Search found 70 matches

by RedJones
Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Investing In Japan - Japanese Mutual Funds
Replies: 36
Views: 5517

Re: Investing In Japan - Japanese Mutual Funds

chowderhaus wrote:
So now I'm going to do what I probably should have done in the first place: open up a state-side Vanguard account and do my investing from there. But since this is all new to me, I have a few questions:
Vanguard once told me that they would not open new accounts for US citizens living abroad, although they would not close an already existing account for a customer moving abroad. I don't know what their current policy on that is, but you might be well-advised to use US address when you open the account.
by RedJones
Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Travel insurance questions
Replies: 6
Views: 1028

Re: Travel insurance questions

Travel insurance looks like a mug's game to me. The purpose of insurance generally is to pay a company to carry a risk of financial loss that we cannot afford to bear ourselves. So, fire insurance on the house is worthwhile since we cannot afford to pay for the rebuilding out of pocket, but laptop insurance is not. However, the financial cost for travel occurs when you pay for the trip up front. This is a loss that you can certainly bear because you have decided that you can afford the trip. Unlike the house that has burned down, if your trip becomes unavailable, because, for instance, the cruise company goes belly up, you have no obligation to replace the trip. So, even though you have lost the entire value of the trip, your actual financi...
by RedJones
Sat Jun 02, 2012 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally vs ING...
Replies: 7
Views: 3300

Re: Ally vs ING...

kenolds wrote:Now that all those are below 1% I'm looking at the new Barclays Bank (1%) and TIAA Direct (1.25%) for my savings account.

Ken
The TIAA Direct rate is "promotional." Won't last.
by RedJones
Thu May 31, 2012 8:40 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Dealing with foreign currency risk
Replies: 21
Views: 3749

Re: Dealing with foreign currency risk

avbferry wrote:As a foreign investor, I have been searching for ideas on how to deal with foreign currency risk.

Thanks :)
What specific foreign currency risk do you face?
by RedJones
Mon May 28, 2012 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

As I mentioned earlier when I run simulations using modest expectations for portfolio returns, delaying SS increases my annual disposable income by a significant amount for the lifetimes of my wife and myself. Significant amount?... Prove it! If I sound like an advocate for Esplanner, I am, although only as a happy user. Frankly, planning without a tool that incorporates portfolios, insurance, annuities, SS, federal and state taxes, housing changes, changes in tax & benefit policies, etc. would be inadequate because the interactions are far too complex for the back of an envelope. People fall back on the break-even analysis because it's easy to do, although beside the point, and because they don't have access to a simulator that handle...
by RedJones
Mon May 28, 2012 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kahneman on "The Trap of Thinking That We Know"
Replies: 60
Views: 6578

Re: Kahneman on "The Trap of Thinking That We Know"

An excellent talk, but pretty discouraging for the future of problems like global warming.
by RedJones
Mon May 28, 2012 2:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3372
Views: 1560825

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Just finished Alfred Lancing's Endurance: Shackleton's Incredible Voyage . I have always known who Shakleton was but I never really knew the details. What a great story of perseverance in the most barren of conditions! The 28 men were stranded on the trapped boat for 10 months, then on various ice floes for 6 months followed by 3 weeks in the life boats before they make it to Elephant Island. But that only starts the story, from there Shackleton and 5 others take the largest of the boats and sail 880 miles over some of the most treacherous seas for South Georgia island, the currents are so intense that if they pass the island in the night or in the fog, there will be no going back – and yet they succeed here also, just as they run out of f...
by RedJones
Mon May 28, 2012 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

BigFoot48 wrote: I used Google and it appears one can only suspend after reaching FRA,
Link doesn't work for me, but I believe you. Thanks for the correction.
by RedJones
Mon May 28, 2012 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

At factor not usually accounted for: - SS is $20,000 at 62 for example - you delay, which means using other resources - you decide to delay to 70 - you die at 68 - SS you didn't collect $120,000 (6x$20,000) - your spouse, assuming they had their own SS equal benefits, has lost joint assets of $120,000 - no spouse, your heirs have $120,000 less How do you figure that in ...nobody does ... but, there is a potential financial impact. Nope, not true. I, and many others, figure in the effects of early death on the SS benefits claiming strategy. One of the features of the esplanner financial planner tool that I use is that it recommends an amount of term life insurance (and budgets the cost) with each lifetime plan scenario that you run. The ter...
by RedJones
Sun May 27, 2012 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

You could even start the SS benefits in a down year and then if in the next year the market turns up, delay them again so that you could still earn DRC credits before hitting 70. Where is that procedure documented? At any time that you are receiving SS benefits you can suspend them. To do so after age 70 would not earn you any Delayed Retirement Credits and so would be pointless. However, at any time between 62 and 70 you do earn DRCs by suspending. As far as I know there is no limit to the number of times you and suspend and then refile, but there is a turn-around time involved along with the age 70 deadline for gaining any DRC. Google is your friend, but here is a link to start with: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124553350822734603.html
by RedJones
Sun May 27, 2012 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

I didn't say there is an improvement. I said that there is risk involved with depleting your portfolio early which delaying SS aggravates. There are many ways to mitigate that risk. But that risk has a cost and that cost should be included in your analysis. Your proposal of an eight year annuity probably has a lower cost than my MM fund example but there is still a cost because that annuity will have a lower expected return than your portfolio as a whole. BTW the risk of a major downturn is more than just using your capital for living expenses you will also have fewer resources for rebalancing before the market turns around. I expect that it is this second scenario that is the primary reason for running our of money before you die. The ann...
by RedJones
Sun May 27, 2012 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need recommendation for backup program.
Replies: 25
Views: 3319

Re: Need recommendation for backup program.

Start with the requirements for adequate backup: 1. must be able to restore all files and the OS in a single step to a replacement drive, i.e. not necessary to re-install and re-patch the operating system 2. must be able to verify the backup without additional hardware. This means you should be able to restore an individual file from time to time from the backup. Since you need a bootable backup you should also boot from it occasionally. All this should be easy and safe, which is to say, does not endanger your source disk or files. 3. more efficient if software can do an incremental backup after an initial image backup. Requirement #2 precludes using backup systems with proprietary storage formats like Acronis. When I last used Acronis a fe...
by RedJones
Sat May 26, 2012 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

No matter how good your plan it can always be affected by severe events and retirees should always be prepared to adapt as necessary. There are ways to protect ahead of time against the particular possibility of large market losses early in retirement, such as limiting equity exposure, buying a fixed-term annuity to cover only the years from 62 to 70, or holding enough cash like cut-throat. So if my SS would be $50K a year and I planned on deferring for 10 years I would need another $500,000 (declining amount over time) in cash to protect myself? OK. I could do that but then I have $500k earning MM returns instead of maybe 4% real for the rest if my portfolio. All I am saying that this lower return for my "safety funds" needs to ...
by RedJones
Sat May 26, 2012 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

Running out of money is a key risk factor that is being overlooked in this discussion. You can do all kinds of analysis with the outcome measured at how much money you have. Hey guys stock market returns historically give us about a 6% real return. That means we can safely withdraw 6% return plus say 1/30 of the principle each year during retirement with a 100% stock portfolio. Right :?: No wrong. SWR are typically around only 4%. The danger is having to liquidate extra capital during a market downturn. Delaying taking your SS benefits means you have to use up more of your capital early thus increasing your risk of running our later. Somehow this risk needs to be part of the decision making process. TANSTAAFL No matter how good your plan i...
by RedJones
Fri May 25, 2012 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is moving to Greece next year a good move or bad for me?
Replies: 28
Views: 4030

Re: Is moving to Greece next year a good move or bad for me?

I don't think you would have wanted to live in Argentina in 2001/2002 even though it would have been a financial bargain.
by RedJones
Fri May 25, 2012 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?
Replies: 83
Views: 8239

Re: Should You Buy a Life Annuity from Social Security?

The same misconceptions about SS come up again and again, especially looking at when to take benefits as an investment decision using a break-even analysis. I really grasped the implications of SS as an insurance decision when I ran scenarios using esplanner financial planning software. Esplanner outputs an estimate of how much disposable income you can have in each scenario, reflecting all the financial aspects, including the cost of funding living expenses between age 62 and 70. Delaying SS results in more disposable income under realistic assumptions about investment portfolio returns. This is true even if I die sooner than expected. The reason is that I can spend more now because the increased lifetime benefit relieves me of the necessi...
by RedJones
Sun May 20, 2012 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Internet security via Surfeasy Clark Howard recommends!
Replies: 9
Views: 2371

Re: Internet security via Surfeasy Clark Howard recommends!

I would avoid this man-in-the-middle even though it is probably ok. Why take the risk? All of the brokerage sites use https. So, you're not really at risk for them. Email might not be so safe depending. Your firewall on the laptop should protect you from attacks over the wifi, but if you want to be even safer download a linux boot cd like Knoppix and boot from that before accessing your money sites.
by RedJones
Tue May 01, 2012 2:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 14488

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

On the top of this page, I already pointed out that the 401k system "failed" because people didn't contribute enough money. People didn't contribute enough because they chose to spend their money on something else. The 401k system didn't fail the participants. The participants, including the subject in the OP, chose to fail themselves. If everyone is required to contribute 15% plus 7% match from the employer, have the money invested in TSP in target date funds, annuitized at retirement age, you bet it's going to pay out more than the same money sent to SS. Otherwise posters on this board would not invest in Vanguard funds but would buy deferred annuity every year. Your defense of the 401k is the standard, conservative everyone-is...
by RedJones
Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 14488

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

Your reply is incoherent. From 1935 until 1983 there was no SS Trust Fund and there was no investment. The receipts of the payroll tax were promptly paid out as SS benefits. That is still true of the SS system, except for the Trust Fund which was designed to be a temporary measure to accommodate the pig-in-the-python of the baby boomers. The Greenspan Commission in setting up the Trust Fund intended the fund to be held in Treasuries as it has been. The problem of Trust Fund's depletion earlier than planned has essentially nothing to do with poor investment returns. The recent advancement of the expected date of depletion of the Trust Fund is due to the decline in payroll tax collections due to the employment recession. I don't know what pa...
by RedJones
Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: contribute to a not so good 401k?
Replies: 6
Views: 827

Re: contribute to a not so good 401k?

Why does it matter? The 401k gives you the opportunity to tax-defer $17k. That's the main benefit. So, it sits in a money market fund for two years and then, when you leave the company, gets transferred to your IRA where it may stay for decades.
by RedJones
Mon Apr 30, 2012 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 14488

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

No, for the simple reason that money doesn't grow on trees in SS. SS is invested in Treasury bonds that pay 4%. The 401k investments are invested in a mix of stocks and bonds -- the Vanguard report I linked to above shows about 65% in stocks. With a lower rate of return, SS can't pay out more than 401k (except to the low income participants who receive a transfer from higher income participants). If right now SS appears to pay out more, that's the very reason you hear about its problem: it's not actuarially sustainable at this payout level for the contribution rate. Is it really impossible for you to grasp that the principal benefit an annuity like SS enjoys is the mortality credit. Unlike your investment portfolio, you only get paid if yo...
by RedJones
Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 14488

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

No, for the simple reason that money doesn't grow on trees in SS. SS is invested in Treasury bonds that pay 4%. The 401k investments are invested in a mix of stocks and bonds -- the Vanguard report I linked to above shows about 65% in stocks. With a lower rate of return, SS can't pay out more than 401k (except to the low income participants who receive a transfer from higher income participants). If right now SS appears to pay out more, that's the very reason you hear about its problem: it's not actuarially sustainable at this payout level for the contribution rate. Is it really impossible for you to grasp that the principal benefit an annuity like SS enjoys is the mortality credit. Unlike your investment portfolio, you only get paid if yo...
by RedJones
Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 14488

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

The solution to both retirement funding and preserving the consumer economy would be to expand SS to provide not merely the minimum level of living in retirement, but an adequate level. We are getting into politics here, but with our country's current deficit problems, I think your solution is not realistic. Aliens landing on earth is probably more likely to happen. Too bad if that's the case. Like defense, It would be much cheaper to fund retirement collectively than individually. Imagine if you could buy as much additional annuity as you wanted from the actuarially-fair SSA and didn't have to consider a private insurer. Again, not addressing the political possibility, each worker has to save something for retirement. Right now almost all...
by RedJones
Mon Apr 30, 2012 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings
Replies: 77
Views: 12318

Re: Retirees: How to add $340,000 to retirement savings

Reverse Mortgage....... No way I'd live in a RV.... 2nd that Burns's approach is much more cost-effective than a reverse mortgage, where the miracle of compound interest is working against you. My parents took out a reverse mortgage thinking it didn't matter if the bank got the house in the end because they would die in it. That was naive. What happened is that the driving skills of my healthy father declined enough so that he cause two auto accidents. At that point we prevailed on him to give up driving and relocate close to my brother. By that point the $12k that he was drawing from his RM was costing him $25k in interest per year. I imagine having to leave the house earlier than death happens to a lot of RM'ed seniors at which point the...
by RedJones
Mon Apr 30, 2012 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 14488

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

fishndoc wrote:
RedJones wrote:The solution to both retirement funding and preserving the consumer economy would be to expand SS to provide not merely the minimum level of living in retirement, but an adequate level.
We are getting into politics here, but with our country's current deficit problems, I think your solution is not realistic.

Aliens landing on earth is probably more likely to happen.
Too bad if that's the case. Like defense, It would be much cheaper to fund retirement collectively than individually. Imagine if you could buy as much additional annuity as you wanted from the actuarially-fair SSA and didn't have to consider a private insurer.
by RedJones
Sun Apr 29, 2012 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 14488

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

It all comes back to the final two sentences in Bill Bernstein's "Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part IV": If you want to retire early, what matters is not how much you save, but how much more than everyone else you save. In a world where everyone saves as if they’re going to retire at fifty-five, or even at sixty-five, none can . http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/103/hell4.htm If you are not familiar with this four-part article by Dr. Bernstein, I would highly recommend a quick read. It may completely change your perspective on the national "savings crisis". How can Bernstein discuss changes in the ratio of workers to SS recipients without ever mentioning changes in productivity over the last 70 years and for the f...
by RedJones
Sun Apr 29, 2012 1:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken vs. Moneydance
Replies: 16
Views: 13578

Re: Quicken vs. Moneydance

Eric wrote:For Mac users dissatisfied with Quicken Essentials, Intuit recently released a Lion-compatible version of their older (but fuller-featured) Quicken 2007 software. I am frustrated with Intuit, but this is a reasonable option pending further development (someday, I hope) of the more modern Quicken Essentials code base.
Why wouldn't you just run Quicken under Fusion or Parallels that permits you to run windows on your mac?
by RedJones
Wed Apr 25, 2012 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Longevity
Replies: 60
Views: 4866

Re: Retirement Longevity

Is it just me or does it appear that most folks who make it to retirement at age 65 do not live into their 90's, making this all-out drive to reach a certain asset level all for naught or really, just for the benefit of heirs/and or some ultimate beneficiary? Do you have fire insurance on your house? Which is more likely: you live into your 90's or your house burns down? Apples and oranges because the cost to insure your house is way less than the cost to insure longevity. People don't buy insurance just because it is cheap. They buy it when they cannot afford to bear the loss themselves. Or, at least. that is the rational approach. Yeah but they also don't buy insurance when they cant afford to bear the immediate cost of the premium, even...
by RedJones
Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shiller: No housing recovery for a generation
Replies: 80
Views: 9177

Re: Shiller: No housing recovery for a generation

Rodc wrote:
And only for those that bought near the top.

I bought my house in 1993. The drop value was a non-event for many.

Sounds like you are one of those people who thinks that losing unrealized gain is fundamentally different than losing any other kind of value. A drop in net worth is still a loss, even if you don't default on your mortgage.
by RedJones
Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shiller: No housing recovery for a generation
Replies: 80
Views: 9177

Re: Shiller: No housing recovery for a generation

Jerilynn wrote:
Statistically, it could be attributed to random luck. No one can time the market or predict market trends consistently over time. (Especially, short term)
Even if the equities market is a random walk and untimeable, it does not follow that all markets exhibit that behavior. In particular, the housing market is hardly random. There are certainly trends. It's a big mistake to assume that all markets work the way you assume the equity market does.
by RedJones
Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Longevity
Replies: 60
Views: 4866

Re: Retirement Longevity

Leesbro63 wrote:
RedJones wrote:
GRT2BOUTDOORS wrote: Is it just me or does it appear that most folks who make it to retirement at age 65 do not live into their 90's, making this all-out drive to reach a certain asset level all for naught or really, just for the benefit of heirs/and or some ultimate beneficiary?
Do you have fire insurance on your house? Which is more likely: you live into your 90's or your house burns down?
Apples and oranges because the cost to insure your house is way less than the cost to insure longevity.
People don't buy insurance just because it is cheap. They buy it when they cannot afford to bear the loss themselves. Or, at least. that is the rational approach.
by RedJones
Mon Apr 23, 2012 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Longevity
Replies: 60
Views: 4866

Re: Retirement Longevity

GRT2BOUTDOORS wrote: Is it just me or does it appear that most folks who make it to retirement at age 65 do not live into their 90's, making this all-out drive to reach a certain asset level all for naught or really, just for the benefit of heirs/and or some ultimate beneficiary?
Do you have fire insurance on your house? Which is more likely: you live into your 90's or your house burns down?
by RedJones
Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: article on when to take SS benefits
Replies: 26
Views: 3225

Re: article on when to take SS benefits

Distinguishing the criterion of breaking even on payout from using SS to manage longevity risk is pretty important when considering this question. No, it's not important at all. A break even analysis is for an investment decision. Delaying SS is an insurance decision which comes down to: can I accept the longevity risk myself or should I offload it to an insurance company at a price by buying more coverage? No one considers the break even cost of fire insurance. The goal is not to get the most out of the SSA per se. The goal is to avoid running out of money when we're old no matter how long we will survive. Delaying SS supports that goal. Even if you were to die the next day, that wouldn't mean the strategy failed, because you did avoid ol...
by RedJones
Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reform/Abolish the Employer 401k
Replies: 33
Views: 5422

Re: Reform/Abolish the Employer 401k

I doubt if anyone believes that the 401k came into being because the Congress took the retirement needs of Americans to heart. The 401k was a provision in the IRS rules for a preferential savings vehicle for high-income employees that a smart lawyer found a way to exploit for the rest of us. A rational approach would be to study the retirement systems and savings vehicles offered by other rich countries, such as the superannuation scheme in Australia, the TSP and others, and design a system with the best features. The danger in substantial reform, however, is a system that is much worse because the 401k sharks have more influence than you and I do.
by RedJones
Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: younger boomers and plan to retire in 10 years
Replies: 4
Views: 984

Re: younger boomers and plan to retire in 10 years

suming wrote:The ratio of retirees to active workers in US will be dramatically shifted. As retirees sell stocks and then bonds to support their living, there will be fewer younger investors to buy those stocks and bonds.
That's a plausible scenario, but it would be hard to quantify. Also, what about countervailing tendencies such as the possibility of expanding access to global equities markets to accommodate demand from growing middle class segments around the world? In other countries, like SE Asia, the bulge in the population occurs at a much younger cohort than the US baby boomers.
by RedJones
Thu Apr 05, 2012 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online bill pay
Replies: 70
Views: 5624

Re: Online bill pay

I pay almost everything online and automatically. I have never had a problem with my touch free method. I review all the actual bills themselves and can always contest something or correct an error but I don't even recall any of those. Am I being naive or not paranoid enough? Some of us are indeed more paranoid by nature, but the other side of the risk/reward question is just how valuable is the benefit? I am frequently surprised at how people overvalue, as it seems to me, a miniscule increase in convenience and are willing to assume ill-defined risks to achieve it. Paying bills by mailing checks never seemed to me to be a problem crying out for a solution. Maybe I spent an hour per month or so at it. How much risk am I willing to assume t...
by RedJones
Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online bill pay
Replies: 70
Views: 5624

Re: Online bill pay

Theory aside, I still like the extra piece of mind of knowing that ALL my traffic is encrypted and private when I'm online in public locations. For that, I use a service from witopia.net called PersonalVPN . It costs $50-70 a year and lets you set up a VPN between your laptop and their servers over any public network (wifi or wired). This configuration should be impervious to man-in-the-middle attacks from untrusted open wifi networks because the keys used to secure connection are pre-shared and can't easily be forged. This gives me extra piece of mind for SSL traffic (probably not needed) and also secures less sensitive traffic, like unsecured web email and browsing the bogleheads forum. Jim You do realize that your traffic is encrypted b...
by RedJones
Fri Mar 30, 2012 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent due question
Replies: 22
Views: 2243

Re: Rent due question

See if you can interest them in one of the new, cheap and fast payment systems. I have used dwolla.com and popmoney. After both parties have set up their bank relationships with dwolla.com the transfer is instantaneous, can be automated, and costs each party only 25 cents, a lot less than a credit card transaction. Since the landlord wants to get the money, you might be able to interest him in it.
by RedJones
Thu Mar 29, 2012 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online bill pay
Replies: 70
Views: 5624

Re: Online bill pay

I use online bill paying, but not automatically. I do think it is better to send a check for payments where disputes are more likely to arise because a cancelled check seems still to be the best, or at least most readily accepted, proof of payment. That list included the landlord and doctor's offices, which seem to be the worst at failing to credit payments correctly. Emailing a copy of the cancelled check always settled it. The banks that I have used for bill paying will mail a check instead of an ACH, but they don't provide you with a copy of the cancelled bank check. As far as I could tell they also debit your account immediately not when the check clears. So, you cannot actually tell if the recipient has collected the funds. That's not ...
by RedJones
Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How was my credit card stolen?
Replies: 41
Views: 5826

Re: How was my credit card stolen?

The whole discussion reflects the erroneous view that most credit card fraud originates with the actual card. My understanding is that only a tiny percentage actually start that way. Most fraud comes from penetrating the computer systems of retailers and the credit card companies themselves.
by RedJones
Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Luck or Hard Work
Replies: 59
Views: 8836

Re: Luck or Hard Work

If you think others are luckier than you, take your next vacation in a third-world country. That should correct the distortion from the data sampling error.
by RedJones
Thu Mar 08, 2012 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 100
Views: 12118

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

I have enjoyed reading Hussman for years. He's smart and writes very well. I would never invest in his fund though. Like a lot of successful equity managers he outperformed in his early years and has since reverted to the mean. What I find interesting in reading him over the last few years (during which he has underperformed) is that he has consistently predicted poor returns for equities, but that's the very product he is selling! I don't really understand why he would expect his own readers to invest in his fund. If they read him and take it to heart why would they invest in his equities? Sure, he has a secret options/hedging strategy, but it doesn't seem to have protected him very well.
by RedJones
Tue Feb 07, 2012 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a US citizen be a resident of NO state?
Replies: 61
Views: 29374

Re: Can a US citizen be a resident of NO state?

Basically, there is a difference between residence and domicile. You can have many residences, but only one domicile. You can have at most one tax domicile, but you may not have any. Provided that you do not meet the requirements for tax domicile in the last state in which you reside, then you no longer have tax domicile in any state. That is my current status. I live abroad and do not have an intention of returning to reside in NY state. I don't meet any of the criteria for establishing tax domicile in NY, i.e. own no property there, will not vote, and do not hold a driver's license. I certainly will not be paying NY state taxes. But I won't be able to vote. However, it does depend on the tax domicile rules of your last state. VA takes th...
by RedJones
Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend moving in, lots of student loan debt
Replies: 69
Views: 15264

Re: Girlfriend moving in, lots of student loan debt

I can certainly understand feeling both committed and not wanting to get married. However, I suggest you review the substantial financial benefits to marriage before you decide to forego them. I know a couple who have been together for many years without marriage and are now retired. She had high earnings while he never earned very much as a musician. Had they married he would have half of her social security payment as a spousal benefit for life and could inherit her benefit if she were to die first. Instead, he is broke. In addition to SS benefits there are favorable inheritance rights to retirement accounts, access to family health insurance and probably other benefits.
by RedJones
Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bodie: Plan your retirement portfolio for zero real return
Replies: 230
Views: 23200

Re: Bodie: Plan your retirement portfolio for zero real retu

nisiprius wrote:
In a thought experiment, in principle we could put dollar values on human capital and imagine measuring correlation coefficients and so forth, but in real life you can't do it. It's all IF we had ham, we could have ham and eggs, IF we had some eggs. If we actually knew that our income had an 0.78 correlation to the MSCI U.S. IM Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 25/50 Index, then, sure, we could short that sector or something.
Reminds me of the McNamara Fallacy: quantify everything you can and ignore the rest. Surely you don't think that a tenured professor and a movie actor should regard their labor income as equivalent for planning purposes?
by RedJones
Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Compass Do You Follow? Moral or Legal
Replies: 75
Views: 6703

Re: Which Compass Do You Follow? Moral or Legal

I love how everyone gets pious when there is a thread like this about moral imperatives or else how much attention to pay to status, etc. Those are the issues on which people's self-report is not reliable. This is my descending order of feeling obligated to pay debts or otherwise pay money, if push came to shove: immediate family (wife) immediate family of origin close friends not so close friends other people corporations (but only to the extent of legal requirement) Now, I hasten to point out that push has never come to shove and I have paid off every debt and met every other financial obligation that I have ever had in my life on time. I would also like to point out that I expect that everyone's willingness to pay corresponds pretty clos...
by RedJones
Sun Dec 18, 2011 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The age old question of home as invesment (from a rookie)
Replies: 38
Views: 3980

Re: The age old question of home as invesment (from a rookie

Whether or not a home is an investment is mostly a question of semantics -- what is the definition of investment? A sensible analysis would be whether or not this is your most cost effective way of meeting your needs and desires for housing. Nothing could be further from the truth. Renting a home is consumption. Buying a home is consumption plus investment. The difference is the expectation of a return. Consumption does not give a return. No one runs the risk of going broke for a bottle of wine. Seldom for a car. But buying a home has a large financial risk of a poor return that can have a huge effect on the net worth of the buyer. That's what makes it different from buying a bottle of wine. Unless you are rich enough to be indifferent to ...
by RedJones
Sun Dec 18, 2011 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The age old question of home as invesment (from a rookie)
Replies: 38
Views: 3980

Re: The age old question of home as invesment (from a rookie

dbr wrote:My question is what difference would it make to anyone if a home is or is not an investment according to someone's notion of what an investment is?
It matters that young people seeking advice like the OP are not encouraged to overlook the essential risk-taking aspect of home ownership in the guise of merely simplifying the issue.
by RedJones
Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The age old question of home as invesment (from a rookie)
Replies: 38
Views: 3980

Re: The age old question of home as invesment (from a rookie

ruralavalon wrote:In my view a home is not an investment, it is a place to live.
Flatly untrue, although we hear this piety repeated endlessly. A home is not an investment only if you are rich enough to be completely indifferent to the gain or loss resulting from the sale. There are some people in that category, but most are not. My brother, for example. He overpaid at the top of the bubble on his first home. Financial crisis destroyed his business. He has been paying all along, but can't pay now and is walking away. He's 60, broke, and will never recover financially.

Tell him a home is not an investment, just a place to live.
by RedJones
Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Christopher Hitchens R.I.P.
Replies: 14
Views: 1891

Re: Christopher Hitchens R.I.P.

Hitchens deserved enormous acclaim for going after Mother Theresa for the fraud that she was. As far as I am aware he was the only journalist who did so.