Search found 7368 matches

by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: short term insurance between jobs
Replies: 5
Views: 192

Re: short term insurance between jobs

Are you eligible for COBRA continuation insurance? The way Congress wrote the law you have 60 days to decide whether to buy it, and expenses incurred during that time are covered if you end up deciding yes. That would neatly cover your gap, if available.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 89
Views: 3449

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

... You seem wedded to the EMH, but I don't understand why. It's just a hypothesis, and for whatever role Fama played in it, he flat out said that markets aren't efficient and that what's in question is how inefficient markets are and can we identify inefficiencies a priori . But you seem to be dou...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Census [Received form in mail]
Replies: 21
Views: 1678

Re: Census

The next census is slated for 2020, and it is supposed to make more use of the Internet than before. Do they start collecting the data two years early? I don't know. But the fact that the follow-up letter came so soon after the first one makes me a little suspicious. There is an annual survey of pa...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 89
Views: 3449

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

In a discussion yesterday where I was trying to articulate my thoughts on EMH, I wrote that since EMH cannot be tested because it has no predictive power (due to the joint hypothesis problem - meaning that you will never kown whether it's EMH that is false, or the asset pricing model used that is f...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Both Stocks and Bonds Fall, Where Does the Money Go?
Replies: 12
Views: 1754

Re: When Both Stocks and Bonds Fall, Where Does the Money Go?

One thing I can't quite understand on a day like yesterday is that when there's a significant amount of stock selling, the 10-year bond yield also rose. Which means there were more people selling 10-year bonds than buying, right? Or do bond yields work in a different way than my simple-minded suppl...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What did you buy today
Replies: 108
Views: 7419

Re: What did you buy today

Canned corn.

Last week I was at almost, but not quite all the way to, my top level stock tolerance. Now, without taking action, I'm a little above target and well within my band.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: canned response to email
Replies: 2
Views: 521

Re: canned response to email

Vanguard does not know if you have other RMD-requirement accounts that aren't with them, so they can't calculate.

Vanguard is trying to be more responsive and spend less money by providing standard answers based on keywords. That happens everywhere these days.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?
Replies: 40
Views: 4330

Re: When stock and bod drop at the same time, what do you do?

What I personally do is keep in mind stocks and intermediate-term investment-grade bonds have had approximately zero correlation, which is not the same as negative, and that we've discussed it here before.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 581

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

If you need to access/start spending these funds in less than 5.2 years(duration of the fund) you may get nicked by the rising rates. But if your horizon for this investment is over 5.2 years, the increased interest will make up for any capital loss of principal. I have most of my TIRA in Intermedi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 581

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

What do you expect Vanguard's Intermediate-term Tax-exempt Fund, VWIUX, to do in the context of your portfolio? If it has little realistic chance of doing such a thing then sure, get out of it, but after that what will you plan to put the money into which will do what you expect?
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down
Replies: 38
Views: 3338

Re: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down

Target-date funds let investment advisers, who don't know where next month's boat payment is coming from, down.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SPY vs SPXL [SPDR S&P 500 vs Direxion Daily S&P 500 3X leveraged]
Replies: 4
Views: 213

Re: SPY vs SPXL [SPDR S&P 500 vs Direxion Daily S&P 500 3X leveraged]

For my long-term investments, say my 401K, where I won't/don't want to withdraw my money for 15-20 years, if the odds are very, very strong that the S&P will be more in 2038 than what it is today, should I just put my money in SPXL rather than SPY? Welcome your insights. Hi BobaTeaGood, and welcome...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LTHC Insurance ??
Replies: 10
Views: 780

Re: LTHC Insurance ??

I don't know, OP, what you should do today, or your financial tradeoffs. About a decade ago I had an opportunity to buy into group LTC insurance. We had plenty of notice. I chose to pay for it. I maintain it to this day, and plan to continue. Contrary to many rationales posted here at www.bogleheads...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3712

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

See, for example, continual use of the term Safe Withdrawal Rate for what the original authors called a Sustainable Withdrawal Rate. Lucky coincidence about the initialisms, right? This is wrong and exactly backwards. Here is the 1994 article by William Bengen that invented/discovered/whatever the ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rate of return in negative
Replies: 16
Views: 1871

Re: Rate of return in negative

New to investing & started my 401k around month & half ago. I am investing $1500/month to Vanguard Instl Trgt Retire 2050 Instl. I know rate of return fluctuates but it's currently at (-1.50%). Rate of return is in negative. Is this normal & expected? Hi Guacamole. Yes, stocks and bonds (both of wh...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is your risk tolerance to dollars or percentages?
Replies: 17
Views: 1178

Re: Is your risk tolerance to dollars or percentages?

... Assuming stocks can lose 50% in any given year, the 50/50 1M portfolio can lose about 250K and the 30/70 2M portfolio can lose about 300K. In reality, each of those portfolios would lose a bit less because the correlation of bonds to equities turns strong negative in bad times for equities . Da...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is your risk tolerance to dollars or percentages?
Replies: 17
Views: 1178

Re: Is your risk tolerance to dollars or percentages?

I am sensitive to the dollar value of the portfolio as a whole expressed as a multiple of my projected annual expenses, calculated in real terms. Here's what I did , and a couple of years later I answered some questions about it . For the record, I think an age-based asset allocation will be far mor...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3712

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

I entirely agree. The 'bonds are for safety' idea needs significant revision. I believe that its proponents generally mean 'bonds are less volatile than stocks in the short-term', which is much more accurate, but this isn't as catchy. ... Your belief is correct, and at least here at www.bogleheads....
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4786

Re: Flattening yield curve

Thank you, JoeRetire, for continuing to make the point I made . If anybody doesn't understand how yield curve changes and recessions can both be effects of yet a third thing, with neither of the first two causing the other, they may want to read this article on confounding variables . PJW Thanks. I...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan For Depleting Your Investments If No Heirs?
Replies: 39
Views: 4636

Re: Plan For Depleting Your Investments If No Heirs?

I have nobody I'm financially responsible for, which informs my plan. I mean to spend enough to have a reasonable, to me, lifestyle until I die. Anything that's left, which could be nothing or could be a lot, goes to selected charities with my best wishes. I'm pretty sure that after I've died I will...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Income Tax (NJ) question on Gain from selling Treasury Bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 376

Re: State Income Tax (NJ) question on Gain from selling Treasury Bonds

There are two ways to buy a bond for less than its face, or par, value. One is if the security is originally issued for less than its par value, and the second is if its market value falls below. For Treasuries, which is what you asked about, in the first instance the ultimate change in value over t...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4786

Re: Flattening yield curve

Thank you, JoeRetire, for continuing to make the point I made.

If anybody doesn't understand how yield curve changes and recessions can both be effects of yet a third thing, with neither of the first two causing the other, they may want to read this article on confounding variables.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice
Replies: 77
Views: 9978

Re: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice

... I'm not saying FDIC/NCUA insurance isn't useful/valuable. But just to consider what it's actually insuring you against: your bank failing and your money "disappearing" along with it. Money in a savings account is used by the bank itself as capital to produce interest (for the bank and you) via ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice
Replies: 77
Views: 9978

Re: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice

I think people tend to overvalue FDIC. It ensures your money if the bank/CU goes under up to a certain amount. Vanguard's federal MM vmfxx is paying over 2% now. For that fund to have a problem it would mean the US government is not paying on its securities, in which case your dollars are going to ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4786

Re: Flattening yield curve

Anyone feel this is leading to RECESSION? I have no feelings either way. I created a plan for all foreseeable weather, and stick to it, and realize a bad thing could happen to me from which I couldn't possibly recover. I suppose, not feel, that a flattening yield curve is an effect, not a cause. PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you had to choose...
Replies: 7
Views: 812

Re: If you had to choose...

Bhairston2018 wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:31 pm
Warren Buffet has been on record as being an advocate for the S&P index fund...with that being said, what fund would you choose if you could only pick one?
I would choose to change the rules, even if that meant running for office myself.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond index and rising interest rates
Replies: 17
Views: 2017

Re: bond index and rising interest rates

Interest rates are going up. Existing bonds prices are going down. If I have a Total Bond Market Index is the net effect good or bad for my Bond Index fund ??? Hi bluegill, and welcome to the forum. Over the long run bond returns come from their coupon payments. If you are a long-term investor, and...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice
Replies: 77
Views: 9978

Re: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice

Have both an Ally no penalty and Vanguard prime money market. Just wondering if the "dividends" for the money market are treated differently than interest from the CDs? Are they dividends in the sense that those held longer are taxed lower? Dividends from taxable US fixed-income funds are treated t...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washington DC with Side Trips Mount Vernon & Monticello Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 762

Re: Washington DC with Side Trips Mount Vernon & Monticello Advice

It's been so many years I have no logistical recommendations, but I think it is important to see and experience former slave-worked plantations like the two you asked about.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Efficiency for accounts
Replies: 4
Views: 413

Re: Tax Efficiency for accounts

You may be interested in our wiki article: Tax-efficient fund placement.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Take the hit or ride it out?
Replies: 21
Views: 3627

Re: Take the hit or ride it out?

A loss is a loss, regardless of whether it's realized. Yours seems more like an accounting question. Do you want to normalize your assets to GBP or USD? No corporation has to do that except for quarterly reports. Do you want to normalize your assets to GBP or USD? Even if so you won't need to engage...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 480

Re: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?

Neither the IRS nor a tax court has given us the least guidance about whether two funds, which includes ETFs (F stands for fund) are substantially identical. I'm pretty sure merely adopting the same investment universe wouldn't, even in the most expansive definition, qualify. But we don't know for a...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2548

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

So does this mean that if inflation unexpectedly drops, the NAV of tips will go down? Kind of the opposite of nominal bonds, where the NAV will go up if interest rates go down? Or will the NAV go up if inflation drops? ... Please don't conflate the adjusted principal value of a bond with its market...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should an emergency fund be for all emergencies?
Replies: 9
Views: 994

Re: Should an emergency fund be for all emergencies?

It is not the case that most individuals, including most of we extremely economically fortunate people here, can cover absolutely every contingency. Insurance has a role, reducing one's expectations has one, and recognizing one might get into trouble they can't get out of plays one. Imagine being se...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lifetime alignment services
Replies: 14
Views: 961

Re: Lifetime alignment services

I don't know what you personally should do, but please note lifetime means the corporation's lifetime, if shorter than yours.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Financial Crisis
Replies: 4
Views: 630

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Financial Crisis

Looking at the causes of the crisis, I can’t help but think that no one ever blames the individual who bit off more than he could chew when he bought that house. An individual’s self approval of a loan should be way more critical than the bank’s approval. Dave Plenty of people place the blame squar...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: individual bond ladder vs bond fund
Replies: 5
Views: 471

Re: individual bond ladder vs bond fund

Hi rm. Your adviser is either wrong or misleading you. A bond fund holds a bond ladder. If you held the same set of bonds the fund holds and managed them the same way their market values would change day by day just like the fund's NAV does. I won't speculate on adviser motive behind the advice. To ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: confused on how tips work
Replies: 7
Views: 793

Re: confused on how tips work

gips wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:07 am
thanks! still, it seems to me the wiki article is incorrect. shouldn't the balance have been adjusted positively when the index rose?
TIPS principal values change each business day, with a lag from the most recently announced CPI-U measurement.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: confused on how tips work
Replies: 7
Views: 793

Re: confused on how tips work

... here are my questions: - is the term "deflation" in the wiki meant to denote a decrease in the inflation rate or is it when the inflation rate falls below 0%? - If the former, should the principal have been adjusted up after the second payment and down after the third payment? If so, doesn't th...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kudos for passive investors
Replies: 4
Views: 846

Re: Kudos for passive investors

And yet, the two largest actively managed mutual funds have beaten Vanguard Total Market handily this year, and for the long term : FCNTX AGTHX https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%2F28%2F2018&initia...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kudos for passive investors
Replies: 4
Views: 846

Re: Kudos for passive investors

And yet, the two largest actively managed mutual funds have beaten Vanguard Total Market handily this year, and for the long term : FCNTX AGTHX https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%2F28%2F2018&initia...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is high inflation a good thing while working?
Replies: 40
Views: 2670

Re: Is high inflation a good thing while working?

With respect to debt being a, the word in this thread has been hedge but it doesn't satisfy the definition, it comes at a cost. More debt increases risk. That's not to say people are fools for choosing such a path, but it isn't free and individuals should be aware.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6073

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

You did not show a misunderstanding of what the Fed did, but just to be clear, especially for others who may come across this thread, the Fed changed the target rate for overnight loans of reserves among banks. The Fed does not control interest rate s , plural. The rate it changed the target for is...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6073

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Hi OP. Your question is one for books, debates, conferences, varying opinions, and sometimes shouting matches. I won't attempt to post all of them at once. You did not show a misunderstanding of what the Fed did, but just to be clear, especially for others who may come across this thread, the Fed ch...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6073

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Our money supply is not a "free market". It is heavily managed, and it's managed with a mandate to maximize employment, stabilize prices, and moderate long-term interest rates . Those are indeed the statutory objectives of the Federal Reserve System, as mandated by Congress which created the Fed. PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is high inflation a good thing while working?
Replies: 40
Views: 2670

Re: Is high inflation a good thing while working?

Hi OP. Anybody who saves the same amount per year as they spend will be in a fairly good position. With respect to inflation, as a portfolio grows larger it makes more and more sense to invest accordingly. Nobody will get a free lunch, but saving one year's expenses every year makes for some future ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 237
Views: 23813

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

Down to four basis points now.

I won't bother to specify tenths of a basis point, that is, 1/1,000 of one percent.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 50
Views: 6482

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

The idea of indexing is that you simply ride the wave, whether it goes up or down. In a down market, of course indexers will lose money, but only on paper . ... Unrealized losses are still losses. Pretending they aren't can lead to poor financial decisionmaking, like holding on to an investment tha...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: JP Morgan Structured Investments - What am I missing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1452

Re: JP Morgan Structured Investments - What am I missing?

If JP Morgan Chase could raise capital at a lower cost by issuing simple bonds they would. What's in it for them?
PJW