Search found 1929 matches

by dkturner
Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Minimum Required Distributions Wrinkle
Replies: 11
Views: 1480

Re: Minimum Required Distributions Wrinkle

It’s a sensible rule that acknowledges that ordinary employees who wish to continue to work beyond age 72 (soon to be 75) shouldn’t be required to start their retirement distributions until they actually stop working. To avoid manipulation by owners of closely held companies there are a variety of constraints - the 5% ownership rule being the primary one.
by dkturner
Fri Mar 15, 2024 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]
Replies: 2094
Views: 215686

Re: New fee for Vanguard mutual [and brokerage accounts - July 2023 updates]

We receive every communication from Vanguard in paper form and have had both Vanguard mutual fund accounts and a Vanguard brokerage account for more than ten years. We have never been charged a fee by Vanguard for anything.

(1) When is this annual fee charged?

(2) What does Vanguard sell to get the $25?

The reason I ask is that, as of last month, all of our Vanguard accounts are now brokerage accounts and I’m curious about what they would sell in a taxable account to get their $25. I would hate to have to file a schedule D for a $25 transaction resulting in a $1.53 capital gain.
by dkturner
Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age 60+ AND retired? What's your asset allocation? What type of bonds/Fixed Inc instruments do you use?
Replies: 57
Views: 8526

Re: Age 60+ AND retired? What's your asset allocation? What type of bonds/Fixed Inc instruments do you use?

81 and 77, retired 12 years.
60/40 portfolio.
Fixed income: 14% nominal Treasuries, 26% inflation adjusted Treasuries, 60% corporates (75% “A” or better).
by dkturner
Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.
Replies: 59
Views: 4612

Re: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.

Only three of the firms produced positive Alpha. That should tell you all you need to know about active management outperforming an index.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 13, 2024 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just for fun, what single stock do you think will see huge growth
Replies: 174
Views: 27397

Re: Just for fun, what single stock do you think will see huge growth

Just for fun I looked up the first ten “single best recommendations” (made back in August 2023) to see what their performance looked like going forward. I looked at performance between 8/26/2023 and 3/12/2024. Average total return for the first ten recommendations was 32.50%. Total return for the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund 34.86%. The returns for the first ten recommendations ran from -25.59 (TSLA) to +99.73% (NVDA).
by dkturner
Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread
Replies: 1512
Views: 167413

Re: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread

We recently got a new Vanguard rep, who called to introduce himself to us. We converted our remaining old mutual accounts to brokerage accounts and experienced problems with prior agent authorities not transferring over to the new accounts. Our agent was very helpful in getting things straightened out - but it took time and he had to go to specialized areas of the company to get the authorizations activated for the brokerage accounts. I asked him if he had ever heard of the Bogleheads website and he had. I told him there is a long thread on Bogleheads about the problem of agent authorizations not transferring over when converting to brokerage accounts - and there’s some indication that the problem may occur primarily when clients do the con...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 07, 2024 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do you tax-loss harvest?
Replies: 15
Views: 1502

Re: When do you tax-loss harvest?

During market downturns - that’s usually when you get the biggest losses to harvest.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reinvest or withdraw Dividends to supplement income stream in Retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 3011

Re: Reinvest or withdraw Dividends to supplement income stream in Retirement?

You are going to be taxed on all the dividend income (qualified or not) from your taxable accounts anyway, so you might as well use it as a prime source of income. Proceeds from sales resulting in a tax deductible loss would be high on your list as well. Proceeds from sales resulting in long term gains come next, followed by proceeds resulting in short term gains as a last resort.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax filing using PDF
Replies: 22
Views: 1424

Re: tax filing using PDF

popoki wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2024 1:37 pm Zie is correct, you cannot email to the IRS, you must use the postal service. Now, do you trust the post office to deliver, and do you trust the IRS to open the mail in a timely manner? No way I would file by mail unless there was no e-file option.
The IRS will open all of the income tax returns where the taxpayer owes money in a timely manner (you can tell they owe money because they go to a P.O. Box only for taxpayers who owe money). Returns due a refund? maybe not as timely. 😢
by dkturner
Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: some turbo tax questions and paper filing
Replies: 30
Views: 2469

Re: some turbo tax questions and paper filing

If you download the Vanguard 1099-DIV data will it indicate the $ amount of U.S. Government dividend income that is necessary for proper completion of your state income tax return by TurboTax?
by dkturner
Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund exchanges broken? - Vanguard mutual fund account
Replies: 17
Views: 1271

Re: Fund exchanges broken? - Vanguard mutual fund account

I got the same message this morning in a brokerage account.
by dkturner
Wed Feb 21, 2024 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you do better than BND?
Replies: 278
Views: 35082

Re: Can you do better than BND?

Historically, yes. Equal allocations to Vanguard’s actively managed Intermediate-Term Treasury, GNMA and Investment Grade Funds performed better, than BND.
by dkturner
Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Significance of Standard Deviation measurement in a portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 2601

Re: Significance of Standard Deviation measurement in a portfolio

I have always been amused in that a portfolio of U.S. Treasuries has a higher standard deviation than a portfolio that mimics the total U.S. bond market. It’s true, of course, but should be irrelevant to an investor who holds a portfolio with a substantial allocation to equities. The higher the equity allocation, the more value U.S. Treasuries add in mitigating portfolio decline when the equity ship hits the sand - as it does from time to time. Think 2000-2002, 2008 and early 2020. Bill Bernstein and Larry Swedroe have written extensively about this issue. Funny you should mentioned this, this has been on my mind lately that US Treasury has a stdev that is higher than total bond market, but that might make sense since it's less diverse. If...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 19, 2024 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consolidating Investment Accounts
Replies: 16
Views: 2645

Re: Consolidating Investment Accounts

Will Fidelity allow you to continue to hold Admiral class shares of Vanguard mutual funds if you transfer them to Fidelity in kind?
by dkturner
Sun Feb 18, 2024 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Significance of Standard Deviation measurement in a portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 2601

Re: Significance of Standard Deviation measurement in a portfolio

I have always been amused in that a portfolio of U.S. Treasuries has a higher standard deviation than a portfolio that mimics the total U.S. bond market. It’s true, of course, but should be irrelevant to an investor who holds a portfolio with a substantial allocation to equities.

The higher the equity allocation, the more value U.S. Treasuries add in mitigating portfolio decline when the equity ship hits the sand - as it does from time to time. Think 2000-2002, 2008 and early 2020. Bill Bernstein and Larry Swedroe have written extensively about this issue.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]
Replies: 369
Views: 58278

Re: Accuracy of Vanguard Portfolio Watch Returns

retired@50 wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 12:24 pm I don't see returns in Portfolio Watch, but I do see them on the "Performance" tab.

Is that what you mean?

Regards,
Yes - sorry for the mixup in names.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]
Replies: 369
Views: 58278

Accuracy of Vanguard Portfolio Watch Returns

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek] I use an Excel spreadsheet for keeping track of my portfolio returns. I use the XIRR formula for calculating the annualized returns for each year. When I compare my Excel returns with Vanguard Portfolio Watch returns for 1 and 3 years they are virtually identical, year after year. however when I compare Excel 5 an 10 year returns with Portfolio Watch Returns my Excel annualized returns are always approximately 1 percentage point lower than the 5 and 10 year Portfolio Watch returns. This has been the case for about the last 4 or 5 years. I never paid any attention to Portfolio Watch prior to about 2020, so I have no idea how long this disparity has been going on. Has anybody else experienced this p...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Powers of attorney @ Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 1259

Re: Powers of attorney @ Vanguard

I seem to recall that the POA authorization needs to be redone when converting from the MF platform to brokerage. … I recall this too from a past forum thread about transitioning from the Vanguard mutual fund platform to the brokerage platform. OP, did you do this online yourself or by phone with a rep?IIRC from the past thread this happened when doing the transition online DIY but other posters were successful in having the agent authorizations transfer platforms by doing the transition by phone with a rep. Edit - here is such a post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7482575#p7482575 We did our transitions to brokerage online by ourselves. Everything was perfect and it was all done within 24 hours - except for the POA tran...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Powers of attorney @ Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 1259

Re: Powers of attorney @ Vanguard

Thanks for all of the input. I decided to send a message to my vanguard account rep. He told me that the authorizations in place for mutual fund accounts are supposed to transfer to the resulting brokerage accounts, but it doesn’t always happen. He said Vanguard would take care of making sure the appropriate authorizations are included in the new accounts - but it might take a few days.
by dkturner
Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trustee disclosures (1041 tax return/1099s etc)
Replies: 6
Views: 774

Re: Trustee disclosures (1041 tax return/1099s etc)

Take a look at box 14 on your k-1. The IRS instructions for this box has a list of codes, for providing additional information. Code ZZ is for all other items of information. The instructions give several examples of the types of information that can be provided. It appears that the solution for the fiduciary could be to add an attachment to the k-1 adding the $ amount of state deductible U.S. government interest. FWIW, my state doesn’t have a K-1 for our state fiduciary income tax returns. I had been trustee of a trust with state deductible U.S. government interest, and simply attached a cover letter to my K-1s that told each beneficiary the amount of state deductible U.S. interest. CAUTION: You have to be careful here if reporting U.S. in...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Powers of attorney @ Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 1259

Powers of attorney @ Vanguard

My wife and I had filed Vanguard’s power of attorney forms for our mutual fund accounts several years ago, and we have been using them for making transactions for each other’s accounts.

Earlier this month we bit the bullet and transferred our remaining Vanguard mutual funds accounts to their brokerage platform. The transfer was quick and accurate, BUT we no longer have the ability to perform transactions for each other’s accounts. Has anyone else experienced this issue?
by dkturner
Tue Feb 13, 2024 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you do better than BND?
Replies: 278
Views: 35082

Re: Can you do better than BND?

Of course you can do better than Total Bond. But at what cost, in terms of volatility? And by how much? Material adduced in this thread will be largely in accordance with a point that nisiprius has pressed: you can fiddle with the components of your bond allocation all you want, but it won’t make a rodent’s rear-end difference to your overall portfolio return, in comparison to the difference it makes to have this much more allocated to stocks, and this much less allocated to bonds of any kind. Our first pair of propositions: Stock-bond allocation: huge. Within-bond allocation: splitting hairs. That’s the theory, anyway, and on the face of it, a good theory: not least, because it’s falsifiable using finite empirical data. This thread makes ...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 08, 2024 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meta becomes a dividend payer.
Replies: 43
Views: 5034

Re: Meta becomes a dividend payer.

The Buttonwood column in today’s issue of The Economist talks about this particular event and discusses the pros and cons of dividends vs stock buybacks.
by dkturner
Thu Feb 08, 2024 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No Love For BND?
Replies: 183
Views: 16310

Re: Why No Love For BND?

I have never understood the love affair between Bogleheads and BND. Even Jack Bogle thought it had too much government bond exposure and not enough corporate bond exposure. Looking at the long-term (30 year) performance of Vanguard’s intermediate-term taxable bond fund offerings both Treasury and Intermediate-Term have had higher annualized returns than Total Bond, with considerably lower maximum drawdowns (when the ship hits the sand).😁 If you into safety why not go with a treasury only fund? If you want a mix of government and corporate bonds why not go with one of the other blended offerings?
by dkturner
Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price premium for S&P500 index? Stocks for the Long Run author believes so
Replies: 17
Views: 3163

Re: Price premium for S&P500 index? Stocks for the Long Run author believes so

Does anyone recall what happened when Tesla stock (which had been included in total stock market indices for some time) was added to the S&P 500 index? The announcement was made on Nov. 16, 2020 that TSLA would be added on Dec. 21, 2020. Yes. This was interesting because usually stocks are relatively small when they are added to the S&P 500. TSLA was large, constituting something like 1% of the stock market; its entry was delayed because of an S&P 500 inclusion rule requiring four consecutive quarters of profit, which Tesla hadn't had. There was widespread rhetoric implying that something cataclysmic was going to happen when it was added to the S&P 500 and S&P 500 funds would need to buy it all at once. It was said that...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price premium for S&P500 index? Stocks for the Long Run author believes so
Replies: 17
Views: 3163

Re: Price premium for S&P500 index? Stocks for the Long Run author believes so

Does anyone recall what happened when Tesla stock (which had been included in total stock market indices for some time) was added to the S&P 500 index? The announcement was made on Nov. 16, 2020 that TSLA would be added on Dec. 21, 2020.
by dkturner
Mon Jan 29, 2024 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS As A Supplement to Bonds in Retirement
Replies: 77
Views: 7840

Re: REITS As A Supplement to Bonds in Retirement

Just an overall comment, and people can decide if this is a helpful underlining or not, is that it is a common source of confusion that somehow or another the only means by which a person can take a withdrawal from wealth stored as a portfolio of stocks and bonds is to arrange the assets according to dividends and interest paid in order to get the withdrawal wanted. This is in the face of the obvious other means of taking a withdrawal of selling some shares of an asset and withdrawing the proceeds of the sale. I often find myself puzzled where this "income" presumption comes from as it is a common one. Clearly it is conventional to label dividends and interest paid by assets as income to the portfolio, distinct from losses or gai...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:34 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂
Replies: 429
Views: 41950

Re: 🎁 🎉Happy 100th Birthday to Taylor Larimore 🎊🎂

Happy birthday, Taylor!

It’s been great communicating with you over the last 20 years or so. Keep up the good work.
by dkturner
Sat Jan 20, 2024 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Closes at Record High
Replies: 203
Views: 26149

Re: S&P 500 Closes at Record High

retireIn2020 wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2024 1:18 am Do you have data that shows the 60/40 didn't keep up with inflation? Like I said, I would love to see that data.
A 60/40 portfolio would have done fine over all of the rolling 30 year periods from 1900-1929 to 1994-2023. A 60/40 portfolio of stocks and long-term treasury bonds would have produced inflation adjusted returns from a low of 2.5% (1955-1984) to a high of 8.6% (1982-2011). If you substitute Treasury bills for long-term Treasury bonds the results go from a low of 3.0% (1912-1941) to a high of 6.4% (1975-2004).
by dkturner
Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar article: Do Stocks Really Make Sense for the Long Run?
Replies: 180
Views: 26842

Re: Morningstar article: Do Stocks Really Make Sense for the Long Run?

A while back I “discovered” something interesting while perusing stock and bond data going back to 1900. Both Treasury bills and long-term Treasury bonds have provided positive real returns for the last 124 years, but the bonds returned a substantial 1.7% real annualized return, while the bills returned a puny real annualized return of only .3%. However if we look at the real returns of 60/40 stocks and fixed income securities portfolios (rebalanced annually), the portfolio with long-term bonds produced a real annualized return of 5.0% and the portfolio with short-term bills returned a real 4.5%. That’s not much of a difference. FWIW a 100% equity portfolio produced a real annualized return of 6.4%.
by dkturner
Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Table of Returns updated for 3-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 1343

Re: Table of Returns updated for 3-Fund Portfolio

Hi, Taylor.

If you want to add a few years to your table here are the numbers going back to 1970, which was the first year of data for the MSCI EAFE index of international stocks. Bond returns for these early years is an issue, so I’m using the data for 10 year U.S. Treasuries.

1970 5.6 16.8 3.9 (13.4)
1971 3.3 9.8 14.6 33.3
1972 3.4 2.8 19.9 40.4
1973 8.7 3.7 (14.8) (10.7)
1974 12.3 2.0 (26.4) (18.5)
1975 6.9 3.6 37.2 32.8
by dkturner
Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should IPS contain a definition of success?
Replies: 37
Views: 4089

Re: Should IPS contain a definition of success?

DSBH wrote: Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:26 am “Stay the course” is mine.
So, if your ship hits the sand do you stay on board and wait to be rescued or lower a lifeboat?
by dkturner
Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD 2024
Replies: 20
Views: 3282

Re: RMD 2024

Is there a timed approach to take RMD? My Rollover IRA account consist of one holding, the Total Bond Market Admiral shares, and the required RMD is 13.5K. As of now I am intending to take in-kind transfer to my taxable brokerage account. Please help. Thanks, you're asking if there's a best way to do it? Like do you take RMD at the beginning of the year or wait til the end of the year, or some other time altogether? You're asking a market timing question. The best time can only be known after the fact. One thing if you take it at the beginning of the year is if you get it out of the way so you don't have to worry about it later or forget about it. Also since there's always a chance we can die in the future, it's probably best to get it don...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you view portfolio risk differently when you retired
Replies: 32
Views: 3806

Re: Do you view portfolio risk differently when you retired

gavinsiu wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:14 am For people who are retired, does no longer contribute to your portfolio and instead withdraw from it raised your anxiety? Did you eventually recover from the feeling.

I have personally been aggressively in my allocation for most of my life but I wonder if I will feel the same at retirement.
We gradually reduced our equity exposure down to 50% several years prior to our retirement at YE 2011. Held the 50/50 allocation for ten years, then increased our equity exposure back to 60% during 2021-2022. In hindsight the reduction to 50/50 was a bad move, but we slept better at night from 2012 to 2021.
by dkturner
Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse drawdown for retirees
Replies: 12
Views: 2303

Re: Reverse drawdown for retirees

Would anyone do this? I think so, yes. I also think you will be subjectively living through that first year of retirement, and what they might not be simulating is your preference to sell one asset class or the other. After about 10 years, you'll know how sequence of returns treated you, and so the "risk" is no longer a risk. The rest is pretty irrelevant. I don't know if I personally will want to drop down as low as they did on the equities right around the retirement date. That's pretty low. I'm the kind of person who would be at the high points before and after and I may not be the kind of person who'd be at the low point in the middle. We dropped from 60/40 to 50/50 four years before retirement. Completed 10 years of retireme...
by dkturner
Sun Dec 24, 2023 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend skipping
Replies: 23
Views: 2054

Re: Dividend skipping

muffins14 wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2023 11:08 am What if the cost of paying LTCG is higher than the cost of paying tax on dividends?


It’s usually the other way around. A qualified dividend is full taxed at a reduced rate. A long-term capital gain has the same reduced tax rate - but only on the capital appreciation portion of the proceeds.
by dkturner
Sat Dec 23, 2023 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD distributions no longer transferred to non-retirement accounts
Replies: 45
Views: 9241

Re: RMD distributions no longer transferred to non-retirement accounts

Redlee wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 4:06 am I am just now running into this problem.

Taking the RMD, Vanguard did not give me the option to transfer it to our non-retirement account. It only gave me options to have a check mailed out or for an electronic transfer to a non-Vanguard account.

So I am having it transferred to Fidelity.

I do not see how Vanguard's policy benefits Vanguard or Vanguard customers.
I believe that if you call Vanguard you can ask the Vanguard rep. to manually transfer your RMD to your taxable account. I ran into your problem back in 2012 and was able to resolve it. With the push to create all brokerage accounts this may no longer be possible though.
by dkturner
Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Essentially target date funds become too conservative
Replies: 83
Views: 10589

Re: Essentially target date funds become too conservative

dkturner wrote: The “ideal” equity allocation should depend on the percentage of your portfolio you are consuming each year in retirement. Bill Bernstein has been playing this song for the last few years, but very few people seem to be listening to it. I am having a strong case of Confirmation Bias. The notion that one's allocation should be at least partly related to one's burn rate is something I have felt in my gut over the years, but never saw it mentioned here or elsewhere, and I haven't read his work. Bernstein talked about it in an interview in July 2023 on Morningstar’s The Long View . Bill Bernstein: Revisiting ‘The Four Pillars of Investing’ To me it’s just so obvious. For whatever reason, most people like to continue accumulatin...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Essentially target date funds become too conservative
Replies: 83
Views: 10589

Re: Essentially target date funds become too conservative

The “ideal” equity allocation should depend on the percentage of your portfolio you are consuming each year in retirement. Bill Bernstein has been playing this song for the last few years, but very few people seem to be listening to it.
by dkturner
Sun Dec 17, 2023 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2024 Stock Returns Already Happened
Replies: 27
Views: 4491

Re: 2024 Stock Returns Already Happened

samsoes wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2023 9:44 am How is this actionable?
If you believe Goldman Sachs is a knowledgeable source of future stock market return wisdom you can improve your return, and lower your risk, by buying 1 year Treasury bills instead of holding equities.
by dkturner
Sun Dec 17, 2023 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Illusion of the Small Cap premium
Replies: 121
Views: 17198

Re: The Illusion of the Small Cap premium

marcopolo wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:46 pm
LrngToFly wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:23 pm I’m a bit of a disciple of Paul Merriman. He professes that small cap value is good. Use portfoliovisualizer to see what DFA’s SCV fund has done. DFSVX The article uses DFA’s small cap fund DFSTX. With a portfolio such as 2/3rds VTSMX amd 1/3 DFSVX, with annual rebalancing, SCV historically improves returns.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... s8uywyEBeP
Honest question.
Have all SCV funds outperformed like this, or is this a form of picking the winners after the fact?
Same results if you substitute the Vanguard Small Value and Small Cap funds.
by dkturner
Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any study that checked which stock category historically had higher probability of positive returns over 10 year periods
Replies: 6
Views: 1095

Re: Any study that checked which stock category historically had higher probability of positive returns over 10 year per

This doesn’t answer your question but it might point you in the right direction.

From 1979 through 2022 Russell 1000 Growth had negative NOMINAL returns 20% of the time. Russell 1000 Value 20%, Russell 2000 Growth 30%, Russell 2000 Value 27%.

Using data from Dimensional Fund Advisors for the period 1927-1978 the % of losing years was Large Growth 29%, large Value 37%, Small Growth 35%, Small Value 35%.
by dkturner
Thu Dec 14, 2023 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with math on number of millionaire households
Replies: 16
Views: 3965

Re: Help with math on number of millionaire households

Nate79 wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2023 7:18 am
GuyInFL wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2023 7:15 am A lot of times NW surveys exclude home equity. I didn't see the exclusion in the WSJ article.
I find it interesting that pensions aren't addressed. Seems like a present value calculation would be reasonable. Adding that would bump up the number of millionaires a bit more.
Then you could also add Social Security to NW.
Pensions and Social Security are income items - just like the income from your employment. To the extent any of your pension, Social Security or employment income is actually saved it’s included in current net worth.
by dkturner
Wed Dec 13, 2023 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can vanguard force transition to brokerage platform?
Replies: 207
Views: 30875

Re: Vanguard mutual fund account conversion

What about account owners who don't sign the brokerage agreement? Presumably it's illegal to fake a person's agreement. I don't think Vanguard would do that. So what will they do to nudge/force people to agree to VBS? 1) increase the quarterly account/fund fee even higher than it is now. 2) for people with mutual funds-only accounts, reduce or make difficult online access to account and trading abilities (no sarcasm please about Vanguard doing that already :)) 3) transfer responsibility for servicing mutual fund-only accounts to a third party. 4) "nuclear" option: liquidate the funds and send the proceeds to the investor. Okay, I'm making this one up. 5) ??? Just a guess on my part but I don't think they will actually force anyon...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 13, 2023 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can vanguard force transition to brokerage platform?
Replies: 207
Views: 30875

Re: Vanguard mutual fund account conversion

What about account owners who don't sign the brokerage agreement? Presumably it's illegal to fake a person's agreement. I don't think Vanguard would do that. So what will they do to nudge/force people to agree to VBS? 1) increase the quarterly account/fund fee even higher than it is now. 2) for people with mutual funds-only accounts, reduce or make difficult online access to account and trading abilities (no sarcasm please about Vanguard doing that already :)) 3) transfer responsibility for servicing mutual fund-only accounts to a third party. 4) "nuclear" option: liquidate the funds and send the proceeds to the investor. Okay, I'm making this one up. 5) ??? Just a guess on my part but I don't think they will actually force anyon...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 13, 2023 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can vanguard force transition to brokerage platform?
Replies: 207
Views: 30875

Vanguard mutual fund account conversion

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

I received a phone call from my Vanguard account rep this morning. He informed me that sometime in 2024 Vanguard would transition all remaining mutual fund accounts to the new brokerage platform. I told him I was expecting this and had no problem with the transition, but was not going to do anything in the meantime because I prefer the old mutual fund account format (we have both types of account).
by dkturner
Sun Dec 10, 2023 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth divergence is at all time high
Replies: 66
Views: 9663

Re: Value vs Growth divergence is at all time high

If you have a U.S. centric equity portfolio and are concerned with growth stock valuations you can kill two birds with one stone by shifting some of your holdings to international equities.
by dkturner
Sun Dec 10, 2023 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporter doing story on retirees who are shifting to bonds for today's higher yields
Replies: 11
Views: 3197

Re: Reporter doing story on retirees who are shifting to bonds for today's higher yields

Stormbringer wrote: Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:29 am A shift to bonds is not necessarily market timing. Bernstein's WSJ article where he said "if you've the game, stop playing" is apropos here. If you have achieved a goal, locking in that achievement by switching to less risky assets is completely rational, and perhaps wise.
And in his new book Bernstein talks about picking up some TIPS because their future estimated return is much higher than it had been for several years.
by dkturner
Sun Dec 03, 2023 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A thought about tax efficient funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2096

Re: A thought about tax efficient funds

Back in the olden days Vanguard had a Gemini Fund. One class of shares received all of the dividend income and the other class received all of the capital appreciation. The fund had a maturity date and when it arrived the fund was terminated and the proceeds were distributed to the fund holders. I wonder whether there would be a demand for another like kind fund in todays market?
by dkturner
Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR and Discretionary expense
Replies: 44
Views: 6093

Re: SWR and Discretionary expense

dbr wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:15 am Discretionary vs mandatory is nonsense. For us that does not apply at all.
Even Standard & Poor uses a similar distinction in classifying companies.

We use the distinction by lumping gifts (charitable and to family members), vacations and things like new car purchases in a separate category to see how much it actually costs to maintain our routine standard of living. It’s amazing how much of our spending really is discretionary (14% - 49% during our 12 years of retirement) and how easy it would be to cut back spending if some type of emergency came along.