Search found 1569 matches

by dkturner
Wed May 27, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4563

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term. Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my ...
by dkturner
Tue May 26, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4563

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

It appears that you could have had much higher returns with any of those others instead of VFIDX, but you chose the one with lowest returns. This is not a good market timing success story, you got to bet big and win big when you time the market, otherwise it isn't worth it since you simply increase...
by dkturner
Mon May 25, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4563

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Deleted duplicate post.
by dkturner
Mon May 25, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4563

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my Treasuries (VFIUX) and bought investment grade corporates (VFIDX) with the proceeds. Over the ensuing 8 weeks VFIUX returned 54 basis points, while VFIDX returned 613 basis points. I learned that trick in 2008 - and it worked again in 2020. I wonder ho...
by dkturner
Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4563

Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I see there is a thread here inquiring whether anyone has screwed up trying to time the market. I would like to ask the opposite question, but I prefer the term “valuation driven capital redeployment”. “Market timing” is such a negative sounding term. Between March 25 and March 27 I sold all of my T...
by dkturner
Sun May 24, 2020 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4446

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Stock market is based on optimism. Bond market is based on rationalism. If you want to know which companies survive, go look at their bonds. Not the bond ratings - ratings are like opinions, everyone has one but their track record shows even they don't call the outcomes precisely. That’s very good ...
by dkturner
Tue May 12, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15450

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Interesting how he even admits that 40 years still has close to 90% success rate. For most retirees, that’s pretty good. I personally am comfortable with anything above 70 to 80% on firecalc. In the video he references early retirement now analysis. With a 75/25 Portfolio, there really is excellent...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard checkwriting rules
Replies: 1
Views: 304

Vanguard checkwriting rules

When vanguard terminated its Advantage accounts we had to reestablish checkwriting for the settlement fund in our joint brokerage account. In the initial book of checks each check has the caption “Not valid for less than $250” We received a new book of checks today and the new checks don’t contain t...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"
Replies: 37
Views: 6033

Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

No need to get all worked up over Cramer’s advice. You could have had the best of both worlds by owning the Vanguard Growth Index Fund (-5.0% YTD) as opposed to the Total Stock Market Index Fund (-14.3% YTD).
by dkturner
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 78
Views: 6808

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Mr. Bogle was correct when he said one doesn’t need international equity exposure, but if one wants it, limit it to 20%. For the last 50 years U.S. equities produced annualized total returns of 10.5% while international equities only returned 9.3%. Score one for The Man! If you go with an allocatio...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 78
Views: 6808

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Mr. Bogle was correct when he said one doesn’t need international equity exposure, but if one wants it, limit it to 20%. For the last 50 years U.S. equities produced annualized total returns of 10.5% while international equities only returned 9.3%. Score one for The Man! If you go with an allocation...
by dkturner
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Legislation to Suspend RMD and taxing SS
Replies: 6
Views: 933

Re: Legislation to Suspend RMD and taxing SS

afan wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:44 am
Forum rules prohibit speculation on pending legislation before it has been signed into law. For those sorts of questions you need to look to other sites.
The legislation in question was signed by the President on March 27.
by dkturner
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?
Replies: 57
Views: 4029

Re: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?

Inflation data obtained from Cambridge Associates:

1915 - 2.0%
1916 - 12.6%
1917 - 18.1%
1918 - 20.4%
1919 - 14.5%
1920 - 2.6%
by dkturner
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?
Replies: 68
Views: 8447

Re: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?

I did just the opposite last week. I sold my Treasuries, at a substantial profit, and purchased high grade corporate bonds, which now have much higher yields.
by dkturner
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: all value portfolio to gain better returns per Paul Merriman?
Replies: 9
Views: 436

Re: all value portfolio to gain better returns per Paul Merriman?

There is an idea that beaten up companies in unfashionable areas can be systematically undervalued. People don’t expect much from them, so their shares lose less value on bad news, but increase more when there is an upside surprise. Investing in these companies is called “value investing.” It was m...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money market funds are virtuarlly FDIC insured.
Replies: 18
Views: 1862

Re: Money market funds are virtuarlly FDIC insured.

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:12 am
Fed Moves to Keep Credit Flowing and Money Markets Calm Amid Coronavirus Turmoil.
I never worry about VMMXX braking the buck. The Fed did something similar back in '08. :greedy

How did you draw the conclusion that money market funds are “virtually” FDIC insured from this, dated, NYT article?
by dkturner
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any evidence that returns are greater after sudden drop?
Replies: 101
Views: 6097

Re: Any evidence that returns are greater after sudden drop?

Using the S&P 500, since 1929 there have been 4 short (less than one year duration) stock market declines of greater than 20%. The average length of these declines was 5.25 months and the average decline was 26%. On average, one year following the bottom of the declines, the index increased 29.5%, w...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX)
Replies: 20
Views: 1190

Re: How safe is Vanguard Federal MM fund (VMFXX) during these times?

I'm holding a bunch of money right now in Vanguard's brokerage sweep fund, VMFXX. The composition of this fund is: 18.7% Repo Agreements 49% U.S. Govt Obligations 32.3% Treasury Bills How safe is this fund? There's been some issues in the repo market lately which are questionable. Also, what the he...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taking Social Security in a down market
Replies: 13
Views: 1373

Re: Taking Social Security in a down market

Have you considered taking $40,000 per year solely from the fixed income portion of your portfolio? At current interest rates your fixed income (which should be up in value this year) is unlikely to experience substantial returns. That way you can hold on to all of your, seriously devalued, equitie...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taking Social Security in a down market
Replies: 13
Views: 1373

Re: Taking Social Security in a down market

Have you considered taking $40,000 per year solely from the fixed income portion of your portfolio? At current interest rates your fixed income (which should be up in value this year) is unlikely to experience substantial returns. Over the next two years. That way you can hold on to all of your, ser...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX's $1.92 drop Sep-Nov 2008 (Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares)
Replies: 5
Views: 281

Re: VIPSX's $1.92 drop Sep-Nov 2008 (Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares)

TIPS returns have been meandering ever since they were first introduced in the U.S. The common wisdom around here seems to be that TIPS are designed to protect investors from unanticipated inflation, and they probably will. But we haven’t seen inflation of any consequence since the Treasury began is...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I hate ETFs
Replies: 82
Views: 5798

Re: Why I hate ETFs

The title of your post claims that you will explain why you hate ETFs, but I don't understand why you do hate ETFs from this post. From what I understand, you dislike that you spent 1.5 hours out of the market when you switched money from ETFs to mutual funds. But if you had sold the ETFs to buy ot...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tis The Season To Be Tax-Loss Harvesting
Replies: 22
Views: 2093

Re: Tis The Season To Be Tax-Loss Harvesting

Darn, I only have large long term capital gains in my funds. I have had them for decades or at least many years. Similar situation as yours - however, we have reinvested dividends and made a substantial addition to our international fund in December of 2019. Are you sure you don’t have any short-te...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Vanguard been hacked? Website is down!
Replies: 13
Views: 2156

Re: Has Vanguard been hacked? Website is down!

mortfree wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:21 am
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Full moon and Friday the 13th is approaching.
And, we have to face the threat with no toilet paper or hand sanitizer! 😁
by dkturner
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous
Replies: 63
Views: 6861

Re: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous

Interesting article on Bloomberg.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-03/hottest-bond-market-in-history-is-starting-to-make-some-nervous?srnd=premium Thesis is that if "everyone" piles into bonds and bond funds, and then we get some good news (e.g., coronavirus not as bad as feared, ...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: American public has been going ‘wild’ with enthusiasm for index funds
Replies: 9
Views: 3305

Re: "America going wild for conglomerates in the last few years, but they call them Index Funds" - Warren Buffett 2/24/2

He's saying Berkshire Hathaway isn't a 1960s-fad-type-conglomerate, it's just a curated group of good businesses chosen for business reasons, not for accounting shenanigans... and it doesn't make sense for people to love index funds but hate Berkshire Hathaway because it's a "conglomerate." In part...
by dkturner
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway 2019 Shareholder Letter
Replies: 28
Views: 2895

Re: Berkshire Hathaway 2019 Shareholder Letter

I was curious about the recent performance of Berkshire vs. the S&P 500. Over the last two market cycles (2000-2019) Berkshire posted annualized returns of 9.4% per year, with a standard deviation of 15.9, vs 6.1% and 17.6 for the S&P 500. Not bad performance, considering that Mr. Buffett is always ...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?
Replies: 205
Views: 40185

Re: Indexing beats Wellington and Wellesley right?

Would it be possible for one on the strong index fund advocates who post here regularly to show us which index or exchange traded funds (with similar asset allocations) we should have used to equal, or (better yet) outperform the Wellesley and Wellington funds - without increasing risk? When I look ...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bond Yields Accurately Forecasting Future Inflation?
Replies: 43
Views: 2841

Re: Are Bond Yields Accurately Forecasting Future Inflation?

On a happier note, we could say that 10-year bonds almost always beat inflation No, we can’t. The real (inflation adjusted) return on 10 year Treasuries has exhibited very long periods when its return was seriously negative. For the 41 year period of 1941-1981 the real return of 10 year Treasuries ...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any sensible alternatives to the globally weighted equity portfolio? [UK investor]
Replies: 23
Views: 1613

Re: Are there any sensible alternatives to the globally weighted equity portfolio?

FWIW we have 50 years of data on domestic and international equity performance. U.S. equities returned an annualized 10.6% with a 16.9 standard deviation, while international equities returned an annualized 9.3% with a 21.3 standard deviation. Will the next 50 years reverse the numbers? Stay tuned....
by dkturner
Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any sensible alternatives to the globally weighted equity portfolio? [UK investor]
Replies: 23
Views: 1613

Re: Are there any sensible alternatives to the globally weighted equity portfolio?

Are there any sensible alternatives to the globally weighted equity portfolio? How about the Bogle portfolio? Limit your investments to U.S. listed bonds and stocks or, if you must venture overseas, do so with no more than 20% of your portfolio. FWIW we have 50 years of data on domestic and interna...
by dkturner
Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Swensen use both nominal and real treasuries?
Replies: 2
Views: 437

Re: Why does Swensen use both nominal and real treasuries?

Nominal Treasuries protect your portfolio from deflation, while TIPS protect your portfolio from inflation. He is hedging his bets, since he’s a long term investor who doesn’t recommend tinkering with one’s portfolio.
by dkturner
Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking asset allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 2128

Re: Rethinking asset allocation

I am also a big fan of Wellesley, but have been selling it and buying intermediate bonds in my IRA to keep my 50/50 allocation. I would rather do that than add bond funds to my taxable account. It seems that the "love" of a fund should not dictate a lack of re-balancing to your preferred Asset Allo...
by dkturner
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking asset allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 2128

Re: Rethinking asset allocation

Financologist wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:49 pm
Are you Already making Roth IRA contributions at the max level each year?
We are in our mid 70s and have been retired since 2011.
by dkturner
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's One Year of Duration Worth?
Replies: 7
Views: 915

Re: What's One Year of Duration Worth?

Larry Swedroe's bond book suggests you should be getting 20 basis points per year over short term bonds (1-2 years). Otherwise it isn't worth the additional risk. I will mildly disagree. The book is over 10 years old. That advice was based on that market structure. The market structure has changed....
by dkturner
Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: employer switching 401k, can I move money to my IRA?
Replies: 6
Views: 427

Re: employer switching 401k, can I move money to my IRA?

It depends on the provisions of the plan your employer has adopted. Most plans don’t allow in service rollovers of account balances, at least not prior to age 59 1/2 (don’t ask). The Summary Plan Description you were furnished for your existing plan, and the SPD you will be furnished when the new pl...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking asset allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 2128

Rethinking asset allocation

We had been maintaining an asset allocation target of 50/50 but, over the ensuing years it has drifted closer to 60% equities and 40% fixed income, despite reallocating most income distributions to fixed income. The majority of our assets are in taxable accounts, where all of the equities are invest...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are forward rates used?
Replies: 2
Views: 327

Re: Why are forward rates used?

I believe the IRS requires that method of accretion for bonds held in taxable accounts.
by dkturner
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla Stock
Replies: 301
Views: 16098

Re: Tesla Stock

I wonder how much of this panic buying is related to an article I read over the weekend that TSLA stock is going into the S&P index later this year? All of those index fund managers will have to add the stock to their portfolios if they want to track their index - and they have to buy the stock from...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 252
Views: 16631

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Gold is trading on the spot market at about $1580 per ounce. It may trade at $1600 as soon as this afternoon - or not for many years. Nobody who makes a prediction in this thread has any idea when it will happen.
by dkturner
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use anything other than 1 fund if you have a long term horizon?
Replies: 19
Views: 1766

Re: Why use anything other than 1 fund if you have a long term horizon?

Check out VTSAX on Morningstar. For the last 15 years the investment performance of VTSAX was in the 13th percentile of the 536 large-cap blend fund which have been in existence for at least 15 years. That means that there were 64 large-cap blend funds which had better long-term performance than VTS...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active for International, Passive for U.S.?
Replies: 45
Views: 3232

Re: Active for International, Passive for U.S.?

I was looking at the 10 year annualized return of the total international. It’s in the 57th percentile. Slightly below average. Total U.S. is in the 14th percentile - well above average. It’s always like that. Clearly, capitalization weighted broad market indexing is “easier” in the U.S. than it is...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active for International, Passive for U.S.?
Replies: 45
Views: 3232

Re: Active for International, Passive for U.S.?

This issue comes up periodically, probably because the Vanguard Total International Stock Fund, despite’s it’s very low expense ratio, has not consistently performed in the top half of its category over extended time periods. Are you sure about that? Long term, Morningstar is showing VTIAX (blue) a...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active for International, Passive for U.S.?
Replies: 45
Views: 3232

Re: Active for International, Passive for U.S.?

This issue comes up periodically, probably because the Vanguard Total International Stock Fund, despite’s it’s very low expense ratio, has not consistently performed in the top half of its category over extended time periods. The Vanguard domestic total stock fund, on the other hand, is always a top...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity lets clients now trade fractional shares of stocks and ETFs
Replies: 174
Views: 16059

Re: Fidelity lets clients now trade fractional shares of stocks and ETFs

Gee, now I can buy 3/1000 of a share of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock For about $1,000. Now I can tell my friends that I own the Class A “shares”. 8-)
by dkturner
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14922

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

The tables in the paper show that, historically (do we have anything else for reference purposes?) a 60/40 portfolio is often superior to a heavily equity weighted portfolio and and a bond heavy portfolio can be pretty risky. Reads like common sense to me. The tables and figures appear to be missin...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14922

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

The tables in the paper show that, historically (do we have anything else for reference purposes?) a 60/40 portfolio is often superior to a heavily equity weighted portfolio and and a bond heavy portfolio can be pretty risky. Reads like common sense to me.
by dkturner
Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do new issue bonds trade above par?
Replies: 7
Views: 542

Re: Why do new issue bonds trade above par?

Do we know if these newly issued premium municipal bonds were initially sold by the issuers at premium prices or at par?
by dkturner
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market Index - Section 199A dividends this year
Replies: 169
Views: 21156

Re: Total Stock Market Index - Section 199A dividends this year

I think the problem is for funds with 95-100% qualified dividends. In the past, anything greater than 95% would get rounded to 100%. Now, (apparently) they have to report the non-qualified as Sec. 199A. So instead of paying the 15/20% QD rate they have to pay 80% of their marginal rate, which is wo...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund SEC yield vs YTM
Replies: 9
Views: 559

Re: Bond fund SEC yield vs YTM

If I wanted a rough estimate of the coupon/dividend payments I would expect from the portfolio, I would use the SEC Yield. If I wanted a rough estimate of the total return from the portfolio held to some theoretical maturity, I would use YTM. It's a rough estimate either way, and the values are gen...