Search found 1346 matches

by dkturner
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The first million is the hardest?
Replies: 46
Views: 9019

Re: The first million is the hardest?

I remember a quote, from a member of the Bronfman family I believe: “Making $100 grow to $200 is hard work, making $100 million grow to $200 million is inevitable”
by dkturner
Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...
Replies: 22
Views: 3497

Re: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:45 am
Stay the course.
Even if you were heading for the rocks when you set “the” (as opposed to “a”) course?
by dkturner
Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6849

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

By reading this forum I have always felt like most users here think CAPE and other stocks valuations are useless. The only motto for many people seems to be: "buy&hold, never mind stocks valuations, just buy&hold!" It's just called "buy&hold"; You don't actually just hold your stocks and bonds! Wha...
by dkturner
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6849

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Mr. Bogle, were he to post under a pseudonym, would likely be hooted out of the forum that bears his name. He is not as doctrinaire as we suppose. He has a flexible mind, thinks aloud, floats ideas, and speaks his mind. I will say that over his lifetime that his underlying philosophy has been remar...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International equities versus USA domestic
Replies: 6
Views: 511

Re: International equities versus USA domestic

Since many US companies are international, how important is it to have non-US equities in your portfolio? There are several ways to view this, I am curious what others thoughts are on this issue? The fact that US companies sell their products and services in other countries doesn't get you the bene...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2626

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

If you don’t know how long you will live, and don’t know what life might throw at you, how can you be “confident” that you have sufficient resources to last for the rest of your life?
by dkturner
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3254

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

When a portfolio diversified across sources of return outperforms, it’s significant. When it underperforms, the shortfall tends to be pretty small. That’s an interesting point. Our portfolios have had a value tilt for most of the last 20 years. For the last 10 years (2008-2017) we outperformed our ...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3254

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

When a portfolio diversified across sources of return outperforms, it’s significant. When it underperforms, the shortfall tends to be pretty small. That’s an interesting point. Our portfolios have had a value tilt for most of the last 20 years. For the last 10 years (2008-2017) we outperformed our ...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 19 years maturity, and only a FOUR year duration?
Replies: 4
Views: 544

Re: 19 years maturity, and only a FOUR year duration?

How can a bond fund with such long average maturity (~19 years) have such a short (~4 yrs) duration? http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/MKNKX/quote.html If average coupon payments were super-high, I can see how this can MAYBE happen - but they aren't. Impending call provisions could be another r...
by dkturner
Mon May 28, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1909

Re: Factor Investing?

Factor investing seems to work best when there had been widely varying performances of different asset classes over the prior decade. As several posters have noted that had been the case in the period 1998-2006, but not recently. Unless you consider international stocks to be a “factor” there really...
by dkturner
Thu May 24, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's new posting rules
Replies: 16
Views: 1383

Re: Morningstar's new posting rules

All engines stop. In the way I read Mister Taylor's post is that you have to log in each time you try to reply to a post, even if you were already logged in. If that's the case then adios M* (note, my last post at M* was number 14,000 early last year, I no longer go to the forums). Gracias por leer...
by dkturner
Mon May 21, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend / no dividend index funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2864

Re: Dividend / no dividend index funds?

Here’s an idea. Are any funds available like this? No dividend capital appreciation fund. Contains market cap weighted stocks from US Total Stock Market, but only those that do not pay any dividend. Tries to liquidate stocks that transition to paying a dividend to institutional investors through ET...
by dkturner
Tue May 15, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1832

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

I will give a different opinion: Most market corrections are of the "ordinary" kind, just due to economic cycles and lower expected earnings for most companies. However, 2008 was very different, IMO. Our economic system was coming apart at the seems with major companies going bankrupt. Lehman Broth...
by dkturner
Fri May 04, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap
Replies: 62
Views: 8921

Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Warren Buffett, who probably knows more than all of us on individual stock investing, and who reads hundreds of annual reports a year, noted he would not be investing in Apple. It appears he's changed his mind. He bought another 75 million shares 1st quarter, likely making it his top holding. The n...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 58
Views: 6736

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

I did a comparison of the Vanguard Multifactor mutual fund (VFMFX) with the DFA Core fund (DFTCX) and found them to be close in composition. The Vanguard Fund has a larger allocation to small- cap stocks and is slightly more “Valuey”. It will be interesting to see how the two funds perform going for...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 140
Views: 26243

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

For most of us it depends on a combination of yield, security and convenience. Personally I prefer the Vanguard Advantage Account to online bank money market accounts. As to yield the current number for the VAA Account settlement fund is 1.41%, with no fees. The settlement fund is invested in the F...
by dkturner
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?
Replies: 38
Views: 3472

Re: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?

They can’t grow without limits, but tech stocks can encompass a much larger segment of stock market capitalization. A single huge tech company can continue to grow at double didget rates by spinning off subsiaries, which can in turn grow at double digit rates.
by dkturner
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 6590

Re: Factor Investing - A convincing article

One way to view the extra risk of value stocks is when they do poorly. Value stocks may get hit harder in a recession than safer growth stocks. The extra risk is the stock does poorly at the same time I lose my job: doing badly in bad times. Dave Why would value stocks do worse in a recession? I wo...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2623

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

Here's my own "mean reversion" observation (everything always depends on the choice of data interval!) In the time period studied by Dimson & al, 1900 to present, the average real return of the US stock market has been 6.5%, compared 4.3% for the rest of the world. I would argue that this is one he...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 140
Views: 26243

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

For most of us it depends on a combination of yield, security and convenience. Personally I prefer the Vanguard Advantage Account to online bank money market accounts. As to yield the current number for the VAA Account settlement fund is 1.41%, with no fees. The settlement fund is invested in the Fe...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1363

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

If you believe in the concept of the equity risk premium you should believe that the riskiest equities will provide the greatest return in the future. The future can, of course, be a looong time from now. Which foreign market sector do you think is the riskiest? Put your money to work in that sector.
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule
Replies: 60
Views: 6946

Re: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule

Th Fifth Circuit has the rep for being the most conservative federal circuit. That being said, the promotion of the prospect of fiduciariness by non-registered investment advisors eager to cash in on the rule smacked of abuse. It will be interesting to see if the DOL appeals this ruling or agrees t...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule
Replies: 60
Views: 6946

Re: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule

If they don't have to act in their client's best interest, then they should not be allowed call themselves financial advisors. They should be required to call themselves financial sales specialists, and they should be required to disclose which of their recommended products result in their receivin...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 9891

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:51 pm
grok87 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:35 am
dkturner wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:44 pm
Meine Schwiegermutter die in Deutschland lebt.
Echt? Kein US?
Well, also echt kein "BH living in the US" as stated in the OP :)
Sie sind richtig, sie lebt night in den U.S.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: your cash is trash at brokers J.Zweig - WSJ
Replies: 23
Views: 4782

Re: your cash is trash at brokers J.Zweig - WSJ

Why are people holding significant fractions of their portfolio in sweep accounts or in "higher yielding" alternatives at all? Presumably the reason is that people are not paying attention and just don't know. One place I will agree with Rick Ferri is that sweep accounts AND the recommended alterna...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the investment-grade vs. junk bonds divide arbitrary?
Replies: 16
Views: 1868

Re: Is the investment-grade vs. junk bonds divide arbitrary?

The OPs points are well taken - at least by the fixed income managers at the Vanguard Group. Their short, intermediate and long-term actively managed investment grade bond funds have higher allocations to A and higher rated bonds than the Vanguard corporate bond index funds.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 9891

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

Meine Schwiegermutter die in Deutschland lebt.
by dkturner
Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) does it matter how frequently you put in monies?
Replies: 27
Views: 2273

Re: When doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) does it matter how frequently you put in monies?

(Full disclosure: This is my first post ever, so please don't flame me for being a newb :( ) For instance, does it make a difference if you invest $100 daily versus investing $1500 bi-weekly versus investing $3000 monthly? They'd all compound on the same schedule, right? If you’re fortunate enough ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19688

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

... my definition of cash is same-day access . if you can't use it immediately to buy something then it has to be an investment. under this definition, i hold very little "cash". my checkings account averages $500 a month. That's fine. But that has absolutely nothing to do with Rick's original poin...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9966

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

My point in bringing up the last 10 years, is that I am not sure the peformance premium that they once had is really continuing. Over 10 years, it lagged the index and value benchmark. But, change the beginning point to a year later, March 2009, its absolute bottom, it has outperformed during from ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19688

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Differentiating cash from bonds is really splitting hairs. I like 1 year t-bills right now. Over 2% yield and as safe and liquid as you can get. I use these instead of money market funds or short-term bond funds. I know what you mean but the statement can lead to confusion. We might avoid some of t...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19688

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

A little bit too much cash in checking because I don't want to pay fees, and they keep switching up the requirements, and why am I still at this awful mega-bank anyway. Years ago I read an article where Vanguard was sending survey's inquiring and polling responses if they created a bank. Could you ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9966

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard changes the benchmark for the STAR fund when the composition of the STAR fund changes. That being said, I have no idea how one would benchmark STAR against any other existing benchmark; coming up with a standard against which to measure an all-in-one fund like STAR is problematic. I think ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9966

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard changes the benchmark for the STAR fund when the composition of the STAR fund changes. That being said, I have no idea how one would benchmark STAR against any other existing benchmark; coming up with a standard against which to measure an all-in-one fund like STAR is problematic. I think ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9966

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard STAR Fund. It beat its benchmark for as long as it has been in existence (a few weeks shy of 33 years) by 29 basis points per year. STAR's benchmark is the "STAR Composite Index", which is described by Vangard as: 62.5% Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. A...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In-law advice?
Replies: 24
Views: 2826

Re: In-law advice?

If you give an inlaw advice and it turns out to be good advice she’ll forget about who counseled her - she will eventually think it was her idea. OTOH if your advice doesn’t work out to her satisfaction she’ll always remember you, and your poor advice.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9966

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard STAR Fund. It beat its benchmark for as long as it has been in existence (a few weeks shy of 33 years) by 29 basis points per year. STAR is a collection of Vanguard actively managed stock and bond funds.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19688

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

If I can place an order to transfer "assets" during business hours and that money is in my bank the next day those "assets" are cash. If it takes two business days it's not cash. (Ironically that may make my margin account cash and it certainly doesn't keep up with inflation. But then margin is nor...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19688

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

The yield curve it typically steep on the short end. Rather than holding cash as a fixed allocation to reduce volatility, I’d prefer to hold a short-term bond fund and pick up the extra yield. Help me out here. I'm looking at the Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund performance over the l...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4754

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

...A case can be made that the bond bull market, that began in 1982, ended in 2012... "In general, we have thought that this very long bull market in bonds must be somewhere near the end."--Sir John Templeton, 1993 Lets test this one out. Templeton was trying to predict the peak in interest rates i...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4754

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

Comparing the Vanguard short and intermediate-term investment grade bond funds, you are only getting 38 basis points of additional yield by holding the intermediate-term fund rather than the short-term fund. The intermediate-term fund has an average duration that is 3.1 years longer than the 2.4 yea...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund - Gamesmanship???
Replies: 27
Views: 2520

Re: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund - Gamesmanship???

That is surprising, but you are sorting by coupon rate to find the riskiest ones in the fund. If you sort by market value rather than yield, you will see that the top holdings are in fact investment grade US Treasury. The risky holdings are weighted less by orders of magnitude. Indeed. But if they'...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion
Replies: 18
Views: 3164

Re: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion

Investors are cutting their exposure to equities, and they have been for years. How is this possible? Every share sold is a share bought. Is it a buyback phenomenon? Is it that there are less equity investors but larger holdings per individual? How does this concept of "flows" really work? Take a l...
by dkturner
Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ever thought of withdrawing bond allocation first ??
Replies: 23
Views: 2127

Re: Ever thought of withdrawing bond allocation first ??

You have to be cognizant of what equity and bond markets do during the early part of your retirement. If you were to take all of your withdrawals from fixed income while equities are on a run (think 2009-2017) you might have a very low fixed income allocation as you began your ninth year of retireme...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 3503

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

Number 3 is preferable, but I wouldn’t argue with number 2.
by dkturner
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6928

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Vanguard is not an unbiased source now that they have put a fortune into attracting new customers. If the new customers pull their money outoff bond funds it's a problem for them. If Vanguard operates its funds at cost and doesn't charge 12b-1 fees, where are they getting the money to attract new c...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 168
Views: 19069

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

We have settled on a process that uses 3 separate inputs: (1) portfolio yield (2) RMD amount and (3) 4% “rule” adjusted for investment expenses. Our goal is to limit our withdrawals from our combined portfolios to the lowest of the 3 inputs. We are in our 7th year of retirement and we only exceeded ...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 5547

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

The Fama and French research wasn't published until 1992, and tools in the form of mutual funds for slicing and dicing weren't available before then. For example, the DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio fund had its inception in 1993; Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund, 1998; T. Rowe Price Small-Cap ...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 7540

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

I’ve been following the 20 basis points per year approach recommended by Larry Swedroe. Maturities can be extended as long as you are receiving 20 bp of additional yield for each year of increase in maturity. In the last few weeks this indicator has signaled that many intermediate term bond funds sh...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard site is crashed now?
Replies: 188
Views: 17247

Re: Vanguard site is crashed now?

samsoes wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:13 pm
Ladies and gentlemen who couldn't reach Vanguard:

Were we market timing?

Shame! :mrgreen:
Are those of us who rebalanced today “guilty” too? :moneybag