Search found 1359 matches

by dkturner
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ditch your index funds --- riiiiight
Replies: 8
Views: 1430

Re: Ditch your index funds --- riiiiight

"I think you should focus on companies with low debt levels. The companies that get hurt the most when the economy slows are high-debt companies," he said. "This is now a stock picker's market , so it's time to ditch your index funds." I can't count how many times I have heard this ridiculous state...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 90
Views: 3741

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Beware though the future prospects of a strategy that is now well documented in the literature. I think Larry Swedroe has written on it (Larry has become very pro for Momentum, which is an investing strategy which really scares me - thinking January 2009 in particular). I’m not sure I am following ...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 90
Views: 3741

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Beware though the future prospects of a strategy that is now well documented in the literature. I think Larry Swedroe has written on it (Larry has become very pro for Momentum, which is an investing strategy which really scares me - thinking January 2009 in particular). I’m not sure I am following ...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 5839

Re: vanguard-founder-bogle-says-buy-bonds

I'll throw one of Mr. Bogle's better advice that fits any scenario... (paraphrasing) "When everyone is doing something the best thing is to stand there and do nothing". I think this is better advice then alter any long term portfolio due to some macroeconomic event that may or may not make a differ...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 5839

Re: Our mentor advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market

Hmmm... sell stocks and buy bonds because a drop in stocks is coming ... sounds a heckuva lot like market timing to me. Not that that is always a bad idea, but it is heresy to most "Bogleheads." Mr. Bogle NEVER recommends market timing. However,he isn’t averse to valuation driven capital redeployme...
by dkturner
Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A lot of us expected a US stock "pull back" is this it?
Replies: 58
Views: 7832

Re: A lot of us expected a US stock "pull back" is this it?

This is A pullback, but not necessarily THE pullback you are expecting, although it may be the beginning of The Big One. Stay tuned, we’ll all find out together.
by dkturner
Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 9415

Re: no dividends in index funds!

I wanted the quarterly dividends like I used to get with the blue chip stocks. It would just be additional income, often just at the right times. It was great to get a quarterly $800.00 dividend check. With the Index Funds I am lucky to get $300.00 quarterly for dividends.... Your index fund manage...
by dkturner
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does your gut tell you; RMD now or in December?
Replies: 38
Views: 2254

Re: What does your gut tell you; RMD now or in December?

Don't take your RMD late in the year--if you die then your beneficiary has to scramble to take the RMD in a very small window. As you age simplicity and reducing complexity are more important than maximizing returns in my view. True but toward the end of the year makes it easier to use the RMD to m...
by dkturner
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1198

Re: What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?

The importance of investing in low cost funds, whether active or index, and using very low turnover funds (primarily index funds) in taxable accounts.
by dkturner
Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3893

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

duplicate
by dkturner
Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 2077

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 2077

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?
Replies: 10
Views: 2270

Re: Would David Swensen's advice be different if he wrote his book in 2017?

Swensen’s model portfolio allocates only 30% of principal to fixed income, which is a pretty low allocation for the average investor. With a low fixed income allocation the quality of the fixed income becomes very important. That certainly points one in the direction of U.S. Treasury securities, so ...
by dkturner
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The first million is the hardest?
Replies: 46
Views: 9327

Re: The first million is the hardest?

I remember a quote, from a member of the Bronfman family I believe: “Making $100 grow to $200 is hard work, making $100 million grow to $200 million is inevitable”
by dkturner
Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...
Replies: 22
Views: 3596

Re: Another reason to be wary of international stocks...

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:45 am
Stay the course.
Even if you were heading for the rocks when you set “the” (as opposed to “a”) course?
by dkturner
Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 7022

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

By reading this forum I have always felt like most users here think CAPE and other stocks valuations are useless. The only motto for many people seems to be: "buy&hold, never mind stocks valuations, just buy&hold!" It's just called "buy&hold"; You don't actually just hold your stocks and bonds! Wha...
by dkturner
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 7022

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Mr. Bogle, were he to post under a pseudonym, would likely be hooted out of the forum that bears his name. He is not as doctrinaire as we suppose. He has a flexible mind, thinks aloud, floats ideas, and speaks his mind. I will say that over his lifetime that his underlying philosophy has been remar...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International equities versus USA domestic
Replies: 6
Views: 548

Re: International equities versus USA domestic

Since many US companies are international, how important is it to have non-US equities in your portfolio? There are several ways to view this, I am curious what others thoughts are on this issue? The fact that US companies sell their products and services in other countries doesn't get you the bene...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2724

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

If you don’t know how long you will live, and don’t know what life might throw at you, how can you be “confident” that you have sufficient resources to last for the rest of your life?
by dkturner
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3320

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

When a portfolio diversified across sources of return outperforms, it’s significant. When it underperforms, the shortfall tends to be pretty small. That’s an interesting point. Our portfolios have had a value tilt for most of the last 20 years. For the last 10 years (2008-2017) we outperformed our ...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3320

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

When a portfolio diversified across sources of return outperforms, it’s significant. When it underperforms, the shortfall tends to be pretty small. That’s an interesting point. Our portfolios have had a value tilt for most of the last 20 years. For the last 10 years (2008-2017) we outperformed our ...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 19 years maturity, and only a FOUR year duration?
Replies: 4
Views: 579

Re: 19 years maturity, and only a FOUR year duration?

How can a bond fund with such long average maturity (~19 years) have such a short (~4 yrs) duration? http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/MKNKX/quote.html If average coupon payments were super-high, I can see how this can MAYBE happen - but they aren't. Impending call provisions could be another r...
by dkturner
Mon May 28, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing?
Replies: 20
Views: 2003

Re: Factor Investing?

Factor investing seems to work best when there had been widely varying performances of different asset classes over the prior decade. As several posters have noted that had been the case in the period 1998-2006, but not recently. Unless you consider international stocks to be a “factor” there really...
by dkturner
Thu May 24, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's new posting rules
Replies: 16
Views: 1450

Re: Morningstar's new posting rules

All engines stop. In the way I read Mister Taylor's post is that you have to log in each time you try to reply to a post, even if you were already logged in. If that's the case then adios M* (note, my last post at M* was number 14,000 early last year, I no longer go to the forums). Gracias por leer...
by dkturner
Mon May 21, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend / no dividend index funds?
Replies: 30
Views: 3177

Re: Dividend / no dividend index funds?

Here’s an idea. Are any funds available like this? No dividend capital appreciation fund. Contains market cap weighted stocks from US Total Stock Market, but only those that do not pay any dividend. Tries to liquidate stocks that transition to paying a dividend to institutional investors through ET...
by dkturner
Tue May 15, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1926

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

I will give a different opinion: Most market corrections are of the "ordinary" kind, just due to economic cycles and lower expected earnings for most companies. However, 2008 was very different, IMO. Our economic system was coming apart at the seems with major companies going bankrupt. Lehman Broth...
by dkturner
Fri May 04, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap
Replies: 62
Views: 9473

Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

Warren Buffett, who probably knows more than all of us on individual stock investing, and who reads hundreds of annual reports a year, noted he would not be investing in Apple. It appears he's changed his mind. He bought another 75 million shares 1st quarter, likely making it his top holding. The n...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9433

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

I did a comparison of the Vanguard Multifactor mutual fund (VFMFX) with the DFA Core fund (DFTCX) and found them to be close in composition. The Vanguard Fund has a larger allocation to small- cap stocks and is slightly more “Valuey”. It will be interesting to see how the two funds perform going for...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 140
Views: 28282

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

For most of us it depends on a combination of yield, security and convenience. Personally I prefer the Vanguard Advantage Account to online bank money market accounts. As to yield the current number for the VAA Account settlement fund is 1.41%, with no fees. The settlement fund is invested in the F...
by dkturner
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?
Replies: 38
Views: 3684

Re: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?

They can’t grow without limits, but tech stocks can encompass a much larger segment of stock market capitalization. A single huge tech company can continue to grow at double didget rates by spinning off subsiaries, which can in turn grow at double digit rates.
by dkturner
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 7186

Re: Factor Investing - A convincing article

One way to view the extra risk of value stocks is when they do poorly. Value stocks may get hit harder in a recession than safer growth stocks. The extra risk is the stock does poorly at the same time I lose my job: doing badly in bad times. Dave Why would value stocks do worse in a recession? I wo...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2720

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

Here's my own "mean reversion" observation (everything always depends on the choice of data interval!) In the time period studied by Dimson & al, 1900 to present, the average real return of the US stock market has been 6.5%, compared 4.3% for the rest of the world. I would argue that this is one he...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 140
Views: 28282

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

For most of us it depends on a combination of yield, security and convenience. Personally I prefer the Vanguard Advantage Account to online bank money market accounts. As to yield the current number for the VAA Account settlement fund is 1.41%, with no fees. The settlement fund is invested in the Fe...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1422

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

If you believe in the concept of the equity risk premium you should believe that the riskiest equities will provide the greatest return in the future. The future can, of course, be a looong time from now. Which foreign market sector do you think is the riskiest? Put your money to work in that sector.
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule
Replies: 60
Views: 7270

Re: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule

Th Fifth Circuit has the rep for being the most conservative federal circuit. That being said, the promotion of the prospect of fiduciariness by non-registered investment advisors eager to cash in on the rule smacked of abuse. It will be interesting to see if the DOL appeals this ruling or agrees t...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule
Replies: 60
Views: 7270

Re: Federal court tosses out fiduciary rule

If they don't have to act in their client's best interest, then they should not be allowed call themselves financial advisors. They should be required to call themselves financial sales specialists, and they should be required to disclose which of their recommended products result in their receivin...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 10181

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:51 pm
grok87 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:35 am
dkturner wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:44 pm
Meine Schwiegermutter die in Deutschland lebt.
Echt? Kein US?
Well, also echt kein "BH living in the US" as stated in the OP :)
Sie sind richtig, sie lebt night in den U.S.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: your cash is trash at brokers J.Zweig - WSJ
Replies: 23
Views: 4928

Re: your cash is trash at brokers J.Zweig - WSJ

Why are people holding significant fractions of their portfolio in sweep accounts or in "higher yielding" alternatives at all? Presumably the reason is that people are not paying attention and just don't know. One place I will agree with Rick Ferri is that sweep accounts AND the recommended alterna...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the investment-grade vs. junk bonds divide arbitrary?
Replies: 16
Views: 1949

Re: Is the investment-grade vs. junk bonds divide arbitrary?

The OPs points are well taken - at least by the fixed income managers at the Vanguard Group. Their short, intermediate and long-term actively managed investment grade bond funds have higher allocations to A and higher rated bonds than the Vanguard corporate bond index funds.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 10181

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

Meine Schwiegermutter die in Deutschland lebt.
by dkturner
Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) does it matter how frequently you put in monies?
Replies: 27
Views: 2437

Re: When doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) does it matter how frequently you put in monies?

(Full disclosure: This is my first post ever, so please don't flame me for being a newb :( ) For instance, does it make a difference if you invest $100 daily versus investing $1500 bi-weekly versus investing $3000 monthly? They'd all compound on the same schedule, right? If you’re fortunate enough ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 20218

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

... my definition of cash is same-day access . if you can't use it immediately to buy something then it has to be an investment. under this definition, i hold very little "cash". my checkings account averages $500 a month. That's fine. But that has absolutely nothing to do with Rick's original poin...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 10186

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

My point in bringing up the last 10 years, is that I am not sure the peformance premium that they once had is really continuing. Over 10 years, it lagged the index and value benchmark. But, change the beginning point to a year later, March 2009, its absolute bottom, it has outperformed during from ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 20218

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Differentiating cash from bonds is really splitting hairs. I like 1 year t-bills right now. Over 2% yield and as safe and liquid as you can get. I use these instead of money market funds or short-term bond funds. I know what you mean but the statement can lead to confusion. We might avoid some of t...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 20218

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

A little bit too much cash in checking because I don't want to pay fees, and they keep switching up the requirements, and why am I still at this awful mega-bank anyway. Years ago I read an article where Vanguard was sending survey's inquiring and polling responses if they created a bank. Could you ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 10186

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard changes the benchmark for the STAR fund when the composition of the STAR fund changes. That being said, I have no idea how one would benchmark STAR against any other existing benchmark; coming up with a standard against which to measure an all-in-one fund like STAR is problematic. I think ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 10186

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard changes the benchmark for the STAR fund when the composition of the STAR fund changes. That being said, I have no idea how one would benchmark STAR against any other existing benchmark; coming up with a standard against which to measure an all-in-one fund like STAR is problematic. I think ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 10186

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard STAR Fund. It beat its benchmark for as long as it has been in existence (a few weeks shy of 33 years) by 29 basis points per year. STAR's benchmark is the "STAR Composite Index", which is described by Vangard as: 62.5% Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index, 25% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. A...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In-law advice?
Replies: 24
Views: 2889

Re: In-law advice?

If you give an inlaw advice and it turns out to be good advice she’ll forget about who counseled her - she will eventually think it was her idea. OTOH if your advice doesn’t work out to her satisfaction she’ll always remember you, and your poor advice.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years
Replies: 93
Views: 10186

Re: Looking for an example of a fund which has beat its index for 30 years

Vanguard STAR Fund. It beat its benchmark for as long as it has been in existence (a few weeks shy of 33 years) by 29 basis points per year. STAR is a collection of Vanguard actively managed stock and bond funds.