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Dovahkiin

I have been thinking about SPY/TLT more recently because I'm not a big fan of the UPRO management fee (part of it is understandable given they need to roll their futures, but that's a smaller holding as they mostly hold return swaps so it is still high). Likewise, ES/TU is harder to do without very...

Dovahkiin

That's what I was told. The rep was very clear to not use the automated payment unless I wanted to deal with claim reimbursement every month. :( What a drag! Do you think if you pre-paid a month so the account was always positive then you could have the convenience of automatic payments and not dea...

Dovahkiin

Hi LadyGeek, Sorry to hear you had resigned. I wish I had ran across this thread earlier - I would have suggested maybe asking your physician to write a reasonable accommodation letter recommending work from home/etc due to your COVID-19 risk if you wanted to keep your job. Still, if they're being t...

Dovahkiin

I made some transactions with the Cash Management account and it's showing up in YNAB. I now narrowed it down to the full brokerage account (which is also identified as a budget account) isn't importing any transactions. I'm going with the $0 CMA account + full brokerage account with overdraft prote...

Dovahkiin

Have you asked YNAB support? They are very responsive. I have. They're very dismissive saying they don't support investment accounts and that tracking accounts don't automatically update. I pointed out to them that I assigned it as a budget account and it's still not importing transactions even tho...

Dovahkiin

Sadly none of the Fidelity brokerage accounts or the CMA account plays nicely with You Need A Budget (YNAB.) YNAB isn't importing transactions at all even if it's set as a budget account. If you want to use it with YNAB you'd need to automatically set up known transactions for your payroll, rent, et...

Dovahkiin

You are absolutely correct, my apologies. I had read all your posts in this thread (in particular your post on the tax inefficiency of attempting SPY/TLT via ES micros and a hard to manage ZB was very helpful because I had been wondering about the futures and the contract size issue without thinkin...

Dovahkiin

Why are you calculating with margin rates? You should not be paying such high margin if you simply refinance it: https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/about/press/white-papers/2016/box-spreads-options-strategies-for-borrowing-or-lending-cash.pdf This is your first post here... welcome... little do...

Dovahkiin

I have a twice-monthly transaction scheduled in my Fidelity brokerage, the day after every payday, to automate the conversion of SPAXX (the core holding which my paycheck automatically gets deposited into) to FDLXX (my preferred money market fund). Since I don't know in advance how much SPAXX I'll ...

Dovahkiin

I don't think you can buy more than your buying power if buying internally (i.e., not from an external account), which includes not only your core position but also other money market funds in the account (and only that if not a margin account). For example, if you already had some money in FTEXX, ...

Dovahkiin

I have a solo 401k. I'm not a lawyer or a tax expert so this isn't legal advice. You need to make a bonafide attempt at self employment to open a solo 401k. There's no income requirement though if you fail self employment so bad that you have $0 income from your bonafide attempt. You can be a consul...

Dovahkiin

So I'm a few days into using Fidelity as a one stop shop. One negative is I mistakenly typed $10 extra than I had cash available buying FTEXX and incurred a cash debit on a cash account. I'm trying to ach the extra $10 in immediately to cover the debt before the T+1 settlement of the money market fu...

Dovahkiin

Going back through this post from last month, you mention "lowest tax" is not supported by any brokerage. Fidelity has the following settings for cost basis; That's really awesome!!! Fidelity is an excellent choice with their fractional shares/dollar investment options and moves to the top of the l...

Dovahkiin

If you want to buy more than $10k legitimately you can use a revocable living trust to do so. Each trust can buy $10k, even if it uses your SSN.

Dovahkiin

Direxion shut down eight LETFs in March and changed the leverage on ten more from 3X to 2X. Mostly oil/commodity ETFs that had very low AUM of like less than $50 million. IMO a prudent move in the market especially with assets that low. They won't shut down UPRO with over $1B in AUM at a 0.92% fee ...

Dovahkiin

At Schwab, even if I had, say $100,000 of buying power, I can enter limit orders below the market prices for a variety of securities that add up to way more than $100,000. Wow! That's umm..., how to put it lightly, breaking Reg-T/FINRA rules. Under Reg-T any outstanding limit order needs to use buy...

Dovahkiin

I get that options have time value. I just don’t get why that time value outweighs undiversified market risk. With options you generally get a lot more shares per RSUs/outright shares as it's a lot cheaper for the company to write and authorize. I'll make up an example using MSFT - Microsoft. Gener...

Dovahkiin

The largest stock market drop was 100% (China and Russia). The largest in the USA from top to bottom was about 87%. This analysis ignores all matter of human behavior. And the largest bond market loss was 100% (Germany 1921-1923 - hyperinflation, then the Nazi's defaulted them in 1930). There's jus...

Dovahkiin

Biggest thing I heard is some life insurance companies stopped issuing 30 and 20 year term policies due to current interest rate/bond market uncertainties. As far as corona is concerned it doesn't seem to be moving the needle much for anyone healthy.

Dovahkiin

:sharebeer Great post Dovahkiin. I enjoyed reading it thoroughly. I was going to stop at 10m, but now, no way. I'm riding it all the way up until I get to "You might not emotionally connect, but damn, she's hot". With so many of us becoming millionaires from this thread, one thing is certain: The w...

Dovahkiin

Well, either it's in a tax advantaged account and it doesn't matter, you just swap the whole thing over. Or, you're in taxable and who knows how many LTCG you've paid along the way as you had to rebalance so maybe there isn't a lot of LTCG's to owe money on. Or you just suck it up and pay the taxes...

Dovahkiin

What is everyone's de-risking plan when you've reached the goals with your own personal adventure? I think you're getting ahead of yourself. That's like asking how're you going to pay the taxes on your lottery winnings before you win the lottery. I 100% disagree completely. I'd liken it more to jus...

Dovahkiin

What is everyone's de-risking plan when you've reached the goals with your own personal adventure? Are you going to close all your positions and pay capital gains tax in one year and changing your asset allocation? Are you going to de-lever by adding more cash/stocks/bonds over time? If so, what lev...

Dovahkiin

Are deferred annuities very attractive investments for 45 year olds? I think not. I have yet to see anybody on Bogleheads recommend them. One look at a graph of US treasury rates , particularly since WW 2 , would give me jitters regarding tying my money up for 20 years at around 3% compounded. Don'...

Dovahkiin

Use revocable living trusts to get around the $10k purchase limit. You can use your SSN on every trust. My lawyer even just handed me over the trust word template so I can create new trusts easily if needed. I'm not planning on doing EE bonds for quite a while though. For the 20 years of lockup may ...

Dovahkiin

I have a question. I supposed there is a GENERAL consensus (although some will disagree) that quarterly rebalancing is optimal. But what is the best way to handle the monthly contributions. Say I'm investing $1,000 monthly in this strategy. Is it best to buy $5,500 of UPRO and $4,500 of TMF (assumi...

Dovahkiin

SPY/TLT (or equivalent) on margin until portfolio margin is invented in 2007, then spy/TLT on 3x margin, then UPRO/TMF once those funds came online in 2009, in a 55% 45% unlevered weighting.

Dovahkiin

This over simplifies a bit as you skipped the whole part where they need self-employment income to fund the account -- it's not "just another brokerage account". Further if they are funding their work 401k to the max, then they can only profit share in 20% of the business's income (subject to a cap...

Dovahkiin

How do you get upro/tmf in your fidelity 401k account. Im only able to buy S&P index and other simple funds. It's a Solo-401k plan. It's just another brokerage account. https://www.fidelity.com/retirement-ira/small-business/self-employed-401k/overview Anyone can open one. Just get an EIN from the I...

Dovahkiin

I'm happy to say I can fully endorse Fidelity's dollar trading/fractional shares for UPRO/TMF. Just now I bought in with a market order $90k for my solo 401k for my UPRO/TMF portfolio. UPRO Bid/ask was a penny wide. I was charting on Thinkorswim and had the trade tape up. I got filled at the ask on ...

Dovahkiin

While I still have serious issues with the illiquidity of EE bonds, I must say that the 3.53% yield is probably quite attractive to a lot of folks right now. To be honest, I'm surprised that there is so little mention of them. 20 year Treasuries are only yielding 1.60% right now. Am I missing somet...

Dovahkiin

I did an fidelity employer 401k rollover to my fidelity solo 401k and the rep I spoke with said they couldn't do it in-kind. I've never heard of any 401k plans allowing in-kind, and I've always asked. They were able to directly deposit cash into my account the next day so I was only out of the marke...

Dovahkiin

Are people already doing this in a brokerage account? Help me understand the implications. I am in the highest tax bracket. The strategy generates approximately 1% in dividends per year (with TMF being qualified dividends). I'm doing it in taxable. Pull up my extensive posts on taxes. I've ran exte...

Dovahkiin

You went in with the full 2x on Margin at IB correct? Are you Reg-T or Portfolo Margin? Are you going in with the rest fully balanced out the gate, or are you going to wait for a specific TMF price to drop? No I'm not doing margin. Decided the 3x portfolio is risky enough. You're facing a 66% draw ...

Dovahkiin

Did you pull the trigger on the pullback? Curious to hear results, or if you had a simulation going beforehand what happened to it, was there a margin call triggered? Yes, earlier I said I got in on 3/19 TMF @ 30.61 and UPRO @ 23.26. $70k worth or so, up 30% now. I'm not sure if I'll be re-balancin...

Dovahkiin

I got done re-examining the tax hits after 16 years of UPRO/TMF vs SPY/TLT 3x using my algorithm over various amounts of contributions/etc. I'll save going over the math but if you're 100% long term gains, here is how much after-tax extra you'd have over upro/tmf under these following scenarios: $10...

Dovahkiin

Do you assign any utility to the "non-callability" of the leverage exposure in the 3x funds? I would think there is definite value there. Great point. What would be a good cost of non-callability. Of course with the algorithm managing leverage daily it'd be very unlikely that the portfolio would be...

Dovahkiin

Now that I have updated margin interest deductions it creates more selling on the algorithm. 0.43% for most tax lot methods and 0.23% for LIFO. This doesn't count wash sales yet either. SPY/TLT will also have a 1.20~% tax drag due to qualified dividends and ordinary income. Previously UPRO/TMF tax d...

Dovahkiin

I made a critical math mistake in estimating the margin loan interest rate on Quantconnect. I was using some variable called "Portfolio.TotalMarginUsed" which was only $1m when the algorithm had $3.2m equity and $9.6m holdings. :oops: Here's the updated balances for SPY/UPRO for various fixed margin...

Dovahkiin

What's the optimal way to spread the purchases of UPRO and TMF across tax-advantaged and taxable accounts? Assuming my long-term plan is a mix of UPRO/TMF, BRK.B and maybe ARKK I'm thinking: UPRO in Roth since greatest potential gains TMF in taxable accounts since likely lowest gains BRK.B, ARKK an...

Dovahkiin

I know that for me part of the issue is wondering whether all the conditions that led to a decision still hold true. There can be purely rational reasons to second guess a particular strategy. Of course, fair point. That's why I'm bailing on UPRO/TMF for SPY/TLT at 3x on margin when I can. I don't ...

Dovahkiin

How do you fit this portfolio in your asset allocation? Is it your complete portfolio, an replacement of equity portion, or your play money? I was 100% stocks before the COVID crash. Still remain 100% stocks after. I only discovered Hedgefundie's posts earlier this year. So right now I threw a $70k...

Dovahkiin

Ok, so you would be paying interest then. Why not just use e-mini/micro e-mini for S&P 500 and ZB for treasury bond futures instead? Please don't read this as a recomendation that anyone does this, but just wondering why pay interest buying ETFs on margin when one can just use futures instead? Beca...

Dovahkiin

Are you sure there is no margin interest? I'm talking about maintenance and initial margin IE buying power, NOT margin interest. At TD Ameritrade in a Reg-T account if you buy $100k of SPY + TLT then your buying power goes down by $100k. At IBKR, on the paper account, it goes down by $50k. So you c...

Dovahkiin

I just logged into trader workstation on IBKR on the paper account and for Reg-T Margin IBKR gives SPY/TLT 25% initial margin and 25% maintenance margin! Woohoo! 100 of SPY at 221.71 for 22,224 usd requires 5,490 margin. Doesn't quite go to 25% but close enough, probably a rounding error somewhere o...

Dovahkiin

Tax results are in for the 55% SPY 45% TLT levered to 3x (165% SPY/135% TLT): Leverage ratio band: [2.9x - 3x - 3.5x] $100k lump sum from 1/1/2003 to 1/30/2020: https://pastebin.com/raw/SHQCDG5z Lowest average drag - TaxEfficientLossHarvester: -0.06% Spy/TLT is incredibly tax efficient in terms of t...

Dovahkiin

QuantConnect Portfolio Margin results are in. I've decoupled rebalancing leverage from rebalancing SPY and TLT. As the portfolio gains more and more and thus leverage decreases, it will re-balance by keeping the current respective asset allocation between SPY and TLT, but borrow more on margin. The ...

Dovahkiin

Well, I expressed reservations about Direxion in the past (as opposed to ProFunds or ProShares), I am not terribly surprised by the fund closures, but I would never have expected them to change the definition of 3x funds to 2x funds on the fly. There is no long-term strategy possible when a company...

Dovahkiin

Anyone see this post and get a little worried about their TMF position? https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4333042-bond-market-crash-begins-on-april-8-and-9 I haven't until you linked it now. Thanks for the link and warning! If you're concerned the 17 APR 20 $30-strike put on TMF right now is tra...

Dovahkiin

I finally bought in yesterday with 70k cash I had sidelined before the market fell. Starting off 55% upro 45% TMF, cost basis is 23.26 for UPRO and 30.61 for TMF, already up 3.21%. I'll be doing quarterly re-balancing calendar aligned to Jan 2nd, most likely skipping April since I just bought in. I'...

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