Search found 1024 matches

by Prokofiev
Mon May 25, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial advice for undertaking a PhD
Replies: 47
Views: 2876

Re: Financial advice for undertaking a PhD

I've heard (from PhDs) that you should never pay for a PhD. You should only get one that is "fully funded". For our kid, this meant the education was free and there was an additional stipend of 18-22K per year. The thinking behind "never pay for it"; is this. If you have to pay for it, it's a sign ...
by Prokofiev
Sun May 17, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5851

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Sequence of Returns is a well known issue for decumulation. There is a clear explanation on the wiki, showing what happens when one reverses sequence of returns in retirement: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/User:Leeraar/Sequence_of_return_risk SORR matters for accumulators too...especially near re...
by Prokofiev
Sun May 17, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5851

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

I believe if you check that it was a +53.99% in 1933. Regression to the mean after 4 bad years . . . . OOPS, mea culpa. 43% total return is the worst single year. But as you said, 4 bad years in a row. Yes, equity returns for 1928-1932 were terrible and that was one of the worst times for portfolio...
by Prokofiev
Sun May 17, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5851

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

My problem is with the hypothetical portfolios and any relation to reality. More realistic projections would serve the average retiree far better. You appear to be responding to the Jackson National graphs rather than my example. Do you have any critique of my example (4% withdrawal, 60/40 portfoli...
by Prokofiev
Sun May 17, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5851

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

My problem is with the hypothetical portfolios and any relation to reality. More realistic projections would serve the average retiree far better. You appear to be responding to the Jackson National graphs rather than my example. Do you have any critique of my example (4% withdrawal, 60/40 portfoli...
by Prokofiev
Sun May 17, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5851

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

My problem is with the hypothetical portfolios and any relation to reality. If I understand the graph, the B portfolio returns -12%, -21%,-14% and 0% over the first 4 years. You are spending 5% of the original portfolio each year and increasing spending an additional 3% for inflation. When in the re...
by Prokofiev
Mon May 11, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planning for Layoff: Communicate my status?
Replies: 22
Views: 2349

Re: Planning for Layoff: Communicate my status?

Having worked in the oil industry, I was involved in 10 lay-offs between 1984 and 2001. Every 18 months on average. The info as to who was cut was known almost in real-time. That included the various divisions within our building as well as other remote offices and other cities/states when it was co...
by Prokofiev
Sun May 10, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Technology Fund
Replies: 82
Views: 3407

Re: Vanguard Technology Fund

I have several sector type funds in my portfolio. PCRIX ( commodities futures) XME ( metals and mining) VDE ( Vanguard Energy ETF) I had been told to reduce large and small growth by academic research deeming it under-performing. I also have a small value tilt and 40% foreign equities. Even some for...
by Prokofiev
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quarantined Musician with Financial Questions
Replies: 24
Views: 1693

Re: Quarantined Musician with Financial Questions

So with these comments in mind my plan is to prioritize emergency savings, pay into the ROTH, and pay down student loans in that order. Thanks for commenting everyone! Really appreciate I would definitely prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I hate to be so negative, but I worry about the v...
by Prokofiev
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convert to Roth at Top Tax Bracket?
Replies: 35
Views: 2489

Re: Convert to Roth at Top Tax Bracket?

This is an EXCELLENT point for me. I have great health insurance (it's expensive but I don't expect it to go away before I hit Medicare). But I'm uninsurable for LTC. I don't like to think about it, but yeah, I could end up spending big dollars on Long Term Care and would be able (or have my tax-aw...
by Prokofiev
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convert to Roth at Top Tax Bracket?
Replies: 35
Views: 2489

Re: Convert to Roth at Top Tax Bracket?

I'm glad that I decided to post this. I ran the numbers with Turbotax and it appears that if I had made the conversion in 2019, exactly 36% of my TIRA would have been taxable. It's a big bite, but after reading all this, esp BSTEINER, I think I'm going to do it . . . There might be more good though...
by Prokofiev
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard trade policy
Replies: 1
Views: 264

Re: Vanguard trade policy

That is for mutual funds only. Stocks and ETFs are unlimited.
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water line replacement - is HOA responsible?
Replies: 24
Views: 1497

Re: Water line replacement - is HOA responsible?

I would think that the HOA would have no responsibility to pay for repairs that a homeowner incurred without consulting with the HOA ahead of time. +1 There was no reason for them not to have called before the work was done. In a 16 unit HOA she could have just walked over to one of the board membe...
by Prokofiev
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else increasing their equity allocation?
Replies: 28
Views: 2951

Re: Anyone else increasing their equity allocation?

I am trying to increase my stock %.

But every time I buy more, the market drops.

I went from 35% to 33%.

Time to up my buying to at least keep up
by Prokofiev
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2325

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

How do we know when the downturn is over? In the moment, you can't. The research is based on historical data. Here is my historical research. https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w5XLP8TQg2g/UviMD6FBbUI/AAAAAAAAPwk/vQijCNjNgj8/s1600/140210+US+-+Stock+Prices+since+1789.png Notice all the dips? Notice what hap...
by Prokofiev
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Personal look investment question
Replies: 3
Views: 208

Re: Personal look investment question

Finally we are getting down to important issues! Have you tried moustache wax? It comes in several colors and usually looks good provided you like a tight, controlled look. I have dark brown hair, but lots of white in my moustache and goatee. I use Just for Men. Yes, it can stain your skin, but that...
by Prokofiev
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2325

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

While I agree it is a good video, I'm not so sure about the research that he talks about. After a large market decline of 50% (!) or more, the data show a large rebound effect. But isn't that obvious? If we define the event as being "over" at the market bottom, it is obvious that the market CANNOT g...
by Prokofiev
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22813

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

If I was a full time day trader and portfolio manager, and had the time to analyze the stock markets and news, I most certainly would've taken proper action to mitigate losses. I have no doubt about this . I have a stressful job, so I don't have the time and energy to watch markets It's not what we...
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard potential issue with filled price
Replies: 20
Views: 1155

Re: Vanguard potential issue with filled price

Looks like you got a bargain on those 3 shares! If your limit price on a buy order was above the opening price, what are you complaining about? You were willing to pay up to $130 and it opened below that and it was filled. Go back to the day in question and plot the prices for the ETF and you can se...
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My bonehead move may make you feel better about your situation
Replies: 16
Views: 3220

Re: My bonehead move may make you feel better about your situation

TLHing ETFs in a volatile market is difficult. Best to wait till the dust has cleared, but that may take awhile based on the past 10 trading days. I put in limit orders to sell and buy the replacement ETF at prices way above and below the current prices, just to get the orders started. Then I change...
by Prokofiev
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Morningstar X-Ray Tool - How To Show Cash?
Replies: 7
Views: 309

Re: Morningstar X-Ray Tool - How To Show Cash?

Edit your portfolio
Click the Cash tab
Enter number

You can call it cash or CDs or whatever.
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Negative--Maximum Pessimism
Replies: 55
Views: 2985

Re: TIPS Yield Negative--Maximum Pessimism

Of course today TIPS are crashing. You wanted positive real yields? They're back . . . Sweet! I'm still a buyer for more Jan 2020 ten years. Would you mind sharing what link you use to track intra-day TIPS prices? Thanks!! 8-) ETA: is this it? https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips Found it in ...
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Negative--Maximum Pessimism
Replies: 55
Views: 2985

Re: TIPS Yield Negative--Maximum Pessimism

Of course today TIPS are crashing. You wanted positive real yields? They're back . . .
by Prokofiev
Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long TIPS yields wrong? Erroneous data wk of 3/2/20 finally corrected
Replies: 73
Views: 4052

Re: Long TIPS yields jump again at close (THU 3/5)

Just checked at VG. All TIPS I can see are offered on the secondary market. Are you sure you guys are checking correctly? Spread seems slightly high, but all are shown with negative real yields. Is someone still trying to buy 20 and 30yr TIPS at large positive yields?? That is a typo . . . For those...
by Prokofiev
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Partial Roth conversion
Replies: 11
Views: 705

Re: Partial Roth conversion

Mlm wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:22 pm
celia wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:21 pm

You don’t even have to sell and re-purchase in Roth if you transfer shares in-kind. However, at Vanguard, that can only be done by mailing in a form.
I did Roth conversions last year and again a few days ago online at Vanguard.
And you can transfer in-kind via the VG website as well
by Prokofiev
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long TIPS yields wrong? Erroneous data wk of 3/2/20 finally corrected
Replies: 73
Views: 4052

Re: Long TIPS yield jumped at close today (Tue 3/3)

Most TIPS are even more negative this morning. Shows what I know. Left a few thousand on the table, but over-all a nice return from Nov-Dec 2018 to now. Will get interested again when the 30yr gets over 1%. Will that happen? Who knows, but look at the rate history of the 30yr and 10yr TIPS constant ...
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long TIPS yields wrong? Erroneous data wk of 3/2/20 finally corrected
Replies: 73
Views: 4052

Re: Long TIPS yield jumped at close today (Tue 3/3)

I sold long TIPS today, and can report they were up big. Did they crash in the last minutes? I doubt that. Typo on one website. By the principle of "least astonishment" I would believe the WSJ. Congrats on the sale! And yes, I don't doubt the WSJ or the LTPZ numbers. Congrats ONLY if I can get back...
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long TIPS yields wrong? Erroneous data wk of 3/2/20 finally corrected
Replies: 73
Views: 4052

Re: Long TIPS yield jumped at close today (Tue 3/3)

I sold long TIPS today, and can report they were up big. Did they crash in the last minutes?

I doubt that. Typo on one website. By the principle of "least astonishment" I would believe the WSJ.
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long TIPS yields wrong? Erroneous data wk of 3/2/20 finally corrected
Replies: 73
Views: 4052

Re: Long TIPS yield jumped at close today (Tue 3/3)

Did you check my link? It is not what you posted above and shows the 2/2050 TIP at a small
negative yield. Isn't that your question?
by Prokofiev
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long TIPS yields wrong? Erroneous data wk of 3/2/20 finally corrected
Replies: 73
Views: 4052

Re: Long TIPS yield jumped at close today (Tue 3/3)

That number does not look right.

Here are the WSJ numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds/tips

30 years and negative real return! Interesting times . . .
by Prokofiev
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 614
Views: 32445

Re: What are you listening to now

Here is an English woman doing a karaoke cover (aren't they all?) from her home, singing into her laptop.

What do you think?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=So ... ORM=VDRVRV
by Prokofiev
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PSA : Turbotax cannot import vanguard brokerage 1099 ?
Replies: 25
Views: 2491

Re: PSA : Turbotax cannot import vanguard brokerage 1099 ?

My taxable account info is still not available on the VG website. Only IRA and Roth. That is true for all 3 different accounts (people) I handle. Last year my info was dated Feb 16, so maybe it will arrive in the next several days. Trying to import a document that doesn't yet exist is not going to w...
by Prokofiev
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Short week in New Orleans
Replies: 24
Views: 1496

Re: Short week in New Orleans

BUT, we went a couple weeks after Mardi Gras ended and I see you are going around the same time frame. The entire French Quarter area reeked of urine, especially when you neared any place that had a planter on the sidewalk. If I had it to do over again, I would wait for a month or so (and a few goo...
by Prokofiev
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Short week in New Orleans
Replies: 24
Views: 1496

Re: Short week in New Orleans

First off, I have never heard of St James st, so I know this can't be in the Garden District. You are staying what was once called St Thomas - a well-known housing project. They have relabeled it "Lower" Garden District after removing the projects and building subsidized condo and housing units. No...
by Prokofiev
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Short week in New Orleans
Replies: 24
Views: 1496

Re: Short week in New Orleans

First off, I have never heard of St James st, so I know this can't be in the Garden District. You are staying in what was once called St Thomas - a well-known housing project. They have relabeled it "Lower" Garden District after removing the projects and building subsidized condo and housing units....
by Prokofiev
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Short week in New Orleans
Replies: 24
Views: 1496

Re: Short week in New Orleans

Duplicate. See below
by Prokofiev
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 137
Views: 10021

Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

It was interesting that he suggested more active timing in a retiree's portfolio. I don't know that he's ever actually suggested timing to anyone. He's repeatedly said that it's not for 99% of investors and only mentioned that he uses it with half of his own portfolio, but his son-in-law actually e...
by Prokofiev
Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!
Replies: 116
Views: 10828

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

For now, it is going into VSCSX . Eventually, it will probably go into the stocks, after Roth Conversions. Did you buy these to hedge a specific liability? Maybe social security bridge? By moving to stocks you are effectively changing your asset allocation. I recall you into being into tips for a q...
by Prokofiev
Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not going on the last leg of the flight
Replies: 32
Views: 3444

Re: Not going on the last leg of the flight

Read the contract. Often, they reserve the right to charge you the difference and/or cancel your frequent flyer miles - either for the trip or to block you from the program entirely. Flyertalk forums note: 1) consequences are unlikely if this is a one off 2) it is usually a breach of contract and t...
by Prokofiev
Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!
Replies: 116
Views: 10828

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

So you went from a 2.2% nominal yield in US treasuries to a 2.1% nominal yield on corporate debt. Feel better now? The nominal 5-year Treasury has yield 1.47%. So that give implied expected inflation of 1.59%. So VSTSX has implied real yield of 0.51% I will point out that the CPI-inflation target i...
by Prokofiev
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!
Replies: 116
Views: 10828

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

grayfox wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:38 pm
For now, it is going into VSCSX. Eventually, it will probably go into the stocks, after Roth Conversions.
So you went from a 2.2% nominal yield in US treasuries to a 2.1% nominal yield on corporate debt.

Feel better now?
by Prokofiev
Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Not allowed to board American Airlines flight - Forced to buy second ticket for same flight - Help requested [UPDATED]
Replies: 125
Views: 16157

Re: Not allowed to board American Airlines flight - Forced to buy second ticket for same flight - Help requested

Could you have had your AA account frozen or locked by American? Since this ticket was using miles, you may have violated the terms of the AAdvantage program. Look up or Google "American account lock-out" "Background If you’re reading this, you’re probably already aware that the American Airlines AA...
by Prokofiev
Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling house without realtor - cash offer
Replies: 30
Views: 3403

Re: Selling house without realtor - cash offer

Most real estate rules are at the state level so vary widely. When we signed an offer sheet 3 years ago, the requirement was that all known defects be revealed and listed by the owner. We offered 91% of listing and they countered with 93% which we agreed to. However, the house inspection came up wit...
by Prokofiev
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All into VITAX?
Replies: 14
Views: 1439

Re: All into VITAX?

tchung9292 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:17 am


Also, by looking at 2008 returns, VITAX showed -43.36% but a year later, fund recovered from the loss in 2008 and even made further to +61.03%.

Am I missing out something here?
Losing 43+% one year and then gaining 61% the next year is not making money . . .
by Prokofiev
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocate to avoid State Taxes on Long Term Capital Gains?
Replies: 19
Views: 1808

Re: Relocate to avoid State Taxes on Long Term Capital Gains?

What are your concerns? Does keeping the house (and renting it out for 20+ years in case I want to return) mean I'm still a Californian at tax time? No. If you establish residence in a different state, you will pay state taxes on portfolio income to the state in which you live. Of course you will n...
by Prokofiev
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard PAS Recommendation?
Replies: 47
Views: 3028

Re: Vanguard PAS Recommendation?

Hi. Anyone here use Vanguard Advisory Services or can recommend them? Blue, The vast majority of people posting here are DIY advocates. Me too. So most of the responses here will be negative. But assuming you NEED an advisor, PAS is a very reasonable alternative. If (since) you are still a good way...
by Prokofiev
Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AAU basketball, college scholarships and career options/choices
Replies: 59
Views: 2571

Re: AAU basketball, college scholarships and career options/choices

Once I heard a mom talking about volleyball. she said something like if kid plays on a high school team that's ranked 50th or higher in California, then the kid might have a good chance to get a scholarship. If your child is a boy, forget about volleyball scholarships. Limited to 4.5 per college an...
by Prokofiev
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicago 'special occasion' but not 'expense account' restaurant recommendations?
Replies: 54
Views: 3623

Re: Chicago 'special occasion' but not 'expense account' restaurant recommendations?

I eagerly scrutinized the Topolobampo tasting menu . . . I love Rick Bayless food. Not sure what the secret is (salt + oil?) but it is delicious. Don't be afraid of Topolobampo. It is excellent and much better than sitting on the Frontera Grill side (they are the same place). But if you go to Macy'...
by Prokofiev
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Salad shooter recommendation
Replies: 16
Views: 1625

Re: Salad shooter recommendation

And you make your salad 2-3 days or more in advance? Doesn't sound good . . .
by Prokofiev
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to Collect SS
Replies: 55
Views: 3159

Re: When to Collect SS

Interesting discussion. SS timing is so individual. I always thought I would wait until 70-----conventional wisdom and all that. We don't need the money. All the usual arguments. Then I sat down with an independent SS expert and we looked at EVERYTHING (assets and income timing, taxes, spouse's SS,...