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by matjen
Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:56 am
matjen wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:36 am
... and that you can prattle on about then that is why you buy it.
Seems to me you don’t actually have to buy one to prattle on about it. :shock: :D :twisted:
Guilty! Well done. 😃
by matjen
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

DanMahowny and matjen have so much time on their hands to comment on posts that are never an answer to the topic "To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3" But then... You have mentioned that around 50 times in this thread. No one needs to read that again and again. Let those that have the reserv...
by matjen
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

DanMahowny and matjen have so much time on their hands to comment on posts that are never an answer to the topic "To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3" Do not order or take delivery of a Model 3 is my answer. Thought it was pretty clear but just in case. Do not take delivery of a Model 3 beca...
by matjen
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

I have a simple rule regarding automobile purchases. 1) Never buy a car that was manufactured in a tent. This isn't just a tent, it's a Tesla tent. The best most advanced tent. The tent that big oil and Detroit was afraid to build and doesn't want you to see. http://i64.tinypic.com/bdmyo9.jpg Oh, i...
by matjen
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

It appears to me Tesla has gotten over the hump. They are here for the long haul. Strongly disagree. They are literally finishing cars in a tent (I’m sure the quality control will be top notch) and just put up Fremont as collateral and Model 3 production numbers continue to be horrid. They could st...
by matjen
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Edit: I would not worry about Tesla’s survival. The manufacturing of the 3 is not perfect but this car is a winner. Worst case scenario, another car company takes them out (if their valuation falls for some reason). Their lead in this space is too far for this company to fail in such a way that own...
by matjen
Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

The video in this BBC article is pretty chilling. The Tesla driver had perhaps 2 seconds time to adjust to AutoPilot failure. This is a common type of occurrence it seems to me. I have BMW's traffic jam assist technology in one of my cars and do use it fairly frequently in slow moving traffic condit...
by matjen
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Yep. I shorted at $365. Considering another 100 share short. No profits, crappy balance sheet, CEO is a snake oil salesman. Looks like Musk is pulling out all the stops to show some sort of profit by Q3. Agree with you. Won’t matter in the long run. A growth company doesn’t lay off 9% of its work f...
by matjen
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Glad my $300 short position on TSLA is imaginary. Tesla on fire this week. :shock:
by matjen
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3417

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

@nisi: fair enough, but in context I did say "In this respect" -- i.e. with respect to Sauter's presentation. If one takes your conclusion that they are wholly the same then Sauter's presentation is internally-inconsistent. I think something more subtle is afoot than can be demonstrated by linking ...
by matjen
Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 747

Re: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

My portfolio is just a few percent smaller due to choosing the wrong decade to put 10% into a well know commodities fund. I mistakenly held on much longer than those who recommended them back then, and are now recommending them again. Just in case anyone thinks that the AQR research is driven by th...
by matjen
Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 747

Re: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

I admit I didn't read the article. When I see a suggestion or even a hint of the secret sauce for commodity investing, my curiosity disappears. I am not objective on this matter. I do believe that it is difficult for someone, as a writer once put it, to see something when his livelihood depends on ...
by matjen
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 747

Re: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

Fair point Nedsaid and something I kind of assumed to be true. But reading the paper and actually another linked review to Wes Gray’s overview has given me more to think about. Apparently trading volume weighted compared to equal weighted construction makes an enormous difference because of Oil gett...
by matjen
Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 747

Re: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

How odd that a firm that markets commodity exposure thinks its attractive. Long term returns of commodities cluster around zero real. Increased diversification and lower portfolio volatility come at a price, no free lunch. AlphaArchitect suggests they have the secret sauce for Sharpe ratio success ...
by matjen
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 747

AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

A nice article and paper reinforcing some of Larry Swedroe's points regarding commodities. https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/06/11/commodities-long-run/ YES- From an asset allocation perspectives commodities can add value to a traditional stocks/bonds portfolio: they are a good diversifier and perform...
by matjen
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - A Framework for Analyzing Multifactor Funds
Replies: 0
Views: 139

Morningstar - A Framework for Analyzing Multifactor Funds

Morningstar has just come out with a paper on Multifactor Funds along with some recommendations. Per usual, AQR and DFA are represented but there are also some funds that anyone can purchase that may also be of interest. For instance, DEUS Xtrackers Russell 1000 Comprehensive Factor ETF at 17 bps. L...
by matjen
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

The Tesla will have better range and be more desirable than the Bolt, so after 3 years the Tesla should be worth more. This, of course, assumes that Tesla exists in anything approximating its current form or greater in 3 years. Also assumes the Model 3 is made to a somewhat high level of quality as...
by matjen
Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Tesla must fix 'flaws' in Autopilot after fatal crash: U.S. consumer group https://www.autoblog.com/amp/2018/06/08/tesla-flaws-autopilot-fatal-crash/?__twitter_impression=true David Friedman, director of Cars and Product Policy and Analysis for Consumers Union, the advocacy arm of Consumer Reports,...
by matjen
Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

Here is a preliminary NTSB report on a Tesla on Autopilot running into the sharp end of a median. Not just running into it but accelerating into it. https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/HWY18FH011-preliminary.aspx A preliminary review of the recorded performance data showed the ...
by matjen
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

The point is not whether or not it's a fair comparison. The point is that you're drawing a conclusion based on a few news articles rather than on any kind of statistical analysis of the safety of driving with autopilot vs. without it. What doesn't get reported in the news are the potentially large ...
by matjen
Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3276

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Thanks for the reminder on these topics Larry.
by matjen
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?
Replies: 45
Views: 2896

Re: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?

It's definitely worth considering leasing over buying. The technology is moving very fast (for a car technology). 100% agree (though I did buy my used BMW i3 after a 60% depreciation or so). Elon Musk just answered the leasing question negatively via Twitter of course. Leasing negatively effects Te...
by matjen
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?
Replies: 45
Views: 2896

Re: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?

I believe the next year or so will be make or break for Tesla, and as goes Tesla, goes EV development by other manufacturers. Nah. Musk deserves all the credit in the world for basically dragging the (urban) consumer's taste toward electric and showing there is demand but the other manufacturers ar...
by matjen
Fri Jun 01, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3276

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

I looked at reinsurance funds a few years ago. It's interesting, but I didn't buy. First, the fund fees are too high. Second, there are a lot of dollars chasing a few deals so pricimg is skewed toward overpricing (underpricing risk). Rick Ferri Rick's second point is the one that most concerns me s...
by matjen
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11650

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

... I'm not paying up for DFA because of any super secret sauce but mostly because I can get a balanced portfolio with the tilts handled by them rather than me. Paying for the simplicity . They pretty much were the only place to offer this but that is changing. "Paying for the simplicity" in this c...
by matjen
Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11650

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

matjen: There is no "Taylor Swedroe Portfolio." I do not recommend a tilted portfolio and I think it is usually unnecessary to pay a DFA advisor for a simple Three-Fund Portfolio. Best wishes. Taylor I have added a disclaimer to ensure no one thinks you recommend it or the concept. I assure you the...
by matjen
Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11650

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

You could replace your domestic DFA funds with equal parts VLUE & VIOV at half the cost and no advisor fees/hassle. Add in PDN to cover the international exposure plus whatever bonds you need. You can use some of the hundreds of dollars you save every year in fees to buy me a beer. Without looking ...
by matjen
Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors From Scratch
Replies: 11
Views: 892

Factors From Scratch

I haven't read this yet but I figured the factor junkies on the board would enjoy it. Factors from Scratch: A look back, and forward, at how, when, and why factors work By Jesse Livermore, Chris Meredith, CFA, and Patrick O’Shaughnessy, CFA May 2018 http://osam.com/Commentary/factors-from-scratch Th...
by matjen
Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?
Replies: 45
Views: 2896

Re: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?

Well here is an excellent reason not to put money down on a Model 3. An absolutely horrid, scathing review of its build quality, quality control, etc. The Model S is already the most expensive car to insure in the US. The Model 3 will likely be similar and is not made to the standards of other manuf...
by matjen
Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11650

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Surely someone is going to defend SCV tilts, which, by the way, don't have to be very complex. And that someone is me! Once again I present "The Taylor Swedroe Portfolio"* DFA US Vector Equity I DFVEX (Or one of their tax managed tilted funds) DFA World ex US Targeted Val Instl DWUSX (22% or so Eme...
by matjen
Thu May 31, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter
Replies: 40
Views: 3666

Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter

More great stuff from Cliff Asness and AQR. The Hedgie in Winter https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/The-Hedgie-in-Winter Once again, I will review why hedge fund returns shouldn’t be compared to 100% long equities and how to do a more proper comparison. Analysts and authors often compare hedg...
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Here is an interesting article from a former auto brake engineer about this OTA brake update. It makes little logical sense that something like this can just be fixed in a matter of weeks with an OTA update. There is give and take in this stuff usually. To get something you have to give something up...
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

FoolStreet, I am SHOCKED that you managed to have a take that only incorporates the good news for Tesla but managed to leave out all the other concerns about the screen, wind noise, suspension, etc. that CR still has. :P Tesla is allegedly addressing these things but CR wants to spend time with the ...
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

It has the quotes Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars and mentions that all Teslas have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. I would appreciate a quote where Tesla says it has software capable of that. Hardware ...
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

4nursebee posted a CNBC link about this in another thread. Here is the Consumer Reports post where they indeed find a difference in the braking.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars-te ... ng-update/
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

The AP crash photo from YouYou came from someone who videoed himself driving in the dark with no headlights, was using AP in an unsupported area, and had been advised not to use it. There is significant evidence of his poor judgement online. What do you mean by unsupported? If you are referring to ...
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

The AP crash photo from YouYou came from someone who videoed himself driving in the dark with no headlights, was using AP in an unsupported area, and had been advised not to use it. There is significant evidence of his poor judgement online. What do you mean by unsupported? If you are referring to ...
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

Speaking of Autopilot - Another Tesla in autopilot mode crashed into a parked police car. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-tesla-collision-20180529-story.html At this point, AutoPilot is more of a liability than a feature. And how many crashes were there that day with no autopilot? How m...
by matjen
Wed May 30, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

Speaking of Autopilot - Another Tesla in autopilot mode crashed into a parked police car. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-tesla-collision-20180529-story.html At this point, AutoPilot is more of a liability than a feature. I’m sure this was driver error. Driver probably inadvertently hit...
by matjen
Mon May 28, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?
Replies: 113
Views: 7154

Re: Tesla Autopilot, worth it?

There is (was?) a Tesla Evangelist named You You Xue who did a road trip through America spreading the Tesla gospel in his Model 3 and then went to Europe for the same thing. Was pretty well known in Tesla circles. This just happened. Electrek has reported on it as well and given the Tesla spin. htt...
by matjen
Wed May 23, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Clutchied, Do you have Active Cruise Control with Stop & Go on your model? If so, I highly recommend this and finding a local person to code your car for you. Turns on the BMW version of AutoPilot. They call it Traffic Jam Assist in Europe. BMW turned it off in the US for some reason. Works great be...
by matjen
Wed May 23, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best buy and hold vanguard fund forever...
Replies: 28
Views: 3151

Re: Best buy and hold vanguard fund forever...

So assuming this fund is outside of any 401(k), IRA or other tax advantaged account then without a doubt (IMO) the best single fund would be Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). Adjust the bond side of the portfolio in your tax-advantaged accounts to ensure your asset allocation is where you want it...
by matjen
Tue May 22, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 84
Views: 6438

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Thanks for the heads up on this Robert T.
by matjen
Tue May 22, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Speaking from personal experience, I had a BMW that was luxurious and sporty. It was a love-hate relationship because it broke down all. the. time. And it was not cheap to fix. But you would see me out there with Zaino and trying to learn to change my own brakes etc. So, at worst, it can be compare...
by matjen
Tue May 22, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D I would rather expect that the i3 sales will drop off as the 3 ramps up more. The 3 will likely offer so much more per $. I3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-i3/ 3 sales data: http://car...
by matjen
Tue May 22, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Bogleheads: According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3: Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3 Best wishes. Taylor “If Tesla can update the brakes over the air - an industry first - we’d be happy to retest our Model 3,” said Jake Fisher, Consu...
by matjen
Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D
by matjen
Tue May 22, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Longdog wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 7:26 pm
$55k before rebates for the Model 3 AWD plus Premium Upgrade Package plus a non-black color. So it is a 25k difference in price.
Ah, thank you. A large delta for sure. I thought it was smaller in that configuration.
by matjen
Mon May 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 1105
Views: 86143

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

The 75D has a range of 259 miles, whereas the Model 3 Long Range has a range of 310 miles. So, I’m not sure what is equivalent between them. Which features or attributes would make them equivalent? The Model 3 isn’t really a “baby” Model S. Understood. That is a pro for that version of the Model 3 ...