Search found 1986 matches

by azanon
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volkswagen Reliability
Replies: 48
Views: 2360

Re: Volkswagen Reliability

For those with first hand experience with newer (2010+) Volkswagens, what has your experience been in regards to reliability? I am considering a new Golf GTI and my only reservation is whether it can serve me well for ~10 years or so. I have a 2012 GTI Autobahn I bought new. Nothing has gone wrong ...
by azanon
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 88
Views: 3393

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

typical.investor wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:35 am
Current valuations of min/low vol are too expensive now I think. It doesn’t make sense to me.
I agree with this comment. This is the fund to buy if you're looking for yesterday's winning strategy.
by azanon
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There's an entire generation, or group of young employees who have been working and investing for about 10 years now, many of which probably have a portfolio they have no business owning, but they just don't know it yet. Someone within that range could brag about how easy its' been to hold an all s...
by azanon
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There's an entire generation, or group of young employees who have been working and investing for about 10 years now, many of which probably have a portfolio they have no business owning, but they just don't know it yet. Someone within that range could brag about how easy its' been to hold an all st...
by azanon
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!
Replies: 92
Views: 14856

Re: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!

On the other hand, if you rebalance frequently, or almost continuously, e.g. by holding a fund like Vanguard Balanced Index, you are certain to rebalance near the bottom--but, in fact, the effect of mean reversion is not captured, and, as I was surprised to discover, there is virtually no rebalanci...
by azanon
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 5667

Re: Vanguard Wellesly Income

Any more thoughts would be greatly appreciated. I will update the board in any event after the meeting tomorrow. Thanks Peter The only issue I see has an easy solution. Wellesley has strong US bias (on both bonds and stocks). The solution is the global variant of Wellesley, recently launched. You'l...
by azanon
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5193

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

... Quite frankly, I just like knowing an actual human is at the helm assessing whatever the current situation, such as like the volatile times we're in now. I just can't believe no one has any idea at all about what to do. For one, it's not possible for me to believe that because I can't unlearn m...
by azanon
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5193

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

I'm not sure what "compensates for the arithmetic/geometric issue" means , but arithmetic geometric mean inequality is a theorem, it's an absolute mathematical truth. Yes, of course, but one could change some of the input parameters... Think to the sustained over-performance of Small-Cap Value comp...
by azanon
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5193

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

A "below-mean" skewed return for most stocks is not necessarily a problem for an active manager. In a small portfolio (say under 100 stocks mutual fund), you only really need one or very few "future" "apples, amazons, or googles". The majority of the remaining stocks can be duds. I don't have time t...
by azanon
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5193

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

I'm not sure what "compensates for the arithmetic/geometric issue" means , but arithmetic geometric mean inequality is a theorem, it's an absolute mathematical truth. Yes, of course, but one could change some of the input parameters... Think to the sustained over-performance of Small-Cap Value comp...
by azanon
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5193

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

Just my opinion, but one of Boglehead's strongest viewpoint is the fight against high costs, and should focus much more on that instead of Active vs. Passive. Active just so happens to be mostly "bad" because it's usually (too) expensive. But there are exceptions on both sides of the equation (e.g....
by azanon
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5193

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

Yes, I don't dispute that skill could beat the market. I'm just not using that assumption. I'm not understanding your brief response here, but I do think we're disagreeing, for reasons I've previously stated. In summary, if I'm only paying an extra 10-15 basis points for active management in a fund...
by azanon
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5193

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

The fact that trading is zero-sum doesn't inherently mean it's not possible to identify those on the outperforming end of the scale. And the fact that the average fund underperforms an index should only scare someone if they're mandated to select an average (or worse) active fund. Morningstar publis...
by azanon
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vang Wellesley for Retirement
Replies: 37
Views: 4276

Re: Vang Wellesley for Retirement

I am thinking putting all my 401k assets into Wellesley other then a 4 year spending cash account that I will drip fill from dividends from Wellesley. In years where capital gains are positive I may take some off the table to assist in the cash account. Thoughts ? Good idea, except pick the Global ...
by azanon
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)
Replies: 9
Views: 2371

Re: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)

That's supposed to be a good deal worth making an account decision over? That's 0.175% of 2 Million. My eyebrow would hardly raise.
by azanon
Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 103
Views: 30563

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

The point is, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is remarkably stable and the returns are very acceptable. Pretty darned hard to improve upon. Why it works, I just don't know. Probably part of it is the rebalancing. All my examples were rebalanced once a year. I like some aspects of the Permanent...
by azanon
Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 103
Views: 30563

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Excellent discussion! This website shows the positions held by Bridgewater: https://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/bridgewater-associates-lp-699510 maybe it could give some clues to what products they hold for their all-weather portfolio? I forget the exact rules, but 13-f's have a l...
by azanon
Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 103
Views: 30563

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

hey man just registered to say thank you for all your hard work! This thread was amazing. Woke up today searching for this info. IM not seeming to get your market correlation results when I plug it all into portfolio vizulaizer. Any help in this regard? The generic all weather on the visualizer see...
by azanon
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals
Replies: 89
Views: 6875

Re: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals

Considering very higher net worth individuals will want to create generational wealth to be passed on to several generations down the line, does it make sense for these individuals to go 100% stocks, since in the long run (>40 year duration) 100% stocks almost always wins? Always? They always HAVE ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 17008

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

We'll just post this one more time: https://i.imgur.com/Lfz641C.png So the stock, bond, and bill graph were almost on top of each other for 50 years. Thanks for the confirmation. Now if I can live and invest for 200 years before I retire, and we can be guaranteed the future will equal the past for ...
by azanon
Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 17008

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

At 50% equities, you're going to capture the majority of stock gains, so those portfolios (100% vs. 50%) aren't all that vastly different. Portfolios with that level of equities don't really get enough respect. Try simulating an annual rebalancing of a 50% equities portfolio from 1929 to 1932, and y...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wellesley has been flat for the year (slight decline actually), much like the TSM is likely to be after today. Yes, you're likely to reduce volatility, but you're also likely to reduce upside potential. But that's why it's called personal finance. I hope it works out well for you. If a 10% decline ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Annnnd, another 600+ point down day. Once again for no discernible reason other than market psychology / freaking out at every little perceived thing. Brought to you by the efficient markets! Movement on the basis of...we don't know. :wink: Let's give ourselves some credit though. If you set valuat...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Looks like I picked a bad year to retire. Glad I have the core bills covered with divvys and can ride it out. The only question becomes how long this is going to go on, and how long it will take to get back to any level of sanity. One of my favorite graphs that's updated daily is here (shows long-t...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market? ??? VTI on 1/2/2018: 138.22 VTI 11/20/2018 @12:32: 136.32 Down 1.37% YTD Go to Yahoo Finance and look at the "YTD" return under the performance tab. You're ignoring dividends. The +2.29% is as of COB yesterday...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market? ??? VTI on 1/2/2018: 138.22 VTI 11/20/2018 @12:32: 136.32 Down 1.37% YTD Go to Yahoo Finance and look at the "YTD" return under the performance tab. You're ignoring dividends. The +2.29% is as of COB yesterday...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm hoping for a full 1K down on the DOW today, so I can be entertained by Jim Cramer when I get home. It's so enjoyable watching them all panic on CNBC, and then them running a special 1hr episode on the sell-off after that.
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

DOW futures down 300 points as I post this. Let's get ready for another freefall!
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 55
Views: 6168

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Another round of predictions “We will have low returns going forward for a long time” Sounds like something Bogle said recently, on more than one occasion. I can get a source if its necessary, maybe even a video. More specifically, it comes up every time he discusses the formula he uses (Future Mar...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The global market portfolio (approximated) doesn't even have 50% equities! So it's considered very risk adverse to hold more stocks than the global market does? That tell me the collective wisdom is lacking a little bit. ..... Ok, I won't post on this anymore though, as I want to stay on topic per ...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Actually, I can tolerate equity risk but it's the losing money part that freaks me out. I don't think that word means what you think it means. If CULater is serious (this is the freefall thread after all), then it is time to get some help like from a financial advisor and a serious review of Asset ...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8553
Views: 1673452

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Actually, I can tolerate equity risk but it's the losing money part that freaks me out. I don't think that word means what you think it means. If CULater is serious (this is the freefall thread after all), then it is time to get some help like from a financial advisor and a serious review of Asset ...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Dimensional Fund Advisors - compared
Replies: 11
Views: 1079

Re: DFA Dimensional Fund Advisors - compared

Yea then add the advisor fee to get them. Pass. This. DFA is knocked out of consideration for the vast majority of bogleheads that don't have (free) access via a 401(k). "We're" not going to pay 50-100+bp just to access these. This is Bogleheads.org. Paying ~ 1% in fees is like running a 5K race, b...
by azanon
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6091

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

So you saw the need to point out it is mentioned on our page, but don't see any logic in being asked a follow-up question as to whether you're aware of any expert that endorses it? :confused Yes, that is right. You had ably made that assertion already upthread, and I was not contesting it. Just cor...
by azanon
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6091

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Thanks. You are welcome. Now do you have a name of just one retirement income expert that actually recommends that method to be utilized for retirement income. Ummm, no. Or if there isn't one, name one major financial institution (e.g. Vanguard, Fidelity) that would recommend the constant-dollar wi...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 103
Views: 30563

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Thank you for the continued updates! This was a exciting read for me. I am new here and learning. Thanks for the patience. My question is regarding the allocation breakdown. EMLC is a bond etf correct? I might be missing something but does this mean you have the allocation as: 20% Stocks 65% Bonds ...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6091

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Methodology appears to be flawed, if he is trying to evaluate the "4% Rule." In that case, the annual withdrawal is not 4% of the portfolio value each year; it is 4% of the portfolio value in the first year, which is then maintained each year (and should be adjusted for inflation). Who the heck wou...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6091

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

For these examples I used a simple 4% rule, taking out a flat 4% of the portfolio every single year regardless of the portfolio’s performance or the economic conditions at the time. One of the biggest risks in retirement is inflation because it impacts the purchasing power of your portfolio over ti...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6091

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

For these examples I used a simple 4% rule, taking out a flat 4% of the portfolio every single year regardless of the portfolio’s performance or the economic conditions at the time. One of the biggest risks in retirement is inflation because it impacts the purchasing power of your portfolio over ti...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6091

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

One item he didn't model is the # of retirees that would have stuck with the 60/40 during those worst times. Maybe 1 in 4 people have the stomach to not flinch if their entire income or most of their income depended on the portfolio, they retired, and then immediately saw those drops associated with...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 6091

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

What if you retire without an inadequate floor income composed of SS, Pension, and SPIAs (if necessary)? Then you made a mistake. And if you did that at a market peak,then dust off your resume. Ask Wade Pfau, unless you have a portfolio so large you can live on 2% withdrawals, you need to establish ...
by azanon
Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars similar to Toyota Corolla LE that I should consider for purchase?
Replies: 36
Views: 3878

Re: Cars similar to Toyota Corolla LE that I should consider for purchase?

If you drive the typical 12,000 miles a year then in five years your car will have 160,000 miles on it and it could very well still be going strong then but that is at least somewhat optimistic. In five years my Corolla will be hitting 60,000 miles and the powertrain warranty will just be ending. W...
by azanon
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 136
Views: 11617

Re: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!

Thanks for your contributions here Rick, and congratulations on your new Core-4 Investing site.
by azanon
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??
Replies: 40
Views: 4708

Re: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??

Have this thought now and again. We're planning to walk away in ~ 2 years and this is something I'm trying to come to grips with now. With a 55/45 AA we should should have enough to weather most storms. I think I would still jump (with wobbly knees). What would you do? Better yet, did this happen t...
by azanon
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7322

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Serious comment - I can't help but wonder if the reason LC Growth has been so awesome the past 10 years or so, is because over that period of time is when SC Value, or the rise of factoring, became so popular. I think the (stock) market tries to make the most fools possible out of all of us collecti...
by azanon
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USAA getting out of mutual fund biz
Replies: 39
Views: 5134

Re: USAA getting out of mutual fund biz

columbia wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:58 am
My first IRA was with USAA - and then I learned about the tyranny of fees.
This. Although I do remember making over 100% one year in USAA Aggressive Growth Fund though (late 90s, i forget the exact year).
by azanon
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1657

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

I have to disagree with the above poster. The only bonds I would refer to as being designed for safety almost exclusively are Short-term US treasury bills. Pretty much all other types (basically most of them) also have return as a reason for their purchase to varying, increasing degrees (return exp...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1657

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

I have to disagree with the above poster. The only bonds I would refer to as being designed for safety almost exclusively are Short-term US treasury bills. Pretty much all other types (basically most of them) also have return as a reason for their purchase to varying, increasing degrees (return expe...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1657

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

Fidelity has been promoting the active management of Bond Funds/ETF's. Their position is that that investors can find alpha by taking advantage of the expert analysis of active managers. It is interesting to me that by doing this Fidelity is essentially admitting that active management has NOT retu...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA credit card
Replies: 22
Views: 1719

Re: USAA credit card

Ask yourself a different question: "Is this the best rewards card I can get?" My wager is, "Not even close." Is this always the case? I thought USAA's 2.5% cash back on everything was pretty competitive for those who have it, even if no longer available to new users... That's a good card for genera...