Search found 122 matches

by Bob.Beeman
Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you roll your own financial analysis tools, what do you use?
Replies: 56
Views: 3454

Re: If you roll your own financial analysis tools, what do you use?

For rebalancing and withdrawals I use a home-made browser-based web application.

Linked Here.

I have used it since about 2006. Primitive, but gets the job done. You can just save the whole page to your file system and use it off line by pointing to the file.

- Bob.Beeman
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New MacBook Pro with M1 processor
Replies: 129
Views: 9825

Re: New MacBook Pro with M1 processor

I am rocking a 2012 iMac, by that standard mine is pre-historic. :P But I might get the min too. Right now I am posting this with my "24 inch 4GB early 2009 iMac" running 10.10.3. Works fine for general browsing and developing interactive web pages. Also my 2008 MS Office still works. Obv...
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did the 4% rule just become the 5% rule? :)
Replies: 139
Views: 15366

Re: Did the 4% rule just become the 5% rule? :)

The oldest articles I remember seeing on a "4% rule" were by longtime Boglehead William Bernstein. He was a contributor to this site and its predecessor: Morningstar's "Vanguard Diehards" discussion board for many years. His EfficientFrontier.com site had a feature called, approp...
by Bob.Beeman
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Science Fiction Movies
Replies: 179
Views: 8700

Re: Favorite Science Fiction Movies

What no Trekkies?! No votes for Star Trek and no votes for Star Wars either. So that's a tie for those genres. I would argue that Star Wars is not science fiction. There’s more magic (the force) than science. Star Wars is more akin to Harry Potter than it is to Star Trek. +1 Star Wars is clearly Fa...
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]
Replies: 157
Views: 15927

Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

A much more severe loss for the US was on April 12, 1945. On that day Hitler was still alive, Germany had not yet surrendered, the Japanese government was preparing to put all its remaining troops and millions of women and children with rifles and spears on their coasts against an allied invasion, n...
by Bob.Beeman
Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens after the risk shows up?
Replies: 41
Views: 4323

Re: What happens after the risk shows up?

The US market always recovers. Always. It’s never different this time. Investing is a game of rinse and repeat At some point it will be different; of course nobody knows when. I disagree. See, here's the logic: because the market has always recovered, that means it always will recover. That's the v...
by Bob.Beeman
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Norstad website missing [The Fallacy of Time Diversification]
Replies: 22
Views: 4285

Re: John Norstad website missing [The Fallacy of Time Diversification]

Another good article by William Bernstein " The Retirement Calculator from Hell " sheds some light on this as well. I think this was the article that triggered discussion of the "Safe 4% Annual Withdrawal Rule". - Bob.Beeman PS: John Norstad was the genius behind "Disinfecta...
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?
Replies: 109
Views: 7543

Re: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?

Even if you do not know the underlying probability distribution function for the data itself, the Central Limit Theorem says that the sample means of your data will almost always have a normal distribution. A nice exposition here . A fun way to help young children discover some of the intuition beh...
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?
Replies: 109
Views: 7543

Re: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?

Standard deviation is not restricted to Gaussian distribution. It is certainly possible to calculate a "standard deviation" for any group and any arrangement of number pairs. But if you do so and do not assume Gaussian (or some other definite) DISTRIBUTION of the values you cannot use thi...
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?
Replies: 109
Views: 7543

Re: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?

Standard deviation is not restricted to Gaussian distribution. It is certainly possible to calculate a "standard deviation" for any group and any arrangement of number pairs. But if you do so and do not assume Gaussian (or some other definite) DISTRIBUTION of the values you cannot use thi...
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?
Replies: 109
Views: 7543

Re: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?

No one has assumed Gaussian distributions for returns for at least 50 years. Our own Bogleheads site seems to disagree with you. There is a page on this very site Vanguard statistical data spreadsheets which links to CAGR, Standard Deviation, and Variance data for returns of a large number of Vangu...
by Bob.Beeman
Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?
Replies: 109
Views: 7543

Re: Can Academics Beat the Stock Market?

Most, if not all, academics attempt to analyze the markets by assuming that returns of securities and portfolios are based on Gaussian statistics which assumes, in analysis of the markets, that: 1. There are an infinite number of securities, portfolios, and investors. 2. Each of the investors acts (...
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Books that changed your life]
Replies: 577
Views: 62616

Re: Books that changed your life

"... "The Fountainhead" were the strong influences in my late teens while developing my sense of self and understanding of society. IMHO "Anthem" summarizes Ayn Rand's philosophy (Objectivism) briefly and with more clarity than "The Fountainhead", but both are wor...
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tales of Uncanny Security Codes
Replies: 29
Views: 2251

Re: Tales of Uncanny Security Codes

Not a security code but many years ago I moved to a new city and got my knew phone number (before cellphones) and it was something like 123-0000. I thought how cool it was to have a number that ended in four zeroes. Things could be a lot worse. Your number could be 867-5309 But then at least it wou...
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tales of Uncanny Security Codes
Replies: 29
Views: 2251

Re: Tales of Uncanny Security Codes

People often make mistakes in judging the probability of things by casual rules of thumb. Mathematically, all 6-digit codes are equally probable if a Truly Random source is used. In a world where all users are logical, limiting the selection, for example not using any that start (or end) in 3 zeros,...
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Proposal to represent a dynamic word cloud in Boglehead's main page
Replies: 82
Views: 5602

Re: Proposal to represent a dynamic word cloud in Boglehead's main page

02nz wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:22 am Gettysburg Address?
BINGO!!
  • Does the word cloud increase your understanding of the document?
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Proposal to represent a dynamic word cloud in Boglehead's main page
Replies: 82
Views: 5602

Re: Proposal to represent a dynamic word cloud in Boglehead's main page

gks wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:07 am Bob,

The only big words that could possibly give away the document are "conceived" and "dedicated. Looking at the little words-perish, equal, secure, liberty, fathers-I'll bite. Declaration of Independence.


I'd hate to try reading that cloud document.

Greg
Getting Warm!
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Proposal to represent a dynamic word cloud in Boglehead's main page
Replies: 82
Views: 5602

Re: Proposal to represent a dynamic word cloud in Boglehead's main page

I went to this site and generated a word cloud from a well-known document.
  • From this word cloud only can you identify the document?
  • Does the word cloud increase your understanding of the document?
Image

- Bob.Beeman
by Bob.Beeman
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Separate email accounts
Replies: 37
Views: 4291

Re: Separate email accounts

Twenty years ago, I used my own domain name, and a different e-mail name for each company using their web address (e.g., amazon@mydomain.nl). It worked nicely to segregate and yo see where spam was coming from. Unfortunately, replies became a swamp. I still do this. All of the fake addresses are au...
by Bob.Beeman
Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)
Replies: 48
Views: 6421

Re: Everyone's a Day Trader Now (WSJ article)

I read what appears to be the same article here outside the pay wall. This is truly sad, as most of the "Day Traders" have no idea what they are getting into. But then I think gambling on-line is sad for the same reason. Normally poor grammar (except for mine :wink: ) is the sign of poor r...
by Bob.Beeman
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much Does a Car Salesperson Make on a New Car Sale?
Replies: 102
Views: 11644

Re: How Much Does a Car Salesperson Make on a New Car Sale?

Many years ago I read an article about buying cars. The one really good suggestion is one I have tried to use since: Aim to do your buying on a rainy Wednesday afternoon/evening near the end of the month. This puts some pressure on the salesman, as he may well be thinking more about making his quota...
by Bob.Beeman
Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: losing ability to ensure good computer hygiene- what to do
Replies: 49
Views: 3877

Re: losing ability to ensure good computer hygiene- what to do

One thing I'm not seeing on this thread is the hazard involving accidentally clicking on an email containing a malicious attached executable file such as a .exe, .zip, etc. That is how a lot of ransomware gets into computers and whole organizations. If you have your own domain you can set your mails...
by Bob.Beeman
Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blockchain: Disruption of Financial Intermediaries
Replies: 23
Views: 1859

Re: Blockchain: Disruption of Financial Intermediaries

There are are lot of applications that can benefit from the design pattern of an immutable distributed ledger especially if you now have an efficient and effective way to implement it with off the shelf solutions. Again, sounds like a relational database which started as an enabling technology that...
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do HD OTA Antennas work?
Replies: 60
Views: 5857

Re: How do HD OTA Antennas work?

The antenna that I put in my attic in 1994 is very discrete. No one can see it unless they somehow get inside my attic. There is nothing really different about a 2020 antenna for digital TV and a 1994 (or 1950) antenna for analog TV. The physics of the electromagnetic spectrum and radio waves has n...
by Bob.Beeman
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?
Replies: 81
Views: 5753

Re: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?

My wife and I moved to downstate Indiana from SE Florida last year. So now we are away from most of the light pollution and can actually see some interesting objects, and I am getting interested in skywatching with my old (1950s) 4.25 inch F10 Newtonian telescope. One of the interesting things that ...
by Bob.Beeman
Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AWD van or no AWD but with winter tires?
Replies: 89
Views: 4529

Re: AWD van or no AWD but with winter tires?

My brother is a police officer in the Chicago area. He gave me the following advice: ALL cars have 4-wheel braking, so AWD will not help you to stop. ALL cars have 2-wheel steering, so AWD will not help you to steer. AWD increases your ability to accelerate to higher speeds in circumstances where st...
by Bob.Beeman
Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Coincidence - or is somebody reading this forum?
Replies: 11
Views: 2829

Re: Coincidence - or is somebody reading this forum?

I think this is original:

Did you hear that Steven KIng is suing CNN, Fox, The New York Times, and the Washington Post?

He claims that most of their stories in the last few months have been plagiarized from his stories and novels.

-Bob Beeman.
by Bob.Beeman
Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it bad to be a "day trader"?
Replies: 51
Views: 3123

Re: Is it bad to be a "day trader"?

Make sure you have a forklift in good operating condition. You will need it when you file your tax returns for 2020. [;-)

Bob.Beeman
by Bob.Beeman
Sun May 31, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Non Fiction books for teenagers
Replies: 52
Views: 2755

Re: Non Fiction books for teenagers

For the technology fan, I heartily agree that any kind of Ham radio "getting started" book from www.arrl.org is good. Also, "Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feinman!" is a truly great biography of a truly great man. The story of how he got a reputation as a safecracker alone is worth t...
by Bob.Beeman
Sat May 23, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you change passwords on your investment accounts?
Replies: 42
Views: 2919

Re: How often do you change passwords on your investment accounts?

Never, unless I'm notified of a breach. NIST no longer recommends forced password rotations: https://pages.nist.gov/800-63-FAQ/#q-b05 The First rule bout Security is: one doesn't talk about Security! I was thinking to comment, but saw this first. Sounds like good advice. It's not good advice. For t...
by Bob.Beeman
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ponzi Scheme?
Replies: 215
Views: 18049

Re: Ponzi Scheme?

I once (1985 - 1988) had my children's college fund in Baptist Foundation of Arizona . Fortunately, I exited the organization soon enough that we didn't have any money clawed back, nor did we lose any money. Pure luck in my case. Nearly all of the people you meet at religious organizations are great...
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Most Actionable Way to Survive Coronavirus.
Replies: 4
Views: 1043

Re: The Most Actionable Way to Survive Coronavirus.

When people continue to sell a product that causes the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in just the US, that is what's terrible, not the act of pointing out the truth. Besides, I wanted to point to an actionable idea that would undoubtedly reduce many peoples' risk of death by Coronavirus. ...
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Most Actionable Way to Survive Coronavirus.
Replies: 4
Views: 1043

The Most Actionable Way to Survive Coronavirus.

Quit Using Tobacco Products!! Coronavirus causes lung problems and According to the CDC causes 480,000 US deaths each and every year. Since Coronavirus often kills via pneumonia, and since smoking aggravates lung diseases, the Coronavirus + smoking risk should be obvious. A possibly relevant fact i...
by Bob.Beeman
Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 42
Views: 6466

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

Let's hope that the SIPC DOESN'T pay off. That would reduce the supply of miscreants without harming any of us. - Bob Beeman Woof. Right up there with "I hope the market crashes so I can buy in cheap. F everyone else." Not really. People who engage in illegal use of margin are not "e...
by Bob.Beeman
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 42
Views: 6466

Re: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

OP. In what way does this matter to you? Are you in on the deal and trading on margin? Trading on margin is not for most of us here. OPM for sure, but there is no guarantee you you won’t lose it. Then where are you? Paying it back. Leverage is what got us into 2009 dire straits. I am a Boglehead, s...
by Bob.Beeman
Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?
Replies: 42
Views: 6466

Robinhood, Heading for a Trainwreck?

It appears that robinhood.com users can trade with large amounts of borrowed money, according to an article at techcrunch.com Robinhood has a glitch that's letting users borrow far more than they should I don't know whether techcrunch.com is a reliable site or not, and what they are encouraging cus...
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old were you when you got your first credit card?
Replies: 46
Views: 3893

Re: How old were you when you got your first credit card?

I got my first credit card in 1970, when I was about 25. I had been in the habit of coming home from work on Fridays and filling up at a local Amoco station, then cashing my paycheck at a bank another 4 miles down the road. Only this one time I filled the tank and then realized I didn't have enough ...
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it Safe to Get Your DNA Tested?
Replies: 86
Views: 13460

Is it Safe to Get Your DNA Tested?

A lot of organizations (Ancestry.com is only one) offer to test your DNA in order to understand your ancestral roots more completely. This sounds like a fun thing to do and it can be as easy as spitting in a bottle or swabbing the inside of your mouth with a Q-tip and sending the sample to them. The...
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: managing flight risk [travel by plane]
Replies: 30
Views: 2896

Re: managing flight risk

When the kids were small we got on the same flight all the time. I'm with your wife on this one. Remember, by taking 2 planes you double the risk that somebody in your family will "ruin their whole day". And If one flight crashed but you were on the flight that made it OK, would you feel g...
by Bob.Beeman
Sun Sep 18, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]
Replies: 48
Views: 11039

A Friend Asked Me - Ponzi or Not? [1st position commercial mortgage notes]

For the last year or two an organization calling itself " First Financial Tax Group " has been running banner ads in the Ft. Lauderdale (Florida) Sun-Sentinel. A friend of mine (age about 68) asked whether this was a "good deal" or not. I told him that this depends on what place ...
by Bob.Beeman
Sat Apr 16, 2016 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cell phone service - delay, echo and crosstalk
Replies: 17
Views: 2895

Re: cell phone service - delay, echo and crosstalk

Well Bob maybe some of Montana Girl problems can be "fixed". That is why I suggested she do some "experiments" to test and find out what end users she has problems with and where. She can certainly do that, but perhaps an equally interesting experiment would be to have her frien...
by Bob.Beeman
Sat Apr 16, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cell phone service - delay, echo and crosstalk
Replies: 17
Views: 2895

Re: cell phone service - delay, echo and crosstalk

Post by montanagirl » Wed Apr 13, 2016 3:41 pm It seems like every cell phone I've had since 2001 had this problem. The signal is always delayed a little so we talk over each other. Also echo, same thing I guess. A couple friends have gotten really testy about it, so I don't even like to make calls...
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 14032

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Test. Fund Name 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year ----------------------------------- ------- ------- ------ ------- ------- DFSVX (DFA small Value) -7.22 8.71 8.08 5.80 10.16 VISGX (Vanguard small growth) -2.90 9.89 9.28 7.72 8.73 VSCIX (Vangaurd small blend) -3.36 10.72 9.78 7.53 8.61 VTSMX (Va...
by Bob.Beeman
Mon Aug 10, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Browsers and Security - a question
Replies: 12
Views: 2313

Re: Browsers and Security - a question

I agree with Mudpuppy, but there are a few things you can do that might actually increase your security. Turn off Flash in your browser Krebs on Security- A Month Without Adobe Flash Player Turn off Java in your browser Java Patch Plugs 19 Security Holes Both of these are known sources of exploits. ...
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?
Replies: 198
Views: 26024

Re: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?

Engineers may indeed be different. Years ago a friend and I worked at the same company in a "research and design" organization. He drove an old beat-up station wagon with an interesting history. One day "Paul" noticed that his neighbor had his station wagon in the driveway with t...
by Bob.Beeman
Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fund Name is Not Enough
Replies: 24
Views: 4107

Re: The Fund Name is Not Enough

If I were going to sue the "Maryland Municipal Bond" fund (I'm not because I don't own any of it, and for the reasons enumerated above), it would be because the holdings don't add up to 100%.

- Bob Beeman.
by Bob.Beeman
Sat Jun 20, 2015 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Private Banking ever useful for simple Bogleheads
Replies: 35
Views: 9555

Re: Is Private Banking ever useful for simple Bogleheads

From "The Four Pillars of Investing" by William Bernstein P178 Chapter 7 "Misbehavior": The Country Club Syndrome: This is the peculiar affliction of the very wealthy. If you have your own jet, vacation in tony resorts, and send your children to the most exclusive private schools...