Search found 118 matches

by Kevin K
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7626

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

If I'm missing something obvious here (it wouldn't be the first time) I apologize, but when I read the NYT article my first thought was "isn't this a strong argument for sticking with market-cap weighted funds like Total Stock Market instead of tilting to small and value?"
by Kevin K
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund portolio article on diversification
Replies: 1
Views: 346

Re: 3 fund portolio article on diversification

A good article and...my first thought was how much better off an investor would have been in terms of both CAGR and downside to just be 100% in Wellesley over the time period used (and many others).
by Kevin K
Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 210
Views: 36393

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

Like so many others here I'm extremely grateful for Taylor's enormous contributions to both this board and to previous Bogleheads books. I bought this new offering and while I concur that it's an ideal gift for new investors I found myself feeling like my purchase was basically just a donation to a ...
by Kevin K
Sun Jun 03, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements on demographics and investing
Replies: 8
Views: 2311

Jonathan Clements on demographics and investing

I know there are many Clements fans here and thought his discussion of relative age and projected productivity in the developed world vs. emerging markets in his new newsletter was typically clear and concise. Towards the end of the post there are links to a paper and data as well as a six-minute vi...
by Kevin K
Thu May 10, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics

Thank-you alex_686, stlutz and Nate79 for the education. I apologize for posting the Evanson piece. I simply didn't know enough about ETF structures to question his claims. I always come to this forum to learn and usually learn far more than I ever thought possible. Sorry to have wasted your time!
by Kevin K
Wed May 09, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics

Thanks to all and especially to you nisiprius for the wise perspective. Fortunately everything I'm looking at in ETF's are large "plain vanilla" total U.S/total International ones from Vanguard so no issues there. I have to wonder if part of the negativity from Evanson isn't coming from the fact tha...
by Kevin K
Wed May 09, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics

ETF's are created from pledged (promised) shares by authorized participants to ETF fund managers. ETF shareholders own a pledged asset, not a fractional share of an asset as is the case with open-ended mutual funds. This is false. ETFs and mutual funds own the underlying shares exactly the same way...
by Kevin K
Wed May 09, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

Re: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics

Thanks for the feedback. The quote is only as long as it had to be to reflect their thoughts on the topic. I did take your suggestion though and added a link to the full article (which is on the public Evanson Asset site). The ETF section starts about halfway through. I didn't post the link initiall...
by Kevin K
Wed May 09, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics
Replies: 21
Views: 1948

ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics

I read the excellent Boglehead's Wiki post on ETF's but didn't find the concerns below addressed. If I'm reading things correctly it sounds like Vanguard's unique structure in which their ETF's are considered share classes of their counterpart mutual funds provide protection against some of these is...
by Kevin K
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talking about Bond Investing - For Safety, not Yield
Replies: 18
Views: 2222

Re: Talking about Bond Investing - For Safety, not Yield

Lots of thoughtful replies to the OP's question but all of them seem to me to reflect long-term bond market history rather than the Fed-induced ultra low interest rate environment we've been in since the '08 crisis. Historically yes 5 year Treasuries have pretty much been the "sweet spot" for risk:r...
by Kevin K
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15353

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

[/quote] Thank you T for putting this all in perspective. So although LT bonds actually have been the ideal diversifier for the last 30 years or so, it looks like ST bonds are much safer now that rates appear to be bottoming out, perhaps even rising, after their slow 30-yr decline. Now, if rates end...
by Kevin K
Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15353

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

Just finished reading the book on the basis of both this thread and nothing but excellent previous experience with Mr. Swedroe's writing (including the first edition of this book). I think the authors provide a great service by explaining these alternative investments about so clearly and concisely....
by Kevin K
Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series
Replies: 14
Views: 2505

Re: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series

Personally I think "If you can" cannot be beat as an introduction to investing. https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf Short and simple. If you want to go more complicated than that I wouldn't turn to Jlcollinsnh. Though I see he is pretty popular and some appreciate his style of humor. I find his i...
by Kevin K
Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series
Replies: 14
Views: 2505

Re: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series

i've given his "Simple Path to Wealth" to two nieces just beginning their working lives because its brevity and clarity should help them get onto the right path for saving and investing. That said, his 100% equity or 90:10 allocation makes all the sense in the world during the early decades of the a...
by Kevin K
Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds During Market Panics
Replies: 22
Views: 2040

Re: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds During Market Panics

P.S. I am suspicious of possible self-interest on Evanson Asset Management's part, since 1) if I am reading their website correctly, Evanson Asset Management is an advisory firm and their FAQ suggests that they are closely tied with Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), and 2) DFA does not offer their p...
by Kevin K
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds During Market Panics
Replies: 22
Views: 2040

ETF's vs. Mutual Funds During Market Panics

I've read the long Wiki here on the ETF vs. Mutual Fund topic and at least some of the other threads but haven't seen the topic of divergent performance between the two investment types addressed in detail (and if I missed a thread on this very issue, which is certainly possible, I apologize). The q...
by Kevin K
Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19830

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Is cash an investment? IMO, it is not. The goal of an “investment” is achieve a real rate of return over time. Cash investments do not do this, and are not priced to do it. Cash is (or should) be risk free, and that should mean it keeps up with inflation before tax. This doesn’t always happen becau...
by Kevin K
Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubbles Everywhere
Replies: 41
Views: 7162

Re: Bubbles Everywhere

As for bonds, my conclusion after reading his article is that CD's make a whole lot more sense than bond funds in this environment if my main reason for holding bonds is to offset the risks I take on the equity side. Please share more of your reasoning about this. I've been a big proponent of direc...
by Kevin K
Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubbles Everywhere
Replies: 41
Views: 7162

Re: Bubbles Everywhere

Yes it's a pretty slick web site and yes Todd has things to sell, but I think the analysis is sound and in his defense he does offer a smattering of things defensive investors might look into at the end of the article: “Deep diversification” (where you diversify by strategy and source of return, not...
by Kevin K
Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubbles Everywhere
Replies: 41
Views: 7162

Bubbles Everywhere

Here's a quite provocative new piece by Todd Tresidder that not only paints a pretty scary picture of valuations in both equities and bonds but also gets to the root of the appeal of Bitcoin better than anything else I've read: https://financialmentor.com/investment-advice/risk-management-plan/bubbl...
by Kevin K
Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1536

The Ulcer Index

There's already a long thread here on "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web" whose most recent post features Tyler's latest but I thought it was of such interest that it deserved its own. It seems to me that this new post makes a pretty compelling case for ditching standard deviation and replacing ...
by Kevin K
Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?
Replies: 56
Views: 9018

Re: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?

Thanks very much CRTR for resurrecting this old thread with such a fascinating and useful piece of work!
by Kevin K
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 43
Views: 7003

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

I've also looked at the performance of the GB and other portfolios that have some gold from 1978 to current, avoiding the period you refer to. The outcome doesn't change substantially. When using Portfolio Charts (or Portfolio Visualizer) to backtest allocations using gold I always start in 1975 to...
by Kevin K
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 117
Views: 15070

Re: Does anyone own gold?

Does anyone own gold, and why? Evanson, a passive investment management company in NorthEran California has a long and highly positive article on gold, see.. https://www.evansonasset.com/64.htm Yes, 5% in my case in the form of IAU though I would much prefer to own physical gold if my circumstances...
by Kevin K
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 43
Views: 7003

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

I think the tools on Portfolio Charts are a whole lot more useful than looking at the most recent 10 years on MarketWatch, but if we're going to play that game let's just go with 100% Wellesley which handily beats all of these portfolios (6.66% return, #1 ranking) with far lower SD and many decades ...
by Kevin K
Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 43
Views: 7003

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

[/quote] Have you seen the Golden Butterfly portfolio? It's remarkable. I've never seen a portfolio (especially one with a 39 year history) that has a higher return than it's standard deviation. Just look at the heat map. https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/[/quote] Not only the G...
by Kevin K
Mon Feb 20, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 43
Views: 7003

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

[/quote] I too was attracted to these portfolios with many asset classes not long ago. But now I've seen that you can equate or even improve their performance (higher returns and/or lower volatility) with fewer asset classes. For retirees, I think that some modified version of the Larry Portfolio ma...
by Kevin K
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 43
Views: 7003

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

Bob Clyatt, author of the excellent "Work Less, Live More" retirement guide, has a slightly simpler 8 ETF portfolio (all but one are Vanguard) he calls the Sandwich that has performed similarly to Merriman's and seems a bit easier to implement: http://www.workless-livemore.com/rational-investing-por...
by Kevin K
Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Klargman thoughts on Trump and to a lesser extent, mutual funds and ETFs
Replies: 3
Views: 1219

Re: Klargman thoughts on Trump and to a lesser extent, mutual funds and ETFs

It's Klarman, not Klargman and there's a more detailed article in yesterday's New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/06/business/dealbook/sorkin-seth-klarman-trump-investors.html?hpw&rref=business&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=0 Let...
by Kevin K
Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 16852

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Wise thoughts sir and I agree with you completely. Here's an interesting variant of the Larry Portfolio that dials the bonds back to a still substantial 60%, changes the equities a bit and adds a small slice of gold (sorry to bring up THAT particular four letter word here but its usefulness in modes...
by Kevin K
Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 16852

Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

I thought I'd share this new post from Tyler over at Portfolio Charts for those who don't subscribe to his updates: https://portfoliocharts.com/2017/02/03/black-swans-and-the-larry-portfolio/ I continue to find new things to appreciate and admire about this site. The ability to look at how it would ...
by Kevin K
Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 193
Views: 58927

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Getting back to the OP's observation about Wellesley's phenomenal track record over the decades, I'll share this response to a similar question I asked about the fund on another forum last year. IMHO it does the best job I've seen of speaking to why Wellesley has outperformed not only other conserva...
by Kevin K
Tue Nov 29, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio for retirement
Replies: 79
Views: 13950

Re: Three fund portfolio for retirement

I can't help but wonder if Vanguard will eventually revise the composition of their Target Date Retirement and Income funds to reflect this approach. I sure hope so, as it seems to me the logic behind this approach is compelling. I guess the only options open to someone who doesn't want to pay the 1...
by Kevin K
Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22534

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

What gold is "good" for and why there are far better options than "just stick with the balanced index fund" can be ascertained by comparing the GB, PP and other such allocations including the 60/10/10/10/10 variant of the Larry Portfolio to this classic Boglehead one: https://portfoliocharts.com/por...
by Kevin K
Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22534

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

I think the backtesting "snapshot" Portfolio Charts provide is useful, but I don't see any point in the endless discussions one sees about backtesting not being useful owing to data only going back to x date. What's usually left out of those discussions/arguments is that most of the investable asset...
by Kevin K
Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22534

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The leeriness about gold and long-term treasuries is of course completely understandable - and something I share! Here's an interation of not the PP but rather Larry Swedroe's "Larry" portfolio that a knowledgeable poster over on the PP forums uses. It's essentially Larry's most recent iteration (in...
by Kevin K
Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 22534

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

I suggest poking around the Portfolio Charts site and looking not just at the PP and GB but all of the other portfolios that have delivered optimal risk:reward numbers over any holding period you care to test. Most of them include at least a 10% allocation to gold, but there are plenty of decent exc...
by Kevin K
Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: glide path vs. fixed asset allocation [POLL]
Replies: 50
Views: 5811

Re: glide path vs. fixed asset allocation [POLL]

Interesting discussion. Two options not discussed in any detail so far: 1. A true liability-matching portfolio such as DFA is now offering with its target date retirement and income funds. There's a good thread on these funds here already, with luminaries such as Bill Bernstein chiming in. Essential...
by Kevin K
Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 24075

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Perhaps he'll see fit to weigh in on this topic here, but Tyler from the excellent Portfolio Charts website posted really good comment on Mr. Swedroe's article over on the Permanent Portfolio forums: http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8615#p152423 In particular I'd direct ...
by Kevin K
Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 267
Views: 26263

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

To the OP: Tyler over at Portfolio Charts wrote this article specifically in response to your original question. Portfolio Charts is an amazing tool and IMHO this answers your question in great depth and in the process shows just how unnecessary it is to take huge risks in the accumulation phase and...
by Kevin K
Sun Jul 24, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]
Replies: 19
Views: 2300

Re: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]

Also a lot better strategy than what the OP is proposing are approaches like the Permanent Portfolio and its Golden Butterfly iteration: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/ These use a "barbell" of half 30 year Treasuries, half short-term Treasuries for the bond allocation. Contr...
by Kevin K
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 267
Views: 26263

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

To the OP I'd recommend setting aside a chunk of time to use the calculators (and read the articles) on this site: https://portfoliocharts.com/calculators/ If you spend some time looking at the performance of the sample portfolios on the site (100% Total Stock and the classic Bogleheads 60:40 and Th...
by Kevin K
Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30% Wellesley combined with 3 Fund Portfolio advice
Replies: 6
Views: 1369

Re: 30% Wellesley combined with 3 Fund Portfolio advice

Thanks everyone for your thoughtful responses. My available assets are about 40% in an IRA and the rest in a taxable account, and the Wellesley is all within the IRA. My tax bracket is generally 10%, spiking to 15% some years due to capital gains from sale of funds or occasional consulting work inco...
by Kevin K
Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30% Wellesley combined with 3 Fund Portfolio advice
Replies: 6
Views: 1369

30% Wellesley combined with 3 Fund Portfolio advice

As risk-averse early retirees we have ~30% of our next egg in Wellesley and the rest in a slightly modified version of the 3 Fund portfolio. Our desired overall allocation across all accounts is 40:60 stocks:bonds. The equity part is pretty easy: 30% Total International and 70% Total U.S. Stock gets...
by Kevin K
Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?
Replies: 29
Views: 4752

Re: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?

I'm taking Pfau with an ever-larger grain of salt these days, due not only to his vested interests in selling annuities and getting folks into the FA world, but also to the absurdly high costs embedded in both such options. John Greaney, a Boglehead if ever there was one, does a great job of skeweri...
by Kevin K
Mon Jul 11, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conservative 3 Fund vs. Wellesley in Retirement
Replies: 2
Views: 563

Conservative 3 Fund vs. Wellesley in Retirement

I've read all the earlier threads on Wellesley I could find, as well as the long and wonderful (and ongoing) one on the 3 Fund approach. I'm enough of a Boglehead by nature and training to have a prejudice in favor of the broadest possible index funds and a considerable resistance to active manageme...
by Kevin K
Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IT Treasury vs. Total Bond in Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 649

oops!

Whakamole wrote:
Kevin K wrote:the interest on Treasuries not being subject to Federal Taxes
Not true. Treasuries are not subject to state and local tax, but you still pay Federal tax.
Right you are! Thanks for correcting my mistake.
by Kevin K
Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IT Treasury vs. Total Bond in Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 649

IT Treasury vs. Total Bond in Three Fund Portfolio

Thanks to much wise counsel on this board I've basically adopted the three fund portfolio, but with Vanguard's Intermediate Term Treasury fund filling in for the Total Bond fund. As a fan of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio and having lived through the '08 crash I originally chose the treasuries s...
by Kevin K
Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore
Replies: 51
Views: 8184

Re: 60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore

"Let’s stop and ask an obvious question: If it’s good for trustees of Harvard, would it not also be good for you?" How about because I don't have the dedicated staff to trade on a daily basis my individualized allocation to alternative investments, the ability to do so tax free, huge source of dona...
by Kevin K
Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore
Replies: 51
Views: 8184

60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore

I looked for discussion of this article here and didn't see anything; my apologies if I missed it. The author has a piece in Forbes that's getting a lot of media play, but this longer version on his own site is more detailed: http://charlessizemore.com/60-40-is-dead/ Obviously the comments about equ...