
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14768

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

No, didn't sell any. The positions in total are up about ~50k since my original post.... kinda crazy.... think I will just continue to hold and see what happens.
by adave
Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14768

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

I totally agree with that sentiment that these may not be super dominant companies for decades to come. However, otoh, since we use the products so much from these companies it sort of makes me feel better that I’ll have some idea when they start to decline in quality or service. At the moment, howe...
by adave
Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14768

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

Apple has its teeth in the next generation - my kids who are elementary school only know a tablet to be an iPad and all the “cool kids” have AirPods.... My wife uses Amazon more than probably any other company and half my CC Bill is littered with Amazon charges. It’s crazy how these companies are en...
by adave
Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14768

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

Thanks for the replies so far.
by adave
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14768

AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

I’m an index investor for the long-term, however I also own 100 shares of AMZN and 500 shares of AAPL in an IRA that I purchased a while back mainly because I noticed we used the products of these companies a ton in our family. Recent run up in values make me sort of nervous - time to bail and buy V...
by adave
Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's journey to Amazon Web Services
Replies: 17
Views: 2747

Re: Vanguard's journey to Amazon Web Services

Very cool - I must say the Vanguard smartphone app is pretty excellent.
by adave
Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Primecap Admiral Fund VPMAX
Replies: 33
Views: 7983

Re: Primecap Admiral Fund VPMAX

Sorry for the bump, but I'm curious about if the opinions on this fund have shifted since the OP - the fund not performing all too great over the last 5 years. I was reading that PRIMECAP management has had some of it's top managers have retired or are near retirement - are the best days in the past?
by adave
Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do the tech giants exceed expectations so consistently?
Replies: 25
Views: 2147

Re: How do the tech giants exceed expectations so consistently?

IMO it will take some type of seismic shift in technology to displace these mega-tech firms.... something like quantum computing or someone figuring out AI. The issue is however that these mega-tech firms are the ones best positioned with R&D and manpower to make this type of shift happen or use...
by adave
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do the tech giants exceed expectations so consistently?
Replies: 25
Views: 2147

Re: How do the tech giants exceed expectations so consistently?

I’m not into social media but I use a lot of Apple products, which are all fantastic and only get better every year. As a family we also use a lot of Amazon / Amazon products - so convenient and easy. Google of course is default for many internet services for us.... “search it up” as my kids say. I ...
by adave
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012847

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

This was an good lesson in tax loss harvesting for me. My father, who has been investing for decades, often will harvest a tax loss out of a stock or mutual fund and then just wait the 30 days before buying back in. I have tried to teach him the benefit of using TLH ETF pairs so that you can book th...
by adave
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 235
Views: 16584

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

It was extremely irrational back then, really felt like a bubble and my parents lost a lot of money when it burst. Some stocks today have a similar feel but overall the tech sector is on much more stable footing. Many of these companies make lots of money and have basically monopoly positions. We ar...
by adave
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 33276

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

I wonder how much of the economy is really “shut down” per se. Certain industries absolutely are getting crushed but just based on my own household much of the pre-Covid activity continues. Most of my kids activities have moved online and I continue to pay them, we still do plenty of shopping but ha...
by adave
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012847

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Every day that passes we learn more about the virus, potential treatments, extend of infections and the economic damage and how to address it. I genuinely feel the panic has past and every day that passes we get closer to defeating this thing and reviving the economy. It will probably take quite a w...
by adave
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8356

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

There is a road map to beat down the virus cases which is working in Europe and now showing signs of working in NYC. Fauci puts it best, the mitigation strategy is the best weapon we have right now. It seems if we continue to push hard on mitigation we can beat it, and that gives people some optimis...
by adave
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19678

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

You have to consider mortality by age group however - for example kids under 15 y/o highly unlikely to die while 70 yo plus something like 20% likely to die. I believe the models all take this into account.
by adave
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19678

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Market just reacting to Fauci saying we need to be prepared for 100k - 200k deaths.... that took many by surprise I imagine. It sounds terrible but it is the reality of the situation and a dose of reality was needed.
by adave
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5177

Re: Market is irrational

To me it just signifies there is not as much pessimism out there as many had predicted. People believe this will pass and we will be alright.
by adave
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9600

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

US deaths yesterday down to 362 all of a sudden. The day before, it was 525 and trending up exponentially. 600 would have been expected today but instead 362 officially. We shall see in the next few days if this is a trend and progress is being made.
by adave
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 324561

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The point-of-care 15 min test from Abbott labs is a great development. This will allow fast diagnosis and quarantine of people testing positive. This will give us a lot more data on where the virus has taken hold vs. not. I consider this positive news.
by adave
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 65628

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I just have a lot of doubt the government and Fed would ever allow it to happen. Ehhh? Huge swaths of retail have gone bankrupt in the last decade. Sears, Blockbuster, Forever 21, etc. There are boundaries. That's fair - perhaps individual names are not the best example, more like industry groups. ...
by adave
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 65628

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

My only conclusion is that it is best for me to be a stock holder and go along for the ride. The downside is a potential reduction in the equity risk premium. This is a good point. However, it seems a lot of people seem to believe that large corps or industries can still go bankrupt and cause a gre...
by adave
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 65628

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

My feeling is that we really are not living in era of a free market system in the US. We have some sort of quasi-free market where very large corporations and industries will not be allowed to go under by the government. A better term is corporatism. We live in an era of corporatism, an era where l...