Search found 9558 matches

by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 28, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bigger risk to stock market - deflation or inflation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1150

Re: Bigger risk to stock market - deflation or inflation?

The government and corporations have taken on trillions of dollars of debt, and that is no problem because it costs very little to service that debt, since interest rates are so low. But if inflation picked up, and the Fed had to switch gears and start hiking up rates, would that not be a huge gut ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 27, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bigger risk to stock market - deflation or inflation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1150

Re: Bigger risk to stock market - deflation or inflation?

Both are risks. I don't understand the question about which is worse. Inflation has been more frequent in US-market detailed recorded history since the 1920s, but both have been bad.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Falcon 9 Launch to the International Space Station
Replies: 129
Views: 8765

Re: Falcon 9 Launch to the International Space Station

My understanding from NASA is the launch window today, for just a 19-hour transit, was only one second wide. Miss it and the astronauts would miss the ISS. Given the weather conditions they had no choice but to scrub at least until the next window on Saturday.

Mean old Mr. Newton.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 27, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble
Replies: 58
Views: 3967

Re: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble

It appears the alleged extreme tulip bubble was a slanderous story made up after the fact by domestic moralists. PJW Perhaps, but the ideas suggested by the story are real. That author might not have found evidence (400 years later) that anyone went bankrupt from Tulips, but we can find more modern...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 27, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 4450

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

The Bloomberg Barclay's Aggregate Index, and thus Total Bond, and thus the Total Bond component of Vanguard's all-in-one funds, do not include TIPS. It's not a big deal because TIPS only amount to, IIRC, about 4% of all Treasury securities. People have been scandalized by Vanguard's using the word ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 27, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble
Replies: 58
Views: 3967

Re: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble

It appears the alleged extreme tulip bubble was a slanderous story made up after the fact by domestic moralists.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 27, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If not 3 fund, whats your strategy ?
Replies: 66
Views: 4489

Re: If not 3 fund, whats your strategy ?

I use three-fund plus TIPS. The allocation is:

25% Total US stock
15% Total international stock
40% inflation-protected fixed income
20% nominal fixed income.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 27, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode
Replies: 20
Views: 2916

Re: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode

For example, about two thirds of the US economy's production is consumed domestically. I may or may not be a typical producer and consumer, but nobody, except potentially a spouse, can buy stock in me. Off topic but I've always thought it's odd that you can't invest in people. I'm sure a lot of peo...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon May 25, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs High Yield Savings
Replies: 4
Views: 704

Re: TIPS vs High Yield Savings

If I may, because it has caused large real-world problems in the past, posters are referring to Series I Savings Bonds . The terms I Bonds, or I-bonds, or iBonds (which reads to me as if they must be bonds issued by Apple, Inc.), only cause confusion. There was a post here, years ago, because poster...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon May 25, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode
Replies: 20
Views: 2916

Re: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode

The stock market is not the economy. The economy provides products and services and consumes products and services. Some publicly-traded companies do that, perhaps most. But the great majority of production and consumption is not business-to-business publicly-traded corporations. It is unreasonable ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon May 25, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Air conditioner stocks
Replies: 27
Views: 1930

Re: Air conditioner stocks

As much as working from home this summer may encourage purchases of air conditioners, except for less-than-full office buildings, it will discourage them in the southern hemisphere. Supply chains are global.

It's a big wide world out there.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon May 25, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?
Replies: 73
Views: 13540

Re: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?

Within recent history, the longest period began with the October Revolution, which took place in November. The victory of the CCP over the Kuomintang also had an effect. In older history there were longer periods in which businesses lost value. PJW Hi Phineas, Is this tongue-in-check? Those two eve...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon May 25, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 123
Views: 8302

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

No, although I did come out substantially ahead once, without attempting to time the market. It was shares of my employer from an incentive stock option. I decided to hold them long enough to qualify for long-term capital gain tax. I chose a floor value I wouldn't tolerate going below. A month or so...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat May 23, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I go to grad school?
Replies: 24
Views: 1711

Re: Should I go to grad school?

I have two graduate degrees earned years apart from different universities in different subjects, the second a terminal degree. It's tough. Many started. Few finished.

If, as you say, it doesn't align with your long-term goals I would suggest not to attempt it.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 22, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial advice for undertaking a PhD
Replies: 47
Views: 3255

Re: Financial advice for undertaking a PhD

If I may add, and this not a question for you to answer for us, it's a question for you to answer for yourself, why would you like to earn a doctorate in whatever field it is? There are considerations that aren't constrained to the monetary. Around here posters often focus on return on investment, b...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 22, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assuming we start paying banks to hold our money (in the US)
Replies: 49
Views: 4300

Re: Assuming we start paying banks to hold our money (in the US)

My impression is that only LARGE accounts held by institutions get the negative interest rates while smaller retail accounts don't get negative interest rates. That is, I don't think that I will get negative interest rates, but I kinda hope so because then my bond funds should do rather well, shoul...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 22, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7678

Re: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?

I have. Why do you ask? PJW As I consider beefing up my Emergency Fund, I can't help but to think about the opportunity cost associated with not investing that additional cash in the market. So am trying to strike that balance between securing enough cash in case of an emergency vs. putting that ca...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 22, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7678

Re: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?

I have. Why do you ask?
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 21, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?
Replies: 18
Views: 2251

Re: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?

Ain't no 4% rule. It's an empirical observation of the past. The past is not the future. Nobody knows the future, with Franklin's famous exceptions of death and taxes.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 21, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sold some stock on new highs today!
Replies: 23
Views: 2470

Re: Sold some stock on new highs today!

I follow my plan and turn the crank.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 21, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 12004

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Has Tepper offered to reimburse you personally for opportunity costs? If not, all the risk is yours and all the prestige is theirs.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 21, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In taxable, why are bond funds "discouraged" but not money market funds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1901

Re: In taxable, why are bond funds "discouraged" but not money market funds?

Who, specifically, discourages bond mutual funds but not money market mutual funds in taxable accounts? Is there a URL we can look at to see the reasoning?
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 21, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assuming we start paying banks to hold our money (in the US)
Replies: 49
Views: 4300

Re: Assuming we start paying banks to hold our money (in the US)

There is Fed-determined interest on excess reserves, and there are consumer savings accounts. I have long opined the latter will not have explicitly negative rates, probably stopping at 0.1%, followed by monthly fees, enough to bring in to the bank the revenue that an explicit negative interest rate...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?
Replies: 73
Views: 13540

Re: What is the longest period for stock market to lose money?

Within recent history, the longest period began with the October Revolution, which took place in November. The victory of the CCP over the Kuomintang also had an effect. In older history there were longer periods in which businesses lost value.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curves During Deflation
Replies: 11
Views: 1259

Re: Yield Curves During Deflation

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon May 18, 2020 2:44 pm is the yield curve predictive of a recession (or coming out of one, which I assume you're more interested in)?

are we experiencing deflation? I'm not experiencing that at the grocery store.
And, as we've made you well aware, food is but one aspect of CPI-U.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investments right now
Replies: 17
Views: 1672

Re: Investments right now

Airlines have enormous fixed costs. Maybe some will survive. Air travel certainly will, but perhaps not owned by the current shareholders. Most restaurants have low margins. Maybe some large chains will survive. Individually-owned restaurants probably aren't investable in public stock markets anyway...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 20662

Re: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.

Sometimes, I can't do it every day, but sometimes I like to cook boneless duck breast for dinner. PJW :sharebeer ah, kindred spirits. Not exactly the same, but I like to cook confit de canard about two times a month depending on when my supplier gets in the duck legs from Quebec. I can get duck leg...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 20662

Re: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.

I don't play this game, but my brother is into serial marriage. He is on his third wife and has two kids with her. Think about how expensive that hobby could get. We have a winner! In January we went the wedding of the father of my wife's best friend...it was #6 and I believe her 4th. I'm 'enry the...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backdrop for Dow 10,000
Replies: 9
Views: 1726

Re: Backdrop for Dow 10,000

Yes, of course it could happen, even if we ignore that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is just thirty stocks, and they're weighted by individual share price, not by corporation value; albeit adjusted for stock splits and reverse splits. We don't know future stock prices. A rational investor must ac...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Covid impact: CA license renewal and REAL ID
Replies: 13
Views: 1055

Re: Covid impact: CA license renewal and REAL ID

With the pandemic the deadline for conforming with the REAL ID Act was pushed back by one year. It's October 2021 now. Contrary to popular understanding, including as expressed here, it isn't merely a matter of the physical design of the ID, driver license or otherwise. The complex parts, the contro...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Rollover Timing and Covid Volatility
Replies: 9
Views: 399

Re: 401K Rollover Timing and Covid Volatility

Assuming one has a multi-decade investment horizon, and keeping in mind people do not need to spend the entire value of their portfolio on the first day of retirement, it makes sense to move the assets, as cost- and tax-efficiently as possible, and invest in the same proportions, equities / fixed in...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 20662

Re: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.

Sometimes, I can't do it every day, but sometimes I like to cook boneless duck breast for dinner.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes, Selling Stocks _RAISES_ Prices
Replies: 4
Views: 333

Re: Sometimes, Selling Stocks _RAISES_ Prices

Last week, in response to responsible, well-reasoned advice from seasoned economists and investment industry professionals, I lowered my exposure to equities in the face of predictions of long-term structural damage to the U.S. and world economies. So . . . the market's up about 4% since that "resp...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed May 20, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?
Replies: 61
Views: 5321

Re: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?

I got smacked on this in March. It went down way more than the index's and hasn't come back. What gives? Will it recover, or is it a terrible methodology? Why should one expect a portfolio that significantly departs from an index will match it in total return over two months? That makes no sense. PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 15, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who needs a firewall and who doesn't?
Replies: 18
Views: 1347

Re: Who needs a firewall and who doesn't?

Does the famous channel have a URL?

Does the tech guy have a name?

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 15, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Tracking (Excess Holdings)
Replies: 3
Views: 321

Re: Index Tracking (Excess Holdings)

... Thanks for the welcome and comment. You are right, it's just a snapshot as of 3/31/20. I have forgotten that! We'll see how it goes over time. Maybe it is not deliberate, but lagging for efficiency and cost reasons. I'll add my welcome. With respect to deliberate or not, and efficiency and cost...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 15, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve Spending
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Re: Federal Reserve Spending

The article's asserted-as-true "plunge protection team" is a conspiracy theory. There is in fact a Working Group on Financial Markets.

It's on Investopedia. Look it up for yourself.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 15, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4569

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 8:47 am ...
Just because it’s the market doesn’t mean it’s right.
What's the market-external standard for what is right?

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 15, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GAAP and non GAAP?
Replies: 24
Views: 1398

Re: Why GAAP and non GAAP?

With respect to creating shares out of thin air, what would be preferable? To dig physical ore out of share mines?
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 15, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2020 Retirement Confidence Survey - where do you stand in all these stat categories?
Replies: 3
Views: 577

Re: 2020 Retirement Confidence Survey - where do you stand in all these stat categories?

Thanks for the link. Based on the results, versus other surveys in which, for example, no more than half of households have liquid assets enough to cover a $400 emergency expense, I can't help but think the sample is self-selected, and therefore not representative. I would draw no conclusions.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri May 15, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Future Return of Vanguard’s Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1523

Re: Expected Future Return of Vanguard’s Target Retirement Funds

Of course it can. Obviously the devil is in the details: how much higher the stock allocation is and how inadequate the saving rate. Stocks are only expected - but not guaranteed - to have higher returns than bonds. If it were guaranteed, it wouldn't be risk. How can it be any other way? Yes. And? ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 14, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Future Return of Vanguard’s Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1523

Re: Expected Future Return of Vanguard’s Target Retirement Funds

Unfortunately, a higher stock allocation cannot make up for an inadequate savings rate. Of course it can. Obviously the devil is in the details: how much higher the stock allocation is and how inadequate the saving rate. Stocks are only expected - but not guaranteed - to have higher returns than bo...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 14, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]
Replies: 59
Views: 4857

Re: New bogleheads induction

I don't think a separate subforum for people clinging to frequently-refuted notions will be useful. Who would start a thread in it? For the past couple of weeks I haven't posted because I got sick of debunking the same bunk which, in that instance by a new poster but it isn't always, got rebunked. I...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu May 14, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If “cost” is the #1 reason Active managers lose, why not use Vanguard’s low-cost active funds?
Replies: 61
Views: 3863

Re: If “cost” is the #1 reason Active managers lose, why not use Vanguard’s low-cost active funds?

If active managers (and mutual funds are only a smallish fraction of the entire equity market -- large institutions trading their own accounts and trading for their customers make up the bulk of the value and nearly all of the volume) can reliably beat the market average, all of us, including the in...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat May 02, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are mutual funds fees calculated if the year is negative?
Replies: 18
Views: 1896

Re: How are mutual funds fees calculated if the year is negative?

Slowtraveler wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:27 pm They're calculated as a percentage of assets, gain normally is besides the point.

They're deducted from dividends or interest in most cases, in my experience.
The expense ratio is deducted daily, when capital markets are open, from the net asset value.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat May 02, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are mutual funds fees calculated if the year is negative?
Replies: 18
Views: 1896

Re: How are mutual funds fees calculated if the year is negative?

On the other hand, hedge funds in the US normally charge two percent of assets, plus twenty percent of return. The manager's income is tax advantaged. If the return is negative they don't have to hand over twenty percent of the loss as a positive payment to their clients. It's an asymmetrical struct...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat May 02, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did my semi-annual re-balancing approach just cost me an easy 1.5% portfolio gain?
Replies: 9
Views: 743

Re: Did my semi-annual re-balancing approach just cost me an easy 1.5% portfolio gain?

Rebalancing a mixed stock / bond portfolio is not a technique to maximize portfolio returns. Over long periods of time it can be expected to reduce them.

It's a risk management technique. It keeps your portfolio risks roughly where you decided you'd like them to be, in approximate terms.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat May 02, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: It seems the writing is on the wall...question about cash allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1972

Re: It seems the writing is on the wall...question about cash allocation

OP: The course of action seems attractive because you know the future.

I won't do what you're contemplating, because I don't know the future.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat May 02, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway is hammered
Replies: 60
Views: 12015

Re: Berkshire Hathaway is hammered

In what way does paper value of investments differ from value of investments? It's in the original post's quote of Marketwatch. How, precisely, does the word "paper" change the meaning?
PJW