Search found 1378 matches

by dkturner
Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What active management stock funds would you own?
Replies: 75
Views: 4312

Re: What active management stock funds would you own?

Vanguard Minimum Volatility Fund in R/O IRA when the market is highly valued. Vanguard Primecap Fund when valuations are more reasonable, bearing in mind that “highly valued” and “reasonable” are in the eyes of the beholder.
by dkturner
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds A Bad Buy
Replies: 7
Views: 511

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds A Bad Buy

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-hedge-funds-bad-buy State and Municipal pension plans have been trying to outperform the markets in an effort to meet their liabilities. Over the last roughly 20 years, pension funds have tried to increase returns by increasing allocations ...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Advantage Account - Bill Pay
Replies: 4
Views: 387

Re: Vanguard Advantage Account - Bill Pay

We have had a Vanguard Advantage Account for about 12 years but have never activated Bill Pay. Has anyone had experience with this feature? If so, is it simple to use? Does it work smoothly and accurately? It works the same as any other billpay. You set up the payee information:name, address, telep...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Advantage Account - Bill Pay
Replies: 4
Views: 387

Vanguard Advantage Account - Bill Pay

We have had a Vanguard Advantage Account for about 12 years but have never activated Bill Pay. Has anyone had experience with this feature? If so, is it simple to use? Does it work smoothly and accurately?
by dkturner
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dispersion says we’re close to a value cycle (BoAML)
Replies: 5
Views: 1005

Re: Dispersion says we’re close to a value cycle (BoAML)

Suppose your value tilt strategy is to buy the bottom half of stocks ranked by P/E. Wouldn't you put more money in this strategy if the average P/E ratios in the top and bottom halves are 30 and 10 than if they are 21 and 19? In the latter case I might just own the cap-weighted index. What you are ...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your year end portfolio review
Replies: 1
Views: 300

Re: Your year end portfolio review

Every year about this time I write my "Portfolio Review" to file so I know what I was thinking about several years ago. I benchmark my equities to the Russell 3000 ^RUA and the fixed income to Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate US Govt/Credit TR Index Value Unhedged LF97TRUU:IND. My portfolio doesn't ...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings new research
Replies: 29
Views: 5594

Re: Retirement savings new research

It is similar (overlapping) what Wade Phau says that when you retire that getting through the first few years is everything. He prefers a higher concentration in bonds and then slowly increasing your stock holdings I think that's a mischaracterisation. He prefers you not hold any bonds at all. Read...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 29
Views: 1854

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

At the end of 2010 this is what GMO forecast. US large cap was going to have 0.4% real returns, developed intl large 2.1% and emerging markets 4.1%. They were quite wrong. https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/4d31b747ccd1d5ed12210000-960-655.jpg Historically GMO has never had any luck divining wh...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10628

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

I’ve always been suspicious of the mischief associated with benchmarking too. Many years ago I decided to benchmark our equity holdings to the total market indices (U.S. and International - based on our relative allocations). I benchmark our fixed income holdings to the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you view a savings surplus in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 5972

Re: How do you view a savings surplus in retirement?

A 4% rule based on your balance on one particular day seems problematic. You would have gotten a much different result had the day been in March of 2008 vs. March 2009, for example. I think the point that seems to get overlooked is if you have a 95% chance of success (success being an ending balanc...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those retired a few years
Replies: 58
Views: 4768

Re: For those retired a few years

We found that the biggest savings consisted of reductions in health insurance premiums/costs and elimination of FICA taxes. Unfortunately those savings have been offset by increases in travel and leisure expenses.
by dkturner
Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you view a savings surplus in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 5972

Re: How do you view a savings surplus in retirement?

We divide our portfolios into two separate parts, a “retirement” portfolio and an “surplus” portfolio. The retirement portfolio consists of our tax deferred retirement accounts and is conservatively invested (70% fixed income). Unless a catastrophe strikes us we should make it through retirement con...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15578

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I always find it interesting to note when posts pop up. This post questioning Int'l vs US pops up after a decade of underperformance. Similar threads pop up re Value when it was outperforming. Now everyone thinks the tilt alpha is gone. I recall ~12-14 years ago when Int'l was beating (both VINEX a...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15578

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

If you had an investment fund that gave you 8.9% since 1970 you probably wouldn't be complaining "Well, gee, I could have done better in the S&P 500!" I certainly would feel shortchanged. $10,000 invested in 1970 with an 8.9% return would be worth $770,849 today. If the return is increased to 10.2%...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15578

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I always find it interesting to note when posts pop up. This post questioning Int'l vs US pops up after a decade of underperformance. Similar threads pop up re Value when it was outperforming. Now everyone thinks the tilt alpha is gone. I recall ~12-14 years ago when Int'l was beating (both VINEX a...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15578

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I always find it interesting to note when posts pop up. This post questioning Int'l vs US pops up after a decade of underperformance. Similar threads pop up re Value when it was outperforming. Now everyone thinks the tilt alpha is gone. I recall ~12-14 years ago when Int'l was beating (both VINEX a...
by dkturner
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 128
Views: 7360

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I have been watching this fund for a while and started adding it to my portfolio since last year. It has been doing very well since inception. Now I'm seriously considering using this fund as my core equity holding instead of US/foreign (currently 64/36). I have read many discussions about this fun...
by dkturner
Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?
Replies: 71
Views: 5552

Re: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?

When we took our annual RMDs from our IRAs earlier in December we withdrew solely from the fixed income portion of our accounts, which resulted in an INCREASE in the amount of our assets invested in equities. We put the net proceeds (after income tax withholding) in a Money Market Account, which we ...
by dkturner
Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach says passive investing has reached 'mania' status and says investors should avoid index funds
Replies: 52
Views: 5352

Re: Gundlach says passive investing has reached 'mania' status and says investors should avoid index funds

A "mania" occurs when irrational demand drives up asset prices to an insane level. Exactly what prices have been driven up to insane levels by passive investors? For example, what index ETFs are trading at three times their NAV because of investors being willing to pay more for stocks when they are...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ditch your index funds --- riiiiight
Replies: 8
Views: 1486

Re: Ditch your index funds --- riiiiight

"I think you should focus on companies with low debt levels. The companies that get hurt the most when the economy slows are high-debt companies," he said. "This is now a stock picker's market , so it's time to ditch your index funds." I can't count how many times I have heard this ridiculous state...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 128
Views: 7360

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Beware though the future prospects of a strategy that is now well documented in the literature. I think Larry Swedroe has written on it (Larry has become very pro for Momentum, which is an investing strategy which really scares me - thinking January 2009 in particular). I’m not sure I am following ...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 128
Views: 7360

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Beware though the future prospects of a strategy that is now well documented in the literature. I think Larry Swedroe has written on it (Larry has become very pro for Momentum, which is an investing strategy which really scares me - thinking January 2009 in particular). I’m not sure I am following ...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 6091

Re: vanguard-founder-bogle-says-buy-bonds

I'll throw one of Mr. Bogle's better advice that fits any scenario... (paraphrasing) "When everyone is doing something the best thing is to stand there and do nothing". I think this is better advice then alter any long term portfolio due to some macroeconomic event that may or may not make a differ...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 6091

Re: Our mentor advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market

Hmmm... sell stocks and buy bonds because a drop in stocks is coming ... sounds a heckuva lot like market timing to me. Not that that is always a bad idea, but it is heresy to most "Bogleheads." Mr. Bogle NEVER recommends market timing. However,he isn’t averse to valuation driven capital redeployme...
by dkturner
Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A lot of us expected a US stock "pull back" is this it?
Replies: 61
Views: 8596

Re: A lot of us expected a US stock "pull back" is this it?

This is A pullback, but not necessarily THE pullback you are expecting, although it may be the beginning of The Big One. Stay tuned, we’ll all find out together.
by dkturner
Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 9479

Re: no dividends in index funds!

I wanted the quarterly dividends like I used to get with the blue chip stocks. It would just be additional income, often just at the right times. It was great to get a quarterly $800.00 dividend check. With the Index Funds I am lucky to get $300.00 quarterly for dividends.... Your index fund manage...
by dkturner
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does your gut tell you; RMD now or in December?
Replies: 38
Views: 2289

Re: What does your gut tell you; RMD now or in December?

Don't take your RMD late in the year--if you die then your beneficiary has to scramble to take the RMD in a very small window. As you age simplicity and reducing complexity are more important than maximizing returns in my view. True but toward the end of the year makes it easier to use the RMD to m...
by dkturner
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1224

Re: What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?

The importance of investing in low cost funds, whether active or index, and using very low turnover funds (primarily index funds) in taxable accounts.
by dkturner
Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3933

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

duplicate
by dkturner
Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 2111

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 2111

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?
Replies: 10
Views: 2280

Re: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?

Swensen’s model portfolio allocates only 30% of principal to fixed income, which is a pretty low allocation for the average investor. With a low fixed income allocation the quality of the fixed income becomes very important. That certainly points one in the direction of U.S. Treasury securities, so ...
by dkturner
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The first million is the hardest?
Replies: 46
Views: 9385

Re: The first million is the hardest?

I remember a quote, from a member of the Bronfman family I believe: “Making $100 grow to $200 is hard work, making $100 million grow to $200 million is inevitable”
by dkturner
Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...
Replies: 22
Views: 3629

Re: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:45 am
Stay the course.
Even if you were heading for the rocks when you set “the” (as opposed to “a”) course?
by dkturner
Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 7059

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

By reading this forum I have always felt like most users here think CAPE and other stocks valuations are useless. The only motto for many people seems to be: "buy&hold, never mind stocks valuations, just buy&hold!" It's just called "buy&hold"; You don't actually just hold your stocks and bonds! Wha...
by dkturner
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 7059

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Mr. Bogle, were he to post under a pseudonym, would likely be hooted out of the forum that bears his name. He is not as doctrinaire as we suppose. He has a flexible mind, thinks aloud, floats ideas, and speaks his mind. I will say that over his lifetime that his underlying philosophy has been remar...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International equities versus USA domestic
Replies: 6
Views: 554

Re: International equities versus USA domestic

Since many US companies are international, how important is it to have non-US equities in your portfolio? There are several ways to view this, I am curious what others thoughts are on this issue? The fact that US companies sell their products and services in other countries doesn't get you the bene...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2746

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

If you don’t know how long you will live, and don’t know what life might throw at you, how can you be “confident” that you have sufficient resources to last for the rest of your life?
by dkturner
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3376

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

When a portfolio diversified across sources of return outperforms, it’s significant. When it underperforms, the shortfall tends to be pretty small. That’s an interesting point. Our portfolios have had a value tilt for most of the last 20 years. For the last 10 years (2008-2017) we outperformed our ...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3376

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

When a portfolio diversified across sources of return outperforms, it’s significant. When it underperforms, the shortfall tends to be pretty small. That’s an interesting point. Our portfolios have had a value tilt for most of the last 20 years. For the last 10 years (2008-2017) we outperformed our ...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 19 years maturity, and only a FOUR year duration?
Replies: 4
Views: 591

Re: 19 years maturity, and only a FOUR year duration?

How can a bond fund with such long average maturity (~19 years) have such a short (~4 yrs) duration? http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/MKNKX/quote.html If average coupon payments were super-high, I can see how this can MAYBE happen - but they aren't. Impending call provisions could be another r...
by dkturner
Mon May 28, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing?
Replies: 20
Views: 2031

Re: Factor Investing?

Factor investing seems to work best when there had been widely varying performances of different asset classes over the prior decade. As several posters have noted that had been the case in the period 1998-2006, but not recently. Unless you consider international stocks to be a “factor” there really...
by dkturner
Thu May 24, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's new posting rules
Replies: 16
Views: 1502

Re: Morningstar's new posting rules

All engines stop. In the way I read Mister Taylor's post is that you have to log in each time you try to reply to a post, even if you were already logged in. If that's the case then adios M* (note, my last post at M* was number 14,000 early last year, I no longer go to the forums). Gracias por leer...
by dkturner
Mon May 21, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend / no dividend index funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 3333

Re: Dividend / no dividend index funds?

Here’s an idea. Are any funds available like this? No dividend capital appreciation fund. Contains market cap weighted stocks from US Total Stock Market, but only those that do not pay any dividend. Tries to liquidate stocks that transition to paying a dividend to institutional investors through ET...
by dkturner
Tue May 15, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1976

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

I will give a different opinion: Most market corrections are of the "ordinary" kind, just due to economic cycles and lower expected earnings for most companies. However, 2008 was very different, IMO. Our economic system was coming apart at the seems with major companies going bankrupt. Lehman Broth...
by dkturner
Fri May 04, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap
Replies: 62
Views: 9732

Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Warren Buffett, who probably knows more than all of us on individual stock investing, and who reads hundreds of annual reports a year, noted he would not be investing in Apple. It appears he's changed his mind. He bought another 75 million shares 1st quarter, likely making it his top holding. The n...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10628

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

I did a comparison of the Vanguard Multifactor mutual fund (VFMFX) with the DFA Core fund (DFTCX) and found them to be close in composition. The Vanguard Fund has a larger allocation to small- cap stocks and is slightly more “Valuey”. It will be interesting to see how the two funds perform going for...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 140
Views: 28933

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

For most of us it depends on a combination of yield, security and convenience. Personally I prefer the Vanguard Advantage Account to online bank money market accounts. As to yield the current number for the VAA Account settlement fund is 1.41%, with no fees. The settlement fund is invested in the F...
by dkturner
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?
Replies: 38
Views: 3745

Re: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?

They can’t grow without limits, but tech stocks can encompass a much larger segment of stock market capitalization. A single huge tech company can continue to grow at double didget rates by spinning off subsiaries, which can in turn grow at double digit rates.
by dkturner
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 7342

Re: Factor Investing - A convincing article

One way to view the extra risk of value stocks is when they do poorly. Value stocks may get hit harder in a recession than safer growth stocks. The extra risk is the stock does poorly at the same time I lose my job: doing badly in bad times. Dave Why would value stocks do worse in a recession? I wo...