Search found 72 matches

by walkinwood
Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "current yields are the best estimate of future returns"
Replies: 6
Views: 758

Re: "current yields are the best estimate of future returns"

Thank you all.
I'll read the article and threads referenced.
by walkinwood
Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "current yields are the best estimate of future returns"
Replies: 6
Views: 758

"current yields are the best estimate of future returns"

Where does this concept "current yields are the best estimate of future returns" regarding bonds come from? And what does it refer to? Bonds held to maturity or bond funds? Long term, short term or intermediate? Corporate or treasury? I've been seeing this in a number of places, but can't ...
by walkinwood
Sat Nov 09, 2013 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken and Vanguard - Download Problem
Replies: 219
Views: 25810

Re: Quicken and Vanguard - Download Problem

Thank you for the suggestion to go look at all the accounts. I too had some old brokerage accounts at VG that were configured for Direct Connect. If, after cleaning up & checking your accounts, you still get stuck in the "error recovery", disconnect your accounts from VG and then conne...
by walkinwood
Wed Oct 30, 2013 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do sweep accounts require minimum balances at Vanguard?
Replies: 32
Views: 3624

Re: Do sweep accounts require minimum balances at Vanguard?

In the Vanguard Brokerage accounts, I have $0 in my sweep account. All dividends from my mutual funds are swept into my vanguard mutual fund account. In the vanguard mutual fund account (the one with only vanguard mutual funds), I needed to have a non-zero balance in my sweep (mmf) account in order ...
by walkinwood
Tue May 14, 2013 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick question about withdrawing retirement assets
Replies: 13
Views: 1589

Re: Quick question about withdrawing retirement assets

From a practical standpoint, there is one more step that you may want to consider. - In the accumulation phase, it makes sense to automatically reinvest distributions. In the withdrawal phase, it may be more tax-efficient to let them go into a MMF & be used towards your following year (or curren...
by walkinwood
Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ article on "The 4% Rule" Here is the link.
Replies: 66
Views: 16463

Re: WSJ article on "The 4% Rule" Here is the link.

Two of the authors assumptions seem to bolster his case - monthly rebalancing while studies use annual rebalancing - constant 3% inflation while studies use actual inflation - and sequence of inflation matters. If you had retired Jan. 1, 2000, with an initial 4% withdrawal rate and a portfolio of 55...
by walkinwood
Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living off the interest VS Gobbling your nest egg in retrmnt
Replies: 44
Views: 6370

Re: Living off the interest VS Gobbling your nest egg in ret

I think the conventional SWR (ie. SWR% of portfolio in the first year and inflation adjusted equivalents in following years) is a convenient tool for academics, but has little relevance to real life. The reality is that retirees (I am an early retiree, having retired at 48) have to be flexible in th...
by walkinwood
Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Small-Cap Fund/ETF
Replies: 21
Views: 2003

Thanks all for your responses. I have no way of knowing if it is an essential asset class. I have had a small cap fund in my portfolio for years & I believe it has provided good diversification. I thought this would be a good time to diversify into an international small cap fund because a rebal...
by walkinwood
Sun Aug 21, 2011 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Small-Cap Fund/ETF
Replies: 21
Views: 2003

International Small-Cap Fund/ETF

I am thinking of further diversifying my international equity holdings by adding an International small-cap fund/ETF. I tend to use Vg funds & VSS fits the bill. Are there other International small-cap funds or ETFs I should consider? If you recommend, please help me understand the reasons for y...
by walkinwood
Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Otar's "storm warning" approach
Replies: 18
Views: 3542

Are there any studies on the risk reduction of the 200 day avg strategy over long periods - say 30 years? It certainly looks compelling when viewing it on a graph.

What metrics of risk would you use? Lower volatility while losing only a small percentage of cumulative gain would be a good metric.
by walkinwood
Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple method of SWR without leaving a Big Pile at the End
Replies: 212
Views: 23615

I find it amazing how much effort is put into understand SWR when no one in their right mind, IMHO, would ever actually use such a method as anything other than a penciled in rough planning estimate. Which by the way, is what the original authors intended. (Thanks to nisi, we know that without a do...
by walkinwood
Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Otar's book - a good Christmas gift?
Replies: 28
Views: 4622

I think it is a terrible idea for a Christmas gift.

It is a great book that I found worth every hour that I spent reading it, and you should gift it to your father - but for Christmas? Give him something fun instead.
by walkinwood
Tue Nov 09, 2010 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government takeover of 401k's and IRA's
Replies: 20
Views: 3806

Re: Government takeover of 401k's and IRA's

rantsalot wrote:rants a lot

That, you do!
Now, go invest in some tin foil & leave us alone.
by walkinwood
Fri Nov 05, 2010 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple method of SWR without leaving a Big Pile at the End
Replies: 212
Views: 23615

How do you simulate your plan?

I started a spreadsheet, but what do you use as your starting portfolio value for year 2?

My guess is you'll have to modify firecalc if you want to simulate your plan.
by walkinwood
Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New/old Portfolio Withdrawal Scheme
Replies: 2
Views: 775

My head is spinning reading this.

May I suggest more tables/examples showing the 40 year payout as you move along in your explanations? I am lost.
by walkinwood
Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the 4% rule apply at any age?
Replies: 46
Views: 10327

Bob Clyatt advocated a variation of the 4% of portfolio value rule called the 4%/95% rule in his book Work Less, Live More. Google it for more details. Thanks for this reminder; I'd totally forgotten about this book and have just pulled it from my bookshelf to see what he says-- and I really need a...
by walkinwood
Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed president says US is close to Japan-style deflation
Replies: 19
Views: 3489

Having spent my career in the highly deflationary (on a unit price & price/performance basis) computer industry that is thriving; and having seen the immediate gratification behavior of the American consumer, I wonder if deflation in the US today will have the same outcome as Japan (a nation of ...
by walkinwood
Fri Jul 09, 2010 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We're almost to "The Death of Equities"!
Replies: 17
Views: 3268

Re: We're almost to "The Death of Equities"!

This structural issue is here in the US, as well. Just given the rule of thumb - 100 minus your age ... what is that demographic bulge called "the baby boomers" doing? They are selling equities and buying bonds. Their age range is approximately 45-65 presently. They are both at their peak...
by walkinwood
Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unveiling the Retirement myth [book] - frustrating.
Replies: 40
Views: 6608

The 6% withdrawal rate annoyed me at first too. He uses it to show how portfolio survival length varies based on strategies or myths. eg. on pg 48, he compares how long Bob's portfolio will last with the historical dividend, a 2% dividend or no dividend at all. The point isn't that the portfolio fai...
by walkinwood
Tue Jun 08, 2010 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gus Sauter on High Frequency Trading
Replies: 25
Views: 3878

He didn't explain his position that high speed trading led to reduced costs.

Maybe reduced costs (as a result of automated trading, lower hardware/software/maintenance costs, outsourcing) have led to high speed trading.

I don't see the cause & effect explained in the article.
by walkinwood
Wed May 19, 2010 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about financial periodicals
Replies: 15
Views: 2272

Try the Journal of Financial Planning
http://www.fpajournal.org/

I've found a lot of good material there. The articles are available for free online in the month that they are published, so save anything that you think you may need to reference in the future.
by walkinwood
Sat May 08, 2010 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But really, are you going to sit through 40% plus losses?
Replies: 61
Views: 9849

Even though I wasn't 100% in stock, I did live through a 40% drop in my portfolio value from 2000 - 2002. I kept my AA intact, but got out of all the individual stocks and bought broad based mutual funds.
by walkinwood
Thu May 06, 2010 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees - Help With Forbes Column
Replies: 59
Views: 10212

We 'retired' early on May 1, 2008. Knowing that we had maybe 50 years ahead of us, we discussed being flexible and were ready to return to work if needed. Unfortunately, 2008/09 happened. Late last year, we went back to work part-time - making enough to reduce withdrawals and let the portfolio recov...
by walkinwood
Sat Apr 17, 2010 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Tactics Question
Replies: 16
Views: 2324

This article deals with ways to rebalance using bands

http://www.tdainstitutional.com/pdf/Opp ... yanani.pdf
by walkinwood
Tue Apr 06, 2010 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non Deductable IRA
Replies: 3
Views: 595

Re: Non Deductable IRA

Do you think I am being stupid? Not at all. If you foresee being in a lower tax bracket when you start withdrawals from your IRA, you will be fine. As the other poster pointed out, you can also move T-IRA assets to a ROTH in years when your tax rate is lower than the current one - for example, if y...
by walkinwood
Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Static Asset Allocation vs. Shifting With Age
Replies: 23
Views: 3546

This topic is addressed in this article in this month's Journal of Financial Planning in the context of target date funds. m They analyse some strange scenarios like showing that being 100% in stocks until 10 years before retiring, and then doing an "age in bonds" allocation yields the bes...
by walkinwood
Fri Mar 05, 2010 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Online portfolio management tool
Replies: 50
Views: 8562

Vanguard's Prime Money Market ticker VMMXX is generating an error. It seems that there is no historical data available for this fund. Actually I could not find any historical security data for this ticker anywhere on the web! I checked Yahoo!, Google and MSN Money. Is there a location on the web wh...
by walkinwood
Thu Mar 04, 2010 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Online portfolio management tool
Replies: 50
Views: 8562

Vanguard's Prime Money Market ticker VMMXX is generating an error.
by walkinwood
Wed Mar 03, 2010 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Online portfolio management tool
Replies: 50
Views: 8562

Does it support mutual funds?
by walkinwood
Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the 4% rule apply at any age?
Replies: 46
Views: 10327

If you mean that you withdraw 4% of your portfolio value at the start of each year - sure! Be ready for a volatile budget! However, when people usually refer to the 4% SWR, they mean an inflation adjusted withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio. There is no consideration given to the value o...
by walkinwood
Sun Jan 17, 2010 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on SWR using equities and annuities
Replies: 6
Views: 1347

I started reading it with a lot of enthusiasm, but found it to be very complex & hard to understand. I'll read it again later. One fault I find (based on my own experience) is that, in the case of the 50-50 portfolio, the author assumes that the same AA is used before and after retirement. My ow...
by walkinwood
Tue Dec 01, 2009 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Yield vs Distribution Yield
Replies: 8
Views: 16741

I dug up this old thread in my search for an answer to the same question. Thanks to those who explained the SEC Yield. But I am still confused about how the distribution yield is calculated. For example, for VFSTX (Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond fund) The October 2009 dividend was .03283 declare...
by walkinwood
Thu Nov 19, 2009 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Safe Annual Withdrawal for Longer Retirement Periods
Replies: 15
Views: 2454

Guyton had written two papers a while ago that considered 40 year periods.

http://cornerstonewealthadvisors.com/fi ... rticle.pdf

and an older one from 2004.
http://cornerstonewealthadvisors.com/fi ... rticle.pdf

Also, Bob Clyatt addresses a 40 year period using his 4%/95% rule in his book Work Less, Live More.

Note: None of these studies use constant inflation adjusted withdrawals.
by walkinwood
Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roubini perspective on new bubbles
Replies: 8
Views: 2040

Can someone translate what Roubini is saying.

I understand the carry trade to mean that you borrow the low yielding currency (the US$ in this case) and lend in the high-yielding currency (forex in this case).

So, how is this inflating equities? That's where he loses me.
by walkinwood
Mon Sep 28, 2009 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Rational Irrationality' article in new yorker magazine
Replies: 8
Views: 2133

An excellent article. Thank you for posting.
by walkinwood
Sun Sep 27, 2009 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Band and Rebalancing Frequency
Replies: 33
Views: 5201

There is an article in the Jan 08 issue of Journal of Financial Planning called "Opportunistic Balancing : A new Paradigm for Wealth Managers". http://www.irebal.com/docs/Opportunistic_Rebalancing.pdf The conclusion is that a) Use rebalancing and 'tolerance' bands. Tolerance bands are 50% ...
by walkinwood
Tue Sep 22, 2009 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perl Actuarial Monte-Carlo Retirement Simulator
Replies: 30
Views: 4810

FLAW #1: The first flaw of the MC is how it generates randomness. My simulator uses historical returns rather than some mathematical distribution. FLAW #2: The second flaw of MC is that the outcomes it generates are random. It ignores the effects of secular trends. My simulator can be run in one of...
by walkinwood
Tue Sep 22, 2009 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perl Actuarial Monte-Carlo Retirement Simulator
Replies: 30
Views: 4810

Somewhere that I can't currently find, Milevsky developed a closed form model for retirement ruin with longevity. Using that formula one could presumably run MC analysis to establish the sensitivity of the model to the inputs. Here it is m He also discusses it in his book Are you a Stock or a Bond?
by walkinwood
Wed Aug 12, 2009 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio survival question with 4% withdrawl in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 2104

4.17% assumes you are taking out the 4% spending on Jan 1st of each year. Of course, in reality you wouldn't. Most people earn a salary either monthly or bi-weekly and earn 1/12 or 1/26 of their annual income. If your withdrawls matched the timing of your spending, you'd only need to earn about 4.0...
by walkinwood
Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Krugman on Efficient Markets and Rip Offs
Replies: 56
Views: 7144

Re: Paul Krugman on Efficient Markets and Rip Offs

What he gets backwards is that a belief in market efficiency leads to the belief that simple low-cost, broad-based, capitalization-weighted indexing is the best policy. It is a belief in market inefficiency that leads investors to pay higher fees to mutual fund managers who assert their ability to ...
by walkinwood
Fri Jul 10, 2009 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Emerging Markets Gain Record Share of World Equity Mar
Replies: 106
Views: 12301

Going back to the OP, I'd like to know the ratio of profits from the EM stocks compared to developed country stocks, or dividend ratios, or even revenue ratios. I don't know where to find that information. Just because EM stock valuation is high, doesn't mean we need to increase our allocation to it...
by walkinwood
Sun Jun 28, 2009 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The mechanics of Traditional IRA to Roth IRA transfers
Replies: 5
Views: 1646

Thanks Livesoft. It answered my questions.
by walkinwood
Sat Jun 27, 2009 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The mechanics of Traditional IRA to Roth IRA transfers
Replies: 5
Views: 1646

The mechanics of Traditional IRA to Roth IRA transfers

I will have very little income this year, so am planning to convert some of my traditional IRA funds to a Roth IRA and am hoping that people who have done this before can share some insights. If you could comment on my thoughts below, I would appreciate it. I am sure there are many others in my situ...
by walkinwood
Fri May 29, 2009 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: knowing Treasury yields when buying at auction?
Replies: 7
Views: 1409

Does the same hold true for TIP auctions? Or is there more information to be had or guessed at?
by walkinwood
Tue May 26, 2009 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Possible Scenario?
Replies: 4
Views: 1163

I'd rather listen to more credible doomsters.
by walkinwood
Thu May 21, 2009 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending sprees during recession 'compensatory consumption'
Replies: 3
Views: 1195

"Splurge" can have different magnitudes. I've heard people say they splurge on themselves by having a fancy coffee! That's quite different from a 52" flat screen tv or diamonds!
by walkinwood
Wed May 20, 2009 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPlanner Questions
Replies: 19
Views: 4864

Re: ESPlanner Questions

Can anyone direct me to an in-depth review of any of the paid versions of ESPlanner? Does it include screenshots, graphs, etc.? It doesn't appear that ESPlanner makes a help manual available online to regular visitors. I understand that ESPlanner tries to compute a "consumption smoothing"...
by walkinwood
Thu May 07, 2009 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on International Mutual Funds NAV
Replies: 3
Views: 1522

From the Harbor Funds: International Fund PRICING OF FUND SHARES Each Fund’s share price, called its net asset value or NAV per share, is calculated each day the NYSE is open for trading as of the close of regular trading on the NYSE, generally 4:00 p.m. eastern time. The NAV per share for each clas...
by walkinwood
Fri May 01, 2009 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 1/2 years to recover from 1929 crash
Replies: 3
Views: 980

Sorry for the duplicate posting. Please refer to the thread that tfb mentions.
by walkinwood
Fri May 01, 2009 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 crash: 4.5 not 25 years for recovery
Replies: 62
Views: 10726

Please excuse my ignorance, but what is "SBBI" and how do you access it?
Thanks.