Search found 3133 matches

by azanon
Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your primary credit card?
Replies: 117
Views: 10239

Re: What's your primary credit card?

Alliant Visa Signature - 2.5% cash back on all purchases.
by azanon
Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wine - what are we paying more for … ?
Replies: 185
Views: 32753

Re: Wine - what are we paying more for … ?

I've had the same experience of failing to think more expensive wines are better. I usually buy box wines and the two brands that I find are consistently good are Bota Box and Black Box (this one being slightly better than Bota.)

I'll occasionally try an expensive bottle of wine, and it's rare that I'll think it even has parity with its equivalent box wine. Usually they're worse.
by azanon
Mon Jan 29, 2024 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no REITS in VYM, the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF,
Replies: 15
Views: 2066

Re: Why no REITS in VYM, the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF,

I don't have a source to prove it, but I think it's what Phyneas said/implied - they want all of the dividends to be qualified.
by azanon
Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 2256
Views: 605710

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Longinvest,

Incredibly helpful response - thanks for taking the time to write that! I might borrow your personal solution that you're giving your wife.

To clarify succulently, I definitely wasn't looking to derail it into a tax discussion, rather just wanted to make sure I was making a sensible decision in how I was using this accumulation/retirement worksheet given my and my wife's 2 Roth IRAs + my large Traditional IRA. I knew dollar-for-dollar, a Roth IRA dollar was quite a bit more than a traditional one, so I thought I should ask.
by azanon
Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 2256
Views: 605710

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I imagine this has been asked before (sorry), but on the "accumulation" worksheet, is the "suggested portfolio contribution," using a before, or after tax basis? Like many, I have both Roth and Traditional IRA options, so saving in Roth requires more money since I'm paying the taxes upfront.

And the reverse of the same question, in retirement, if I have both Roth and Traditional IRAs, should I withdraw in direct proportion to the percent I have in each?
by azanon
Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 2256
Views: 605710

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

<Deleted - question answered by Longinvest>
by azanon
Thu Dec 01, 2022 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Risk Parity Portfolio Construction Framework (without Leverage)
Replies: 101
Views: 8495

Re: Risk Parity Portfolio Construction Framework

EfficientInvestor - you and I have similar interest. My version of a (unlevered) risk parity portfolio was in this thread with the final portfolio being at the bottom of the first post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=206028 It was pretty cool that while I was doing that, I was getting some help from a former Bridgewater employee (dm's, not in the thread). I won't comment further - just sharing that cause I thought you might be interested. Nice. I took a look at your allocations and they seem to pair up fairly well with what I have concluded in this post. Below is a comparison. I took some liberties swapping out some of your ETFs for mutual funds that have been around a little longer. I couldn't find a good substitute for ...
by azanon
Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Risk Parity Portfolio Construction Framework (without Leverage)
Replies: 101
Views: 8495

Re: Risk Parity Portfolio Construction Framework

EfficientInvestor - you and I have similar interest. My version of a (unlevered) risk parity portfolio was in this thread with the final portfolio being at the bottom of the first post: viewtopic.php?t=206028

It was pretty cool that while I was doing that, I was getting some help from a former Bridgewater employee (dm's, not in the thread).

I won't comment further - just sharing that cause I thought you might be interested.
by azanon
Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (Nov 2023)
Replies: 231
Views: 38136

Re: TSP G Fund rate 3.00% (June 2022)

My RIA (blooominc) uses about a 4:1 ratio of F fund to G fund for bonds. I guess they know what they're doing but "ouch" so far for 2022!
by azanon
Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 2256
Views: 605710

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Thanks so much Snowbog and longinvest, taking the time to answer my question. I'm at work now, but this is hugely helpful, and I'll look at it closer this weekend based on that guidance to plan accordingly and adjust where I need to!
by azanon
Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 2256
Views: 605710

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Quick question about V2.7 on the accumulation sheet. I noticed when I updated it at my birthday this year using the new version, I was getting the new warning message that my portfolio was too small to bridge pensions (I forget exactly what it said - I'm at work atm), when I used the Age 70 estimate for social security (delay as long as possible, which is what Mike Piper's calculator recommends I do). But if i changed it to the age 67 estimate (" full retirement age") the warnings dropped off. Doing so only raised my recommended monthly savings by a modest sum. So if I'm doing as recommended by VPW, I take it then that I should use the age 67 estimate since it doesn't have the warning messages? What would longinvest do? Thanks!
by azanon
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)
Replies: 230
Views: 20572

Re: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)

You'd probably get the most helpful results if you gave the number that really mattered - what's your liquid net worth and cash flow? That'd make answering this quite a bit easier. I was trying to approach it differently in the hopes of getting more useful data. If I had said, I have $XXMM then I suspect the replies would have been more along the lines of "yes" or "no" as opposed to specific number cutoffs. I guess I could see that, but just saying it might save a lot of time if you had a figure either well above or below where it becomes a discussion. Just pulling this out of the air, but (for the 3M house) if you're under 10M liquid I'd' say fairly hard no, and above, ole... 20M, pretty easy to do it. No reason for a ...
by azanon
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)
Replies: 230
Views: 20572

Re: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)

You'd probably get the most helpful results if you gave the number that really mattered - what's your liquid net worth and cash flow? That'd make answering this quite a bit easier. I was trying to approach it differently in the hopes of getting more useful data. If I had said, I have $XXMM then I suspect the replies would have been more along the lines of "yes" or "no" as opposed to specific number cutoffs. I guess I could see that, but just saying it might save a lot of time if you had a figure either well above or below where it becomes a discussion. Just pulling this out of the air, but (for the 3M house) if you're under 10M liquid I'd' say fairly hard no, and above, ole... 20M, pretty easy to do it. No reason for a ...
by azanon
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)
Replies: 230
Views: 20572

Re: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)

Here is my answer. I am assuming no income other than net worth. 3 million house economically costs 5% a year. That is what I think the true cost is of equity, debt, insurance, maintenance and capex. So that’s a $150k annual nut. I don’t think housing should exceed 30% of annual budget, so I must have an annual budget of $500k a year. In order to spend 500k, it must be capped at 3% of my net worth. So that means $16.6mm net worth. Do the same math for 5mm house gets me to $27.8mm net worth. Note, I am defining net worth here an investable assets and thus not including any equity I might use to buy said house. Now if you have stable recurring income stream away from spending your net worth, then I wound accept a lower net worth threshold. T...
by azanon
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)
Replies: 230
Views: 20572

Re: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)

You'd probably get the most helpful results if you gave the number that really mattered - what's your liquid net worth and cash flow? That'd make answering this quite a bit easier.
by azanon
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)
Replies: 230
Views: 20572

Re: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)

stostech wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:07 pm I was hoping people could treat the assumptions as actual assumptions

assumption : a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.
I looked at those again - I'd probably want 4x liquid net worth for the house. ex. 3M home, 12M liquid net worth minimum. So 9M left after you're done. I have 6x liquid net worth of my house, but i'm in a very low housing cost area (Little Rock, AR).
by azanon
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)
Replies: 230
Views: 20572

Re: At what net worth would you to be comfortable purchasing $3MM house? (given certain assumptions)

For a 3M house, at least 600K for the down payment (to avoid PMI), and a (very stable) net income or cash flow that's at least 4x what it would take to make payments on the rest financed at no more than 15 years.

Since the home is so expensive, you want to stick to this fairly strict rule for financing.

That said, as someone of more modest means, I would tend to think if you're considering buying houses that are more than 2M, ideally you're just dropping cash for it. I couldn't even begin to buy something like that, but even I with more modest means, has a cash only mindset from this point forward for anything that I want.
by azanon
Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 2256
Views: 605710

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

longinvest wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:36 am I have uploaded version 2.2 of the VPW Accumulation And Retirement Worksheet.

Here are the main changes:
  • Add clear warning to alert the user when there's a lower than 100% Funding Ratio in the "Calculations for 2021" or "Calculations After Loss" sections.
  • Use pension names instead of generic names in bottom sections.
As usual, comments are welcome.

Enjoy!
I also want to express my thanks, longinvest. I was one of those that requested the temporary income source be added, and now I can accurately estimate my retirement income since V 2.1. So a huge thank you to you. So much appreciated!
by azanon
Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: G-Sync v. G-Sync Compatible
Replies: 7
Views: 726

Re: G-Sync v. G-Sync Compatible

If at all possible, I'd recommend trying to swing for one that's rated "G-Sync" or higher (I have bought 3 so far). Ones that are Gsync or higher have actual nvidia chips/boards in them providing hardware gsync support. From what I recall reading in the past, a full blown gsync monitor will maintain the illusion of smooth gaming video at lower framerates than a gsync compatible one. (To my eye, gaming looks very smooth as low as 40 FPS on hardware gsync, where nongsync the illusion for me breaks around 60 FPS). When Gsync was originally launched, there was actually one model of monitor (I forget which) that could be manually upgraded with one of the aforementioned gsync boards from nVidia and I believe at the time, those upgrade m...
by azanon
Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm a true Boglehead, but it's time for me to be reminded... why isn't real estate better?
Replies: 178
Views: 22821

Re: I'm a true Boglehead, but it's time for me to be reminded... why isn't real estate better?

Real Estate is a job/occupation, and stocks/bonds, esp done the boglehead way, is just investing that you can spend maybe 1hr a year on when you rebalance. An actual occupation SHOULD pay more.
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

My contributions in the thread have concluded. I’ll reiterate, buying peace of mind IS worth it. So besides the point of whether you’ll need umbrella or not, if a couple hundred a year is going to give you better sleep, then pay for it - thats a super deal. If you think you need it, then you need it, in other words.
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

I have a NW around $1.2M, unfortunately $800K of it is in my taxable brokerage which does not have any protections against lawsuits etc. Should I be considering getting an umbrella liability policy? I have not really thought about this up until now. What are the major coverage gaps in these policies? How many of you have bought such a policy and is it really essentially for anyone of a certain net worth? I carry umbrella insurance as I have what is known as an “attractive nuisance” (a pond) on my property. There is no way to keep people off my property, but I am liable if someone becomes injured or dies because of it. If someone trespassed on your property and injured or worse on your pond, I really hope that a court of law would not find ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

I have a NW around $1.2M, unfortunately $800K of it is in my taxable brokerage which does not have any protections against lawsuits etc. Should I be considering getting an umbrella liability policy? I have not really thought about this up until now. What are the major coverage gaps in these policies? How many of you have bought such a policy and is it really essentially for anyone of a certain net worth? I carry umbrella insurance as I have what is known as an “attractive nuisance” (a pond) on my property. There is no way to keep people off my property, but I am liable if someone becomes injured or dies because of it. If someone trespassed on your property and injured or worse on your pond, I really hope that a court of law would not find ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

Now don't take that the wrong way, I'm not claiming an umbrella policy is expensive in an of itself, but I am saying it's expensive relative to the chance you'll use it (~0.0000x%). You have underestimated the risk by 5 orders of magnitude. Umbrella insurance has a claim frequency of at least 0.03% a year. Over a lifetime of driving, "the chance you'll use it" is about 2%. Claim frequency and claim severity have been increasing recently due to social inflation. It's probably closer to 4% now. Insurance companies do not file umbrella rate increases every year, as they do for auto insurance, so the numbers are always going to be outdated. Umbrella insurance is not title insurance. Umbrella insurance is a real product that insures a...
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

What I'm saying is, I'm approaching the "problem" from the opposite perspective instead of comparing policy coverage vs. personal net worth. I'm comparing from "0" upward, what is the likelihood that a given a random unfortunate circumstance, that an attorney is going to attempt to go beyond an umbrella minimum insurance policy level, regardless of how much money you have. Rounded off, that chance is zero. Now does that mean I deny that no one dies by shark attack, to use an analogy. No I don't deny that. But I REALLY like my odds when I tell anyone either in person or on this forum that THEY won't die by a shark attack. Before someone buys the policy, at least plug in your annual cost for the policy and use a calculato...
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

OP - probably not, provided you have healthy limits set on all of your primary insurance policies (like auto). In almost all cases, in a worst case scenario, an attorney would probably just try to go after whatever your main policy limit is. I think anyone that thinks this is worth it should be playing the lottery too, since the chance of winning it and actually using an umbrella policy in a court judgement are roughly equivalent. Don't anyone get me wrong - I'm actually boglehead and VERY low risk kind of person. But that should never been confused with an obsession for absolutely zero risk. Similar to retirement plans that aim for absolutely zero risk, the cost of getting that last percent or two of risk away is exponential. Now don't ta...
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

I am saying it's expensive relative to the chance you'll use it (~0.0000x%). At an average of ~$200/year per $1,000,000 of coverage. Assuming a floor of $1/year, where is your "expensive" line? Would $100/year be too expensive? $50/year? In Home/Auto policies, you pay a lot more per $1 of liability coverage, so keeping those policies to the minimum allowed by the umbrella policy and then adding the umbrella policy is a much more cost effective approach. For example having $300,000 auto liability and $1,000,000 umbrella is either equal or less than $500,000 auto liability and $0 umbrella. Not to mention the umbrella also covers house, whereas the extra auto liability does not. Thanks for bringing this price issue up. Yeah for this...
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

I am saying it's expensive relative to the chance you'll use it (~0.0000x%). At an average of ~$200/year per $1,000,000 of coverage. Assuming a floor of $1/year, where is your "expensive" line? Would $100/year be too expensive? $50/year? In Home/Auto policies, you pay a lot more per $1 of liability coverage, so keeping those policies to the minimum allowed by the umbrella policy and then adding the umbrella policy is a much more cost effective approach. For example having $300,000 auto liability and $1,000,000 umbrella is either equal or less than $500,000 auto liability and $0 umbrella. Not to mention the umbrella also covers house, whereas the extra auto liability does not. Thanks for bringing this price issue up. Yeah for this...
by azanon
Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?
Replies: 135
Views: 45317

Re: Umbrella liability - is it necessary?

OP - probably not, provided you have healthy limits set on all of your primary insurance policies (like auto). In almost all cases, in a worst case scenario, an attorney would probably just try to go after whatever your main policy limit is. I think anyone that thinks this is worth it should be playing the lottery too, since the chance of winning it and actually using an umbrella policy in a court judgement are roughly equivalent. Don't anyone get me wrong - I'm actually boglehead and VERY low risk kind of person. But that should never been confused with an obsession for absolutely zero risk. Similar to retirement plans that aim for absolutely zero risk, the cost of getting that last percent or two of risk away is exponential. Now don't tak...
by azanon
Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ Subscription at $4/month
Replies: 48
Views: 6102

Re: WSJ Subscription at $4/month

My one year subscription was scheduled to renew in two weeks. I went ahead and called to cancel. On hold for thirty minutes. And the retention specialist continually enhanced the offer, eventually coming down to 6 additional months at $4 per month. I told him no one final time and he cancelled the subscription. I did provide feedback that had the company allowed online cancellation, I would have taken the Journal on that renewal. WSJ has much to learn from Netflix, Zappos, and Amazon on reducing friction and consumer pain points. I totally agree with this. I have a really high bar for any service that doesn't allow online cancelling. Just an example, I use Xfinity for internet, and they require you to call to cancel, but I have no reasonab...
by azanon
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Observation
Replies: 67
Views: 3470

Re: Risk Observation

Volatility is far from synonymous with risk, but the two usually go together I made a "tweet" just a few days ago, something to the effect of admitting that they're not equivalents, but the conservative investor should act as if they are. And if one can do that, then it becomes very challenging to make a case for a "sub-optimal" portfolio in your personal life, given how long the stock market can potentially drop and stay low for years, if not decades. To be clear, not impossible (to make a case) for an intentionally sub-optimal (risk adjusted) portfolio, but very difficult. As I summarized above, I think in general those "cases" are either ... very young, or ultra wealthy. That's about it. Again, just my view...
by azanon
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Observation
Replies: 67
Views: 3470

Re: Risk Observation

Volatility is far from synonymous with risk, but the two usually go together I made a "tweet" just a few days ago, something to the effect of admitting that they're not equivalents, but the conservative investor should act as if they are. And if one can do that, then it becomes very challenging to make a case for a "sub-optimal" portfolio in your personal life, given how long the stock market can potentially drop and stay low for years, if not decades. To be clear, not impossible (to make a case) for an intentionally sub-optimal (risk adjusted) portfolio, but very difficult. As I summarized above, I think in general those "cases" are either ... very young, or ultra wealthy. That's about it. Again, just my view...
by azanon
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Observation
Replies: 67
Views: 3470

Re: Risk Observation

Volatility is far from synonymous with risk, but the two usually go together I made a "tweet" just a few days ago, something to the effect of admitting that they're not equivalents, but the conservative investor should act as if they are. And if one can do that, then it becomes very challenging to make a case for a "sub-optimal" portfolio in your personal life, given how long the stock market can potentially drop and stay low for years, if not decades. To be clear, not impossible (to make a case) for an intentionally sub-optimal (risk adjusted) portfolio, but very difficult. As I summarized above, I think in general those "cases" are either ... very young, or ultra wealthy. That's about it. Again, just my view.
by azanon
Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Observation
Replies: 67
Views: 3470

Re: Risk Observation

Another example is that vol drops your portfolio by 50% and doesn’t recover for 5 years. If mitigation efforts don’t allow for adjustment, then you are in trouble. So an investor in this scenario would require bonds because vol over time is unmitigated and leads to sequence risk. All of this needs to be measured against: 1: the risk of not building enough wealth 2: the risk of failing to outpace inflation There's always the reverse POV argument. Honestly, the first question that comes in my mind to someone that says they can easily "mitigate" a 50% loss in the market is,.... why are they taking the risk in the first place then? If you're that far ahead - congratulations, you won. Stop playing and hold a "minimum variance&quo...
by azanon
Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: with assets so overvalued, is it better to go all in with a lump sum of money or dollar cost average over time?
Replies: 69
Views: 6139

Re: with assets so overvalued, is it better to go all in with a lump sum of money or dollar cost average over time?

I just did a forum search for "stocks overvalued". On the first five pages of results, there were hits from every every year from 2014 through 2021. :twisted: It's hard to believe irrational exuberance can last that long, but alas, it has. If you play roulette at a casino, you can indeed hit your color 8 times in a row, but it'll never mathematically mean that the house is making a bad bet against you, or that you made a good bet playing roulette in the first place. So I don't want to assume what your point was, but I hope it wasn't that because the market went up from 2014 to 2021, that it automatically means that those investors were right? (US) Stocks went from ~ 25x 10yr earnings in 2014 to about 39 now, where the historical ...
by azanon
Fri Oct 29, 2021 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 290
Views: 28003

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Shorter term treasuries, if i had to pick? With the exception of maybe foreign stock or deep value US, I view most of the major securities as widely overvalued and I’m currently positioned defensively, just as Jack Bogle did in the late 90s.

When will I load back up? Approximately when the majority of people view stocks and other speculative investments (eg. Bitcoin) as way too risky, as they have many times in the past.
by azanon
Wed Oct 27, 2021 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Post military planning: Best US city…in 5-10 years?
Replies: 36
Views: 5436

Re: Post military planning: Best US city…in 5-10 years?

If you've got the ability to back up your self-assessment and expectations, you must be one amazing person. Certainly no run-of-the-mill Lt. Col. Why not just stay and earn General+ instead? I'm assuming you could go that high if your assessment is spot on.

Signed, lowly GS-13 Federal employee
by azanon
Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Very low mileage, used 2021 Tesla Model Y
Replies: 10
Views: 1536

Re: Very low mileage, used 2021 Tesla Model Y

No way I'd buy a really low mileage "used" 2021. No matter what they said, I'd be suspicious that something's wrong with it. Also, costwise, if anyone that's close to being able to buy a new car, just buy the new car. Re: having to wait 6 months - so what, just wait it out. But I'm 50 so 6 months goes by in a flash for me these days.
by azanon
Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The VPW Accumulation Worksheet
Replies: 109
Views: 18701

Re: The Variable Savings Rate (VSR) -- an accumulation-time prelude to VPW

SnowBog wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:03 pmThe way I look at this is making sure we save at least the recommended amount. Anything extra means less we need to save later and/or more flexibility to retire early.
That's the way I look at it and use it.

Don't get me wrong - I'm super jealous of the person that can save just enough, not a dollar more, and know that nothing will go wrong with messing up their plan to retire on a specific year instead of being forced to do so sooner. Granted, it can also be a bad thing to be that person because they can't really retire sooner if they changed their mind since they saved... just enough, and not any more.
by azanon
Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion
Replies: 872
Views: 234968

Re: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion

burritoLover wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:44 am
Stubbie wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:32 am
burritoLover wrote: Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:28 am one-fund portfolios in taxable can be troublesome - some can spit off some huge capital gains - like some Vanguard TDFs at over a $1/share recently. That's a killer tax drag for a large portfolio.
I use VTMFX, Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares in my taxable account for this reason. Great option if wanting to use one fund in taxable.
Yeah, but that's tilting you towards growth stocks. Unless you can balance it the other way in your tax advantaged account - but typically, in a 401k, value options suck.
Which, if Stubbie has been doing since 2009 (tilting growth), he's been thanking his lucky stars. I haven't forgotten though - I do still remember way back when that was a bad thing.
by azanon
Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco rotisserie chicken
Replies: 271
Views: 55331

Re: Costco rotisserie chicken

I drove 5k miles a year before the pandemic. Less than half that now since I remote work. Costco isn’t for everyone, in translation. I drove about 8K miles before pandemic, and now about 4K miles. A good chunk of those miles are the weekly roundtrip Costco runs. But I don't use any gas for them, since it's within the battery electric range of my Volt. I still keep my Citi Costco VISA because of the 2 year extended warranty, but rarely use it at Costco. If you don't mind, clarify your point. Here's where I'm at now: You just gave a reason why you don't need Costco's cheap gas, and you pointed out the extended warranty benefit of that credit card, all the while extended warranties are as common as rain for tons of other credit cards, includi...
by azanon
Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars -- When and Why Did You Switch from Economy/Practicality to Luxury?
Replies: 333
Views: 34914

Re: Cars -- When and Why Did You Switch from Economy/Practicality to Luxury?

My wife and I have went up in spending on autos as our salaries grew and we could comfortably afford doing so. But I define that the same way as a typical boglehead would, which means that I can easily buy whatever car I'm getting with cash paid in full.

But I'm not one of those either afraid to spend money nor am I trying to enter the contest to be the richest in the graveyard. As I make, and save more, I'm probably going to spend more, but in a conservative fashion. And i'll probably use a mild draw into principle method in retirement, so I'll buy whatever doing so buys me.
by azanon
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short- and longer-term effects of rising interest rates on a bond fund
Replies: 109
Views: 38230

Re: Short- and longer-term effects of rising interest rates on a bond fund

I liked the way Bill McNabb of Vanguard used to put it - if your holding period is going to be longer than your bond duration, you actually WANT rates to go up as that bond holder. Simply worded, and quickly debunks the way too common myth that rising rates is always a bad thing if you own bonds. Yeah, the naïve expectation is that rising interest rates should be good for bond holders, and the naïve expectation actually is broadly correct. But it's important to understand the short-term effect as well, and it a) catches peoples' attention because it's so seemingly paradoxical, b) gets undue attention because I suspect much of Wall Street is focussing on short-term effects, and c) is a stick that bond-haters use to beat bonds with. You will...
by azanon
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short- and longer-term effects of rising interest rates on a bond fund
Replies: 109
Views: 38230

Re: Short- and longer-term effects of rising interest rates on a bond fund

I liked the way Bill McNabb of Vanguard used to put it - if your holding period is going to be longer than your bond duration, you actually WANT rates to go up as that bond holder. Simply worded, and quickly debunks the way too common myth that rising rates is always a bad thing if you own bonds.
by azanon
Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco rotisserie chicken
Replies: 271
Views: 55331

Re: Costco rotisserie chicken

I just get the ~ $7 ones (I think that's what they cost) at Kroger, and they usually have a choice of hot ones, or cold ones for reheating. Yeah that's 2 dollars more, but I personally have an issue with a business model (e.g. Costco's) that has you go in the hole some $50-60 dollars, then you're emotionally manipulated into trying to dig out of that hole by probably buying things you don't need in some cases. I know I'm susceptible to that so I don't play that game. YMMV Obviously any good BH can avoid being emotionally manipulated! We always compare prices before buying at Costco. We also actually pay $120 for the "Executive" membership to get 2% cash back on all purchases, and we buy enough that it more than pays for itself. I...
by azanon
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Warriors games - what options work for you?
Replies: 8
Views: 923

Re: Streaming Warriors games - what options work for you?

interwebopinion wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:59 pm
azanon wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:57 pm Any particular reason you're avoiding Comcast? I use them, and the only thing I have to admit isn't super great is the price. But my internet is 934mb down, 41mb up with 14ms latency.
Two negative experiences, though to be fair it was many years ago. Also, the internet bandwidth is shared across multiple customers, not dedicated.
Yeah I've always heard "cable" internet technology is a finite pool of bandwidth that is shared. But in my particular service area, they must have so much overhead that no matter when I speed test, I can never expose that finite bandwidth. I get lower 900s regardless.
by azanon
Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Warriors games - what options work for you?
Replies: 8
Views: 923

Re: Streaming Warriors games - what options work for you?

Any particular reason you're avoiding Comcast? I use them, and the only thing I have to admit isn't super great is the price. But my internet is 934mb down, 41mb up with 14ms latency.
by azanon
Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did I get a good deal on tires?
Replies: 143
Views: 9921

Re: Did I get a good deal on tires?

Never heard of Barum Bravuris. Name brands like Michelin is more expensive. They achieve the same job. Don't be disingenuous to yourself though by convincing yourself they're of the same quality and perform equally to a Michelin. Though there are certainly exceptions, generally speaking, the tire world is the same as most products - you get what you pay for. Only other tier 1 brands can sometimes achieve parity to them. Personal opinion - I think it's the worst area of a car to try to save money because that's what connects you to the road. In general I agree with you. I think if you live in a state where you can drive on summer tires year round its not an unreasonable choice. Compounds and tread design are simpler for summer tires, less t...
by azanon
Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco rotisserie chicken
Replies: 271
Views: 55331

Re: Costco rotisserie chicken

Teague wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:44 pm
azanon wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:30 pm
For you maybe. My cash back credit cards don't work at those kinds of gas stations, and I only use Top Tier* gas anyway. (* That gas is cheaper for a reason :-) )
Costco fuel is Top Tier certified.

Costco's (free) Visa card features very robust cash-back, particularly on gasoline:
4% cash back on eligible gas for the first $7,000 per year and then 1% thereafter
3% cash back on restaurants and eligible travel purchases
2% cash back on all other purchases from Costco and Costco.com
1% cash back on all other purchases.
I drove 5k miles a year before the pandemic. Less than half that now since I remote work. Costco isn’t for everyone, in translation.
by azanon
Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did I get a good deal on tires?
Replies: 143
Views: 9921

Re: Did I get a good deal on tires?

Vanguard User wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:08 pm
bob60014 wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:04 pm Never heard of Barum Bravuris.
Name brands like Michelin is more expensive. They achieve the same job.
Don't be disingenuous to yourself though by convincing yourself they're of the same quality and perform equally to a Michelin. Though there are certainly exceptions, generally speaking, the tire world is the same as most products - you get what you pay for. Only other tier 1 brands can sometimes achieve parity to them.

Personal opinion - I think it's the worst area of a car to try to save money because that's what connects you to the road.