Search found 1883 matches

by azanon
Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2078

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

Interesting explanation Nisiprius, thanks for that. I think I subconsciously want to believe a large majority of the population has a lot of the same common sense reasoning that serves me so well, but maybe I'm not being realistic about that.
by azanon
Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2078

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

Yes. To say certain factor has provided a risk premium is perfectly fine. To say this factor provides a premium is definitive meaning it ALWYS provides a premium. That cannot be known. Are there really that many people confusing that distinction? The same could be said for just stocks in general to...
by azanon
Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2078

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

Yes. To say certain factor has provided a risk premium is perfectly fine. To say this factor provides a premium is definitive meaning it ALWYS provides a premium. That cannot be known. Are there really that many people confusing that distinction? The same could be said for just stocks in general to...
by azanon
Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2078

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

Yes. To say certain factor has provided a risk premium is perfectly fine. To say this factor provides a premium is definitive meaning it ALWYS provides a premium. That cannot be known. Are there really that many people confusing that distinction? The same could be said for just stocks in general to...
by azanon
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

Yes, you and I agree that the Vanguard asset class recommendations are too stock heavy - and I would add that virtually every one of these calculators are everywhere else too. That's recency bias at work. I don't see that changing until we have a longer, more drawn out bear market, like from 68' to...
by azanon
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4994

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Yes, I like commodities now. My portfolio looks something like this: 20% gold 15% crude oil (via long-dated futures) 15% emerging markets equities 10% non-US developed markets equities 25% long term bonds 15% cash Reminds me a bit of my Improved Dalio/Robbins Portfolio in another thread (which I do...
by azanon
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

Right. When REITs were all the rage (even look at this board c. 2007) and people were clamoring for them to add that asset class, the TSP held fast against that fad. IMO the glide path really had to change. I'm relatively risk-averse, but the L funds went way beyond what I'd ever want in bond % nea...
by azanon
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

If one's allocation changes, .... even slightly, then we know one thing for absolute certain; They did not stay the course at the exact moment the change was made. And, worse, if they changed it because they think more of x asset class is now better in current investing climate, that's called marke...
by azanon
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

I wonder when the next change will be? Market timers should be so excited about this, that the TSP is always going to try to remain hip and viable to whatever's popular in a given year. The TSP is hip. You must be joking. They take forever to do anything. In order to do a withdrawal, you must eithe...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

I wonder when the next change will be? Market timers should be so excited about this, that the TSP is always going to try to remain hip and viable to whatever's popular in a given year. The TSP is hip. You must be joking. They take forever to do anything. In order to do a withdrawal, you must eithe...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

Refocusing to the original topic, I thought I'd post this taken directly from TSP.gov, because I found the summary to be clearer that the OP link: "Changes coming to the Lifecycle (L) Funds — (September 18, 2018) The TSP is planning adjustments to the L Funds in an effort to improve outcomes for par...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

I wonder when the next change will be? Market timers should be so excited about this, that the TSP is always going to try to remain hip and viable to whatever's popular in a given year. The TSP is hip. You must be joking. They take forever to do anything. In order to do a withdrawal, you must eithe...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

If one's allocation changes, .... even slightly, then we know one thing for absolute certain; They did not stay the course at the exact moment the change was made. And, worse, if they changed it because they think more of x asset class is now better in current investing climate, that's called marke...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

I wonder when the next change will be? Market timers should be so excited about this, that the TSP is always going to try to remain hip and viable to whatever's popular in a given year. To be fair, I I think the change to include developing markets in the I fund was a great and prudent idea, not ju...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

I wonder when the next change will be? Market timers should be so excited about this, that the TSP is always going to try to remain hip and viable to whatever's popular in a given year.
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

An excellent point, and one of my biggest beefs with "buy-and-hold" balanced funds. Virtually none of them stay the course. They're constantly being tweaked. VG does it too with Lifestrategy. Personally I view these improvements as a feature, not a bug. I was referencing the base tenants of Boglehe...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

I continue to be amazed by how actively managed TDFs are. An excellent point, and one of my biggest beefs with "buy-and-hold" balanced funds. Virtually none of them stay the course. They're constantly being tweaked. VG does it too with Lifestrategy. If one plans to buy-and-hold for a long time - sa...
by azanon
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2462

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

Another sign this bull market is nearing it's end. We still have a bit to go probably, because my office-mates aren't daytrading yet like they were in 97-99'. On point, so I wonder if that means that those funds already below the target path (take the L-Income fund for instance), will gradually rise...
by azanon
Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?
Replies: 78
Views: 6768

Re: Is there such thing as saving TOO much?

In most cases, I would say yes, unless one have a defined purpose for the extra large savings. I know people who died with millions (and not prematurely, at an old age), where family members that inherited the money were not even remotely deserving of it. If you want to earn and save a lot of money,...
by azanon
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3811

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

Maybe you're just smarter than I am, which might explain why you're able to post in this particular thread in the first place. :mrgreen: OK, I think I understand some of that, haha. Anyway, I have nothing further to add to the thread.
by azanon
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4361

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

The alternative to factor investing, though, is proportionally owning more of what has done best in the past (aka Market-Cap weighted index, like S&P 500 or Total Stock market). So from a certain POV, anything you do is active. Since I'm forced to choose, I don't want to take the choice of owing pro...
by azanon
Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3811

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

A 50/50 portfolio is very strongly risk-weighted towards stocks, and is a portfolio favoring economic prosperity, given how much more risky stocks are in comparison to bonds. That's one reason why the portfolio that tends to hit the highest Sharpe ratio is more in the 20-30% equity neighborhood. We...
by azanon
Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3811

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

I am surprised by the responses..... At 64YO also at 50/50. With inflation concerns between 64 and 100YO, just can't see tapering to 20-25% as Bogelhead convention has implied. You're surprised? We're almost 10 years into a US bull market. If a nasty bear comes along, that has losses as high as 07-...
by azanon
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4982

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

My only complaint with his latest book, Big Debt Crisis, and discussion on the topic, is that I haven't heard him give us any sort of actionable advice. I tried to read the "Big Debt Crisis" and it quickly became too much for me - (I don't work in the finance industry). I want to ask him what Tony R...
by azanon
Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 192
Views: 11952

Re: iPhone XS Max

So I'm going to get the wifey an Xr - so any comments on memory recommendations? I see the cheapest one is 64mb, but for $49 more I can get 128mb. Also, what's all this about most people buy with rebates. Really? I thought nowadays, most carriers require you to buy the phone outright (either in cas...
by azanon
Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 192
Views: 11952

Re: iPhone XS Max

So I'm going to get the wifey an Xr - so any comments on memory recommendations? I see the cheapest one is 64mb, but for $49 more I can get 128mb. Also, what's all this about most people buy with rebates. Really? I thought nowadays, most carriers require you to buy the phone outright (either in cash...
by azanon
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4982

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

One other defense for Ray - he's a student of history and is well known for his analysis of debt cycles (there's a youtube on this, in addition to his recent book). I don't agree that it's non-boglehead to try to study and learn from history, and take that into consideration with your investing. Tha...
by azanon
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4982

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

We're not reading this the same way, or interpreting this the same way. I looked for where Dalio said not to buy US bonds, and I just can't find it. Now I can find his "All-Seasons" Portfolio that he gave to Anthony Robbins not too long ago that suggested a whopping 55% allocation to US treasury bo...
by azanon
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4982

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

We're not reading this the same way, or interpreting this the same way. I looked for where Dalio said not to buy US bonds, and I just can't find it. Now I can find his "All-Seasons" Portfolio that he gave to Anthony Robbins not too long ago that suggested a whopping 55% allocation to US treasury (in...
by azanon
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Jack Bogle: Investors should 'always be in' the stock market"
Replies: 8
Views: 2687

Re: "Jack Bogle: Investors should 'always be in' the stock market"

I "should have" really bought a lot more stock funds when my investments dropped in 2008 or so. I didn't back up the truck and buy more because they were on sale but I didn't make the mistake mentioned in the article about dumping stocks when they were significantly down. They have roared back with...
by azanon
Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 192
Views: 11952

Re: iPhone XS Max

They're the most valuable company on the planet for a reason! $1100 for a smart phone is just ludicrous for a lot of people. That's MacBook territory. I'm interested to see if the "cheapo" version (iPhone Xr: $750) sells better. Lots of consumer psychology in how to choose. I think for quite a few,...
by azanon
Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 192
Views: 11952

Re: iPhone XS Max

They're the most valuable company on the planet for a reason! $1100 for a smart phone is just ludicrous for a lot of people. That's MacBook territory. I'm interested to see if the "cheapo" version (iPhone Xr: $750) sells better. Lots of consumer psychology in how to choose. I think for quite a few,...
by azanon
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else not save for cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 9993

Re: Anyone else not save for cars?

The last time I bought one (~ 6 years ago), I actually just wrote a regular personal check for 31K at their desk. I noticed they just took it and eventually handed me the keys. I eventually was tempted to ask, "Aren't you going to call the bank and make sure it's good?". The salesman just said he k...
by azanon
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else not save for cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 9993

Re: Anyone else not save for cars?

Just bought a new to me car today, and the sales rep looked confused when I asked for wire instructions. I saved up for it, and dumped my high mileage vehicle before it was completely worthless. I hate payments, and my savings for it doubles as my car maintainence account. I never worry about repai...
by azanon
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else not save for cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 9993

Re: Anyone else not save for cars?

Just bought a new to me car today, and the sales rep looked confused when I asked for wire instructions. I saved up for it, and dumped my high mileage vehicle before it was completely worthless. I hate payments, and my savings for it doubles as my car maintainence account. I never worry about repai...
by azanon
Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else not save for cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 9993

Re: Anyone else not save for cars?

I save for cars, due to the following rationale (two examples): 1. My current car is worth ~ 15K. If a reputable bank offered to give me a "car equity loan" at 1.5% for 5 years on the 15K, i wouldn't hand them my title and take the deal, and then presumably invest the money (effectively on margin?!?...
by azanon
Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Jack Bogle Book!
Replies: 40
Views: 5558

Re: New Jack Bogle Book!

Stay the course-except bonds. They are down this year and thus are no good. :wink: And also unless valuations get really out of wack like they did in the late 90s according to the Gordon Equation that "you" probably don't understand, then sell most of your stock if that happens. But besides all tha...
by azanon
Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Jack Bogle Book!
Replies: 40
Views: 5558

Re: New Jack Bogle Book!

The title" Stay the course" speaks for itself, yet all I see in on this Forum are numerous recent posts about getting rid of International or replacing TBM with CDs or MM funds because of a temporary downturn. Stay the course-except international Buy the haystack-except international Stay the cours...
by azanon
Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Jack Bogle Book!
Replies: 40
Views: 5558

Re: New Jack Bogle Book!

The title" Stay the course" speaks for itself, yet all I see in on this Forum are numerous recent posts about getting rid of International or replacing TBM with CDs or MM funds because of a temporary downturn. Stay the course-except international Buy the haystack-except international Stay the cours...
by azanon
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11297

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

It depends on how you define "risky." If you define it in terms of selling your investment for less than you paid for it, then history is clear that the longer you hold stocks, the less likely that is to happen. If you define it in terms of volatility, that does not go down over time. Rephrased, th...
by azanon
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11297

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

If I had to pick one, it would be the notion that stocks are less risky the longer an investor plans to hold them. For me, that one rises to the top because a lot of major financial decisions (e.g. portfolio composition) are often made solely because, or primarily because, one mistakenly believes t...
by azanon
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11297

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

If I had to pick one, it would be the notion that stocks are less risky the longer an investor plans to hold them. For me, that one rises to the top because a lot of major financial decisions (e.g. portfolio composition) are often made solely because, or primarily because, one mistakenly believes t...
by azanon
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11297

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

If I had to pick one, it would be the notion that stocks are less risky the longer an investor plans to hold them. For me, that one rises to the top because a lot of major financial decisions (e.g. portfolio composition) are often made solely because, or primarily because, one mistakenly believes t...
by azanon
Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 11297

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

If I had to pick one, it would be the notion that stocks are less risky the longer an investor plans to hold them. For me, that one rises to the top because a lot of major financial decisions (e.g. portfolio composition) are often made solely because, or primarily because, one mistakenly believes th...
by azanon
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks
Replies: 23
Views: 1414

Re: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks

Why is it that as you increase the proportion of stocks in your portfolio the proportion of increase in returns diminishes? From the 3 Fund Portfolio book (pg 50) average returns 1926 to 2015: 0 stocks/100 bonds: 5.4% to 20 stocks/80 bonds :6.7% or a 1.3% increase in returns 20 stocks/80 bonds: 6.7...
by azanon
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks
Replies: 23
Views: 1414

Re: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks

delamer wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:48 pm
Going from 5.4% to 6.7% is not a 1.3% increase in return.

It is a 24.1% increase in return. (6.7% divided by 5.4%.)
Hopefully it's safe to say we all knew what he meant? :D
by azanon
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks
Replies: 23
Views: 1414

Re: Diminishing Proportion of Returns with Stocks

Why is it that as you increase the proportion of stocks in your portfolio the proportion of increase in returns diminishes? From the 3 Fund Portfolio book (pg 50) average returns 1926 to 2015: 0 stocks/100 bonds: 5.4% to 20 stocks/80 bonds :6.7% or a 1.3% increase in returns 20 stocks/80 bonds: 6.7...
by azanon
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]
Replies: 27
Views: 1473

Re: Vanguard Momentum ETF (VMOM). Any thoughts on it? [UK investor]

I haven't studied how Vanguard is running this momentum ETF, but isn't the basic strategy or concept of momentum investing to get and out based on certain triggers, such as when the line crosses a 10 month moving average? If that's how it works, it should be fairly crash resistant. But if it's long ...
by azanon
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings rate per month???
Replies: 68
Views: 6163

Re: Savings rate per month???

Tbh, I don't find savings rate to be a useful comparison between wildly different income ranges. On the assumption that one minimally avoids lifstyle inflation, which Bogleheads do, it becomes very easy to save a high percentage just by having a high income and not buying a big house (and if you co...
by azanon
Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings rate per month???
Replies: 68
Views: 6163

Re: Savings rate per month???

To some extent, I do believe in consumption smoothing. Excessive saving takes away some of the wonder of compound growth, and potentially squanders all of that hard work you may have done in school to earn that degree that allows you to have a high salary. azanon, Can you please explain what you me...