Search found 1331 matches

by dkturner
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 121
Views: 16980

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

For most of us it depends on a combination of yield, security and convenience. Personally I prefer the Vanguard Advantage Account to online bank money market accounts. As to yield the current number for the VAA Account settlement fund is 1.41%, with no fees. The settlement fund is invested in the F...
by dkturner
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?
Replies: 38
Views: 2985

Re: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?

They can’t grow without limits, but tech stocks can encompass a much larger segment of stock market capitalization. A single huge tech company can continue to grow at double didget rates by spinning off subsiaries, which can in turn grow at double digit rates.
by dkturner
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 65
Views: 5164

Re: Factor Investing - A convincing article

One way to view the extra risk of value stocks is when they do poorly. Value stocks may get hit harder in a recession than safer growth stocks. The extra risk is the stock does poorly at the same time I lose my job: doing badly in bad times. Dave Why would value stocks do worse in a recession? I wo...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2373

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

Here's my own "mean reversion" observation (everything always depends on the choice of data interval!) In the time period studied by Dimson & al, 1900 to present, the average real return of the US stock market has been 6.5%, compared 4.3% for the rest of the world. I would argue that this is one he...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 121
Views: 16980

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

For most of us it depends on a combination of yield, security and convenience. Personally I prefer the Vanguard Advantage Account to online bank money market accounts. As to yield the current number for the VAA Account settlement fund is 1.41%, with no fees. The settlement fund is invested in the Fe...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1142

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

If you believe in the concept of the equity risk premium you should believe that the riskiest equities will provide the greatest return in the future. The future can, of course, be a looong time from now. Which foreign market sector do you think is the riskiest? Put your money to work in that sector.
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule
Replies: 60
Views: 6305

Re: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule

Th Fifth Circuit has the rep for being the most conservative federal circuit. That being said, the promotion of the prospect of fiduciariness by non-registered investment advisors eager to cash in on the rule smacked of abuse. It will be interesting to see if the DOL appeals this ruling or agrees t...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule
Replies: 60
Views: 6305

Re: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule

If they don't have to act in their client's best interest, then they should not be allowed call themselves financial advisors. They should be required to call themselves financial sales specialists, and they should be required to disclose which of their recommended products result in their receivin...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 8816

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:51 pm
grok87 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:35 am
dkturner wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:44 pm
Meine Schwiegermutter die in Deutschland lebt.
Echt? Kein US?
Well, also echt kein "BH living in the US" as stated in the OP :)
Sie sind richtig, sie lebt night in den U.S.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: your cash is trash at brokers J.Zweig - WSJ
Replies: 23
Views: 4402

Re: your cash is trash at brokers J.Zweig - WSJ

Why are people holding significant fractions of their portfolio in sweep accounts or in "higher yielding" alternatives at all? Presumably the reason is that people are not paying attention and just don't know. One place I will agree with Rick Ferri is that sweep accounts AND the recommended alterna...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the investment-grade vs. junk bonds divide arbitrary?
Replies: 16
Views: 1679

Re: Is the investment-grade vs. junk bonds divide arbitrary?

The OPs points are well taken - at least by the fixed income managers at the Vanguard Group. Their short, intermediate and long-term actively managed investment grade bond funds have higher allocations to A and higher rated bonds than the Vanguard corporate bond index funds.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 8816

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

Meine Schwiegermutter die in Deutschland lebt.
by dkturner
Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) does it matter how frequently you put in monies?
Replies: 27
Views: 1836

Re: When doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) does it matter how frequently you put in monies?

(Full disclosure: This is my first post ever, so please don't flame me for being a newb :( ) For instance, does it make a difference if you invest $100 daily versus investing $1500 bi-weekly versus investing $3000 monthly? They'd all compound on the same schedule, right? If you’re fortunate enough ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17779

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

... my definition of cash is same-day access . if you can't use it immediately to buy something then it has to be an investment. under this definition, i hold very little "cash". my checkings account averages $500 a month. That's fine. But that has absolutely nothing to do with Rick's original poin...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9090

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

My point in bringing up the last 10 years, is that I am not sure the peformance premium that they once had is really continuing. Over 10 years, it lagged the index and value benchmark. But, change the beginning point to a year later, March 2009, its absolute bottom, it has outperformed during from ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17779

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Differentiating cash from bonds is really splitting hairs. I like 1 year t-bills right now. Over 2% yield and as safe and liquid as you can get. I use these instead of money market funds or short-term bond funds. I know what you mean but the statement can lead to confusion. We might avoid some of t...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17779

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

A little bit too much cash in checking because I don't want to pay fees, and they keep switching up the requirements, and why am I still at this awful mega-bank anyway. Years ago I read an article where Vanguard was sending survey's inquiring and polling responses if they created a bank. Could you ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9090

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard changes the benchmark for the STAR fund when the composition of the STAR fund changes. That being said, I have no idea how one would benchmark STAR against any other existing benchmark; coming up with a standard against which to measure an all-in-one fund like STAR is problematic. I think ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9090

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard changes the benchmark for the STAR fund when the composition of the STAR fund changes. That being said, I have no idea how one would benchmark STAR against any other existing benchmark; coming up with a standard against which to measure an all-in-one fund like STAR is problematic. I think ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9090

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard STAR Fund. It beat its benchmark for as long as it has been in existence (a few weeks shy of 33 years) by 29 basis points per year. STAR's benchmark is the "STAR Composite Index", which is described by Vangard as: 62.5% Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. A...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In-law advice?
Replies: 24
Views: 2543

Re: In-law advice?

If you give an inlaw advice and it turns out to be good advice she’ll forget about who counseled her - she will eventually think it was her idea. OTOH if your advice doesn’t work out to her satisfaction she’ll always remember you, and your poor advice.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9090

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard STAR Fund. It beat its benchmark for as long as it has been in existence (a few weeks shy of 33 years) by 29 basis points per year. STAR is a collection of Vanguard actively managed stock and bond funds.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17779

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

If I can place an order to transfer "assets" during business hours and that money is in my bank the next day those "assets" are cash. If it takes two business days it's not cash. (Ironically that may make my margin account cash and it certainly doesn't keep up with inflation. But then margin is nor...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 17779

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

The yield curve it typically steep on the short end. Rather than holding cash as a fixed allocation to reduce volatility, I’d prefer to hold a short-term bond fund and pick up the extra yield. Help me out here. I'm looking at the Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund performance over the l...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4381

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

...A case can be made that the bond bull market, that began in 1982, ended in 2012... "In general, we have thought that this very long bull market in bonds must be somewhere near the end."--Sir John Templeton, 1993 Lets test this one out. Templeton was trying to predict the peak in interest rates i...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4381

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

Comparing the Vanguard short and intermediate-term investment grade bond funds, you are only getting 38 basis points of additional yield by holding the intermediate-term fund rather than the short-term fund. The intermediate-term fund has an average duration that is 3.1 years longer than the 2.4 yea...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund - Gamesmanship???
Replies: 27
Views: 2082

Re: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund - Gamesmanship???

That is surprising, but you are sorting by coupon rate to find the riskiest ones in the fund. If you sort by market value rather than yield, you will see that the top holdings are in fact investment grade US Treasury. The risky holdings are weighted less by orders of magnitude. Indeed. But if they'...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion
Replies: 18
Views: 2906

Re: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion

Investors are cutting their exposure to equities, and they have been for years. How is this possible? Every share sold is a share bought. Is it a buyback phenomenon? Is it that there are less equity investors but larger holdings per individual? How does this concept of "flows" really work? Take a l...
by dkturner
Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ever thought of withdrawing bond allocation first ??
Replies: 23
Views: 1892

Re: Ever thought of withdrawing bond allocation first ??

You have to be cognizant of what equity and bond markets do during the early part of your retirement. If you were to take all of your withdrawals from fixed income while equities are on a run (think 2009-2017) you might have a very low fixed income allocation as you began your ninth year of retireme...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 3082

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

Number 3 is preferable, but I wouldn’t argue with number 2.
by dkturner
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6588

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Vanguard is not an unbiased source now that they have put a fortune into attracting new customers. If the new customers pull their money outoff bond funds it's a problem for them. If Vanguard operates its funds at cost and doesn't charge 12b-1 fees, where are they getting the money to attract new c...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 168
Views: 17591

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

We have settled on a process that uses 3 separate inputs: (1) portfolio yield (2) RMD amount and (3) 4% “rule” adjusted for investment expenses. Our goal is to limit our withdrawals from our combined portfolios to the lowest of the 3 inputs. We are in our 7th year of retirement and we only exceeded ...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4853

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

The Fama and French research wasn't published until 1992, and tools in the form of mutual funds for slicing and dicing weren't available before then. For example, the DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio fund had its inception in 1993; Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund, 1998; T. Rowe Price Small-Cap ...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6899

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

I’ve been following the 20 basis points per year approach recommended by Larry Swedroe. Maturities can be extended as long as you are receiving 20 bp of additional yield for each year of increase in maturity. In the last few weeks this indicator has signaled that many intermediate term bond funds sh...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard site is crashed now?
Replies: 188
Views: 15258

Re: Vanguard site is crashed now?

samsoes wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:13 pm
Ladies and gentlemen who couldn't reach Vanguard:

Were we market timing?

Shame! :mrgreen:
Are those of us who rebalanced today “guilty” too? :moneybag
by dkturner
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity
Replies: 22
Views: 2687

Re: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity

Whether to use factor investing in addition to the above is not going to make the difference between retiring with $500K or $3M. Maybe you'll get $3.3M with some factor investing instead of $3M if you only use total market investing but there's a chance it might be $2.9M instead of $3M. I’ll take t...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living on Dividends and Interest
Replies: 58
Views: 7715

Re: Living on Dividends and Interest

I’m surprised that nobody has brought up the old saw that, although dividends rise and fall, they are more stable than principal values. True, but largely irrelevant. If one receives a dividend when the value of the underlying stock has declined in value by say 30%, she is effectively selling some o...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39185

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

You are talking about having a 50% drop THEN something worse than the great depression (or 70s inflation) immediately afterwards. I don't worry about this because the likelihood of retaining employment under these circumstances is also very slim. Folks who think a job or realestate or whatever is s...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39185

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

In preparation for our retirement in late 2011 I began running the 4% initial withdrawal rate, adjusted annually for inflation, scenario for an individual retiring at YE 1999 and YE 2007. I used the actual returns of our portfolio from the performance data provided to us by the Vanguard Group. I us...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39185

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

In preparation for our retirement in late 2011 I began running the 4% initial withdrawal rate, adjusted annually for inflation, scenario for an individual retiring at YE 1999 and YE 2007. I used the actual returns of our portfolio from the performance data provided to us by the Vanguard Group. I use...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4780

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

If you are not going to rebalance especially in a stock market correction situation, it doesn't really matter what your fixed income composition might look like. On the rare occasions when we have rebalanced, in the traditional sense, it has been one way - selling bonds and buying equities when equ...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4780

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

After doing numerous back tests on the Portfolio Visualizer it appears that, if you increase your equity exposure, a 50/50 equity/corporate bond portfolio has very similar returns, and standard deviation of those returns, to a 60/40 equity/Treasury portfolio over most periods - even for the last 10...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4780

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

Our combined portfolios consist of a 50/50 mix of equities and high quality corporate bonds (primarily Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade Fund). As the equity bull market gets longer in the tooth we have been contemplating switching our fixed income allocation to Treasuries. Between a TRSY...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4780

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

Thank you all for your thoughtful comments. After reading through your comments I went to the Portfolio Visualizer mentioned early on (I had bookmarked it on my iPad several years ago but had forgotten about it.) I compared our existing portfolios (40% domestic equity, 10% international equity, 50% ...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4780

Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

Our combined portfolios consist of a 50/50 mix of equities and high quality corporate bonds (primarily Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade Fund). As the equity bull market gets longer in the tooth we have been contemplating switching our fixed income allocation to Treasuries. We are comforta...
by dkturner
Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech
Replies: 67
Views: 6170

Re: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech

...The higher the price goes, the more the index funds have to buy. No, they don't. That's just plain wrong, and I've already explained why it's wrong. If the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund holds $20 billion in Apple stock, and the price of Apple stock doubles, then the fund needs to hold $...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech
Replies: 67
Views: 6170

Re: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech

I'm fairly new to all this, so correct me if I'm wrong. The argument against indexing seems to be that since indexes are market-cap-weighted, they cause you to buy high and sell low, and it's impossible to rebalance when a particular sector or company outperforms the rest of the market. What is the...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do I get rid of residual $1 in VG ira after rollover to employer 401k? backdoor roth pending
Replies: 14
Views: 946

Re: how do I get rid of residual $1 in VG ira after rollover to employer 401k? backdoor roth pending

boglechu wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:27 pm
dkturner wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:54 am
Why don't you just ignore the orphan $1? Let the folks at Vanguard deal with it, since it's a much bigger problem for Vanguard than it is for you.
But doesn’t the rule say u can’t do Backdoor Roth is u have any dollar amount in a remaining IRA?
D
by dkturner
Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do I get rid of residual $1 in VG ira after rollover to employer 401k? backdoor roth pending
Replies: 14
Views: 946

Re: how do I get rid of residual $1 in VG ira after rollover to employer 401k? backdoor roth pending

Why don't you just ignore the orphan $1? Let the folks at Vanguard deal with it, since it's a much bigger problem for Vanguard than it is for you.
by dkturner
Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Index Funds Benchmark Change - Update
Replies: 10
Views: 1253

Re: Vanguard Government Index Funds Benchmark Change - Update

On Friday Vanguard should release the November 30 portfolio construction information for all of its funds. Alright, the November EOM portfolio has been published. And at least for the short-term Treasury Index fund (VSBSX) there is still virtually no change in the portfolio. There is 7.5% non us-tr...