Search found 6715 matches

by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear of dying with too much money?
Replies: 92
Views: 4052

Re: Fear of dying with too much money?

I do not fear the prospect of being dead, any more than I am traumatized by memories of the time during which I was not yet born. The dying process bothers me in certain ways. I've tried to mitigate them but I may not have sufficient control for my steps to make a material difference. Should I come ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is This Allocation Crazy?
Replies: 10
Views: 655

Re: Is This Allocation Crazy?

For really good advice you can post in our asking portfolio questions format. It includes enough information and context for people to help you.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Futures on inflation-linked bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 348

Re: Futures on inflation-linked bonds

Hi 24/7bull, and welcome to the forum.

I looked it up for you: TIPS futures.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1532

Re: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?

Before choosing a fund, one must ask themselves what they want to accomplish. Without that, there is no basis to choose a fund, index or otherwise. Choosing funds is the last step, not the first.

OP: What do you want to accomplish?

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing bands tighter than 5 / 25?
Replies: 17
Views: 1099

Re: Rebalancing bands tighter than 5 / 25?

The most important thing is to pick a policy, stick to it, and carry it out. Exact percentages are not nearly so important.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2211

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

bogglizer wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:50 am
...
Ha!
Except for market structure. I wrote about it in the middle of this post.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2211

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

... We need a sticky or something. This question is coming up every few days! Is it a variation of the old argument from actiive proponents that indexing isn't fair because it’s "free loading?” ... So far as I can tell it's no variation. It is the argument, made over and over, as if it were a moral...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2211

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

... Indexing works well IFF (not if) efficient markets exist. Markets become efficient when many smart people analyse it. If no one analyzed, no one picked winners or losers, on a number of basis, markets would stop being efficient. Then indexing would'nt work . It may make no difference to the poi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 81
Views: 7529

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

I read a post by another Boglehead in another thread where he or she mentioned that it's not just knowing whether the market is overvalued, but you also have to know whether the market participants collectively think the market is overvalued. I thought that was a really good explanation of why it's...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2211

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

Corporate earnings would continue to rise and the stock prices (and therefore indexes...indices?) would go up. Relax and enjoy the ride. Actually not, under the posited conditions. There would be no price discovery, therefore no reason for prices to move in any particular direction regardless of ea...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2211

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

There are structural reasons it will never happen. If so many people indexed that price discovery broke down and markets became informationally inefficient it would tempt investors to become active, and an equilibrium would be established. That's a question posed again and again in the press by peop...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond fund pricing [is supply/demand a factor?]
Replies: 3
Views: 199

Re: bond fund pricing [is supply/demand a factor?]

The bond market is vast, much larger than the stock market. Most players are large institutions with the latest information and ability to act on it. The reason there aren't bond exchanges is because an exchange is a special type of market - everything sold and bought on it is equivalent, just with...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 81
Views: 7529

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink: And if it were to happen tomorrow, a 10% correction in the US market would only take us back to the beginning of October 2017, a little over 3 months ago. Amazing, really. ... What is amazing about a volat...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pre-buying food. Agricultural commodities
Replies: 5
Views: 526

Re: Pre-buying food. Agricultural commodities

No, it is not pre-buying food. In a severe food crisis you couldn't go to ETF headquarters and demand your wheat and soybeans. It doesn't even lock in prices. You'd be paying someone to trade futures contracts for you. Producers, manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers use such contracts to manage...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 7187

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

I believe I heard some market guru say that upside moves or toppings end when the bulk of the investing public (including new investors drawn to the excitement of the rising market?) runs out of new money to throw in Exactly what does that mean, and what data could you look at to find out whether i...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?
Replies: 25
Views: 1535

Re: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?

OP asked about a variable annuity, which is a specific thing. Stable value funds are not that thing, not even in their GIC incarnations.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond fund pricing [is supply/demand a factor?]
Replies: 3
Views: 199

Re: bond fund pricing [is supply/demand a factor?]

Hi aptget, and welcome to the forum. Funds, index and otherwise, are simply vehicles by which to own the underlying holdings. If the market value of the holdings goes up, the fund goes up (using ordinary-type funds - there are others more esoteric). Yes, you could say that if the demand for a securi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Floating Rate Income Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 389

Re: Floating Rate Income Funds

If it's the floating rate part you like, rather than the leveraged and high credit risk part, the US Treasury auctions Floating Rate Notes.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2284

Re: Bond Market

... 20% loss in a week happens all the time in stocks? That doesn't seem right -- do you even remember a weekly loss that large in stocks ? I remember a daily loss bigger than that: Black Monday . PJW So it last happened a little over 30 years ago and garnered an ominous name -- I would not use "ha...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?
Replies: 25
Views: 1535

Re: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?

The answer is no, but one word answers, even if requested, aren't enough to stop me from explaining why I say such a thing. :happy There are two completely separate types of stable value funds, and neither resembles a variable annuity. I'll describe the older type first. You can read more details, a...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Healthcare Fund vs. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 456

Re: Vanguard Healthcare Fund vs. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund

The main opinion you'll find here is the expected return of each sector is the same, everybody else already knowing what you know about healthcare and health sciences and their prospects. The same goes for any other sector.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 81
Views: 7529

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink: And if it were to happen tomorrow, a 10% correction in the US market would only take us back to the beginning of October 2017, a little over 3 months ago. Amazing, really. ... What is amazing about a volat...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2284

Re: Bond Market

patrick wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:46 pm
...
20% loss in a week happens all the time in stocks? That doesn't seem right -- do you even remember a weekly loss that large in stocks?
I remember a daily loss bigger than that: Black Monday.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stock market vs USD
Replies: 9
Views: 1246

Re: US stock market vs USD

You raise a good point, one that should be understood. The US dollar, USD, is the most significant reserve currency in the world right now, but it hasn't always been, and has been declining as a proportion of the total. With respect to the type of study you showed, you have to choose what you mean b...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2284

Re: Bond Market

And on the plus side, it leaves you with 7%-yielding bonds and the possibility to buy more going forward, not a bad place to be. I was of belief that yields would take a considerable time to catch up with changes since they have to work their way through the fund? Say hypothetically interest rates ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2284

Re: Bond Market

My thinking is that if equities crash don't people usually flee to the safety of bonds? Your thinking is not correct, but probably it's because the hawkers-of-goods (financial media) keep saying they do. Who would buy a new Ford F-150, unless they needed it in a business or something silly like tha...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2284

Re: Bond Market

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:24 pm
I think it's not only Schiff, a lot of the press is reporting about an imminent bond market meltdown. ...
The press has been reporting about an imminent bond market meltdown continuously for several years. It's what they do.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 81
Views: 7529

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

... I think it's called a correction because it's supposed to rebalance (correct) sentiment, but I have no idea why they chose 10% for a "correction" and especially 20% for a "bear market." The 20% mark for a bear market has always confounded me. The thresholds are arbitrary, and the words used to ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-IRA Investment
Replies: 3
Views: 310

Re: Non-IRA Investment

Hi JeanneMD.

Our usual recommendation is to read and learn, think and feel, before committing to any big moves. You may wish to get started using our wiki page: Getting started.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?
Replies: 22
Views: 1510

Re: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?

Most of the recommendations I see here about investing large sums is to just do it as a lump sum. The reason given is that on average the market goes up so the odds favor investing all immediately. While this is true it seems like one is taking higher risk in this scenario. On the other side dollar...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: US escorted tours
Replies: 15
Views: 970

Re: US escorted tours

Green Tortoise is worth a look. It's quite an experience, if one is into that sort of thing.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?
Replies: 18
Views: 2632

Re: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?

bottlecap wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:29 am
Somebody makes a post like this every few weeks. It's been discussed ad naseum.
...
To wit: What if everybody indexed?

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budgeting Vs Savings Rate
Replies: 65
Views: 4329

Re: Budgeting Vs Savings Rate

Just to offer a possibility, I budget, but one line item is a set amount of dollars per week that are flexible. They cover food, dry cleaning, entertainment, whatever. If I don't spend all of it, the remainder accrues into what I non-GAAP-ly call discretionary funds , which I can use for something b...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early RMDs to Roth or Taxable?
Replies: 15
Views: 1092

Re: Early RMDs to Roth or Taxable?

Hmm.. when I go to do a conversion on Vanguard's website, they offer to withhold a portion of the conversion. I don't want to do this, since we'd rather pay the taxes later on from a taxable account (or let that money grow all year in the Roth IRA before taking it out of there). But they mention th...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1255

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

investing1012 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:37 pm
That’s much higher than i thought. Do you know what the average nominal growth rate has been over past 5 years?
You may wish to use this fishing pole.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1255

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

investing1012 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:19 pm
Is that 6% per year?
Compound Annual Growth Rate, yes. Six percent each year like clockwork, no.

I'd also note that was the yield. We don't know what the yield is, nor what it will be. Conflating verb tenses can be hazardous to your wealth.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 391

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

Beensabu wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:17 pm
...
Decent return with moderate risk in a diversified long term portfolio...
...
Pending your telling us what decent and moderate mean, you should look at the way your portfolio works together as a whole, not isolated components representing only 20% of it.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 391

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

... My guess is that REITs are there to hedge inflation and Long-Term Treasuries to hedge deflation. REITs would probably react to higher rates of inflation better than stocks would, but it is hard to say. I am just not as enthusiastic about REITs as I used to be. The yield chasers have made REITs ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 391

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

Any investment-grade bonds will diminish the risk and expected return of a REIT portfolio.

What are you trying to achieve?

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Minimizing effect of first speeding ticket
Replies: 28
Views: 2039

Re: Minimizing effect of first speeding ticket

It seems the question isn't about the ticket, but about the parents' permission. I'd tell them what you did, including all details, pay the fine out of your own funds, promise not to speed anymore, offer, if you have enough money, to pay any increase in the insurance premium, and if they let you con...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 162
Views: 17121

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

How can there be a 30 - 40 year bull market in securities which mature in no more than 30 years, with many issues maturing in less time than that? As investment-grade bonds approach maturity their market prices must of necessity approach their face values. If they were at a premium before, the decli...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chained CPI Impact
Replies: 8
Views: 913

Re: Chained CPI Impact

Chained CPI in the new tax bill is applied to the annual expansion of the tax brackets. It is not a new standard applied globally in place of CPI. I think chained CPI will also be used for determining SS benefit increases. It's been proposed repeatedly but so far there's been little legislative sup...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacement Suggestions For Microwave Oven
Replies: 22
Views: 1254

Re: Replacement Suggestions For Microwave Oven

The first thing I would do is test the circuit breaker. It may have become oversensitive during the course of three decades. That isn't to say I'm against replacing the microwave, but the first step in solving a problem is to identify where it lies. In technical support, for example, it's common to ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform
Replies: 12
Views: 1851

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform

Surely bond dealers also read the news, and adjust their bid and ask prices, which is the same as adjusting their bid and ask yields, in accordance with their interpretations of what has happened. No doubt more and more analysis will discover more and more implications.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?
Replies: 27
Views: 1507

Re: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?

... I’m 100% equity aside from my e-fund ... and will continue to feed my taxable account monthly 1/3 of my net pay and then max out my 401K starting in June ... I had a large cash position but I just used half of that to pay off my car in full Paid off Honda and low cost index funds - I’ve gone fu...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?
Replies: 27
Views: 1507

Re: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?

Main reason i ask is if they’re inversely correlated it would soften the blow of a crash more. However if they are not inversely correlated it may make more sense to invest in something else other than bonds with higher yields. Yes, cash That you then buy more stocks with as everyone else cries in ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?
Replies: 27
Views: 1507

Re: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?

I think they lose less than stocks. Yes, that's correct. Investment-grade bonds fluctuate less than common stocks, so they lose less and gain less, and the bond losses and gains have a near-zero correlation with stock price fluctuations. That doesn't mean they move in the opposite direction. It mea...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income
Replies: 41
Views: 2161

Re: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income

... Yes I get all of the above, but what I am talking about and is often overlooked on the forum is that an index like VTSAX also offers a dividend yield of 1.75% currently. This div yield actually goes up in-times of crisis due to companies wanting to attract investors. So I am not talking about a...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?
Replies: 27
Views: 1507

Re: Do bonds generally go up when the stock market crashes?

Here's an earlier thread I started on the subject:

et tu, Vanguard? Stock/Bond zig-zag myth

Reviewing it may help with your question.

PJW