Search found 97 matches

by hexagon
Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bike upgrade recs?
Replies: 51
Views: 2915

Re: Bike upgrade recs?

... one of his partners who he refers to as the 'moose' fits the profile you are asking. Moose apparently only weighs 200 lbs, so pretty light compared to what I was thinking. My friend is ripping spoke nipples right out of the rims on cobblestone sections and breaking spokes on less bumpy sections...
by hexagon
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Money in Bonds or Pay off house
Replies: 18
Views: 928

Re: Money in Bonds or Pay off house

Now I don't since it all went to paying off my house which is now an unleveraged depreciating asset . Sorry for the ignorant question but unless you consider the option of mortgage default, how is leverage related to whether your house is depreciating? As long as you are shifting money from bonds t...
by hexagon
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is best option for freeing up a lot of cash?
Replies: 30
Views: 2019

Re: What is best option for freeing up a lot of cash?

So, you already have the HELOC, and it's there ready to be tapped anytime? Why are you looking at any other options?? You're overthinking this. Because....the money borrowed from the HELOC would be at 4%, higher in the future. That's why you're seeing so many responding to my post voting for Option...
by hexagon
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8315

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

I suppose you should cap your leverage at 25%, or maybe a little less. Then if there is a 50% decline thereafter, you will still be in low interest rate territory. If I understand the calculation correctly, a 14% initial leverage with a 50% drop gives a final leverage just below 25% (and in the 1% ...
by hexagon
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 160
Views: 14955

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

SimpleGift wrote: There are many Bogleheads, mostly in retirement (including myself), who are one-way rebalancers such as you describe. When stocks do well, we rebalance into bonds. When stocks sell off, we sit tight with our large allocation to high-quality bonds and do nothing. However, personall...
by hexagon
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 160
Views: 14955

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:39 am It is not unrealistic. I did it yesterday.
+1
by hexagon
Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market sell off
Replies: 55
Views: 7849

Re: Market sell off

[/quote] Hello bogglehead community, I am watching the current market sell off and wondering if this is start of market correction. ... My gut feeling is that market price going to drop further and possibly more attractive deals will be become available later one. This might be the start of a correc...
by hexagon
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Average portfolio withdrawal rate...
Replies: 11
Views: 1298

Re: Average portfolio withdrawal rate...

Average is a good approximation, but geometric mean is a bit more meaningful when you deal with multiplicative properties like interest. For example, say your investments went up 1% one year and 7% the next. I see this when there is a fixed initial investment with no further additions/withdrawal bu...
by hexagon
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 2174
Views: 261789

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Just checked our accounts and saw that we passed $sqrt(2) million today with a balance of $1.415 million in retirement funds. I expect our balance will oscillate around that mark for some time. A few years ago this would have been our `number'. However, some extra, likely long-term, responsibilities...
by hexagon
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22425
Views: 2967292

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Would you be surprised to know Bogle himself readjusted his portfolio just before the dot com crash, moving a lot of his money out of stocks and into bonds? And with that in mind, do you think Bogle was not a true Boglehead? What I've learned from Taylor Larimore is that the Boglehead "Code is...
by hexagon
Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle Commuting in LA - Thoughts?
Replies: 100
Views: 8431

Re: Bicycle Commuting in LA - Thoughts?

stlutz wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:47 pm
Spending your life in a car is a good example for kids of a bad way to spend your life. :sharebeer
+1
by hexagon
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I just commit market timing with "dry powder"?
Replies: 46
Views: 5137

Re: Did I just commit market timing with "dry powder"?

Volatility is reduced, yet the 100/0 never dips below the 80-90% equity trends. Hmm. Of course such comparisons are very sensitive to when you start but it looks like the blue (100-0) falls below for most of the 2008-2012 period and is probably significantly below in 2009 (it is hidden somewhat by ...
by hexagon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stats on When People Take Social Security
Replies: 198
Views: 19307

Re: Stats on When People Take Social Security

The people went ballistic! Hundreds and hundreds of comments with every reason in the world to take SS at 62, mostly, and just a few at 66. It became obvious to me just how "in another universe" we Bogleheads are! Are we truly that small a percentage of the population? That 1% you keep he...
by hexagon
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 20492

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

I certainly prefer "unactionable" "I finally reached a million and I want to share the excitement, it's too dangerous to tell family and friends so let me share it with you Bogleheads!" threads vs "actionable" "I am 14 years old and have 5 million dollars, am I do...
by hexagon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is paying down the mortgage the right choice?
Replies: 16
Views: 2249

Re: Is paying down the mortgage the right choice?

While I would not view home equity as a bond, you can consider funds going towards paying the mortgage early as purchasing bonds at 4% (since you are not deducting interest). So until bond rates get over 4% I think it makes perfect sense to put extra funds towards the mortgage rather than towards bo...
by hexagon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security at age 62 perhaps?
Replies: 57
Views: 7029

Re: Social Security at age 62 perhaps?

DW took an early retirement June, 2017 when offered. She will be 62 this March. Our initial plans were to each take SS at age 70 in order to maximize payout. We are re-thinking that at this time. ... So, here is the question....is there any compelling reason not for my wife to take SS later this ye...
by hexagon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security at age 62 perhaps?
Replies: 57
Views: 7029

Re: Social Security at age 62 perhaps?

The most important decision in terms of longevity insurance is for the high earner (you) to delay SS until age 70 since the longevity tail events are much likelier to involve just one of you. Our plan is for me to certainly wait until 70. We could both wait until 70 but it may be that the extra inco...
by hexagon
Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Drowning in debt
Replies: 52
Views: 6748

Re: Drowning in debt

+1 for onourway's plan. Pay off the HELOC and build the emergency fund from cashflow. Also it seems unlikely that equity returns for the last 10 years will be like the next 10 years; in any case, I would not base my plans on continuing a 9% return. If I was comparing rates of return I would compare ...
by hexagon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just Divorced/Retirement Advice
Replies: 2
Views: 993

Re: Just Divorced/Retirement Advice

Just recently the QDRO's were final and I received my share of a 401k that has been in a Vanguard retirement fund. I feel an urgency to take action. I had been thinking about investing in an annuity for guaranteed income and have decided not to do that. I am feeling much more confident now about be...
by hexagon
Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 375
Views: 84580

Re: Retreat to cash

You posted last month that you sold everything and went to cash at S&P500 = 2208. The current post now says the sale is at 2260. What is true? marge-e has been consistent and transparent: 28-Nov-2016 post (bold added) One response on capital gain tax has reminded me to spread sales in taxable a...
by hexagon
Tue Aug 09, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I get a different cassette for my road bicycle? Currently 11-23
Replies: 40
Views: 3278

Re: Should I get a different cassette for my road bicycle? Currently 11-23

It looks like 27 is max recommended for a short cage 6600 rear der, but here is a discussion where some people say you can go to 30T: https://www.reddit.com/r/bikewrench/comments/34ue33/1230_cassette_on_an_ultegra_6600_shortcage/ My experience is that a 12-27 (or 12-28 which should also work) makes ...
by hexagon
Thu May 19, 2016 7:51 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Nashville / Mid-TN Chapter Master Thread
Replies: 49
Views: 15800

Re: Nashville / Mid-TN Chapter Master Thread

Gerst Haus sounds good. I am traveling most of June but otherwise hope to attend.
by hexagon
Tue Feb 23, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spouse files @ 62?
Replies: 8
Views: 1345

Re: Spouse files @ 62?

My wife and I are the same age (almost 61). As the primary wage earner, I am planning to take my SS at 70. Half of my FRA (66.2) is significantly larger than my wife's full benefit. Is there a reason why my wife shouldn't file at 62? If she does file at 62, can she still collect half of my FRA when...
by hexagon
Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?
Replies: 31
Views: 3577

Re: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?

We are currently putting new money 70/30 into VEIEX/DFSVX (i.e. Vanguard Emerging Markets/DFA small value) but at this point annual contributions are only 1-2% of portfolio so will take some time to get back to desired AA.
by hexagon
Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 58 year old Newbie
Replies: 3
Views: 604

Re: 58 year old Newbie

First off, I am very sorry to hear about your daughter. We are about the same age and my oldest daughter (now 25) had a rare iris melanoma when she was 15 that ended up costing here an eye. Because of the rarity of her condition we had to go out of network and quickly found out how fast medical bill...
by hexagon
Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buckets for a retiree?
Replies: 55
Views: 7169

Re: Buckets for a retiree?

Let me second our shipmates advice, cancel your meeting with the "planner" (salesman). The planner said he will have a written plan for me next week. I will be armed with questions for him. The "planner" will be ready for your questions with answers that sound good, but are reall...
by hexagon
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??
Replies: 92
Views: 11757

Re: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??

Wow, that is specific. In any case, why would you listen to these ...(can't think of an appropriate term). It might go to 13412--you read it here--but it might not.
by hexagon
Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vision - problems seeing things up-close
Replies: 24
Views: 2603

Re: Vision - problems seeing things up-close

I breezed right into progressive lenses just as soon as I started needing a reading prescription. I never had the slightest bit of trouble with them. From the experiences of people I know who are older and younger than myself, it seems to be somewhat harder to adjust to progressives if you don't st...
by hexagon
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 18055

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

It is even worse than that. Often the robot-generated headlines convey a tone that is the exact opposite of the facts being reported. I recall hearing one last year that was along the lines of "this is the largest drop since since [some year about 3 years ago]" which was conveyed in a man...
by hexagon
Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22425
Views: 2967292

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So I broke. I am seeing a lot of things I don't like in the market (not news articles). For the first time in my 12 years of investing as a Boglehead, I switched 90% out of Target Retirement 2045 and went to a Total Bond Index at least for the next 30 days. The 2007-2008 downturn didn't phase me a ...
by hexagon
Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy
Replies: 65
Views: 6968

Re: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy

Reversion to the mean says it is 54; the 9 heads and 1 tail have already happened, but their effect as a percentage will decline. The gambler's fallacy says that it is 50, or close to that. Reversion to the mean works because of independence. There is a 95% probability that 100 flips will be betwee...
by hexagon
Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Nashville / Mid-TN Chapter Master Thread
Replies: 49
Views: 15800

Re: Nashville / Mid-TN Chapter Master Thread

I would be interested in meeting. Any plans?
by hexagon
Mon Dec 21, 2015 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confirm Retirement Plan ?
Replies: 21
Views: 2068

Re: Confirm Retirement Plan ?

If I understand livesoft's tax strategy, then the paying off the mortgage will reduce cash flow and so may reduce taxes (this is definitely something you will have to check for your situation)--I will let someone else (maybe livesoft?) address how this would affect taxes. Here is the revised back of...
by hexagon
Sun Dec 20, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confirm Retirement Plan ?
Replies: 21
Views: 2068

Re: Confirm Retirement Plan ?

As others say it seems like your plan may be borderline, it all depends on how flexible is your spending plan. Back of the envelope computation: 1) Assuming $110K spending and SS is $61K, then at age 70 you will need $49K/year. 2) Using the 4% rule suggests you need assets of about $1,225,000 at age...
by hexagon
Sun Dec 20, 2015 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency Funds Are Bad! [Investopedia article]
Replies: 25
Views: 3577

Re: Emergency Funds Are Bad!

Are there a lot of people with large emergency funds that are carrying high-interest debt? I doubt it, so the premise of the article seems silly. On the other hand, I do like the idea of considering high-interest debt to be a financial emergency: Perhaps you’re worried about the transmission falling...
by hexagon
Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Hike - Thoughts?
Replies: 40
Views: 5277

Re: Interest Rate Hike - Thoughts?

I'm not sure. If so, where are you getting at? Most people hear "the S&P 500 index is down 1% this year" and they assume that means "the stocks in the SP 500 have returned -1% this year" and that is not true. The bottom line is most people simply do not understand that the p...
by hexagon
Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage or cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 2936

Re: Mortgage or cash?

If your retirement assets are in great shape, I'm a pay cash and don't bother with any loans. I'm with ThankYouJack, keep it simple--an all cash offer might also help in negotiations. Specifically, here are three options I would consider (but you have a number of nearly equivalent choices). a) Sinc...
by hexagon
Fri Nov 06, 2015 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain how are stocks and bonds down the same days??
Replies: 28
Views: 3404

Re: Please explain how are stocks and bonds down the same days??

When interest rates rise then both stock and bond prices tend to go down and, yes, the crash is coming, we just don't know when.
by hexagon
Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Rate Question
Replies: 7
Views: 1087

Re: Savings Rate Question

Since you are contributing up to match and it is not coming out of $3k, here is a suggestion for an 8 month plan. 2 months @ $2.5k into EF and $.5k to interest bearing debt => $5k EF; debt $6k; stuff fund $0 2 months @ $3k to debt => $5k EF; debt $0; stuff fund $0 4 months @ $2.5k to EF and $.5k to ...
by hexagon
Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Rate Question
Replies: 7
Views: 1087

Re: Savings Rate Question

What I would do: First, contribute up to whatever is your match in 401k. Second, at least partially fund your EF (say to at least 1 month's expenses). Third, I would pay off debt next, but at least continue with the plan to payoff interest bearing debt. Fourth, complete EF. Edit: Fifth, I would post...
by hexagon
Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Interviews Richard Thaler
Replies: 4
Views: 901

Re: Vanguard Interviews Richard Thaler

Nice article, thanks for posting. This part about overconfidence is relevant to recent threads about going 100% cash/bonds or 100% equities. The second bias that causes a lot of trouble is overconfidence. Most people think they are above-average investors, and as a result they trade too much and div...
by hexagon
Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 374
Views: 70819

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

At any given moment, no matter what--but especially in times of financial drama--you are going to find people who are totally confident that stocks are about to crash and that it is simply prudence and common sense to go straight to cash, and you are also going to find people who are totally confid...
by hexagon
Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle commuting
Replies: 91
Views: 9390

Re: Bicycle commuting

Any Bogleheads ride folding road-bicycles with regular wheel size? If you do, please let me know its pros and cons. I contemplate buying a folding roadbike that I can use in next inter-state driving trip. My folder has 20-inchers, so I can't help you there. I will say that plenty of people have don...
by hexagon
Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: White Coat Investor critiques a David Ramsey rant on Bogle
Replies: 24
Views: 7243

Re: White Coat Investor critiques a David Ramsey rant on Bogle

... http://whitecoatinvestor.com/dave-ramsey-doubles-down-on-his-bad-investment-advice/ ... Oh, that's a great column. Thanks for pointing it out to us. ^I totally agree. I really enjoyed reading the column. Very nice article. One (very) small nit to pick: That math stuff is tough, isn’t it. Actual...
by hexagon
Thu Oct 15, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle commuting
Replies: 91
Views: 9390

Re: Bicycle commuting

But whether I'm a pedestrian or driver I hate cyclists... :) The safety rule-of-thumb I always go by is that if you're on a motorcycle, you should drive as if the cars can't see you. If you're on a bicycle, you should drive as if the cars can see you... and are actively trying to kill you. :P This ...
by hexagon
Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle commuting
Replies: 91
Views: 9390

Re: Bicycle commuting

My wife and I are a one car family and I bike 16 miles each way to work. For me, the only way to make it financially worth it was to sell a car and eliminate the fixed costs of car ownership. .... For me, I do it because I enjoy the ride and with a 1 yr old it's my only chance to consistently ride....
by hexagon
Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with my financial plan
Replies: 28
Views: 3590

Re: Help with my financial plan

Congratulations on your strong financial situation at your ages! I agree with PizzaSteve that simplifying your portfolio is a good idea and that your desired 20/40/40 allocation seems very reasonable in your situation. The only question about your asset allocation is whether your wife is also comfor...
by hexagon
Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you decide your asset allocation?
Replies: 175
Views: 21660

Re: How do you decide your asset allocation?

bh7 asked: "How do you determine your asset allocation?" Pre-retirement: I am now in the home stretch (58 years old), and I have converted to valuation-based portfolio allocation based on CAPE 10. Pfau's writings on this topic suggest to me that it is conservative, and has potential for b...
by hexagon
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap copy of Lange's Retire Secure 3rd Edition
Replies: 71
Views: 12242

Re: Cheap copy of Lange's Retire Secure 3rd Edition

I tried to order with the deal, but where do you add code "Bogle"? Thanks Just ordered. After clicking "Add to cart" there is an "Enter Promo Code" near the top of the "Cart" page. The discount shows up after clicking on "Review order" at bottom of ...
by hexagon
Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22425
Views: 2967292

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

nobody knows nothing . That means everybody knows something? According to Leonard Cohen there are some things everybody knows: Everybody knows that the dice are loaded Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows that the war is over Everybody knows the good guys lost Everybody knows ...