Search found 95 matches

by indian86
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts
Replies: 37
Views: 2194

Re: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts

Bottom line is various studies have shown that if every year since 1950 you sold all your holdings on last day of April, exited the stock market, and re-entered to the same essential holdings or indexes on Nov 1 of the same year - and did that every year - your total return would massively have outp...
by indian86
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 20621

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

I would say that I started noticing really profiting off the hard work of others once my investment portfolio hit the 1 mill mark. Prior to 2020 and since 2013, we have had at least 5 years of 20% stock market returns and I was seeing the benefit of much poorer people working hard and taking their ...
by indian86
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"
Replies: 35
Views: 2601

Re: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"

I think the winner-loser argument in trading/investing a straw-man argument. You can both be winners. What if I buy JBLU at $9 in the am, with a goal of making $500. It hits 9.30 at noon and I sell to someone with a $500 profit. I won. Then the guy I sold it too sells it later at 9.60 for his profit...
by indian86
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 20621

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

I would say that I started noticing really profiting off the hard work of others once my investment portfolio hit the 1 mill mark. Prior to 2020 and since 2013, we have had at least 5 years of 20% stock market returns and I was seeing the benefit of much poorer people working hard and taking their p...
by indian86
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks really protect against inflation?
Replies: 20
Views: 1999

Re: Do stocks really protect against inflation?

Always the same answer in economics - supply and demand. If inflation rises and banks start giving you 5+% interest on your cash, why in the world would you put money in stocks in this environment. Hence, lack of buying would cause their price to reduce. Stock prices wouldn't drop because of anythin...
by indian86
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks really protect against inflation?
Replies: 20
Views: 1999

Re: Do stocks really protect against inflation?

Always the same answer in economics - supply and demand. If inflation rises and banks start giving you 5+% interest on your cash, why in the world would you put money in stocks in this environment. Hence, lack of buying would cause their price to reduce. Stock prices wouldn't drop because of anythin...
by indian86
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SSO (ETF) - double the fun!
Replies: 6
Views: 661

Re: SSO (ETF) - double the fun!

"A popular way to do that is the SPY ETF. Do you realize that you can get "twice the deal" by buying SSO - with the same yield?"

Actually the yield is about half SPY. But the difference is immaterial with the overall returns between the two vehicles.
by indian86
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SSO (ETF) - double the fun!
Replies: 6
Views: 661

SSO (ETF) - double the fun!

I am reading a lot of folks here very happy that the market is selling off so they can load up on stocks "cheap". A popular way to do that is the SPY ETF. Do you realize that you can get "twice the deal" by buying SSO - with the same yield? If one is that confident in our stock m...
by indian86
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...
Replies: 133
Views: 11507

Re: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...

I think you are trying to apply facts to what is only concepts and theory. The "stock market" is just a concept related to perception. It is just matching buy and sell demand. aapl can trade at 300 a share one day and 200 a share then next day, and it is just random based on who wants inan...
by indian86
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn
Replies: 56
Views: 6077

Re: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn

I think Cramer has interesting ideas to listen to. But that doesn't mean one can make money picking stocks. You have to pick them then know when to buy and then whn to sell. That is three decisions and you must be right on all of them to outperform indexes. I think he is decent at evaluating a compa...
by indian86
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7647

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

Cause it makes people feel better to say that.
by indian86
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I guess 100% stocks is right for me
Replies: 53
Views: 4260

Re: I guess 100% stocks is right for me

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:36 pm As others have pointed out, it's not just about percentage losses. Dollars are what really matter. Losing 50% of a $10k portfolio won't hurt nearly as much as losing 30% of a $3 million portfolio.
Yes that. down 800k in a 3.6 mill port. Not too worried...yet.
by indian86
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Web Site Failure - Warning...
Replies: 7
Views: 711

Re: Vanguard Web Site Failure - Warning...

I don't really understand Vangaurd trades. If I place a trade to sell some mutual fund shares at say 1pm during a trading day, do I get that price at that time or the closing price at the end of the day. I thought it was the latter. Which I don't like.
by indian86
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wouldn't Day Trading do well in this environment?
Replies: 47
Views: 3272

Re: Wouldn't Day Trading do well in this environment?

I wouldn't say day trading, but I would say hedging is great when we are at market highs. For instance, in January I bought VXX at 17 and while it went to the 13s soon after, it is now in the 60s, basically quadrupling in weeks. Without daytrading, you can always own something that allows your portf...
by indian86
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 164
Views: 19671

Re: The Black Swan is Here

Yeah I get the "flatten the curve thing" but really, why don't we worry about flattening the curve each year when we have 30-50k plus deaths from the common flu? I don't think you are getting the "flatten the curve thing". The seasonal flu doesn't bring the US healthcare system ...
by indian86
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dow down about 31.5% from highs
Replies: 22
Views: 2802

Re: Dow down about 31.5% from highs

I knew when being 100% stocks to assume I could lose 30-50% in a downturn. Being that we are already down a substantial amount and how quickly we priced in a recession. How much further down are we going to see?? I think 50-60% overall seems about right. You have to realize that the 31% has been ba...
by indian86
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 164
Views: 19671

Re: The Black Swan is Here

We've been talking about it forever on this forum but I think it's here. The stock market is crashing, public places are closed, stores ran out of stuff, people will soon lose their jobs, and no antidote for the plague yet. In time like this, this retired person is glad that I have 10 years of annu...
by indian86
Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How does FDIC Insurance work?
Replies: 4
Views: 335

How does FDIC Insurance work?

I know it insures up to 250k in an account. So if I have 2 million in investments, should I have it in 8 separate brokerage accounts? Cn you have multiple accounts with the same company to spread out risk, each insured up to 250k? So should I have 8 different accounts with Vanguard if all 2 mill was...
by indian86
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the Boglehead philosophy not to time the market, and yet the advice when there is a downturn is that...
Replies: 56
Views: 6126

Re: Why is the Boglehead philosophy not to time the market, and yet the advice when there is a downturn is that...

Do you enjoy buying when things are on sale or things are not on sale? Most people here (hopefully) have a set amount allocated from biweekly paycheck that gets consistently invested. And it feels great to pay less for the same shares paid 2 weeks ago than to pay more. And also, many people trust t...
by indian86
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to GET OUT?
Replies: 125
Views: 10908

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

I would build do the following: 1. Don't sell current holdings. 2. Continue "buying" the market through your 401k contributions 3. Assuming you have a job, don't put new extra income in the market but instead build cash until you are comfortable you can live on it for two years. 4. After t...
by indian86
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 187
Views: 31020

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

Currently you should have at least 2 years living expenses in cash/treasuries. Call it whatever you want. Assume you will lose your job and it will take two years for the economy to snap back and you to find a job. Most MM managers I read are protecting this economic earthquake to be anywhere from d...
by indian86
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safety and accessibility of Money Market Funds if Market is Closed or Liquidity Dries Up
Replies: 11
Views: 813

Re: Safety and accessibility of Money Market Funds if Market is Closed or Liquidity Dries Up

Sure it is very possible there will be issues. Every First world economy in Europe will likely be defaulting. Italy for sure, and likely Spain and Germany also. That will cause many banks to be insolvent since they hold a lot of debt notes from those contries that will not be paid. At the end of the...
by indian86
Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: <deleted>
Replies: 85
Views: 7952

Re: Its going to get really bad, so I am Hedging - reducing stock exposure

Buy and hold is fine, but the esteemed Warren Buffet, a perceived buy and hold investor, had 118B in cash when the market was topping. So yes, he is a smart investor now buying, but he isn't buy and hold under all circumstances cause he got that 118B from selling other stocks when the buy and hold t...
by indian86
Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anybody considering reducing bond purchases
Replies: 24
Views: 2269

Is anybody considering reducing bond purchases

in the coming year based on the anticipated rise in interest rates? I know nothing is definite but interest rates will rise and it must cause at least long term bonds to have a principal reduction. I know we are not market timers but is it smart to abandon common sense. Is anyone on board with this?
by indian86
Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting Job of 20yrs to start business
Replies: 31
Views: 5242

Re: Quitting Job of 20yrs to start business

I am in a similar position as you. Starting a new business is challenging for sure but not a big deal if you are prepared to go back into the corporate world if it doesn't work. Actually, it doesn't really sound like you are starting your own business. Sounds like your wife is and you will be the fi...
by indian86
Wed Dec 25, 2013 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Starting a new business - financial allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 632

Re: Starting a new business - financial allocation

Is it a unique business start up, or can you disclose the type of activity you are thinking about that requires that level of investment? I am having difficulty thinking of any individual owner start ups I've been involved in that had $50K/month expense right out of the gate.""" Draa...
by indian86
Tue Dec 24, 2013 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Starting a new business - financial allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 632

Re: Starting a new business - financial allocation

Taylor - thank you. Yes, I already have the HELOC in place. I have not used any of the balance. I took it out 2 years ago for this possible reason.
by indian86
Tue Dec 24, 2013 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Starting a new business - financial allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 632

Starting a new business - financial allocation

HI: I am planning on starting a new business in Feb 2014. I will be leaving my job that currently pays about 100k. I will need about 50k to get up and running and then have a monthly cost of about 50k from June forward to maintain the business. I anticipate being cash-flow positive month to month by...
by indian86
Thu Dec 12, 2013 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of your income are you saving?
Replies: 208
Views: 23926

Re: What percentage of your income are you saving?

Save about 10% and in late 40s. I probably don't fit what is called the "boglehead lifestyle." kids are 15 and 12 and I intend to live it up a bit with them. Not sure about crimping now so one can live it up when retired - can never take life or health for granted. And I could save alot mo...
by indian86
Sun Dec 08, 2013 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: buy/hold vs. buy/hold/rebalance
Replies: 64
Views: 7098

Re: buy/hold vs. buy/hold/rebalance

Before you adhere to some strict annual rebalancing plan, please understand that "risk" is a very complicated concept in the investment world. I do think people can over-manage the re-balancing concept and all it does is generate broker fees. If you have learned that your risk profile is 5...
by indian86
Sat Dec 07, 2013 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Admiral Shares
Replies: 15
Views: 2458

Vanguard Admiral Shares

Can someone tell me what is the basic difference between a fund and a fund with the same name with Admiral Shares? I see that the initial deposit for Admiral is more than a normal fund, and its performance seems to be better.
by indian86
Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'd like to challenge the logic behind a 'disaster fund'
Replies: 134
Views: 10393

Re: I'd like to challenge the logic behind a 'disaster fund'

I keep 100k in savings - 9% of my net worth. I think of it as a combination or emergency fund, or maybe sometime I want to buy a small boat, redo a bathroom, or buy a small cottage by a lake...on somewhat of a whim. I just like having cash on hand - flexibility and security. The other 1 mill is in r...
by indian86
Wed Jun 26, 2013 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I refinance or pay it all off?
Replies: 20
Views: 1886

Re: Should I refinance or pay it all off?

To each their own on this issue, but I am not a big fan of paying off a mortgage at these low interest rates if you have any acumen and confidence in investing. Especially if you have also built some equity. That being said, you have sufficient outside funds that paying off your mortgage would not c...
by indian86
Mon May 06, 2013 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1.5% Financial Advisor... or index fund?
Replies: 81
Views: 9198

Re: 1.5% Financial Advisor... or index fund?

DIY:

25% IYY
15% IYR
20% EFA
20% BND
10% TIP
10% AUG

Allocate to these percentages every JAn 1. Otherwise, forget about it. You will do better than an advisor.
by indian86
Mon May 06, 2013 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1.5% Financial Advisor... or index fund?
Replies: 81
Views: 9198

Re: 1.5% Financial Advisor... or index fund?

Hi all, This is my first time here. I'm aware that there are many resources here that I plan to read... But I'm dying to have some feedback. I recently inherited about $350,000 and have not done much with it as I have been settling my late mother's affairs. I'm now at the point of making some finan...
by indian86
Mon May 06, 2013 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to start with small amount?
Replies: 24
Views: 2534

Re: How to start with small amount?

I would recommend getting your emergency fund up to 6 months of expenses first. Without that, you'll be in trouble if you hit some unexpected expenses or loose your job. After that, I would pay extra towards your student loan (that gives you a guaranteed 6% return). Most here will recommend you foc...
by indian86
Fri Feb 22, 2013 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?
Replies: 27
Views: 7775

Re: should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?

OK, some good stuff here. Thanks all. What I appear to be looking at is a 86/14 current stock bond split (I am convinced to keep the house out of it.) with my investment portfolio. I would like to deploy new funds to move toward 70/30 asset allocation over the next few years. Keeping it simple would...
by indian86
Fri Feb 22, 2013 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?
Replies: 27
Views: 7775

Re: should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?

Anyone have any ETF's they would suggest to move new money into, given my scenario? There are so many dang choices.
by indian86
Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?
Replies: 27
Views: 7775

Re: should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?

thanks nydad. Plan to be in the home for about 5-10 year and then downsize to a home that will be paid for by the equity, therefore eliminating my mortgage.
by indian86
Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?
Replies: 27
Views: 7775

should I consider home equity part of asset allocation?

I have a net worth of about $1 million. However, 450k of that is locked in the value of my home. The other 600k is in cash (130k) in cash savings, mixture of foreighn and domestic stocks funds - mostly vangaurd (370k), bonds and TIPs (60k). I am 48 years old with no debt other than a 180k mortgage a...
by indian86
Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Who owns] TIPS
Replies: 37
Views: 4111

[Who owns] TIPS

How many of you own these as part of your port and do you think they are important for a portfolio. Thank you for you reply.
by indian86
Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Bonds in my portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 753

Re: Need Bonds in my portfolio

thanks dbr - I understand the risky 95% thing. But I failed to clarify that is just investment money. I tend to categorize that out. I also have over 500k in equity in my home and 100+k in cash (ING). So with that I don't feel that my "investment portion (400k)" is overly risky. In fact, l...
by indian86
Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Bonds in my portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 753

Re: Need Bonds in my portfolio

Thanks for the quick responses. I have about 400k in various accounts - 95% to 5 in favor of stocks (5% bonds is mostly TIPS). About 50% of my stock allocation is international and 50% domestic. Since I am 48 my plan was to simply start buying some bonds with new contributions to start heading towar...
by indian86
Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need Bonds in my portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 753

Need Bonds in my portfolio

I have Roth contributions sitting in accounts that I would like to purchase Bonds with. My intent is to seek yield in these accounts where they are tax sheltered. Neither BND or the Vangaurd total Bond Index have a great yield, and many stocks have better yields. I do understand that bonds would hav...
by indian86
Sat Feb 02, 2013 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how to start investing at market highs?
Replies: 40
Views: 5260

Re: how to start investing at market highs?

I came to the board last year at this time with the same question, but with 120k to invest. Very concerned about a market correction. But with the help of some astute board members I put it all in on one day in January. Turned out I made 14% putting it in equal parts EFA, IYY, IYR, BND, TLT - it is ...
by indian86
Thu Jan 17, 2013 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 9
Views: 1867

Re: Lazy Portfolios

Its really not that tough folks - for ages 20-55 IYY - 25% IYR - 25% EFA - 25% BND - 15% TLT - 5% IAU - 5% And forget about it. When adding new money, just buy the laggards to get the percentages up. Don't worry about rebalancing each year and wasting money on fees. Buy more to "balance out.&qu...
by indian86
Thu Jan 17, 2013 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Washington Post Article About People Raiding 401k Accounts
Replies: 102
Views: 22913

Re: Washington Post Article About People Raiding 401k Accoun

this is why I keep 100k in cash at ING at all times. Never know when unexpected things happen. Plus, makes me more charitable as well.
by indian86
Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL
Replies: 232
Views: 68210

Re: AAPL

bought some at 497 today. just about 4% of my port. 704 to 484 in two months for arguably the smartest company in the world on no material bad news is too quick, even for the fast changing tech world. Today was the key day because there were 3 early am downgrades and yet it blasted upward. Confirmat...
by indian86
Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: savings account [Looking for higher interest rates]
Replies: 25
Views: 5272

Re: savings account

I have been with ING for 5 years and currently have about the same amount. IT typically has been slightly above other major banks
by indian86
Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The 4-year mortgage payoff plan
Replies: 121
Views: 23736

Re: The 4-year mortgage payoff plan

I just refinanced a mortgage balance of 180k with a 30yr - 3.75 and have myself on a 7 year plan to pay it off. I'm just tired of having a mortgage. I could just pay if off out of savings but I do feel the stock market is undervalued and we are heading into some nice returns over the next 4-6 years,...